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At least 307 records · Page 17

Data for: A Synoptic System for Capturing Ecosystem Control Points Across Terrestrial-Aquatic Interfaces

The investigation of how climate change and water level fluctuations impact variable and interconnected ecosystems, like the interfaces between terrestrial and aquatic environments, requires the collection and integration of many data types. We describe an integrative and autonomous environmental monitoring approach that uses environmental sensors and data loggers to monitor surface water, groundwater, soil, and vegetation changes and generate essential data for predictive models. We established the network at seven sites along the Chesapeake Bay and Lake Erie coastlines, including a large-scale flood manipulation experiment, collectively generating over three million observations per month. Such sensor networks hold great promise for tracking and comprehending environmental changes where land and water intersect. The sensor system and overall approach to sensor management that we have designed is intended to be widely accessible for research teams spanning in size from an individual investigator to large multi-institution projects. This dataset shows example data generated by the sensor network described above. Data output for data loggers connected to groundwater water quality sondes measuring dissolved oxygen, pH, oxidative redox potential (ORP), groundwater elevation, groundwater salinity and temperature, and groundwater elevation; replicate soil moisture and conductivity probes installed at 10 and 30 cm below the ground surface; rainfall and solar radiation; and mean sap flow from 8 replicate probes. Sensors are installed at upland forest (UP), wetlands (W), and transitional locations between these ecosystems (TR). Example datasets are from Goodwin Islands in the Chesapeake Bay and Portage River along the Lake Erie coastline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MSASGCN : Multi-Head Self-Attention Spatiotemporal Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Traffic flow forecasting is an essential task of an intelligent transportation system (ITS), closely related to intelligent transportation management and resource scheduling. Dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies in traffic data make traffic flow forecasting to be a challenging task. Most existing research cannot model dynamic spatial and temporal correlations to achieve well-forecasting performance. The multi-head self-attention mechanism is a valuable method to capture dynamic spatial-temporal correlations, and combining it with graph convolutional networks is a promising solution. Therefore, we propose a multi-head self-attention spatiotemporal graph convolutional network (MSASGCN) model. It can effectively capture local correlations and potential global correlations of spatial structures, can handle dynamic evolution of the road network, and, in the time dimension, can effectively capture dynamic temporal correlations. Experiments on two real datasets verify the stability of our proposed model, obtaining a better prediction performance than the baseline algorithms. The correlation metrics get significantly reduced compared with traditional time series prediction methods and deep learning methods without using graph neural networks, according to MAE and RMSE results. Compared with advanced traffic flow forecasting methods, our model also has a performance improvement and a more stable prediction performance. We also discuss some problems and challenges in traffic forecasting.

Cao, Yang↗

Foldy: An open-source web application for interactive protein structure analysis

Foldy is a cloud-based application that allows non-computational biologists to easily utilize advanced AI-based structural biology tools, including AlphaFold and DiffDock. With many deployment options, it can be employed by individuals, labs, universities, and companies in the cloud without requiring hardware resources, but it can also be configured to utilize locally available computers. Foldy enables scientists to predict the structure of proteins and complexes up to 6000 amino acids with AlphaFold, visualize Pfam annotations, and dock ligands with AutoDock Vina and DiffDock. In our manuscript, we detail Foldy’s interface design, deployment strategies, and optimization for various user scenarios. We demonstrate its application through case studies including rational enzyme design and analyzing proteins with domains of unknown function. Furthermore, we compare Foldy’s interface and management capabilities with other open and closed source tools in the field, illustrating its practicality in managing complex data and computation tasks. Our manuscript underlines the benefits of Foldy as a day-to-day tool for life science researchers, and shows how Foldy can make modern tools more accessible and efficient.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Southeast Regional CO 2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA): Preliminary Regional Assessment of Potential Storage Complexes, Including Capacities and Costs, Based on Application of NRAP and SCO2T (Deliverable 3.3) Storage Complexes

The Recipient will assist with the field validation of one or more risk assessment toolsets through: 1) collaborative research; 2) sharing of relevant datasets, information, and technical insights from field efforts; and 3) other modeling and simulation toolsets as they are developed. Collaborative research could include, but is not limited to: 1) demonstrating use of field data for improved leakage pathway characterization, uncertainty reduction, and risk management and uncertainty workflows; 2) testing and validation of a specific National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tool using site specific data; and 3) improved modeling or reduced-order modeling of geophysical monitoring.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Median bed-material sediment particle size across rivers in the contiguous US

Abstract. Bed-material sediment particle size data, particularly the median sediment particle size (D50), are critical for understanding and modeling riverine sediment transport. However, sediment particle size observations are primarily available at individual sites. Large-scale modeling and assessment of riverine sediment transport are limited by the lack of continuous regional maps of bed-material sediment particle size. We hence present a map of D50 over the contiguous US in a vector format that corresponds to approximately 2.7 million river segments (i.e., flowlines) in the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) dataset. We develop the map in four steps: (1) collect and process the observed D50 data from 2577 U.S. Geological Survey stations or U.S. Army Corps of Engineers sampling locations; (2) collocate these data with the NHDPlus flowlines based on their geographic locations, resulting in 1691 flowlines with collocated D50 values; (3) develop a predictive model using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning method based on the observed D50 data and the corresponding climate, hydrology, geology, and other attributes retrieved from the NHDPlus dataset; and (4) estimate the D50 values for flowlines without observations using the XGBoost predictive model. We expect this map to be useful for various purposes, such as research in large-scale river sediment transport using model- and data-driven approaches, teaching environmental and earth system sciences, planning and managing floodplain zones, etc. The map is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4921987 (Li et al., 2021a).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Empowering Scientific Discovery Through Computing at the Advanced Photon Source

This paper explores the challenges and solutions for managing and processing the vast amount of data generated by the Advanced Photon Source (APS), a synchrotron light source facility producing ultra-bright x-rays for diverse scientific domains. With 68 experimental beamlines covering materials research, biology, and more, the APS serves a wide user base across academia, government, and industry. The ongoing upgrade of the APS storage ring and installation of new instruments will amplify data generation and processing demands. This paper discusses the approach to address these demands through automated data processing using standardized workflows that produce faster scientific insights. The APS Data Management System coordinates various data related tasks to manage storage, data transfer, metadata cataloging, data processing, and interfaces with tools provided by Globus. Through integration with the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF), APS users can efficiently access high-performance computing resources. Standardized workflows have led to reduced computational burdens on scientists and greater accessibility of high performance computing resources. We demonstrate how standardization and collaboration enable scientists to rapidly convert raw data into meaningful scientific results, establishing a streamlined path from data collection to analysis and ultimately to publication.

Parraga, Hannah↗

Mechanistic Approach to Analyzing and Improving Unconventional Hydrocarbon Production [Slides]

DOE research is developing the physical basis and tools needed to manage pressure effectively to increase recovery efficiency. By coupling fast, accurate physics with machine learning, DOE is producing science-based platforms any operator can use. DOE’s research portfolio is targeting hydrocarbon transport at multiple scales, with the goal of increasing recovery efficiency. DOE’s research has led to new, fast & accurate platforms for predicting gas production from fractured shales. Using data from the MSEEL-I site to calibrate our physics-based model, we have early results on pressure management. We have shown that both mechanical and chemical processes in the matrix can negatively impact production.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Developing Novel Performance Measures for Traffic Congestion Management and Operational Planning Based on Connected Vehicle Data

In this study, the authors present their efforts in exploring a new type of traffic data, referred to as internet-connected vehicle (ICV) data, for traffic congestion management and operational planning. Most currently manufactured vehicles contain onboard GPS and cellular modules, and they constantly connect to automobile manufacturers' clouds via cellular networks and upload their status. Some automobile manufacturers have recently redistributed the nonpersonal part of such data, such as geolocation, to third-party organizations for innovative applications. Compared with the traditional vehicle GPS data, the ICV data contain high-resolution GPS waypoints accompanied with the vehicles' abnormal moving events (e.g., hard braking). The ICV data also have huge potential in congestion management and operational planning. They explore to identify and analyze traffic congestion on both freeways and arterials using the ICV data. The ICV data adopted for this research are redistributed by Wejo Data Service, representing 10%-15% of all moving vehicles in the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) area in Texas. Through one case study for a freeway segment and one for an arterial segment, new traffic performance metrics based on the characteristics of ICV data have been presented. The highlights of these efforts are as follows: (I) queue length and propagation at freeway bottlenecks can be directly measured based on where and when most internet-connected vehicles slow down and join the queue; (II) an internet-connected vehicle's actual delay time on arterials can be directly measured according to its slow movement percentage, without assuming the nondelay travel speed; and (III) the ICV data set are also combined with the high-resolution traffic signal events to generate a ground-truth time-space diagram (TSD) on arterials - a common visualization of arterial signal performance for transportation planning and operations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Effectiveness of Residue and Tillage Management on Runoff Pollutant Reduction from Agricultural Areas

Highlights No-till and no-till residue systems were effective in reducing runoff particulate and total nutrients but increased dissolved nutrients. Maintaining >30% residue cover reduced most runoff constituents, irrespective of no-till or tillage. No-till-residue prevented runoff nutrient losses and benefitted farm revenue by avoiding tillage. Abstract. Reduced tillage management conservation practices (No-till and Reduced-till) are widely adopted in agriculture; however, understanding their overall effectiveness for water quality protection is challenging. A meta-analysis was conducted to understand and quantify the effectiveness of residue and tillage management on runoff, sediment, and nutrient losses from agricultural fields. Annual runoff and the associated sediment, and nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) loads were compiled from 60 peer reviewed research articles published across the United States and Canada. A total of 1575 site-years of data were categorized into tillage (<30% surface cover), no-tillage (<30% surface cover), tillage with residue (>30% surface cover), no-tillage with residue (>30% surface cover), and pasture management. No-tillage, no-tillage-residue, and tillage-residue managements were evaluated for their effectiveness in reducing runoff, nutrients, and sediment loads compared to tillage. Synthesized and surveyed corn yield data were used to evaluate the economic cost effectiveness of no-tillage-residue management with respect to tillage. Across the site years (1968-2019) studied, median runoff depth for no-tillage and no-tillage-residue were 84% and 70% greater than tillage and tillage-residue management, respectively. No-tillage-residue management had up to 86% less sediment losses than tillage systems, on average, for both >30% and <30% surface cover. No-tillage-residue management was most effective, with a positive performance effectiveness of 65% to 90% in controlling sediments, particulate, and total nutrient losses in runoff compared to tillage. Cost effectiveness analysis revealed the benefits of no-tillage-residue management in reducing nutrient loads and increasing net-farm revenue by avoiding tillage operational costs. Except for dissolved phosphorus, no-tillage-residue management cost effectiveness for sediments and nutrient loads ranged from negative $6 to negative $102 per every Mg or kg of load reduction, indicating it had both economic and environmental benefits compared to tillage management. Overall, these results indicate that over the long-term, no-tillage and tillage, combined with greater than 30% residue cover, can effectively reduce sediment and nutrient losses. This work highlights the importance of crop residues on the soil surface to reduce runoff losses, even in no-tillage systems. Keywords: Conservation tillage, No-tillage, Residue cover, Tillage, Water quality.

Agriculture↗

It begins - digitizing the Rocky Flats Collection

From 1952 to 1989, the Rocky Flats Plant near Golden, Colorado, manufactured plutonium cores - the nuclear weapon pits that still exist in the nation’s nuclear weapons stockpile. Not only did Rocky Flats personnel produce these plutonium cores, they also documented every facet of this highly technical process. Moreover, Rocky Flats was a premier center for actinide research and development, with these data as relevant today as they were yesterday

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

TRAILS Output Files

Overview This data repository contains ZIP files that store compressed versions of the output of running the WaterPaths utility planning and management tool in the DU Re-Evaluation mode (to download the tool, please see this GitHub repository). The tool was used to simulate the six-utility North Carolina Research Triangle problem. Details on the contents of each ZIP file can be seen below. Data details Temporal range: Weekly data for 2,344 weeks from 2015 to 2060 (45 years). Spatial range: Six water utilities in the North Carolina Research Triangle region (0: Chapel Hil/OWASA, 1: Durham, 2: Cary, 3: Raleigh, 4: Pittsboro, and 5: Chatham) File types: CSV and OUT Different solutions available The solution numbers correspond to the different pathway strategies (henceforth referred to as "solutions") discussed in paper's main and supporting text (abstract and link to the paper here). They are as follows: Sol92: The Durham-focused pathway strategy Sol132: The Raleigh-focused pathway strategy Sol140: The regionally-robust pathway strategy Objectives files These files can be accessed by unzipping solXX_objectives_pathways.zip that contains 1,000 Objectives_RDMXX_solsXX_to_XX.csv files. Each CSV file will consist of a row representing all the objective values for that specific solution, while every six columns represents the reliability, restriction frequency, infrastructure net present value ($ mil), peak financial cost, worst-case cost, and unit cost ($ per MG; in that order) for each of the six utilities. There will be 1,000 such files, denoting the performance of the six utilities across the 1,000 deeply uncertain states of the world (DU SOWs). Pathway files These files can be accessed by unzipping solXX_objectives_pathways.zip that contains 1,000 Pathways_sXX_RDMXX.out file. Each OUT corresponds to the set of infrastructure being triggered in a specific DU SOW, and each file will have the name file will consist of four tab-delimited columns that are described as follows: Realization: The realization in which an infrastructure options being triggered utility: The utility currently triggering infrastructure week: The week in which a specific infrastructure option is being triggered infra.: The infrastructure option being triggered If the OUT file contains only the header line, no infrastructure was triggered for that specific DU SOW. Policies files These files can be obtained by unzipping Policies.zip. Each of the 1,000 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly water use restriction policies for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: 0rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 0 (values between 0 and 1) 1rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 1 (values between 0 and 1) 2rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 2 (values between 0 and 1) 3rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 3 (values between 0 and 1) 4rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 4 (values between 0 and 1) 5rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 5 (values between 0 and 1) 0transf: transfer volume for utility 0 (in MGD) 1transf: transfer volume for utility 1 (in MGD) 2transf: transfer volume for utility 2 (in MGD) 3transf: transfer volume for utility 3 (in MGD) 4transf: transfer volume for utility 4 (in MGD) 5transf: transfer volume for utility 5 (in MGD) Water Sources files These files can be obtained by unzipping WaterSources_subset.zip. Each of the 100 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly state variables at each water source for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: Xvolume: available water volume from source X (in MGD) Xs_area: surface area of source X (in ACF) Xdemand: demand drawn from a water source from source X (in MGD) Xup_spill: upstream spillage from source X (in MGD) Xww_inflow: wastewater inflow from source X (in MGD) Xcatch_inflow: upstream catchment inflow to source X (in MGD) Xevap: evaporation multiplier for source X (values between 0 and 1) Xds_spill: downstream spillage from source X (in MGD) X_Y_alloc_cap: the allocated capacity from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) X_Y_alloc_dem: the allocated demand from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) Xtrmt_alloc_Y: the allocated treatment capacity from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) Utilities files These files can be obtained by unzipping Utilities_subset.zip. Each of the 100 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly state variables at each utility for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: Xst_vol: total available storage volume of utility X (in MG) Xcapacity: total storage capacity of utility X (in MG) Xnet_inf: : net inflow for all storage infrastructure for utility X (in MGD) Xst_rof: short term ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xst_stor_rof: short-term storage ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xst_trmt_rof: short-term treatment ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_rof: long-term ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_stor_rof: long-term storage ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_trmt_rof: long-term treatment ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xrest_demand: restricted demand for utility X (in MGD) Xunrest_demand: unrestricted demand for utility X (in MGD) Xunfulf_demand: unfulfilled demand for utility X (in MGD) Xwastewater: wastewater return for utility X (in MGD) Xtreat_capacity: total treatment capacity for utility X (in MG) Xcont_fund: reserve (contingency) fund balance for utility X Xins_pout: insurance payout for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xins_price: insurance price for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xinfra_npv: infrastructure net present value for utility ($mil) Xst_vol: total available storage volume of utility X (in MG) Xdebt_serv: debt service for utility X (usually once per year if the infrastructure is triggered; % annual volumetric revenue) Xstor_vol: total stored volume (in MGD) Xobs_ann_dem: observed annual demand for utility X (in MGD) Xproj_dem: projected annual demand for utility X (in MGD) Xpv_debt_serv: present value of debt service payments for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xgross_rev: gross revenue for utility X ($mil) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

Artificial Intelligence↗

Forming the Future of Agrohydrology

Agricultural water management is increasingly prioritized throughout the world as producers are tasked with meeting growing crop demand while also managing environmental resources more sustainably. Likewise, agriculture is increasingly modifying the terrestrial water cycle. In response to these dynamics, the informal research discipline of agrohydrology continues to grow, fueled by a new era of rapidly evolving research tools and big data availability. While many researchers are actively invested in agrohydrology as a research topic, there remains a gap in formalizing this valuable discipline. This article aims to: (a) identify key research themes in agrohydrology, (b) conceptualize future research topics within each theme, and (c) estimate a timeframe before topics become pressing (i.e., before a topic becomes a limiting factor in advancing water management in an agricultural context). This commentary is meant to guide the trajectory of an evolving discipline of agrohydrology, the practice of agricultural water management at multiple nested scales, and the conversation of the invested public.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Psychosocial drivers of land management behaviour: How threats, norms, and context influence deforestation intentions

Understanding how private landholders make deforestation decisions is of paramount importance for conservation. Behavioural frameworks from the social sciences have a lot to offer researchers and practitioners, yet these insights remain underutilised in describing what drives landholders' deforestation intentions under important political, social, and management contexts. Using survey data of private landholders in Queensland, Australia, we compare the ability of two popular behavioural models to predict future deforestation intentions, and propose a more integrated behavioural model of deforestation intentions. We found that the integrated model outperformed other models, revealing the importance of threat perceptions, attitudes, and social norms for predicting landholders' deforestation intentions. Social capital, policy uncertainty, and years of experience are important contextual moderators of these psychological factors. Here, we conclude with recommendations for promoting behaviour change in this deforestation hotspot and highlight how others can adopt similar approaches to illuminate more proximate drivers of environmental behaviours in other contexts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unraveling complex causal processes that affect sustainability requires more integration between empirical and modeling approaches

Scientists seek to understand the causal processes that generate sustainability problems and determine effective solutions. Yet, causal inquiry in nature–society systems is hampered by conceptual and methodological challenges that arise from nature–society interdependencies and the complex dynamics they create. Here, we demonstrate how sustainability scientists can address these challenges and make more robust causal claims through better integration between empirical analyses and process- or agent-based modeling. To illustrate how these different epistemological traditions can be integrated, we present four studies of air pollution regulation, natural resource management, and the spread of COVID-19. The studies show how integration can improve empirical estimates of causal effects, inform future research designs and data collection, enhance understanding of the complex dynamics that underlie observed temporal patterns, and elucidate causal mechanisms and the contexts in which they operate. These advances in causal understanding can help sustainability scientists develop better theories of phenomena where social and ecological processes are dynamically intertwined and prior causal knowledge and data are limited. The improved causal understanding also enhances governance by helping scientists and practitioners choose among potential interventions, decide when and how the timing of an intervention matters, and anticipate unexpected outcomes. Methodological integration, however, requires skills and efforts of all involved to learn how members of the respective other tradition think and analyze nature–society systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

CityBES v2021

City Buildings, Energy, and Sustainability (CityBES) is a web-based data and computing platform, focusing on energy modeling and analysis of a city's building stock to support district or city-scale building energy efficiency programs. CityBES uses an international open data standard, CityGML, to represent and exchange 3D city models. CityBES employs EnergyPlus to simulate building energy use and savings from energy efficient retrofits. Other CityBES features include energy benchmarking, district heating and cooling system modeling, rooftop PV analysis, building performance visualization, heat resilience modeling, as well as urban scale mapping of microclimate and heat vulnerability at census tract level. Different from other tools, CityBES uses integrated open and standard 3D city building data and models each individual building using EnergyPlus. CityBES can be used by urban planners, city energy managers, building owners, utilities, energy consultants and researchers.

Hong, Tianzhen↗

Data Integration and Visualization for Enhanced Resilience and Sustainability in Hydropower (DIVERS-H)

U.S. hydropower plants face potential threats from shrinking water supply, rising demands, and warmer stream temperatures from various causes. Power plant owners, operators, and regulators require new tools to take advantage of and interpret the diverse range of scientific data being produced by both observational methods (for example, satellite, radar, stream gauges) and computer modeling methods that evaluate and predict how earth's dynamic systems (atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and sea ice) are changing and interacting. Combining datasets such as these with AI-based analyses introduces a novel decision support system to help users anticipate and address potential impacts on power generation stations. This new technology has been named DIVERS-H for "Data Integration and Visualization for Enhanced Resilience and Sustainability in Hydropower." In Phase I, technical feasibility was established with the development and demonstration of all the new technologies that are required. Most notably, DIVERS-H will use new artificial intelligence (AI) methods to capture the complex dynamics of water availability, demand, and environmental changes. In addition, new data management software was developed, and a prototype user interface was implemented as the precursor to a full scale decision support system. With technical research complete, the project focus now shifts to development of a commercial software product to provide users with actionable insight into water availability and the risk/resilience of critical systems at their locations of interest. Although DIVER-H was originally conceived as a tool for hydroelectric power applications, the same underlying technology can be readily applied to other water-consuming systems including coal, natural gas, oil, and nuclear power plants.

Chaudhary, Aashish [Kitware, Inc., Clifton Park, N↗

Circular Economy for Photovoltaics in Service of Energy Transition

The challenge of energy transition is immediate and immense; current projections target 75 TW of photovoltaics (PV) capacity by 2050. While any transition to renewable energy technology is preferable to the current fossil-based system, it is ideal to improve the sustainability of PV to minimize negative environmental and social impacts. Circular economy (CE) has been proposed as a method to improve the sustainability of PV, especially for emerging materials like perovskites. CE is a set of actions, principles, and systems which aim to design out waste and keep products and materials in use, to reduce environmental impacts and enable sustainable development. At the most basic level, CE is "reduce, reuse, recycle", the R-actions, in ranked order. CE of a PV technology can be metricized in a variety of ways, such as the Material Circularity Indicator (Smith and Jones, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2019) or recycling rates. Unfortunately, standard CE metrics have several shortcomings for measuring renewable energy technologies in the context of deployment for energy transition (Figge 2018, Saidani 2019): 1) Only measure mass flows; 2) De-prioritization of the use phase in favor of mass circularity when scoring; and 3) Tight focus on a single product scale The use phase and energy flows of PV are key to energy transition, and therefore need to be quantified. Additionally, correlating product-scale to system-scale is necessary for quantifying the environmental impacts of energy transition. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) can address some of these concerns, but also focuses on a single product scale and has trouble capturing the dynamics of system-scale energy transition, such as the interaction of module lifetime with manufacturing demands for energy transition deployment schedules. Therefore, we developed an open-source Python-based system dynamics model to quantify the mass, energy and carbon impacts of CE R-actions for PV technologies in the energy transition; PV in the CE (PV ICE) (Ovaitt & Mirletz 2021). The tool captures supply chains from material extraction through end of life, incorporating 5 circular end of life pathways. PV ICE takes in any evolving bill of materials, module properties and deployment schedule to support researchers and decision makers with data-backed insights. In this work, we quantify and compare proposed CE sustainable PV module designs and lifecycle management strategies, spanning currently commercialized technologies, government and industry technology targets, and several low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) emerging PV technologies, including perovskites. Our analyses capture the projected evolutions of lifetime, efficiency and material circularity of these PV technologies, as well as their material supply chains. Our analyses emphasize the importance of examining a suite of metrics to identify priorities and tradeoffs, and inform design or lifecycle management decisions holistically. Previous analyses have demonstrated the central importance of PV module lifetime to support energy transition while minimizing impacts. High levels of material circularity (>90%) enable minimizing lifecycle wastes, can reduce virgin material demands if paired with improving efficiency, but demonstrate tradeoffs in energy return on investment. In the fervor of new material and technology development, it is important to remember that CE is not the end goal; decarbonization and energy transition are the end goal. CE should be used in service to improve the sustainability of PV, and R-actions evaluated for their usefulness and efficacy to this end.

carbon↗