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Precursor Analysis Report: Industroyer Targeting Ukraine Electric Power Transport Utility (Ukrenergo) 2016

The Industroyer Targeting Ukraine Electric Power Transport Utility (Ukrenergo) 2016 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the December 2016 cyber attack against the Ukrainian Ukrenergo electric transmission utility and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. Industroyer is a modular malware framework designed to deploy several Industrial Control System (ICS) protocol-specific attack payloads to disrupt electricity distribution. Adversaries deployed Industroyer within the target network on a Microsoft Windows endpoint capable of directly manipulating or communicating with ICS. Industroyer abuses the functionality of a targeted ICS’s legitimate control system to achieve its intended impact. Adversaries likely first gained access to Ukrenergo enterprise networks in early 2016 after a successful spearphishing campaign against organizations in the electric power sector. Adversaries then began capturing credentials beginning on 1 December 2016. This allowed access to the ICS environment at the Pivnichna electric transmission substation outside Kyiv through a device dual-homed on the Information Technology (IT) and ICS networks. Adversaries conducted discovery, targeting, and access to this device using information and previously captured credentials from compromised enterprise IT machines. Finally, the adversaries deployed and launched the Industroyer malware just before midnight on 17 December. By midnight, Ukrenergo had lost control of a targeted substation, resulting in electric power outages for over an hour in the city of Kyiv and the Kyiv region. Researchers and analysts identified 31 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 33 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 846 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Twenty-nine of the identified techniques used during the Industroyer cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 548 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 353 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 300 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

A limit on the total lepton number in the Universe from BBN and the CMB

At temperatures below the QCD phase transition, any substantial lepton number in the Universe can only be present within the neutrino sector. In this work, we systematically explore the impact of a non-vanishing lepton number on Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) and the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). Relying on our recently developed framework based on momentum averaged quantum kinetic equations for the neutrino density matrix, we solve the full BBN reaction network to obtain the abundances of primordial elements. We find that the maximal primordial total lepton number L allowed by BBN and the CMB is -0.12 (-0.10) ≤ L ≤ 0.13 (0.12) for NH (IH), while specific flavor directions can be even more constrained. This bound is complementary to the limits obtained from avoiding baryon overproduction through sphaleron processes at the electroweak phase transition since, although numerically weaker, it applies at lower temperatures and is obtained completely independently. We publicly release the C++ code COFLASY-C on GitHub (https://github.com/mariofnavarro/COFLASY/tree/COFLASY-C) which solves for the evolution of the neutrino quantum kinetic equations numerically.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Source-Resolved Inversion of Elemental Carbon Emissions in California Using Log-Space Bayesian Inference

Elemental carbon (EC), operationally quantified by thermal-optical analysis, is widely used as a proxy for black carbon (BC) relevant to short-term climate forcing and public health. Current EC emission inventories remain highly uncertain, with persistent discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down estimates. In this study, we develop a source-resolved, log-space Bayesian inversion framework applied to estimate California’s statewide EC emissions in 2019. By integrating surface EC measurements from the EPA’s Air Quality System network with high-resolution source contributions simulated by a chemical transport model, we identify a one-third underestimation in the existing statewide EC inventory, requiring an increase of the total from a prior of 8.58 [5.49–13.75] Gg year–1 to a posterior estimate of 12.78 [10.71–15.37] Gg year–1. This discrepancy is primarily driven by substantial underestimations in the power and industrial and off-road mobile sectors. Furthermore, population-weighted exposure analysis reveals a marked sectoral divergence between emission mass and health burden: off-road mobile sources dominate both emissions and exposure, accounting for 31% of statewide exposure, while residential wood combustion contributes 26% of total exposure despite comprising only 19% of total emissions, due to its source proximity to population. These findings underscore the need to update sector-specific EC speciation profiles and demonstrate that mitigation strategies targeting off-road mobile sources and residential wood combustion are critical for reducing EC-related health impacts in California.

Zhang, Jie↗

Clean Energy Cybersecurity Accelerator: Cohort 2 - runZero Public Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER) sponsors the Clean Energy Cybersecurity Accelerator™ (CECA) to expedite the deployment of emerging security technologies that address the most urgent security concerns facing modern and future electric grids. CECA Cohort 2 assessed solutions focused on hidden risks due to incomplete system visibility and device security and configuration. Improving visibility can be achieved through operational technology (OT) asset identification solutions, including capabilities like automatic discovery, vulnerability reporting, and configuration monitoring. Solutions that monitor and identify assets in information technology (IT) networks in other domains are widely used; however, there is far less adoption of monitoring solutions for operational technology environments. Wider adoption may increase with increased confidence in the ability for these solutions to understand and respond to the specific requirements of OT environments. CECA Cohort 2 evaluated the active and passive asset discovery capabilities of market-ready solutions, documented and analyzed results, and identified gaps in functionality or capabilities. This report and describes how these results can help advance the adoption of these and similar solutions in the electric sector.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Clean Energy Cybersecurity Accelerator: Cohort 2 - Asimily Public Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER) sponsors the Clean Energy Cybersecurity Accelerator (TM) (CECA) to expedite the deployment of emerging security technologies that address the most urgent security concerns facing modern and future electric grids. CECA Cohort 2 assessed solutions focused on hidden risks due to incomplete system visibility and device security and configuration. Improving visibility can be achieved through operational technology (OT) asset identification solutions, including capabilities like automatic discovery, vulnerability reporting, and configuration monitoring. Solutions that monitor and identify assets in information technology (IT) networks in other domains are widely used; however, there is far less adoption of monitoring solutions for operational technology environments. Wider adoption may increase with increased confidence in the ability for these solutions to understand and respond to the specific requirements of OT environments. CECA Cohort 2 evaluated the active and passive asset discovery capabilities of market-ready solutions, documented and analyzed results, and identified gaps in functionality or capabilities. This report and describes how these results can help advance the adoption of these and similar solutions in the electric sector.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Local Weather Station Design and Development for Cost-Effective Environmental Monitoring and Real-Time Data Sharing

Current weather monitoring systems often remain out of reach for small-scale users and local communities due to their high costs and complexity. This paper addresses this significant issue by introducing a cost-effective, easy-to-use local weather station. Utilizing low-cost sensors, this weather station is a pivotal tool in making environmental monitoring more accessible and user-friendly, particularly for those with limited resources. It offers efficient in-site measurements of various environmental parameters, such as temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, carbon dioxide concentration, and particulate matter, including PM 1, PM 2.5, and PM 10. The findings demonstrate the station’s capability to monitor these variables remotely and provide forecasts with a high degree of accuracy, displaying an error margin of just 0.67%. Furthermore, the station’s use of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model enables short-term, reliable forecasts crucial for applications in agriculture, transportation, and air quality monitoring. Furthermore, the weather station’s open-source nature significantly enhances environmental monitoring accessibility for smaller users and encourages broader public data sharing. With this approach, crucial in addressing climate change challenges, the station empowers communities to make informed decisions based on real-time data. In designing and developing this low-cost, efficient monitoring system, this work provides a valuable blueprint for future advancements in environmental technologies, emphasizing sustainability. The proposed automatic weather station not only offers an economical solution for environmental monitoring but also features a user-friendly interface for seamless data communication between the sensor platform and end users. This system ensures the transmission of data through various web-based platforms, catering to users with diverse technical backgrounds. Furthermore, by leveraging historical data through the ARIMA model, the station enhances its utility in providing short-term forecasts and supporting critical decision-making processes across different sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Managing Increased Electric Vehicle Shares on Decarbonized Bulk Power Systems

Transportation electrification and power sector decarbonization - the convergence of these two trends present a complex planning problem requiring realistic, region-specific modeling and analysis to ensure that both can happen rapidly and cost effectively. This project, funded through the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office, models the evolution of the U.S. bulk power system (through 2050) in response to large-scale EV charging across all on-road vehicle segments. We will assess the opportunity and value of demand-side flexibility (i.e., "smart" charging) for reducing energy costs, increasing renewable generation shares, and managing future EV loads on the bulk power system. Overall, this study aims to provide an improved understanding of least-cost solutions for managing EV load growth on the grid and will make high-resolution EV load data sets publicly available for further analysis.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

State Policies on Access to Vaccination Services for Low-Income Adults

Importance State vaccination benefits coverage and access for adult Medicaid beneficiaries vary substantially. Multiple studies have documented lower vaccination uptake in publicly insured adults compared with privately insured adults. Objective To evaluate adult Medicaid beneficiaries’ access to adult immunization services through review of vaccination benefits coverage in Medicaid programs across the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Design, Setting, and Participants A public domain document review with supplemental semistructured telephone survey was conducted between June 1, 2018, and June 14, 2019, to evaluate vaccination services benefits in fee-for-service and managed care organization arrangements for adult Medicaid beneficiaries in the 50 states and the District of Columbia (total, 51 Medicaid programs). Exposures Document review of benefits coverage for adult immunization services and supplemental survey with validation of document review findings. Main Outcomes and Measures Benefits coverage for adult Medicaid beneficiaries and reimbursement amounts for vaccine purchase and administration. Results Public domain document review was completed for all 51 jurisdictions. Among these, 44 Medicaid programs (86%) validated document review findings and completed the survey. Only 22 Medicaid programs (43%) covered all 13 Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices–recommended adult immunizations under both fee-for-service and managed care organization arrangements. Most fee-for-service arrangements (37 of 49) reimbursed health care professionals using any of the 4 approved vaccine administration codes; however, 8 of 49 programs did not separately reimburse for vaccine administration to adult Medicaid beneficiaries. Depending on administration route, median reimbursement for adult vaccine administration ranged from $\$9.81$ to $\$13.98$ per dose. Median per-dose reimbursement for adult vaccine purchase was highest for 9-valent human papillomavirus vaccine ($\$204.87$) and lowest for Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine ($\$18.09$). Median reimbursement was below the private sector price for 7 of the 13 included vaccines. Conclusions and Relevance Even in programs with complete vaccination benefits coverage, reimbursement amounts to health care professionals for vaccine purchase and administration may not fully cover vaccination provision costs. Reimbursement amounts below costs may reduce incentives for health care professionals to vaccinate low-income adults and thereby limit Medicaid adult beneficiary access to vaccination.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Advancing Urban Water Resilience: Coproducing Knowledge through Civic–Academic Global Partnerships on Water and Climate

As extreme weather events become more pronounced, the vulnerabilities associated with the urban water supply and wastewater systems in megacities are intensified in multiple interconnected dimensions. These multifaceted water challenges can benefit from enhanced cross-sectoral collaboration and sharing of critical knowledge, which are essential for sustainable and adaptive water governance frameworks. In this context, the Megacity Alliance for Water and Climate (MAWAC)–Europe and North America Region (ENAR) Working Group convened a workshop in March 2023, followed by a subsequent workshop in London, United Kingdom, from 11 to 13 September 2024. These workshops aimed to investigate and devise solutions for the cascading hazards with water systems. The solutions examined various aspects focused on climate adaptation and mitigation, stormwater management, and the governance of water and wastewater systems. Additionally, discussions highlighted the importance of community engagement, economic considerations, equity, and effective communication in addressing these pressing challenges. Over the course of 3 days, experts from academia, government agencies, and industry engaged in meaningful discussions on digital modeling for integrated water management, climate-informed urban planning, and public–private–academic partnerships (Fig. 1). Case studies from cities such as New York, Los Angeles, London, Paris, and Chicago highlighted innovative governance strategies for managing water and wastewater systems, promoting water reuse, planning infrastructure, and fostering stakeholder-driven and stakeholder-informed adaptation. The workshop participants emphasized the need for data-driven decision-making, scalable governance models, and knowledge-sharing networks to enhance urban water governance for sustainability and resilience. This workshop report presents the key takeaways from the 3-day convening, providing a roadmap for integrating scientific research, policy frameworks, and emerging technologies to address water challenges faced by megacities.

Hydrologic models↗

Novel technologies for emission reduction complement conservation agriculture to achieve negative emissions from row-crop production

Plants remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis. Because agriculture’s productivity is based on this process, a combination of technologies to reduce emissions and enhance soil carbon storage can allow this sector to achieve net negative emissions while maintaining high productivity. Unfortunately, current row-crop agricultural practice generates about 5% of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States and European Union. Here, to reduce these emissions, significant effort has been focused on changing farm management practices to maximize soil carbon. In contrast, the potential to reduce emissions has largely been neglected. Through a combination of innovations in digital agriculture, crop and microbial genetics, and electrification, we estimate that a 71% (1,744 kg CO 2 e/ha) reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from row crop agriculture is possible within the next 15 y. Importantly, emission reduction can lower the barrier to broad adoption by proceeding through multiple stages with meaningful improvements that gradually facilitate the transition to net negative practices. Emerging voluntary and regulatory ecosystems services markets will incentivize progress along this transition pathway and guide public and private investments toward technology development. In the difficult quest for net negative emissions, all tools, including emission reduction and soil carbon storage, must be developed to allow agriculture to maintain its critical societal function of provisioning society while, at the same time, generating environmental benefits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Voluntary Renewable Energy Procurement Programs in Regulated Utility Markets

Multinational corporations are increasingly purchasing renewable energy (RE) to fulfill international commitments, reduce supply chain emissions, limit environmental impact, and secure stable and affordable electricity. The potential scale of global corporate RE purchasing has been estimated to be nearly 100 GW and growing; however, many markets still lack supportive enabling environments for corporations to access RE through on-site project development or private sector transactions. Even where allowed by law, on-site generation may be insufficient due to space and technical constraints, introducing additional challenges. Utility green pricing and utility green tariff programs backed by renewable energy certificates (RECs), referred to as utility green procurement programs (GPPs) in this report, offer powerful market-based solutions to utilities, regulators, and policymakers to provide corporate and other consumers with RE product options while generating revenue to support RE development. As RE markets expand around the globe, GPPs have proven to be effective mechanisms in market regimes, ranging from fully integrated state-owned utilities to broadly liberalized power markets. GPPs utilize RECs, which are a type of energy attribute certificate and closely resemble guarantees of origin, to track and ultimately monetize RE attributes that corporations and other buyers must procure to demonstrate progress against their RE commitments and make public claims of RE use. Time-tested and transparent REC accounting mechanisms provide market confidence, while at the same time offering flexibility to utilities, regulators, and customers for a range of applications. RECs are used in all types of electricity market structures, as indicated in Figure 1, but REC-based program designs and supporting components differ depending on the type of market. Liberalized markets allow for customers to contract directly with generators for electricity and RECs, while traditionally regulated markets with vertically integrated utility structures may have greater restrictions on generation asset ownership and electricity sales. RE markets can be further defined as being either mandatory or voluntary. Mandatory markets require suppliers to deliver specified amounts of RE to grid customers, such as under a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), while voluntary markets involve no legal mandates, but demand is driven by self-imposed customer goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

National Reactor Innovation Center Annual Report

The National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC), established in August 2019, is a national United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) program. NRIC’s mission is to partner with industry and national laboratories to bridge the gap between the concept, demonstration, and commercialization of advanced nuclear technology. NRIC accomplishes this through building or enhancing existing DOE infrastructure to support the testing of components and systems that are key to successfully deploying advanced nuclear technology. NRIC works to inspire stakeholders and the public, empower innovators, and deliver successful outcomes through efficient collaboration and coordination with partners. NRIC’s vision is that by 2028, NRIC will be partnered with industry and accelerating the demonstration and deployment of advanced nuclear technology using DOE national laboratory infrastructure and expertise. NRIC will establish four new experimental facilities and two large reactor test beds for integrated technology demonstrations and experimentation by 2028 and complete two advanced nuclear technology tests by 2030. Achieving this vision will enable urgently needed abundant and affordable clean energy both domestically and internationally. NRIC’s success will inspire our nation and the global community to embrace the promising contribution of innovative nuclear reactor technologies to the clean energy economy and re-establish the U.S. as the global leader in advanced nuclear energy. NRIC is tasked with expediting the development of advanced nuclear energy technologies by bringing together private-sector technology developers and the world-class capabilities of the DOE national laboratory system. Through this program, the U.S. private sector is given access to the physical infrastructure available at DOE national laboratories to test and demonstrate their reactor concepts. NRIC works closely with the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN),; which is the DOE-Nuclear Energy (NE) program that grantings access to technical, regulatory, and financial support for commercializing nuclear energy. As observed in Figure 1, NRIC builds upon these new reactor concepts and technology successes to effectively strengthen U.S. nuclear leadership.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Recent Changes to U.S. Coal Plant Operations and Current Compensation Practices

Over the last decade, the U.S. electric power sector has gone through one of the most dramatic changes in its existence. The combination of low natural gas prices as a result of the shale gas revolution and significant reduction in construction and operating costs for renewable resources, in part due to federal tax credits such as the production tax credit and investment tax credit mainly benefitting wind and solar, respectively, has resulted in a significant shift away from coal-fired generation, and instead towards natural gas and renewable generation. Furthermore, the operating profile of existing coal-fired electric generating units has changed significantly. As new natural gas combined cycle plants have become increasingly more efficient and cheaper to operate than older existing coal-fired power plants, coal units continue to lose baseload generation share and more frequently operate as load-following, or cycling, resources. These trends are of particular importance to state public utility commissions. Functioning as economic regulators, commissions oversee investments in a reliable, efficient system while balancing emissions goals, customer demands, and other policy objectives. Changes to coal plant operations as a result of increased competition from other fuel sources may have a bearing on system reliability and economics, and therefore constitute an important area for commissions to monitor.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Developing Smart Building Technology Modules to Enhance Workforce Preparedness: A Case for AI-Driven Academic and Professional Education

Smart building technologies are resources that improve building energy efficiency and resilience, reduce carbon emissions, and provide load flexibility to the grid. However, in both academic curricula and building professionals’ continuing education, there is a lack of systematic instruction on methods to integrate multiple energy systems including distributed energy resources (DER), smart building technologies, AI (Artificial Intelligence) tools and key concepts, components, and controls, including “Internet of Things” (IoT) devices. In today’s dynamic workforce, this major gap in smart building technology education prevents stakeholders from being able to attract talent with an understanding and preparation to adopt smart building technologies in building design and operations. A federally funded project included a partnership between Slipstream and Texas A&M University (TAMU) to develop a semester-long smart building curriculum for engineering college students with the ability to adapt the contents for workforce development of professionals in building services. The final product consists of 16 training videos adapted for building professionals and the public. The educational content and training materials cover the benefits of building energy systems, the latest sensor technologies and IoT devices, all with a focus on smart building technologies. The key drivers are on topics related to smart building controls (i.e., energy management information systems), smart building control platforms, cybersecurity, grid-interactive-efficient buildings (GEBs), smart building control methods, and occupant-centric control. Although not explicitly included the technologies nod to the need for AI driven technologies to prepare engineers and industry professionals to be future ready. This paper describes the project approach, provides outlines of the training materials, and identifies lessons learned in creating the content for this course. The authors suggest ways to scale the instruction of smart building concepts to empower the workforce to accelerate the adoption of smart building technologies and AI-based teaching and learning in higher education and building sector.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

White paper on light sterile neutrino searches and related phenomenology

This white paper provides a comprehensive review of our present understanding of experimental neutrino anomalies that remain unresolved, charting the progress achieved over the last decade at the experimental and phenomenological level, and sets the stage for future programmatic prospects in addressing those anomalies. It is purposed to serve as a guiding and motivational "encyclopedic" reference, with emphasis on needs and options for future exploration that may lead to the ultimate resolution of the anomalies. We see the main experimental, analysis, and theory-driven thrusts that will be essential to achieving this goal being: 1) Cover all anomaly sectors -- given the unresolved nature of all four canonical anomalies, it is imperative to support all pillars of a diverse experimental portfolio, source, reactor, decay-at-rest, decay-in-flight, and other methods/sources, to provide complementary probes of and increased precision for new physics explanations; 2) Pursue diverse signatures -- it is imperative that experiments make design and analysis choices that maximize sensitivity to as broad an array of these potential new physics signatures as possible; 3) Deepen theoretical engagement -- priority in the theory community should be placed on development of standard and beyond standard models relevant to all four short-baseline anomalies and the development of tools for efficient tests of these models with existing and future experimental datasets; 4) Openly share data -- Fluid communication between the experimental and theory communities will be required, which implies that both experimental data releases and theoretical calculations should be publicly available; and 5) Apply robust analysis techniques -- Appropriate statistical treatment is crucial to assess the compatibility of data sets within the context of any given model.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Quasi-sterile neutrinos from dark sectors. Part I. BSM matter effects in neutrino oscillations and the short-baseline anomalies.

Quasi-sterile neutrinos are a natural consequence of dark sectors interacting with the Standard Model (SM) sector via neutrino- and vector-portals. Essentially, quasi-sterile neutrinos are light dark sector fermions with two generic properties: (i) they mix with the active neutrinos of the SM, and (ii) they are charged under a vector mediator that couples feebly to SM matter. Various interesting phenomenological consequences result from this class of particles. In this article, we investigate one such consequence: new, beyond the SM matter effects that can alter in-medium neutrino oscillations. In particular, for special windows of energy and matter densities, active neutrinos can resonantly oscillate into sterile neutrinos. We take advantage of this feature to build a quasi-sterile neutrino model that can explain the MiniBooNE and LSND anomalies, while remaining compatible with observations from long-baseline reactor- and accelerator-based neutrino experiments. This model is also likely compatible with the recent results reported by the MicroBooNE collaboration (albeit we cannot precisely quantify this claim due to a lack of information in MicroBooNE’s public data releases to date). Implications for solar neutrinos and $ν_e$ disappearance searches are also briefly discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A multi-level load shape clustering and disaggregation approach to characterize patterns of energy consumption behavior

This study presents representative electrical load shapes, disaggregated to the end-use level, for over 5000 customer clusters across California’s residential, commercial, industrial and agricultural sectors. We developed a novel, multi-level load shape clustering approach for residential and commercial sectors leveraging interval meter data for over 350,000 California utility customers collected as a part of the Phase 4 California Demand Response (DR) Potential Study. The clustering approach allowed us to identify typical consumption patterns and categorize customers based on their daily load shape displayed throughout the year. For example, we were able to identify customers with particular energy technologies such as electric vehicles and rooftop solar, as well as building occupancy types such as restaurants, grocery stores and even unoccupied buildings, based solely on whole-building interval data. We then combined the load shape-based clusters with other customer information including building type, climate, geographical area, total consumption and low-income status, to create a set of customer clusters based on both demographics and usage patterns. Total cluster electricity demand was then disaggregated into a wide variety of end-uses using weather normalization and other publicly available end-use load shape datasets. The resulting disaggregated cluster load shapes will be released in anonymized form as part of the Phase 4 DR Potential Study. They will have wide-ranging applications in energy research and policy analysis, including estimation of energy efficiency (EE) and DR potential on the end-use level, time-dependent valuation of EE savings, building stock modeling, and developing customer targeting strategies for EE and DR programs.

Murthy, Samanvitha↗

The Role of Innovation in the Electric Utility Sector

Innovation is essential for future power systems to be safe and secure, clean and sustainable, affordable and equitable, and reliable and resilient, according to a recent National Academies report. But state regulatory reforms are needed to encourage adoption of new technologies to support evolution of the nation’s power systems.1 Berkeley Lab's report, The Role of Innovation in the Electric Utility Sector, provides consumer, labor, utility, third-party provider, and clean technology consultant perspectives on this theme. To achieve state targets for clean energy and greenhouse gas emissions, some state regulatory utility commissions are exploring new approaches to spur innovation: -For utilities, regulatory and marketing flexibility, increased funding for demonstration projects, and performance-based ratemaking including multi-year rate plans -For third parties, ways to provide utility customers with innovative products and services directly Among the questions the report addresses: 1. How are consumer advocate views evolving with respect to innovative regulatory and ratemaking approaches? 2. How can utility decarbonization and grid modernization initiatives provide opportunities for local communities and workers to receive tangible benefits and facilitate community support for siting electricity infrastructure? 3. How are electric utilities partnering with technology companies to provide innovative energy management services and sustainable energy solutions for utility customers? 4. What regulatory innovations are public utility commissions exploring to enable third-party providers to participate in the transition to a modern electric system? 5. What regulatory changes are needed to enable innovative solutions from utilities and third parties at the necessary speed and scale to meet state decarbonization goals? The report is the 13th in the Future Electric Utility Regulation series, which taps leading thinkers to tackle complex regulatory issues for electricity. 1 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. The National Academies Press.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗