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At least 307 records · Page 17

Neural network based emulation of galaxy power spectrum covariances: A reanalysis of BOSS DR12 data

We train neural networks to quickly generate redshift-space galaxy power spectrum covariances from a given parameter set (cosmology and galaxy bias). This covariance emulator utilizes a combination of traditional fully connected network layers and transformer architecture to accurately predict covariance matrices for the high redshift, north galactic cap sample of the BOSS DR12 galaxy catalog. We run simulated likelihood analyses with emulated and brute-force computed covariances, and we quantify the network’s performance via two different metrics: (1) difference in Χ 2 and (2) likelihood contours for simulated BOSS DR 12 analyses. We find that the emulator returns excellent results over a large parameter range. We then use our emulator to perform a reanalysis of the BOSS HighZ NGC galaxy power spectrum, and find that varying covariance with cosmology along with the model vector produces Ω m = $0.27⁢6$$^{+0.013}_{–0.015}$, H 0 = 70.2 ± 1.9 km/s/Mpc, and σ 8 = $0.67⁢4$$^{+0.058}_{–0.077}$. These constraints represent an average 0.46⁢σ shift in best-fit values and a 5% increase in constraining power compared to fixing the covariance matrix (Ω m = 0.293 ± 0.017, H 0 = 70.3 ± 2.0 km/s/Mpc, σ 8 = $0.70⁢2$$^{+0.063}_{–0.075}$). As a result, this work demonstrates that emulators for more complex cosmological quantities than second-order statistics can be trained over a wide parameter range at sufficiently high accuracy to be implemented in realistic likelihood analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Representation of U.S. Warm Temperature Extremes in Global Climate Model Ensembles

Extreme temperature events can have considerable negative impacts on sectors such as health, agriculture, and transportation. Observational evidence indicates the severity and frequency of warm extremes are increasing over much of the United States, but there are sizeable challenges both in estimating extreme temperature changes and in quantifying the relevant associated uncertainties. This study provides a simple statistical framework using a block maxima approach to analyze the representation of warm temperature extremes in several recent global climate model ensembles. Uncertainties due to structural model differences, grid resolution, and internal variability are characterized and discussed. Results show that models and ensembles differ greatly in the representation of extreme temperature over the United States, and variability in tail events is dependent on time and anthropogenic warming, which can influence estimates of return periods and distribution parameter estimates using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. These effects can considerably influence the uncertainty of model hindcasts and projections of extremes. Several idealized regional applications are highlighted for evaluating ensemble skill and trends, based on quantile analysis and root-mean-square errors in the overall sample and the upper tail. The results are relevant to regional climate assessments that use global model outputs and that are sensitive to extreme warm temperature. Accompanying this manuscript is a simple toolkit using the R statistical programming language for characterizing extreme events in gridded datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Oxygen isotope evidence from Ryugu samples for early water delivery to Earth by CI chondrites

The delivery of water to the inner Solar System, including Earth, is still a debated topic. A preferential role for hydrated asteroids in this process is supported by isotopic measurements. Carbonaceous chondrite (CC) meteorites represent our main source of information about these volatile-rich asteroids. However, the destruction of weaker materials during atmospheric entry creates a bias in our CC data. The return of surface materials from the C-type asteroid 162173 Ryugu by the Hayabusa2 spacecraft provides a unique opportunity to study high-porosity, low-density, primitive materials, unrepresented in the meteorite record. We measured the bulk oxygen isotope composition from four Ryugu particles and show that they most closely resemble the rare CI (CC Ivuna-type) chondrites, but with some differences that we attribute to the terrestrial contamination of the CI meteorites. We suggest that CI-related material is widespread among carbonaceous asteroids and a more important source of Earth’s water and other volatiles than its limited presence in our meteoritic collection indicates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Compilation of PRF Canyon Floor Pan Sample Analysis Results

On September 28, 2015, debris collected from the PRF (236-Z) canyon floor, Pan J, was observed to exhibit chemical reaction. The material had been transferred from the floor pan to a collection tray inside the canyon the previous Friday. Work in the canyon was stopped to allow Industrial Hygiene to perform monitoring of the material reaction. Canyon floor debris that had been sealed out was sequestered at the facility, a recovery plan was developed, and drum inspections were initiated to verify no additional reactions had occurred. On October 13, in-process drums containing other Pan J material were inspected and showed some indication of chemical reaction, limited to discoloration and degradation of inner plastic bags. All Pan J material was sealed back into the canyon and returned to collection trays. Based on the high airborne levels in the canyon during physical debris removal, ETGS (Encapsulation Technology Glycerin Solution) was used as a fogging/lock-down agent. On October 15, subject matter experts confirmed a reaction had occurred between nitrates (both Plutonium Nitrate and Aluminum Nitrate Nonahydrate (ANN) are present) in the Pan J material and the ETGS fixative used to lower airborne radioactivity levels during debris removal. Management stopped the use of fogging/lock-down agents containing glycerin on bulk materials, declared a Management Concern, and initiated the Potential Inadequacy in the Safety Analysis determination process. Additional drum inspections and laboratory analysis of both reacted and unreacted material are planned. This report compiles the results of many different sample analyses conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory on samples collected from the Plutonium Reclamation Facility (PRF) floor pans by the CH2MHill’s Plateau Remediation Company (CHPRC). Revision 1 added Appendix G that reports the results of the Gas Generation Rate and methodology. The scope of analyses requested by CHPRC includes the determination of common anions, gamma spectrometry, metals, corrosivity, organics and alpha spectrometry (note: alpha spectrometry was cancelled during the performance of this work with concurrence from CHPRC). Results may help elucidate the components that led to the unexpected reaction in the canyon as well as inform the radiological and hazardous characteristics. The specific anions, gamma emitters, organics and metals requested by CHPRC are provided in the analytical reports sections. The individual analyses were conducted under the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Floor Pan Evaluation Project Quality Assurance Project Plan (PFP Floor Pan Evaluation QAPP, Revision 0.) developed by PNNL specifically for this project. The final reports for each analysis set are included in this compilation of the results. Each package was reviewed under the PFP Floor Pan Evaluation Project Quality Assurance Project Plan so no additional reviews were conducted in this compilation task. The Gas Generation Rates in Appendix G were conducted under the PNNL “How Do I…” quality assurance program and were NOT conducted under the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Floor Pan Evaluation Project Quality Assurance Project Plan (PFP Floor Pan Evaluation QAPP, Revision 0.).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey (NGVS). XXVI. The Issues of Photometric Age and Metallicity Estimates for Globular Clusters

Large samples of globular clusters (GC) with precise multi-wavelength photometry are becoming increasingly available and can be used to constrain the formation history of galaxies. We present the results of an analysis of Milky Way (MW) and Virgo core GCs based on 5 optical-near-infrared colors and 10 synthetic stellar population models. For the MW GCs, the models tend to agree on photometric ages and metallicities, with values similar to those obtained with previous studies. When used with Virgo core GCs, for which photometry is provided by the Next Generation Virgo cluster Survey (NGVS), the same models generically return younger ages. This is a consequence of the systematic differences observed between the locus occupied by Virgo core GCs and models in panchromatic color space. Only extreme fine-tuning of the adjustable parameters available to us can make the majority of the best-fit ages old. Although we cannot exclude that the formation history of the Virgo core may lead to more conspicuous populations of relatively young GCs than in other environments, we emphasize that the intrinsic properties of the Virgo GCs are likely to differ systematically from those assumed in the models. Thus, the large wavelength coverage and photometric quality of modern GC samples, such as those used here, is not by itself sufficient to better constrain the GC formation histories. Models matching the environment-dependent characteristics of GCs in multi-dimensional color space are needed to improve the situation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Rethinking the Default Construction of Multimodel Climate Ensembles

Here, we discuss the current code of practice in the climate sciences to routinely create climate model ensembles as ensembles of opportunity from the newest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). We give a two-step argument to rethink this process. First, the differences between generations of ensembles corresponding to different CMIP phases in key climate quantities are not large enough to warrant an automatic separation into generational ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5. Second, we suggest that climate model ensembles cannot continue to be mere ensembles of opportunity but should always be based on a transparent scientific decision process. If ensembles can be constrained by observation, then they should be constructed as target ensembles that are specifically tailored to a physical question. If model ensembles cannot be constrained by observation, then they should be constructed as cross-generational ensembles, including all available model data to enhance structural model diversity and to better sample the underlying uncertainties. To facilitate this, CMIP should guide the necessarily ongoing process of updating experimental protocols for the evaluation and documentation of coupled models. Finally, with an emphasis on easy access to model data and facilitating the filtering of climate model data across all CMIP generations and experiments, our community could return to the underlying idea of using model data ensembles to improve uncertainty quantification, evaluation, and cross-institutional exchange.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Risk Assessment in a Chemical Laboratory Following an Explosive Incident Involving a Novel Diazonium Compound: Retrospective Analysis and Lessons Learned

Diazonium compounds are synthetically useful in the production of dyes and textiles, however they are highly explosive under dry conditions. Explosion prevention becomes more difficult when new diazonium compounds are synthesized, because while some syntheses include a counterion to increase their stability, this is not always a reliable method to prevent an explosive incident. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the explosiveness of different diazonium compounds, it is important to understand how to safely clean up after an incident and how to determine when it is safe to return a laboratory to typical operational use, particularly when the incident involves a novel compound where a standard does not exist for instrument calibration. Here, an explosive event is discussed involving the synthesis of 4-bromo-benzenediazonium-2-carboxylate. Following the explosive incident and 3-step cleanup, which involved a precautionary neutralization step, samples were collected from the fume hood where the incident occurred. Because the incident involved an unstable, novel compound that is not commercially available and was deemed unsafe to resynthesize for instrument calibration, we assessed the risk of further explosion by analyzing for the stable decomposition products. Mass spectrometry analysis confirmed that the residue in the fume hood contained 5-bromosalicylic acid, a decomposition product of 4-bromo-benzenediazonium-2-carboxylate. Samples were taken from multiple points in the fume hood and analyzed to estimate the spatial distribution of the decomposition product. Based on this analysis, we inferred that the primary decomposition product was far more abundant than residual energetic, indicating the energetic had been consumed or neutralized to a trace quantity where the risk of further explosion was low. Furthermore, the steps presented here─specifically, initial neutralization and then analyzing the spatial distribution of expected decomposition products to assess risk when a novel explosive material is detonated in a confined space─were our approach to assess further risk following an explosion due to a novel diazonium compound without the need for any further handling or resynthesis of the energetic. Here, we present our approach and critically analyze these steps by discussing retrospective lessons learned and alternative analytical approaches.

Computer simulations↗

Surrogate Optimization of Computationally Expensive Black-Box Problems with Hidden Constraints (SHEBO) v1.0

SHEBO (surrogate optimization of problems with hidden constraints and expensive black-box objectives) is an efficient optimization algorithm that employs surrogate models to solve computationally expensive black-box simulation optimization problems that have hidden constraints. Hidden constraints are encountered when the objective function evaluation does not return a value for a parameter vector. These constraints are often encountered in optimization problems in which the objective function is computed by a black-box simulation code. SHEBO uses a combination of local and global search strategies together with an evaluability prediction function and a dynamically adjusted evaluability threshold to iteratively select new sample points.

Mueller, Juliane↗

Classification of subsurface objects using singular values derived from signal frames

The classification system represents a detected object with a feature vector derived from the return signals acquired by an array of N transceivers operating in multistatic mode. The classification system generates the feature vector by transforming the real-valued return signals into complex-valued spectra, using, for example, a Fast Fourier Transform. The classification system then generates a feature vector of singular values for each user-designated spectral sub-band by applying a singular value decomposition (SVD) to the N.times.N square complex-valued matrix formed from sub-band samples associated with all possible transmitter-receiver pairs. The resulting feature vector of singular values may be transformed into a feature vector of singular value likelihoods and then subjected to a multi-category linear or neural network classifier for object classification.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

ML-based Micro-CT SOFC Microstructure Models (from Kent 2026 Microstructural Augmentation paper)

Overview -------------------------- This repository contains datasets from the manuscript **"Enhanced Generalizability to Deep-Learning Quantification of 3D Microstructural Characteristics through Microstructurally Aware Augmentation of Scarce Data"** (*William F. Kent, Rochan Bajpai, Rachel C. Kurchin, William K. Epting, Harry W. Abernathy, Paul A. Salvador. Submitted 2026*). The methods are also described in the dissertation **Data Intensive Analysis of Solid Oxide Cell Microstructures** (*Doctoral dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University, 2025*). The datasets here are trained convolutional neural network (CNN) models for predicting key microstructural properties of solid oxide cell (SOC) electrodes from low-res, 2-channel 3D images, as well as some helpful code. The parameters for input images are provided in the paper. Sample data is provided in the file `Combined_anode_aug_dual_1k_examples` - that particular data was used to train `anode_all_aug.pth` and will work most accurately with that model. Please familiarize yourself with all caveats on accuracy and applicability, as detailed in the associated paper. Usage -------------------------- The basic usage is as follows, assuming `model_fn` is the path to the .pth file, and `X` is 2-channel input image(s) of the proper dimensions (either one image of shape `[2,12,24,24]`, or a batch of N input images of shape `[N,2,12,24,24]`): from CNN_inferencer import load_model_for_inference model = load_model_for_inference(model_fn) y_predicted = model(X) The model object automatically handles input scaling and output de-scaling based on the way the models were trained - in other words, pass in a 2-channel micro-CT image, and it will output microstructural property values in real units. ## Other model object attributes Note that model has useful attributes other than its forward pass model(X). * `model.output_descaler` - returns the output descaler object. Model does the de-scaling when generating inferences, but you may want to re-use this de-scaler on other values to e.g. compare predictions to ground truth from already-scaled training data. * `model.prop_names` - Gives the property names of the predicted y values, in order. Only exists if there's an output scaler as part of the model object, which there will be in the models provided here. ## Usage with sample data Here is a short script to use with the included sample data. from CNN_inferencer import display_predictions, load_model_for_inference, calculate_mape, parity_plot import h5py import numpy as np model_fn = 'anode_all_aug.pth' data_fn = 'Combined_anode_aug_dual_1k_examples.h5' N_samples = 200 figure_outdir = '.' model = load_model_for_inference(model_fn) with h5py.File(data_fn,'r') as f: XX = f['X'] #These are the 2-channel 3D images yy = f['y'] #These are the ground-truth microstructural properties, but they have been scaled for training - need to de-scale below N = XX.shape[0] #How many images total in the input data file #Run inferences on N_samples random samples from XX. #Run in a batch, much more efficient than one at a time. ii = np.random.choice(N,N_samples,replace=False) ii.sort() y_pred = model(XX[ii]) #Get the original/true (but normalized/scaled) values from the training dataset... #Because they were normalized, they are not in real units yet. So let's also de-scale them using model.output_scaler. y_true = model.output_scaler.transform(yy[ii]) #Let's display actual values for just 5 random ones for i in np.random.choice(N_samples,5,replace=False): display_predictions(y_true[i], y_pred[i], model.prop_names) #Make parity plots for each property (ground truth vs predicted values) #Also label each plot with the mean abs. percent error (MAPE) of the predicted values for i,key in enumerate(model.prop_names): mape = calculate_mape(y_true[:,i], y_pred[:,i]) parity_plot(y_true[:,i], y_pred[:,i], figure_outdir, key, extra_title=f' ({mape:.2f}% MAPE)')

3D microstructure↗

Obtaining and Managing Answer Quality for Online Data-Intensive Services

Online data-intensive (OLDI) services use anytime algorithms to compute over large amounts of data and respond quickly. Interactive response times are a priority, so OLDI services parallelize query execution across distributed software components and return best effort answers based on the data so far processed. Omitted data from slow components could lead to better answers, but tracing online how much better the answers could be is difficult. Here, we introduce Ubora, a design method to measure the effect of slow-running components on the quality of answers. Ubora randomly samples online queries and executes them a second time. The first online execution omits data from slow components and provides interactive answers. The second execution uses mature results from intermediate components completed after the online execution finishes. Ubora uses memoization to speed up mature executions by replaying network messages exchanged between components. Our systems-level implementation works for a wide range of services, including Hadoop/Yarn, Apache Lucene, the EasyRec Recommendation Engine, and the OpenEphyra question-answering system. Ubora computes answer quality with more mature executions per second than competing approaches that do not use memoization. With Ubora, we illustrate that answer quality is effective at guiding online admission control. While achieving the same answer quality on high-priority queries, our adaptive controller had 55% higher peak throughput on low-priority queries than a competing controller guided by the rate of timeouts.

answer quality↗

Intrabasin Comparison of Produced Fluid From Hydraulically Fractured Wells in the Permian Region

The Permian Basin is the highest producing oil and gas reservoir in the United States. Hydrocarbon extraction methods in this region are often associated with frac hits, or interwell communication events where an established well is affected by the pumping of fracture fluid into a new well. Our previous work revealed a unique geochemical signal indicating the presence of frac hits in the Permian Basin. We returned to this area with the overall goal of expanding our understanding of the microbial and geochemical dynamics common in this region. To do so, we collected produced water from 25 unique sites across the Permian Basin, 10 of which had previously been characterized during an active frac hit with the rest being novel. For each sample, we measured the pH, alkalinity, geochemical composition, microbial load (qPCR), and microbial community composition (16S rRNA sequencing). Permian Basin produced water is characterized by higher sulfate and lower total dissolved solids (TDS) concentrations compared to other regions. Interestingly, wells impacted by frac hits have a geochemical profile that resembles that of fracture fluid, with both lowered sulfate and lowered TDS concentrations compared to unaffected wells in this region. Due to the year-long recovery window between sample collection periods, we anticipate that all of our data will be characterized by the typical high sulfate, low TDS concentrations.

environmental microbiology↗

Evaluation of a Surface Spill Operation to Return Adult Steelhead Overshoots Downstream of McNary Dam

This study, funded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), was conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate the efficacy of operating one Top Spill Weir (TSW) at McNary Dam outside the normal TSW operation dates for juvenile salmon passage. Of interest is whether the TSW is an effective downstream passage route for adult steelhead overshoots. Overshoots are fish which, having passed upstream at McNary Dam, must pass downstream to return to their natal stream to spawn. This report covers Fall (2019) and Spring (2020) study periods. The study design arranged the available 24 hours of TSW spill per week into weekly blocks with sub-blocks differentiated into day and night operations with TSW discharge periods of 4- and 8-hours duration. Hydroacoustic techniques were used to sample adult fish passage at the TSW and at turbine units 1 and 10. The experimental design contrasted TSW spill periods of differing duration and at different times of the day. The small number of fish detected passing the TSW, and the smaller number of fish detected passing the turbine units, were best suited to an ad hoc, exploratory approach to evaluating the effect of TSW spill. It is worthwhile to note that the operations data obtained for the fall study period had a greater than expected number of gaps and apparent anomalies that we believe were a result of how the data were aggregated. These problems are not particularly problematic for the present study, because the available data still provide a good indication of whether the TSW was operating at each point in time. TSW flows in both fall and spring data sets were able to be cleaned up using the established relationship between forebay elevation and TSW discharge rate. Additional cleanup of operations data would be needed, however, if more quantitative evaluation of dam-wide flow and passage relationships were needed. This study contrasted TSW spill periods of differing duration and at different times of the day. The small number of fish detected passing the TSW, and the smaller number of fish detected passing the turbine units were best suited to an ad hoc, exploratory approach to evaluating the effect of TSW spill. Spring adult steelhead passage numbers estimated using hydroacoustics were notably lower than during the fall study period, and that was consistent with our analysis of PIT tagged fish likely to be in the vicinity during each study period. Detections of fish in BlueView sampling areas upstream of the TSW and powerhouse were not correlated with detections of fish passing hydroacoustic sampling areas, which suggests that fish approaching the face of the dam can move around the forebay before passing. Other fish detected in the forebay in large numbers, such as shad, were able to be filtered out of steelhead passage counts and did not appear to be influencing hydroacoustic passage rate estimates. A pulse of passage at the initial TSW opening was weakly evident, but trends across 4- and 8-hour operational periods did not show a distinct decline in passage over time as TSW operation continued. Our findings do not indicate a reason to choose one 8-hour period over two 4-hour periods, or vice versa. This suggests that the duration of spill periods can be chosen based on operational or other considerations. Passage rates were consistently higher during the daytime TSW discharge periods, relative to nighttime TSW discharge periods. The experimental design of the current study used start times near dawn for day periods and near dusk for night periods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Plutonium-238 Loadout Calorimeter Return To Service

The calorimeter in the transfer area in Building 7920 at the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory is used to measure the amount of 238 Pu in the Plutonium Heat Source Oxide. The calorimetry measurement is taken after the oxide is packaged in an ORISC (Oak Ridge Inner Shipping Capsule)/FSO (Fuel Storage Outer) assembly before loading into the Containment Vessel and shipping container. The equipment is used in three specific configurations: zero measurement (nothing in the sample cup), FSO measurement (actual measurement of 238 Pu), and reference calibration measurement (using the reference FSO as a known heat source). System checks were performed in July 2023 in preparation for scheduled material loadout. During these checks, personnel discovered that the reference FSO had experienced an electrical short in the heater cable and was no longer functional. The calorimeter was in the reference calibration measurement configuration at this time. Facility management was notified when the damage was discovered. The data from the Yokogawa recorder were pulled and analyzed for a span of time between September 2022 and July 2023. An unusual spike was found in the sample cup temperature data that started on October 19, 2022, and ended on October 20, 2022. The sample cup reached a temperature of 191.1°C. The maximum allowable temperature for the calorimeter thermopile to reach is 220°C based on the manufacturer statement provided in Appendix B of this report [1]. The calorimeter thermopile and the sample cup thermocouple are physically close to each other; therefore, the data suggest that the calorimeter itself never saw a temperature in excess of 191.1°C. Physical damage present on the cable, tape, and insulation suggests that the temperature reached a higher value in some locations within the sample cup than the data shows. Because of this discrepancy, testing of the calorimeter was required to confirm that the calorimeter is functioning the same as it was before the electrical short. The intent of this report is to assess the functionality of the calorimeter and determine if it is acceptable to use for 238 Pu loadout material measurement. Testing showed that the calorimeter is functionally equivalent to the initial calibration that was performed in the summer of 2021, and thus, the calorimeter was cleared to be used for its intended purposes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

PBX 9502 Stockpile-Returned Hemi Tension Directionality Study

This work is a continuation of work started in FY12 to evaluate whether the coring direction in PBX 9502 main charges affects the mechanical properties data. In FY13 we performed the compression and thermal expansion portions of the testing.1 In FY14 we have performed the quasi-static tension and compressive creep parts of the study. This paper focuses on the tensile results while a companion paper details the compressive creep results.2 In an effort to obtain mechanical properties samples that would better characterize the density distribution within a main charge and, to a lesser extent, to more thoroughly describe the mechanical behavior of material that has been in the field for long period of time, the LLNL PBX 9502 Core Surveillance coring pattern had been changed between cycles 29 and 30. Where the orientation of the tensile and compression samples tested in surveillance prior to cycle 30 had been cored in the tangential direction, the new coring diagram has both the tension and compression samples being oriented in the hoop direction. Prior to this study, the authors were not aware of any work that systematically demonstrated the effect on tensile properties of samples cored in these distinct directions. The results from this study will inform us of if and how we should trend the data taken before and after the coring pattern change.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Revealing the Statistics of Extreme Events Hidden in Short Weather Forecast Data

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk assessment is an altogether different problem. A once-in-a-century event takes, on average, 100 years of simulation time to appear just once, far beyond the typical integration length of a weather forecast model. Therefore, this task is left to cheaper, but less accurate, low-resolution or statistical models. But there is untapped potential in weather model output: despite being short in duration, weather forecast ensembles are produced multiple times a week. Integrations are launched with independent perturbations, causing them to spread apart over time and broadly sample phase space. Collectively, these integrations add up to thousands of years of data. We establish methods to extract climatological information from these short weather simulations. Using ensemble hindcasts by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting archived in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) database, we characterize sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events with multi-centennial return times. Consistent results are found between alternative methods, including basic counting strategies and Markov state modeling. By carefully combining trajectories together, we obtain estimates of SSW frequencies and their seasonal distributions that are consistent with reanalysis-derived estimates for moderately rare events, but with much tighter uncertainty bounds, and which can be extended to events of unprecedented severity that have not yet been observed historically. These methods hold potential for assessing extreme events throughout the climate system, beyond this example of stratospheric extremes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cyclable Variable Path Length Multilevel Structures for Lossless Ion Manipulations (SLIM) Platform for Enhanced Ion Mobility Separations

Ion mobility-mass spectrometry (IMS-MS) is increasingly used to analyze complex samples and provide structural information of unknown compounds. As the complexity of samples increases, there is a need to improve the resolution of IMS-MS instruments to increase the rate of molecular identification. In this work, we evaluated a cyclable and variable-pathlength multilevel Structures for Lossless Ion Manipulations (SLIM) platform to achieve a higher resolving power than previously possible. This new multilevel SLIM platform has eight separation levels connected by ion escalators and a path length of ~88 meters (~11 meters per level). Our new multilevel SLIM can also be operated in an ‘ion cycling’ mode where a set of return ion escalators transport ions from the eighth back to the first level, allowing even longer path lengths (and higher IMS resolution). The platform has been improved to enhance the ion transmission and IMS separation quality by reducing the spacing between SLIM boards as well as board thickness, reducing the ions’ escalator residence time. Compared to the previous generation, the new multilevel SLIM demonstrated a better transmission for a set of phosphazene ions, especially for the low-mobility ions. The new multilevel SLIM achieved better resolving powers than our previous 4-level SLIM. The collision cross-section-based resolving power of the SLIM platform was tested using a pair of singly-charged reverse sequence peptides (SDGRG 1+ , GRGDS 1+ ). We achieved 1100 resolving power using 88 meters of path length (i.e., 8 levels) and 1400 following an additional pass through the eight levels (i.e., 16 levels or 173.5 m). The multilevel SLIM was further evaluated to demonstrate the enhanced separation for a positively and negatively charged brain total lipid extract sample. Finally, the new multilevel SLIM enables much higher resolving powers for a wide range of ion mobilities, improved transmission for low-mobility ions, and the ability to perform even higher resolving power for ions of interest.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Spatial patterns of historical crop yields reveal soil health attributes in US Midwest fields

Abstract Attaining high crop yields and increasing carbon storage in agricultural soils, while avoiding negative environmental impacts on water quality, soil erosion, and biodiversity, requires accurate and precise management of crop inputs and management practices. The long-term analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of crop yields provides insights on how yields vary in a field, with parts of field constantly producing either high yields or low yields and other parts that fluctuate from one year to the next. The concept of yield stability has shown to be informative on how plants translate the effects of environmental conditions (e.g., soil, climate, topography) across the field and over the years in the final yield, and as a valuable layer in developing prescription maps of variable fertilizer rate inputs. Using known relationships between soil health and crop yields, we hypothesize that areas with measured constantly low yield will return low carbon to the soil affecting its heath. On this premises, yield stability zones (YSZ) provide an effective and practical integrative measure of the small-scale variability of soil health on a field relative basis. We tested this hypothesis by measuring various metrics of soil health from commercial farmers’ fields in the north central Midwest of the USA in samples replicated across YSZ, using a soil test suite commonly used by producers and stakeholders active in agricultural carbon credits markets. We found that the use of YSZ allowed us to successfully partition field-relative soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil health metrics into statistically distinct regions. Low and stable (LS) yield zones were statistically lower in normalized SOC when compared to high and stable (HS) and unstable (US) yield zones. The drivers of the yield differences within a field are a series of factors ranging from climate, topography and soil. LS zones occur in areas of compacted soil layers or shallow soils (edge of the field) on steeper slopes. The US zones occurring with high water flow accumulation, were more dependent on topography and rainfall. The differences in the components of the overall soil health score (SHS) between these YSZ increased with sample depth suggesting a deeper topsoil in the US and HS zones, driven by the accumulation of water, nutrients, and carbon downslope. Comparison of the field management provided initial evidence that zero tillage reduces the magnitude of the variance in SOC and soil health metrics between the YSZ.

Fowler, Ames↗