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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Strategies for Achieving the DOE Hydrogen Shot Goal: Thermal Conversion Approaches

In July 2021 the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) launched the first of a series of Department-wide Energy Earthshot goals designed to accelerate breakthroughs of more abundant, affordable, and reliable clean energy solutions within the decade. The Hydrogen Shot goal seeks to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen to $\$$1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). Today, thermal conversion of fossil fuels represents the predominant, lowest cost method of hydrogen production. In 2020 approximately 75 percent of global, dedicated hydrogen production was produced via fossil fuels using thermal conversion approaches such as steam reforming and gasification. However, carbon management techniques such as CO 2 capture and sequestration (CCS) and pyrolysis are not widely represented in the current fossil-based hydrogen production fleet. Lowering the cost of clean hydrogen production from commercial and advanced thermal conversion-based technologies is critical for successfully achieving the Hydrogen Shot goal. This report presents the findings from an initial screening analysis of several scenarios that explore cost drivers related to clean hydrogen production. The screening encompasses commercially available and developing thermal conversion technology alternatives as well as factors exogenous to the plant such as feedstock/byproduct pricing, CO 2 pipeline and storage infrastructure costs, and scale to assess potential pathways towards meeting the Hydrogen Shot goal. Additionally, this report presents initial Research and Development (R&D) strategies to advance thermal conversion technology towards meeting the Hydrogen Shot goal.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Status Report on Regulatory Criteria Applicable to the Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)

Although the interest in the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in nuclear energy is increasing rapidly, at present their implementation is limited. This rapid increase in interest is not surprising considering that implementing AI and ML technology would allow for continuous monitoring, facilitate the implementation of predictive maintenance with optimized staffing plans, enable automation and autonomy opportunities that could drastically reduce fixed operation and maintenance costs, and provide training for operations and maintenance. Other industries are using AI for construction, and in the nuclear arena AI could provide great benefit in decommissioning activities. The ability of AI and ML to operate in real time vastly increases their potential impact. Before AI can be used in design, operations, or as a regulatory tool, the specifics on the regulations applicable to the use of AI for nuclear power applications need to be established. The difficulty is that the specific use cases will dictate the applicability of regulations. For example, even within the application domain associated with operations, the regulations might vary if the AI is used to create a virtual reference for plant operations or is used for training, optimization of maintenance intervals, prioritization of maintenance activities, etc. Different still is if the AI is to be used for design or setting technical specifications, which will introduce additional requirements. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing reviews are based on an applicant’s design meeting its performance assessment based on (1) safety goals and objectives, (2) deterministic and/or probabilistic analysis of accident scenarios, and (3) quantitative assessment of design alternatives against the safety goals and objectives using accepted engineering tools, methodologies, and performance criteria. The current regulatory framework does not explicitly address AI or autonomous control. However, as implementing AI technology will require the use of a digital platform, it must meet the requirements of an instrumentation and control (I&C) system. The regulatory requirements for AI, which will be incorporated into the I&C system, will be very dependent on how it is used (i.e., its functionality, safety classification, etc.). The licensing process is primarily risk-based with the identification of components and systems as nonsafety, important to safety, or safety related. A risk-informed approach allows further gradation of components and systems based on risk metrics such as core damage frequency or large early release fractions. Thus, the use cases and the risk categorization of impacted systems and components will determine the regulatory requirements. Regardless of how AI is used it presents new opportunities for risk-informing operating, maintenance, and regulatory decisions. Trustworthiness, transparency, and the ability to validate and verify the results will be paramount in showing that the systems and plant still meet their performance requirements. This report describes the results of research to identify regulatory implications of AI technologies and their uses. Specifically, this report reviews current regulatory guidance relevant to the application of AI for design (including design changes or new designs including advanced reactors), construction, operations, training, maintenance, research, testing, and as a regulatory tool. AI can be automated at different levels from purely informative purposes to autonomous controls. The focus of this review included determination of constraints on the application of AI technology, identification of any regulatory gaps or uncertainties, and clarification of anticipated technical basis information likely to be important for regulatory acceptance of these technologies. Currently, any use of AI at nuclear power plants is focused on nonsafety-related applications. The NRC and other regulatory bodies are evaluating providing guidance to address gaps rather than create new regulations to address the use of AI and ML. This approach seems to be the best to encourage AI development without adding regulatory uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydrogen Shot Technology Assessment: Thermal Conversion Approaches

In July 2021 the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) launched the first of a series of Department-wide Energy Earthshot™ goals designed to accelerate breakthroughs of more abundant, affordable, and reliable clean energy solutions within the decade. The Hydrogen Shot goal seeks to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen to $\$$1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). Today, thermal conversion of fossil fuels represents the predominant, lowest cost method of hydrogen production. In 2020 approximately 75 percent of global, dedicated hydrogen production was produced via fossil fuels using thermal conversion approaches such as steam reforming and gasification. However, carbon management techniques such as CO 2 capture and sequestration (CCS) and pyrolysis are not widely represented in the current fossil-based hydrogen production fleet. Lowering the cost of clean hydrogen production from commercial and advanced thermal conversion-based technologies is critical for successfully achieving the Hydrogen Shot goal. This report presents the findings from an initial screening analysis of several scenarios that explore cost drivers related to clean hydrogen production. The screening encompasses commercially available and developing thermal conversion technology alternatives as well as factors exogenous to the plant such as feedstock/byproduct pricing, CO 2 pipeline and storage infrastructure costs, and scale to assess potential pathways towards meeting the Hydrogen Shot goal. Additionally, this report presents initial Research and Development (R&D) strategies to advance thermal conversion technology towards meeting the Hydrogen Shot™ goal.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

National Security Programs - Cyber: MMAREJBLIGE – Modular Multi Agent Grid Emulation for Joined Breakdowns in Linked Generative Emulations - 23-0644

Modular Multi Agent Grid Emulations for Joined Breakdowns in Linked Generative Emulations (MMAREJBLIGE) introduces an agent-based modeling framework into real-time cyber-physical emulation to achieve a context-aware environment that introduces operator/attacker/external-condition variability to improve emulation fidelity and testing rigor. We detail our agent framework design, internal communication via message passing, and time synchronization, as well as the individual components of the system. We include a brief analysis of several scenarios run on a real-time, hardware-in-the-loop, Industrial Control Systems (ICS) test-bed which include normal operation, physical disruption, disruption with mitigation, and disruption with mitigation during a cyber denial-of-service (DOS) attack.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pebble Tanker Model for Nuclear Criticality Safety Needs

This report documents a study performed to investigate the requirements for criticality safety benchmark experiments for high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel in transportation applications. In this work, an exploratory application model, the “Pebble Tanker,” was developed to represent TRISO fuel in a transportation scenario for an analysis of the validation basis in industrial quantities. An aspect of the criticality validation process involves assessing the “similarity” between application and experimental benchmark systems through an integral index parameter evaluation. Here, this includes propagating nuclear data uncertainties and calculating a correlation coefficient (hereinafter referred to as “c k ”) to evaluate the similarity of benchmark experiments compared with the application Pebble Tanker model. Finding sufficient critical benchmark experiments allows for the evaluation of bias and bias uncertainty, thus determining the upper subcritical limit (USL) of the transportation package. A target k eff of ~0.94 was used in this work to establish appropriate modeling conditions, reflecting a reasonable estimate for a USL. Two container models were investigated: one with the Hermes-type pebble and one with the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR)–type pebble. The models were simplified, considering only fuel, containment structure, and either water or air. This allows a focus on the underlying physics of applications involving TRISO fuel pebbles using the Pebble Tanker model. A crucial consideration is the transport package's ability to safely hold pebbles while flooded, maintaining subcritical conditions. Tools available in the SCALE 6.3.1 suite—the CSAS6-Shift, TSUNAMI-3D-Shift, and TSUNAMI-IP sequences—were employed for neutronics and sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis of the Pebble Tanker. Findings demonstrated sufficient available critical experiment benchmarks to perform a validation of the Pebble Tanker in the most reactive state, i.e., when the Tanker is flooded.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A LOCA Analysis Tool: Coupling RELAP5-3D to BISON

Experimental evidence illustrates that at burnups slightly above the current regulatory limit of a rod-averaged burnup of 62 MWd/kgU, the ceramic UO 2 inside light-water reactor fuel rods becomes susceptible to a phenomenon known as fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) during a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) transient. The severity of FFRD is strongly influenced by the zirconium-based (Zircaloy) cladding behavior during the LOCA transient. A Technology Commercialization Fund (TCF) project was awarded to an Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)/Idaho National Laboratory team to create a LOCA analysis tool that couples BISON to the systems/thermal-hydraulics code RELAP5-3D [1] for analysis of LOCA scenarios. In addition, further refinements to existing BISON models were identified as necessary to more accurately represent more recent experimental evidence from the Studsvik Cladding Integrity Project (SCIP) and other experimental programs.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A mechanistic model of a PWR-based nuclear power plant in response to external hazard-induced station blackout accidents

Natural hazard-induced nuclear accidents, such as the Fukushima Daiichi Accident that occurred in Japan in 2011, have significantly increased reactor safety studies in understanding nuclear power plant (NPP) responses to external hazard events such as earthquakes and floods. Natural hazards could cause the loss of offsite power in nuclear power plants, potentially leading to a Station Blackout (SBO) accident that significantly contributes to the overall risk of nuclear power plant accidents. Despite the fact that extensive research has been conducted on the station blackout accident for nuclear power plant, further understanding of these events is needed, particularly in the context of the dynamic nature of external hazards such as external flooding. This paper estimates the progression of station blackout events for a generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) in response to external flooding events. The original RELAP5-3D model of the Westinghouse four-loop design pressurized water reactor was adopted and modified to simulate the external flood-induced station blackout accident, including the short-term and long-term station blackout scenarios. A sensitivity analysis of long-term station blackout, examining reactor operation times and analyzing key parameters over time, was also conducted in this work. The results of the analyses, especially the critical timing parameters of key event sequences, provide useful insights about the time during the external flooding event, which is important for plant operators to make timely decisions to prevent potential core damage. This paper represents significant progress toward developing an integrated risk assessment framework for further identifying and assessing the effects of the critical sources of uncertainties of nuclear power plant under external hazard-induced events.

Liu, Tao↗
DOE OSTI2024

Going beyond BEM with BEM: an insight into dynamic inflow effects on floating wind turbines

Blade element momentum (BEM) theory is the backbone of many industry-standard wind turbine aerodynamic models. To be applied to a broader set of engineering problems, BEM models have been extended since their inception and now include several empirical corrections. These models have benefitted from decades of development and refinement and have been extensively used and validated, proving their adequacy in predicting aerodynamic forces of horizontal-axis wind turbine rotors in most scenarios. However, the analysis of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) introduces new sets of challenges, especially if new-generation large and flexible machines are considered. In fact, due to the combined action of wind and waves and their interaction with the turbine structure and control system, these machines are subject to unsteady motion and thus unsteady inflow on the wind turbine's blades, which could put BEM models to the test. Consensus has not been reached on the accuracy limits of BEM in these conditions. This study contributes to the ongoing research on the topic by systematically comparing four different aerodynamic models, ranging from BEM to computational fluid dynamics, in an attempt to shed light on the unsteady aerodynamic phenomena that are at stake in FOWTs and whether BEM is able to model them appropriately. Simulations are performed on the UNAFLOW 1:75 scale rotor during imposed harmonic surge and pitch motion. Experimental results are available for these conditions and are used for baseline validation. The rotor is analyzed in both rated operating conditions and low wind speeds, where unsteady aerodynamic effects are expected to be more pronounced. Results show that BEM, despite its simplicity, can adequately model the aerodynamics of FOWTs in most conditions if augmented with a dynamic inflow model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1985

Economics of liquid hydrogen from water electrolysis

An economical model for preliminary analysis of LH2 cost from water electrolysis is presented. The model is based on data from vendors and open literature, and is suitable for computer analysis of different scenarios for 'directional' purposes. Cost data associated with a production rate of 10,886 kg/day are presented. With minimum modification, the model can also be used to predict LH2 cost from any electrolyzer once the electrolyzer's cost data are available.

Lin, F. N.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Spacecraft and mission design for the SpaceNuclear PowerSystem Reference Mission

The design and performance of a spacecraft employing arcjet nuclear electric propulsion, suitable for use in the Space Nuclear Power System Reference Mission, are outlined. The vehicle design is based on a 92 kW ammonia arcjet system operating at an I(sp) of 1050 s and an efficiency of 45 percent. The arcjet/gimbal system, power processing unit, and propellant feed-system are described. A 100 kW(e) space nuclear power system is assumed and the spacecraft mass is baselined at 5250 kg excluding the propellant, propellent feed system, and integrated chemical boost engine. A radiation/arcjet efflux diagnostics package is included in the performance analysis. Three mission scenarios are described and are capable of demonstrating the full capability of the space nuclear power source. The missions considered include power system deployment to possible SDI platform orbits and a spacecraft storage mission to an orbit of three times geosynchronous (GEO) with return to GEO corresponding to Delta V's between 7400 m/s, and 7900 m/s. This spacecraft meets the Reference Mission constraint of low developmental risk and is scaleable to power levels projected for future space platforms.

Deininger, William D.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Orbital debris from upper-stage breakup

The present conference on the effects of launch vehicle upper-stage breakup on the orbital debris scenario discusses an analysis of the SPOT 1 Ariane third stage, the explosive fragmentation of orbiting propellant tanks, albedo estimates for debris, Ariane-related debris in deep-space orbit, and the relationship of hypervelocity impacts to upper-stage breakups. Also discussed are the prospects for and the economics of the future removal of orbital debris, collision probabilities in GEO, current operational practices for Delta second stage breakup prevention, breakup-precluding modifications to the Ariane third stage, and the safing of the H-1 second stage after spacecraft separation.

Loftus, Joseph P., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Autonomous onboard navigation using tracking and data relay satellite system (TDRSS) signals

Analyses have indicated that the NASA Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) can furnish its orbital users accurate, low cost onboard navigation services via two different modes: (1) Forward-Link Scheduled Tracking, designated 'Block-I', and (2) Forward-Link Beacon Tracking, designated 'Block II'. Attention is presently given to the Block-I and Block-II system configurations, signal definition, and observation data descriptions. Projected accuracies for orbit-determination, time-determination, and frequency-determination are presented, in conjunction with user-navigation scenarios and covariance analysis results detailing error sources and magnitudes. The status of the two navigation service modes in both TDRSS and Advanced TDRSS is noted.

Engel, Cheryl↗
NASA NTRS1990

Navigation accuracies for GPS demonstration on Topex/Poseidon

When Topex/Poseidon, is launched in June 1992, the joint United States/French oceanographic satellite mission will carry a developmental Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver on board to support the planned GPS demonstration experiment. The navigation operations aspect of the demonstration will develop software and operational procedures for the GPS Data Processing Facility (GDPF) at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. This paper presents simulations and covariance analysis of operational scenarios in support of the GDPF. Multi-orbit filter techniques using GPS carrier phase and P-code pseudo-range are studied both to tune the filter parameters and to determine feasible arc lengths for use in operations. In addition, a baseline operational scenario is presented with performance results given in terms of end-to-end processing times and computational loading based on a prototype version of the operational software.

Williams, B. G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Symbol lock detection in the ARX 2 and Block 5 receivers

The performances of 5 symbol-lock detectors are compared. These detectors are the square-law detector with overlapping (SQOD) and nonoverlapping integrators, the absolute-value detectors with overlapping and nonoverlapping integrators, and the signal-power estimator detector (SPED). The analysis considers various scenarios in which the observation interval is much larger than or equal to the symbol-synchronizer loop bandwidth, and which were not considered in previous analyses. Also, the case of threshold setting in the absence of signal is considered. It is shown, that the SQOD outperforms all others when the threshold is set in the presence of a signal, independent of the relationship between loop bandwidth and observation period. On the other hand, the SPED outperforms all others when the threshold is set in the presence of noise only.

Shihabi, M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Real-time edge-enhanced optical correlator

The performance of five symbol lock detectors are compared. They are the square-law detector with overlapping (SQOD) and non-overlapping (SQNOD) integrators, the absolute value detectors with overlapping and non-overlapping (AVNOD) integrators and the signal power estimator detector (SPED). The analysis considers various scenarios when the observation interval is much larger or equal to the symbol synchronizer loop bandwidth, which has not been considered in previous analyses. Also, the case of threshold setting in the absence of signal is considered. It is shown that the SQOD outperforms all others when the threshold is set in the presence of signal, independent of the relationship between loop bandwidth and observation period. On the other hand, the SPED outperforms all others when the threshold is set in the presence of noise only.

Shihabi, Mazen M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Large-Scale NASA Science Applications on the Columbia Supercluster

Columbia, NASA's newest 61 teraflops supercomputer that became operational late last year, is a highly integrated Altix cluster of 10,240 processors, and was named to honor the crew of the Space Shuttle lost in early 2003. Constructed in just four months, Columbia increased NASA's computing capability ten-fold, and revitalized the Agency's high-end computing efforts. Significant cutting-edge science and engineering simulations in the areas of space and Earth sciences, as well as aeronautics and space operations, are already occurring on this largest operational Linux supercomputer, demonstrating its capacity and capability to accelerate NASA's space exploration vision. The presentation will describe how an integrated environment consisting not only of next-generation systems, but also modeling and simulation, high-speed networking, parallel performance optimization, and advanced data analysis and visualization, is being used to reduce design cycle time, accelerate scientific discovery, conduct parametric analysis of multiple scenarios, and enhance safety during the life cycle of NASA missions. The talk will conclude by discussing how NAS partnered with various NASA centers, other government agencies, computer industry, and academia, to create a national resource in large-scale modeling and simulation.

Brooks, Walter↗
NASA NTRS2006

Role of High-End Computing in Meeting NASA's Science and Engineering Challenges

High-End Computing (HEC) has always played a major role in meeting the modeling and simulation needs of various NASA missions. With NASA's newest 62 teraflops Columbia supercomputer, HEC is having an even greater impact within the Agency and beyond. Significant cutting-edge science and engineering simulations in the areas of space exploration, Shuttle operations, Earth sciences, and aeronautics research, are already occurring on Columbia, demonstrating its ability to accelerate NASA s exploration vision. The talk will describe how the integrated supercomputing production environment is being used to reduce design cycle time, accelerate scientific discovery, conduct parametric analysis of multiple scenarios, and enhance safety during the life cycle of NASA missions.

Biswas, Rupak↗
NASA NTRS2006

NAS Demand Predictions, Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) Compared with Other Forecasts

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

Viken, Jeff↗