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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2022

Linking remotely sensed ecosystem resilience with forest mortality across the continental United States

Episodes of forest mortality have been observed worldwide associated with climate change, impacting species composition and ecosystem services such as water resources and carbon sequestration. Yet our ability to predict forest mortality remains limited, especially across large scales. Time series of satellite imagery has been used to document ecosystem resilience globally, but it is not clear how well remotely sensed resilience can inform the prediction of forest mortality across continental, multi-biome scales. Here, we leverage forest inventories across the continental United States to systematically assess the potential of ecosystem resilience derived using different data sets and methods to predict forest mortality. Here we found high resilience was associated with low mortality in eastern forests but was associated with high mortality in western regions. The unexpected resilience–mortality relation in western United States may be due to several factors including plant trait acclimation, insect population dynamics, or resource competition. Overall, our results not only supported the opportunity to use remotely sensed ecosystem resilience to predict forest mortality but also highlighted that ecological factors may have crucial influences because they can reverse the sign of the resilience–mortality relationships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Putting error bars on density functional theory dataset

This dataset contains submission files and raw output files from high-throughput DFT simulations to analyze the systemic errors in lattice constant, bulk moduli and formation energy predictions for a range of binary and ternary oxides using four exchange correlation functionals (LDA, PBE, PBEsol and vdW-DF-C09). This data was then used as the basis for employing materials informatics methods to predict the expected errors in the lattice constants of the studied compounds. Predicted errors were also used to better the DFT-predicted lattice parameters. Our results emphasize the link between the computed errors and the electron density and hybridization errors of a functional. In essence, these results provide “error bars” for choosing a functional for the creation of high-accuracy, high-throughput datasets as well as avenues for the development of XC functionals with enhanced performance, thereby enabling the accelerated discovery and design of new materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

PlasmidHostFinder: Prediction of Plasmid Hosts Using Random Forest

Plasmids play a major role facilitating the spread of antimicrobial resistance between bacteria. Understanding the host range and dissemination trajectories of plasmids is critical for surveillance and prevention of antimicrobial resistance. Identification of plasmid host ranges could be improved using automated pattern detection methods compared to homology-based methods due to the diversity and genetic plasticity of plasmids. In this study, we developed a method for predicting the host range of plasmids using machine learning—specifically, random forests. We trained the models with 8,519 plasmids from 359 different bacterial species per taxonomic level; the models achieved Matthews correlation coefficients of 0.662 and 0.867 at the species and order levels, respectively. Our results suggest that despite the diverse nature and genetic plasticity of plasmids, our random forest model can accurately distinguish between plasmid hosts. This tool is available online through the Center for Genomic Epidemiology (https://cge.cbs.dtu.dk/services/PlasmidHostFinder/).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Regional Carbon Emission Reduction Prediction via Retrofits of Commercial Buildings with a Case Study of US School Buildings in Hot Climates

Retrofitting commercial buildings has great potential to reduce carbon emissions as demonstrated by previous studies in some specific cities, but their regional carbon emission reduction potential is still unknown. Thus, we develop a method to predict the long-term regional carbon emission reduction potential by retrofitting commercial buildings. School buildings in hot climate zones in the continental U.S. are selected as an example. The results show that the aggregated carbon emission reduction potential of school buildings in that region reduces from 3.33 to 2.01 megatons from 2024 to 2050 due to the increased penetration of renewable energy.

building energy simulation↗

DOE OSTI2024

A machine learning approach for determining temperature-dependent bandgap of metal oxides utilizing Allen–Heine–Cardona theory and O’Donnell model parameterization

To evaluate the high temperature sensing properties of metal oxide and perovskite materials suitable for use in combustion environments, it is necessary to understand the temperature dependence of their bandgaps. Although such temperature-driven changes can be calculated via the Allen–Heine–Cardona (AHC) theory, which assesses electron–phonon coupling for the bandgap correction at given temperatures, this approach is computationally demanding. Another approach to predict bandgap temperature-dependence is the O’Donnell model, which uses analytical expressions with multiple fitting parameters that require bandgap information at 0 K. This work employs data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR) to predict the parameters employed in the O’Donnell model from a set of physical features. We use a sample of 54 metal oxides for which density functional theory has been performed to calculate the bandgap at 0 K, and the AHC calculations have been carried out to determine the shift in the bandgap at non-zero temperatures. As the AHC calculations are impractical for high-throughput screening of materials, the developed GPR model attempts to alleviate this issue by predicting the O'Donnell parameters purely from physical features. To mitigate the reliability issues arising from the very small size of the dataset, we apply a Bayesian technique to improve the generalizability of the data-driven models as well as quantify the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The method captures well the overall trend of the O’Donnell parameters with respect to a reduced feature set obtained by transforming the available physical features. Quantifying the associated uncertainty helps us understand the reliability of the predictions of the O’Donnell parameters and, therefore, the bandgap as a function of temperature for any novel material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Artificial Neural Network Models for Octane Number and Octane Sensitivity: A Quantitative Structure Property Relationship Approach to Fuel Design

Octane sensitivity (OS), defined as the research octane number (RON) minus the motor octane number (MON) of a fuel, has gained interest among researchers due to its effect on knocking conditions in internal combustion engines. Compounds with a high OS enable higher efficiencies, especially within advanced compression ignition engines. RON/MON must be experimentally tested to determine OS, requiring time, funding, and specialized equipment. Thus, predictive models trained with existing experimental data and molecular descriptors (via quantitative structure-property relationships (QSPRs)) would allow for the preemptive screening of compounds prior to performing these experiments. Here, the present work proposes two methods for predicting the OS of a given compound: using artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained with QSPR descriptors to predict RON and MON individually to compute OS (derived octane sensitivity (dOS)), and using ANNs trained with QSPR descriptors to directly predict OS. Twenty-five ANNs were trained for both RON and MON and their test sets achieved an overall 6.4% and 5.2% error, respectively. Twenty-five additional ANNs were trained for both dOS and OS; dOS calculations were found to have 15.3% error while predicting OS directly resulted in 9.9% error. A chemical analysis of the top QSPR descriptors for RON/MON and OS is conducted, highlighting desirable structural features for high-performing molecules and offering insight into the inner mathematical workings of ANNs; such chemical interpretations study the interconnections between structural features, descriptors, and fuel performance showing that connectivity, structural diversity, and atomic hybridization consistently drive fuel performance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

pnnl/Pathway_Controlled_Optimization

A method for prediction of cell regulation to maximize cell growth rate while maintaining the solvent capacity of the cell. Prediction is formulated as an optimization problem using a thermodynamic framework that can leverage experimental data. We develop a formulation and variable initialization procedure that allows for computing solutions of the optimization with an interior point method

Central, PNNL Developer↗

DOE OSTI2024

Preliminary Study of Iodine Gas Removal in Sodium Pools

Potential iodine gas release from failed fuel pins is a critical factor in the source term analysis of oxide fuel-loaded sodium fast reactors (SFRs). The accumulated iodine-containing gas mixtures inside pin plenums are expected to be ejected during pin failures and rise through sodium pool, with potential release of gaseous iodine to the cover gas region. Due to its potential radiological impacts, a proper assessment of iodine behavior is necessary for an accurate source term assessment. Throughout the bubble rise trajectory in the sodium pool, iodine gas is continuously removed or transformed at the bubble interface by diffusion, as the combining reaction between the iodine and sodium to form sodium iodide (NaI) is a chemically preferred process. As the final amount of iodine released from the facility is strongly influenced by the removal phenomenon inside the sodium pool, experiments were previously performed by PNC (Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation) to provide insight into this phenomenon. To assess the accuracy of present methods for predicting iodine gas removal within sodium pools, several candidate approaches, available in source term analysis codes, have been summarized and evaluated in this study. Spherical cap bubbles and spherical bubbles are considered in accordance with the methods adopted in each approach, and different forms of correlations for major parameters have been implemented in accordance with the original adoptions. Based on the summarized results, important aspects to be considered have been derived.

Decontamination↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven Stellar Models

We developed a data-driven model to map stellar parameters ( T eff , log g , and [Fe/H]) accurately and precisely to broadband stellar photometry. This model must, and does, simultaneously constrain the passband-specific dust reddening vector in the Milky Way, R. The model uses a neural network to learn the (de-reddened) absolute magnitude in one band and colors across many bands, given stellar parameters from spectroscopic surveys and parallax constraints from Gaia. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach, we train our model on a data set with spectroscopic parameters from LAMOST, APOGEE, and GALAH, Gaia parallaxes, and optical and near-infrared photometry from Gaia, Pan-STARRS 1, Two Micron All Sky Survey and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. Testing the model on these data sets leads to an excellent fit and a precise—and by construction—accurate prediction of the color–magnitude diagrams in many bands. This flexible approach rigorously links spectroscopic and photometric surveys, and also results in an improved, T eff -dependent R. As such, it provides a simple and accurate method for predicting photometry in stellar evolutionary models. Our model will form a basis to infer stellar properties, distances, and dust extinction from photometric data, which should be of great use in 3D mapping of the Milky Way. Our trained model can be obtained at doi:10.5281/zenodo.3902382.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spectroscopy-guided discovery of three-dimensional structures of disordered materials with diffusion models

Spectroscopy techniques such as x-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) provide valuable insights into the atomic structures of materials, yet the inverse prediction of precise structures from spectroscopic data remains a formidable challenge. In this study, we introduce a framework that combines generative artificial intelligence models with XANES spectroscopy to predict three-dimensional atomic structures of disordered systems, using amorphous carbon (a-C) as a model system. In this work, we introduce a new framework based on the diffusion model, a recent generative machine learning method, to predict 3D structures of disordered materials from a target property. For demonstration, we apply the model to identify the atomic structures of a-C as a representative material system from the target XANES spectra. We show that conditional generation guided by XANES spectra reproduces key features of the target structures. Furthermore, we show that our model can steer the generative process to tailor atomic arrangements for a specific XANES spectrum. Finally, our generative model exhibits a remarkable scale-agnostic property, thereby enabling generation of realistic, large-scale structures through learning from a small-scale dataset (i.e. with small unit cells). Our work represents a significant stride in bridging the gap between materials characterization and atomic structure determination; in addition, it can be leveraged for materials discovery in exploring various material properties as targeted.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Knowledge graph-aided Bayesian active learning for top- K genetic interaction discovery

In silico methods for predicting the effects of multi-gene perturbations hold great promise for advancing functional genomics, computational drug discovery, and disease modeling. However, the development of these predictive algorithms for mammalian systems has been hampered by limited datasets and high experimental costs. In this study, we present a Bayesian active learning framework designed to discover pairwise host gene knockdowns that effectively inhibit viral proliferation in an in vitro HIV-1 infection model. Our method leverages a biological knowledge graph as side information and employs a computationally efficient batch diversification approach. We evaluated this framework using a dataset of viral load measurements obtained from multi-day dual-gene depletion experiments, encompassing all possible pairwise knockdowns of over 350 host genes associated with HIV infection. We demonstrate that our framework rapidly identifies the most effective gene knockdown pairs for reducing viral load. Furthermore, we show that incorporating side information enhances performance during the early stages of active learning (low data regime), while our batch diversification strategy significantly boosts performance in later stages (high data regime). This framework is general and can be adapted to explore gene interactions in other contexts, such as synthetic lethality prediction and mapping epistatic effects across quantitative trait loci.

Computational biology and bioinformatics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Long-term impact of light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation on photovoltaic arrays

Low levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) has been identified as critical for widespread adoption of photovoltaics (PV) without subsidies. Maintaining decades-long high-energy production is often an under-recognized opportunity in meeting cost goals because component lifetimes are not fully quantified at the time of manufacture. Whereas certain standardized tests minimize risk of early failure, there is little guidance to quantitatively predict degradation (or lack thereof) over decades, based on accelerated tests. In this article, we move toward bridging the understanding between indoor accelerated tests and outdoor performance data, with the goal of predicting energy yield with enough accuracy to inform financial decisions. Light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation (LETID) in p-type Si modules is analyzed in terms of impact on long-term module performance and thus LCOE. A method to predict the progression of LETID, using fixed kinetic constants and a numerical solution to the basic reaction rate equations, is detailed. Predictions are compared against both published data and that new to this study. These data include both indoor accelerated tests and fielded modules. We use the results in financial models to derive LCOE of modules in different climates with varying amounts of LETID, including uncertainty. Cost models based on the predictions indicate that LETID has a significant and climate-dependent impact on LCOE. Finally, we show that - even given the uncertainties identified in the study - these financial calculations can provide useful guidance to quantify risk based on accelerated test results. The analysis serves as an example of developing a predictive approach to PV reliability using physics of failure.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advanced High-Performance Computational Modeling of the Seismic Response of High-Hazard and/or Nuclear Facilities and Critical Infrastructure at the NNSS

New methods for predicting the amplitude and variability of ground shaking from earthquakes (and explosions) are needed for seismic hazard analysis for buildings, nuclear power plants, and critical infrastructure at the NNSS. We are comparing existing 1-D and new 3-D geophysical methods for estimating the shear-wave velocity structure in the upper 30 meters of the ground surface (Vs30), which plays a major role in ground motion amplification and seismic response of buildings. We evaluate the performance of these methodologies at the U1a Complex at the NNSS and develop simple 1-D and high-resolution 3-D Vs30 models. We then emplace these high-resolution models into a background seismic velocity model. We will collaborate with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to conduct numerical modeling of the ground shaking at the NNSS using their high-performance computing technology and state-of-the-art ground motion simulation methodology. The primary work that was completed in FY 2019 was to acquire the seismic systems and familiarize staff at the NNSS with their use. We also worked on developing a collection plan with the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the NNSS, but due to time constraints and other ongoing projects at the DAF, we had to use U1a as a backup. We were able to coordinate the seismic survey, and we will complete the collection of seismic data in FY 2020. Additionally, during FY 2019, we completed the geologic framework model (GFM) for the U1a Complex and modeled the Yucca fault. LLNL worked with us through FY 2019 to prepare the data files for their modeling software and tested the software for reliability. In FY 2020 we will develop the end-to-end capability so that any facility could easily be modeled and the expected shaking from a local earthquake understood. The work in FY 2020 will include building fault models from the GFM and finalizing the velocity model analysis. The final simulations will be run for multiple rupture models, and final assessments will demonstrate the seismic hazard at the U1a Complex.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Charge-induced atomic strain as a predictor of structural phase transformation in rare-earth intermetallics

We present a descriptor based on charge-induced atomic strain in crystalline lattices for predicting structural phase transformations in rare-earth intermetallic compounds containing lanthanides and transition metals. The charge-induced local atomic strain was obtained from structural optimization of experimentally known crystalline phases using state of the art density-functional theory methods. The predictive power of the descriptor was evaluated on 𝑅⁢𝐸 2 ⁢In (𝑅𝐸 = rare earth) compounds, a class known for diverse phase transformations. We show that incorporating quantum-mechanical effects—such as local charge distribution, bonding, symmetry, and electronic structure—enhances the robustness of the descriptor. To gain further insight, we analyzed phononic and electronic behavior in Y 2 ⁢In and demonstrated that experimental phase transformations are captured only when atomic strain effects are included. The descriptor was further used to predict structural phase changes in (Y⁢b 1–𝑥 ⁢E⁢r 𝑥 ) 2 ⁢In and G⁡d 2 ⁡(I⁢n 1–𝑥⁢ A⁢l 𝑥 ), with predictions confirmed by x-ray powder diffraction. Here, while the current study is focused on lanthanide-based intermetallics, the underlying principles of the descriptor suggest potential applicability to other closely related classes of rare-earth intermetallics.

Density functional theory↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of the metabolic modeling pipeline in KBase to categorize reactions, predict essential genes, and predict pathways in an isolate genome

The DOE Systems Biology Knowledgebase (KBase) platform offers a range of powerful tools for the reconstruction, refinement, and analysis of genome-scale metabolic models built from microbial isolate genomes. In this chapter, we describe and demonstrate these tools in action with an analysis of isoprene production in the Bacillus subtilis DSM genome. Two different methods are applied to build initial metabolic models for the DSM genome, then the models are gapfilled in three different growth conditions. Next, flux balance analysis (FBA) and flux variability analysis (FVA) techniques are applied to both study the growth of these models in minimal media and classify reactions within each model based on essentiality and functionality. The models are applied with the FBA method to predict essential genes, which are then compared to an updated list of essential genes obtained for B. subtilis 168, a very similar strain to the DSM isolate. The models are also applied to simulate Biolog growth conditions, and these results are compared with Biolog data collected for B. subtilis 168. Finally, the DSM metabolic models are applied to explore the pathways and genes responsible for producing isoprene in this strain. These studies demonstrate the accuracy and utility of models generated from the KBase pipelines, as well as exploring the tools available for analyzing these models.

DOE knowledgebase↗

DOE OSTI2021

Application of the Metabolic Modeling Pipeline in KBase to Categorize Reactions, Predict Essential Genes, and Predict Pathways in an Isolate Genome

Allen, Benjamin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Foaming prediction in pure liquids from dimensionless numbers inspired by the theory of fluid behavior for drops

Foaming prediction is critical for selecting materials and designing processes in industries such as bioprocessing and gas processing. Existing models lack the generality needed for a wide range of materials and overlook the foaming behavior in pure liquids. Here, this work presents a novel method for predicting foaming in pure liquids based on their density, surface tension, and viscosity, using Reynolds ( Re ) and Ohnesorge ( Oh ) numbers. A foaming prediction map, leveraging the theory of fluid drop behavior, was developed by plotting these numbers. This map delineates distinct non-foaming and foaming regions, functioning as a binary classifier for foaming predictions. The map was fitted and validated through shake test experiments on 46 liquids, demonstrating reliable predictions, except for a specific region characterized by small Oh and large Re numbers. This region corresponded to relatively low foam stability and high turbulence, making foaming predictions challenging for liquids in this category.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermal conductivity of 3D-printed block-copolymer-inspired structures

This study primarily focuses on examining the impact that geometric structure has on thermal conductivity of multi-phase constructs in different 3D-printed poly(lactic acid), PLA, samples. The investigated structures are inspired by morphologies formed by diblock copolymers: lamellae, hexagonally packed cylinders, and gyroid. This research also investigates how volume percentage and material combination influence the thermal conductivity of these structures. Further, the samples can be tailored to simulate various thermal management structures observed in practical applications, such as thermal interface materials in electronic devices. Thermal conductivity ratio is controlled using air, the least conductive material at 0.026 W/(m K), PLA at 0.136 W/(m K), and thermal paste at 5.11 W/(m K). Different models were tested against thermal conductivity measurements in order to capture the effect of material type (PLA-Air versus PLA-Thermal Paste), volume percentage, structure, and orientation. Simple, effective medium models were good predictions of thermal conductivity in lamellar structures, but it was necessary to develop models for conduction through cylindrical and gyroid structures. Finally, all results were normalized to find a universal model that is independent of structure and material. This approach provides a simple method to predict how to reduce or enhance transport properties and heat management capabilities of 3D printed objects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗