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NASA NTRS1992

The Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) Preliminary Error Budget and Performance Estimate

The Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) study phase has resulted in a preliminary error budget and an estimate of the instrument performance. This paper will present the line-of-sight (LOS) Velocity Measurement Error Budget, the instrument Boresight Error Budget, and the predicted signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) performance. The measurement requirements and a preliminary design for the LAWS instrument are presented in a companion paper.

Kenyon, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Estimation of Cometary Rotation Parameters Based on Camera Images

The purpose of the Rosetta mission is the in situ analysis of a cometary nucleus using both remote sensing equipment and scientific instruments delivered to the comet surface by a lander and transmitting measurement data to the comet-orbiting probe. Following a tour of planets including one Mars swing-by and three Earth swing-bys, the Rosetta probe is scheduled to rendezvous with comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in May 2014. The mission poses various flight dynamics challenges, both in terms of parameter estimation and maneuver planning. Along with spacecraft parameters, the comet's position, velocity, attitude, angular velocity, inertia tensor and gravitatonal field need to be estimated. The measurements on which the estimation process is based are ground-based measurements (range and Doppler) yielding information on the heliocentric spacecraft state and images taken by an on-board camera yielding informaton on the comet state relative to the spacecraft. The image-based navigation depends on te identification of cometary landmarks (whose body coordinates also need to be estimated in the process). The paper will describe the estimation process involved, focusing on the phase when, after orbit insertion, the task arises to estimate the cometary rotational motion from camera images on which individual landmarks begin to become identifiable.

Spindler, Karlheinz↗
NASA NTRS2010

Mineralogy and Thermal Properties of V-Type Asteroid 956 Elisa: Evidence for Diogenitic Material from the Spitzer IRS (5-35 Micrometers) Spectrum

We present the thermal infrared (5-35 micrometer) spectrum of 956 Elisa as measured by the Spitzer Infrared Spectrograph ("IRS"; Houck,1.R. et .11. [20041. Astrophys, 1. SuppL 154, 18-24) together with new ground-based lightcurve data and near-IR spectra. From the visible lightcurve photometry, we determine a rotation period of 16.494 +/- 0.001 h, identify the rotational phase of the Spitzer observations, and estimate the visible absolute magnitude (Hv) at that rotational phase to be 12.58 +/- 0.04. From radiometric analysis of the thermal flux spectrum, we find that at the time of observation 956 Elisa had a projected radius of 5.3 +/- 0.4 km with a visible albedo pv = 0.142+/- 0.022, significantly lower than that of the prototype V-type asteroid, 4 Vesta. (This corresponds to a radius of 5.2 +/- 0.4 km at lightcurve mean.) Analysis with the standard thermal model (STM) results in a sub-solar temperature of 292.3 +/- 2.8 K and beaming parameter eta = 1.16 +/- 0.05. Thermophysical modeling places a lower limit of 20 J m(exp -2)K(exp -1)s(exp -1/2) on the thermal inertia of the asteroid's surface layer (if the surface is very smooth) but more likely values fall between 30 and 150 J m(exp -2)K(exp -1)s(exp -1/2) depending on the sense of rotation. The emissivity spectrum, calculated by dividing the measured thermal flux spectrum by the modeled thermal continuum, exhibits mineralogically interpretable spectral features within the 9-12 micrometer reststrahlen band, the 15-16.5 micrometer Si-O-Si stretching region, and the 16-25 micrometer reststrahlen region that are consistent with pyroxene of diogenitic composition: extant diogenitic pyroxenes fall within the narrow compositional range W0(sub 2+/-1)En(sub 74+/-2)Fs(sub 24+/-1). Spectral deconvolution of the 9-12 micrometer reststrahlen features indicates that up to approximately 20% olivine may also be present, suggesting an olivine-diogenite-like mineralogy. The mid-IR spectrum is inconsistent with non-cumulate eucrite as the major component on the surface of 956 Elisa, although cumulate eucrite material may be present at abundances lower than that of the diogenite component. Analysis of new near-IR spectra of 956 Elisa with the Modified Gaussian Model (MGM; Sunshine, J,M., Pieters, C.M., Pratt, S.F.[1990]. J. Geophys. Res, 95 (May), 6955-6966) results in two pyroxene compositions: 75% magnesian low-Ca pyroxene and 25% high-Ca pyroxene. High-Ca pyroxene is not evident in the mid-IR data, but may belong to a component that is underrepresented in the mid-IR spectrum either because of its spatial distribution on the asteroid or because of its particle size. High-Ca pyroxenes that occur as exsolution lamellae may also be more evident spectrally in the NIR than in the mid-IR. In any case, we find that the mid-IR spectrum of 956 Elisa is dominated by emission from material of diogenite- like composition, which has very rarely been observed among asteroids.

Lim, Lucy F.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Modulation/demodulation techniques for satellite communications. Part 4: Appendices

The use of the Viterbi algorithm in a general context is examined. The generalized transfer function bounds are given which permit the following applications to be carried out: maximum likelihood demodulation of such bandwidth modulations as minimum-shift-keying and continuous phase frequency-shift-keying, demodulation of intersymbol interference and partial response signals, estimation and smoothing, and simultaneous phase synchronization, and data detection. Sufficient conditions are reviewed for tightening Chernoff and Rhattacharyya bounds.

Omura, J. K.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Variability in the high energy gamma ray emission from Cyg X-3 over a two-year period (1983 - 1984) at E 4 x 10(11) eV

Cygnus X-3 is observed to emit gamma rays with energies in excess of 4 x 10 to the 11th power eV during two out of 9 observational categories over an 18 month time span. The emissions are observed at the 0.6 phase of the characteristic 4.8 hr light curve for this binary system. We estimate a peak flux at phase 0.6 of 5 x 10 to the minus 10th power photons cm-2s-1 at a software threshold of 8 x 10 to the 11th power eV for Oct/Nov 1983. A flux for the June 84 effect cannot be reliably calculated at present due to lack of Monte Carlo simulations for the energy range and spectral region. For the other 7 observational categories the observations are consistent with zero source emission. The light curve would appear to be variable on a time scale of a couple of weeks at these categories. Selection of compact images in accordance with Monte Carlo simulations combined with empirical optimization techniques have led to an enriched gamma ray light curve for the Oct/Nov 1983 data. Selection on the basis of shower orientation, however, has not led to any notable enhancement of the gamma ray content. Individual Cherenko images can be reliably sorted on an event by event basis into either proton-induced or photon-induced showers.

Cawley, M. F.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Late-time spectra and type Ia supernova models: New clues from the Hubble Space Telescope

Calculated late-time spectra of two classical hydrodynamical models for Type Ia supernovae (deflagration model W7 of Nomoto, Thielemann, & Yokoi, and delayed detonation model DD4 of Woosley & Weaver) are compared with observations of SN 1992A and other spectroscopically normal SNe Ia. An important new piece of information is provided by observations done with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) which cover the ultraviolet range at the nebular phase of a SN Ia: SN 1992A in NGC 1380. For the first time a picture of SN Ia emission from the ultraviolet through the optical is obtained at these phases. Predictions of the classical model (W7 and DD4) are compared with the observed spectrum of SN 1992A and with the optical spectra of SN 1989M in NGC 4579 and SN 1990N in NGC 4639 at similar epochs. The absolute B and V magnitudes of the models are also estimated at these late phases. Taken at face value the nebular spectra of these 'classical' models are more consistent with the long extragalactic distance scale, pointing to distances to NGC 4579 around 21 +/- 3 Mpc and a slightly larger distance, 22 +/- 3 Mpc, to NGC 4639, on the back side of the Virgo Cluster. However, the calculated Fe(+3) luminosity as predicted from the models exceeds the observed limit from the HST data of SN 1992A. Other differences in the ratios of the line intensities between calculated and observed spectra, show some disagreement with the observed spectra at the nebular phases. They may not be the best choice for spectroscopically normal SNe Ia, and their use as an independent calibration of the extragalactic distance scale should be viewed with caution.

Ruiz-Lapuente, P.↗
NASA NTRS1978

SPS cost considerations

Recent solar power satellite (SPS) system definition studies have emphasized cost estimation for the operational phase of an SPS program, in order to assess economic practicality of SPS. A cost analysis approach is described. Cost results for a silicon photovoltaic SPS are reported, showing SPS costs from $1700 to $2700 per kilowatt and busbar power costs from 3 cents to 7 cents per kilowatt-hour. Rationales behind the estimates are discussed.

Woodcock, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Midlatitude disturbances in the Martian atmosphere - A second Mars year

Time spectral and cross-spectral analyses of Viking Lander 2 meteorological data from the fall and winter seasons of a second Mars annual cycle were conducted to determine transient disturbance characteristics with periods longer than a Martian day. It was found that phase relationships among pressure, wind, and temperature oscillations are similar to those of the first year, and consistent with the expected eastward baroclinic waves centered north of the Lander 2 site. Composites constructed for two highly regular subperiods show no evidence of sharp frontal structures, though pressure and temperature waves are clearly asymmetric, and estimates of wavenumbers and phase speeds are found to be in agreement with those obtained from the spectral analysis.

Barnes, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Probabilistic Mass Estimation Algorithm for a Novel 7- Channel Capacitive Sample Verification Sensor

A document describes an algorithm created to estimate the mass placed on a sample verification sensor (SVS) designed for lunar or planetary robotic sample return missions. A novel SVS measures the capacitance between a rigid bottom plate and an elastic top membrane in seven locations. As additional sample material (soil and/or small rocks) is placed on the top membrane, the deformation of the membrane increases the capacitance. The mass estimation algorithm addresses both the calibration of each SVS channel, and also addresses how to combine the capacitances read from each of the seven channels into a single mass estimate. The probabilistic approach combines the channels according to the variance observed during the training phase, and provides not only the mass estimate, but also a value for the certainty of the estimate. SVS capacitance data is collected for known masses under a wide variety of possible loading scenarios, though in all cases, the distribution of sample within the canister is expected to be approximately uniform. A capacitance-vs-mass curve is fitted to this data, and is subsequently used to determine the mass estimate for the single channel s capacitance reading during the measurement phase. This results in seven different mass estimates, one for each SVS channel. Moreover, the variance of the calibration data is used to place a Gaussian probability distribution function (pdf) around this mass estimate. To blend these seven estimates, the seven pdfs are combined into a single Gaussian distribution function, providing the final mean and variance of the estimate. This blending technique essentially takes the final estimate as an average of the estimates of the seven channels, weighted by the inverse of the channel s variance.

Wolf, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1988

Modem for the land mobile satellite channel

This paper describes a modem which has been developed and implemented using a digital signal processor (DSP) for a land mobile satellite demonstration system. The requirements of this digital modem were determined by the characteristics of the land mobile satellite channel. This paper discusses the algorithms which implement the differentiated phase shift keying (DPSK) demodulator. An algorithm is included which estimates symbol timing independent of carrier phase without the use of a square-law nonlinearity.

Henely, Steven J.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Estimating the Modified Allan Variance

The third-difference approach to modified Allan variance (MVAR) leads to a tractable formula for a measure of MVAR estimator confidence, the equivalent degrees of freedom (edf), in the presence of power-law phase noise. The effect of estimation stride on edf is tabulated. A simple approximation for edf is given, and its errors are tabulated. A theorem allowing conservative estimates of edf in the presence of compound noise processes is given.

Allan Variance↗
NASA NTRS2024

Investigating Biases in VLBI Clock Functions and Position Solutions

A systematic bias causing a statistically significant drift between group delay and phase delay measurements in geodetic Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI)has long been present. The cause of this drift remains unknown, although it is readily reproduced in VLBI experiments including a short baseline such as those conducted with the twin 13-meter telescopes at the Wettzell observatory, given the station names WETTZ13N and WETTZELL. This statistical incompatibility has been an obstacle in adopting phase delays in routine VLBI processing. The aim of this study is to provide additional evidence to aid in identifying the source of this systematic bias. A series of four regular VLBI experiments are processed with both group delays and phase delays, and post fit residuals, estimated positions, and clock functions are presented with and without phase calibration applied. These results are also computed for individual intermediate frequency bands.

Geodesy↗
NASA NTRS2008

Structural Definition and Mass Estimation of Lunar Surface Habitats for the Lunar Architecture Team Phase 2 (LAT-2) Study

The Lunar Architecture Team Phase 2 study defined and assessed architecture options for a Lunar Outpost at the Moon's South Pole. The Habitation Focus Element Team was responsible for developing concepts for all of the Habitats and pressurized logistics modules particular to each of the architectures, and defined the shapes, volumes and internal layouts considering human factors, surface operations and safety requirements, as well as Lander mass and volume constraints. The Structures Subsystem Team developed structural concepts, sizing estimates and mass estimates for the primary Habitat structure. In these studies, the primary structure was decomposed into a more detailed list of components to be sized to gain greater insight into concept mass contributors. Structural mass estimates were developed that captured the effect of major design parameters such as internal pressure load. Analytical and empirical equations were developed for each structural component identified. Over 20 different hard-shell, hybrid expandable and inflatable soft-shell Habitat and pressurized logistics module concepts were sized and compared to assess structural performance and efficiency during the study. Habitats were developed in three categories; Mini Habs that are removed from the Lander and placed on the Lunar surface, Monolithic habitats that remain on the Lander, and Habitats that are part of the Mobile Lander system. Each category of Habitat resulted in structural concepts with advantages and disadvantages. The same modular shell components could be used for the Mini Hab concept, maximizing commonality and minimizing development costs. Larger Habitats had higher volumetric mass efficiency and floor area than smaller Habitats (whose mass was dominated by fixed items such as domes and frames). Hybrid and pure expandable Habitat structures were very mass-efficient, but the structures technology is less mature, and the ability to efficiently package and deploy internal subsystems remains an open issue.

Dorsey, John T.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Lithium Inventory of 2 Solar Mass Red Clump Stars in Open Clusters: A Test of the Helium Flash Mechanism

The temperature distribution of field Li-rich red giants suggests the presence of a population of Li-rich red clump (RC) stars. One proposed explanation for this population is that all stars with masses near 2 solar mass experience a shortlived phase of Li-richness at the onset of core He-burning. Many of these stars have low C-12/C-13, a signature of deep mixing that is presumably associated with the Li regeneration. To test this purported mechanism of Li enrichment, we measured abundances in 38 RC stars and 6 red giant branch (RGB) stars in four open clusters selected to have RC masses near 2 solar mass. We find six Li-rich stars (A(Li) greater than or equal to 1.50 dex) of which only two may be RC stars. None of the RC stars have Li exceeding the levels observed in the RGB stars, but given the brevity of the suggested Li-rich phase and the modest sample size, it is probable that stars with larger Li-enrichments were missed simply by chance. However, we find very few stars in our sample with low C-12/C-13. Such low C-12/C-13, seen in many field Li-rich stars, should persist even after lithium has returned to normal low levels. Thus, if Li synthesis during the He flash occurs, it is a rare, but potentially long-lived occurrence rather than a short-lived phase for all stars. We estimate a conservative upper limit of the fraction of stars going through a Li-rich phase to be less than 47%, based on stars that have low C-12/C-13 for their observed A(Li).

Li-rich red giants↗
NASA NTRS2022

Bayesian Rules of Thumb: Robust Uncertainty Quantification in Early Project Cost Estimation

Systems engineers often make use of cost Rules ofThumb in order to estimate cost during early phases of projectformulation. These Rules of Thumb typically take the form ofa sequence of percentages over which a total cost is allocatedacross NASA WBS elements. Rules of Thumb can then be usedto extrapolate cost from one or more known WBS elements tothe remaining unknown WBS elements, assisting early projectformulation architecture studies (such as those in JPL’s Team Xand A Team).A number of issues can arise when generating and using costRules of Thumb. For example, many records of project costsconsist of incomplete data. Typical methods of dealing withincomplete cost allocation data include (a) ignoring missionswith incomplete data, or (b) taking averages of the non-zero percentagesacross missions, but both of these methods can result inbiased estimates if the existence of incomplete data correlateswith total mission cost or any particular WBS element. Anothercommon example is cost reported in one or more incorrect WBSelements. This is especially prevalent in smaller missions whereit is more common for engineers to perform tasks that fall underthe purview of multiple WBS elements.Furthermore, a Rule of Thumb estimate is typically reported asa point estimate; there is no reported uncertainty around thepercentages used to generate an allocation. Even in the rarecase in which confidence intervals around mean percentages areprovided, there may be positive or negative correlations betweenWBS elements which can skew estimates.Here we attempt to address these problems by formulatingprobabilistic Rules of Thumb in which a distribution of allocationschemes, rather than a single allocation scheme, is generated.We use a bootstrap imputation method to simultaneouslyaccount for uncertainty in the missing data while using allavailable information contained in the dataset. The imputeddatasets are then input into a multivariate Bayesian modelwhich accounts for correlations between WBS elements andproperly accounts for uncertainty in the final Rule of Thumbpercentages and predictions. We describe the mathematicalmodel and provides snippets of R code utilizing the brms(Bayesian Regression Models using Stan) package. To illustratethis model, we generate a Bayesian Level 2 WBS Cost Rule ofThumb for MIDEX (Medium-Class Explorers) missions withdata extracted from NASA’s CADRe. We then compare thismethod’s performance with the classical Rule of Thumb method.

Hooke, Melissa A↗
NASA NTRS2004

Characterizing Oscillatory Bursts in Single-Trial EEG Data

Oscillatory bursts in numerous bands ranging from low (theta) to high frequencies (e.g., gamma) undoubtedly play an important role in cortical dynamics. Largely because of the inadequacy of existing analytic techniques. however, oscillatory bursts and their role in cortical processing remains poorly understood. To study oscillatory bursts effectively one must be able to isolate them and characterize them in the single trial. We describe a series of straightforward analysis techniques that produce useful indices of burst characteristics. First, stimulus-evoked responses are estimated using Differentially Variable Component Analysis (dVCA), and are subtracted from the single-trial. The single-trial characteristics of the evoked responses are stored to identify possible correlations with burst activity. Time-frequency (T-F), or wavelet, analyses are then applied to the single trial residuals. While T-F plots have been used in recent studies to identify and isolate bursts, we go further by fitting each burst in the T-F plot with a two-dimensional Gaussian. This provides a set of burst characteristics, such as, center time. burst duration, center frequency. frequency dispersion. and amplitude, all of which contribute to the accurate characterization of the individual burst. The burst phase can also be estimated. Burst characteristics can be quantified with several standard techniques (e.g.. histogramming and clustering), as well as Bayesian techniques (e.g., blocking) to allow a more parametric description analysis of the characteristics of oscillatory bursts, and the relationships of specific parameters to cortical excitability and stimulus integration.

Knuth, K. H.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Microstructure and Oxidation of a MAX Phase/Superalloy Hybrid Interface

Corrosion resistant, strain tolerant MAX phase coatings are of interest for turbine applications. Thin Cr2AlC MAX phase wafers were vacuum diffusion bonded to an advanced turbine disk alloy, LSHR, at 1100 C. The interface, examined by optical and scanning electron microscopy, revealed a primary diffusion zone consisting of ~ 10 micrometers of beta-Ni(Co)Al, decorated with various NiCoCrAl, MC and M3B2 precipitates. On the Cr2AlC side, an additional ~40 micrometers Al-depletion zone of Cr7C3 formed in an interconnected network with the beta-Ni(Co)Al. Oxidation of an exposed edge at 800 C for 100 h produced a fine-grained lenticular alumina scale over Cr2AlC and beta-Ni(Co)Al, with coarser chromia granules over the Cr7C3 regions. Subsequent growth of the diffusion layers was only ~ 5 micrometers in total. A residual stress of ~ 500 MPa was estimated for the MAX phase layer, but no interfacial damage was observed. Subsequent tests for 1000 h reveal similar results.

heat resistant alloys↗