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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A KELT–TESS Eclipsing Binary in a Young Triple System Associated with the Local “Stellar String” Theia 301

HD 54236 is a nearby, wide common-proper-motion visual pair that has been previously identified as likely being very young by virtue of strong X-ray emission and lithium absorption. Here, we report the discovery that the brighter member of the wide pair, HD 54236A, is itself an eclipsing binary (EB), comprising two near-equal solar-mass stars on a 2.4 days orbit. It represents a potentially valuable opportunity to expand the number of benchmark-grade EBs at young stellar ages. Using new observations of Ca ii H and K emission and lithium absorption in the wide K-dwarf companion, HD 54236B, we obtain a robust age estimate of 225 ± 50 Myr for the system. This age estimate and Gaia proper motions show HD 54236 is associated with Theia 301, a newly discovered local “stellar string,” which itself may be related to the AB Dor moving group through shared stellar members. Applying this age estimate to AB Dor itself alleviates reported tension between observation and theory that arises for the luminosity of AB Dor C when younger age estimates are used.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Validation of standardized data formats and tools for ground-level particle-based gamma-ray observatories

Context. Ground-based γ-ray astronomy is still a rather young field of research, with strong historical connections to particle physics. This is why most observations are conducted by experiments with proprietary data and analysis software, as is usual in the particle physics field. However, in recent years, this paradigm has been slowly shifting toward the development and use of open-source data formats and tools, driven by upcoming observatories such as the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA). In this context, a community-driven, shared data format (the gamma-astro-data-format, or GADF) and analysis tools such as Gammapy and ctools have been developed. So far, these efforts have been led by the Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescope community, leaving out other types of ground-based γ-ray instruments. Aims. We aim to show that the data from ground particle arrays, such as the High-Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory, are also compatible with the GADF and can thus be fully analyzed using the related tools, in this case, Gammapy. Methods. We reproduced several published HAWC results using Gammapy and data products compliant with GADF standard. We also illustrate the capabilities of the shared format and tools by producing a joint fit of the Crab spectrum including data from six different γ-ray experiments. Results. We find excellent agreement with the reference results, a powerful confirmation of both the published results and the tools involved. Conclusions. The data from particle detector arrays such as the HAWC observatory can be adapted to the GADF and thus analyzed with Gammapy. A common data format and shared analysis tools allow multi-instrument joint analysis and effective data sharing. To emphasize this, a sample of Crab nebula event lists is made public with this paper. Because of the complementary nature of pointing and wide-field instruments, this synergy will be distinctly beneficial for the joint scientific exploitation of future observatories such as the Southern Wide-field Gamma-ray Observatory and CTA.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Self-consumption for energy communities in Spain: A regional analysis under the new legal framework

European climate polices acknowledge the role that energy communities can play in the energy transition. Self-consumption installations shared among those living in the same building are a good example of such energy communities. In this work, a regional analysis of optimal self-consumption installations under the new legal framework recently passed in Spain is performed. Results show that the optimal sizing of the installation leads to economic savings for self-consumers in all the territory, for both options with and without remuneration for energy surplus. A sensitivity analysis on technology costs revealed that batteries still require noticeably cost reductions to be cost-effective in a behind the meter self-consumption environment. In addition, solar compensation mechanisms make batteries less attractive in a scenario of low PV costs, since feeding PV surplus into the grid, yet less efficient, becomes more cost-effective. Furthermore, an improvement for the energy surplus remuneration policy in the context of the current legislation was proposed and analysed. It consists in the inclusion of the economic value of the avoided power losses in the remuneration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Structural adaptation of oxygen tolerance in 4-hydroxybutyrl-CoA dehydratase, a key enzyme of archaeal carbon fixation

Abstract Autotrophic microorganisms that convert inorganic carbon into organic matter were key players in the evolution of life on Earth. As the early atmosphere became oxygenated, microorganisms needed to develop mechanisms for oxygen protection, especially those relying on enzymes containing oxygen-sensitive metal clusters (e.g., Fe-S). Here we investigated how 4-hydroxybutyryl-CoA dehydratase (4HBD) - the key enzyme of the 3-hydroxypropionate/4-hydroxybutyrate (HP/HB) cycle for CO 2 -fixation - adapted as conditions shifted from anoxic to oxic. 4HBD is found in both anaerobic bacteria and aerobic ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA). The oxygen-sensitive bacterial 4HBD and oxygen-tolerant archaeal 4HBD share 59 % amino acid identity. To examine the structural basis of oxygen tolerance in archaeal 4HBD, we determined the atomic resolution structure of the enzyme. Two tunnels providing access to the canonical [4Fe-4S] cluster in oxygen-sensitive bacterial 4HBD were closed with four conserved mutations found in all aerobic AOA and other archaea. Further biochemical experiments and molecular dynamics simulations support our findings that restricting access to the active site is the key to oxygen tolerance, explaining how active site evolution drove a major evolutionary transition. Significance statement Autotrophy (primary production) was the first life strategy on Earth. Before photosynthesis (using solar energy to fix carbon dioxide), life relied on chemical reactions for energy. These chemosynthetic reactions are present in all domains of life, including archaea possessing the most energy-efficient carbon fixation pathway - the 3-hydroxypropionate/4-hydroxybutyrate cycle. This efficiency results from enzyme modifications, including enhanced enzyme stability and catalysis of multiple reactions. We reveal the first structure of aerobic 4-hydroxybutyryl-CoA dehydratase (4HBD) from ammonia-oxidizing archaea. These archaea are among the most abundant organisms on the planet, and their 4HBD active site evolved oxygen tolerance to support aerobic metabolism. This modification can provide further insight into enzyme evolution on early earth, as photosynthesis developed and began oxygenating the atmosphere.

DeMirci, Hasan (ORCID:0000000291355397)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Change-point Detection and Image Segmentation for Time Series of Astrophysical Images

Many astrophysical phenomena are time-varying, in the sense that their intensity, energy spectrum, and/or the spatial distribution of the emission suddenly change. This paper develops a method for modeling a time series of images. Under the assumption that the arrival times of the photons follow a Poisson process, the data are binned into 4D grids of voxels (time, energy band, and x-y coordinates), and viewed as a time series of non-homogeneous Poisson images. The method assumes that at each time point, the corresponding multiband image stack is an unknown 3D piecewise constant function including Poisson noise. It also assumes that all image stacks between any two adjacent change points (in time domain) share the same unknown piecewise constant function. The proposed method is designed to estimate the number and the locations of all of the change points (in time domain), as well as all of the unknown piecewise constant functions between any pairs of the change points. The method applies the minimum description length principle to perform this task. A practical algorithm is also developed to solve the corresponding complicated optimization problem. Simulation experiments and applications to real data sets show that the proposed method enjoys very promising empirical properties. Applications to two real data sets, the XMM observation of a flaring star and an emerging solar coronal loop, illustrate the usage of the proposed method and the scientific insight gained from it.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Developing Residential Energy Usage Baselines and Energy Efficiency Options

FCPC has been a leader in energy conservation not only in the State of Wisconsin, but nationally, as well. In 2016, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ranked FCPC 11th in its Top 30 Local Government List as a result of the extensive measures the Tribe has taken toward its goal of achieving 100% carbon-neutral energy independence. Some of these efforts include the reduction of the Tribal government workweek to four days instead of five, the purchase of renewable energy certificates to more than offset the Tribe’s annual energy consumption, the installation of solar photovoltaic systems, and the completion of energy audits of Tribal government facilities. Until now, FCPC has focused on energy efficiency options for government and enterprise buildings, but it is now time to broaden the scope of energy efficiency to include the Tribe’s residential community. The Tribe’s Energy Working Group has identified the completion of home energy audits as one of its more imminent goals, as formal energy evaluations have yet to be completed on residential dwellings on the FCPC reservation. Tribal leadership is already looking ahead to the anticipated outcome of these energy audits and has taken steps to develop a cost sharing program that will assist Tribal homeowners to implement identified efficiency options as a result of this project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Structural Evolution of Layered Hybrid Lead Iodide Perovskites in Colloidal Dispersions

Controlling the structure of layered hybrid metal halide perovskites, such as the Ruddlesden-Popper (R-P) phases, is challenging because of their tendency to form mixtures of varying composition. Colloidal growth techniques, such as antisolvent precipitation, forms colloidal dispersions with properties that match bulk layered R-P phases, but controlling the composition of these particles remains challenging. Here, we explore the microstructure of particles of R-P phases of methylammonium lead iodide prepared by antisolvent precipitation from ternary mixtures of alkylammonium cations, where one cation can form perovskite phases (CH 3 NH 3 + ) and the other two promote layered structures as spacers (e.g. C 4 H 9 NH 3 + and C 12 H 25 NH 3 + ). We determine that alkylammonium spacers pack with constant methylene density in the R-P interlayer, and exclude interlayer solvent in dispersed colloids, regardless of length or branching. Using this result, we illustrate how the competition between cations that act as spacers between layers, or as grain- terminating ligands, determines the colloidal microstructure of layered R-P crystallites in solution. Optical measurements reveal that quantum well dimensions can be tuned by engineering the ternary cation composition. Transmission synchrotron wide-angle X-ray scattering and small angle neutron scattering reveal changes in the structure of colloids in solvent and after deposition into thin films. In particular, we find that spacers can alloy between R-P layers if they share common steric arrangements, but tend to segregate into polydisperse R-P phases if they do not mix. In conclusion, this study provides a framework to compare the microstructure of colloidal layered perovskites and suggests clear avenues to control phase and colloidal morphology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Influence of Hybridization on the Capacity Value of PV and Battery Resources

Utility-scale systems that combine solar photovoltaic and battery (PV+battery) technologies are growing in popularity on the U.S. bulk power system. The business case for PV+battery systems depends on both their ability to reduce costs and their ability to generate value synergies associated with the provision of energy, capacity, and ancillary services. Capacity value can constitute a significant portion of the value PV+battery hybrids provide to the grid (e.g., through avoided or deferred capacity) and receive through revenues. Throughout this report, we define capacity value as the monetary value of a plant's contribution towards the planning reserve margin, which ultimately depends on market rules and structures. PV+battery hybrids do not always fit into current market structures because of the interactions between the PV and battery components. Unique considerations for the capacity value of PV+battery hybrids include the disparate nature of participation models for PV and battery technologies in existing market rules and the potential influence of a shared interconnection capacity; limitations imposed by a shared inverter; limited ability to charge the battery in advance of capacity events if charging must be sourced from the coupled PV; and challenges or uncertainties associated with co-optimizing the operations of the PV and battery components. Grid operators are currently considering how market structures can be modified to optimally determine the capacity value provided by PV+battery systems, and the rules of how they are integrated into markets are still being written. As with any resource, poorly designed rules could increase the cost of energy and reduce system reliability, while well-designed rules could allow markets to receive the full benefits hybrid systems can offer without overcompensating them for the services they provide. Well-designed rules for PV+battery systems must consider the unique aspects listed above, while leveraging the commonalities with existing resource types. In this report, we summarize the technical capability and market rules that influence the capacity value of PV+battery systems. We further discuss the potential tradeoffs between computational complexity and accuracy for the various ways in which grid operators can credit PV+battery systems for capacity. Finally, we describe markets for capacity, survey current wholesale market rules applying to PV+battery systems, and provide a snapshot of the current regulatory landscape for PV+battery systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

2024 Photovoltaic Inverter Reliability Workshop Summary Report & Proceedings

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) organized the 2024 Photovoltaic Inverter Reliability Workshop on April 11-12, 2024, hosted at NREL's South Table Mountain campus in Golden, Colorado. The workshop was organized around seven key topics, including the present state of inverter reliability; solutions for reliability challenges; life cycle cost and ownership issues; testing, standards, performance, and reliability metrics; data reporting, analytics, and sharing; and the future of PV inverter reliability research. Participants included inverter manufacturers, national laboratory researchers, academics, independent testing laboratories, and more. Over the course of the two-day workshop, attendees arrived at several key priorities and conclusions. This report summarizes these conclusions and then collects presentations from the workshop into a record of the workshop's proceedings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tangible Solutions for Grid Operation Upgrade

Many countries worldwide are setting clean energy targets to decarbonize the energy sector and add higher wind and solar capacities. Given their distributed nature, variable renewable energy (VRE) assets can have unique grid integration considerations, and require grid operation practices to be modernized. When transitioning to higher renewable energy levels, many system operators configure a dedicated renewable energy desk to manage renewable energy resource operation in the system control center. Further, system operation planning is conducted with VRE and load forecasting to enable reliable real-time system operation. NREL has partnered with many system operators in the region to identify appropriate technology and grid modernization solutions. NREL and partners from system operators in the region will present on the challenges and some solutions that have been applied and share best practices such as energy management system upgrades, VRE forecasting framework, grid flexibility improvements, and staff training.

emerging economies↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraints on Chondrule Generation, Disk Dynamics, and Asteroid Accretion from the Compositions of Carbonaceous Meteorites

The elemental and isotopic compositions of meteorites are expected to reflect several key processes that occurred in the early solar system, including the migration of gas and dust throughout the protoplanetary disk, the formation of chondrules, and the accretion of the first planetary bodies. However, the specific origins of the various compositions measured among these rocks are currently poorly constrained, limiting our understanding of these processes. Here, we use previously measured elemental and isotopic compositions of chondrites and iron meteorites to identify that carbonaceous (CC) meteorites are mixtures of noncarbonaceous (NC) material, calcium–aluminum-rich inclusion (CAI) material, and CI (Ivuna-like) material, in varying proportions. These trends indicate that chondrules in CO (Ornans-like), CM (Mighei-like), CV (Vigarano-like), and TL (Tagish Lake) chondrites share near-identical average proportions of CI material, arguing that they were generated through the remelting of preexisting NC chondrules all in the same disk environment. Because this proportion likely evolved over space and time throughout the disk, this similarity argues that these chondrules originate from a restricted spatial region and time interval, favoring their generation through a localized event. Moreover, the compositions of CR (Renazzo-like) chondrites indicate that their constituents formed through mechanisms different from those in CO, CM, CV, and TL chondrites. Furthermore, the recovered proportions of CI material in CC iron meteorites and chondrites together also argue for evolution in either the predominant direction of dust and gas motion in the first ~10 au of the disk or the radial distance of planetesimal accretion throughout the CC reservoir.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Primary Power Large-Scale Pilot Plant

The United States electrical power generation fleet encompasses a wide range of technologies, ranging from traditional combustion-based power generation, to nuclear power, to renewable energy. While the distribution of these assets continues to shift due to economic and regulatory influences, coal combustion continues to be a key part of the US energy portfolio. Despite the relative maturity of coal combustion technology, improvements in overall fuel-to-power efficiency and generation flexibility are still possible and will improve both the economic and environmental factors of coal combustion. Echogen Power Systems proposes to lead a world-class team including the University of Missouri, Electric Power Research Institute and Louis Perry Associates in the design, construction and operation of a 10MWe coal-fired supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) large-scale pilot. This transformational technology uses sCO 2 as a working fluid instead of water to achieve high thermodynamic efficiencies that can significantly exceed advanced steam-Rankine cycles. Further, the compact nature of sCO 2 turbomachinery offers capital cost and footprint advantages, and the low maintenance of a water-free power cycle can significantly reduce operation and maintenance (O&M) costs over conventional steam-Rankine systems. Recent integration studies of sCO 2 with coal combustion power plants highlight the significant improvements in plant efficiency that sCO 2 can offer relative to even advanced steam Rankine cycles. At commercial scales, coal-sCO 2 plant net efficiency is predicted to be 39-44.0% (HHV), or 10-20% higher output than conventional steam-Rankine systems, which will significantly improve the competitiveness of coal-fired generation. This proposal builds upon projects previously funded by the Department of Energy, including DE-FE0025959 (High-Efficiency Thermal Integration of Closed Supercritical CO 2 Brayton Power Cycles with Oxy-Fired Heaters) and DE-NE0008470 (Conceptual Design for sCO 2 Power Cycle Test Facility). An appropriately-scaled and properly designed and operated pilot project is essential to overcome the natural risk-aversion of the power generation industry and project financing community. The 10 MWe coal-fired sCO 2 pilot power plant proposed herein will reduce the technical and economic risk of this transformational technology, enabling commercial deployment at the conclusion of the project. For the second phase of this project, Echogen lead a team that completed and refined the pilot system conceptual system and key component designs resulting in the completion of a front-end-engineering-design (FEED) study, completed the NEPA review process, completed the permitting process for construction and operation, refined the techno-economic analysis of the proposed system at commercial scale and received commitments for Phase III cost share. The end result of the program will be to demonstrate the technical and economic superiority of the sCO 2 power cycle for coal-fired operation. Major risk elements will have been retired with sufficient operation at high power to enable the power generation industry to move forward with the first commercial deployment of this transformational system.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development and Experimental Optimization of High-Temperature Modeling Tools and Methods for Concentrated Solar Power Particle - Systems

A novel, open-source radiative modeling toolset was developed to extend the functionality of particle-based modeling software (e.g. discrete element method (DEM)) to environmental conditions relevant to concentrated solar power applications. This toolset was optimized for deployment on desktop workstations instead of high-performance computing systems, to render such tools more accessible to the research community. Both particle-based modeling and radiative exchange modeling are computationally expensive and often require specialized programming expertise, making these methods cumbersome to use. Recent developments in DEM software by DCS Computing have greatly reduced these challenges, providing a graphical-user-interface based platform and modeling optimization for desktop workstations, HPCs, and cloud computing. The University of Dayton leveraged the experience of DCS Computing in developing a user-friendly, open-source radiative heat transfer expansion for DEM modeling. The University of Dayton DEM+ radiative modeling toolset was developed using a combination of fundamental experimental measurements, modeling, and simplified flow experiments over a range of temperatures and flow conditions. The toolset provides researchers with access to multiple radiative models including an accelerated Monte-Carlo Ray Tracing (application agnostic, highly computationally expensive), an expanded database of distance-based approximations (application limited, computationally light), and a weighted blending of the two methods capable of achieving over 90% reduction in computation time with equivalent accuracy compared to Monte-Carlo Ray Tracing. Through a graphical user interface, users can customize the radiative models to match their desired accuracy and available computational resources, improving access to particle based modeling for the research community. Ceramic sintered bauxite proppants were used in modeling and experimentally as a baseline. Both the radiative heat transfer and flow properties for particulate systems were investigated at elevated temperatures up to 800 °C. The major accomplishments for this work include a verified, open-source radiative modeling toolset to be distributed amongst the research community and the fabrication of three small-scale test facilities to investigate particle behavior and tune DEM flow properties for operation up to 800 °C. The findings have been shared with the research community via conference modeling workshops, deployment of the tools in DCS Computing Aspherix®, and open-source access to the developed radiative modeling tool. The development of next-generation CSP facilities and thermal energy storage systems based on ceramic particles requires providing access to computationally efficient and accurate modeling tools. Particles will experience a wide range of environments (20-800 °C) and handling conditions (dilute curtains or dense packing), requiring specially designed and optimized equipment. Optimizing solid particle physics models and establishing best-practices for particle modeling in CSP environments will assist researchers with designing optimized equipment, accelerating the deployment of more economically-competitive CSP facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scientific frontiers of agrivoltaic cropping systems

Agrivoltaic (AV) systems integrate agriculture with electricity conversion through photovoltaic (PV) modules. Compared with conventional ground-mounted PV systems, AV systems can reduce land-use competition and offer agronomic and economic advantages, such as more stable crop production and additional farm income. However, AV systems can decrease agricultural performance and are typically 20-90% costlier to install than conventional PV systems. Here, in this Review, we analyse the implementation of AV cropping systems to preserve agricultural activities and highlight challenges and barriers. The global electricity potential of AV systems is ~66-385 PWh annually, depending on PV technology and installation density, if deployed in the most suitable areas, without accounting for grid availability. Scaling up has been hindered by crop selection for shading conditions, decreased energy conversion per unit of land area and issues with social acceptance, landscape impact and environmental sustainability. These issues can be addressed by developments such as wavelength-selective PV; system configurations, such as optimizing module spacing to reduce shading; and operational methods, such as optimizing tracking strategies and integrating agricultural infrastructure. Cross-sector policies can support AV systems by addressing the needs of diverse stakeholders over shared land resources. Further development will require collaboration among the design, performance, deployment and systems research communities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

PV Evolution in the Light of Circular Economy: Preprint

An ideal circular economy has no waste, end-of-life resources become new goods, and all production loops are closed. For the photovoltaic industry’s growing waste problem, quantifying the value of lifetime, reliability, repair, reuse, recycling and other options to increase circularity can help identify and prioritize research needs. In this work we capture the evolution of PV module technology, such as improved reliability and increasing market share of glass/glass modules. We then study the material and energy flows for PV production and use, and identify the circular processes and pathways yielding the most impact. We discuss material circularity and energy return on investment as quantitative metrics to define and evaluate circularity.

bifacial↗
DOE OSTI2023

2022 Product Commercialization and Market Development Awardee: Bergey Windpower

In 2023, consumers will finance more than 80% of the residential solar energy systems they purchase, which they use as collateral (called "non-recourse loans"). Similar loans are not yet offered to fund distributed wind energy systems. To accelerate deployment of small wind systems, which power individual rural homes and farms, the United States will need to make consumer loans available at reasonable rates with modest downpayments and collateral requirements. A team led by Bergey Windpower Co. is creating new consumer financing options to reduce or eliminate the upfront cash needed to buy distributed wind energy systems. This new financing structure would decrease purchase costs for small wind turbines produced by Bergey Windpower and possibly other manufacturers. Product financing is instrumental in growing wind power market share, clean energy manufacturing, and installation jobs while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Bergey Windpower's previous Competitiveness Improvement Project (CIP) awards have led to the development of affordable, high-performance wind turbines, microgrids, and components.

CIP↗
DOE OSTI2020

The chemical nature of the young 120-Myr-old nearby Pisces–Eridanus stellar stream flowing through the Galactic disc

Recently, a new cylindrical-shaped stream of stars up to 700 pc long was discovered hiding in the Galactic disc using kinematic data enabled by the Gaia mission. This stream of stars, dubbed Pisces–Eridanus (Psc–Eri), was initially thought to be as old as 1 Gyr, yet its stars shared a rotation period distribution consistent with a population that was 120 Myr old. Here, we explore the detailed chemical nature of this stellar stream. We carried out high-resolution spectroscopic follow-up of 42 Psc–Eri stars using McDonald Observatory and combined these data with information for 40 members observed with the low-resolution LAMOST spectroscopic survey. Together, these data enabled us to measure the abundance distribution of light/odd-Z (Li, Na, Al, Sc, V), α (Mg, Si, Ca, Ti), Fe-peak (Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Zn), and neutron capture (Sr, Y, Zr, Ba, La, Nd, Eu) elements along the Psc–Eri stream. We find that the stream is (1) near-solar metallicity with [Fe/H] = –0.03 dex and (2) has a metallicity spread of 0.07 dex (or 0.04 dex when outliers are excluded). We also find that (3) the abundance of Li indicates that Psc–Eri is ~120 Myr old, consistent with its gyrochronology age. Additionally, Psc–Eri has (4) [X/Fe] abundance spreads that are just larger than the typical uncertainty in most elements, (5) it is a cylindrical-like system whose outer edges rotate about the centre, and (6) no significant abundance gradients along its major axis except a potentially weak gradient in [Si/Fe]. These results show that Psc–Eri is a uniquely close young chemically interesting laboratory for testing our understanding of star and planet formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Day-ahead photovoltaic power production forecasting methodology based on machine learning and statistical post-processing

A main challenge towards ensuring large-scale and seamless integration of photovoltaic systems is to improve the accuracy of energy yield forecasts, especially in grid areas of high photovoltaic shares. The scope of this paper is to address this issue by presenting a unified methodology for hourly-averaged day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasts with improved accuracy, based on data-driven machine learning techniques and statistical post-processing. More specifically, the proposed forecasting methodology framework comprised of a data quality stage, data-driven power output machine learning model development (artificial neural networks), weather clustering assessment (K-means clustering), post-processing output optimisation (linear regressive correction method) and the final performance accuracy evaluation. The results showed that the application of linear regression coefficients to the forecasted outputs of the developed day-ahead photovoltaic power production neural network improved the performance accuracy by further correcting solar irradiance forecasting biases. The resulting optimised model provided a mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% when applied to historical system datasets. Finally, the model was validated both, at a hot as well as a cold semi-arid climatic location, and the obtained results demonstrated close agreement by yielding forecasting accuracies of mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% and 6.3%, respectively. Finally, the validation analysis provides evidence that the proposed model exhibits high performance in both forecasting accuracy and stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗