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DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaporated CdSe for Efficient Polycrystalline CdSeTe Thin-Film Solar Cells

Recent progress has shown that alloying cadmium telluride (CdTe) with cadmium selenide (CdSe) to create a CdSexTe1-x (CdSeTe) gradient region can significantly boost the performance of polycrystalline CdSeTe thin-film solar cells. However, improper CdSeTe alloying might introduce problematic band alignment and deleterious voids at the front interface, limiting the benefit maximization of this technique. Here, we show that the CdSe layers deposited by thermal evaporation result in CdSeTe cells with a higher performance than the sputtered CdSe. This is because evaporated CdSe can avoid the formation of voids at the front interface, producing improved front junction quality with suppressed front junction nonradiative recombination. The champion cell using evaporated CdSe demonstrated a power conversion efficiency (PCE) of 19.7%, much higher than 18.1% in the cell using sputtered CdSe.

cadmium selenide↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty quantification for Bayesian active learning in rupture life prediction of ferritic steels

Abstract Three probabilistic methodologies are developed for predicting the long-term creep rupture life of 9–12 wt%Cr ferritic-martensitic steels using their chemical and processing parameters. The framework developed in this research strives to simultaneously make efficient inference along with associated risk, i.e., the uncertainty of estimation. The study highlights the limitations of applying probabilistic machine learning to model creep life and provides suggestions as to how this might be alleviated to make an efficient and accurate model with the evaluation of epistemic uncertainty of each prediction. Based on extensive experimentation, Gaussian Process Regression yielded more accurate inference ( $$Pearson\;correlation\;coefficent> 0.95$$ P e a r s o n c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c e n t > 0.95 for the holdout test set) in addition to meaningful uncertainty estimate (i.e., coverage ranges from 94 to 98% for the test set) as compared to quantile regression and natural gradient boosting algorithm. Furthermore, the possibility of an active learning framework to iteratively explore the material space intelligently was demonstrated by simulating the experimental data collection process. This framework can be subsequently deployed to improve model performance or to explore new alloy domains with minimal experimental effort.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Viability and Financial Evaluation of Agrivoltaic Systems in Concord Grape Vineyards

Agrivoltaic systems, combining agriculture and solar photovoltaics (PV), present a forward- looking solution to global challenges in food security and the energy crisis. It can actualize co- located power generation and crop production, effectively mitigating land use conflicts between the solar industry and agriculture [1]. Presently, agrivoltaic research primarily focuses on conventional farmland. To promote the development of agrivoltaics, it’s essential to explore and study diverse application scenarios. Concord grape vineyards in New York consistently experience financial losses, prompting growers to seek additional revenue streams to preserve Concord grape industries [2]. This study presents the pioneering proposal for integrating solar PV into Concord vineyards. Through viability and financial assessment, this agrivoltaic system demonstrates the potential to alleviate grower losses and boost solar developers’ income, establishing a mutually beneficial scenario. Furthermore, it provides a conceptual approach for other vineyards facing similar challenges to mitigate losses and sustain local grape culture.

Williams, Henry J↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Methodology for Simulating Supercritical CO2 Heat Transfer Experiments Using Machine Learning Models

To support the growth of supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power cycles in the energy industry, this study seeks to train a machine learning model to mirror experimental data to predict new heat transfer data. To do this experimental data was amassed, one preliminary set comprised of 16 test results, and an expanded version comprised of 38 test results. With the goal of predicting experimental apparatus temperatures and pressures, several iterations of models were tested investigating the impact of model hyper-parameters, data inclusion, and data pre-processing on model performance. A total of 15 variations cumulatively of Gaussian Process Regressors, Gradient Boosting Regressors, and Multi-Layer Perceptrons were trained and validated on the preliminary set, and the best algorithm of each class was re-trained on the expanded set. These were compared based on test/train R^2 , test/train mean absolute error (MAE), and validation MAE, to identify the successfulness of these models. It was shown temperatures could be predicted within just a few degrees, showing the potential of this approach. Future research has been identified with approaches to improve pressure and temperature predictions going forward.

Grabowski, Owen↗

DOE OSTI2024

PV Generation and Load Forecasting for Adjuntas PR Community Microgrids

Existing frameworks to forecast time-series photovoltaic (PV) output power and consumer load for microgrid operations and controls assume a near-continuous availability of real-time input features from the field assets such as PV inverters, energy meters, and weather station. These incoming data points are used to periodically retrain models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window, be it one hour-ahead, one-day ahead, or one-week ahead. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. Hence, there is a need for programs that assume no availability of real-time microgrid asset data and still make reliable forecasts that can be used for decision-making. Such programs would be apt to function in extreme weather events such as hurricanes and would use lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance and ambient temperature, then compute PV power from those forecasts, as well as independently forecast consumer load. The codebase performs forecasting for the scenario of when the microgrid does not have a reliable access to forecasts or real-time observations of solar irradiance (I) and ambient temperature (AT) and load (Load) to be able to adequately forecast, in real-time, the PV power production or a business' load. In this case, using historical values of PV power and load, a univariate forecasting of generation and consumption are respectively made. The use-case in particular has two sub-scenarios: one, a normal 7-day ahead forecast where the unavailability of real-time data is assumed due to infrastructure issues such as loss of communication or sensor maintenance or service downtimes. Whereas a hurricane-caused unavailability of real-time data requires a second model trained specifically on historical hurricane days to be able to capture the extreme day behavior of generation in particular, and load if applicable. A gradient boosted regression tree comprises an ensemble of additive models that map between the input of historical values (be it irradiance, temperature, or load) and their corresponding output forecasts of a given horizon such that the individual learner predictions are summed up over the total number of such learners in the ensemble to produce an aggregate forecast. A weighting mechanism is applied to the training data in each iteration, where actual and forecast values are compared to penalize incorrect forecasts by increasing the weight and reducing it to reward correct forecasts. The code's benefits are that it: (a) accounts for a contingency where communication loss renders newly measured real-time data unavailable for model tuning and snapshot updates; (b) presents blind forecasting that recursively determines the next time-step value in a horizon using the forecast of the same attribute from a prior step; and (c) employs lightweight models that, once trained, can reliably generalize for different horizons, which make them suitable for enhancing the resilience of field microgrids prone to extreme events that encounter disruptions to data availability.

Sundararajan, Aditya [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2020

The hidden value of large-rotor, tall-tower wind turbines in the United States

The significant upscaling of wind turbine size (nameplate capacity, rotor diameter, and tower height) has, to date, been driven primarily by a goal of minimizing the levelized cost of energy. But with wind’s levelized cost of energy now comparable with that of other generating resources, other design considerations besides cost-minimization have grown in importance—particularly as wind’s increasing market penetration begins to impose challenges on the electric grid. We find that taller towers and larger rotors (relative to nameplate capacity) can enhance the value of wind energy to the electricity system and provide other “hidden” benefits. Specifically, in regions where wind penetration has reached around 20%, we find a boost in wholesale market value of US$2–US$3/MWh. This is augmented by transmission, balancing, and financing benefits that sum to roughly US$2/MWh. The aggregate potential value enhancement of US$4–US$5/MWh is comparable with a 10%–15% reduction in levelized costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Analysis of Temperature-Strain Relationships for Structural Health Monitoring of Pipes: Self-powered wireless sensor system for health monitoring of liquid-sodium cooled fast reactors

This report presents machine learning (ML) analysis of temperature-strain relationships for structural health monitoring of nuclear reactor stainless steel (SS) pipes with the strain gauge sensor directly printed on the pipe with a 3D conformal aerosol jet printer. We investigate correlations for two sensor pairs installed on the same SS304 pipe: commercial K-type thermocouple with a printed gold strain gauge (TC3-SG3), and commercial K-type thermocouple with commercial Kyowa strain gauge (TC0-SG0). The temperature ranges for the sensor pairs TC0-SG0 and TC3-SG3 are 20.00°C to 266.37°C and 39.95°C to 219.28°C respectively. ML algorithms in this study include Linear Regression (baseline method), Ridge Regression, Lasso Regression, and Gradient Boosting. Performance evaluation metrics include Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), R 2 Score, and Explained Variance. Using advanced feature engineering techniques, we extracted 27 temperature-based features and 30 strategic inclusion features. The best performance was obtained with the Gradient Boosting method, which achieves prediction accuracy of R 2 = 0.9999 and RMSE = 7.69 μStrain for TC0-SG0, and R 2 = 0.9998 and RMSE = 18.03 μStrain for TC3-SG3. While the temperature-strain correlations are weaker for the gauge directly printed on the pipe than for the commercial strain gauge, deployment-ready performance exceeding industry standards is achieved for both sensor pairs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Molecular Fe-N 4 Moieties Coupled with Atomic Co-N 4 Sites Toward Improved Oxygen Reduction Performance

Research on high-efficiency and cost-efficient catalysts for oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) is still a vital but challenging issue for commercializing metal–air batteries. Herein, a single-molecule/atom hybrid catalyst is developed to boost the ORR, in which iron phthalocyanine molecules containing molecular Fe-N 4 moieties couple with atomic Co-N 4 sites on the surface of polyhedral carbon. Density functional theory calculations reveal that face-to-face laminated construction of Fe-N 4 and Co-N 4 in the hybrid catalyst can effectively modulate the electronic structure of active iron atoms and reduce the energy barrier of the rate-determining step for ORR. As a result, this hybrid catalyst demonstrates excellent ORR performance, featuring a half-wave potential of 0.904 V, a peak power density of 238.3 mW cm -2 for zinc–air battery, and outstanding electrocatalytic stability. Here, this work offers a distinctive and robust molecular/atomic engineering approach to creating efficient electrocatalysts, advancing the fields of metal–air batteries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optical and Magneto-Optical Properties of Donor-Bound Excitons in Vacancy-Engineered Colloidal Nanocrystals

Controlled insertion of electronic states within the band gap of semiconductor nanocrystals (NCs) is a powerful tool for tuning their physical properties. One compelling example is II–VI NCs incorporating heterovalent coinage metals in which hole capture produces acceptor-bound excitons. To date, the opposite donor-bound exciton scheme has not been realized because of the unavailability of suitable donor dopants. Here, we produce a model system for donor-bound excitons in CdSeS NCs engineered with sulfur vacancies (V S ) that introduce a donor state below the conduction band (CB), resulting in long-lived intragap luminescence. V S -localized electrons are almost unaffected by trapping, and suppression of thermal quenching boosts the emission efficiency to 85%. Magneto-optical measurements indicate that the V S are not magnetically coupled to the NC bands and that the polarization properties are determined by the spin of the valence-band photohole, whose spin flip is massively slowed down due to suppressed exchange interaction with the donor-localized electron.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stability enhancement module for grid-following converters: Hardware implementation and validation

Low-frequency oscillations limit power delivery of voltage-source converter interfaced resources, for example, wind and solar, operating in grid-following control mode. Our prior research identified the instability mechanism as the coupling between real power and voltage at point of common coupling. In turn, a stability enhancement control was proposed to weaken the coupling by introducing a simple voltage-based feedback loop. The stability enhancement control has been validated via electromagnetic transient simulation testbeds. The objectives of this paper are (a) to provide a more insightful explanation of the enhancement module by examining the impedance of the grid-following converter and (b) to verify the performance of the stability module using a hardware testbed. The theoretic examination demonstrates that stability enhancement module effectively reduces the negative resistance effect of $Z_{qq}$ and thus boosts stability. The experimental research leads to a hardware testbed of a grid-following converter with the ability of demonstrating low-frequency oscillations. Finally, the experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed stability enhancement control and the readiness of commercial realization of the stability enhancement unit.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electric Drive Technologies Research: Bottom-Up Soft Magnetic Composites (FY2022 Annual Progress Report)

In order to meet 2025 goals for enhanced peak power (100 kW), specific power (50 kW/L), and reduced cost (3.3 $\$$/kW) in a motor that can operate at ≥ 20,000 rpm, improved soft magnetic materials must be developed. Better performing soft magnetic materials will also enable rare earth free electric motors. In fact, replacement of permanent magnets with soft magnetic materials was highlighted in the Electrical and Electronics Technical Team (EETT) Roadmap as a R&D pathway for meeting 2025 targets. Eddy current losses in conventional soft magnetic materials, such as silicon steel, begin to significantly impact motor efficiency as rotational speed increases. Soft magnetic composites (SMCs), which combine magnetic particles with an insulating matrix to boost electrical resistivity (ρ) and decrease eddy current losses, even at higher operating frequencies (or rotational speeds), are an attractive solution. Today, SMCs are being fabricated with values of ρ ranging between 10 -3 to 10 -1 μohm∙m, which is significantly higher than 3% silicon steel (~0.05 μohm∙m). The isotropic nature of SMCs is ideally suited for motors with 3D flux paths, such as axial flux motors. Additionally, the manufacturing cost of SMCs is low and they are highly amenable to advanced manufacturing and net-shaping into complex geometries, which further reduces manufacturing costs. There is still significant room for advancement in SMCs, and therefore additional improvements in electrical machine performance. For example, despite the inclusion of a non-magnetic insulating material, the electrical resistivities of SMCs are still far below that of soft ferrites (10 – 10 8 μohm∙m).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Plasma confinement state classification via FPP relevant microwave diagnostics

We present a parsimonious and robust machine learning approach for identifying plasma confinement states in fusion power plants (FPPs) where reliable identification of the low-confinement and high-confinement regimes is critical for safe and efficient operation. Unlike research-oriented devices, FPPs must operate with a severely constrained set of diagnostics. To address this challenge, we demonstrate that a minimalist model, using only electron cyclotron emission (ECE) signals, can achieve accurate and reliable state classification. ECE provides electron temperature profiles without the engineering or survivability issues of in-vessel probes, making it a primary candidate for FPP-relevant diagnostics. Our framework employs ECE as input, extracts features using radial basis functions, and applies a gradient boosting classifier, achieving a test accuracy of 96% (correct predictions). Robustness analysis and feature importance analyzes confirm the approach’s reliability. These results demonstrate that state-of-the-art performance is attainable from a restricted diagnostic set, paving the way for minimalist yet resilient plasma control architectures for FPPs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bottom-Up Soft Magnetic Composites

In order to meet 2025 goals for enhanced peak power (100 kW), specific power (50 kW/L), and reduced cost (3.3 $/kW) in a motor that can operate at ≥ 20,000 rpm, improved soft magnetic materials must be developed. Better performing soft magnetic materials will also enable electric motors without rare earth elements. In fact, replacement of permanent magnets with soft magnetic materials was highlighted in the Electrical and Electronics Technical Team (EETT) Roadmap as a R&D pathway for meeting 2025 targets. Eddy current losses in conventional soft magnetic materials, such as silicon steel, begin to significantly impact motor efficiency as rotational speed is increased. Soft magnetic composites (SMCs), which combine magnetic particles with an insulating matrix to boost electrical resistivity (ρ) and decrease eddy current losses, even at higher operating frequencies (or rotational speeds), are an attractive solution. Today, SMCs are being fabricated with values of ρ ranging between 10 -3 to 10 -1 μohm∙m, which is significantly higher than 3% silicon steel (~0.5 μohm∙m). The isotropic nature of SMCs is ideally suited for motors with 3D flux paths, such as axial flux motors. Additionally, the manufacturing cost of SMCs is low and they are highly amenable to advanced manufacturing and net-shaping into complex geometries, which further reduces manufacturing costs. There is still significant room for advancement in SMCs, and therefore additional improvements in electrical machine performance. For example, despite the inclusion of a non-magnetic insulating material, the electrical resistivities of SMCs are still far below that of soft ferrites (10 – 10 8 μohm∙m).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

In‐Silico Device Performance Prediction of Cosensitizer Dye Pairs for Dye‐Sensitized Solar Cells

Abstract Endeavors in the field of dye‐sensitized solar cells (DSCs) have shown great promise when adopting a data‐driven approach to materials discovery, such as successful molecular‐scale predictions of light‐harvesting chromophores. However, predictions of DSC dyes would become much more sophisticated if a molecular‐to‐macroscopic DSC device prediction methodology existed. Thereby, a fully computational pipeline is presented that predicts device‐performance parameters of DSCs which contain varying dye combinations. Optimal pairing of complementary dyes is identified via a data‐driven workflow that affords cosensitized DSCs with maximum power‐conversion efficiencies. Six high‐performing DSC dyes are paired with partner dyes that are screened from a database of 8488 compounds using sequential heuristic filters. Existing models that predict short‐circuit‐current density ( J SC ) and open‐circuit voltage ( V OC ) parameters are adapted to predict singly sensitized and cosensitized DSC performance. The predictions for J sc values of singly sensitized devices match experimental literature values with comparable accuracy to more computationally costly methods. Five out of six dye pairings are predicted to have greater J SC values when cosensitized compared to their corresponding singly sensitized devices, including two pairs that show strong J sc boosts of +13% and +12% when cosensitized. Thus, the prospect of an entirely in‐silico prediction pipeline for DSC performance that can be used to realize the fully automated design of optimized cosensitized DSCs is demonstrated.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The pursuit of net-positive sustainability for industrial decarbonization with hybrid energy systems

We report signatories of the Paris Agreement are set to miss their climate targets. The net-zero pledges announced to date across many countries and private industries are insufficient to achieve carbon neutrality, which requires implementation of far-reaching and significantly scaled-up climate-positive actions. All technology options that pertain to deep decarbonization and carbon removal must be part of the mitigation portfolio. Transformative action plans must be established in which every individual/organization around the globe is an actor of changes in relation to net-zero goals. Such plans must involve governmental policy support but also encourage voluntary efforts to boost innovations, investments, initiatives, and behavioral changes. Recognition of these efforts is made quantifiable with the concepts of carbon handprint and net positivity. This paper presents a carbon handprint perspective on characterizing the environmental benefits of hybrid energy systems (HESs)—a widely applicable solution to cleaner production leveraging the capabilities of a portfolio of low-carbon energy sources—that provide heat and electricity to industrial processes. First, the carbon handprint and net positivity concepts and their calculation approach are introduced. The state of the art of HES-enabled industrial cogeneration is then surveyed, and the greenhouse gas emission intensities of different energy sources that power HESs are compared. Next, drawing on a case study about a US chemical facility's voluntary initiative to explore replacing its fossil fuel–based cogeneration infrastructure with a clean energy–generated HES, several technically viable scenarios are evaluated—especially those with small modular nuclear reactors—to illustrate how the positive-thinking handprint approach helps encourage and inform the search for widespread influence pathways in pursuit of net-positive sustainability. Finally, current knowledge gaps in the case study are identified, and opportunities to scale up the proposed handprint-based analysis are outlined with consideration of an expanded role of HESs in fulfilling climate objectives.It is envisioned that like-minded decision makers in the industry sector and beyond will adopt this perspective and act synergistically to enhance their environmental stewardship through voluntary actions and make greater contributions to the planet's climate future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Decision Support System to Compile Environmental Mitigations from Hydropower Licensing Documents

The process of deciphering, extracting, and compiling information from texts dense with domain-specific terminology and technical jargon is a challenging endeavor. It demands considerable expertise and deep knowledge in the respective field, resulting in a labor-intensive process when executed by humans. Furthermore, the task of identifying multiple class labels in extensive texts presents a challenge due to intra- and inter-reader variability, making the process time-consuming and costly.We’re introducing a user-friendly graphical interface, fortified with a BERT model-powered decision support system. This advanced system aims to augment efficiency, curtail data collection time, and sustain high precision in data acquisition. It is instrumental in deciphering and synthesizing intricate texts teeming with a spectrum of expressions, even within similar mitigation categories. Such tasks traditionally demand substantial human effort and specialized knowledge in the domain.Our system is specifically engineered for the task of extracting environmental mitigation information to promote sustainable hydropower development from licenses issued by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). These license documents are comprehensive, each containing over 15,000 words and requiring the identification of 135 different class labels. We anticipate that our system will boost reading speed, improve the consistency of classification outputs among readers, and contribute to the development of a robust scientific database of environmental mitigations associated with the 2,000+ non-federal hydropower facilities licensed by FERC in the United States.

Yoon, Hong-Jun [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000254505878)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multifunctional Conjugated Ligand Engineering for Stable and Efficient Perovskite Solar Cells

Surface passivation is an effective way to boost the efficiency and stability of perovskite solar cells (PSCs). However, a key challenge faced by most of the passivation strategies is reducing the interface charge recombination without imposing energy barriers to charge extraction. Here, a novel multifunctional semiconducting organic ammonium cationic interface modifier inserted between the light-harvesting perovskite film and the hole-transporting layer is reported. It is shown that the conjugated cations can directly extract holes from perovskite efficiently, and simultaneously reduce interface non-radiative recombination. Together with improved energy level alignment and the stabilized interface in the device, a triple-cation mixed-halide medium-bandgap PSC with an excellent power conversion efficiency of 22.06% (improved from 19.94%) and suppressed ion migration and halide phase segregation, which lead to a long-term operational stability, is demonstrated. Finally, this strategy provides a new practical method of interface engineering in PSCs toward improved efficiency and stability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗