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At least 307 records · Page 17

Recent seismicity at Ceboruco Volcano (Mexico)

Magma and related hydrothermal fluid movement, and their interaction with solid rock, in active volcanic regions, generate a wide variety of seismic waves whose characterization can mitigate the risk of a potential eruption. Located in the western region of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Ceboruco Volcano, whose last eruptive period was 1870–1875, is considered to be one of the most hazardous volcanoes in Mexico. We have conducted a detailed study of the seismicity in the surroundings of Ceboruco's volcanic edifice to assess the current state of this volcano. A dense temporary seismic network with 25 seismic stations in an area of 16 km × 16 km was deployed between November 2016 and July 2017, as part of the P-24 project of the CeMIEGeo consortium; this effort has allowed the detection of 81 earthquakes concentrated beneath the crater with depths between 4 and 8 km. In this study, we observe that the recorded seismicity occurs in swarms, and we specifically identify four sequences that we characterize in detail via the first focal mechanisms available for this volcano. Our results suggest a change in the local seismicity distribution compared to earlier observations, which reported seismic activity near the volcano edifice associated with fluid migration along zones of weakness related to the extensional stresses of the Tepic-Zacoalco rift. The changes in seismic patterns and obtained focal mechanisms are consistent with observed fluid effects at many geothermal sites worldwide, but also could suggest resumption of activity at this currently dormant volcano.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Development of a versatile, high-temperature, high-throughput ion irradiation system

We report ion irradiation has long been used as a surrogate for neutron irradiation experiments which are comparatively slower, more expensive, and often can leave materials activated and difficult to handle post-irradiation. However, with the growing use of combinatorial synthesis methods and high-throughput, automated characterization techniques, ion irradiation facilities will need to upgrade their capabilities to be able to accommodate these new material platforms. To address this challenge, a high-throughput ion irradiation system has been developed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison Ion Beam Laboratory (IBL). The system is capable of accommodating large sample arrays of arbitrary geometries and heat samples individually using an infrared laser to enable high-temperature, high-throughput ion irradiation while mitigating the risk of annealing the irradiation damage in nearby samples. To control stage motion, laser power, and beam current measurement, among other tasks, the program Chronos was developed which enables automated high-throughput irradiation experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Tree-ring evidence marks year 2022 as the driest spring season in nearly four centuries in the Western Himalayas

The Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayan region is a crucial freshwater source for billions across South Asia, yet its climate remains poorly understood due to limited long-term records. Winter and spring precipitation govern snow accumulation and downstream water availability in dry months particularly across the Western Himalayas (WH), but recent decades show intensifying droughts with unclear long-term context. Here, we have reconstructed a nearly four-century-long spring i.e. February to May (FMAM) precipitation for the Lahaul region of the (WH), an area dominated by the Western Disturbances. This record was developed using moisture-sensitive Cedrus deodara (Deodar) tree-rings from three high-elevation sites. A regional composite tree-ring-width chronology, developed through a Nested Principal Component Analysis and modeled with a nonlinear Generalized Additive Model (GAM) that explains 71 % of the variance during the calibration period. We identified the last two decades as the most precipitation deficit phase and the year 2022 showing the driest FMAM on record. The observed rise in the FMAM dry episodes post 1999 CE in our reconstruction, corresponds to the meteorological records. This recent drying is linked to a northward shift of the subtropical westerly jet and reduced moisture transport, both associated with unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the tropical Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific Ocean. Our results provide compelling evidence of long-term hydroclimatic instability in the WH and emphasize the value of tree-ring records in extending precipitation histories beyond the instrumental observations. Such reconstructions can be benchmarks to validate high-resolution climate models and formulate adaptation policies to mitigate future risks.

Cedrus deodara↗

Marine energy supported multi-energy system planning and operation optimization for sustainable coastal community

The growing need for sustainable energy solutions in coastal areas necessitates the development of integrated systems that leverage abundant marine resources. In this study, a standalone Marine Energy Supported Multi-Energy System (MRE-MES) is designed for sustainable coastal community development, utilizing renewable marine resources, including offshore wind, wave, and solar energy, to address the energy needs of electricity, heat, freshwater, and hydrogen. The proposed MRE-MES incorporates a co-optimization model that simultaneously balances capacity planning and operational efficiency to minimize costs and environmental impacts. The system is tested under different renewable energy penetration levels and demand uncertainties, using a two-stage stochastic programming to account for variability in renewable resources and consumption needs. The experimental results indicate that in the optimal system capacity configuration, the percentage of total renewable energy generation is around 80 %, with or without capacity limitation constraints on PV, water tank, and hydrogen storage. Compared to the worst-case scenario in Monte Carlo experiments, two-stage stochastic optimization results in a more robust decision that effectively mitigates the risks posed by future uncertain demand conditions. In conclusion, the findings highlight the viability of marine energy for providing a resilient, comprehensive energy solution to coastal communities.

Capacity planning↗

A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Composition of Catalytic Coprocessing Products from Molecular Beam Mass Spectra

Demand for the development of an automated and integrated refining process for biofuels has increased in recent years due to the lack of generalized process inspection tools. In bio-oil upgrading processes, all process variables are maintained based on the offline specification of intermediates and products. A lack of real-time product specifications in batch-wise monitoring can cause process failure and wasted resources. Therefore, there is a need for a fast and accurate intermediates/product specification tool that can be used for real-time specification to reduce waste and mitigate the risk of process failure. Here, to address this gap, we developed a machine learning (ML) model for predicting speciated bio-oil composition, including paraffin, iso-paraffins, olefins, naphthene, and aromatics. The model is trained using the mass spectra from upgraded products collected in the vapor phase before condensation and predicts the composition of the condensed product. Training ML models using raw mass spectra is challenging due to numerous overlapped peaks originating from different parent compounds. With this in mind, we propose a protocol that (i) transforms raw mass spectra to chemistry-inspired predefined features and (ii) trains decision tree-based models using these features. Our results show that the random forest model was robust against overfitting and had the highest accuracy compared to other models. Moreover, a stochastic ablation method determined the eight most significant features while maximizing the accuracy. Our protocol facilitates real-time compositional analysis of upgraded bio-oils and thus real-time process monitoring. Additionally, this protocol enables the rational design of efficient catalysts and the determination of optimal process conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Fracture Caging to Limit Induced Seismicity

Geothermal resources offer a stable low-carbon energy source. However, geothermal sites can collocate with the hypocenters of large-magnitude seismic events. Large seismic events pose a risk to public safety and are therefore a liability for efforts to develop geothermal resources. In this work, we propose “fracture caging” to limit induced seismic event magnitudes and present evidence from numerical model predictions, laboratory experiments, and field observations. Fracture caging involves drilling tactical production wells around a geothermal injection zone to contain fluids in fracture-dominated flow systems. Prior to our work, the effect of small wells on the growth of large fractures and on flow through fractures was subject to debate. Our work shows that production wells can impede fracture growth and contain high-pressure fluids in fracture-dominated rocks. This containment offers a mechanism to limit induced seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Multilayer Network Clarifies Prevailing Water Consumption Telecouplings in the United States

Virtual water flows are used to map the indirect water consumption connections implied by the supply chain of a city, region, or country. This information can be used to manage supply chains to achieve environmental policy objectives and mitigate environmental risks to critical supply chains. A limitation of prior work is that these flows are typically analyzed using monolayer networks, which ignores crucial intersectoral or interlayer couplings. Here, in this study, we use a multilayer network to account for such couplings when analyzing blue virtual water flows in the United States. Our multilayer network consists of 115 different regions (nodes), covering the entire conterminous United States; 41 coupled economic sectors (layers); and ∼2 × 10 7 possible links. To analyze the multilayer network, we focus on three fundamental network properties: topological connectivity, mesoscale structure, and node centrality. The network has a high connectivity, with each node being on average connected to roughly 2/3 of the network's nodes. Interlayer flows are a major driver of connectivity, representing ∼54% of all the network's connections. Five different groups of tightly connected nodes (communities) characterize the network. Each community represents a preferred spatial mode of long-range virtual water interaction within the United States. We find that large (populous) cities have a stronger influence than small ones on network functioning because they attract and recirculate more virtual water through their supply chains. Our results also highlight differences between the multilayer and monolayer virtual water network, which overall show that the former provides a more realistic representation of virtual water flows.

Garcia Gonzalez, Susana↗

Contrasting Effects of Urban Land Cover Change and Anthropogenic Heat on Summer Precipitation Over the Yangtze River Delta of China: Analyses From an Atmospheric Moisture Budget Perspective

Both urban land cover (ULC) change and anthropogenic heat (AH) emission are important causes of urban heat island, but their relative contributions to the changes in urban precipitation and the related mechanism remain unclear. Based on numerical simulations utilizing the latest realistic urban fraction and AH data over the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, we found that ULC and AH resulted in nearly opposite effects on precipitation. Various dynamical and thermodynamic processes were involved according to the atmospheric moisture budget analyses. AH increased precipitation particularly during afternoon, and the increases were stronger during heavy precipitation events because of the enhanced moisture convergence effect together with the release of moisture storage previously accumulated in the atmosphere. Differently, ULC reduced mean precipitation mainly due to suppressed evaporation. During weak precipitation events, the suppressed evaporation was largely balanced by the intensified moisture convergence, but during heavy events, ULC caused more pronounced precipitation reduction because the moisture convergence response disappeared and failed to offset the evaporation effect. Here, the relative contributions of different dynamical and thermodynamic processes such as those related to circulation, moisture gradient, and background moisture availability to the temporal variation in the total moisture convergence were further quantified. Overall, our results help better understand the relative roles of different aspects of urbanization on precipitation, and suggest that compared to ULC, reduction in AH emission that is tightly related to the energy consumption structure could be more efficient for mitigating the risk of extreme precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mitigation of hydrogen crossover in liquid alkaline water electrolysers using gas recombination catalysts

The rising demand for hydrogen calls for improvements in the efficiency of liquid alkaline water electrolysers (LAWEs), which can be fulfilled by advanced electrodes or separators. Nevertheless, they also intensify hydrogen crossover and safety concerns, thus mandating efficient mitigation strategies. Here we studied the correlation between cathodes and hydrogen crossover behaviours and mitigated safety risks by designing a gas recombination catalyst (GRC). We attribute the elevated hydrogen crossover associated with platinum-based cathodes to their preferential utilization for the hydrogen evolution reaction that creates elevated hydrogen supersaturation, as evidenced by direct measurements of dissolved hydrogen concentration. Varying the placement of platinum layers relative to the cathode–separator interface also supports this conclusion. The implementation of a GRC reduces hydrogen crossover by 95% without affecting LAWE performance and functions for over 1,000 h at 1 A cm−2. This study provides insights into hydrogen supersaturation and the crossover mechanism, as well as offering a promising pathway to enhance the efficiency and reliability of alkaline water electrolysis.

Liu, Haotian↗

Instantaneous tracking of earthquake growth with elastogravity signals

Rapid and reliable estimation of large earthquake magnitude (above 8) is key to mitigating the risks associated with strong shaking and tsunamis. Standard early warning systems based on seismic waves fail to rapidly estimate the size of such large earthquakes. Geodesy-based approaches provide better estimations, but are also subject to large uncertainties and latency associated with the slowness of seismic waves. Recently discovered speed-of-light prompt elastogravity signals (PEGS) have raised hopes that these limitations may be overcome, but have not been tested for operational early warning. Here we show that PEGS can be used in real time to track earthquake growth instantaneously after the event reaches a certain magnitude. We develop a deep learning model that leverages the information carried by PEGS recorded by regional broadband seismometers in Japan before the arrival of seismic waves. After training on a database of synthetic waveforms augmented with empirical noise, we show that the algorithm can instantaneously track an earthquake source time function on real data. Our model unlocks ‘true real-time’ access to the rupture evolution of large earthquakes using a portion of seismograms that is routinely treated as noise, and can be immediately transformative for tsunami early warning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Large-scale genomic analyses with machine learning uncover predictive patterns associated with fungal phytopathogenic lifestyles and traits

Abstract Invasive plant pathogenic fungi have a global impact, with devastating economic and environmental effects on crops and forests. Biosurveillance, a critical component of threat mitigation, requires risk prediction based on fungal lifestyles and traits. Recent studies have revealed distinct genomic patterns associated with specific groups of plant pathogenic fungi. We sought to establish whether these phytopathogenic genomic patterns hold across diverse taxonomic and ecological groups from the Ascomycota and Basidiomycota, and furthermore, if those patterns can be used in a predictive capacity for biosurveillance. Using a supervised machine learning approach that integrates phylogenetic and genomic data, we analyzed 387 fungal genomes to test a proof-of-concept for the use of genomic signatures in predicting fungal phytopathogenic lifestyles and traits during biosurveillance activities. Our machine learning feature sets were derived from genome annotation data of carbohydrate-active enzymes (CAZymes), peptidases, secondary metabolite clusters (SMCs), transporters, and transcription factors. We found that machine learning could successfully predict fungal lifestyles and traits across taxonomic groups, with the best predictive performance coming from feature sets comprising CAZyme, peptidase, and SMC data. While phylogeny was an important component in most predictions, the inclusion of genomic data improved prediction performance for every lifestyle and trait tested. Plant pathogenicity was one of the best-predicted traits, showing the promise of predictive genomics for biosurveillance applications. Furthermore, our machine learning approach revealed expansions in the number of genes from specific CAZyme and peptidase families in the genomes of plant pathogens compared to non-phytopathogenic genomes (saprotrophs, endo- and ectomycorrhizal fungi). Such genomic feature profiles give insight into the evolution of fungal phytopathogenicity and could be useful to predict the risks of unknown fungi in future biosurveillance activities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Nuclear fuel from saline waters

Growing demand for nuclear fuel is accelerating the need for sustainable uranium resources that ensure long-term supply and mitigate environmental risks. Here, a study now presents an intriguing self-powered methodology that utilizes the motion of falling water droplets to drive uranium recovery from salt lakes.

Wiechert, Alexander I. [Oak Ridge National Laborat↗

Scenarios in IPCC assessments: lessons from AR6 and opportunities for AR7

Scenarios have been an important integrating element in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the understanding of possible climate outcomes, impacts and risks, and mitigation futures. Integration supports a consistent, coherent assessment, new insights and the opportunity to address policy-relevant questions that would not be possible otherwise, for example, which impacts are unavoidable, which are reversible, what is a consistent remaining carbon budget to keep temperatures below a level and what would be a consistent route of action to achieve that goal. The AR6 builds on community frameworks that are developed to support a coherent use of scenarios across the assessment, yet their use in the assessment and the related timelines presented coordination challenges. From lessons within each Working Group (WG) assessment and the cross-WG experience, we present insights into the role of scenarios in future assessments, including the enhanced integration of impacts into scenarios, near-term information and community coordination efforts. Recommendations and opportunities are discussed for how scenarios can support strengthened consistency and policy relevance in the next IPCC assessment cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Principles to adapt financing mechanisms for fully integrated hybrid energy systems

As the electricity sector evolves, and as all energy types (thermal, electric, chemical, etc.) become more coupled, there has been increased interest to develop and deploy hybrid energy systems (HES). This work focuses on fully integrated HES, where there are multiple energy sources and multiple energy products, often coupled through a storage buffer. A significant amount of the available literature on this work describes technology pathways for fully integrated HES; however, it is unclear how financial institutions should treat these systems. Fully integrated HES represent an increase in complexity from their stand-alone counterparts, but they also potentially mitigate financial risk and provide value to the energy system, which has not yet been accounted for in financing mechanisms that could help to enable such systems. This paper provides some examples of fully integrated HES and proposes principles to help adapt financing to adequately capture the value of such systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Performance of photosensors in a high-rate environment for gas Cherenkov detectors

We report the solenoidal large intensity device (SoLID) at Jefferson Lab will push the boundaries of luminosity for a large-acceptance detector, which necessitates the use of a light-gas threshold Cherenkov counter for online event selection. Due to the high luminosity, the single-photon background rate in this counter can exceed 160 kHz/cm 2 at the photosensors. Therefore, it is essential to validate the high-rate limits of the planned photosensors and readout electronics in order to mitigate the risk of failure. We report on the design and an early set of studies carried out using a small Cherenkov counter in a high-rate environment up to 60 kHz/cm 2 , in Hall C at Jefferson Lab. Commercially available multi-anode photomultipliers (MaPMT) and low-cost large-area picosecond photodetectors (LAPPD) were tested using the JLab FADC250 modules for readout. The test beam results show that the MaPMT array and the internal stripline LAPPD can detect and identify single-electron and pair-production events in high-rate environments. Due to its higher quantum efficiency, the MaPMT array provided a better separation between the single-electron and the pair-production events compared to the internal stripline LAPPD. A GEANT4 simulation confirms the beam test performance of our counter device.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Hardware design and testing of the generic rear transition module for the global trigger subsystem of ATLAS Phase-II Upgrade

Abstract In the framework of the ATLAS experiment’s Phase-II Upgrade at the High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC), new and improved trigger hardware and algorithms will be implemented onto a single-level, 10 μs-latency architecture. The Global Trigger is a new subsystem which will bring event-filter capabilities by performing offline-like algorithms on full-granularity calorimeter data. The implementation of the functionality is firmware-focused and composed of several processing nodes, which are hosted on identical hardware, made up of an Advanced Telecommunications Computing Architecture (ATCA) front board, called Global Common Module (GCM), and a rear transition module (RTM), called Generic RTM (GRM). The GRM, which was developed to mitigate the risks deriving from the complex design and power management of the GCM, features an advanced Xilinx Versal Prime system-on-chip and can handle communication with the GCM and Front-End Link eXchange (FELIX) subsystem and trigger processors through 124 25.8 Gb/s transceiver links, for readout and control. Additionally, the GRM mounts a Low-Power GigaBit Transceiver (lpGBT) chip which enables emulation of the detector front-ends for integration tests. This paper presents the GRM hardware design and its testing.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗

Biodiversity and Global Health: Intersection of Health, Security, and the Environment

One of the biggest consequences of large-scale environmental change is the loss of biodiversity. Recent studies predict a loss of 1 million species in the near future. Biodiversity loss and land use change through anthropogenic disturbance are known to affect disease exposure, disease severity, and disease impacts. It is becoming increasingly clear that biodiversity loss will lead to an increase in infectious diseases in certain regions. Changes in biodiversity may contain important signatures for prediction of infectious diseases and outbreaks. Here, we argue that areas of high or rapid biodiversity loss will be critical to monitor under the umbrella of global health security. Global Health Security consists of the actions and activities required to reduce the impact of public health events in populations living in different geographic regions and across international borders. Like infectious diseases, climate change and other causes of environmental changes do not respect international borders and are becoming more widespread in all parts of the world. Here, the relationships among biodiversity, climate and environmental changes, and pathogen prevalence are dynamic, context dependent, and complex. Accounting for this complexity requires the inclusion of the environment sector, presently missing, when evaluating the potential of global health security actions for mitigating disease risks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Stability Analysis of Parallel Connected Bidirectional WPT System

This paper presents a stability analysis of parallel-connected bi-directional series-series resonant network wireless power transfer (WPT), optimized for Electric Vehicle (EV) charging and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) applications. The study addresses critical stability challenges in systems integrated with diverse distributed energy resources (DERs), including photovoltaics, fuel cells, wind turbines, energy storage systems, and the AC grid. The stability of such integrated DC grid systems is paramount for ensuring reliable operation, particularly under varying power flow conditions and dynamic interactions between parallel WPT systems. The analysis included system impedance characterization, state-space modeling, and open and closed-loop stability evaluations. The results demonstrated that the integration of a robust control architecture effectively mitigates instability risks and supports scalable, efficient operation. This work underscores the converter's adaptability and its potential for large-scale deployment in wireless EV charging infrastructures and integrated DC grid systems.

Asa, Erdem [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000190884812)↗