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At least 307 records · Page 17

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DOE OSTI2020

Comprehensive Approach to Measure the Mobility Energy Productivity of Freight Transport

Freight travel accounts for a major share of the energy consumed in the transportation sector in any country, and the United States is no exception. Understanding and modeling freight movement are critical, particularly in the context of capturing the impact of emerging technologies on freight travel and its externalities. The domain of freight modeling and forecasting has been gaining pace in recent years, but advancement in comprehensive freight performance metrics is still lagging. Conventional freight performance metrics such as truck-miles, ton-miles, or value-miles are unidimensional and aggregate in nature, making them unsuitable to accurately capture the impact of emerging transportation trends on the performance or productivity of freight systems. Addressing the research need, this paper presents the “Freight Mobility Energy Productivity” metric to quantify freight productivity of current as well as future freight systems, accounting for various costs associated with freight transport. The proposed metric was implemented using data from the Freight Analysis Framework along with other published sources, and shows intuitive results in quantifying freight productivity. Further, a scenario analysis exercise was conducted to test the capability of the metric in tracking improvements in system-level freight productivity as a result of vehicle electrification. The relative differences in Freight Mobility Energy Productivity scores help identify which zones benefit from the vehicle powertrain technology improvement. The results of the scenario analysis reinforce confidence that the proposed metric can be used as a decision support tool in assessing the productivity of existing as well as future freight trends and technologies.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impact of biomass burning aerosols on radiation, clouds, and precipitation over the Amazon: relative importance of aerosol–cloud and aerosol–radiation interactions

Biomass burning (BB) aerosols can influence regional and global climate through interactions with radiation, clouds, and precipitation. Here, we investigate the impact of BB aerosols on the energy balance and hydrological cycle over the Amazon Basin during the dry season. We performed simulations with a fully coupled meteorology–chemistry model, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), for a range of different BB emission scenarios to explore and characterize nonlinear effects and individual contributions from aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). The ARIs of BB aerosols tend to suppress low-level liquid clouds by local warming and increased evaporation and to facilitate the formation of high-level ice clouds by enhancing updrafts and condensation at high altitudes. In contrast, the ACIs of BB aerosol particles tend to enhance the formation and lifetime of low-level liquid clouds by providing more cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and to suppress the formation of high-level ice clouds by reducing updrafts and condensable water vapor at high altitudes (>8 km). For scenarios representing the lower and upper limits of BB emission estimates for recent years (2002–2016), we obtained total regional BB aerosol radiative forcings of –0.2 and 1.5 W m –2 , respectively, showing that the influence of BB aerosols on the regional energy balance can range from modest cooling to strong warming. We find that ACIs dominate at low BB emission rates and low aerosol optical depth (AOD), leading to an increased cloud liquid water path (LWP) and negative radiative forcing, whereas ARIs dominate at high BB emission rates and high AOD, leading to a reduction of LWP and positive radiative forcing. In all scenarios, BB aerosols led to a decrease in the frequency of occurrence and rate of precipitation, caused primarily by ACI effects at low aerosol loading and by ARI effects at high aerosol loading. The dependence of precipitation reduction on BB aerosol loading is greater in a strong convective regime than under weakly convective conditions. Overall, our results show that ACIs tend to saturate at high aerosol loading, whereas the strength of ARIs continues to increase and plays a more important role in highly polluted episodes and regions. This should hold not only for BB aerosols over the Amazon, but also for other light-absorbing aerosols such as fossil fuel combustion aerosols in industrialized and densely populated areas. The importance of ARIs at high aerosol loading highlights the need for accurately characterizing aerosol optical properties in the investigation of aerosol effects on clouds, precipitation, and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Comprehensive Approach to Measure the Efficiency of Freight Transport: Freight Mobility Energy Productivity (F-MEP) Metric

Freight travel accounts for a major share of the energy consumed in the transportation sector in any country, and the United States is no exception. Understanding and modeling freight movement is critical, particularly in the context of capturing the impact of emerging technologies on freight travel and its externalities. The domain of freight modeling and forecasting is gaining pace in the recent years, but advancement in comprehensive freight performance metrics is still lagging. Conventional freight performance metrics such as truck-miles, ton-miles, or value-miles are unidimensional and aggregated in nature, making them unsuitable to accurately capture the impact of emerging transportation trends on the performance of freight systems. Addressing this research need, this paper presents the 'Freight Mobility Energy Productivity' metric to quantify freight performance of current as well as future freight systems, accounting for various costs associated with freight transport. The proposed metric was implemented using data from the Freight Analysis Framework along with other published sources, which shows intuitive results in quantifying freight performance. Further, a scenario analysis exercise was conducted to test the capability of the metric in tracking improvements in system-level freight efficiency as a result of vehicle powertrain technology improvement. Results of the scenario analysis reinforce confidence that the proposed metric can be used as a decision support tool in assessing the efficiency of existing as well as future freight trends and technologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Comprehensive Approach to Measure the Mobility Energy Productivity of Freight Transport: Preprint

Freight travel accounts for a major share of the energy consumed in the transportation sector in any country, and the United States is no exception. Understanding and modeling freight movement are critical, particularly in the context of capturing the impact of emerging technologies on freight travel and its externalities. The domain of freight modeling and forecasting is gaining pace in the recent years, but advancement in comprehensive freight performance metrics is still lagging. Conventional freight performance metrics such as truck-miles, ton-miles, or value-miles are unidimensional and aggregate in nature, making them unsuitable to accurately capture the impact of emerging transportation trends on the performance or productivity of freight systems. Addressing the research need, this paper presents the “Freight Mobility Energy Productivity” metric to quantify freight productivity of current as well as future freight systems, accounting for various costs associated with freight transport. The proposed metric was implemented using data from the Freight Analysis Framework along with other published sources, which shows intuitive results in quantifying freight productivity. Further, a scenario analysis exercise was conducted to test the capability of the metric in tracking improvements in system-level freight productivity as a result of vehicle electrification. The relative differences in Freight Mobility Energy Productivity scores help identify which zones benefit from the vehicle powertrain technology improvement. The results of the scenario analysis reinforce confidence that the proposed metric can be used as a decision support tool in assessing the productivity of existing as well as future freight trends and technologies.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Gridded Solar Irradiance Ensemble Prediction System Based on WRF-Solar EPS and the Analog Ensemble

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method, the analog ensemble (AnEn), are used to generate calibrated gridded ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) retrievals, based on geostationary satellites from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) are used for both calibrating and verifying the day-ahead GHI and DNI predictions (GDIP). A 10-member ensemble of WRF-Solar EPS is run in a re-forecast mode to generate day-ahead GDIP for three years. The AnEn is used to calibrate GDIP at each grid point independently using the NSRDB as the “ground truth”. Performance evaluations of deterministic and probabilistic attributes are carried out over the whole CONUS. The results demonstrate that using the AnEn calibrated ensemble forecast from WRF-Solar EPS contributes to improving the overall quality of the GHI predictions with respect to an AnEn calibrated system based only on the deterministic run of WRF-Solar. In fact, the calibrated WRF-Solar EPS’s mean exhibits a lower bias and RMSE than the calibrated deterministic WRF-Solar. Moreover, using the ensemble mean and spread as predictors for the AnEn allows a more effective calibration than using variables only from the deterministic runs. Finally, it has been shown that the recently introduced algorithm of correction for rare events is of paramount importance to obtain the lowest values of GHI from the calibrated ensemble (WRF-Solar EPS AnEn), qualitatively consistent with those observed from the NSRDB.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗

DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images: Preprint

Bayesian model averaging↗

DOE OSTI2022

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Part II, Machine Learning and Model Interpretability

Machine learning (ML) models have been applied to forecast solar energy; however, they often lack clarity of interpretability and underlying physics. This work addresses such challenges by developing a hierarchy of ML models that gradually introduce predictors to improve the forecast accuracy based on a physics-based framework. Three ML models (ARIMA, LSTM, and XGBoost) are examined and compared with four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I and the simple persistence model to assess the improvement of different models. The 7-year measurements at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement's Southern Great Plains Central Facility site are used for forecasts and evaluations. The results reveal that the step-by-step introduction of predictors leads to different improvements for models at different hierarchical levels. Comparison of the ML models with persistence models shows that LSTM and XGBoost outperform all the persistence models, with LSTM having the overall best performance; however, ARIMA underperforms the four physics-informed persistence models. This study demonstrates the importance and utility of incorporating physics into ML models in improving forecast accuracy by introducing a hierarchy of physics-based predictors, distinguishing predictor contributions, and enhancing the ML interpretability. The combined use of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) significantly improves the forecast accuracy compared to using individual irradiances alone because the pair contains more information on cloud-radiation interactions.

interpretability↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the WFIP2 updates to the HRRR model using scanning Doppler lidar measurements in the complex terrain of the Columbia River Basin

The wind-energy (WE) industry relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models as foundational or base models for many purposes, including wind-resource assessment and wind-power forecasting. During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) in the Columbia River Basin of Oregon and Washington, a significant effort was made to improve NWP forecasts through focused model development, to include experimental refinements to the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model physics and horizontal grid spacing. In this study, the performance of an experimental version of HRRR that includes these refinements is tested against a control version, which corresponds to that of the operational HRRR run by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Centers for Environmental Protection at the outset of WFIP2. Furthermore, the effects of horizontal grid resolution were also tested by comparing wind forecasts from the HRRR (with 3-km grid spacing) with those from a finer-resolution HRRR nest with 750-m grid spacing. Model forecasts are validated against accurate wind-profile measurements by three scanning, pulsed Doppler lidars at sites separated by a total distance of 71 km. Model skill and improvements in model skill, attributable to physics refinements and improved horizontal grid resolution, varied by season, by site, and during periods of atmospheric phenomena relevant to WE. In general, model errors were the largest below 150 m above ground level (AGL). Experimental HRRR refinements tended to reduce the mean absolute error (MAE) and other error metrics for many conditions, but degradation in skill (increased MAE) was noted below 150 m AGL at the two lowest-elevation sites at night. Finer resolution was found to produce the most significant reductions in the error metrics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Forecasting high-dimensional spatio-temporal systems from sparse measurements

This paper introduces a new neural network architecture designed to forecast high-dimensional spatio-temporal data using only sparse measurements. The architecture uses a two-stage end-to-end framework that combines neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) with vision transformers. Initially, our approach models the underlying dynamics of complex systems within a low-dimensional space; and then it reconstructs the corresponding high-dimensional spatial fields. Many traditional methods involve decoding high-dimensional spatial fields before modeling the dynamics, while some other methods use an encoder to transition from high-dimensional observations to a latent space for dynamic modeling. In contrast, our approach directly uses sparse measurements to model the dynamics, bypassing the need for an encoder. This direct approach simplifies the modeling process, reduces computational complexity, and enhances the efficiency and scalability of the method for large datasets. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework through applications to various spatio-temporal systems, including fluid flows and global weather patterns. Although sparse measurements have limitations, our experiments reveal that they are sufficient to forecast system dynamics accurately over long time horizons. Our results also indicate that the performance of our proposed method remains robust across different sensor placement strategies, with further improvements as the number of sensors increases. This robustness underscores the flexibility of our architecture, particularly in real-world scenarios where sensor data is often sparse and unevenly distributed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

What Is the Value of Alternative Methods for Estimating Ramping Needs?

Power system operators procure and deploy flexibility reserves or ramping products to address balancing needs caused by uncertainty and variability of load and generation. Existing methods estimate ramping needs using calendar information and historical forecast errors. Novel methods investigate if real-time weather information could inform ramping and other balancing requirements. This paper compares estimation methods for ramping requirements in theory and practice. The theoretical framework indicates when an alternative method could yield improved economic or reliability performance than existing methods by requiring lower or higher levels of ramping products. Preliminary simulations on a 118-bus test system for 4 days in May 2019 illustrate how system performance improves or deteriorates when ramping requirements are weather-informed (alternative) instead of calendar-based (baseline). Preliminary results suggest high variability in change of performance and underline the impact of additional factors, such as system conditions, on the realized performance change.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Fisher Forecasting for the DESC with $\texttt{Augur}$

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) has begun its ten-year survey of the entire visible southern hemisphere. To ensure robust cosmological measurements, computationally inexpensive investigations of modeling choices must be made to gauge the performance of proposed cosmological analyses. In this paper, we introduce the $\texttt{Augur}$ tool of the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), which provides Fisher forecasts for cosmological inference for the LSST using software frameworks designed for DESC science. We test the pipeline by comparing it to forecasts produced by external code and direct sampling of the posterior via nested sampling methods, finding good agreement between all methods. We additionally investigate a range of modeling and hyperparameter choices for a 3$\times$2pt investigation in harmonic space, providing users with diagnostics to obtain reliable forecasts. $\texttt{Augur}$ will be continually updated to be compatible with the other tools in the DESC software ecosystem as additional probes and functionality become available.

Rogozenski, Paul [Carnegie Mellon U.; Arizona U.] ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Urban Representation on Simulation of Hurricane Rainfall

Abstract Taking the examples of Hurricane Florence (2018) over the Carolinas and Hurricane Harvey (2017) over the Texas Gulf Coast, the study attempts to understand the performance of slab, single‐layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM), and Building Environment Parameterization (BEP) in simulating hurricane rainfall using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF model simulations showed that for an intense, large‐scale event such as a hurricane, the model quantitative precipitation forecast over the urban domain was sensitive to the model urban physics. The spatial and temporal verification using the modified Kling‐Gupta efficiency and Method for Object based Diagnostic and Evaluation in Time Domain suggests that UCM performance is superior to the BEP scheme. Additionally, using the BEP urban physics scheme over UCM for landfalling hurricane rainfall simulations has helped simulate heavy rainfall hotspots.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cross-Market Price Difference Forecast Using Deep Learning for Electricity Markets

Price forecasting is in the center of decision making in electricity markets. Many researches have been done in forecasting energy prices while little research has been reported on forecasting price difference between day-ahead and realtime markets due to its high volatility, which however plays a critical role in virtual trading. To this end, this paper takes the first attempt to employ novel deep learning architecture with Bidirectional Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) units to forecast the price difference between day-ahead and real-time markets for the same node. The raw data is collected from PJM market, processed and fed into the proposed network. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and customized performance metric are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Case studies show that it outperforms the traditional statistical models like ARIMA, and machine learning models like XGBoost and SVR methods in both RMSE and the capability of forecasting the sign of price difference. Additionally, to cross-market price difference forecast, the proposed approach has the potential to be applied to solve other forecasting problems such as price spread forecast in DA market for Financial Transmission Right (FTR) trading purpose.

DA/RT price difference↗

DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗

DOE OSTI2019

A copula-based Bayesian method for probabilistic solar power forecasting

With increased penetration of solar energy sources, solar power forecasting has become more crucial and challenging. This paper proposes a copula-based Bayesian approach to improve probabilistic solar power forecasting by capturing the joint distribution between solar power and ambient temperature. A prior forecast distribution is first obtained using different underlying point forecasting models. Parametric and empirical copulas of solar power and temperature are then developed to update the prior distribution to the posterior forecast distribution. A public solar power database is used to demonstrate effectiveness of the proposed method. Numerical results show that the copula-based Bayesian method outperforms the forecasting method that directly uses temperature as a feature. The Bayesian method is also compared with persistent models and show improved performance. Furthermore, this article includes supplementary material (data and code) for reproducibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

BatteryPro: A Python Toolkit for Battery Data Analysis and Machine Learning Predictions

Analyzing battery test data for research & development can be time-consuming since battery tests often run on the order of months to years, generating large volumes of data. BatteryPro is a comprehensive Python package and software designed to facilitate advanced analysis and performance predictions for battery test data. Developed for battery researchers, it supports data types from widely used battery testing instruments, including MACCOR and Biologic cycling systems. The software provides a variety of tools for extracting and plotting key battery parameters such as time, voltage, capacity, current, and pressure. In addition to its extensive data analysis capabilities, BatteryPro features a dedicated machine learning module that employs a Bayesian Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) to predict battery performance and degradation. Users can generate synthetic capacity fade data, calculate fade metrics, and leverage predictive models to forecast long-term battery behavior. The software's graphical user interface (GUI) enhances usability, allowing researchers to upload, merge, and analyze multiple data files with full customizability. The GUI also supports machine learning predictions, enabling users to fit models and make predictions based on selected data and parameters. BatteryPro is built using QtDesigner, scikit-learn, matplotlib, and pandas, ensuring a high level of customization, flexibility, and accuracy in battery data analysis. This tool aims to empower researchers with the ability to perform detailed battery analysis and make informed predictions, ultimately advancing the field of battery research.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗