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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived From Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS1981

Multistage classification of multispectral Earth observational data: The design approach

An algorithm is proposed which predicts the optimal features at every node in a binary tree procedure. The algorithm estimates the probability of error by approximating the area under the likelihood ratio function for two classes and taking into account the number of training samples used in estimating each of these two classes. Some results on feature selection techniques, particularly in the presence of a very limited set of training samples, are presented. Results comparing probabilities of error predicted by the proposed algorithm as a function of dimensionality as compared to experimental observations are shown for aircraft and LANDSAT data. Results are obtained for both real and simulated data. Finally, two binary tree examples which use the algorithm are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the procedure.

Bauer, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Data base management system analysis and performance testing with respect to NASA requirements

Several candidate Data Base Management Systems (DBM's) that could support the NASA End-to-End Data System's Integrated Data Base Management System (IDBMS) Project, later rescoped and renamed the Packet Management System (PMS) were evaluated. The candidate DBMS systems which had to run on the Digital Equipment Corporation VAX 11/780 computer system were ORACLE, SEED and RIM. Oracle and RIM are both based on the relational data base model while SEED employs a CODASYL network approach. A single data base application which managed stratospheric temperature profiles was studied. The primary reasons for using this application were an insufficient volume of available PMS-like data, a mandate to use actual rather than simulated data, and the abundance of available temperature profile data.

Martin, E. A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A normal stress subgrid-scale eddy viscosity model in large eddy simulation

The Smagorinsky subgrid-scale eddy viscosity model (SGS-EVM) is commonly used in large eddy simulations (LES) to represent the effects of the unresolved scales on the resolved scales. This model is known to be limited because its constant must be optimized in different flows, and it must be modified with a damping function to account for near-wall effects. The recent dynamic model is designed to overcome these limitations but is compositionally intensive as compared to the traditional SGS-EVM. In a recent study using direct numerical simulation data, Horiuti has shown that these drawbacks are due mainly to the use of an improper velocity scale in the SGS-EVM. He also proposed the use of the subgrid-scale normal stress as a new velocity scale that was inspired by a high-order anisotropic representation model. The testing of Horiuti, however, was conducted using DNS data from a low Reynolds number channel flow simulation. It was felt that further testing at higher Reynolds numbers and also using different flows (other than wall-bounded shear flows) were necessary steps needed to establish the validity of the new model. This is the primary motivation of the present study. The objective is to test the new model using DNS databases of high Reynolds number channel and fully developed turbulent mixing layer flows. The use of both channel (wall-bounded) and mixing layer flows is important for the development of accurate LES models because these two flows encompass many characteristic features of complex turbulent flows.

Horiuti, K.↗
NASA NTRS2020

The GGCMI Phase 2 Experiment: Global Gridded Crop Model Simulations Under Uniform Changes in CO2, Temperature, Water, and Nitrogen Levels (Protocol Version 1.0)

Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Process-based crop models, which represent plant physiological and soil processes, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate and management conditions not sampled in the historical record and new locations to which cultivation may shift. However, process-based crop models differ in many critical details, and their responses to different interacting factors remain only poorly understood. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, an activity of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to provide a systematic parameter sweep focused on climate change factors and their interaction with overall soil fertility, to allow both evaluating model behavior and emulating model responses in impact assessment tools. In this paper we describe the GGCMI Phase 2 experimental protocol and its simulation data archive. A total of 12 crop models simulate five crops with systematic uniform perturbations of historical climate, varying CO2, temperature, water supply, and applied nitrogen (“CTWN”) for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, and a second set of simulations represents a type of adaptation by allowing the adjustment of growing season length. We present some crop yield results to illustrate general characteristics of the simulations and potential uses of the GGCMI Phase 2 archive. For example, in cases without adaptation, modeled yields show robust decreases to warmer temperatures in almost all regions, with a nonlinear dependence that means yields in warmer baseline locations have greater temperature sensitivity. Inter-model uncertainty is qualitatively similar across all the four input dimensions but is largest in high-latitude regions where crops may be grown in the future.

GGCMI↗
NASA NTRS2006

Airborne Turbulence Detection System Certification Tool Set

A methodology and a corresponding set of simulation tools for testing and evaluating turbulence detection sensors has been presented. The tool set is available to industry and the FAA for certification of radar based airborne turbulence detection systems. The tool set consists of simulated data sets representing convectively induced turbulence, an airborne radar simulation system, hazard tables to convert the radar observable to an aircraft load, documentation, a hazard metric "truth" algorithm, and criteria for scoring the predictions. Analysis indicates that flight test data supports spatial buffers for scoring detections. Also, flight data and demonstrations with the tool set suggest the need for a magnitude buffer.

Hamilton, David W.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A stochastic-dynamical approach to the study of the natural variability of the climate

A method, suggested by Leith (1975), which employed stochastic-dynamic forecasts obtained from a general circulation model in such a way as to satisfy the definition of climatic noise, was used to validate assumptions accounting for the effects of external influences in estimating the climatic noise. Two assumptions were investigated: (1) that the weather fluctuations can be represented as a Markov process, and (2) that changing external conditions do not influence the atmosphere's statistical properties on short time scales. The general circulation model's simulation of the daily weather fluctuations was generated by performing integrations with prescribed climatological boundary conditions for random initial atmospheric states, with resulting dynamical forecasts providing an ensemble of simulated data for the autoregressive modeling of weather fluctuations. To estimate the climatic noise from the observational data (consisting of hourly values of sea level pressure and surface temperature at 54 U.S. stations for the month of January for the years 1949-1975) use of the short time-scale assumption is made. The simulated and observed data were found not to be consistent with either white noise or a Markov process of weather fluctuations. Good agreement was found between the results of the hypothetical testing of the simulated and the observed surface temperatures; and only partial support was found for the short time-scale assumption, i.e., for sea level pressure.

Straus, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Data Processing for Atmospheric Phase Interferometers

This paper presents a detailed discussion of calibration procedures used to analyze data recorded from a two-element atmospheric phase interferometer (API) deployed at Goldstone, California. In addition, we describe the data products derived from those measurements that can be used for site intercomparison and atmospheric modeling. Simulated data is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and as a means for validating our procedure. A study of the effect of block size filtering is presented to justify our process for isolating atmospheric fluctuation phenomena from other system-induced effects (e.g., satellite motion, thermal drift). A simulated 24 hr interferometer phase data time series is analyzed to illustrate the step-by-step calibration procedure and desired data products.

Acosta, Roberto J.↗
NASA NTRS1977

The Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Signature Transformation /MLEST/ algorithm

The Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Signature Transformation (MLEST) algorithm is used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of affine transformation. The algorithm has been evaluated for three sets of data: simulated (training and recognition segment pairs), consecutive-day (data gathered from Landsat images), and geographical-extension (large-area crop inventory experiment) data sets. For each set, MLEST signature extension runs were made to determine MLE values and the affine-transformed training segment signatures were used to classify the recognition segments. The classification results were used to estimate wheat proportions at 0 and 1% threshold values.

Thadani, S. G.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of Kalman filter and optimal smoother estimates of spacecraft attitude

Given a valid system model and adequate observability, a Kalman filter will converge toward the true system state with error statistics given by the estimated error covariance matrix. The errors generally do not continue to decrease. Rather, a balance is reached between the gain of information from new measurements and the loss of information during propagation. The errors can be further reduced, however, by a second pass through the data with an optimal smoother. This algorithm obtains the optimally weighted average of forward and backward propagating Kalman filters. It roughly halves the error covariance by including future as well as past measurements in each estimate. This paper investigates whether such benefits actually accrue in the application of an optimal smoother to spacecraft attitude determination. Tests are performed both with actual spacecraft data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) and with simulated data for which the true state vector and noise statistics are exactly known.

Sedlak, J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Radiation Belt Electron Dynamics: Modeling Atmospheric Losses

The first year of work on this project has been completed. This report provides a summary of the progress made and the plan for the coming year. Also included with this report is a preprint of an article that was accepted for publication in Journal of Geophysical Research and describes in detail most of the results from the first year of effort. The goal for the first year was to develop a radiation belt electron model for fitting to data from the SAMPEX and Polar satellites that would provide an empirical description of the electron losses into the upper atmosphere. This was largely accomplished according to the original plan (with one exception being that, for reasons described below, the inclusion of the loss cone electrons in the model was deferred). The main concerns at the start were to accurately represent the balance between pitch angle diffusion and eastward drift that determines the dominant features of the low altitude data, and then to accurately convert the model into simulated data based on the characteristics of the particular electron detectors. Considerable effort was devoted to achieving these ends. Once the model was providing accurate results it was applied to data sets selected from appropriate periods in 1997, 1998, and 1999. For each interval of -30 to 60 days, the model parameters were calculated daily, thus providing good short and long term temporal resolution, and for a range of radial locations from L = 2.7 to 3.9. .

Selesnick, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Friction Stir Weld Restart+Reweld Repair Allowables

A friction stir weld (FSW) repair method has been developed and successfully implemented on Al 2195 plate material for the Space Shuttle External Fuel Tank (ET). The method includes restarting the friction stir weld in the termination hole of the original weld followed by two reweld passes. Room temperature and cryogenic temperature mechanical properties exceeded minimum FSW design strength and compared well with the development data. Simulated service test results also compared closely to historical data for initial FSW, confirming no change to the critical flaw size or inspection requirements for the repaired weld. Testing of VPPA fusion/FSW intersection weld specimens exhibited acceptable strength and exceeded the minimum design value. Porosity, when present at the intersection was on the root side toe of the fusion weld, the "worst case" being 0.7 inch long. While such porosity may be removed by sanding, this "worst case" porosity condition was tested "as is" and demonstrated that porosity did not negatively affect the strength of the intersection weld. Large, 15-inch "wide panels" FSW repair welds were tested to demonstrate strength and evaluate residual stresses using photo stress analysis. All results exceeded design minimums, and photo stress analysis showed no significant stress gradients due to the presence of the restart and multi-pass FSW repair weld.

Clifton, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2013

Usage of Data-Encoded Web Maps with Client Side Color Rendering for Combined Data Access, Visualization and Modeling Purposes

Current approaches to satellite observation data storage and distribution implement separate visualization and data access methodologies which often leads to the need in time consuming data ordering and coding for applications requiring both visual representation as well as data handling and modeling capabilities. We describe an approach we implemented for a data-encoded web map service based on storing numerical data within server map tiles and subsequent client side data manipulation and map color rendering. The approach relies on storing data using the lossless compression Portable Network Graphics (PNG) image data format which is natively supported by web-browsers allowing on-the-fly browser rendering and modification of the map tiles. The method is easy to implement using existing software libraries and has the advantage of easy client side map color modifications, as well as spatial subsetting with physical parameter range filtering. This method is demonstrated for the ASTER-GDEM elevation model and selected MODIS data products and represents an alternative to the currently used storage and data access methods. One additional benefit includes providing multiple levels of averaging due to the need in generating map tiles at varying resolutions for various map magnification levels. We suggest that such merged data and mapping approach may be a viable alternative to existing static storage and data access methods for a wide array of combined simulation, data access and visualization purposes.

Pliutau, Denis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-21838-DND

Correlation relationships between particle microphysical parameters and optical data are investigated. The results show that surface-area concentrations and extinction coefficients are linearly correlated with a correlation coefficient above 0.99 for arbitrary particle size distribution. The correlation relationships that we obtained can be used as constraints in our inversion of optical lidar data. Simulation studies demonstrate a significant stabilization of aerosol microphysical data products if we apply the gradient correlation method (GCM) in our traditional regularization technique.

Alexei Kolgotin↗
NASA NTRS1993

AVIRIS and TIMS data processing and distribution at the land processes distributed active archive center

The U.S. Government has initiated the Global Change Research program, a systematic study of the Earth as a complete system. NASA's contribution of the Global Change Research Program is the Earth Observing System (EOS), a series of orbital sensor platforms and an associated data processing and distribution system. The EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS) is the archiving, production, and distribution system for data collected by the EOS space segment and uses a multilayer architecture for processing, archiving, and distributing EOS data. The first layer consists of the spacecraft ground stations and processing facilities that receive the raw data from the orbiting platforms and then separate the data by individual sensors. The second layer consists of Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAAC) that process, distribute, and archive the sensor data. The third layer consists of a user science processing network. The EOSDIS is being developed in a phased implementation. The initial phase, Version 0, is a prototype of the operational system. Version 0 activities are based upon existing systems and are designed to provide an EOSDIS-like capability for information management and distribution. An important science support task is the creation of simulated data sets for EOS instruments from precursor aircraft or satellite data. The Land Processes DAAC, at the EROS Data Center (EDC), is responsible for archiving and processing EOS precursor data from airborne instruments such as the Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS), the Thematic Mapper Simulator (TMS), and Airborne Visible and Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). AVIRIS, TIMS, and TMS are flown by the NASA-Ames Research Center ARC) on an ER-2. The ER-2 flies at 65000 feet and can carry up to three sensors simultaneously. Most jointly collected data sets are somewhat boresighted and roughly registered. The instrument data are being used to construct data sets that simulate the spectral and spatial characteristics of the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) instrument scheduled to be flown on the first EOS-AM spacecraft. The ASTER is designed to acquire 14 channels of land science data in the visible and near-IR (VNIR), shortwave-IR (SWIR), and thermal-IR (TIR) regions from 0.52 micron to 11.65 micron at high spatial resolutions of 15 m to 90 m. Stereo data will also be acquired in the VNIR region in a single band. The AVIRIS and TMS cover the ASTER VNIR and SWIR bands, and the TIMS covers the TIR bands. Simulated ASTER data sets have been generated over Death Valley, California, Cuprite, Nevada, and the Drum Mountains, Utah using a combination of AVIRIS, TIMS, amd TMS data, and existing digital elevation models (DEM) for the topographic information.

Mah, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Analytic Confusion Matrix Bounds for Fault Detection and Isolation Using a Sum-of-Squared- Residuals Approach

Given a system which can fail in 1 or n different ways, a fault detection and isolation (FDI) algorithm uses sensor data in order to determine which fault is the most likely to have occurred. The effectiveness of an FDI algorithm can be quantified by a confusion matrix, which i ndicates the probability that each fault is isolated given that each fault has occurred. Confusion matrices are often generated with simulation data, particularly for complex systems. In this paper we perform FDI using sums of squares of sensor residuals (SSRs). We assume that the sensor residuals are Gaussian, which gives the SSRs a chi-squared distribution. We then generate analytic lower and upper bounds on the confusion matrix elements. This allows for the generation of optimal sensor sets without numerical simulations. The confusion matrix bound s are verified with simulated aircraft engine data.

Simon, Dan↗
NASA NTRS2002

Piloted Evaluation of a UH-60 Mixer Equivalent Turbulence Simulation Model

A simulation study of a recently developed hover/low speed Mixer Equivalent Turbulence Simulation (METS) model for the UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter was conducted in the NASA Ames Research Center Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS). The experiment was a continuation of previous work to develop a simple, but validated, turbulence model for hovering rotorcraft. To validate the METS model, two experienced test pilots replicated precision hover tasks that had been conducted in an instrumented UH-60 helicopter in turbulence. Objective simulation data were collected for comparison with flight test data, and subjective data were collected that included handling qualities ratings and pilot comments for increasing levels of turbulence. Analyses of the simulation results show good analytic agreement between the METS model and flight test data, with favorable pilot perception of the simulated turbulence. Precision hover tasks were also repeated using the more complex rotating-frame SORBET (Simulation Of Rotor Blade Element Turbulence) model to generate turbulence. Comparisons of the empirically derived METS model with the theoretical SORBET model show good agreement providing validation of the more complex blade element method of simulating turbulence.

Lusardi, Jeff A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Groundwater Recharge Estimated by Land Surface Models: An Evaluation in the Conterminous U.S.

Estimating diffuse recharge of precipitation is fundamental to assessing groundwater sustainability. Diffuse recharge is also the process through which climate and climate change directly affect groundwater. In this study, we evaluated diffuse recharge over the conterminous U.S. simulated by a suite of land surface models (LSMs) that were forced using a common set of meteorological input data. Simulated annual recharge exhibited spatial patterns that were similar among the LSMs, with the highest values in the eastern U.S. and Pacific Northwest. However, the magnitudes of annual recharge varied significantly among the models and were associated with differences in simulated ET, runoff and snow. Evaluation against two independent datasets did not answer the question of whether the ensemble mean performs the best, due to inconsistency between those datasets. The amplitude and timing of seasonal maximum recharge differed among the models, influenced strongly by model physics governing deep soil moisture drainage rates and, in cold regions, snowmelt. Evaluation using in situ soil moisture observations suggested that true recharge peaks 1-3 months later than simulated recharge, indicating systematic biases in simulating deep soil moisture. However, recharge from lateral flows and through preferential flows cannot be inferred from soil moisture data, and the seasonal cycle of simulated groundwater storage actually compared well with in situ groundwater observations. Long-term trends in recharge were not consistently correlated with either precipitation trends or temperature trends. This study highlights the need to employ dynamic flow models in LSMs, among other improvements, to enable more accurate simulation of recharge.

snowmelt↗