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Wireless Sensor Networks for Developmental and Flight Instrumentation

Wireless sensor networks (WSN) based on the IEEE 802.15.4 Personal Area Network and ZigBee Pro 2007 standards are finding increasing use in home automation and smart energy markets providing a framework for interoperable software. The Wireless Connections in Space Project, funded by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center, is developing technology, metrics and requirements for next-generation spacecraft avionics incorporating wireless data transport. The team from Stennis Space Center and Mobitrum Corporation, working under a NASA SBIR grant, has developed techniques for embedding plug-and-play software into ZigBee WSN prototypes implementing the IEEE 1451 Transducer Electronic Datasheet (TEDS) standard. The TEDS provides meta-information regarding sensors such as serial number, calibration curve and operational status. Incorporation of TEDS into wireless sensors leads directly to building application level software that can recognize sensors at run-time, dynamically instantiating sensors as they are added or removed. The Ames Research Center team has been experimenting with this technology building demonstration prototypes for on-board health monitoring. Innovations in technology, software and process can lead to dramatic improvements for managing sensor systems applied to Developmental and Flight Instrumentation (DFI) aboard aerospace vehicles. A brief overview of the plug-and-play ZigBee WSN technology is presented along with specific targets for application within the aerospace DFI market. The software architecture for the sensor nodes incorporating the TEDS information is described along with the functions of the Network Capable Gateway processor which bridges 802.15.4 PAN to the TCP/IP network. Client application software connects to the Gateway and is used to display TEDS information and real-time sensor data values updated every few seconds, incorporating error detection and logging to help measure performance and reliability in relevant target environments. Test results from our prototype WSN running the Mobitrum software system are summarized and the implications to the scalability and reliability for DFI applications are discussed. Our demonstration system, incorporating sensors for life support system and structural health monitoring is described along with test results obtained by running the demonstration prototype in relevant environments such as the Wireless Habitat Testbed at Johnson Space Center in Houston. An operations concept for improved sensor process flow from design to flight test is outlined specific to the areas of Environmental Control and Life Support System performance characterization and structural health monitoring of human-rated spacecraft. This operations concept will be used to highlight the areas where WSN technology, particularly plug-and-play software based on IEEE 1451, can improve the current process, resulting in significant reductions in the technical effort, overall cost and schedule for providing DFI capability for future spacecraft. RELEASED -

Alena, Richard↗

NASA Crew Launch Vehicle Approach Builds on Lessons from Past and Present Missions

The United States Vision for Space Exploration, announced in January 2004, outlines the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) strategic goals and objectives, including retiring the Space Shuttle and replacing it with a new human-rated system suitable for missions to the Moon and Mars. The Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) that the new Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) lofts into space early next decade will initially ferry astronauts to the International Space Station and be capable of carrying crews back to lunar orbit and of supporting missions to Mars orbit. NASA is using its extensive experience gained from past and ongoing launch vehicle programs to maximize the CLV system design approach, with the objective of reducing total lifecycle costs through operational efficiencies. To provide in-depth data for selecting this follow-on launch vehicle, the Exploration Systems Architecture Study was conducted during the summer of 2005, following the confirmation of the new NASA Administrator. A team of aerospace subject matter experts used technical, budget, and schedule objectives to analyze a number of potential launch systems, with a focus on human rating for exploration missions. The results showed that a variant of the Space Shuttle, utilizing the reusable Solid Rocket Booster as the first stage, along with a new upper stage that uses a derivative of the RS-25 Space Shuttle Main Engine to deliver 25 metric tons to low-Earth orbit, was the best choice to reduce the risks associated with fielding a new system in a timely manner. The CLV Project, managed by the Exploration Launch Office located at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, is leading the design, development, testing, and operation of this new human-rated system. The CLV Project works closely with the Space Shuttle Program to transition hardware, infrastructure, and workforce assets to the new launch system . leveraging a wealth of lessons learned from Shuttle operations. The CL V is being designed to reduce costs through a number of methods, ranging from validating requirements to conducting trades studies against the concept design. Innovations such as automated processing will build on lessons learned from the Shuttle, other launch systems, Department of Defense operations experience, and subscale flight tests such as the Delta Clipper-Experimental Advanced (DCXA) vehicle operations that utilized minimal touch labor, automated cryogen ic propellant loading , and an 8-hour turnaround for a cryogenic propulsion system. For the CLV, the results of hazard analyses are contributing to an integrated vehicle health monitoring system that will troubleshoot anomalies and determine which ones can be solved without human intervention. Such advances will help streamline the mission operations process for pilots and ground controllers alike. In fiscal year 2005, NASA invested approximately $4.5 billion of its $16 bill ion budget on the Space Shuttle. The ultimate goal of the CLV Project is to deliver a safe, reliable system designed to minimize lifecycle costs so that NASA's budget can be invested in missions of scientific discovery. Lessons learned from developing the CLV will be applied to the growth path for future systems, including a heavy lift launch vehicle.

Dumbacher, Daniel L.↗

Affordable Development Strategy for NEP Nuclear Systems

One nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) reactor systems under consideration is a hydride moderated thermal spectrum reactor fueled by high assay low enriched uranium (HALEU). While such a reactor is expected to yield the lightest HALEU reactor design, its development challenges grow exponentially with increasing mission demands, most notably power output, specific weight of the overall system (which may require operation at temperatures exceeding 1200 K), service lifetime, and human-rated reliability. Two of the greatest cost drivers are full-powered nuclear demonstrations and extensive material development campaigns, so it is important to consider options that can minimize the need for or complexity of such tasks. This paper discusses a structured framework being developed for assessing how NEP design choices, such as materials selection, neutronic features, and heat-removal technologies, can translate into project risk and how project performance goals can be traded with development cost.Reactors operating at high temperatures often require cutting-edge heat transfer technologies and creep-resistant materials. Use of new materials in high temperature reactors brings additional complication beyond those common to any new space materials development campaign. For example, such materials may not possess necessary neutronic cross-sectional or neutronic irradiation data. Similarly, use of new materials may significantly influence core neutronics; in some extreme cases, neutronic reactivity feed-back of certain new materials can vary during their service life as radiation damage impacts the scattering cross-section. In an affordable development approach, high fidelity modeling and simulation tools are used to identify and characterize potential ‘knees-in-the-curves’ in the relationship that exists between the mission characteristics and the project risk. Of particular significance is use of modern uncertainty management and variance reduction methods to perform gap analyses that feed into phenomena identification and ranking tables (PIRT) commonly used to communicate nuclear readiness levels. Model-based measurements techniques are used to design sub-scale experiments as a substitute to minimize orcompletely eliminate the need for nuclear demonstrations.This paper will describe the approach and present preliminary results. It will lay the groundwork for developing a set of metrics that can be broadly characterized as system nuclear readiness levels and advancement degree of difficulty for nuclear systems. Equally importantly, a goal of this paper is to initiate a dialogue among stakeholders on what is the sufficient level of maturity that is required for launching a demonstration unit.

Dasari V Rao↗

A Study of the Use of Contact Loading to Simulate Low Velocity Impact

Although numerous studies on the impact response of laminated composites have been conducted, there is as yet no agreement within the composites community on what parameter or parameters are adequate for quantifying the severity of an impact event. One of the more interesting approaches that has been proposed uses the maximum contact force during impact to "quantify" the severity of the impact event, provided that the impact velocity is sufficiently low. A significant advantage of this approach, should it prove to be reliable, is that quasi-static contact loading could be used to simulate low velocity impact. In principle, a single specimen, loaded quasi-statically to successively increasing contact loads could be used to map the entire spectrum of damage as a function of maximum contact force. The present study had as its objective assessing whether or not the maximum contact force during impact is a suitable parameter for characterizing an impact. The response of [+/-60/0(sub 4)/+/-60/0(sub 2)](sub s) laminates fabricated from Fiberite T300/934 graphite epoxy and subjected to quasi-static contact loading and to low velocity impact was studied. Three quasi-static contact load levels - 525 lb., 600 lb., and 675 lb. - were selected. Three impact energy levels - 1.14 ft.-lb., 2.0 ft.-lb., and 2.60 ft.-lb. - were chosen in an effort to produce impact events in which the maximum contact forces during the impact events were 525 lb., 600 lb., and 625 lb., respectively. Damage development was documented using dye-penetrant enhanced x-ray radiography. A digital image processing technique was used to obtain quantitative information about the damage zone. Although it was intended that the impact load levels produce maximum contact forces equal to those used in the quasi-static contact experiments, larger contact forces were developed during impact loading. In spite of this, the damage zones developed in impacted specimens were smaller than the damage zones developed in specimens subjected to the corresponding quasi-static contact loading. The impacted specimens may have a greater tendency to develop fiber fracture, but, at present, a quantitative assessment of fiber fracture is not available. In addressing whether or not contact force is an adequate metric for describing the severity of an impact event, the results of this study suggest that it is not. In cases where the quasi-static load level and the maximum contact force during impact were comparable, the quasi-statically loaded specimens consistently developed larger damage zones. It should be noted, however, that using quasi-static damage data to forecast the behavior of impacted material may give conservative estimates of the residual strength of impacted composites.

Highsmith, Alton L.↗

Inflatable Space Structures Technology Development for Large Radar Antennas

There has been recent interest in inflatable space-structures technology for possible applications on U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) missions because of the technology's potential for high mechanical-packaging efficiency, variable stowed geometry, and deployment reliability. In recent years, the DOD sponsored Large Radar Antenna (LRA) Program applied this new technology to a baseline concept: a rigidizable/inflatable (RI) perimeter-truss structure supporting a mesh/net parabolic reflector antenna. The program addressed: (a) truss concept development, (b) regidizable materials concepts assessment, (c) mesh/net concept selection and integration, and (d) developed potential mechanical-system performance estimates. Critical and enabling technologies were validated, most notably the orbital radiation durable regidized materials and the high modulus, inflatable-deployable truss members. These results in conjunction with conclusions from previous mechanical-packaging studies by the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Special Program Office (SPO) were the impetus for the initiation of the DARPA/SPO Innovative Space-based Antenna Technology (ISAT) Program. The sponsor's baseline concept consisted of an inflatable-deployable truss structure for support of a large number of rigid, active radar panels. The program's goal was to determine the risk associated with the application of these new RI structures to the latest in radar technologies. The approach used to define the technology maturity level of critical structural elements was to: (a) develop truss concept baseline configurations (s), (b) assess specific inflatable-rigidizable materials technologies, and (c) estimate potential mechanical performance. The results of the structures portion of the program indicated there was high risk without the essential materials technology flight experiments, but only moderate risk if the appropriate on-orbit demonstrations were performed. This paper covers both programs (LRA and ISAT) in two sections, Parts 1 and 2 respectively. Please note that the terms strut, tube, and column are all used interchangeably and refer to the basic strut element of a truss. Also, the paper contains a mix of English and metric dimensional descriptions that reflect prevailing technical discipline conventions and common usage.

Freeland, R. E.↗

Excavator Design Validation

The Excavator Design Validation tool verifies excavator designs by automatically generating control systems and modeling their performance in an accurate simulation of their expected environment. Part of this software design includes interfacing with human operations that can be included in simulation-based studies and validation. This is essential for assessing productivity, versatility, and reliability. This software combines automatic control system generation from CAD (computer-aided design) models, rapid validation of complex mechanism designs, and detailed models of the environment including soil, dust, temperature, remote supervision, and communication latency to create a system of high value. Unique algorithms have been created for controlling and simulating complex robotic mechanisms automatically from just a CAD description. These algorithms are implemented as a commercial cross-platform C++ software toolkit that is configurable using the Extensible Markup Language (XML). The algorithms work with virtually any mobile robotic mechanisms using module descriptions that adhere to the XML standard. In addition, high-fidelity, real-time physics-based simulation algorithms have also been developed that include models of internal forces and the forces produced when a mechanism interacts with the outside world. This capability is combined with an innovative organization for simulation algorithms, new regolith simulation methods, and a unique control and study architecture to make powerful tools with the potential to transform the way NASA verifies and compares excavator designs. Energid's Actin software has been leveraged for this design validation. The architecture includes parametric and Monte Carlo studies tailored for validation of excavator designs and their control by remote human operators. It also includes the ability to interface with third-party software and human-input devices. Two types of simulation models have been adapted: high-fidelity discrete element models and fast analytical models. By using the first to establish parameters for the second, a system has been created that can be executed in real time, or faster than real time, on a desktop PC. This allows Monte Carlo simulations to be performed on a computer platform available to all researchers, and it allows human interaction to be included in a real-time simulation process. Metrics on excavator performance are established that work with the simulation architecture. Both static and dynamic metrics are included.

Pholsiri, Chalongrath↗

NASA's Space Launch System Progress Report

Exploration beyond Earth will be an enduring legacy for future generations, confirming America's commitment to explore, learn, and progress. NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) Program, managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center, is responsible for designing and developing the first exploration-class rocket since the Apollo Program's Saturn V that sent Americans to the Moon. The SLS offers a flexible design that may be configured for the MultiPurpose Crew Vehicle and associated equipment, or may be outfitted with a payload fairing that will accommodate flagship science instruments and a variety of high-priority experiments. Both options support a national capability that will pay dividends for future generations. Building on legacy systems, facilities, and expertise, the SLS will have an initial lift capability of 70 metric tons (mT) and will be evolvable to 130 mT. While commercial launch vehicle providers service the International Space Station market, this capability will surpass all vehicles, past and present, providing the means to do entirely new missions, such as human exploration of asteroids and Mars. With its superior lift capability, the SLS can expand the interplanetary highway to many possible destinations, conducting revolutionary missions that will change the way we view ourselves, our planet and its place in the cosmos. To perform missions such as these, the SLS will be the largest launch vehicle ever built. It is being designed for safety and affordability - to sustain our journey into the space age. Current plans include launching the first flight, without crew, later this decade, with crewed flights beginning early next decade. Development work now in progress is based on heritage space systems and working knowledge, allowing for a relatively quick start and for maturing the SLS rocket as future technologies become available. Together, NASA and the U.S. aerospace industry are partnering to develop this one-of-a-kind asset. Many of NASA's space centers across the country will provide their unique expertise to the Space Launch System endeavor. Unique infrastructure to be used includes the Michoud Assembly Facility for tank manufacturing, Stennis Space Center for engine testing, and Kennedy Space Center for processing and launch. As this panel will discuss, the SLS team is dedicated to doing things differently-from applying lean oversight/insight models to smartly using legacy hardware and existing facilities. Building on the foundation laid by over 50 years of human and scientific space flight--and on the lessons learned from the Apollo, Space Shuttle, and Constellation Programs-the SLS team has delivered both technical trade studies and business case analyses to ensure that the SLS architecture will be safe, affordable, reliable, and sustainable.

Singer, Joan A.↗

Human Factors and Habitability Challenges for Mars Missions

As NASA is planning to send humans deeper into space than ever before, adequate crew health and performance will be critical for mission success. Within the NASA Human Research Program (HRP), the Space Human Factors and Habitability (SHFH) team is responsible for characterizing the risks associated with human capabilities and limitations with respect to long-duration spaceflight, and for providing mitigations (e.g., guidelines, technologies, and tools) to promote safe, reliable and productive missions. SHFH research includes three domains: Advanced Environmental Health (AEH), Advanced Food Technology (AFT), and Space Human Factors Engineering (SHFE). The AEH portfolio focuses on understanding the risk of microbial contamination of the spacecraft and on the development of standards for exposure to potential toxins such as chemicals, bacteria, fungus, and lunar/Martian dust. The two risks that the environmental health project focuses on are adverse health effects due to changes in host-microbe interactions, and risks associated with exposure to dust in planetary surface habitats. This portfolio also proposes countermeasures to these risks by making recommendations that relate to requirements for environmental quality, foods, and crew health on spacecraft and space missions. The AFT portfolio focuses on reducing the mass, volume, and waste of the entire integrated food system to be used in exploration missions, and investigating processing methods to extend the shelf life of food items up to five years, while assuring that exploration crews will have nutritious and palatable foods. The portfolio also delivers improvements in both the food itself and the technologies for storing and preparing it. SHFE sponsors research to establish human factors and habitability standards and guidelines in five risk areas, and provides improved design concepts for advanced crew interfaces and habitability systems. These risk areas include: Incompatible vehicle/habitat design, inadequate human-computer interaction, inadequate critical task design, inadequate human-automation/robotic interaction, and performance errors due to training deficiencies. To address the identified research gaps within each risk, SHFH's research plan includes studies in the laboratory, in analogs, and on International Space Station (ISS). In addition to establishing and maintaining the risk-based research portfolio, SHFH is also implementing a qualitative approach to determine how we at NASA evaluate human performance. Via interviews with experts, such as trainers, flight controllers, and flight surgeons, we are collecting the metrics by which they assess human performance, evidence of performance issues, and potential or actual consequences. The Human Performance Data Project will determine what human performance data have been collected in the past at NASA, and what data should be collected in the future in order to complete our knowledgebase and reduce risks related to human factors and habitability.

Whitmore, Mihriban↗

Global Air Quality and Climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.

ozone↗

Validation of Remotely Sensed and Modeled Soil Moisture at Forested and Unforested Sites

Soil moisture is an important driver for forest ecosystems, influencing fire occurrence and extent, insect and pathogen impacts, and tree growth, which creates a need for regular, globally extensive soil moisture information that only satellite-based sensors or models can achieve. However, the reliability of soil moisture measurements in forests is not well understood due to a lack of suitable validation sites (especially relative to unforested ecosystems) and interference caused by high vegetation water content on remotely sensed measurements; although recent studies have started to address this gap [1], [2], [3], [4]. Here we validate the performance of multiyear remotely sensed (SMAP/Sentinel), remotely sensed data assimilation modelled (SMAP-L4), and modelled (NLDAS) surface and root zone (0-1 m) soil moisture datasets with data from in-situ sensors at 39 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites throughout the contiguous US. Due to differences in spatial resolution, NEON soil moisture (~0.2 km measurement zone) correlations were expected to be stronger with the SMAP/Sentinel product (3 km resolution) than with coarser resolution SMAP-L4 (9 km resolution) or NLDAS products (13 km resolution). However, given the sensitivity of satellite measurements to vegetation water content we expected a deterioration in the correlations based on remotely sensed measurements (SMAP/Sentinel and SMAP-L4) as aboveground biomass increased, whereas the model-based data (NLDAS) was expected to be largely insensitive to vegetation type. We recognize that the SMAP/Sentinel product was developed for unforested regions, therefore our application is outside its primary use case. Soil moisture is measured at up to 8 depths in five soil plots spaced up to 40 m apart at each NEON terrestrial site. Correlation parameters were calculated for the three remotely sensed and modelled data products relative to in-situ measurement following Entekhabi et al. [5]. The datasets comprised 94 (SMAP-L4), 28 (SMAP/Sentinel), and 106 (NLDAS) sites-years for surface soils and 13 (SMAP-L4) and 14 (NLDAS) site-years for the root zone. At unforested sites, the performance of the three remotely sensed and modelled data products was similar for surface soils (Table 1). For example, unbiased RMSD (ubRMSD), which SMAP uses as its primary performance metric [6], ranged from 0.05 to 0.06 m3 m-3 (Table 1), indicating the ability of all three products to track changes in soil moisture over time. The performance of the three products deteriorated at forested sites, however, while the difference in performance was modest for SMAP-L4 and NLDAS, the deterioration in SMAP/Sentinel performance was substantial. For instance, SMAP/Sentinel ubRMSD increased from 0.06 to 0.11 m3 m-3 and absolute mean difference (Abs MD; which includes measurement bias and spatial representativeness errors) increased from 0.06 to 0.16 m3 m-3, indicating both a reduction in ability to track temporal changes and absolute amounts of soil moisture in forest ecosystems. SMAP-L4 and NLDAS had lower unbiased RMSD for root zone (0-1 m) than surface soils at both forested and unforested sites (Tables 1 and 2; SMAP/Sentinel does not produce a root zone measurement). However, in most cases the correlation coefficient (r) was lower for the root zone than surface soils, suggesting the lower unbiased RMSD may be attributed to greater temporal stability of soil moisture in the root zone rather than improved data product performance. Mean difference and absolute mean difference, which encompass measurement bias and spatial representativeness errors, were greater for root zone than surface soils at unforested sites for both data products, but the opposite was generally true at forested sites. As with surface soils, there was relatively little change in the performance of SMAP-L4 and NLDAS between the unforested and forested sites. In summary, all three data products were able to adequately represent soil moisture at unforested sites, at least when aggregating across sites. However, while the performance of all three products deteriorated at forested sites, SMAP-L4 and NLDAS maintained sufficient performance to remain suitable for some use cases (ubRMSD <0.06 m3 m-3 and RMSD <0.13 m3 m-3). In contrast, the relatively poorer performance of the SMAP/Sentinel product at forested sites seems insufficient for most use cases (ubRMSD >0.1 m3 m-3 and RMSD >0.2 m3 m-3). We attribute the large reduction in the performance of the SMAP/Sentinel product in forests to its use of C-band wavelengths, which are particularly sensitive to vegetation interference, and apparently outweighed any gains provided by its higher spatial resolution. A combined SMAP/NISAR soil moisture product may provide improved performance relative to SMAP/Sentinel due to NISAR’s use of L-band wavelengths, which are less sensitive to vegetation (NISAR is scheduled for launch in early 2024).

Edward Ayres↗

Uncertainty Models for the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method of Uncertainty Quantification; Analysis

There is some level of uncertainty in every finite element model (FEM), which flows to a level of uncertainty in predicted results. The purpose of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is to provide statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. This is distinct from model updating, which attempts to modify models to improve their accuracy. UQ does not improve the accuracy of models, but accepts that the models are inherently inaccurate and attempts to quantify the impact of that inaccuracy on predicted results. Previously, an alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method, was applied to Space Launch System (SLS) Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components to predict system-level statistics for launch vehicle attitude control transfer functions and core stage section loads due to buffet. The HPV method combines a parametric variation of the HCB fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method that randomly varies the HCB mass and stiffness matrices as Wishart random matrix distributions using random matrix theory (RMT). Alternatively, the most common method for modeling uncertainty in the structural dynamics community is a parametric approach, which varies physical parameters in the model. However, there are several disadvantages associated with the parametric method. Determining a reduced set of parameters that have a significant impact on the system response can be time consuming, and the selected parameter probability distributions are rarely reliably known. Therefore, in practice, the parameters are surrogates for the actual errors, and the link to parameter uncertainty is unknown. Another major drawback is that the uncertainty that can be represented is limited to the form of the nominal FEM. It is the experience of the authors that based on numerous aerospace programs, almost all FEM errors are in form rather than parameter values. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of the authors that it is almost never possible to ‘tune’ a FEM to match modal test results by only modifying model parameters. Model-form uncertainty cannot be directly represented by FEM input parameters nor included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using RMT, where a probability distribution is developed for the matrix ensemble of interest. The major advantage of the NPV method is that it covers errors in model form. The HPV method anchors uncertainty at the HCB component level to component modal test results by matching the HCB and test modes based on mode descriptions or other methods, and then applying differing levels of frequency variation. The specific variations depend on the confidence to which a component FEM has been validated through modal testing. The NPV method is layered on the frequency variation to match modal test self-orthogonality and cross-orthogonality (XO) results. Once the component uncertainty models are identified, they are assembled, and the uncertainty is propagated to the system level using a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis approach that generates statistics for system-level predictions This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The second example is an application to a component that is design specific to the SLS. Based on this work and other assessments, the HPV method provides another tool to the toolset used for complex system UQ analysis. From experience gathered to date using the HPV method, additional design specific applications must be investigated to provide further confidence in the validity of the HPV method of UQ analysis.

Uncertainty quantification↗

Water Across Synthetic Aperture Radar Data (WASARD): SAR Water Body Classification for the Open Data Cube

The detection of inland water bodies from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data provides a great advantage over water detection with optical data, since SAR imaging is not impeded by cloud cover. Traditional methods of detecting water from SAR data involves using thresholding methods that can be labor intensive and imprecise. This paper describes Water Across Synthetic Aperture Radar Data (WASARD): a method of water detection from SAR data which automates and simplifies the thresholding process using machine learning on training data created from Geoscience Australia’s WOFS algorithm. Of the machine learning models tested, the Linear Support Vector Machine was determined to be optimal, with the option of training using solely the VH polarization or a combination of the VH and VV polarizations. WASARD was able to identify water in the target area with a correlation of 97% with WOFS. Sentinel-1, Open Data Cube, Earth Observations, Machine Learning, Water Detection 1. INTRODUCTION Water classification is an important function of Earth imaging satellites, as accurate remote classification of land and water can assist in land use analysis, flood prediction, climate change research, as well as a variety of agricultural applications [2]. The ability to identify bodies of water remotely via satellite is immensely cheaper than contracting surveys of the areas in question, meaning that an application that can accurately use satellite data towards this function can make valuable information available to nations which would not be able to afford it otherwise. Highly reliable applications for the remote detection of water currently exist for use with optical satellite data such as that provided by LANDSAT. One such application, Geoscience Australia’s Water Observations from Space (WOFS) has already been ported for use with the Open Data Cube [6]. However, water detection using optical data from Landsat is constrained by its relatively long revisit cycle of 16 days [5], and water detection using any optical data is constrained in that it lacks the ability to make accurate classifications through cloud cover [2]. The alternative solution which solves these problems is water detection using SAR data, which images the Earth using cloud-penetrating microwaves. Because of its advantages over optical data, much research has been done into water detection using SAR data. Traditionally, this has been done using the thresholding method, which involves picking a polarization band and labeling all pixels for which this band’s value is below a certain threshold as containing water. The thresholding method works since water tends to return a much lower backscatter value to the satellite than land [1]. However, this method can be flawed since estimating the proper threshold is often imprecise, complicated, and labor intensive for the end user. Thresholding also tends to use data from only one SAR polarization, when a combination of polarizations can provide insight into whether water is present. [2] In order to alleviate these problems, this paper presents an application for the Open Data Cube to detect water from SAR data using support vector machine (SVM) classification. 2. PLATFORM WASARD is an application for the Open Data Cube, a mechanism which provides a simple yet efficient means of ingesting, storing, and retrieving remote sensing data. Data can be ingested and made analysis ready according to whatever specifications the researcher chooses, and easily resampled to artificially alter a scene’s resolution. Currently WASARD supports water detection on scenes from ESA’s Sentinel-1 and JAXA’s ALOS. When testing WASARD, Sentinel-1 was most commonly used due to its relatively high spatial resolution and its rapid 6 day revisit cycle [5]. With minor alterations to the application's code, however, it could support data from other satellites. 3. METHODOLOGY Using supervised classification, WASARD compares SAR data to a dataset pre-classified by WOFS in order to train an SVM classifier. This classifier is then used to detect water in other SAR scenes outside the training set. Accuracy was measured according to the following metrics:  Precision: a measure of what percentage of the points WASARD labels as water are truly water  Recall: a measure of what percentage of the total water cover WASARD was able to identify.  F1 Score: a harmonic average of the precision and recall scores Both precision and recall are calculated at the end of the training phase, when the trained classifier is compared to a testing dataset. Because the WOFS algorithm’s classifications are used as the truth values when training a WASARD classifier, when precision and recall are mentioned in this paper, they are always with respect to the values produced by WOFS on a similar scene of Landsat data, which themselves have a classification accuracy of 97% [6]. Visual representations of water identified by WASARD in this paper were produced using the function wasard_plot(), which is included in WASARD. 3.1 Algorithm Selection The machine learning model used by WASARD is the Linear Support Vector Machine (SVM). This model uses a supervised learning algorithm to develop a classifier, meaning it creates a vector which can be multiplied by the vector formed by the relevant data bands to determine whether a pixel in a SAR scene contains water. This classifier is trained by comparing data points from selected bands in a SAR scene to their respective labels, which in this case are “water” or “not water” as given by the WOFS algorithm. The SVM was selected over the Random Forest model, which outperformed the SVM in training speed, but had a greater classification time and lower accuracy, and the Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network, which had a slightly higher average accuracy than the SVM, but much greater training and classification times. Figure 1: Visual representation of the SVM Classifier. Each white point represents a pixel in a SAR scene. In Figure 1, the diagonal line separating pixels determined to be water from those determined not to be water represents the actual classification vector produced by the SVM. It is worth noting that once the model has been trained, classification of pixels is done in a similar manner as in the thresholding method. This is especially true if only one band was used to train the model. 3.1 Feature Selection Sentinel-1 collects data from two bands: the Vertical/Vertical polarization (VV) and the Vertical/Horizontal polarization (VH). When 100 SVM classifiers were created for each polarization individually, and for the combination of the two, the following results were achieved: Figure 2: Accuracy of classifiers trained using different polarization bands. Precision and Recall were measured with respect to the values produced by WOFS. Figure 2 demonstrates that using both the VV and VH bands trades slightly lower recall for significantly greater precision when compared with the VH band alone, and that using the VV band alone is inferior in both metrics. WASARD therefore defaults to using both the VV and VH bands, and includes the option to use solely the VH band. The VV polarization’s lower precision compared to the VH polarization is in contrast to results from previous research and may merit further analysis [4]. 3.2 Training a Classifier The steps in training a classifier with WASARD are 1. Selecting two scenes (one SAR, one optical) with the same spatial extents, and acquired close to each other in time, with a preference that the scenes are taken on the same day. 2. Using the WOFS algorithm to produce an array of the detected water in the scene of optical data, to be used as the labels during supervised learning 3. Data points from the selected bands from the SAR acquisition are bundled together into an array with the corresponding labels gathered from WOFS. A random sample with an equal number of points labeled “Water” and “Not Water” is selected to be partitioned into a training and a testing dataset 4. Using Scikit-Learn’s LinearSVC object, the training dataset is used to produce a classifier, which is then tested against the testing dataset to determine its precision and recall The result is a wasard_classifier object, which has the following attributes: 1. f1, recall, and precision: 3 metrics used to determine the classifier’s accuracy 2. Coefficient: Vector which the SVM uses to make its predictions. The classifier detects water when the dot product of the coefficient and the vector formed by the SAR bands is positive 3. Save(): allows a user to save a classifier to the disk in order to use it without retraining 4. wasard_classify(): Classifies an entire xarray of SAR data using the SVM classifier All of the above steps are performed automatically when the user creates a wasard_classifier object. 3.3 Classifying a Dataset Once the classifier has been created, it can be used to detect water in an xarray of SAR data using wasard_classify(). By taking the dot product of the classifier’s coefficients and the vector formed by the selected bands of SAR data, an array of predictions is constructed. A classifier can effectively be used on the same spatial extents as the ones where it was trained, or on any area with a similar landscape. While

Kreiser, Zachary↗

Why Atens Enjoy Enhanced Accessibility For Human Space Flight

In the context of human space flight (HSF), the concept of near-Earth object (NEO) accessibility is highly subjective. Whether or not a particular NEO is accessible critically depends on mass, performance, and reliability of interplanetary HSF systems yet to be designed. Such systems would certainly include propulsion and crew life support with adequate shielding from both solar flares and galactic cosmic radiation. Equally critical architecture options are relevant to NEO accessibility. These options are also far from being determined and include the number of launches supporting an HSF mission, together with whether or not consumables are to be pre-emplaced at the destination. Until the unknowns of HSF to NEOs come into clearer focus, the notion of relative accessibility is of great utility. Imagine a group of NEOs, each with nearly equal HSF merit determined from their individual characteristics relating to crew safety, scientific return, resource utilization, and planetary defense. The more accessible members of this group are more likely to be explored first. A highly accessible NEO could conceivably be deferred in favor of a less accessible HSF destination because the latter is more accessible during a programmatically desirable launch compliant mission trajectory solutions detected in association with a specific NEO. The known NEO population is then surveyed to illustrate in which regions of heliocentric semi-major axis, eccentricity, and inclination (a, e, i) space NEOs with large n values are mapped. The (a, e, i) mapping is also formatted such that membership in each of four NEO orbit classifications, as defined below, is evident. Amors have orbits everywhere superior to (outside of) Earth's. An Amor is therefore defined to have perihelion between 1.017 astronomical units (AU) and the maximum NEO value of 1.3 AU. As of 0 hrs Universal Time on 1 January 2011 (UT epoch 2011.0), Amors numbered 2855 in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Small-Body Database (SBDB), comprising 37.7% of known NEOs. Apollos have orbits crossing Earth's with periods greater than Earth's. An Apollo is therefore defined to have perihelion less than 1.017 AU and a greater than 1.0 AU. As of 2011.0 UT, Apollos numbered 4080 in the SBDB, comprising 53.9% of known NEOs. Atens have orbits crossing Earth's with periods less than Earth's. An Aten is therefore defined to have aphelion greater than 0.983 AU and a less than 1.0 AU. As of 2011.0 UT, Atens numbered 618 in the SBDB, comprising 8.2% of known NEOs. Atiras have orbits everywhere inferior to (inside of) Earth's. An Atira is therefore defined to have aphelion less than 0.983 AU. As of 2011.0 UT, Atiras numbered 11 in the SBDB, comprising 0.1% of known NEOs. It is no surprise that the largest n values are chiefly associated with Apollos and Atens. Because these orbits cross Earth's, distance to be covered in a given round trip mission time delta-t can be far less than is possible for Amors or Atiras . This delta-t or the sum of mission propulsive impulse magnitudes delta-v can more frequently be minimized to enhance NHATS compliance for Apollos and Atens than is generally the case for Amors and Atiras. A less intuitive trend in NHATS results is that Atens nearly outnumber the more numerous Apollos among the most compliant NEOs as measured by n. This trend is completely out of proportion to the degree Atens are represented among the known NEO population. A theory based on geocentric NEO dynamics is presented by this paper to explain why Atens enjoy inherently greater accessibility than do Apollos. Another trend evident from mapping into (a, e, i) space is the dearth of known NEOs at low e when a < 1 AU. Underrepresentation of Atens and Atiras in the NEO catalog is at least in part attributable to observing exclusively from a perspective near Earth. Generally inferior Aten and Atira orbits are rarely, if ever, in Earth's night sky. Until a comprehensive NEO survey is conducted from an appropriateegion remote from Earth, the theory developed in this paper indicates a substantial fraction of the most accessible NEOs will remain unknown. season. Such a season is really yet another undetermined HSF architecture option. A launch season's duration will likely be measured in weeks, and it will be utilized at an indeterminate point almost certainly more than a decade in the future when HSF programmatic maturity is sufficient. Furthermore, current knowledge of the NEO population relevant to HSF is far from complete. In the 100-m-diameter class of greatest interest, only a few percent of the estimated NEO population is known [2, Figure 2.4]. Therefore, any known, lost, or fictitious NEO in a highly accessible orbit is a potential HSF destination of merit. Even if lost, fictitious, small, or hazardous, such a potential target (or another in a similar orbit) may ultimately prove to be an early HSF destination when the pertinent NEO population is more thoroughly catalogued and NEO orbits are more thoroughly maintained at high accuracy. This paper first reviews methodology and pertinent results from NASA-sponsored research performed in late 2010 and dubbed NEO HSF Accessible Targets Study (NHATS, pronounced as "gnats"). A useful accessibility metric developed during this study is n, the tally of NHATS-

Barbee, Brent↗