Machine learning enabled reduced-order scenario generation for stochastic analysis of solar power forecasts
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Energy & Fuels↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “reduced order methods”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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NA-22 Write for Consortium Efforts
We are asked to look into the improvements for the measurement of Pu of a variety of material types (MT): MT41 (Pu-242, 20 – 60% enriched), MT42 (Pu-242 > 60% enrichment), and MT-82 (Np-237). Many of these are legacy items that were packaged years ago (Fig 1&2), and when the items are re-packaged for long-term storage, they must be re-measured using either NDA (nondestructive analysis methods or radiochemical methods. It is of interest to improve the NDA and radiochemistry to reduce the un-certainty in the measurements, as in the case of larger items (250 g to 2 kg items) the uncertainty in measurements makes it difficult to certify the mass of the material down to the 0.5 g accountability requirement per DOE orders by only doing NDA measurement. It would be of interest to look into methods to improve the detection of these materials, which would not only benefit the weapon manufacturing community, but also has the ability to significantly improve the non-proliferation community.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Rapid In Situ Ligand‐Exchange Process Used to Prepare 3D PbSe Nanocrystal Superlattice Infrared Photodetectors
Abstract Colloidal semiconductor nanocrystals are important building blocks for low‐cost, solution‐processed electronic devices with tunable functionalities. Considerable progress is made in improving charge transport through nanocrystal films by exchanging long insulating ligands with shorter passivating ligands. To take full advantage of this strategy, it is equally important to fabricate close‐packed structures that reduce the average interparticle spacing. Yet it remains a challenge to retain long‐range, close‐packed order after ligand exchange. Here, a novel one‐step in situ ligand‐exchange method is demonstrated that enables rapid (5 min) ligand exchange of nanocrystal films, which are more than 50 layers thick. Using this simple and efficient method, it is shown that the face‐centered cubic ordering of 500 nm thick PbSe nanocrystal films is retained after ligand exchange from oleic acid to benzoic acid. Moreover, it is demonstrated that PbSe nanocrystal photodetectors with a well‐ordered structure have superior optoelectronic properties compared to disordered films; ordered films have a 16× higher responsivity of ≈0.25 A W −1 at 1 V and a 2× faster response time. As far as it is known, this is the first report to realize a rapid one‐step ligand exchange through a thick superlattice film with retention of long‐range order.
infrared detecton↗
Sparse-grid discontinuous Galerkin methods for the Vlasov–Poisson–Lenard–Bernstein model
Sparse-grid methods have recently gained interest in reducing the computational cost of solving high-dimensional kinetic equations. In this paper, we construct adaptive and hybrid sparse-grid methods for the Vlasov–Poisson–Lenard–Bernstein (VPLB) model. This model has applications to plasma physics and is simulated in two reduced geometries: a 0x3v space homogeneous geometry and a 1x3v slab geometry. Here we use the discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method as a base discretization due to its high-order accuracy and ability to preserve important structural properties of partial differential equations. We utilize a multiwavelet basis expansion to determine the sparse-grid basis and the adaptive mesh criteria. We analyze the proposed sparse-grid methods on a suite of three test problems by computing the savings afforded by sparse-grids in comparison to standard solutions of the DG method. The results are obtained using the adaptive sparse-grid discretization library ASGarD.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Conservative projection-based data-driven model order reduction of a fluid-kinetic spectral solver
Kinetic simulations are computationally intensive due to six-dimensional phase space discretization. Many kinetic spectral solvers use the asymmetrically weighted Hermite expansion due to its conservation and fluid-kinetic coupling properties, i.e., the lower-order Hermite moments capture and describe the macroscopic fluid dynamics, and higher-order Hermite moments describe the microscopic kinetic dynamics. We leverage this structure by developing a parametric data-driven reduced-order model based on the proper orthogonal decomposition, which projects the higher-order kinetic moments while retaining the fluid moments intact. We demonstrate analytically and numerically that the method ensures local and global mass, momentum, and energy conservation. The numerical results show that the proposed method effectively replicates the high-dimensional spectral simulations at a fraction of the computational cost and memory, as validated on the weak Landau damping and two-stream instability benchmark problems.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Direct statistical simulation of the Lorenz96 system in model reduction approaches
Direct statistical simulation (DSS) of nonlinear dynamical systems bypasses the traditional route of accumulating statistics by lengthy direct numerical simulations by solving the equations that govern the statistics themselves. DSS suffers, however, from the curse of dimensionality as the statistics (such as correlations) generally have higher dimensions than the underlying dynamical variables. Here we investigate two approaches to reduce the dimensionality of DSS, illustrating each method with numerical experiments with the Lorenz96 dynamical system. The forms of DSS chosen here involve approximate closures at second and third order in the equal-time cumulants. We demonstrate significant reduction in computational effort that can be achieved without sacrificing the accuracy of DSS. The methods developed here can be applied to turbulent fluid and magnetohydrodynamical systems. Published by the American Physical Society 2025
Li, Kuan↗
Numerical integrators for Lagrangian oceanography
Abstract. A common task in Lagrangian oceanography is to calculate a large number of drifter trajectories from a velocity field precalculated with an ocean model. Mathematically, this is simply numerical integration of an ordinary differential equation (ODE), for which a wide range of different methods exist. However, the discrete nature of the modelled ocean currents requires interpolation of the velocity field in both space and time, and the choice of interpolation scheme has implications for the accuracy and efficiency of the different numerical ODE methods. We investigate trajectory calculation in modelled ocean currents with 800 m, 4 km, and 20 km horizontal resolution, in combination with linear, cubic and quintic spline interpolation. We use fixed-step Runge–Kutta integrators of orders 1–4, as well as three variable-step Runge–Kutta methods (Bogacki–Shampine 3(2), Dormand–Prince 5(4) and 8(7)). Additionally, we design and test modified special-purpose variants of the three variable-step integrators, which are better able to handle discontinuous derivatives in an interpolated velocity field. Our results show that the optimal choice of ODE integrator depends on the resolution of the ocean model, the degree of interpolation, and the desired accuracy. For cubic interpolation, the commonly used Dormand–Prince 5(4) is rarely the most efficient choice. We find that in many cases, our special-purpose integrators can improve accuracy by many orders of magnitude over their standard counterparts, with no increase in computational effort. Equivalently, the special-purpose integrators can provide the same accuracy as standard methods at a reduced computational cost. The best results are seen for coarser resolutions (4 and 20 km), thus the special-purpose integrators are particularly advantageous for research using regional to global ocean models to compute large numbers of trajectories. Our results are also applicable to trajectory computations on data from atmospheric models.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Plant-specific Model and Data Analysis using Dynamic Security Modeling and Simulation
The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large on-site physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an update on the progress in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available force-on-force simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework or MASS-DEF. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report does not contain any plant's sensitive information and/or Safeguards Information. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Synergy of semiempirical models and machine learning in computational chemistry
Catalyzed by enormous success in the industrial sector, many research programs have been exploring data-driven, machine learning approaches. Performance can be poor when the model is extrapolated to new regions of chemical space, e.g., new bonding types, new many-body interactions. Another important limitation is the spatial locality assumption in model architecture, and this limitation cannot be overcome with larger or more diverse datasets. The outlined challenges are primarily associated with the lack of electronic structure information in surrogate models such as interatomic potentials. Given the fast development of machine learning and computational chemistry methods, we expect some limitations of surrogate models to be addressed in the near future; nevertheless spatial locality assumption will likely remain a limiting factor for their transferability. Here, we suggest focusing on an equally important effort—design of physics-informed models that leverage the domain knowledge and employ machine learning only as a corrective tool. In the context of material science, we will focus on semi-empirical quantum mechanics, using machine learning to predict corrections to the reduced-order Hamiltonian model parameters. The resulting models are broadly applicable, retain the speed of semiempirical chemistry, and frequently achieve accuracy on par with much more expensive ab initio calculations. These early results indicate that future work, in which machine learning and quantum chemistry methods are developed jointly, may provide the best of all worlds for chemistry applications that demand both high accuracy and high numerical efficiency.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Predictive Data-driven Platform for Subsurface Energy Production
Subsurface energy activities such as unconventional resource recovery, enhanced geothermal energy systems, and geologic carbon storage require fast and reliable methods to account for complex, multiphysical processes in heterogeneous fractured and porous media. Although reservoir simulation is considered the industry standard for simulating these subsurface systems with injection and/or extraction operations, reservoir simulation requires spatio-temporal “Big Data” into the simulation model, which is typically a major challenge during model development and computational phase. In this work, we developed and applied various deep neural network-based approaches to (1) process multiscale image segmentation, (2) generate ensemble members of drainage networks, flow channels, and porous media using deep convolutional generative adversarial network, (3) construct multiple hybrid neural networks such as convolutional LSTM and convolutional neural network-LSTM to develop fast and accurate reduced order models for shale gas extraction, and (4) physics-informed neural network and deep Q-learning for flow and energy production. We hypothesized that physicsbased machine learning/deep learning can overcome the shortcomings of traditional machine learning methods where data-driven models have faltered beyond the data and physical conditions used for training and validation. We improved and developed novel approaches to demonstrate that physics-based ML can allow us to incorporate physical constraints (e.g., scientific domain knowledge) into ML framework. Outcomes of this project will be readily applicable for many energy and national security problems that are particularly defined by multiscale features and network systems.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Minimization of thermal deformation in crystal optics for high repetition-rate FEL
Minimizing thermal deformation in X-ray crystal optics is crucial for preserving coherence and wavefront in high-repetition-rate free-electron lasers (FELs). This study presents two approaches to reduce pulse-by-pulse transient thermal deformation in diamond crystals used in cavity-based X-ray FELs (CBXFELs): (1) cryogenic cooling with liquid nitrogen (LN₂), and (2) second-order correction via focusing optics. We revisit the temperature-dependent thermal-mechanical properties of diamond and silicon, implement a finite-element analysis (FEA) method to accelerate convergence to a quasisteady-state regime. Results show that LN₂-cooled diamond crystals meet the stringent deformation requirement of less than 15 pm RMS for the pulse at mJ scale at 1 MHz repetition frequency, and up to 1.5 mJ for 100 kHz. Second-order correction by using focusing elements within the cavity can reduce the impact of thermal deformation for both liquid nitrogen and water cooling.
free electron laser↗
Energetically consistent model reduction for metriplectic systems
The metriplectic formalism is useful for describing complete dynamical systems which conserve energy and produce entropy. This creates challenges for model reduction, as the elimination of high-frequency information will generally not preserve the metriplectic structure which governs long-term stability of the system. Based on proper orthogonal decomposition, a provably convergent metriplectic reduced-order model is formulated which is guaranteed to maintain the algebraic structure necessary for energy conservation and entropy formation. Further, numerical results on benchmark problems show that the proposed method is remarkably stable, leading to improved accuracy over long time scales at a moderate increase in cost over naive methods.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Priors on red galaxy stochasticity from hybrid effective field theory
ABSTRACT We investigate the stochastic properties of typical red galaxy samples in a controlled numerical environment. We use halo occupation distribution (HOD) modelling to create mock realizations of three separate bright red galaxy samples consistent with data sets used for clustering and lensing analyses in modern galaxy surveys. Second-order Hybrid Effective Field Theory (HEFT) is used as a field-level forward model to describe the full statistical distribution of these tracer samples, and their stochastic power spectra are directly measured and compared to the Poisson shot-noise prediction. While all of the galaxy samples we consider are hosted within haloes with sub-Poisson stochasticity, we observe that the galaxy samples themselves possess stochasticities that range from sub-Poisson to super-Poisson, in agreement with predictions from the halo model. As an application of our methodology, we place priors on the expected degree of non-Poisson stochasticity in cosmological analyses using such samples. We expect these priors will be useful in reducing the complexity of the full parameter space for future analyses using second-order Lagrangian bias models. More generally, the techniques outlined here present the first application of HEFT methods to characterize models of the galaxy–halo connection at the field level, revealing new connections between once-disparate modelling frameworks.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Overview of the SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study Using the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence
We present initial findings from the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study to compare spectral stress-drop estimates for earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence. This study uses a unified dataset to independently estimate earthquake source parameters through various methods. Stress drop, which denotes the change in average shear stress along a fault during earthquake rupture, is a critical parameter in earthquake science, impacting ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics. Spectral stress drop is commonly derived by fitting the amplitude-spectrum shape, but estimates can vary substantially across studies for individual earthquakes. Sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Statewide (previously, Southern) California Earthquake Center our community study aims to elucidate sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake spectral stress-drop estimates through quantitative comparison of submitted results from independent analyses. The dataset includes nearly 13,000 earthquakes ranging from M 1 to 7 during a two-week period of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, recorded within a 1° radius. Here, in this article, we report on 56 unique submissions received from 20 different groups, detailing spectral corner frequencies (or source durations), moment magnitudes, and estimated spectral stress drops. Methods employed encompass spectral ratio analysis, spectral decomposition and inversion, finite-fault modeling, ground-motion-based approaches, and combined methods. Initial analysis reveals significant scatter across submitted spectral stress drops spanning over six orders of magnitude. However, we can identify between-method trends and offsets within the data to mitigate this variability. Averaging submissions for a prioritized subset of 56 events shows reduced variability of spectral stress drop, indicating overall consistency in recovered spectral stress-drop values.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
CSRI Summer Proceedings 2021
The Computer Science Research Institute (CSRI) brings university faculty and students to Sandia National Laboratories for focused collaborative research on Department of Energy (DOE) computer and computational science problems. The institute provides an opportunity for university researches to learn about problems in computer and computational science at DOE laboratories, and help transfer results of their research to programs at the labs. Some specific CSRI research interest areas are: scalable solvers, optimization, algebraic preconditioners, graph-based, discrete, and combinatorial algorithms, uncertainty estimation, validation and verification methods, mesh generation, dynamic load-balancing, virus and other malicious-code defense, visualization, scalable cluster computers, beyond Moore’s Law computing, exascale computing tools and application design, reduced order and multiscale modeling, parallel input/output, and theoretical computer science. The CSRI Summer Program is organized by CSRI and includes a weekly seminar series and the publication of a summer proceedings.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
CSRI Summer Proceedings 2021
The Computer Science Research Institute (CSRI) brings university faculty and students to Sandia National Laboratories for focused collaborative research on Department of Energy (DOE) computer and computational science problems. The institute provides an opportunity for university researches to learn about problems in computer and computational science at DOE laboratories, and help transfer results of their research to programs at the labs. Some specific CSRI research interest areas are: scalable solvers, optimization, algebraic preconditioners, graph-based, discrete, and combinatorial algorithms, uncertainty estimation, validation and verification methods, mesh generation, dynamic load-balancing, virus and other malicious-code defense, visualization, scalable cluster computers, beyond Moore’s Law computing, exascale computing tools and application design, reduced order and multiscale modeling, parallel input/output, and theoretical computer science. The CSRI Summer Program is organized by CSRI and includes a weekly seminar series and the publication of a summer proceedings.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Taylor wave solution for a general equation of state
This document describes a solution procedure for calculating the Taylor wave behind an unsupported Chapman–Jouguet (CJ) detonation in planar, cylindrical, and spherical geometries given a general equation of state. The resulting semi-analytic solution can be utilized to examine new equation of state models for detonation products and during the verification of hydrodynamic codes. The governing partial differential equations are reduced to ordinary differential equations in both characteristic and self-similar forms. The first-order systems corresponding to each geometry are amenable to solution numerically using commonly available methods. A difficulty arises at the CJ point in radial coordinates where the similarity equations become singular. Two separate strategies are proposed to integrate the first-order system. The first one uses an asymptotic approximation near the CJ point that can be used to perturb the boundary conditions. The second one applies a change of variables which removes the singularity at the expense of an additional equation to be integrated. A test problem is provided for the Davis products equation of state to illustrate the qualitative features of the Taylor wave in each geometric configuration and compared with a Lagrangian hydrodynamics research code. A Python code listing gives an implementation using the SciPy library to assists users in generating the results.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
High Throughput Laser Processing for Enhanced Battery Performance and Manufacturing
For widespread adoption of electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) need to achieve energy densities of >275 Wh/kg, cell costs less than $100/kWh, and charge to more than 80% capacity within 15 minutes. Recently, it has been shown that introducing a secondary pore network in thick battery electrodes enables higher extracted capacity without a severe reduction in charge/discharge rate performance. Secondary pore networks consisting of ordered arrays of microstructures reduce tortuosity of Li+-ion transport deep into the thick electrodes, diminishing detrimental concentration gradients within the cell. Ultrafast (femtosecond)-pulsed laser ablation is a promising method to introduce such micro pores or channels in thick battery electrodes as it allows for precise control of pattern geometries, results in minimal damage to the electrode, and can be introduced into existing roll-to-roll electrode manufacturing lines. We have explored laser patterning to create secondary pore networks in a variety of battery electrode materials for both anode and cathode applications and characterized the laser-material interaction parameters. In addition, advanced materials characterization techniques (SEM-EDS, XRD) were used to explore whether ultrafast laser ablation affects the remaining electrode materials' morphology and structure. Furthermore, we have translated lab-scale laser ablation to high-throughput roll-to-roll processing at industrially relevant scales. Finally, we worked with Argonne National Laboratory, developers of the battery cost-analysis package BatPac, to estimate the additional manufacturing costs (CapEx and OpEx) for incorporation of laser-ablation processing to current battery electrode manufacturing. We estimate that ultrafast laser processing will add only -$1kWh, which for considerable improvements in cell performance, creates a compelling case for industry adoption.
battery↗