Application of the Combined Judgmental and Randomly Placed Sampling Method
In the wake of the 2001 anthrax incidents in the United States, there has been considerable discussion about the role of judgmental and probabilistic sampling strategies, particularly in the context of clearance sampling. The Combined Judgmental and Random (CJR) methodology provides a statistical methodology that allows practitioners to leverage information from both judgmental and randomly selected sample locations and then quantify the confidence in negative results. The objective of the CJR sampling design is to demonstrate, with high probability, that a high percentage of the decision area (or population) is acceptable, given that none of the samples are unacceptable. The purpose of this document is to assist practitioners to appropriately use the CJR methodology and to implement this sampling design in Visual Sample Plan (VSP). We begin by defining some fundamental terms. A decision area is the geographical or spatial area (indoor or outdoor) about which practitioners wish to draw a conclusion on the basis of sampling and other relevant information. Decision areas typically include all or part of a building, but they may be any contaminated (or potentially contaminated) area for which characterization or clearance is required. In this report, a statistical sampling approach refers to any sampling approach based on a mathematical or statistical model that provides confidence or probability statements about the decision area. Statistical sampling approaches typically involve taking samples at random locations, or at the nodes of a randomly located grid or lattice that is superimposed on the decision area. The term probabilistic sampling is often used to describe statistical sampling designs that exclusively use randomly located samples. This terminology implies that probabilistic statements can only be made based upon the results of randomly placed samples. However, the CJR method utilizes a Bayesian model that gives rise to a formal probabilistic statement regarding the acceptability of the decision area based upon the information obtained from both judgmental and random samples. Judgmental samples play a vital role in the characterization and clearance process because they include the informed prior belief and expert knowledge of personnel involved in the sampling process.