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At least 307 records · Page 17

Extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks in the context of the global circulation and hydrological cycle

Shortwave (SW) cloud feedback ($SW_{FB}$) is the primary driver of uncertainty in the effective climate sensitivity (ECS) predicted by global climate models (GCMs). ECS for several GCMs participating in the sixth assessment report exceed 5K, above the fifth assessment report ‘likely’ maximum (4.5K) due to extratropical $SW_{FB}$’s that are more positive than those simulated in the previous generation of GCMs. Here we show that across 57 GCMs Southern Ocean $SW_{FB}$ can be predicted from the sensitivity of column-integrated liquid water mass (LWP) to moisture convergence and to surface temperature. In this work, the response of LWP to moisture convergence and the response of albedo to LWP anti-correlate across GCMs. This is because GCMs that simulate a larger response of LWP to moisture convergence tend to have higher mean-state LWPs, which reduces the impact of additional LWP on albedo. Observational constraints suggest a modestly negative Southern Ocean $SW_{FB}$— inconsistent with extreme ECS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The AGORA High-resolution Galaxy Simulations Comparison Project. VIII. Disk Formation and Evolution of Simulated Milky Way Mass Galaxy Progenitors at 1 < z < 5

We investigate how differences in the stellar feedback produce disks with different morphologies in Milky Way–like progenitors over 1 ≤ z ≤ 5, using eight state-of-the-art cosmological hydrodynamics simulation codes in the AGORA project. In three of the participating codes, a distinct, rotation-dominated inner core emerges with a formation timescale of ≲300 Myr, largely driven by a major merger event, while two other codes exhibit similar signs of wet compaction—gaseous shrinkage into a compact starburst phase—at earlier epochs. The remaining three codes show only weak evidence of wet compaction. Consequently, we divide the simulated galaxies into two groups: those with strong compaction signatures and those with weaker ones. Galaxies in these two groups differ in size, stellar age gradients, and disk-to-total mass ratios. Specifically, codes with strong wet compaction build their outer disks in an inside-out fashion, leading to negative age gradients, whereas codes with weaker compaction feature flat or positive age gradients caused primarily by outward stellar migration. Although the stellar half-mass radii of these two groups diverge at z ∼ 3, the inclusion of dust extinction brings their sizes and shapes in mock observations closer to each other and to observed galaxies. We attribute the observed morphological differences primarily to variations in the stellar feedback implementations—such as delayed cooling timescales, and feedback strengths—that regulate both the onset and duration of compaction. Overall, our results suggest that disk assembly at high redshifts is highly sensitive to the details of the stellar feedback prescriptions in simulations.

Jung, Minyong [Seoul National Univ. (Korea, Republ↗

SCALE Modeling of the Fast Spectrum Heat Pipe Reactor

As part of the severe accident analysis collaboration with Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), SCALE models were developed for a fast-spectrum heat pipe reactor. These models were based on the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Design A concept, which is an alternative design to the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Special Purpose Reactor (SPR), also known as the Megapower reactor. The model contains 1,134 heat pipes, surrounded by hexagonal fuel elements, with a potassium working fluid; the fuel is UO 2 with 19.75 wt% 235 U enrichment. The model contains axial beryllium oxide (BeO) reflectors above and below the active fuel region along with a radial alumina reflector containing 12 B 4 C control drums. The center of the core is left unfueled to make room for two shutdown control rods, one annular and one solid. The active region of the core was discretized into twenty axial and five radial zones to analyze spatial variations in power and burnup. Infinite lattice unit cell sensitivity studies were used to perform verification between the SCALE and INL models. The eigenvalue results agreed well with the reported results to within roughly 50 percent mille (pcm). Full-core model verification was performed by analyzing system eigenvalues with differing configurations of control drum and shutdown rod positions. These full core results all had eigenvalue differences less than 310 pcm. Control drum and shutdown rod worths were also compared, with differences of 3.2% or less. Using the verified model, the isotopic inventory and decay heat, as well as temperature feedback coefficients, were calculated and provided to SNL as input to the MELCOR severe accident code to analyze potential releases from this class of reactor. The results of the MELCOR analysis are provided in a different report.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Application of NEAMS Codes to Capture MSR Phenomena

This report documents work completed in FY21 under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program’s Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) Application Drivers activity at Argonne. The common focus was on identifying the modeling and simulation functional requirements for designing, licensing, and operating MSRs and applying those capabilities already developed in NEAMS tools to example problems of interest. The four main parts of this report each focuses on a specific area of simulation physics as it relates to MSR phenomena: fuel evolution, chemistry, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and systems analysis. In terms of fuel evolution, which includes depletion, decay, on-line separations, and transmutation, the current state of computational capabilities for modeling this behavior in liquid-fueled molten salt reactor is discussed. Some of the functional requirements to accomplish the various applications of MSR fuel depletion modeling are highlighted, followed by a summary of recent approaches and code development activities. The chemistry functional requirements were discussed in the context of several applications of high importance for MSRs, such as corrosion, salt chemistry, and species transport. Each of these types of chemistry modeling have considerable impact on various aspects of reactor applications, including informing on reactor designs, improving operational efficiencies, analyzing safety and reactivity concerns, and estimating the mechanistic source term of the reactor. A brief overview is also provided on code development activities ongoing under NEAMS relevant to chemistry modeling of MSRs. In terms of CFD applications, the state-of-the-art spectral element code, Nek5000 was used to model the fluid dynamics within a full core of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR) concept designed as part of the Euratom EVOL project. This concept was selected as the challenge problem because of its similar features to several U.S. industry concepts. The goal was to model some of the fast MSR design challenges, including potential large internal re-circulations, the need of accurate tracking of delayed neutron precursors (DNP), and the lack of relevant thermal-hydraulics models/correlations, etc. Therefore, a series of CFD models were created for the MSFR core cavity using a k – τ model two-equation model for the turbulence. These first full core results demonstrated that any potential recirculation zones could be properly identified with the current NEAMS CFD capabilities. The development of these models will also set the stage for future testing of Nek5000’s functionalities to model other MSR thermal-fluid phenomena. Lastly, the validation of SAM against experimental data from the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment, which started in FY19, continues with the inclusion of modeling the reactivity insertion tests. This involved using SAM and its point kinetics model for flowing fuel salt to recreate the time dependent power changes and response after positive reactivity insertions at the 1, 5, and 8 MWt power levels. Through these exercises, several code modifications were suggested to the SAM development team and accommodated to enable closer agreement with solid technical and physical justifications. These include adding a moderator reactivity feedback coefficient as an available input and modifying the solution approach for the point kinetics model. Additional SAM development suggestions for flowing fuel MSRs include adding the capability to allow the moderator power change proportionally with the reactor power and enabling specification of the power and DNP distributions separately.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases

Black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on ASM remain elusive and largely inconsistent among previous studies, which is strongly dependent on different low-level thermal feedbacks over the Asian continent and the surrounding ocean. This study examines the response of ASM to BC forcing in comparison with the effect of doubled greenhouse gases (GHGs) by analyzing the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) simulations under an extreme high BC level (10 times modern global BC emissions or concentrations, labeled by BC $\times$ 10) from nine global climate models (GCMs). The results show that although BC and GHGs both enhance the ASM precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) (a 13.6 % increase for BC forcing and 12.1 % for GHGs from the nine-model ensemble, respectively), there exists a much larger uncertainty in changes in ASM P–E induced by BC than by GHGs. The summer P–E is increased by 7.7 % to 15.3 % due to these two forcings over three sub-regions including East Asian, South Asian, and western North Pacific monsoon regions. Further analysis of moisture budget reveals distinct mechanisms controlling the increases in ASM P–E induced by BC and GHGs. The change in ASM P–E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect due to the enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, whereas the GHG-induced change is dominated by the thermodynamic effect through increasing atmospheric water vapor. Radiative forcing of BC significantly increases the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region to enhance the upper-level meridional land-sea thermal gradient (MLOTG), resulting in a northward shift of the upper-level subtropical westerly jet and an enhancement of the low-level monsoon circulation; whereas radiative forcing of GHGs significantly increases the tropical upper-level temperature, which reduces the upper-level MLOTG and suppresses the low-level monsoonal circulation. Hence, our results indicate a different mechanism of BC climate effects under the extreme high BC level, that BC forcing significantly enhances the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region, determining ASM changes, instead of low-level thermal feedbacks as indicated by previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases

Black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on the ASM remain elusive and largely inconsistent among previous studies, which is strongly dependent on different low-level thermal feedbacks over the Asian continent and the surrounding ocean. This study examines the response of the ASM to BC forcing in comparison with the effect of doubled greenhouse gases (GHGs) by analyzing the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) simulations under an extremely high BC level (10 times modern global BC emissions or concentrations, labeled BC×10) from nine global climate models (GCMs). The results show that although BC and GHGs both enhance the ASM precipitation minus evaporation (P–E; a 13.6 % increase for BC forcing and 12.1 % for GHGs from the nine-model ensemble, respectively), there exists a much larger uncertainty in changes in ASM P–E induced by BC than by GHGs. The summer P–E is increased by 7.7 % to 15.3 % due to these two forcings over three subregions, including East Asian, South Asian and western North Pacific monsoon regions. Further analysis of moisture budget reveals distinct mechanisms controlling the increases in ASM P–E induced by BC and GHGs. The change in ASM P–E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect due to the enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, whereas the GHG-induced change is dominated by the thermodynamic effect through increasing atmospheric water vapor. Radiative forcing of BC significantly increases the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region to enhance the upper-level meridional land–sea thermal gradient (MLOTG), resulting in a northward shift of the upper-level subtropical westerly jet and an enhancement of the low-level monsoon circulation, whereas radiative forcing of GHGs significantly increases the tropical upper-level temperature, which reduces the upper-level MLOTG and suppresses the low-level monsoonal circulation. Hence, our results indicate a different mechanism of BC climate effects under the extremely high BC level: that BC forcing significantly enhances the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region, determining ASM changes, instead of low-level thermal feedbacks as indicated by previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Visual feedback and guided balance training in an immersive virtual reality environment for lower extremity rehabilitation

Balance training is essential for physical rehabilitation procedures, as it can improve functional mobility and enhance cognitive coordination. However, conventional balance training methods may have limitations in terms of motivation, real-time objective feedback, and personalization, which a virtual reality (VR) setup may provide a better alternative. In this work, we present an immersive VR training environment for lower extremity balance rehabilitation with real-time guidance and feedback. The VR training environment immerses the user in a 3D ice rink model where a virtual coach (agent) leads them through a series of balance poses, and the user controls a trainee avatar with their own movements. Here we developed two coaching styles: positive-reinforcement and autonomous-supportive, and two viewpoints of the trainee avatar: first-person and third-person. The proposed environment was evaluated in a user study with healthy, non-clinical participants (n = 16, 24.4 ± 5.7 years old, 9 females). Our results show that participants showed stronger performance in the positive-reinforcement style compared to the autonomous-supportive style. Additionally, in the third-person viewpoint, the participants exhibited more stability in the positive-reinforcement style compared to the autonomous-supportive style. For viewpoint, participants exhibited stronger performance in the first-person viewpoint compared to third-person in the autonomous-supportive style, while they were comparable in the positive-reinforcement style. We observed no significant effects on the foot height and number of mistakes. Furthermore, we report the analysis of user performance with balance training poses and subjective measures based on questionnaires to assess the user experience, usability, and task load. The proposed VR balance training could offer an interactive, adaptive, and engaging environment and open new potential research directions for lower extremity rehabilitation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Plant–soil feedback under drought: does history shape the future?

Plant–soil feedback (PSF) is widely recognised as a driver of plant community composition, but understanding of its response to drought remains in its infancy. Here, we provide a conceptual framework for the role of drought in PSF, considering plant traits, drought severity, and historical precipitation over ecological and evolutionary timescales. Comparing experimental studies where plants and microbes do or do not share a drought history (through co-sourcing or conditioning), we hypothesise that plants and microbes with a shared drought history experience more positive PSF under subsequent drought. To reflect real-world responses to drought, future studies need to explicitly include plant–microbial co-occurrence and potential co-adaptation and consider the precipitation history experienced by both plants and microbes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Resolving Low Cloud Feedbacks Globally With E3SM High‐Res MMF: Agreement With LES but Stronger Shortwave Effects

This study investigates low cloud feedback in a warmer climate using global simulations from the High-Resolution Multi-scale Modeling Framework (HR-MMF), which explicitly simulates small-scale eddies globally. Two 5-year simulations—one with present-day sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and a second with SSTs warmed uniformly by 4 K—reveal a positive global shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE = 0.3 W/m 2 /K), comparable to estimates from CMIP models. As the climate warms, significant reductions in low cloud cover occur over stratocumulus regions. This study is the first attempt to compare HR-MMF results with predictions from idealized large-eddy simulations from the CGILS intercomparison. Despite different underlying assumptions, we find qualitative agreement in SWCRE and inversion height changes between HR-MMF and CGILS predictions. This suggests reasonable credibility for the CGILS framework in predicting cloud responses under the out-of-sample conditions found in HR-MMF. However, the HR-MMF exhibits stronger SWCRE changes than predicted by CGILS. We explore potential causes for this discrepancy, examining variations in cloud-controlling factors (CCFs) and cloud conditions. Our results show a fairly homogeneous SWCRE response, with little systematic variation tied to the variations in CCFs. This reveals a dominant role for SST forcing in modulating SWCRE.

boundary-layer clouds↗

Dependence of the Ratio of Total to Visible Mass on Observable Properties of Sloan Digital Sky Survey MaNGA Galaxies

Abstract Using spectroscopic observations from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory Data Release 15, we study the relationships between the ratio of total to visible mass and various parameters characterizing the evolution and environment of the galaxies in this survey. Measuring the rotation curve with the relative velocities of the H α emission line across a galaxy’s surface, we estimate each galaxy’s total mass. We develop a statistical model to describe the observed distribution in the ratio of total to visible mass, from which we extract the most probable value of this mass ratio for a given sample of galaxies. We present the relationships between the ratio of total to visible mass and several characteristics describing galactic evolution, such as luminosity, gas-phase metallicity, distance to the nearest neighbor, and position on the color–magnitude diagram. We find that faint galaxies with low metallicities, typically in the blue cloud, have the highest ratios of total to visible mass. This mass ratio is significantly reduced when we include the H i mass in the total visible mass, implying that feedback mechanisms are not as strong in low-mass galaxies as previously thought. Those galaxies that exhibit the second-highest ratios of total to visible mass are the brightest with high metallicities, typically members of the red sequence or green valley. Active galactic nucleus activity is likely both the quenching mechanism and the feedback that drives the mass ratio higher in these massive galaxies. Finally, we introduce a parameterization that predicts a galaxy’s ratio of total to visible mass based only on its photometry and luminosity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An analysis of controlled detachment by seeding various impurity species in high performance scenarios on DIII-D and EAST

Experiments at DIII-D and EAST have demonstrated simultaneous high confinement, divertor detachment, and active control of detachment level, all of which are required for ITER. Comparing detachment control via T e and J sat , it appears that is the most straightforward sensor to use for accessing detachment onset, while J sat offers more precise control of degree of detachment. Based on these results, control using nitrogen seeding has so far shown the best ability to follow a target value with the low disruptivity and little to no degradation of performance when an Internal Transport Barrier (ITB) is present, but not all facilities allow its use. Neon seeding also can be paired with feedback control with low impact on core performance as long as there is no disruption, however shots with neon seeding commonly disrupted during these experiments. Argon is effective in EAST, but tends to degrade performance (by ≈ 10%β p ) when detachment is achieved. With ideal conditions and strike point position control, data from a single Langmuir probe are an acceptable input to the control algorithm, but this simple system is easily defeated by strike point displacement comparable to the T e or J sat scale lengths. The presence of an ITB seems to be critical to retaining core performance in detachment in these parameter ranges, as the pedestal pressure tends to decrease as a result of impurity seeding.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Optical current monitor

An optical current monitor for detecting a current traveling through conductive material. The optical current monitor comprises a light source for emitting light at an output level; a lens configured to receive the light; Faraday material positioned near the conductive material and configured to receive light that has passed through the lens, thereby producing rotated light; a polarizer configured to polarize the rotated light; a photodetector configured to receive the rotated light and output a signal as a function of the rotated light; and a feedback system. The feedback system is configured to receive the signal from the photodetector and modify the output level of the light source based on the signal so that the signal remains at a reference level when the current is not traveling through the conductive material.

Laughlin, Daric Gray↗

Effect of tectonic processes on biosphere–geosphere feedbacks across a convergent margin

The subsurface is among Earth’s largest biomes, but the extent to which microbial communities vary across tectonic plate boundaries or interact with subduction-scale geological processes remains unknown. Here we compare bacterial community composition with deep-subsurface geochemistry from 21 hot springs across the Costa Rican convergent margin. We find that cation and anion compositions of the springs reflect the dip angle and position of the underlying tectonic structure and also correlate with the bacterial community. Co-occurring microbial cliques related to cultured chemolithoautotrophs that use the reverse tricarboxylic acid cycle (rTCA) as well as abundances of metagenomic rTCA genes correlate with concentrations of slab-volatilized carbon. This, combined with carbon isotope evidence, suggests that fixation of slab-derived CO2 into biomass may support a chemolithoautotrophy-based subsurface ecosystem. We calculate that this forearc subsurface biosphere could sequester 1.4 × 10 9 to 1.4 × 10 10 mol of carbon per year, which would decrease estimates of the total carbon delivered to the mantle by 2 to 22%. Furthermore, based on the observed correlations, we suggest that distribution and composition of the subsurface bacterial community are probably affected by deep tectonic processes across the Costa Rican convergent margin and that, by sequestering carbon volatilized during subduction, these chemolithoautotrophic communities could in turn impact the geosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microreactor Automated Control System Test Bed Digital Architecture for Real-Time, Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation

This work describes progress made towards the development of a real-time hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) test bed for non-nuclear testing of microreactor control schemes and failure modes. Non-nuclear testing is a crucial step in developing robust control algorithms for managing microreactor dynamics. The creation of an HIL simulation harnesses the realistic dynamics of physical analogue systems while additionally considering the challenges of variable communication delay. This collaborative effort between Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Idaho National Laboratory has resulted in a LabVIEW-based gRPC communication protocol which couples a TRANSFORM Modelica simulation of nuclear components to the ViBRANT physical hardware for realistic feedback and visual representation of control action in real time. A modular python client structure is developed to manage FMU-based Modelica simulation and real-time gRPC communication. HIL testing suggests that the modeled reactor with natural convection molten salt loop coolant configuration responds well to PID control of drum positioning for modulation of reactor core power, however, future efforts will be made to explore the added thermal inertial delay of system level control and downstream demand changes. Development of this platform with a generalized methodology provides a foundation for exploring a variety of reactor configurations and failure modes in rapid order to provide insight into the most effective avenues of study for further research and development.

McConnell, Jono [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000238984741)↗

A Vertically Resolved Analysis of Radiative Feedbacks on Moist Static Energy Variance in Tropical Cyclones

Abstract A vertically resolved moist static energy (MSE) variance budget framework is used to diagnose processes associated with the development of tropical cyclones (TCs) in a general circulation model (GCM) under realistic boundary conditions. Previous studies have shown that interactions between radiation and MSE promote TC development. Here, we examine the vertical contributions of radiation and its interactions with MSE by performing several mechanism-denial experiments in which synoptic-scale radiative interactions are suppressed either in the boundary layer or in the free troposphere. Partly suppressing radiative interactions results in a reduction in global TC frequency. However, the magnitude of reduction and structure of the feedback depend on the intensity and structure of the TCs in these mechanism-denial experiments, indicating that both the magnitude and the vertical location of radiative interactions can impact global TC frequency. Using instantaneous 6-hourly outputs, an explicit computation reveals distinct spatial patterns of the advection term: the vertical component is positive in the mid- to upper troposphere, which reflects an upward transport of MSE by deep convection, whereas the horizontal component is positive in the boundary layer. These results illustrate the impact of the vertical distribution of radiative interactions and vertically varied contribution of the advection term in the development of TCs.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Hydropower Cyber-Physical Configurations

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office funded Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to develop a typology to characterize the variety and pervasiveness of cyber-physical configurations across the nation’s hydropower fleet. Outreach to owners and operators returned configurations for 275 hydropower plants or approximately 12% of the fleet. Components (OT and IT), systems, and connections among systems differed among plants according to function, age, position in the river cascade, and many other factors. Seven cyber-physical configuration types labeled A through I, included from 2 to dozens of plants. They were differentiated by how pervasive data and control connections were among cyber-physical components and how frequently control signals paired with data signals in a feedback loop. The flow of data and control within each type implies what cybersecurity vulnerabilities may exist, and what mitigation actions may be most effective. A self-assessment approach allows plant operators to identify the configuration type similar to their plant and link to the lessons learned and best practices information. The cyber-physical typology reinforces the idea that hydropower facilities vary widely, but it also identifies groups that highlight similarities in how their cyber-physical components interact. This helps address fleetwide cybersecurity needs by identifying a reasonable number of configuration types that share risks, vulnerabilities, and potential mitigations.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Real-time avoidance of the L-mode and H-mode density limit via machine-learned stability metrics

Reliable operation of burning plasma tokamaks will require robust control strategies to avoid macroscopic instability limits such as the L-mode and H-mode density limits (LDL, HDL). In this work, we explore closed-loop avoidance of these phenomena at DIII-D using machine-learned risk metrics. Feedback control is implemented via the ‘DL Supervisor’ scheme, which regulates the chosen risk metric by reducing the density target or increasing NBI heating in real-time. Using the LDL 25 risk metric, the LDL is reproducibly suppressed. We also introduce an HDL risk metric in this study, HDL 25 , which reduces the False Positive Rate by 2x compared to the Greenwald fraction. Applying this scaling to a plasma current ramp-down, we successfully avoid an HDL-driven H/L back-transition. These experiments constitute the first demonstration of real-time DL avoidance using machine-learned risk metrics. These instability metrics outline a path to safer high-density operation, more reliable ramp-down scenarios, and improved off-normal control for next-step devices such as ITER and SPARC.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Sensitivity of surface temperature to oceanic forcing via q-Flux Green’s function experiments. Part III: asymmetric response to warming and cooling

Climate response is often assumed to be linear in climate sensitivity studies. However, by examining the surface temperature (TS) response to pairs of oceanic forcings of equal amplitude but opposite sign in a large set of local q-flux perturbation experiments with CAM5 coupled to a slab, we find strong asymmetry in TS responses to the heating and cooling forcings, indicating a strong nonlinearity intrinsic to the climate system examined. Regardless of where the symmetric forcing is placed, the cooling response to the negative forcing always exceeds the warming to the positive forcing, implying an intrinsic inclination towards cooling of our current climate. Thus, the ongoing global warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases may have already been alleviated by the asymmetric component of the response. The common asymmetry in TS response peaks in high latitudes, especially along sea ice edges, with notable seasonal dependence. Decomposition into different radiative feedbacks through a radiative kernel indicates that the asymmetry in the TS response is realized largely through lapse rate and albedo feedbacks. Further process interference experiments disabling the seasonal cycle and/or sea ice reveal that the asymmetry originates ultimately from the presence of the sea ice component and is further amplified by the seasonal cycle. The fact that a pair of opposite tropical q-flux forcings can excite very similar asymmetric response as a pair placed at 55°S strongly suggests the asymmetric response is a manifestation of an internal mode of the climate model system.

Liu, Fukai↗