Application of Recurrent Neural Network to Modeling Earth's Global Electron Density
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Sheng Huang↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “recurrence”
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Recurrent seascape units identify key ecological processes along the western Antarctic Peninsula
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Jeff S. Bowman↗
Enhancing the Operational Resilience of Advanced Reactors with Digital Twins by Recurrent Neural Networks
Because of a lack of operation data during abnormal and accident scenarios, along with the existence of uncertainty in the evaluation model for transient and accident analysis, the established abnormal and emergency operating procedures can be biased in characterizing the reactor states and ensuring operational resilience. To improve state awareness and ensure operational flexibility for minimizing effects on the system due to anomaly, digital twin (DT) technology is suggested to support operator's decision-making by effectively extracting and using knowledge of the current and future plant states from the knowledge base. To demonstrate DT's capability for recovering the complete states of reactors and for predicting the future reactor behaviors, this paper develops and assesses both the diagnosis and prognosis DTs in a nearly autonomous management and control system for an Experimental Breeder Reactor-II simulator during different loss-of-flow scenarios.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Data-Driven Compact Modeling of Bipolar Junction Transistors with Recurrent Neural Networks.
Abstract not provided.
Source record↗
Identification and localization of rotational spectra using recurrent neural networks
A method of identifying molecular parameters in a complex mixture may include receiving a set of combined transition frequencies and analyzing the set of combined transition frequencies using a first trained artificial neural network to generate a plurality of separated transition frequency sets. Each of the plurality of separated frequency sets may be analyzed using a second trained artificial neural network to generate a respective set of estimated spectral parameters. The method may include identifying a set of molecular parameters corresponding to the set of separated transition frequencies.
Prozuments, Kirills↗
Magnetic fields and flows between 1 AU and 0.3 AU during the primary mission of HELIOS 1
The recurrent flow and field patterns observed by HELIOS 1, and the relation between these patterns and coronal holes are discussed. Four types of recurrent patterns were observed: a large recurrent stream, a recurrent slow (quiet) flow, a rapidly evolving flow, and a recurrent compound stream. There recurrent streams were not stationary, for although the sources recurred at approximately the same longitudes on successive rotations, the shapes and latitudinal patterns changed from one rotation to the next. A type of magnetic field and plasma structure characterized by a low ion temperature and a high magnetic field intensity is described as well as the structures of stream boundaries between the sun at approximately 0.3 AU.
Burlaga, L. F.↗
Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair
We describe using Ap and F(10.7) as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F(10.7) to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the "true" precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is approximately equal to 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F(10.7) shows that F(10.7) is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F(10.7). During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65 +/- 20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5+/-0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average.
predictions↗
The Epidermal Microbiome Within an Aggregation of Leopard Sharks ( Triakis semifasciata ) Has Taxonomic Flexibility with Gene Functional Stability Across Three Time-points
The epidermis of Chondrichthyan fishes consists of dermal denticles with production of minimal but protein-rich mucus that collectively, influence the attachment and biofilm development of microbes, facilitating a unique epidermal microbiome. Here, we use metagenomics to provide the taxonomic and functional characterization of the epidermal microbiome of the Triakis semifasciata (leopard shark) at three time-points collected across 4 years to identify links between microbial groups and host metabolism. Our aims include (1) describing the variation of microbiome taxa over time and identifying recurrent microbiome members (present across all time-points); (2) investigating the relationship between the recurrent and flexible taxa (those which are not found consistently across time-points); (3) describing the functional compositions of the microbiome which may suggest links with the host metabolism; and (4) identifying whether metabolic processes are shared across microbial genera or are unique to specific taxa. Microbial members of the microbiome showed high similarity between all individuals (Bray–Curtis similarity index = 82.7, where 0 = no overlap, 100 = total overlap) with the relative abundance of those members varying across sampling time-points, suggesting flexibility of taxa in the microbiome. One hundred and eighty-eight genera were identified as recurrent, including Pseudomonas, Erythrobacter, Alcanivorax, Marinobacter, and Sphingopxis being consistently abundant across time-points, while Limnobacter and Xyella exhibited switching patterns with high relative abundance in 2013, Sphingobium and Sphingomona in 2015, and Altermonas, Leeuwenhoekiella, Gramella, and Maribacter in 2017. Of the 188 genera identified as recurrent, the top 19 relatively abundant genera formed three recurrent groups. The microbiome also displayed high functional similarity between individuals (Bray–Curtis similarity index = 97.6) with gene function composition remaining consistent across all time-points. These results show that while the presence of microbial genera exhibits consistency across time-points, their abundances do fluctuate. Microbial functions however remain stable across time-points; thus, we suggest the leopard shark microbiomes exhibit functional redundancy. We show coexistence of microbes hosted in elasmobranch microbiomes that encode genes involved in utilizing nitrogen, but not fixing nitrogen, degrading urea, and resistant to heavy metal.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Predicting lake surface water phosphorus dynamics using process-guided machine learning
Phosphorus (P) loading to lakes is degrading the quality and usability of water globally. Accurate predictions of lake P dynamics are needed to understand whole-ecosystem P budgets, as well as the consequences of changing lake P concentrations for water quality. However, complex biophysical processes within lakes, along with limited observational data, challenge our capacity to reproduce short-term lake dynamics needed for water quality predictions, as well as long-term dynamics needed to understand broad scale controls over lake P. Here we use an emerging paradigm in modeling, process-guided machine learning (PGML), to produce a phosphorus budget for Lake Mendota (Wisconsin, USA) and to accurately predict epilimnetic phosphorus over a time range of days to decades. In our implementation of PGML, which we term a Process-Guided Recurrent Neural Network (PGRNN), we combine a process-based model for lake P with a recurrent neural network, and then constrain the predictions with ecological principles. We test independently the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN to evaluate the overall approach. The process-based model accounted for most of the observed pattern in lake P; however it missed the long-term trend in lake P and had the worst performance in predicting winter and summer P in surface waters. The root mean square error (RMSE) for the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN was 33.0 μg P L -1 , 22.7 μg P L -1 , and 20.7 μg P L -1 , respectively. All models performed better during summer, with RMSE values for the three models (same order) equal to 14.3 μg P L -1 , 10.9 μg P L -1 , and 10.7 μg P L -1 . Although the PGRNN had only marginally better RMSE during summer, it had lower bias and reproduced long-term decreases in lake P missed by the other two models. For all seasons and all years, the recurrent neural network had better predictions than process alone, with root mean square error (RMSE) of 23.8 μg P L -1 and 28.0 μg P L -1 , respectively. The output of PGRNN indicated that new processes related to water temperature, thermal stratification, and long term changes in external loads are needed to improve the process model. By using ecological knowledge, as well as the information content of complex data, PGML shows promise as a technique for accurate prediction in messy, real-world ecological dynamics, while providing valuable information that can improve our understanding of process.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Complexity-calibrated benchmarks for machine learning reveal when prediction algorithms succeed and mislead
Abstract Recurrent neural networks are used to forecast time series in finance, climate, language, and from many other domains. Reservoir computers are a particularly easily trainable form of recurrent neural network. Recently, a “next-generation” reservoir computer was introduced in which the memory trace involves only a finite number of previous symbols. We explore the inherent limitations of finite-past memory traces in this intriguing proposal. A lower bound from Fano’s inequality shows that, on highly non-Markovian processes generated by large probabilistic state machines, next-generation reservoir computers with reasonably long memory traces have an error probability that is at least $$\sim 60\%$$ ∼ 60 % higher than the minimal attainable error probability in predicting the next observation. More generally, it appears that popular recurrent neural networks fall far short of optimally predicting such complex processes. These results highlight the need for a new generation of optimized recurrent neural network architectures. Alongside this finding, we present concentration-of-measure results for randomly-generated but complex processes. One conclusion is that large probabilistic state machines—specifically, large $$\epsilon$$ ϵ -machines—are key to generating challenging and structurally-unbiased stimuli for ground-truthing recurrent neural network architectures.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Development and validation of a next-generation sequencing-based multigene assay to predict the prognosis of estrogen receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer
Purpose: Multigene assays provide useful prognostic information regarding hormone receptor (HR)-positive breast cancer. Next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based platforms have numerous advantages including reproducibility and adaptability in local laboratories. Here we aimed to develop and validate an NGS-based multigene assay to predict the distant recurrence risk. Experimental Design: In total, 179 genes including 30 reference genes highly correlated with the 21-gene recurrence score (RS) algorithm were selected from public databases. Targeted RNA-sequencing was performed using 250 and 93 archived breast cancer samples with a known RS in the training and verification sets, respectively, to develop the algorithm and NGS–Prognostic Score (NGS-PS). The assay was validated in 413 independent samples with long-term follow-up data on distant metastasis. Results: In the verification set, the NGS-PS and 21-gene RS displayed 91.4% concurrence (85/93 samples). In the validation cohort of 413 samples, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve plotted using NGS-PS values classified for distant recurrence was 0.76. The best NGS-PS cut-off value predicting distant metastasis was 20. Furthermore, 269 and 144 patients were classified as low- and high-risk patients in accordance with the cut-off. Five- and 10-year estimates of distant metastasis–free survival (DMFS) for low- versus high-risk groups were 97.0% versus 77.8% and 93.2% versus 64.4%, respectively. The age-related HR for distant recurrence without chemotherapy was 9.73 (95% CI, 3.59–26.40) and 3.19 (95% CI, 1.40–7.29) for patients aged ≤50 and >50 years, respectively. Conclusions: The newly developed and validated NGS-based multigene assay can predict the distant recurrence risk in ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Some MACSYMA program for solving difference equations
A set of MACSYMA programs are described for finding closed form solutions to linear recurrence relations in equations having either constant or variable coefficients. In the homogenous case, a polymonial equation is obtained and the solution to the recurrence relation can be written as a linear combination of the roots of the polynomial. Exponential generating functions are used to solve variable coefficient relations. Taking successive derivatives and using the recurrence relation, an ordinary differential equation is obtained. Expanding the solution to the differential equation in a Taylor series, shows that the nth term of the series is the solution to the recurrence relation. For second order recurrences, a check is made for those that can be solved in terms of Bessel functions.
Ivie, J.↗
Identification and Control of Aircrafts using Multiple Models and Adaptive Critics
We compared two possible implementations of local linear models for control: one approach is based on a self-organizing map (SOM) to cluster the dynamics followed by a set of linear models operating at each cluster. Therefore the gating function is hard (a single local model will represent the regional dynamics). This simplifies the controller design since there is a one to one mapping between controllers and local models. The second approach uses a soft gate using a probabilistic framework based on a Gaussian Mixture Model (also called a dynamic mixture of experts). In this approach several models may be active at a given time, we can expect a smaller number of models, but the controller design is more involved, with potentially better noise rejection characteristics. Our experiments showed that the SOM provides overall best performance in high SNRs, but the performance degrades faster than with the GMM for the same noise conditions. The SOM approach required about an order of magnitude more models than the GMM, so in terms of implementation cost, the GMM is preferable. The design of the SOM is straight forward, while the design of the GMM controllers, although still reasonable, is more involved and needs more care in the selection of the parameters. Either one of these locally linear approaches outperform global nonlinear controllers based on neural networks, such as the time delay neural network (TDNN). Therefore, in essence the local model approach warrants practical implementations. In order to call the attention of the control community for this design methodology we extended successfully the multiple model approach to PID controllers (still today the most widely used control scheme in the industry), and wrote a paper on this subject. The echo state network (ESN) is a recurrent neural network with the special characteristics that only the output parameters are trained. The recurrent connections are preset according to the problem domain and are fixed. In a nutshell, the states of the reservoir of recurrent processing elements implement a projection space, where the desired response is optimally projected. This architecture trades training efficiency by a large increase in the dimension of the recurrent layer. However, the power of the recurrent neural networks can be brought to bear on practical difficult problems. Our goal was to implement an adaptive critic architecture implementing Bellman s approach to optimal control. However, we could only characterize the ESN performance as a critic in value function evaluation, which is just one of the pieces of the overall adaptive critic controller. The results were very convincing, and the simplicity of the implementation was unparalleled.
Principe, Jose C.↗
Cancer genomics predicts disease relapse and therapeutic response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy of hormone sensitive breast cancers
Several studies provide insight into the landscape of breast cancer genomics with the genomic characterization of tumors offering exceptional opportunities in defining therapies tailored to the patient’s specific need. However, translating genomic data into personalized treatment regimens has been hampered partly due to uncertainties in deviating from guideline based clinical protocols. Here we report a genomic approach to predict favorable outcome to treatment responses thus enabling personalized medicine in the selection of specific treatment regimens. The genomic data were divided into a training set of N = 835 cases and a validation set consisting of 1315 hormone sensitive, 634 triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) and 1365 breast cancer patients with information on neoadjuvant chemotherapy responses. Patients were selected by the following criteria: estrogen receptor (ER) status, lymph node invasion, recurrence free survival. The k-means classification algorithm delineated clusters with low- and high- expression of genes related to recurrence of disease; a multivariate Cox’s proportional hazard model defined recurrence risk for disease. Classifier genes were validated by Immunohistochemistry (IHC) using tissue microarray sections containing both normal and cancerous tissues and by evaluating findings deposited in the human protein atlas repository. Based on the leave-on-out cross validation procedure of 4 independent data sets we identified 51-genes associated with disease relapse and selected 10, i.e. TOP2A, AURKA, CKS2, CCNB2, CDK1 SLC19A1, E2F8, E2F1, PRC1, KIF11 for in depth validation. Expression of the mechanistically linked disease regulated genes significantly correlated with recurrence free survival among ER-positive and triple negative breast cancer patients and was independent of age, tumor size, histological grade and node status. Importantly, the classifier genes predicted pathological complete responses to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (P < 0.001) with high expression of these genes being associated with an improved therapeutic response toward two different anthracycline-taxane regimens; thus, highlighting the prospective for precision medicine. Our study demonstrates the potential of classifier genes to predict risk for disease relapse and treatment response to chemotherapies. The classifier genes enable rational selection of patients who benefit best from a given chemotherapy thus providing the best possible care. The findings encourage independent clinical validation.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
A Population-Level Summary of Health Care Utilization for the Management of Patellar Tendinopathy in the Military Health System
Abstract Patellar tendinopathy (PT) is a common nontraumatic orthopaedic disorder of the knee suffered by many service members. Understanding the make-up of usual care for PT at the system level can better frame current clinical gaps and areas that need improvement. Exercise therapy is recommended as a core treatment for PT, but it is unclear how often it is used as a part of usual care for PT within the Military Health System (MHS). The purpose of the study was to identify interventions used in the management of PT and the timing of these interventions. A secondary purpose was to determine if exercise therapy use was associated with reduced recurrence of knee pain. In total, 4,719 individuals aged 17 to 50 years in the MHS diagnosed with PT between 2010 and 2011 were included. Pharmacological and nonpharmacological interventions, visits to specialty providers, and imaging services were captured. Descriptive statistics were used to report the findings. Interventions were further categorized as being part of initial care (within the first 7 days), the initial episode of care (within the first 60 days), or the 2-year time period after diagnosis. Linear regression assessed the relationship between the number of exercise therapy visits in the initial episode of care and recurrences of knee pain. In total, 50.6% of this cohort had no more than one medical visit total for PT. Exercise therapy (18.2%) and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (4.3%) were the two most used interventions in the initial episode of care. Radiographs were ordered for 23.1% of the cohort in the initial episode of care. The number of exercise therapy visits a patient received during the initial episode of care was not associated with recurrences of knee pain. Half of the individuals received no further care beyond an initial visit for the diagnosis of PT. Exercise therapy was the most common intervention used during the initial episode of care, but exercise therapy did not influence the recurrence of knee pain.
Orthopedics↗
Superconducting neural networks with disordered Josephson junction array synaptic networks and leaky integrate-and-fire loop neurons
Fully coupled randomly disordered recurrent superconducting networks with additional open-ended channels for inputs and outputs are considered the basis to introduce a new architecture to neuromorphic computing in this work. Various building blocks of such a network are designed around disordered array synaptic networks using superconducting devices and circuits as an example, while emphasizing that a similar architectural approach may be compatible with several other materials and devices. A multiply coupled (interconnected) disordered array of superconducting loops containing Josephson junctions [equivalent to superconducting quantum interference devices (SQUIDs)] forms the aforementioned collective synaptic network that forms a fully recurrent network together with compatible neuron-like elements and feedback loops, enabling unsupervised learning. This approach aims to take advantage of superior power efficiency, propagation speed, and synchronizability of a small world or a random network over an ordered/regular network. Additionally, it offers a significant factor of increase in scalability. Here, a compatible leaky integrate-and-fire neuron made of superconducting loops with Josephson junctions is presented, along with circuit components for feedback loops as needed to complete the recurrent network. Several of these individual disordered array neural networks can further be coupled together in a similarly disordered way to form a hierarchical architecture of recurrent neural networks that is often suggested as similar to a biological brain.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
BCFW tilings and cluster adjacency for the amplituhedron
In 2005, Britto, Cachazo, Feng, and Witten gave a recurrence (now known as the BCFW recurrence) for computing scattering amplitudes in N = 4 super Yang–Mills theory. Arkani-Hamed and Trnka subsequently introduced the amplituhedron to give a geometric interpretation of the BCFW recurrence. Arkani-Hamed and Trnka conjectured that each way of iterating the BCFW recurrence gives a “triangulation” or “tiling” of the m=4 amplituhedron. In this article, we prove the BCFW tiling conjecture of Arkani-Hamed and Trnka. We also prove the cluster adjacency conjecture for BCFW tiles of the amplituhedron, which says that facets of tiles are cut out by collections of compatible cluster variables for the Grassmannian Gr4,n. Moreover we show that each BCFW tile is the subset of the Grassmannian where certain cluster variables have particular signs.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Short-term variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity - 1964-1967
A statistical analysis of time variations in ground-level nucleonic cosmic-ray intensity for the interval from 1964 to 1967 is presented which incorporates synoptic observations of the solar white-light corona as well as indices of photospheric and chromospheric activity. Correlation analysis of solar activity and short-term modulation reveals that all indices vary significantly on time scales near the solar rotation period and that the correlation function exhibits a quasi-sinusoidal variation that maximizes near zero lag. It is found that 27-day variations of the indices were most pronounced in 1966-1967, that recurrent cosmic-ray depressions occurred in conjunction with observed solar-wind disturbances, and that two categories of interplanetary disturbance are sufficient to account for the large recurrent cosmic-ray depressions in 1966-1967. It is suggested that flare-generated shocks were the main source of these recurrent cosmic-ray variations and that the contribution of corotating cosmic-ray disturbances to the observed recurrent modulation was probably very small. This hypothesis is tested against the correlation functions of solar and cosmic-ray indices.
Parker, G. D.↗