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DOE OSTI2026

A Methodology to Evaluate the Grid Reliability Impact of Oscillations Induced by Large Loads

The rapid growth of hyperscale AI data centers is bringing renewed attention to the reliability risk that sustained forced oscillations pose to bulk power systems, with cyclic computational workloads emerging as a new forcing source. Unlike the broadband, stochastic disturbances from traditional industrial loads such as arc furnaces, AI training and inference facilities can inject large active power swings concentrated at specific frequencies over extended durations - characteristics that existing grid planning practices do not account for. While the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has recognized this gap and called for system-level studies of large load interconnections, no standardized methodology exists to screen, simulate, and quantify these risks at the planning stage. This report presents the Risk Assessment Tool for Large Load-induced Events (RATLLE), a Python-based, publicly available script suite developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate bulk power system reliability risks from data center-induced oscillations. RATLLE implements a three-module workflow: a screening module that identifies vulnerable interconnection locations and excitable system modes; a simulation module that models cyclic data center load behavior using a commercial positive sequence simulation platform; and an analysis module that computes risk metrics and generates interactive visualization dashboards. The risk metrics, formulated around simulation observables, map oscillation impacts to a three-stage severity scale spanning latent equipment fatigue through imminent cascading failure. The methodology is demonstrated on two Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system models: a publicly available 240-bus reduced representation and a detailed 2031 Heavy Winter planning case. Case studies illustrate that even modest 50 MW forced oscillations at resonant frequencies can produce wide-area power swings, N-1 security constraint violations, and cascading generator trips through protection actions - outcomes that would not occur under normal operating conditions without oscillations present. The results underscore the need for standardized oscillation impact assessment in large load interconnection studies and provide a reproducible, extensible framework for utilities to adopt or customize within their existing planning workflows.

Biswas, Shuchismita↗

DOE OSTI2022

Providencia Island White Papers: Hawaii, USA: A Grid Planning Case Study for Providencia Island, Colombia

Special considerations exist for island grids seeking to smoothly integrate distributed energy resources (DERs), such as rooftop photovoltaics (PV), with an existing fossil fuel-based grid without compromising system stability and reliability. Hawaii, having successfully integrated nonconventional renewable energy sources for a hybrid electricity grid, may serve as a guide for technical specifications and interconnection policy. Island grid planners may seek to follow Hawaii's example by standardizing technical specifications of generators, particularly for advanced inverter components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1987

Recovering from execution errors in SIPE

In real-world domains (e.g., a mobile robot environment), things do not always proceed as planned, so it is important to develop better execution-monitoring techniques and replanning capabilities. These capabilities in the SIPE planning system are described. The motivation behind SIPE is to place enough limitations on the representation so that planning can be done efficiently, while retaining sufficient power to still be useful. This work assumes that new information given to the execution monitor is in the form of predicates, thus avoiding the difficult problem of how to generate these predicates from information provided by sensors. The replanning module presented here takes advantage of the rich structure of SIPE plans and is intimately connected with the planner, which can be called as a subroutine. This allows the use of SIPE's capabilities to determine efficiently how unexpected events affect the plan being executed and, in many cases, to retain most of the original plan by making changes in it to avoid problems caused by these unexpected events. SIPE is also capable of shortening the original plan when serendipitous events occur. A general set of replanning actions is presented along with a general replanning capability that has been implemented by using these actions.

Wilkins, D. E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

EVI-Rental: A Scalable Model to Quantify the Impact of Rental Car Electrification

This fact sheet describes the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - Rental Car (EVI-Rental) tool, a flexible and comprehensive simulation tool that addresses key questions about the charging demand, infrastructure needs, and business impacts of adding growing numbers of electric vehicles (EVs) to rental fleets. To validate the EVI-Rental model, the Athena research team conducted a case study at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) to understand the impact of state-of-charge requirements, different charger types and charging schedules, solar power generation, and behind-the-meter storage on a fully electrified rental car fleet.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1981

The Solar Optical Telescope /SOT/

The Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) is a 1-m class, high resolution solar telescope which NASA plans to operate on the Shuttle Spacelab during the mid and late 1980's. SOT will provide resolution down to 0.1 arcsec, and can therefore be used to solve many problems of solar atmosphere structure and dynamics. In particular, SOT should provide definite data on (1) the source of the sun's magnetic field, (2) the amount of power in waves generated in the photosphere, (3) the heating of the chromosphere, and (4) the local and global mass and energy balance in the solar transition region. The SOT Scientific Working Group will help plan, develop, and update the overall scientific plan for the SOT, as well as make recommendations with regard to the SOT project, instrumentation optimization, and scientific data management.

Jordan, S. D.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Balancing renewable energy and river resources by moving from individual assessments of hydropower projects to energy system planning

As governments and non-state actors strive to minimize global warming, a primary strategy is the decarbonization of power systems which will require a massive increase in renewable electricity generation. Leading energy agencies forecast a doubling of global hydropower capacity as part of that necessary expansion of renewables. While hydropower provides generally low-carbon generation and can integrate variable renewables, such as wind and solar, into electrical grids, hydropower dams are one of the primary reasons that only one-third of the world’s major rivers remain free-flowing. This loss of free-flowing rivers has contributed to dramatic declines of migratory fish and sediment delivery to agriculturally productive deltas. Further, the reservoirs behind dams have displaced tens of millions of people. Thus, hydropower challenges the world’s efforts to meet climate targets while simultaneously achieving other Sustainable Development Goals. In this paper, we explore strategies to achieve the needed renewable energy expansion while sustaining the diverse social and environmental benefits of rivers. These strategies can be implemented at scales ranging from the individual project (environmental flows, fish passage and other site-level mitigation) to hydropower cascades to river basins and regional electrical power systems. While we review evidence that project-level management and mitigation can reduce environmental and social costs, we posit that the most effective scale for finding balanced solutions occurs at the scale of power systems. We further hypothesize that the pursuit of solutions at the system scale can also provide benefits for investors, developers and governments; evidence of benefits to these actors will be necessary for achieving broad uptake of the approaches described in this paper. We test this hypothesis through cases from Chile and Uganda that demonstrate the potential for system-scale power planning to allow countries to meet low-carbon energy targets with power systems that avoid damming high priority rivers (e.g., those that would cause conflicts with other social and environmental benefits) for a similar system cost as status quo approaches. We also show that, through reduction of risk and potential conflict, strategic planning of hydropower site selection can improve financial performance for investors and developers, with a case study from Colombia.

Opperman, Jeffrey J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

2022 System Optimization Awardee: XFlow Energy Company

Vertical-axis wind turbines offer several cost-saving advantages over traditional horizontal-axis wind turbines, including lower blade manufacturing costs and a simpler mechanical design. Unfortunately, until now, vertical configurations have not been able to match the power production and durability of more conventional horizontal-axis models. XFlow Energy Company (XFlow Energy) plans to improve the design and reduce the production costs of its 25-kilowatt (kW) vertical-axis wind turbine, delivering a levelized cost of energy that is competitive with that of U.S. retail electricity generated by coal-fired power plants. XFlow Energy's efficient turbine also is designed to maximize power production and longevity. Two previous Competitiveness Improvement Project (CIP) awards funded XFlow Energy's development of a 10-meter vertical-axis turbine prototype.

CIP↗

DOE OSTI2024

Application Guide for the Cyber-Resilient Design Framework for Hybrid Systems

As the energy landscape evolves, hybrid power plants—integrating multiple renewable energy sources (e.g., solar, wind, and battery storage) with the bulk power electric system—play a crucial role in meeting growing energy demands. However, with a hybrid power plant’s increased number of components, complex network connectivity and digitization of controls, these systems face growing cybersecurity risks. To help mitigate these risks, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) presents this application guide specifically designed for operators and systems engineers to evaluate the cybersecurity resilience of their hybrid power plant’s design.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2021

Thermal Systems Modeling of Chemical Integrated Power Source (CHIPS) to Survive Lunar Night Environments

This paper presents the results of the systems level thermal modeling for a conceptual Chemical Heat Integrated Power Source (CHIPS). This proposed system offers a combined thermal and electrical power source to support survival of spacecraft operating in extreme low temperature lunar environments, without the use of radioisotope-based sources. A conceptual design study has been completed for this system, that uses heat generated by an exothermic chemical reaction in place of radioisotope or electrical heat sources. The goal of the study was to evaluate the feasibility of such as system through thermodynamic and chemical analysis and thermal modeling, and to identify technology gaps to inform a technology development and maturation plan. The specific technical objectives focused on delivery of 90-100 Wth thermal power and 30-40 We electrical power for 336 hours to a representative Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) lander, to support lunar surface survival and limited operations through a lunar night. The total system mass was targeted at ≤50 kg. A highly exothermic chemical reaction system is used to generate on-board electrical power for spacecraft systems, and thermal power to maintain critical spacecraft/lander systems within their allowable flight temperature (AFTs). Based on the very high energy content of the chemical reaction system, a much higher amount of heat per unit mass can be delivered to the spacecraft, relative to a rechargeable lithium-ion battery and electrical heater(s). Since radioisotope heaters or generators are not used, the system will be orders of magnitude lower in cost than a radioisotope heating/power unit, without the attendant regulatory complexities. As part of the CHIPS concept, a fraction of the thermal power generated is converted to electrical power via an appropriate thermal-to-electric converter technology (such as a free piston Stirling converter or a thermoelectric generator module), to provide power to critical loads. This approach is ideally suited to support operation of commercial landers (e.g., via the CLPS program). In most cases, these landers are only designed to operate during a portion of the lunar day, with no provision for survival through the lunar night. By supporting lunar night survival, a mission can be extended through the lunar night and at least into another lunar day, thus turning a nominal eight-day mission into a 36-day mission. Therefore, the current system demonstration will focus on scalability to support at least 336 hours (one lunar night) of continuous thermal and electrical power generation. Although initially targeted to support lunar equatorial landings, the technology is extensible to missions at the lunar poles, other extreme environments in the Solar System or even air-independent applications on Earth (e.g., ocean exploration).

West, William↗

DOE OSTI2023

Joint Resource Modeling and Assessment for Hybrid Distributed Solar and Wind Systems

The inherent variability and uncertainty in distributed energy resources can presents myriad challenges to the planning and operations of power systems. These risks are poised to become larger as the penetration of renewable energy sources rises in the power generation mix. Hybrid solar-wind energy systems are able to mitigate some of these risks by their complementary resource availability. Surface solar and wind fields are coupled and correlated in both space and time. Appropriately estimating the hybrid solar wind energy system requires simulating the spatio-temporal structure of these fields that can be produced for each time horizon. We introduce a novel joint spatio-temporal stochastic differential equation (SPDE) approach that captures the spatio-temporal dynamics of solar and wind fields and their joint dependency over a domain for each time step. In the case study on Colorado, we consider nonstationary three-level hierarchical spatio temporal models for both hourly solar irradiance data and wind speed data in Colorado. Dependence between the solar irradiance data and wind speed data is captured by a shared spatio-temporal random effect. Our approach performs well in terms of the prediction score criterion.

joint modeling↗

DOE OSTI2024

2023 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

This report, originally published in December 2023, has been revised in January 2024. There were three changes in the revision. First, Anthony Lopez was added as a contributing author, as he had been erroneously omitted in the original publication. Second, in appendix section A.1 the cost of upgrading a hydrogen combustion turbine from a natural gas turbine was erroneously reported as 20% when it should have been 33%. Lastly, appendix Figure A-8 was erroneously a duplication of the same figure from the Standard Scenarios 2022, it has now been updated to reflect this year’s data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar thermal plant impact analysis and requirements definition

Progress on a continuing study comprising of ten tasks directed at defining impact and requirements for solar thermal power systems (SPS), 1 to 10 MWe each in capacity, installed during 1985 through year 2000 in a utility or a nonutility load in the United States is summarized. The point focus distributed receiver (PFDR) solar power systems are emphasized. Tasks 1 through 4, completed to date, include the development of a comprehensive data base on SPS configurations, their performance, cost, availability, and potential applications; user loads, regional characteristics, and an analytic methodology that incorporates the generally accepted utility financial planning methods and several unique modifications to treat the significant and specific characteristics of solar power systems deployed in either central or distributed power generation modes, are discussed.

Gupta, Y. P.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Airborne Optical Communications Demonstrator Design And Preflight Test Results

A second generation optical communications demonstrator (OCD-2) intended for airborne applications like air-to-ground and air-to-air optical links is under development at JPL. This development provides the capability for unidirectional high data rate (2.5-Gbps) transmission at 1550-nm, with the ability to receive an 810-nm beacon to aid acquisition pointing and tracking. The transmitted beam width is nominally 200-(micro)rad. A 3x3 degree coarse field-of-view (FOV) acquisition sensor with a much smaller ~3-mrad FOV tracking sensor is incorporated. The OCD-2 optical head will be integrated to a high performance gimbal turret assembly capable of providing pointing stability of 5- microradians from an airborne platform. Other parts of OCD-2 include a cable harness, connecting the optical head in the gimbal turret assembly to a rugged electronics box. The electronics box will house: command and control processors, laser transmitter, data-generation-electronics, power conversion/distribution hardware and state-of-health monitors. The entire assembly will be integrated and laboratory tested prior to a planned flight demonstrations.

optical communications↗

DOE OSTI2024

U.S. Virgin Islands: 2023 Energy Baseline Report

This report summarizes the currently available data on U.S. Virgin Islands' energy sector as of December, 2023. It describes primary energy consumption, end uses, energy production, relevant policies, and key challenges, including details on the power generation and transportation sectors. The report serves as a baseline of understanding to assess energy needs and priorities on the island.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2021

Thermal Systems Modeling of Chemical Heat Integrated Power Source (CHIPS) to Survive Lunar Night Environments

This paper presents the results of the systems level thermal modeling for a conceptual Chemical Heat Integrated Power Source (CHIPS). This proposed system offers a combined thermal and electrical power source to support survival of spacecraft operating in extreme low temperature lunar environments, without the use of radioisotope-based sources. A conceptual design study has been completed for this system, that uses heat generated by an exothermic chemical reaction in place of radioisotope or electrical heat sources. The goal of the study was to evaluate the feasibility of such a system through thermodynamic and chemical analysis and thermal modeling, and to identify technology gaps to inform a technology development and maturation plan. The specific technical objectives focused on delivery of 90 to 100 Wth thermal power and 30 to 40 We electrical power for 336 hours to a representative Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) lander, to support lunar surface survival and limited operations through a lunar night. The total system mass was targeted at ≤50 kg. A highly exothermic chemical reaction system is used to generate on-board electrical power for spacecraft systems, and thermal power to maintain critical spacecraft/lander systems within their allowable flight temperature (AFTs). Based on the very high energy content of the chemical reaction system, a much higher amount of heat per unit mass can be delivered to the spacecraft, relative to a rechargeable lithium-ion battery and electrical heater(s). Since radioisotope heaters or generators are not used, the system will be orders of magnitude lower in cost than a radioisotope heating/power unit, without the attendant regulatory complexities. As part of the CHIPS concept, a fraction of the thermal power generated is converted to electrical power via an appropriate thermal-to-electric converter technology (such as a free piston Stirling converter or a thermoelectric generator module), to provide power to critical loads. This approach is ideally suited to support operation of commercial landers (e.g., via the CLPS program). In most cases, these landers are only designed to operate during a portion of the lunar day, with no provision for survival through the lunar night. By supporting lunar night survival, a mission can be extended through the lunar night and at least into another lunar day, thus turning a nominal eight-day mission into a 36-day mission. Therefore, the current system demonstration will focus on scalability to support at least 336 hours (one lunar night) of continuous thermal and electrical power generation. Although initially targeted to support lunar equatorial landings, the technology is extensible to missions at the lunar poles, other extreme environments in the Solar System or even air-independent applications on Earth (e.g., ocean exploration).

West, William↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Framework for Assessing Economic and Environmental Trade-offs of Internalized Emission Costs in ERCOT Grid Planning

The power grid is on the cusp of a massive transition driven by three major areas: 1) the growth in demand for electricity, 2) efforts to decarbonize the United States economy, and 3) a desire to mitigate social disparities from the impact of electricity generation on local populations. However, most studies of the electricity sector do not include equity impacts in their models. This study seeks to do so by developing a comprehensive and generalizable model tailored to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, designed to incorporate the equity impacts of electricity generation in a decarbonized and resilient framework. To integrate equity into our research, we incorporate environmental externalities into our capacity expansion model of ERCOT. Specifically, we factor in intermediate-level local marginal damages of precursor pollutants (NH3, NOx, primary PM2.5, SO2, and VOC) and global pollutant CO2 into the cost of generating electricity. We do this by taking into account county population, county ambient pollution concentration, and generator emission rates. Leveraging open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX we construct a county-level model to account for these costs. We integrate these marginal damages into the variable operations and maintenance costs of generators, for both existing and potential future builds. This study’s findings suggest that the value of a dynamic social cost of carbon (SSC) will cover criteria pollutant marginal damages within the ERCOT grid and solar and wind is expected to increase out to 2035. Key metrics evaluated within this research include fuel mix distribution across technologies, transmission and grid infrastructure costs, CO2 emissions, local pollutants marginal damages, and the variation in generation capacity built by the model. These results and framework can be used to support grid decisions that explicitly include distributional and procedural equity within a decarbonized and sustainable grid framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Coal-dependent Communities in Transition: Identifying Best Practices to Ensure Equitable Outcomes

The U.S. coal industry is experiencing a sharp increase in the numbers of retired and/or decommissioned coal-fired power plants across the U.S. In the years between 2010-2019, around 102 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired generating capacity has been announced to be decommissioned, representing more than 546 coal-fired power plant units, and an additional 17 GW is planned to be decommissioned by 2025. This change in the energy production landscape presents an impact on the social, environmental, and economic prospects of coal-dependent communities. This report examined the role of communities in the coal power plant decommissioning process and provided community-identified best practices to ensure an equitable process. The experiences of four coal-dependent communities—Wise County, VA, Muskegon, MI, Anderson County, TN, and Becker, MN—are presented as case studies to understand the impacts of the decommissioning process, and associated best practices, from the communities’ perspective. The report results highlight the need to recognize that the decommissioning decision-making process must be community-based to be equitable. Each community’s input is key to the transition away from coal power because there is no one-size-fits-all development plan. In other words, each community’s trajectory through the decommissioning process—from the retirement decision-making stage to the final site redevelopment phase—is unique because each community has distinct needs and wants from the energy transition. What is best for one community may not be suited for another. Ultimately, the framework for site development and community revitalization post-decommissioning cannot be universal because each community’s profile—from a social, cultural, and economic perspective—is different. Community impacts of power plant decommissioning are not limited to job and revenue losses. Communities are likely to be impacted culturally, socially, environmentally, and have long-term health-based impacts that should be acknowledged and addressed in post-retirement plans. Commonly identified decommissioning best practices include: Early and continued engagement throughout, with a number of mediums for communication and feedback (e.g., in-person sessions, virtual meetings, written comment opportunities); Early planning of post-decommissioning projects to replace lost jobs, revenue, and economic activity; Recognition (and mitigation, if possible) of social impacts on the community due to plant closure; Transparency throughout the process, with trusted information being provided about the decommissioning process and timeline; potential impacts on the workforce, economy, and environment; and the feasibility of alternative site uses; Identification of funding sources, technical experts, and/or strategic partnerships to support decommissioning and the affected communities upfront; and, Acknowledgment of communities as stakeholders who have a role in the conversation and right to determine their futures. Three key areas for assisting coal-dependent communities affected by the energy transition: Technical assistance: assessment of site feasibility for alternative uses or to repower with new technologies; Cross-partnership engagement and collaboration: facilitate knowledge-sharing of “lessons learned” about the decommissioning process between communities and provide guidance for decision-making processes; and, Financial assistance: access to grant and/or loan programs to assist with redevelopment survey, bolster community economic security through job creation, and cover environmental clean-up costs. Technical assistance, cross-partnership engagement, and financial aid can be mobilized to help communities throughout various stages of the decommissioning process, including the retirement decision, the site reclamation phase, and eventual revitalization of the site and surrounding community.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS2000

Dynamic Capability of an Operating Stirling Convertor

The NASA John H. Glenn Research Center and the US Department of Energy are currently developing a Stirling convertor for use as an advanced spacecraft power system for future NASA deep-space missions. NASA Headquarters has recently identified the Stirling technology generator for potential use as the spacecraft power system for two of NASA's new missions, the Europa Orbiter and the Solar Probe missions (planned for launch in 2006 and 2007 respectively). As part of the development of this power system, a Stirling Technology Demonstration Convertor was vibration tested at NASA John H. Glenn Research Center to verify its survivability and capability of withstanding the harsh dynamic environment typically seen by the spacecraft when it is launched by an expendable launch vehicle. The Technology Demonstration Convertor was fully operational (producing power) during the random vibration testing. The output power of the convertor and other convertor performance indicators were measured during the testing, and these results are discussed in this paper. Numerous accelerometers and force gauges also were used to provide information on the dynamic characteristics of the Technology Demonstration Convertor and as an indication of any possible damage due to the vibration. These measurements will also be discussed in this paper. The vibration testing of the Stirling Technology Demonstration Convertor was extremely successful. The Technology Demonstration Convertor survived all its vibration testing with no structural damage or functional performance degradation. As a result of this testing, the Stirling convertor's capability to withstand vibration has been demonstrated, enabling its usage in future spacecraft power systems.

Goodnight, Thomas W.↗