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At least 307 records · Page 17

Chemical Impacts of Potential CO2 and Brine Leakage on Groundwater Quality with Quantitative Risk Assessment: A Case Study of the Farnsworth Unit

Potential leakage of reservoir fluids is considered a key risk factor for geologic CO2 sequestration (GCS), with concerns of their chemical impacts on the quality of overlying underground sources of drinking water (USDWs). Effective risk assessment provides useful information to guide GCS activities for protecting USDWs. In this study, we present a quantified risk assessment case study of an active commercial-scale CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) and sequestration field, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU). Specific objectives of this study include: (1) to quantify potential risks of CO2 and brine leakage to the overlying USDW quality with response surface methodology (RSM); and (2) to identify water chemistry indicators for early detection criteria. Results suggest that trace metals (e.g., arsenic and selenium) are less likely to become a risk due to their adsorption onto clay minerals; no-impact thresholds based on site monitoring data could be a preferable reference for early groundwater quality evaluation; and pH is suggested as an indicator for early detection of a leakage. This study may provide quantitative insight for monitoring strategies on GCS sites to enhance the safety of long-term CO2 sequestration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Interim Measure Report Revision 0: Un-Numbered Operational Areas PRL 229

This report documents the Interim Measure (IM) completed at Un-Numbered Operational Areas (UNOA) potential release location (PRL) 229, at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. This document has been prepared for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), in accordance with HydroGeoLogic, Inc.’s (HGL) Contract 80KSC019D0012, Task Order 80KSC019F0224. The purpose of this IM report is to document the field results of the 2022 IM conducted between December 13, 2021, and February 11, 2022, and to present the recommendations based on the IM findings. IM activities were completed at the UNOA PRL 229 to remove railroad ties and benzo(a)pyrene equivalent (BAPE)/total recoverable petroleum hydrocarbons (TRPH)-affected soil in accordance with the IM Work Plan (IMWP) (Jacobs/CORE, 2019a). The objectives of the IM were to mitigate human health risks by reducing site contaminants to the residential soil cleanup target level (SCTL) based on the 95 percent upper confidence limit on the mean. A second objective was to reduce low molecular weight and high molecular weight polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations below ecological screening values for terrestrial receptors. Prior to excavation operations, railroad ties from all areas were consolidated. In total, 50.67 tons of railroad ties were transported from the site to JED Landfill in St. Cloud, Florida. The cumulative excavation footprint spanned an area of 9,710 square ft. In total, 908.54 tons of soil was transported from the site to JED Landfill. To backfill the excavation area, 880 cubic yards of clean fill was trucked to the site from S&LMaterials, Inc. borrow pit in Christmas, Florida. Following completion of backfill, the site restoration activities included grading the disturbed areas to match the existing elevations and vegetation planting by the site restoration subcontractor. The IM implementation activities were presented to the KSC Remediation Team during its meeting on May 3, 2022. The Remediation Team reached consensus on the completion of the IM reducing the area affected by BAPE/TRPH above the State of Florida residential soil cleanup target levels.

PAHs↗

Jettison Engineering Trajectory Tool

The Jettison Engineering Trajectory Tool (JETT) performs the jettison analysis function for any orbiting asset. It provides a method to compute the relative trajectories between an orbiting asset and any jettisoned item (intentional or unintentional) or sublimating particles generated by fluid dumps to assess whether an object is safe to jettison, or if there is a risk with an item that was inadvertently lost overboard. The main concern is the interaction and possible recontact of the jettisoned object with an asset. This supports the analysis that jettisoned items will safely clear the vehicle, ensuring no collisions. The software will reduce the jettison analysis task from one that could take days to complete to one that can be completed in hours, with an analysis that is more comprehensive than the previous method. It provides the ability to define the jettison operation relative to International Space Station (ISS) structure, and provides 2D and 3D plotting capability to allow an analyst to perform a subjective clearance assessment with ISS structures. The developers followed the SMP to create the code and all supporting documentation. The code makes extensive use of the object-oriented format of Java and, in addition, the Model-View-Controller architecture was used in the organization of the code, allowing each piece to be independent of updates to the other pieces. The model category is for maintaining data entered by the user and generated by the analysis. The view category provides capabilities for data entry and displaying all or a portion of the analysis data in tabular, 2D, and 3D representation. The controller category allows for handling events that affect the model or view(s). The JETT utilizes orbital mechanics with complex algorithms. Since JETT is written in JAVA, it is essentially platform-independent.

Zaczek, Mariusz↗

Risk methodology overview

Some considerations of risk estimation, how risk is measured, and how risk analysis decisions are made are discussed. Specific problems of carbon fiber release are discussed by reviewing the objective, describing the main elements, and giving an example of the risk logic and outputs.

Credeur, K. R.↗

Innovations in underground hydrogen storage with multiphysics simulations, optimization, and monitoring: A review

Underground Hydrogen Storage (UHS) is a promising solution for large-scale energy storage and a critical component in advancing low-carbon energy system. Ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS necessitates a comprehensive understanding of multiphysical interactions driven by cyclic pore fluid pressure fluctuations and coupled physicochemical processes. Here, this review examines the key geomechanical responses in UHS, including rock property variations under cyclic loading, fracture evolution and propagation, reservoir stress sensitivity, and fault stability. It also explores the impact of geochemical and microbial reactions on geomechanical characteristics. We provide an in-depth analysis of Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical-Chemical (THMC) coupled numerical simulations, highlighting their potential for future multi-scale modeling. Limitations of current machine learning (ML) approaches in addressing UHS challenges are highlighted, emphasizing the need for innovative ML-based methodologies. Operational strategies for hydrogen injection and production are reviewed, focusing on safety, efficiency, and economic viability. The necessity for multi-objective optimization (MOO) to balance storage efficiency, risk mitigation, and cost-effectiveness is also discussed. Current monitoring technologies are evaluated to ensure safe and efficient UHS operations. Finally, this review identifies critical knowledge gaps and underscores the importance of advancing geomechanical understanding under multiphysics-coupling. We highlight the need for ML-driven multiphysics theories, enhanced modeling techniques, and robust optimization strategies to improve UHS performance. This study serves as a comprehensive reference for future research and the large-scale implementation of UHS systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Development and Analysis of the Automated Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool Parametric Study Wrapper

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) studies all aspects of spacecraft end-of-life and orbital debris measurement, modeling, and mitigation. The reentry safety group within the ODPO uses the Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) to calculate the casualty risk due to reentry of spacecraft and other types of orbital debris. ORSAT models spacecraft as a collection of fragments that break apart from the parent object at a pre-defined “breakup altitude.” It then calculates the trajectory and aero-heating of these fragments to determine which fragments are completely destroyed and which survive to the ground and pose a risk to human population. Because of the historically high computational cost of these calculations, many simplifying assumptions have been made in the traditional calculation and analysis process used by the ODPO, some of which have been shown by recent research by the ODPO and others to be incorrect. Improvements to the ORSAT code and advancements in computer technology have vastly decreased the program’s processing time, and have allowed the ODPO to develop a capability for large-scale parametric studies and Monte Carlo reentry simulations that can aid in both the initial spacecraft design and provide more detailed and accurate risk analysis to spacecraft operators.

Smith, Andrew N.↗

Pressurized-Water Reactor Core Design using Multi-Objective Plant Fuel Reload Optimization Platform

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway Plant Reload Optimization Project aims to develop an integrated, comprehensive framework offering an all-in-one solution for reload evaluations with a special focus on optimization of core design. The optimization of the fuel loading pattern is one of the most important considerations in reducing the amount of new fuel used in the core. Due to thousands of possible options of core configuration, finding optimal solutions is an unachievable task for a human. The Plant ReLoad Optimization (PRLO) platform which supports artificial-intelligence-based reactor core designing is now fully capable of handling realistic problems. The PRLO Platform development project aims to build a reactor core design tool that includes reactor safety and fuel performance analyses and uses artificial intelligence to support the optimization of core design solutions. The NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II) optimizer was developed and tested within RAVEN (Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment) to handle many constraints by using an augmented objectives methodology. The demonstration was performed with constrained multi-objective optimization of a 17 × 17 pressurized-water reactor core loading patterns to minimize fuel cost and maximize fuel cycle length.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

technology↗

Pre-flight risk assessment in Emergency Medical Service (EMS) helicopters

The Emergency Medical Service (EMS) industry has been the subject of several television and newspaper articles (Harvey and Jensen, 1987) which emphasized the negative aspects, (e.g., fatalities and high accident rates), rather than the life saving services performed. Until recently, the accident rate of the EMS industry has been five times as high as that of other civil helicopters. This high accident rate has been coupled with the dramatic rise in the number of programs. The industry has built from a single service at its inception in 1972, to over 180 in 1987 (Spray, 1987), to the point that 93 percent of the contiguous U.S. is now covered by some type of EMS service. These factors prompted the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) to study the accidents that occurred between May 11, 1978 and December 3, 1986 (NTSB, 1988). The NTSB report concluded that 'Sound pilot judgment is central to safe flight operations.' They further stated that '... factors unique to EMS helicopter operations--such as the influence of the mission itself, program competition, and EMS program management perspectives--can drastically influence pilot judgment during the EMS mission.' One of the most difficult decisions that a pilot must make is whether to accept or decline a mission. A pre-flight risk assessment system (SAFE) was developed at NASA-Ames Research Center for civil EMS operations to aid pilots in making this decision objectively. The ability of the SAFE system to predict mission risk profiles was tested at an EMS facility. The results of this field study demonstrated that the usefulness of SAFE was highly dependent on the type of mission flown. SAFE is now being modified so that it can 'learn' with each mission flown. For example, after flying a mission to a particular site, an EMS pilot would input information about this mission into the system, such as new buildings, wires, or approach procedures. Then, the next time a pilot flew a similar mission or one to the same area, this additional information would be taken into account in computing a risk assessment.

Shively, R. J.↗

Performance Evaluation of Data-Enhanced Hierarchical Control for Grid Operations

This paper presents a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation to evaluate the performance of voltage regulation of Data-Enhanced Hierarchical Control (DEHC). This DEHC uses an advanced distribution management system (ADMS) for grid operations to control legacy and grid-edge devices and coordinate with distributed energy management systems (DERMS) to manage high penetrations of photovoltaics (PV) on a utility distribution system. The HIL platform provides realistic laboratory testing, including accurate modeling (legacy devices, grid-edge devices, and PV) of the real-world distribution system from a utility partner, a real controller (ADMS), software controller DERMS, hardware grid-edge devices, and standard communications protocols. The test results demonstrate functionalities of the integrated platform and the performance of voltage regulation of the coordinated control systems. Based on laboratory testing, the utility can set up the same grid-automation system to manage DERs, legacy devices, and grid-edge devices to achieve their system-level control and operation objectives (e.g., voltage regulation), thus de-risking potential issues such as instability for field deployment.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Flexible Service Contracting for Risk Management within Integrated Transmission and Distribution Systems

The general objective of our project has been to investigate the ability of Independent Distribution System Operators (IDSOs), functioning as linkage agents for Integrated Transmission and Distribution (ITD) systems, to facilitate the flexible availability and usage of reserve in support of ITD system operations. This general objective is in accordance with Order 2222 of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), titled “Participation of Distributed Energy Resource Aggregations in Markets Operated by Regional Transmission Organizations and Independent System Operators”. The Final Rule for FERC Order 2222 was issued on September 17, 2020. The primary contribution of our project is that we have formulated an innovative energy management Transactive Energy Design (TES) approach for ITD systems that provides promising support for our project objective. Specifically, we have developed a new type of IDSO-managed TES design for distribution system operations, as well as new types of swing contracts permitting IDSOs to participate in transmission system operations as providers of reserve harnessed from distribution system resources in return for appropriate compensation. Together, these design elements constitute a scalable market-based approach facilitating efficient reserve procurement for ITD system operations from a fuller range of power resources. The efficacy of our approach has been demonstrated by means of detailed conceptual analyses as well as test case simulations. To implement the latter, we have developed the ITD TES Platform V2.0, a computational platform that permits the modeling and software implementation of ITD system operations over time. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy region has been used as the empirical anchor for the development of this platform. Our conceptual and test-case work has been reported in a Wiley/IEEE Press book, two refereed book chapters, and seven refereed journal articles. The key components comprising the ITD TES Platform V2.0 have been released as documented open-source software at online GitHub repositories.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Success Path Method: Implementation Guidance

This document provides a guide regarding the application of the Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) Success Path Method (SPM) for the management of risk(s) of processes associated with organizational objectives. The current work provides an approach to implement the set of standard (higher level) requirements for the SPM. A companion document for Process Specific Applications, which is current under development, provides additional guidance regarding how the general implementation description detailed here can be adapted to the evaluation of specific processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Success Path Method: Definitions and Technical Requirements

This document provides high-level requirements for the application of the Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) Success Path Method (SPM) for the management of risk(s) of processes associated with organizational objectives. A companion document provides a general guide to the application of the SPM. Another companion document that provides additional guidance regarding how the general guidance can be adapted to the evaluation of specific processes is now under development.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Thermal Reservoir Networks for Modularly Expandable Thermal Microgrids

The Department of Defense (DoD) faces the substantial challenge of cost-effectively retrofitting one to two installations per month, each comprising approximately 1,000 buildings, to improve resilience, reduce energy consumption, and enhance energy supply security. Achieving these objectives requires optimal system selection and effective risk mitigation during system integration. To address this need, we introduce Platform-Based Design (PBD), a structured, hierarchical methodology adapted from other industrial sectors to the domain of energy system retrofits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PBD through a techno-economic feasibility study comparing geothermal-coupled thermal energy networks (TENs) with conventional energy systems for heating, cooling, and powering 17 buildings at Joint Base Andrews (JBA) in Maryland. Our analysis illustrates that the PBD approach enables rigorous, data-driven, sequential decision making, resulting in a family of Pareto-optimal systems, among which the TEN emerged as the most promising solution. The selected TEN design integrates geothermal borefields, heat recovery heat pumps, photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and battery storage. Compared to the baseline system – gas heating combined with air-source chillers – the proposed TEN reduces annual imported energy by 74% and peak electricity demand by 45%, achieves a levelized cost of energy of $\$0.210$/kWh, and substantially enhances resilience. Life-cycle costs increase by approximately 6%, and initial investment costs are about 2.5 times higher than the baseline. However, if central plant infrastructure, district loops, and utility-scale PV and battery systems are privately funded and operated, the initial investment would fall below the baseline system cost. Critical to achieving these significant performance improvements were detailed nonlinear dynamic simulations coupling geothermal heat transfer, energy system operation, and realistic feedback control logic. These simulations identified essential design modifications and control strategy refinements that substantially reduced energy use, peak demand, and compressor shortcycling, thereby improving durability and reliability—issues that would have been significantly more expensive to resolve during operation. Additionally, the verification step highlighted sensitivities to key design parameters that could reduce initial investment by approximately $\$2$ million and reduce annual life-cycle costs more than $\$300,000$. We recommend adopting the PBD methodology for future feasibility studies and TEN pilot projects to gain valuable operational experience. Furthermore, we recommend that DoD invest in transferring and scaling the PBD methodology to other installations. This entails developing standardized computational frameworks and component libraries as well as training industry in conducting PBD. Such investments would enable rapid, robust, reliable, and cost-effective retrofits, supporting DoD’s ambitious energy system modernization goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA's approach to the commercial use of space

NASA planning activities in the area of commercial development of space resources are reviewed. Examples of specific types of commercial space ventures are given, according to three different categories: new commercial high-technology ventures; new commercial application of existing space technology, and commercial ventures resulting from the transfer of existing space programs to the private sector. Basic objectives for reducing technical, financial and institutional risks for commercial space operations are considered. Attention is given to the cooperative working environment encouraged by Joint Endeavor Agreements (JEAs) and Technical Exchange Agreements (TEAs) between industrial organizations in the development of space systems. Benefits of the commercial development of space resources include the production of purer pharmaceuticals for the treatment of cancers, kidney diseases, and diabetes; and the development of ultra-pure semiconductor crystals for use in next generation electronic equipment.

Gillam, I. T., IV↗

An approach to the design of a simple, radiation hard, highly integrated and reliable, lightweight satellite bus

A spacecraft system concept has been developed which uses ion propulsion and a small, simple, lightweight design approach to carry out a focused lunar science mission. The design relies on existing technology to achieve high reliability and the possibility of a near-term launch. Key characteristics of the mission are highly focused objectives, low launch costs, minimization of development risks and design simplicity. The spacecraft for the lunar mission is described with particular emphasis on the design and reliability approaches used. The degree of adaptability of this basic class of spacecraft bus is discussed with particular emphasis on its application as a technology testbed vehicle. Several potential mission applications are reviewed.

Nock, K. T.↗

Planning: Management of predictability and uncertainty and keeping abreast of developments

The purpose of this study is to propose method to set up and control of a space mission plan such as that of the HERMES spaceplane. The interest of this subject, other than its complexity, is due to the need to manage imprecision and uncertainty during a mission, as well as changes in between missions. Under these conditions, the set up and control of a flight plan require certain special attention and this has led us to define a certain number of qualities: mastery of complexity in order to resolve conflicts between activities: configuration, resource and time management; consideration of various criteria such as risk minimization or the attainment of mission objectives; robustness and flexibility to allow for hazards and deviations from the norm during operation without having to draw up new plans; aptness for replanning by making changes to the plan without having to set up the whole plan again; and memorization and explanation facility in order to manage developments between missions.

Bastien-Thiry, Christophe↗

Modeling aerosol emissions from the combustion of composite materials

The use of advanced composite materials (ACM) in the B-2 bomber, composite armored vehicle, and F-22 advanced tactical fighter has rekindled interest concerning the health risk of burned or burning ACM. The objective of this work was to determine smoke production from burning ACM and its toxicity. A commercial version of the UPITT II combustion toxicity method developed at the University of Pittsburgh, and subsequently refined through a US Army-funded basic research project, was used to established controlled combustion conditions which were selected to evaluate real-world exposure scenarios. Production and yield of toxic species varied with the combustion conditions. Previous work with this method showed that the combustion conditions directly influenced the toxicity of the decomposition products from a variety of materials.

Roop, J. A.↗