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DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying sources of subseasonal prediction skill in CESM2

Abstract Subseasonal prediction fills the gap between weather forecasts and seasonal outlooks. There is evidence that predictability on subseasonal timescales comes from a combination of atmosphere, land, and ocean initial conditions. Predictability from the land is often attributed to slowly varying changes in soil moisture and snowpack, while predictability from the ocean is attributed to sources such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Here we use a set of subseasonal reforecast experiments with CESM2 to quantify the respective roles of atmosphere, land, and ocean initial conditions on subseasonal prediction skill over land. These reveal that the majority of prediction skill for global surface temperature in weeks 3–4 comes from the atmosphere, while ocean initial conditions become important after week 4, especially in the Tropics. In the CESM2 subseasonal prediction system, the land initial state does not contribute to surface temperature prediction skill in weeks 3–6 and climatological land conditions lead to higher skill, disagreeing with our current understanding. However, land-atmosphere coupling is important in week 1. Subseasonal precipitation prediction skill also comes primarily from the atmospheric initial condition, except for the Tropics, where after week 4 the ocean state is more important.

Richter, Jadwiga H. (ORCID:0000000170480781)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven prediction of scaling and ignition of inertial confinement fusion experiments

Recent advances in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), including ignition and energy gain, are enabled by a close coupling between experiments and high-fidelity simulations. Neither simulations nor experiments can fully constrain the behavior of ICF implosions on their own, meaning pre- and postshot simulation studies must incorporate experimental data to be reliable. Linking past data with simulations to make predictions for upcoming designs and quantifying the uncertainty in those predictions has been an ongoing challenge in ICF research. We have developed a data-driven approach to prediction and uncertainty quantification that combines large ensembles of simulations with Bayesian inference and deep learning. The approach builds a predictive model for the statistical distribution of key performance parameters, which is jointly informed by past experiments and physics simulations. The prediction distribution captures the impact of experimental uncertainty, expert priors, design changes, and shot-to-shot variations. We have used this new capability to predict a 10× increase in ignition probability between Hybrid-E shots driven with 2.05 MJ compared to 1.9 MJ, and validated our predictions against subsequent experiments. We describe our new Bayesian postshot and prediction capabilities, discuss their application to NIF ignition and validate the results, and finally investigate the impact of data sparsity on our prediction results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Combining protein sequences and structures with transformers and equivariant graph neural networks to predict protein function

Abstract Motivation Millions of protein sequences have been generated by numerous genome and transcriptome sequencing projects. However, experimentally determining the function of the proteins is still a time consuming, low-throughput, and expensive process, leading to a large protein sequence-function gap. Therefore, it is important to develop computational methods to accurately predict protein function to fill the gap. Even though many methods have been developed to use protein sequences as input to predict function, much fewer methods leverage protein structures in protein function prediction because there was lack of accurate protein structures for most proteins until recently. Results We developed TransFun—a method using a transformer-based protein language model and 3D-equivariant graph neural networks to distill information from both protein sequences and structures to predict protein function. It extracts feature embeddings from protein sequences using a pre-trained protein language model (ESM) via transfer learning and combines them with 3D structures of proteins predicted by AlphaFold2 through equivariant graph neural networks. Benchmarked on the CAFA3 test dataset and a new test dataset, TransFun outperforms several state-of-the-art methods, indicating that the language model and 3D-equivariant graph neural networks are effective methods to leverage protein sequences and structures to improve protein function prediction. Combining TransFun predictions and sequence similarity-based predictions can further increase prediction accuracy. Availability and implementation The source code of TransFun is available at https://github.com/jianlin-cheng/TransFun.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating crystal structure determination with iterative AlphaFold prediction

Experimental structure determination can be accelerated with artificial intelligence (AI)-based structure-prediction methods such as AlphaFold . Here, an automatic procedure requiring only sequence information and crystallographic data is presented that uses AlphaFold predictions to produce an electron-density map and a structural model. Iterating through cycles of structure prediction is a key element of this procedure: a predicted model rebuilt in one cycle is used as a template for prediction in the next cycle. This procedure was applied to X-ray data for 215 structures released by the Protein Data Bank in a recent six-month period. In 87% of cases our procedure yielded a model with at least 50% of C α atoms matching those in the deposited models within 2 Å. Predictions from the iterative template-guided prediction procedure were more accurate than those obtained without templates. It is concluded that AlphaFold predictions obtained based on sequence information alone are usually accurate enough to solve the crystallographic phase problem with molecular replacement, and a general strategy for macromolecular structure determination that includes AI-based prediction both as a starting point and as a method of model optimization is suggested.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

GRUMDN: A Multi-Task Model for Predicting Human Patterns-of-Life from Stay Transition Data

Understanding human patterns-of-life (PoL) is essential towards ensuring safe and secure indoor facility environment as well as outdoor urban environment. Prediction of human movement in between places of interest is vital in understanding human PoL. Movement between spaces maybe represented and detected in one of the two forms: 1) trajectories: locations measured at regular time intervals by mobile sensors, bluetooth or GPS sensors; or 2) stay transitions: semantic PoI (points of interest) and stay duration data measurable by eventbased sensors that collect data when a check-in or check-out event is detected. Stay transition data provides a more compressed data format compared to trajectories data, especially in situations with longer stay durations, while preserving the information necessary for PoL analysis. Now as introduced briefly in the paper, our deployed end application (Digital Twin of a facility with non-player characters, besides the interactive user in virtual reality) needed a well-performing and validated AI/ML model for simulating high quality stay transitions behavior. In this study we thus primarily present our findings with developing and validating that model, which is a multi-task neural network for stay transition prediction. The neural network consists of two heads, for corresponding two tasks of stay category prediction and stay duration prediction. We evaluated gated recurrent units and multi-layer perceptrons of varying network sizes for stay category prediction; while mixture density networks, noisy generator-only networks, and generative adversarial networks of varying network sizes for stay duration prediction. We have then evaluated four multi-task models, constructed by combining these specialized models, on their ability to predict stay transition data. We tested our models on datasets from two different cases: 1) a simulation-generated dataset of indoor movement within the HFIR (high flux isotope reactor) nuclear reactor facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); and 2) the GeoLife human mobility dataset of outdoor urban movement available in literature. Our results indicate that GRUMDN, which combines gated recurrent units (GRU) for stay category prediction task, and mixture density networks (MDN) for stay duration prediction task, did overall outperform other multitask models and the current state-of-the-art.

Gunaratne, Chathika [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000225088745↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Digital Twin Framework Utilizing Machine Learning for Robust Predictive Maintenance: Enhancing Tire Health Monitoring

We introduce a novel digital twin (DT) framework for the predictive maintenance of long-term physical systems. Using monitoring tire health as an application, we show how the DT framework can be used to enhance automotive safety and efficiency, and how the technical challenges can be overcome using a three-step approach. First, to manage the data complexity over a long operation span, we employ data reduction techniques to concisely represent physical tires using historical performance and usage data. Relying on these data, for fast real-time prediction, we train a transformer-based model offline on our concise dataset to predict future tire health over time, represented as remaining casing potential (RCP). Based on our architecture, our model quantifies both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, providing reliable confidence intervals around predicted RCP. Second, to incorporate real-time data, we update the predictive model in the DT framework, ensuring its accuracy throughout its lifespan with the aid of hybrid modeling and the use of the discrepancy function. Third, to assist decision-making in predictive maintenance, we implement a tire state decision algorithm, which strategically determines the optimal timing for tire replacement based on RCP forecasted by our transformer model. This approach ensures that our DT accurately predicts system health, continually refines its digital representation, and supports predictive maintenance decisions. Furthermore, our framework effectively embodies a physical system, leveraging big data and machine learning (ML) for predictive maintenance, model updates, and decision-making.

advanced computing infrastructure↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Antimicrobial Resistance Using Partial Genome Alignments

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an important global health threat that impacts millions of people worldwide each year. Developing methods that can detect and predict AMR phenotypes can help to mitigate the spread of AMR by informing clinical decision making and appropriate mitigation strategies. Many bioinformatic methods have been developed for predicting AMR phenotypes from whole-genome sequences and AMR genes, but recent studies have indicated that predictions can be made from incomplete genome sequence data. In order to more systematically understand this, we built random forest-based machine learning classifiers for predicting susceptible and resistant phenotypes for Klebsiella pneumoniae (1,640 strains), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (2,497 strains), and Salmonella enterica (1,981 strains). We started by building models from alignments that were based on a reference chromosome for each species. We then subsampled each chromosomal alignment and built models for the resulting subalignments, finding that very small regions, representing approximately 0.1 to 0.2% of the chromosome, are predictive. In K. pneumoniae, M. tuberculosis, and S. enterica, the subalignments are able to predict multiple AMR phenotypes with at least 70% accuracy, even though most do not encode an AMR-related function. We used these models to identify regions of the chromosome with high and low predictive signals. Finally, subalignments that retain high accuracy across larger phylogenetic distances were examined in greater detail, revealing genes and intergenic regions with potential links to AMR, virulence, transport, and survival under stress conditions. IMPORTANCE Antimicrobial resistance causes thousands of deaths annually worldwide. Understanding the regions of the genome that are involved in antimicrobial resistance is important for developing mitigation strategies and preventing transmission. Machine learning models are capable of predicting antimicrobial resistance phenotypes from bacterial genome sequence data by identifying resistance genes, mutations, and other correlated features. They are also capable of implicating regions of the genome that have not been previously characterized as being involved in resistance. In this study, we generated global chromosomal alignments for Klebsiella pneumoniae, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and Salmonella enterica and systematically searched them for small conserved regions of the genome that enable the prediction of antimicrobial resistance phenotypes. In addition to known antimicrobial resistance genes, this analysis identified genes involved in virulence and transport functions, as well as many genes with no previous implication in antimicrobial resistance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improved Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole Using a Stochastic Dynamical Model Compared to the North American Multimodel Ensemble Forecast

This study assesses the predictive skill of eight North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) models in predicting the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). We find that the forecasted ensemble-mean IOD–El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship deteriorates away from the observed relationship with increasing lead time, which might be one reason that limits the IOD predictive skill in coupled models. We are able to improve the IOD predictive skill using a recently developed stochastic dynamical model (SDM) forced by forecasted ENSO conditions. The results are consistent with the previous result that operational IOD predictability beyond persistence at lead times beyond one season is mostly controlled by ENSO predictability and the signal-to-noise ratio of the Indo-Pacific climate system. The multimodel ensemble (MME) investigated here is found to be of superior skill compared to each individual model at most lead times. Importantly, the skill of the SDM IOD predictions forced with forecasted ENSO conditions were either similar or better than those of the MME IOD forecasts. Moreover, the SDM forced with observed ENSO conditions exhibits significantly higher IOD prediction skill than the MME at longer lead times, suggesting the large potential skill increase that could be achieved by improving operational ENSO forecasts. We find that both cold and warm biases of the predicted Niño-3.4 index may cause false alarms of negative and positive IOD events, respectively, in NMME models. Many false alarms for IOD forecasts at lead times longer than one season in the original forecasts disappear or are significantly reduced in the SDM forced by forecasted ENSO conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of New Additions to OLI Software in Predicting Mercuric and Mercurous Species in Liquid Waste Operations

Speciation of mercury during the pretreatment steps of tank waste processing is critical to successful mercury removal prior to vitrification during Liquid Waste Operations (LWO) at SRS. OLI software has been used to predict mercury speciation and activity throughout LWO. The OLI software operates based on a thermodynamic framework called the Mixed Solvent Electrolyte (MSE) framework. The MSE framework allows prediction in theoretically infinitely dilute to concentrated mixtures (e.g., purely solute solutions). Before modification to the MSE framework databanks, certain critical mercury species were missing in the MSE databank, and some thermodynamic data needed to be updated for the OLI software to accurately predict mercury chemical species in SRS waste tanks. To better reflect streams across LWO, new mercury species were integrated into the MSE database. To evaluate the changes to the OLI MSE framework per the Technical Task Request (TTR) and the Task Technical and Quality Assurance Plan (TTQAP), waste stream compositions from Tanks 38, 43, and Tank 50 decontaminated salt solution (DSS) were used as model inputs. Models were developed and executed using both the old and new databases. Compositional analyses from caustic Tank 50 DSS and caustic Tanks 38 and 43 were used as the input streams. These streams represent the most comprehensive chemical data sets where both mercury and tank constituents were measured together. Results for Tank 50 DSS predict HgO as the predominant species in both databases. Both methyl and dimethyl Hg species are present when the new database is ‘on’ and are not predicted with the new database turned ‘off’. The new database predicts a greater amount of HgO and a greater fraction of it in the solid phase. Pourbaix diagrams (potential vs. pH) generated for each Tank 50 DSS were identical regardless of which database was used. Elemental Hg and HgO were predicted in the water stable region under basic conditions. Tanks 38 and 43 follow similar trends as the Tank 50 DSS models. Unlike Tanks 38 and 50 DSS, the Tank 43 Pourbaix plot shows a region of stability for an aqueous HgOHCO3 - species between approximately pH 7-11. In all streams, when MeHg+ is included in the inputs, the new database predicts aqueous MeHgOH as the dominant species. If elemental or dimethyl mercury is in the waste stream, the new database model predicts they are unchanged and remain in those states and quantities. Additionally, the total mercury values are reported for both the measured input data and the OLI output data for all considered tanks. The summary indicates that the percentage error between the measured and calculated values is less than 1% in all cases The reconciliations and generation of the Pourbaix diagrams for Tank 50 DSS took approximately ten times longer with the new database ‘on’. In addition, over the course of that time, models with the new database ‘on’ were more likely to crash or display an error. Some modest performance improvements were noted when modeling with an i7 processor versus an i5. An example error is found in Appendix A. Furthermore, Appendix B provides V&V for two chemical systems analyzed with the OLI software, results were satisfactory. It is recommended to utilize the new databases (i.e., HCO.ddb and SR-Hg.ddb) in future Savannah River Mission Completion applications of OLI to represent pseudo steady-state. Furthermore, the integration and utilization of the new databases (i.e., HCO.ddb and SR-Hg.ddb) in modeling applications (e.g., Aspen) is also recommended.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Prediction of Research/Motor Octane Number and Octane Sensitivity Using Artificial Neural Networks

Octane sensitivity (OS), dfined as the research octane number (RON) minus the motor octane number (MON) of a given fuel, has gained interest among researchers due to its apparent ffect on knocking conditions in internal combustion engines. Compounds with a high OS enable higher efficiencies, especially with respect to advanced compression ignition engines. RON/MON must be experimentally tested to determine OS; however, the experimental methods utilized require a substantial amount of time, a significant monetary investment, and specialized equipment. To this end, predictive computational models trained with existing experimental data and molecular properties would allow for the preemptive screening of compounds prior to performing these experiments. The present work proposes two methods for predicting the OS of a given compound: using artficial neural networks (ANNs) trained with quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) descriptors to predict RON and MON individually to compute OS from RON/MON predictions (derived octane sensitivity, dOS), and using an ANN trained with QSPR descriptors to directly predict OS. ANNs trained to predict RON and MON achieved test set root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of 10.499 and 7.551 respectively. dOS calculations were found to have a test set RMSE of 6.432 while predicting OS directly resulted in a test set RMSE of 7.019, showing it is more bene cial to obtain OS from RON/MON predictions than predicting it directly. Furthermore, relationships between individual QSPR descriptors and RON/MON/OS are discussed, highlighting correlations between specfic molecular features and these properties.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1999

Potential Predictability of the Monsoon Subclimate Systems

While El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be predicted with some success using coupled oceanic-atmospheric models, the skill of predicting the tropical monsoons is low regardless of the methods applied. The low skill of monsoon prediction may be either because the monsoons are not defined appropriately or because they are not influenced significantly by boundary forcing. The latter characterizes the importance of internal dynamics in monsoon variability and leads to many eminent chaotic features of the monsoons. In this study, we analyze results from nine AMIP-type ensemble experiments with the NASA/GEOS-2 general circulation model to assess the potential predictability of the tropical climate system. We will focus on the variability and predictability of tropical monsoon rainfall on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. It is known that the tropical climate is more predictable than its extratropical counterpart. However, predictability is different from one climate subsystem to another within the tropics. It is important to understand the differences among these subsystems in order to increase our skill of seasonal-to-interannual prediction. We assess potential predictability by comparing the magnitude of internal and forced variances as defined by Harzallah and Sadourny (1995). The internal variance measures the spread among the various ensemble members. The forced part of rainfall variance is determined by the magnitude of the ensemble mean rainfall anomaly and by the degree of consistency of the results from the various experiments.

Yang, Song↗

NASA NTRS1999

Tiltrotor Aeroacoustic Code (TRAC) Prediction Assessment and Initial Comparisons With TRAM Test Data

A prediction sensitivity assessment to inputs and blade modeling is presented for the TiltRotor Aeroacoustic Code (TRAC). For this study, the non-CFD prediction system option in TRAC is used. Here, the comprehensive rotorcraft code, CAMRAD.Mod 1, coupled with the high-resolution sectional loads code HIRES, predicts unsteady blade loads to be used in the noise prediction code WOPWOP. The sensitivity of the predicted blade motions, blade airloads, wake geometry, and acoustics is examined with respect to rotor rpm, blade twist and chord, and to blade dynamic modeling. To accomplish this assessment. an interim input-deck for the TRAM test model and an input-deck for a reference test model are utilized in both rigid and elastic modes. Both of these test models are regarded as near scale models of the V-22 proprotor (tiltrotor). With basic TRAC sensitivities established, initial TRAC predictions are compared to results of an extensive test of an isolated model proprotor. The test was that of the TiltRotor Aeroacoustic Model (TRAM) conducted in the Duits-Nederlandse Windtunnel (DNW). Predictions are compared to measured noise for the proprotor operating over an extensive range of conditions. The variation of predictions demonstrates the great care that must be taken in defining the blade motion. However, even with this variability, the predictions using the different blade modeling successfully capture (bracket) the levels and trends of the noise for conditions ranging from descent to ascent.

Burley, Casey L.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Tiltrotor Aeroacoustic Code (TRAC) Prediction Assessment and Initial Comparisons with Tram Test Data

A prediction sensitivity assessment to inputs and blade modeling is presented for the TiltRotor Aeroacoustic Code (TRAC). For this study, the non-CFD prediction system option in TRAC is used. Here, the comprehensive rotorcraft code, CAMRAD.Mod1, coupled with the high-resolution sectional loads code HIRES, predicts unsteady blade loads to be used in the noise prediction code WOPWOP. The sensitivity of the predicted blade motions, blade airloads, wake geometry, and acoustics is examined with respect to rotor rpm, blade twist and chord, and to blade dynamic modeling. To accomplish this assessment, an interim input-deck for the TRAM test model and an input-deck for a reference test model are utilized in both rigid and elastic modes. Both of these test models are regarded as near scale models of the V-22 proprotor (tiltrotor). With basic TRAC sensitivities established, initial TRAC predictions are compared to results of an extensive test of an isolated model proprotor. The test was that of the TiltRotor Aeroacoustic Model (TRAM) conducted in the Duits-Nederlandse Windtunnel (DNW). Predictions are compared to measured noise for the proprotor operating over an extensive range of conditions. The variation of predictions demonstrates the great care that must be taken in defining the blade motion. However, even with this variability, the predictions using the different blade modeling successfully capture (bracket) the levels and trends of the noise for conditions ranging from descent to ascent.

Burley, Casey L.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Estimation of Separation Buffers for Wind-Prediction Error in an Airborne Separation Assistance System

Wind prediction errors are known to affect the performance of automated air traffic management tools that rely on aircraft trajectory predictions. In particular, automated separation assurance tools, planned as part of the NextGen concept of operations, must be designed to account and compensate for the impact of wind prediction errors and other system uncertainties. In this paper we describe a high fidelity batch simulation study designed to estimate the separation distance required to compensate for the effects of wind-prediction errors throughout increasing traffic density on an airborne separation assistance system. These experimental runs are part of the Safety Performance of Airborne Separation experiment suite that examines the safety implications of prediction errors and system uncertainties on airborne separation assurance systems. In this experiment, wind-prediction errors were varied between zero and forty knots while traffic density was increased several times current traffic levels. In order to accurately measure the full unmitigated impact of wind-prediction errors, no uncertainty buffers were added to the separation minima. The goal of the study was to measure the impact of wind-prediction errors in order to estimate the additional separation buffers necessary to preserve separation and to provide a baseline for future analyses. Buffer estimations from this study will be used and verified in upcoming safety evaluation experiments under similar simulation conditions. Results suggest that the strategic airborne separation functions exercised in this experiment can sustain wind prediction errors up to 40kts at current day air traffic density with no additional separation distance buffer and at eight times the current day with no more than a 60% increase in separation distance buffer.

Consiglio, Maria C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Prediction of Landing Gear Noise Reduction and Comparison to Measurements

Noise continues to be an ongoing problem for existing aircraft in flight and is projected to be a concern for next generation designs. During landing, when the engines are operating at reduced power, the noise from the airframe, of which landing gear noise is an important part, is equal to the engine noise. There are several methods of predicting landing gear noise, but none have been applied to predict the change in noise due to a change in landing gear design. The current effort uses the Landing Gear Model and Acoustic Prediction (LGMAP) code, developed at The Pennsylvania State University to predict the noise from landing gear. These predictions include the influence of noise reduction concepts on the landing gear noise. LGMAP is compared to wind tunnel experiments of a 6.3%-scale Boeing 777 main gear performed in the Quiet Flow Facility (QFF) at NASA Langley. The geometries tested in the QFF include the landing gear with and without a toboggan fairing and the door. It is shown that LGMAP is able to predict the noise directives and spectra from the model-scale test for the baseline configuration as accurately as current gear prediction methods. However, LGMAP is also able to predict the difference in noise caused by the toboggan fairing and by removing the landing gear door. LGMAP is also compared to far-field ground-based flush-mounted microphone measurements from the 2005 Quiet Technology Demonstrator 2 (QTD 2) flight test. These comparisons include a Boeing 777-300ER with and without a toboggan fairing that demonstrate that LGMAP can be applied to full-scale flyover measurements. LGMAP predictions of the noise generated by the nose gear on the main gear measurements are also shown.

Lopes, Leonard V.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Jet Noise Diagnostics Supporting Statistical Noise Prediction Methods

The primary focus of my presentation is the development of the jet noise prediction code JeNo with most examples coming from the experimental work that drove the theoretical development and validation. JeNo is a statistical jet noise prediction code, based upon the Lilley acoustic analogy. Our approach uses time-average 2-D or 3-D mean and turbulent statistics of the flow as input. The output is source distributions and spectral directivity. NASA has been investing in development of statistical jet noise prediction tools because these seem to fit the middle ground that allows enough flexibility and fidelity for jet noise source diagnostics while having reasonable computational requirements. These tools rely on Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solutions as input for computing far-field spectral directivity using an acoustic analogy. There are many ways acoustic analogies can be created, each with a series of assumptions and models, many often taken unknowingly. And the resulting prediction can be easily reverse-engineered by altering the models contained within. However, only an approach which is mathematically sound, with assumptions validated and modeled quantities checked against direct measurement will give consistently correct answers. Many quantities are modeled in acoustic analogies precisely because they have been impossible to measure or calculate, making this requirement a difficult task. The NASA team has spent considerable effort identifying all the assumptions and models used to take the Navier-Stokes equations to the point of a statistical calculation via an acoustic analogy very similar to that proposed by Lilley. Assumptions have been identified and experiments have been developed to test these assumptions. In some cases this has resulted in assumptions being changed. Beginning with the CFD used as input to the acoustic analogy, models for turbulence closure used in RANS CFD codes have been explored and compared against measurements of mean and rms velocity statistics over a range of jet speeds and temperatures. Models for flow parameters used in the acoustic analogy, most notably the space-time correlations of velocity, have been compared against direct measurements, and modified to better fit the observed data. These measurements have been extremely challenging for hot, high speed jets, and represent a sizeable investment in instrumentation development. As an intermediate check that the analysis is predicting the physics intended, phased arrays have been employed to measure source distributions for a wide range of jet cases. And finally, careful far-field spectral directivity measurements have been taken for final validation of the prediction code. Examples of each of these experimental efforts will be presented. The main result of these efforts is a noise prediction code, named JeNo, which is in middevelopment. JeNo is able to consistently predict spectral directivity, including aft angle directivity, for subsonic cold jets of most geometries. Current development on JeNo is focused on extending its capability to hot jets, requiring inclusion of a previously neglected second source associated with thermal fluctuations. A secondary result of the intensive experimentation is the archiving of various flow statistics applicable to other acoustic analogies and to development of time-resolved prediction methods. These will be of lasting value as we look ahead at future challenges to the aeroacoustic experimentalist.

Bridges, James E.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Solar Cycle Predictions

Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

Pesnell, William Dean↗

NASA NTRS2019

Casper-1, Part 6: Uncertainty Quantification, Factor Effects, and Outlier Analysis for an On-Board Airplane Trajectory Prediction Function

This report presents data analysis results for a simulation-based approach named CASPEr (Characterization of Airplane State Prediction Error) to characterize the performance of onboard energy state and automation mode prediction functions for terminal area arrival and approach phases of flight over a wide range of conditions. In particular, the results include quantification of energy state (i.e., altitude and airspeed) prediction performance, models for prediction performance as a function of initial energy state (i.e., initial altitude, airspeed, and weight) and weather factors, and analysis of outlier prediction performance. Wind speed, wind direction, and wind gradient were found to be major factors in energy state prediction performance. Initial energy and gust intensity were also significant factors in airspeed prediction performance. Furthermore, the results suggest that errors in automation mode prediction may be a major contributor to outlier prediction performance.

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo↗