Multiscale analysis of remotely sensed imagery to quantify spatial and temporal patterns of river bank erosion in floodplains with permafrost
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The Fate of Submerged Permafrost and Its Sequestered Carbon: Marine Sources of Greenhouse Gases.
Abstract not provided.
Frederick, Jennifer M↗
What explains the year-to-year variation in growing season timing of boreal black spruce forests?
Amplified climate warming in high latitudes is expected to affect growing season timing of the vast boreal biome. It is unclear whether the presence of permafrost (perennially frozen ground) might have an influence on changes in growing season timing. Here, this study examined how different environmental variables explained, either directly or indirectly, the variation in growing season timing of boreal forest stands with and without permafrost. We expected that environmental variables explaining the variation in growing season timing differed or had different explanatory power depending on permafrost presence or absence. The growing season was delineated from daily gross primary productivity (GPP) time series derived from 40 site-year data of net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange measured with eddy covariance techniques over five black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.])-dominated boreal forest stands in North America. In permafrost-free forest stands, a combination of start in canopy ‘green-up’ in spring and the timing of air and soil temperature increasing above freezing explained the start-of-season (SOS GPP ). Results from commonality analysis and structural equation modeling suggest that canopy ‘green-up’ and air temperature directly affected SOS GPP in permafrost-free forest stands. In addition, soil temperature acted as mediator for an indirect effect of air temperature on SOS GPP . In contrast, none of the environmental variables, or their combination, explained the variation in SOS GPP in forest stands with permafrost. The explanatory power of environmental variables was more consistent regarding the end-of-season (EOS GPP ). In both, forest stands with and without permafrost, EOS GPP was directly explained by mean soil water content in the fall and the first day of continuous snowpack formation. A better understanding how environmental variables control SOS GPP and EOS GPP in forest stands with and without permafrost will help to refine parameterizations of the boreal biome in Earth system models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Shrub and sedge rhizosphere communities display distinct affinities toward exudates and soil organic matter degradation: a quantitative stable isotope probing analysis
Warming temperatures are accelerating permafrost thaw and changing tundra vegetation, where woody shrubs are displacing sedges. Shrubs, such as Betula nana, and sedges, such as Eriophorum vaginatum, exhibit distinct life strategies including unique root-associated, or rhizosphere microbial communities. As permafrost thaws it unlocks previously unavailable carbon and nutrient sources resulting in deeper roots and a translocation of rhizosphere communities. Because permafrost microbial communities contain lower diversity and biomass than rhizosphere communities, the coalescence of rhizosphere and permafrost microbial communities could alter soil organic matter (SOM) degradation rates and increase greenhouse gas emissions. To identify metabolic strategies across distinct rhizosphere and permafrost microbial communities we conducted an isotope tracing incubation experiment. We inoculated thawed permafrost with shrub and sedge rhizosphere communities while adding exudates or water daily and compared this to an uninoculated control. After 46 days, we spiked samples with 18O enriched water or 13C enriched exudates and measured isotope incorporation into microbial DNA with quantitative stable isotope probing (qSIP). Our results indicate that exudate additions had little effect on uninoculated permafrost communities but the addition of exudates and rhizosphere inoculants had a compounding effect on respiration rates. We found that soils inoculated with shrub rhizosphere communities contained a mixture of exudate and SOM degraders while soils inoculated with sedge rhizosphere communities contained mainly SOM degraders. Finally, we found that individual microbial taxa exhibited maximum growth rates under specific combinations of microbial inoculant communities and exudate addition treatments. Our results reveal that microbial niches are strongly influenced by substrate preferences and community context, and suggest that a reduction in sedges and an expansion of shrubs may provide a mechanism by which permafrost carbon losses are mitigated through corresponding shifts in microbial communities and their substrate preferences.
Schaefer, Sean R [Natural Resources and Earth Syst↗
NGEE Arctic Authorship Guidelines
Authorship Guidelines were developed to help facilitate trust among team members as we span multiple institutions, scientific disciplines, and career stages. NGEE Arctic was built on a foundation of open science, data sharing, and collaboration. In Phase 4 of the project, it was particularly important to keep this foundation in mind as we develop new collaborations across the Arctic. Included in this package is one *.pdf. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.
Iversen, Colleen [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000182933450)↗
Anaerobic Psychrophiles from Alaska, Antarctica, and Patagonia: Implications to Possible Life on Mars and Europa
Microorganisms preserved within the permafrost, glaciers, and polar ice sheets of planet Earth provide analogs for microbial life forms that may be encountered in ice or permafrost of Mars, Europa, Callisto, Ganymede, asteroids, comets or other frozen worlds in the Cosmos. The psychrophilic and psychrotolerant microbes of the terrestrial cryosphere help establish the thermal and temporal limitations of life on Earth and provide clues to where and how we should search for evidence of life elsewhere in the Universe. For this reason, the cold-loving microorganisms are directly relevant to Astrobiology. Cryo-preserved microorganisms can remain viable (in deep anabiosis) in permafrost and ice for millions of years. Permafrost, ice wedges, pingos, glaciers, and polar ice sheets may contain intact ancient DNA, lipids, enzymes, proteins, genes, and even frozen and yet viable ancient microbiota. Some microorganisms carry out metabolic processes in water films and brine, acidic, or alkaline channels in permafrost or ice at temperatures far below 0 T. Complex microbial communities live in snow, ice-bubbles, cryoconite holes on glaciers and ancient microbial ecosystems are cryopreserved within the permafrost, glaciers, and polar caps. In the Astrobiology group of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama at Huntsville, we have employed advanced techniques for the isolation, culture, and phylogenetic analysis of many types of microbial extremophiles. We have also used the Environmental Scanning Electron Microscope to study the morphology, ultra-microstructure and chemical composition of microorganisms in ancient permafrost and ice. We discuss several interesting and novel anaerobic microorganisms that we have isolated and cultured from the Pleistocene ice of the Fox Tunnel of Alaska, guano of the Magellanic Penguin, deep sea sediments from the vicinity of the Rainbow Hydrothermal Vent and enrichment cultures from ice of the Patriot Hills of Antarctica. The microbial extremophiles recovered from permafrost, ice, cold pools and deep sea sediments may provide information relevant to the question of how and where we should search for evidence of extant or extinct microbial life elsewhere in the Cosmos.
Hoover, Richard B.↗
Anaerobic Psychrophiles from Alaska, Antarctica, and Patagonia: Implications to Possible Life on Mars and Europa
Microorganisms preserved within the permafrost, glaciers, and polar ice sheets of planet Earth provide analogs for microbial life forms that may be encountered in ice or permafrost of Mars, Europa, Callisto, Ganymede, asteroids, comets or other frozen worlds in the Cosmos. The psychrophilic and psychrotolerant microbes of the terrestrial cryosphere help establish the thermal and temporal limitations of life on Earth and provide clues to where and how we should search for evidence of life elsewhere in the Universe. For this reason, the cold-loving microorganisms are directly relevant to Astrobiology. Cryopreserved microorganisms can remain viable (in deep anabiosis) in permafrost and ice for millions of years. Permafrost, ice wedges, pingos, glaciers, and polar ice sheets may contain intact ancient DNA, lipids, enzymes, proteins, genes, and even frozen and yet viable ancient microbiota. Some microorganisms carry out metabolic processes in water films and brine, acidic, or alkaline channels in permafrost or ice at temperatures far below 0 C. Complex microbial communities live in snow, ice-bubbles, cryoconite holes on glaciers and ancient microbial ecosystems are cryopreserved within the permafrost, glaciers, and polar caps. In the Astrobiology group of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama at Huntsville, we have employed advanced techniques for the isolation, culture, and phylogenetic analysis of many types of microbial extremophiles. We have also used the Environmental Scanning Electron Microscope to study the morphology, ultra-microstructure and chemical composition of microorganisms in ancient permafrost and ice. We discuss several interesting and novel anaerobic microorganisms that we have isolated and cultured from the Pleistocene ice of the Fox Tunnel of Alaska, guano of the Magellanic Penguin, deep-sea sediments from the vicinity of the Rainbow Hydrothermal Vent and enrichment cultures from ice of the Patriot Hills of Antarctica. The microbial extremophiles recovered from permafrost, ice, cold pools and deep-sea sediments may provide information relevant to the question of how and where we should search for evidence of extant or extinct microbial life elsewhere in the Cosmos.
Hoover, Richard B.↗
Simulated Hydrological Dynamics and Coupled Iron Redox Cycling Impact Methane Production in an Arctic Soil
The fate of organic carbon (C) in permafrost soils is important to the climate system due to the large global stocks of permafrost C. Thawing permafrost can be subject to dynamic hydrology, making redox processes an important factor controlling soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition rates and greenhouse gas production. In iron (Fe)-rich permafrost soils, Fe(III) can serve as a terminal electron acceptor, promoting anaerobic respiration of SOM and increasing pH. Current large-scale models of Arctic C cycling do not include Fe cycling or pH interactions. Here, a geochemical reaction model was developed by coupling Fe redox reactions and C cycling to simulate SOM decomposition, Fe(III) reduction, pH dynamics, and greenhouse gas production in permafrost soils subject to dynamic hydrology. In this study we parameterized the model using measured CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes as well as changes in pH, Fe(II), and dissolved organic C concentrations from oxic and anoxic incubations of permafrost soils from polygonal permafrost sites in northern Alaska, United States. In simulations of repeated oxic-anoxic cycles, Fe(III) reduction during anoxic periods enhanced CO 2 production, while the net effect of Fe(III) reduction on cumulative CH 4 fluxes depended on substrate C availability. With lower substrate availability, Fe(III) reduction decreased total CH 4 production by further limiting available substrate. With higher substrate availability, Fe(III) reduction enhanced CH 4 production by increasing pH. Our results suggest that interactions among Fe-redox reactions, pH and methanogenesis are important factors in predicting CH 4 and CO 2 production as well as SOM decomposition rates in Fe-rich, frequently waterlogged Arctic soils.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiment Arctic Rainfall Simulator: a tool to understand the effects of changing rainfall patterns in the Arctic
Rainfall frequency and intensity are expected to increase in the Arctic, with potential detrimental impacts on permafrost, leading to enhanced thawing and carbon release to the atmosphere. However, there have been very few studies on the effect of discrete rain events on permafrost in the Arctic and sub-Arctic. Conducting controlled rainfall experiments within permafrost landscapes can provide an improved understanding of the effect of changing intensity, duration, and timing of rain events on permafrost tundra ecosystems. Here, we describe the design and implementation of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiment Arctic Rainfall Simulator (NARS), a variable intensity (4–82 mm/h) rainfall simulator that can be used to study the effects of rainfall on permafrost stability. The NARS design includes a 3D-printed 4 cm H-flume and uses an eTape resistivity sensor that was calibrated (R 2 = 0.9–0.96) to measure discharge from the system. NARS is designed to be lightweight, simple to construct, and can be easily deployed in remote locations. As a field validation of updated rainfall simulator design and modernized controls, NARS was tested on the Seward Peninsula, AK. Because of its portability, versatility in deployment, dimensions, and rainfall intensity, NARS represents a methodological innovation for researching the impacts of rainfall on permafrost environments.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The effects of warming and soil chemistry on bacterial community structure in Arctic tundra soils
Soil microbial communities in the Arctic play a critical role in regulating the global carbon (C) cycle. Vast amounts of C are stored in northern latitude soils, and rising temperatures in the Arctic threaten to thaw permafrost, making relatively inaccessible C sources more available for mineralization by soil microbes. Few studies have characterized how microbial community structure responds to thawing permafrost in the context of varying soil chemistries associated with contrasting tundra landscapes. Here, we subjected active layer and permafrost soils from upland and lowland tundra sites on the North Slope of Alaska to a soil-warming incubation experiment and compared soil bacterial community profiles (obtained by 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing) before and after incubation. The influence of soil composition (characterized by mid-infrared [MIR] spectroscopy) on bacterial community structure and class abundance was analyzed using redundancy and correlation analyses. We found increased abundances of Alphaproteobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria, and Bacteroidetes [Sphingobacteriia] post incubation, particularly in permafrost soils. The categorical descriptors site and soil layer had the most explanatory power in our predictive models of bacterial community structure, highlighting the close relationship between soil bacteria and the soil environment. Specific soil chemical attributes characterizing the soil environments that were found to be the best predictors include MIR spectral bands associated with inorganic C, silicates, amide II (C=N stretch), and carboxylics (C-O stretch), and MIR peak ratios representing C substrate quality. Overall, these results further characterize soil bacterial community shifts that may occur as a frozen environment with limited access to C sources, such as is found in undisturbed permafrost, transitions to warmer and more C-available environments, such as is predicted in thawing permafrost due to climate change.
16S rRNA sequencing↗
Deposition, Accumulation, and Alteration of Cl(-), NO3(-), ClO4(-) and ClO3(-) Salts in a Hyper-Arid Polar Environment: Mass Balance and Isotopic Constraints
The salt fraction in permafrost soils/sediments of the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) of Antarctica can be used as a proxy for cold desert geochemical processes and paleoclimate reconstruction. Previous analyses of the salt fraction in MDV permafrost soils have largely been conducted in coastal regions where permafrost soils are variably affected by aqueous processes and mixed inputs from marine and stratospheric sources. We expand upon this work by evaluating permafrost soil/sediments in University Valley, located in the ultraxerous zone where both liquid water transport and marine influences are minimal. We determined the abundances of Cl(-), NO3(-, ClO4(-)and ClO3(-)in dry and ice-cemented soil/sediments, snow and glacier ice, and also characterized Cl(-) and NO3(-) isotopically. The data are not consistent with salt deposition in a sublimation till, nor with nuclear weapon testing fall-out, and instead point to a dominantly stratospheric source and to varying degrees of post depositional transformation depending on the substrate, from minimal alteration in bare soils to significant alteration (photodegradation and/or volatilization) in snow and glacier ice. Ionic abundances in the dry permafrost layer indicate limited vertical transport under the current climate conditions, likely due to percolation of snowmelt. Subtle changes in ClO4(-)/NO3(-) ratios and NO3(-) isotopic composition with depth and location may reflect both transport related fractionation and depositional history. Low molar ratios of ClO3(-)/ClO4(-) in surface soils compared to deposition and other arid systems suggest significant post depositional loss of ClO3(-), possibly due to reduction by iron minerals, which may have important implications for oxy-chlorine species on Mars. Salt accumulation varies with distance along the valley and apparent accumulation times based on multiple methods range from approximately 10 to 30 kyr near the glacier to 70-200 kyr near the valley mouth. The relatively young age of the salts and relatively low and homogeneous anion concentrations in the ice-cemented sediments point to either a mechanism of recent salt removal, or to relatively modern permafrost soils (less than 1 million years). Together, our results show that near surface salts in University Valley serve as an end-member of stratospheric sources not subject to biological processes or extensive remobilization.
cold desert geochemical processes↗
Substantial and overlooked greenhouse gas emissions from deep Arctic lake sediment
Thermokarst lakes cause abrupt and sustained permafrost degradation and have the potential to release large quantities of ancient carbon to the atmosphere. Despite concerns about how lakes will affect the permafrost carbon feedback, the magnitude of carbon dioxide and methane emissions from deep permafrost soils remains poorly understood. Here we incubated a very deep sediment core (20 m) to constrain the potential productivity of thawed Yedoma and underlying Quaternary sand and gravel deposits. Through radiocarbon dating, sediment incubations and sediment facies classifications, we show that extensive permafrost thaw can occur beneath lakes on timescales of decades to centuries. Although it has been assumed that shallow, aerobic carbon dioxide production will dominate the climate impact of permafrost thaw, we found that anaerobic carbon dioxide and methane production from deep sediments was commensurate with aerobic production on a per gram carbon basis, and had double the global warming potential at warmer temperatures. Carbon release from deep Arctic sediments may thus have a more substantial impact on a changing climate than currently anticipated. These environments are presently overlooked in estimates of the permafrost carbon feedback.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Active layer depth and soil properties impact specific leaf area variation and ecosystem productivity in a boreal forest
Specific leaf area (SLA, leaf area per unit dry mass) is a key canopy structural characteristic, a measure of photosynthetic capacity, and an important input into many terrestrial process models. Although many studies have examined SLA variation, relatively few data exist from high latitude, climate-sensitive permafrost regions. We measured SLA and soil and topographic properties across a boreal forest permafrost transition, in which dominant tree species changed as permafrost deepened from 54 to >150 cm over 75 m hillslope transects in Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed, Alaska. We characterized both linear and threshold relationships between topographic and edaphic variables and SLA and developed a conceptual model of these relationships. We found that the depth of the soil active layer above permafrost was significantly and positively correlated with SLA for both coniferous and deciduous boreal tree species. Intraspecific SLA variation was associated with a fivefold increase in net primary production, suggesting that changes in active layer depth due to permafrost thaw could strongly influence ecosystem productivity. While this is an exploratory study to begin understanding SLA variation in a non-contiguous permafrost system, our results indicate the need for more extensive evaluation across larger spatial domains. These empirical relationships and associated uncertainty can be incorporated into ecosystem models that use dynamic traits, improving our ability to predict ecosystem-level carbon cycling responses to ongoing climate change.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Spatial and temporal variation in forest transpiration across a forested boreal peatland complex
Transpiration is a globally important component of evapotranspiration. Careful upscaling of transpiration from point measurements is thus crucial for quantifying water and energy fluxes. In spatially heterogeneous landscapes common across the boreal biome, upscaled transpiration estimates are difficult to determine due to variation in local environmental conditions (e.g., basal area, soil moisture, permafrost). Here, we sought to determine stand-level attributes that influence transpiration scalars for a forested boreal peatland complex consisting of sparsely treed wetlands and densely treed permafrost plateaus as land cover types. The objectives were to quantify spatial and temporal variability in stand-level transpiration, and to identify sources of uncertainty when scaling point measurements to the stand-level. Using heat ratio method sap flow sensors, we determined sap velocity for black spruce and tamarack for 2-week periods during peak growing season in 2013, 2017 and 2018. We found greater basal area, drier soils, and the presence of permafrost increased daily sap velocity in individual trees, suggesting that local environmental conditions are important in dictating sap velocity. When sap velocity was scaled to stand-level transpiration using gridded 20 × 20 m resolution data across the ~10 ha Scotty Creek ForestGEO plot, we observed significant differences in daily plot transpiration among years (0.17–0.30 mm), and across land cover types. Daily transpiration was lowest in grid-cells with sparsely treed wetlands compared to grid-cells with well-drained and densely treed permafrost plateaus, where daily transpiration reached 0.80 mm, or 30% of the daily evapotranspiration. When transpiration scalars (i.e., sap velocity) were not specific to the different land cover types (i.e., permafrost plateaus and wetlands), scaled stand-level transpiration was overestimated by 42%. To quantify the relative contribution of tree transpiration to ecosystem evapotranspiration, we recommend that sampling designs stratify across local environmental conditions to accurately represent variation associated with land cover types, especially with different hydrological functioning as encountered in rapidly thawing boreal peatland complexes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Shallow soils are warmer under trees and tall shrubs across Arctic and Boreal ecosystems
Soils are warming as air temperatures rise across the Arctic and Boreal region concurrent with the expansion of tall-statured shrubs and trees in the tundra. Changes in vegetation structure and function are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, thereby modifying climate feedbacks related to permafrost thaw and carbon cycling. However, current understanding of vegetation impacts on soil temperature is limited to local or regional scales and lacks the generality necessary to predict soil warming and permafrost stability on a pan-Arctic scale. Here we synthesize shallow soil and air temperature observations with broad spatial and temporal coverage collected across 106 sites representing nine different vegetation types in the permafrost region. We showed ecosystems with tall-statured shrubs and trees (> 40 cm) have warmer shallow soils than those with short-statured tundra vegetation when normalized to a constant air temperature. In tree and tall shrub vegetation types, cooler temperatures in the warm season do not lead to cooler mean annual soil temperature indicating that ground thermal regimes in the cold-season rather than the warm-season are most critical for predicting soil warming in ecosystems underlain by permafrost. Our results suggest that the expansion of tall shrubs and trees into tundra regions can amplify shallow soil warming, and could increase the potential for increased seasonal thaw depth and increase soil carbon cycling rates and lead to increased carbon dioxide loss and further permafrost thaw.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Methane emission hotspots in a boreal forest-fen mosaic potentially linked to deep taliks
Permafrost thaw is transforming boreal forests into mosaics of wetlands and drier uplands. Topographic controls on hydrological and ecological conditions impact methane (CH 4 ) fluxes, contributing to uncertainty in local and regional CH 4 budgets and underlying drivers. The objective of this study was to explore CH 4 fluxes and their drivers in a transitioning boreal forest-fen ecosystem (Goldstream Valley, Alaska, USA). This landscape is characterized by thawing discontinuous permafrost and heterogeneous mosaics of fens, collapse-scar channels, and small mounds of permafrost soils. From a survey in July 2021, observed chamber CH4 fluxes included fen areas with intermediate to very high emissions (29.8–635.3 mg CH 4 m −2 d −1 ), clustered locations with CH 4 uptake (−2.11 to −0.7 mg CH 4 m −2 d −1 ), and three anomalous emission hotspots (342.4–772.4 mg CH 4 m −2 d −1 ) that were located near samples with lower emissions. Some surface and near-surface variables partially explained the spatial variation in CH 4 flux. Log-transformed CH 4 flux had a positive linear relationship with soil moisture at 20 cm depth ( R 2 = 0.31, p -value < 1e-5) and negative linear relationships with microtopography ( R 2 = 0.13, p -value < 0.006) and slope ( R 2 = 0.28, p -value < 2e-5). Methane emissions generally occurred in flat, wet, graminoid-dominated fens, whereas CH 4 uptake occurred on permafrost mounds dominated by feather mosses and woody vegetation. However, the CH 4 hotspots occurred on drier, slightly sloped locations with low or undetectable near-surface methanogen abundance, suggesting that CH 4 was produced in deeper soils. When the hotspot samples were omitted, log-transformed CH 4 flux had a positive linear relationship with near-surface methanogen abundance ( R 2 = 0.29, p -value = 0.0023), and stronger linear relationships with soil moisture, slope, and soil macronutrient concentrations. Our findings suggest that some CH 4 emission hotspots could arise from CH 4 in deep taliks. The inference that methanogenesis occurs in deep taliks was strengthened by the identification of intrapermafrost taliks across the study area using low-frequency geophysical induction. This study assesses surface spatial heterogeneity in the context of subsurface permafrost conditions and highlights the complexity of CH 4 flux patterns in transitioning forest-wetland ecosystems. To better inform regional CH 4 budgets, further research is needed to understand the spatial distribution of terrestrial CH 4 hotspots and to resolve their surface, near-surface, and subsurface drivers.
boreal↗
Linking climate change and human systems: a case study of Arctic pipelines
This case study estimates the potential economic risk from permafrost thaw on oil and gas pipelines in the Russian Arctic as part of a larger effort to better understand complex interactions between human and earth systems in the Arctic. Pan-Arctic simulations of permafrost thaw-depth from the Community Land Model version 4.5 and ground ice characteristics were used to generate ground subsidence projections over the period 2020 to 2040 with a quantification of uncertainty. Russian oil and gas transmission pipeline networks were then overlaid on the permafrost thaw projections in ArcGIS to identify pipelines vulnerable to damage from permafrost thaw. Recent pipeline construction costs were used to estimate the total replacement costs for at-risk pipelines under several thaw scenarios. The results indicate that permafrost thaw poses a major threat to pipeline infrastructure, especially gas pipelines, in the Russian Arctic. Over the twenty-year study period, total replacement costs for oil and gas pipelines were estimated at $\$$110 billion in 2020 USD. Reduced economic viability of pipelines under climate change will likely trigger major shifts in the Russian oil and gas industry, which would have impacts on markets, emissions, and geopolitics.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming
Abstract. Anthropogenic warming in the Arctic is causing hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw, with implications for flows of water, carbon, and energy from terrestrial biomes to coastal zones. To better understand the likely impacts of these changes, we used a hydrology model driven by meteorological data from atmospheric reanalysis and two global climate models for the period 1980–2100. The hydrology model accounts for soil freeze–thaw processes and was applied across the pan-Arctic drainage basin. The simulations point to greater changes over northernmost areas of the basin underlain by permafrost and to the western Arctic. An acceleration of simulated river discharge over the recent past is commensurate with trends drawn from observations and reported in other studies. Between early-century (2000–2019) and late-century (2080–2099) periods, the model simulations indicate an increase in annual total runoff of 17 %–25 %, while the proportion of runoff emanating from subsurface pathways is projected to increase by 13 %–30 %, with the largest changes noted in summer and autumn and across areas with permafrost. Most notably, runoff contributions to river discharge shift to northern parts of the Arctic Basin that contain greater amounts of soil carbon. Each season sees an increase in subsurface runoff; spring is the only season where surface runoff dominates the rise in total runoff, and summer experiences a decline in total runoff despite an increase in the subsurface component. The greater changes that are seen in areas where permafrost exists support the notion that increased soil thaw is shifting hydrological contributions to more subsurface flow. The manifestations of warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw will impact Arctic terrestrial and coastal environments through altered river flows and the materials they transport.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗