Results for “risk informed design” — Page 17

NASA NTRS2010

From Paper to Production: An Update on NASA's Upper Stage Engine for Exploration

The NASA/industry team responsible for developing the J-2X Upper Stage Engine for the Constellation Program's Ares I and Ares V launch vehicles has made significant progress toward moving the design from paper to production during the past year. The J-2X exemplifies the Constellation goal of using proven technology and experience from more than 50 years of United States spaceflight experience and seeking where possible to employ common hardware in the Ares I crew launch vehicle and the Ares V cargo launch vehicle. The J-2X will power the Ares I upper stage to place the Orion crew vehicle in orbit. For the Ares V, the J-2X will place the Earth departure stage (EDS) and lunar lander in orbit and later re-start to send the Orion and lander to the Moon. Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne (PWR) is under contract to develop and produce the engine, leveraging its flight-proven LH2/LOX, gas generator cycle J-2 and RS-68 engine capabilities, recent experience with the X-33 aerospike XRS-2200 engine, and development knowledge of the J-2S tap-off cycle engine. The J-2X employs a gas generator operating cycle designed to produce 294,000 pounds of thrust in primary operating mode for the Ares I and Ares V ascent phases. It also has a secondary mode, during which it operates at 80 percent thrust by altering its mixture ratio to perform the TLI burn for the Ares V lunar sortie and lunar cargo missions. The J-2X development philosophy is based on proven hardware, an aggressive development schedule, and early risk reduction. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and PWR began development of the J-2X in June 2006. The government/industry team of more than 600 people within NASA and PWR successfully completed the Critical Design Review (CDR) in November 2008, following extensive risk mitigation testing. The team is working toward a first flight of the J-2X on the Orion 1 mission in 2014. This paper will discuss the J-2X development background and provide top-level information on design and testing to date. Details will be provided on overcoming challenges such as gas generator instability, turbine blade life, and nozzle extension selection and materials.

Kynard, Mike↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preliminary Analysis of Separation Standards for Urban Air Mobility using Unmitigated Fast-Time Simulation

This research provides a preliminary analysis of various separation standards for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. This study focuses on understanding and analyzing potential conflicts between UAM flights and conflicts between UAM and conventional aircraft. Fast-time simulations are conducted with a projected high-density of UAM traffic scenario and historical conventional non-UAM traffic flying under Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) or Visual Flight Rules (VFR) in Dallas Fort Worth (DFW) airspace. The conflicts are analyzed by examining losses of separation and near mid-air collisions of UAM flights and unmitigated risk of collision. A set of varied separation standards are used to investigate the impact of the new UAM operations on safety. The preliminary conflict analysis results will help inform separation standards development and in airspace and route design activities for future UAM operations.

Urban Air Mobility↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Field Guide to Corralling the Chaos: A Conceptual Framework for Using Models to Guide Opportunistic Field Studies of Natural Disturbances

Watersheds regulate biogeochemical processes and provide ecosystem services to human societies, but disturbances can fundamentally alter these processes across space and time. Determining when and where to sample to capture disturbance impacts in watersheds remains a central challenge. Manipulation studies and long-term monitoring are often constrained by scope, and opportunistic studies often lack pre-disturbance data needed to statistically determine disturbance impacts. We identify a persistent knowledge gap: the absence of a clear, transferable framework to guide opportunistic disturbance research where pre-disturbance data collection is not a feasible option. To address this gap, we present a conceptual framework that intentionally integrates modeling and empirical observation in an iterative, stepwise model–experiment workflow. We demonstrate its application through two contrasting case studies: wildfire impacts on headwater streams using a pre-disturbance preparedness approach, and saltwater flooding impacts on coastal forests using an ‘ex-post-facto’ approach. From these applications, we assess strengths, limitations, and the critical role of team science for transferability across disturbance types and study designs. Broadly, this framework offers a scalable path towards more rigorous, timely, and actionable disturbance science that can inform watershed management, hazard risk reduction, and ecosystem resilience.

Coastal Biogeochemistry↗

NASA NTRS2007

Application of Risk within Net Present Value Calculations for Government Projects

In January 2004, President Bush announced a new vision for space exploration. This included retirement of the current Space Shuttle fleet by 2010 and the development of new set of launch vehicles. The President's vision did not include significant increases in the NASA budget, so these development programs need to be cost conscious. Current trade study procedures address factors such as performance, reliability, safety, manufacturing, maintainability, operations, and costs. It would be desirable, however, to have increased insight into the cost factors behind each of the proposed system architectures. This paper reports on a set of component trade studies completed on the upper stage engine for the new launch vehicles. Increased insight into architecture costs was developed by including a Net Present Value (NPV) method and applying a set of associated risks to the base parametric cost data. The use of the NPV method along with the risks was found to add fidelity to the trade study and provide additional information to support the selection of a more robust design architecture.

Grandl, Paul R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Coordination Logic for Repulsive Resolution Maneuvers

This paper presents an algorithm for determining the direction an aircraft should maneuver in the event of a potential conflict with another aircraft. The algorithm is implicitly coordinated, meaning that with perfectly reliable computations and information, it will in- dependently provide directional information that is guaranteed to be coordinated without any additional information exchange or direct communication. The logic is inspired by the logic of TCAS II, the airborne system designed to reduce the risk of mid-air collisions between aircraft. TCAS II provides pilots with only vertical resolution advice, while the proposed algorithm, using a similar logic, provides implicitly coordinated vertical and horizontal directional advice.

Narkawicz, Anthony J.↗

NASA NTRS2020

NASA Risk Management: Speaking the Format of Risk

NASA's Risk Management Program is designed to communicate risk at all levels of the Agency. This presentation serves as an introduction to NASA Risk Management principles and risk-informed decision making. The contents of this presentation are intended to familiarize attendees of NASA's Quality Leadership Forum with how to incorporate risk communication into their practices.

Dacko, Taylor↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilizing Advanced Air Mobility Rotorcraft Tools for Wildfire Applications

Over the past decade, due in large part to heavy investment in the field of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), significant progress in rotorcraft-focused modeling tools has been made. Such progress has notably increased AAM rotorcraft modeling capabilities in the topics of conceptual design, preliminary design, and more recently flight dynamics. Yet, due to recent and persistent increases in extreme weather events, an emerging interest has been raised in utilizing such modeling capabilities for aiding in emergency relief efforts and other public good missions. This paper uses wildfire fighting as a representative public good mission and demonstrates the relevance of the NASA Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology (RVLT) rotorcraft toolchain to such missions. An emphasis is placed on flight dynamics modeling and control because of the hazards and challenges associated with the atmospheric environment of wildfires. In this work, the NASA FlightCODE tool was used to analyze both a UH-60 and the NASA six-passenger quadcopter reference model hovering in an experimentally informed wildfire turbulent environment. Preliminary results of this study estimate actuator usage exceedances and disturbance rejection capabilities of the vehicles’ translational rate command systems. Leveraging the RVLT toolchain, refinement and expansion of this work could lead to handling qualities envelope estimation and design optimization for wildfire turbulent environments. This would provide pilots with additional information to make real-time decisions in high-risk scenarios and begins preparations for simulating these dangerous environments for pilot training and experimentation.

Rotorcraft↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilizing Advanced Air Mobility Rotorcraft Tools for Wildfire Applications

Over the past decade, due in large part to heavy investment in the field of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), significant progress in rotorcraft-focused modeling tools has been made. Such progress has notably increased AAM rotorcraft modeling capabilities in the topics of conceptual design, preliminary design, and more recently flight dynamics. Yet, due to recent and persistent increases in extreme weather events, an emerging interest has been raised in utilizing such modeling capabilities for aiding in emergency relief efforts and other public good missions. This paper uses wildfire fighting as a representative public good mission and demonstrates the relevance of the NASA Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology (RVLT) rotorcraft toolchain to such missions. An emphasis is placed on flight dynamics modeling and control because of the hazards and challenges associated with the atmospheric environment of wildfires. In this work, the NASA FlightCODE tool was used to analyze both a UH-60 and the NASA six-passenger quadcopter reference model hovering in an experimentally informed wildfire turbulent environment. Preliminary results of this study estimate actuator usage exceedances and disturbance rejection capabilities of the vehicles’ translational rate command systems. Leveraging the RVLT toolchain, refinement and expansion of this work could lead to handling qualities envelope estimation and design optimization for wildfire turbulent environments. This would provide pilots with additional information to make real-time decisions in high-risk scenarios and begins preparations for simulating these dangerous environments for pilot training and experimentation.

Rotorcraft↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying Medical Risk on a Long Duration Lunar Mission: A Demonstration of NASA’s IMPACT Tradespace Analysis Tool

Background NASA’s human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in-mission medical care. The distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and constraints on the medical evacuation of astronauts. Mass, volume, power, and data will be limited while higher demands will be placed on the crew to manage medical care. NASA’s Moon to Mars exploration strategy lays out increasingly complex Artemis missions both in terms of duration and operations. In these more challenging deep space missions, it is important to quantitatively estimate the human medical risk to inform a traditional heuristic approach to medical risk. Prior tools have been developed for missions in low Earth orbit, but a new tool is required to plan for future exploration missions. Methods IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a risk assessment tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design by quantitatively estimating mission medical risk. IMPACT v1.0 includes a novel evidence library baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; the addition of medical resources; and the ability for rapid and iterative analysis. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life, consideration of the need for return to definitive care (medical evacuation), and an estimate of crew time affected due to medical conditions. A notional long duration lunar orbit and lunar surface design reference mission (DRM) was chosen with a 4-astronaut crew to represent a sustained exploration Artemis mission. Results/Discussion Overall, IMPACT successfully quantified medical risk and derived an optimized medical system to support crew on a long duration lunar mission. In this DRM, the calculated loss of crew life from a medical event was 0.008 events per mission, risk of potential need for evacuation was 0.30 events per mission, and cumulative crew time affected by medical conditions was 103 days. The medical conditions that most contributed to overall medical risk were decompression sickness, trauma conditions, and respiratory failure. The conditions that had the largest effects on crew performance included musculoskeletal injuries and lunar dust exposure. The IMPACT-generated medical system included resources that target the most common and highest risk conditions. This systematic analysis demonstrates the value of the IMPACT tool in medical system design for human exploration spaceflight missions.

Missions to Mars↗

NASA NTRS2024

Quantifying Medical Risk on a Long Duration Lunar Mission: A Demonstration of NASA’s IMPACT Tradespace Analysis Tool

Background NASA’s human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in-mission medical care. The distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and constraints on the medical evacuation of astronauts. Mass, volume, power, and data will be limited while higher demands will be placed on the crew to manage medical care. NASA’s Moon to Mars exploration strategy lays out increasingly complex Artemis missions both in terms of duration and operations. In these more challenging deep space missions, it is important to quantitatively estimate the human medical risk to inform a traditional heuristic approach to medical risk. Prior tools have been developed for missions in low Earth orbit, but a new tool is required to plan for future exploration missions. Methods IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a risk assessment tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design by quantitatively estimating mission medical risk. IMPACT v1.0 includes a novel evidence library baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; the addition of medical resources; and the ability for rapid and iterative analysis. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life, consideration of the need for return to definitive care (medical evacuation), and an estimate of crew time affected due to medical conditions. A notional long duration lunar orbit and lunar surface design reference mission (DRM) was chosen with a 4-astronaut crew to represent a sustained exploration Artemis mission. Results/Discussion Overall, IMPACT successfully quantified medical risk and derived an optimized medical system to support crew on a long duration lunar mission. In this DRM, the calculated loss of crew life from a medical event was 0.008 events per mission, risk of potential need for evacuation was 0.30 events per mission, and cumulative crew time affected by medical conditions was 103 days. The medical conditions that most contributed to overall medical risk were decompression sickness, trauma conditions, and respiratory failure. The conditions that had the largest effects on crew performance included musculoskeletal injuries and lunar dust exposure. The IMPACT-generated medical system included resources that target the most common and highest risk conditions. This systematic analysis demonstrates the value of the IMPACT tool in medical system design for human exploration spaceflight missions.

Missions to Mars↗

DOE OSTI2024

Incorporating A Risk-Informed, Performance-Based Concept into Nuclear Fuel and Materials Development for Advanced Reactors

The NRC’s regulatory concept for advanced reactors under 10 CFR Part 53 promotes the use of an RIPB concept. RIPB is usually referenced as a general, overarching concept. This paper is focused on how to, and if it would be worthy to, incorporate an RIPB concept into nuclear fuel and materials development for advanced reactors. This paper proposes three potential RIPB applications for nuclear fuel and materials development, including RIPB test matrix development, RIPB test matrix reduction, and RIPB design optimization. This paper discusses the projected benefits from incorporating RIPB in reducing development timeline, cost, and regulatory risk.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilizing Open-Source Earth Observations to Inform the Toa Baja Municipality’s Flood Risk Mitigation Efforts and Educate the Public

Global climate changes contribute to more intense and frequent tropical storms, subjecting places like Toa Baja, Puerto Rico to critical damage. Known as “the underwater city” due to its propensity to flood, residents of Toa Baja face constant flood risk. During extreme tropical storm events, such as Hurricane Maria in 2017, residents experienced up to 20 feet of inundation. The NASA DEVELOP National Program collaborated with the Municipio Autónomo de Toa Baja, ResilientSEE-PR, and the MIT Urban Risk Lab to supplement 2018 FEMA HEC-RAS flood maps that designate 63% of Toa Baja as a flood plain. This analysis provides a high-resolution interpretation of flood risk through two lenses; susceptibility and vulnerability. For this analysis, susceptibility consists of nine weighted layers: NDVI, landcover, slope, elevation, topographic wetness index, height above nearest drainage, saturated hydraulic conductivity, distance to water, and storm surge. These factors are consistently used to evaluate susceptibility to flood, but their weights vary by analysis. Vulnerability consists of population, informal settlements, and building density, which were given equal weight. Susceptibility and vulnerability were combined to map flood risk. This analysis used a bivariate legend to understand the different levels of risk along a spectrum from low susceptibility and low vulnerability (low risk) to high susceptibility and high vulnerability (high risk). Data processed in Google Earth Engine, which identified historical inundation on various occasions, were used to validate the flood susceptibility layers. Results showed 89% of areas designated as high susceptibility are located within the floodway designated by the FEMA HEC-RAS maps. The eastern region of Toa Baja is most at risk for flooding due to high susceptibility to flooding along with a high density of population, buildings, and informal settlements. The resulting map also reveals the presence of smaller high-risk areas all around the municipality. This analysis provides scientific evidence for flood risk mitigation in Toa Baja by highlighting areas that might be impacted by strong floods in the future. Additionally, these results are communicated in an Esri ArcGIS StoryMap, an accessible platform that can easily inform the public about the flood risk in their neighborhood.

Adriana Le Compte↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design and Testing of an Approach to Automated In-Flight Safety Risk Management for sUAS Operations

An onboard risk management automation design is presented based on run-time assurance principles, as well as the concept for In-Time Aviation Safety Management Systems (IASMS) as described by the National Academies. The automation is designed to operate independently of the autopilot and perform real-time risk assessment spanning multiple classes of hazards, predict constraint violations, and track autopilot states. In the event of elevated risk conditions or predicted constraint violations, the automation will select from a set of available contingencies and trigger autopilot mode changes if necessary to mitigate risk exposure. The onboard automation also informs the remote operator/pilot of what the independent monitor is observing and any contingency decisions or actions that may arise during flight. Details of an implementation of this design and results of verification and validation activities, as required to meet stringent NASA software and system assurance standards, are also presented. This includes simulation and flight testing using small unmanned aircraft systems.

Ersin Ancel↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bench-Scale Testing of a High Efficiency, Ultra-Compact Process for Pre-Combustion CO 2 Capture (Final Report)

The overarching objective of this bench-scale study is to field-validate the technical feasibility of a membrane- and adsorption-enhanced water gas shift (WGS) reaction process that employs a carbon molecular sieve (CMS) membrane reactor (MR) followed by an adsorption reactor (AR) for pre-combustion CO 2 capture while demonstrating progress towards achievement of the overall performance goals of CO 2 capture with 95% CO 2 purity at a cost of electricity (COE) of 30% less than the baseline capture approaches. The main goal of this bench-scale project is to advance the proposed MR-AR transformative CO 2 capture technology to a sufficient maturity level so that our present industrial partners (M&PT and Worley) can potentially adapt the technology for further small pilot-scale testing. The project began at TRL 4, as the system prototype had already been validated in the laboratory on simulated syngas (as part of project DE-FE0026423). The project ended at TRL 5, via scaling-up of the prototype system and testing it on actual syngas at a host site (CAER at the University of Kentucky (UKy)). The project was carried-out in two different phases: In Phase I (during BP1 of the project), the team designed, constructed, and assembled the bench-scale experimental MR-AR system, prepared the membranes, adsorbents, and catalysts, tested the bench-scale unit with simulated syngas to validate functionality, and prepared a preliminary TEA of the technology. In Phase II (during BP2 of the project), the team installed the unit at the test site at the UKy site and completed all utility connections and hookups, field-tested the novel MR-AR process in the bench-scale system using real syngas, collected and analyzed experimental data, and completed a detailed TEA of the technology. A key aim of the project was to identify and address the technical and process risks and to generate information to advance the technology to the next stage of development. All project milestones and success criteria were met. Specifically, the team: (i) designed, constructed and assembled a bench scale system that handled 1 – 5 scfm syngas and tested its functionality with simulated syngas; (ii) prepared high performance CMS membrane tubes (ID: 3.5 mm, OD: 5.7 mm, 30” long) that meet the target H 2 permeance ( > 1 m 3 /(m 2 .hr.bar) or (> 370.3 GPU)) and a target H 2 /CO selectivity >80 at the relevant temperature (up to 300oC) and pressure conditions (up to 25 bar) with a <10% decline in performance over each 250 hr. testing period (iii) procured commercial sour-shift catalyst in sufficient quantity and prepared up to 10 kg of pelletized adsorbent for use at relevant conditions (250oC 2.5wt.% and target sorbent attrition rate < 0.2; (iv) installed the bench-scale unit at the test site (UKy) and tested the MR-AR technology using real syngas for over 250 hr. for both static and flow experiments; (v) updated the TEA analysis based on bench-scale data and met CO 2 capture goals of 95% CO 2 purity at a cost of electricity 30% less than baseline capture approaches. The CMS membranes, HTC adsorbents and catalysts employed all exhibited very robust and stable performance during the long-term run (over a >250 hr live syngas run). Furthermore, the proposed MR-AR IGCC system achieved a LCOE with a N 2 sale price of $\$$ 30/ton, with N 2 compression (no N 2 compression) of 101.2 $\$$/MWh (95.3 $\$$/MWh), which represents a 29.8% (33.9%) LCOE reduction in the baseline IGCC with carbon capture of 144.2 $\$$/MWh. The proposed MR-AR IGCC delivers a CO 2 capture cost of 44.8 $\$$/tonne (39.9 $\$$/tonne) vs 98.1 $\$$/tonne of the baseline capture case and a net power production of 586 MWe (623 MWe) vs 556 MWe of the baseline capture case.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cyber100 Compass [SWR 23-64]

Cyber100 Compass ("Compass") is a unique risk assessment framework that will enable grid system planners to understand and mitigate cybersecurity risk for grids transitioning to high levels of renewable generation, including 100%. The idea for Compass was developed by NREL based on past work on high-renewable grids and a series of discussions with DOE. Compass is part of Cyber100, a portfolio of proposed research activities that would greatly expand understanding of cybersecurity for high-renewable grids. Compass is a desktop application designed with a user-friendly interface. The tool gathers information from users, conducts probabilistic backend calculations, and outputs a series of visualizations to help users understand and analyze their cybersecurity risks based on the unique features of their future grid. Compass will take as inputs the values for different conditions and produce a risk score of the resulting grid. By trying different configurations, system planners can compare the resultant risks against their own risk tolerance and decide which system-of-system controls to implement as they transition toward a 100% renewable grid.

Martin, Maurice↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantitative Risk Analysis of High Safety Significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants using IRADIC Technology

This report documents the activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2021 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) Risk Assessment project. In FY-2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a strong technical basis to support effective, licensable, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. An integrated risk assessment technology for the DI&C systems (IRADIC technology) was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate risk-informed capability to quantitatively and accurately estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for the High Safety Significant Safety-related (HSSSR) DI&C systems, (2) develop an advanced risk assessment technology to support transition from analog to DI&C technologies for nuclear industry, (3) assure the long-term safety and reliability of vital HSSSR DI&C systems, (4) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals and deal with the expensive licensing justifications from regulatory insights, the IRADIC technology is instructive for nuclear vendors and utilities to effectively lower the costs associated with digital compliance and speed industry advances by: (1) defining an integrated risk-informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade, including hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying systematic and risk-informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify responding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the individual level, system level, and plant level, (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks; thus, to support the development, licensing, and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies on nuclear power plant (NPPs). In this report, an approach for performing software CCF analysis, given limited data, is developed and demonstrated using a case study of a highly redundant digital reactor trip system. Consequence analysis is also performed based on different accident scenarios. Results indicate that plant modernization including the improvement of HSSSR DI&C systems will make great benefits to plant safety by providing more safety margins to accident management. In addition, a novel approach is proposed in this report for the quantification of software hazards when sufficient operational and testing data available. The method incorporates software development quality as well as strong analysis techniques to identify and link software defects to potential failure modes. The approach includes both semantic and test-based analysis to detect failures that can exist in different stages of the software development life cycle. This method is applied to an advanced human system interface relevant to reactor trip safety developed from the APR 1400 design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Technical Resilience Navigator

The Technical Resilience Navigator (TRN) is a systematic approach to identifying vulnerabilities with energy and water systems, and prioritizing solutions that reduce risk. The ultimate outcome of the TRN is a set of actionable resilience solutions that address the site's most important gaps in resilience and enhance the ability to maintain mission continuity. The TRN is designed to step users through this planning process, providing a framework to: assign roles and responsibilities; collect and document information and data; document key inputs and outputs for each of the TRN modules (Site Level Planning, Baseline Development, Risk Assessment, Solution Development, and Solution Prioritization); document prioritized list of resilience solutions; and track progress through the entire process. Currently "software as a service" at the listed website.

Rotondo, Julia↗

NASA NTRS2017

Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including environmental factors, factors associated with the fall event, mass and anthropometric values of the astronaut, BMD characteristics, characteristics of the relationship between BMD and bone strength and bone fracture characteristics. The uncertainty in these factors is captured through the use of parameter distributions and the fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. To determine parameter sensitivity, a correlation coefficient is found between the sample set of each model parameter and the calculated fracture probabilities. Each parameters contribution to the variance is found by squaring the correlation coefficients, dividing by the sum of the squared correlation coefficients, and multiplying by 100. Results: Sensitivity analyses of BFxRM simulations of preflight, 0 days post-flight and 365 days post-flight falls onto the hip revealed a subset of the twelve factors within the model which cause the most variation in the fracture predictions. These factors include the spring constant used in the hip biomechanical model, the midpoint FRI parameter within the equation used to convert FRI to fracture probability and preflight BMD values. Future work: Plans are underway to update the BFxRM by incorporating bone strength information from finite element models (FEM) into the bone strength portion of the BFxRM. Also, FEM bone strength information along with fracture outcome data will be incorporated into the FRI to fracture probability.

mathematical models↗