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Results for “parameter sensitivity analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

Optimal pumping schedule with high-viscosity gel for uniform distribution of proppant in unconventional reservoirs

Hydrocarbon recovery from a hydraulic-fractured unconventional reservoir can be enhanced by replacing slickwater with non-Newtonian high-viscosity gel as a fracturing fluid. However, in the literature, the role of gel rheology on hydrocarbon production from a fractured reservoir is not very well understood. This lack of understanding makes it difficult for the industry to choose appropriate viscosity parameters of fracturing gels. Motivated by these limitations, first, we have developed a high-fidelity model of non-Newtonian fluid flow to simulate fracture propagation, fluid leak-off, and gel flowback processes to predict the oil production from a hydraulic fractured reservoir. Simulation results of the high-fidelity model show how fracture geometry, formation damage, and gel cleanup process varies with the fracturing fluid rheology. Therefore, the developed model is used to understand the effect of gel rheology on hydrocarbon production via a sensitivity analysis, which provides a set of rheological parameters that maximize the cumulative amount of oil production. Finally, utilizing this optimal high-viscosity gel, a model predictive controller is designed to obtain an optimal pumping schedule necessary for producing a target fracture geometry and proppant concentration. The closed-loop simulation results demonstrate that the obtained pumping schedule successfully achieved the desired fracture geometry and proppant concentration at the end of pumping, leading to the maximum oil production from an unconventional reservoir.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Bayesian Multi-fidelity Neural Network to Predict Nonlinear Frequency Backbone Curves

The use of structural mechanics models during the design process often leads to the development of models of varying fidelity. Often low-fidelity models are efficient to simulate but lack accuracy, while the high-fidelity counterparts are accurate with less efficiency. Here, this paper presents a multi-fidelity surrogate modeling approach that combines the accuracy of a high-fidelity finite element model with the efficiency of a low-fidelity model to train an even faster surrogate model that parameterizes the design space of interest. The objective of these models is to predict the nonlinear frequency backbone curves of the Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge benchmark structure which exhibits simultaneous nonlinearities from frictional contact and geometric nonlinearity. The surrogate model consists of an ensemble of neural networks that learn the mapping between low and high-fidelity data through nonlinear transformations. Bayesian neural networks are used to assess the surrogate model's uncertainty. Once trained, the multi-fidelity neural network is used to perform sensitivity analysis to assess the influence of the design parameters on the predicted backbone curves. Additionally, Bayesian calibration is performed to update the input parameter distributions to correlate the model parameters to the collection of experimentally measured backbone curves.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2011

Three-Dimensional Finite Element Ablative Thermal Response and Thermostructural Design of Thermal Protection Systems

A finite element ablation and thermal response program is presented for simulation of three-dimensional transient thermostructural analysis. The three-dimensional governing differential equations and finite element formulation are summarized. A novel probabilistic design methodology for thermal protection systems is presented. The design methodology is an eight step process beginning with a parameter sensitivity study and is followed by a deterministic analysis whereby an optimum design can determined. The design process concludes with a Monte Carlo simulation where the probabilities of exceeding design specifications are estimated. The design methodology is demonstrated by applying the methodology to the carbon phenolic compression pads of the Crew Exploration Vehicle. The maximum allowed values of bondline temperature and tensile stress are used as the design specifications in this study.

Dec, John A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Effect of Nondeterministic Parameters on Shock-Associated Noise Prediction Modeling

Engineering applications for aircraft noise prediction contain models for physical phenomenon that enable solutions to be computed quickly. These models contain parameters that have an uncertainty not accounted for in the solution. To include uncertainty in the solution, nondeterministic computational methods are applied. Using prediction models for supersonic jet broadband shock-associated noise, fixed model parameters are replaced by probability distributions to illustrate one of these methods. The results show the impact of using nondeterministic parameters both on estimating the model output uncertainty and on the model spectral level prediction. In addition, a global sensitivity analysis is used to determine the influence of the model parameters on the output, and to identify the parameters with the least influence on model output.

Dahl, Milo D.↗

NASA NTRS1975

An experimental and numerical investigation of shock-wave induced turbulent boundary-layer separation at hypersonic speeds

An experiment designed to test and guide computations of the interaction of an impinging shock wave with a turbulent boundary layer is described. Detailed mean flow-field and surface data are presented for two shock strengths which resulted in attached and separated flows, respectively. Numerical computations, employing the complete time-averaged Navier-Stokes equations along with algebraic eddy-viscosity and turbulent Prandtl number models to describe shear stress and heat flux, are used to illustrate the dependence of the computations on the particulars of the turbulence models. Models appropriate for zero-pressure-gradient flows predicted the overall features of the flow fields, but were deficient in predicting many of the details of the interaction regions. Improvements to the turbulence model parameters were sought through a combination of detailed data analysis and computer simulations which tested the sensitivity of the solutions to model parameter changes. Computer simulations using these improvements are presented and discussed.

Marvin, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS1975

An experimental and numerical investigation of shock wave induced turbulent boundary layer separation at hypersonic speeds

A thoroughly documented experiment is reported that was specifically designed to test and guide computations of the interaction of an impinging shock wave with a turbulent boundary layer. Detailed mean flow field and surface data are presented for two shock strengths which resulted in attached and separated flows, respectively. Numerical computations are used to illustrate the dependence of the computations on the particulars of the turbulence models. Models appropriate for zero pressure gradient flows predicted the overall features of the flow fields, but were deficient in predicting many of the details of the interaction regions. Improvements to the turbulence model parameters were sought through a combination of detailed data analysis and computer simulations which tested the sensitivity of the solutions to model parameter changes. Computer simulations using these improvements are presented and discussed.

Marvin, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Finite Element Model Calibration Approach for Area I-X

Ares I-X is a pathfinder vehicle concept under development by NASA to demonstrate a new class of launch vehicles. Although this vehicle is essentially a shell of what the Ares I vehicle will be, efforts are underway to model and calibrate the analytical models before its maiden flight. Work reported in this document will summarize the model calibration approach used including uncertainty quantification of vehicle responses and the use of non-conventional boundary conditions during component testing. Since finite element modeling is the primary modeling tool, the calibration process uses these models, often developed by different groups, to assess model deficiencies and to update parameters to reconcile test with predictions. Data for two major component tests and the flight vehicle are presented along with the calibration results. For calibration, sensitivity analysis is conducted using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). To reduce the computational burden associated with ANOVA calculations, response surface models are used in lieu of computationally intensive finite element solutions. From the sensitivity studies, parameter importance is assessed as a function of frequency. In addition, the work presents an approach to evaluate the probability that a parameter set exists to reconcile test with analysis. Comparisons of pretest predictions of frequency response uncertainty bounds with measured data, results from the variance-based sensitivity analysis, and results from component test models with calibrated boundary stiffness models are all presented.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Finite Element Model Calibration Approach for Ares I-X

Ares I-X is a pathfinder vehicle concept under development by NASA to demonstrate a new class of launch vehicles. Although this vehicle is essentially a shell of what the Ares I vehicle will be, efforts are underway to model and calibrate the analytical models before its maiden flight. Work reported in this document will summarize the model calibration approach used including uncertainty quantification of vehicle responses and the use of nonconventional boundary conditions during component testing. Since finite element modeling is the primary modeling tool, the calibration process uses these models, often developed by different groups, to assess model deficiencies and to update parameters to reconcile test with predictions. Data for two major component tests and the flight vehicle are presented along with the calibration results. For calibration, sensitivity analysis is conducted using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). To reduce the computational burden associated with ANOVA calculations, response surface models are used in lieu of computationally intensive finite element solutions. From the sensitivity studies, parameter importance is assessed as a function of frequency. In addition, the work presents an approach to evaluate the probability that a parameter set exists to reconcile test with analysis. Comparisons of pre-test predictions of frequency response uncertainty bounds with measured data, results from the variance-based sensitivity analysis, and results from component test models with calibrated boundary stiffness models are all presented.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

NASA NTRS1993

An adjoint sensitivity study of blocking in a two-layer isentropic model

This paper presents a new methodology for adjoint sensitivity analysis, previously developed in general terms by Cacuci, into a form directly applicable 10 meteorological problems. This technique is illustrated by examining the sensitivity of a blocking index in a two-layer isentropic model. The index represents a response function for the sensitivity analysis that unlike previous meteorological applications, is an operator and not a functional, and thus extends the scope of adjoint sensitivity to general operator-type responses depending on time and/or space. The sensitivity of the blocking index to perturbations introduced into the model atmosphere, as well as to model parameters, is discussed. The methodology of generalized adjoint sensitivity analysis described in this paper constitutes a prototype for further applications in the atmospheric and/or oceanic sciences.

Zou, X.↗

NASA NTRS1994

An evaluation with the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) of which land-surface parameters are of greatest importance in atmospheric modeling

Land-surface parameterizations based on a statistical-dynamical have been suggested recently to improve the representation of the surface forcing from heterogeneous land in atmospheric models. With this approach, land-surface characteristics are prescribed by probability density functions (PDFs) rather than single 'representative' values as in 'big-leaf' parameterizations. Yet the use of many PDFs results in an increased computational burden and requires the complex problem of representing covariances between PDFs to be addressed. In this study, a sensitivity analysis of a land-surface parameterization for atmospheric modeling was performed to evaluate the surface parameters most important to the variability of surface heat fluxes. The Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) used for this analysis determines the relative contribution of individual input parameters to the variance of energy fluxes resulting from a heterogeneous surface. By simultaneously varying all parameters according to their individual probability density functions, the number of computations needed is very much reduced by this technique. This analysis demonstrates that most of the variability of surface heat fluxes may be described by the distributions of relative stomatal conductance and surface roughness. Thus, the statistical-dynamical approach may be simplified by the use of only these two probability density functions.

Collins, Dan C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis in Process-Structure-Property Simulations for Laser Powder Bed Fusion Additive Manufacturing

Process variations and process-induced defects like porosity cause significant uncertainty in the microstructure and mechanical behavior of additively manufactured metals. Establishing process-structure-property (PSP) relationships and quantifying uncertainty using experiments alone is costly, especially for structural applications where mechanical allowables must be established for qualification and certification. This work presents a PSP simulation framework for laser powder bed fusion with a focus on uncertainty quantification through probabilistic calibration and multi-fidelity uncertainty propagation. Motivated by phenomenological input parameters related to grain nucleation and growth that are difficult to characterize, a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is completed. Through GSA, the most important input parameters are identified based on their influence on the statistical distributions of microstructural metrics that influence mechanical behavior, including grain size, morphology, and crystallographic texture. The results provide insight on what experiments are necessary to quantify and control PSP uncertainties, particularly those associated with the more challenging input parameters.

additive manufacturing↗

NASA NTRS1974

NASTRAN variance analysis and plotting of HBDY elements

The NASTRAN Thermal Analyzer has been intended to do variance analysis and plot the thermal boundary elements. The objective of the variance analysis addition is to assess the sensitivity of temperature variances resulting from uncertainties inherent in input parameters for heat conduction analysis. The plotting capability provides the ability to check the geometry (location, size and orientation) of the boundary elements of a model in relation to the conduction elements. Variance analysis is the study of uncertainties of the computed results as a function of uncertainties of the input data. To study this problem using NASTRAN, a solution is made for both the expected values of all inputs, plus another solution for each uncertain variable. A variance analysis module subtracts the results to form derivatives, and then can determine the expected deviations of output quantities.

Harder, R. L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Identification of Distribution of Elastic Constants of SiC/SiC Braided Tubes

There has been considerable interest in chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) manufactured silicon carbide fiber and silicon carbide matrix (SiCf/SiCm) composite tubes due to their superior mechanical properties. There are many parameters in the manufacturing of SiCf/SiCm composite tubes such as elastic constants of constituent SiC fiber and SiC matrix, braiding angle, porosity, and others whose values vary over a range. A sensitivity analysis will be carried out to determine the dominant parameters among the abovementioned ones. We intend to determine the variability in elastic constants of SiCf/SiCm composite tubes considering the variability in dominant parameters. A chosen number of combinations of dominant variables will be sampled through Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. The elastic constants of composite tube namely Young's moduli in circumferential and longitudinal direction, Poisson's ratio and shear modulus will be calculated at sampled points through finite element (FE) analysis. A polynomial response surface (PRS) will be built for each of the elastic constants to be used a surrogate to FE analysis. once the predictive accuracy of PRS is verified at the validation set of data points, the PRS will be invoked 105 times in Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). The variability can be calculated based on MCS-generated data which will be presented at the conference.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cost‐benefit assessment framework for robotics‐driven inspection of floating offshore wind farms

Abstract Operations and maintenance (O&M) of floating offshore wind farms (FOWFs) poses various challenges in terms of greater distances from the shore, harsher weather conditions, and restricted mobility options. Robotic systems have the potential to automate some parts of the O&M leading to continuous feature‐rich data acquisition, operational efficiency, along with health and safety improvements. There remains a gap in assessing the techno‐economic feasibility of robotics in the FOWF sector. This paper investigates the costs and benefits of incorporating robotics into the O&M of a FOWF. A bottom‐up cost model is used to estimate the costs for a proposed multi‐robot platform (MRP). The MRP houses unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and remotely operated vehicle (ROV) to conduct the inspection of specific FOWF components. Emphasis is laid on the most conducive O&M activities for robotization and the associated technical and cost aspects. The simulation is conducted in Windfarm Operations and Maintenance cost‐Benefit Analysis Tool (WOMBAT), where the metrics of incurred operational expenditure (OPEX) and the inspection time are calculated and compared with those of a baseline case consisting of crew transfer vessels, rope‐access technicians, and divers. Results show that the MRP can reduce the inspection time incurred, but this reduction has dependency on the efficacy of the robotic system and the associated parameterization e.g., cost elements and the inspection rates. Conversely, the increased MRP day rate results in a higher annualized OPEX. Residual risk is calculated to assess the net benefit of incorporating the MRP. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted to find the key parameters influencing the OPEX and the inspection time variation. A key output of this work is a robust and realistic framework which can be used for the cost‐benefit assessment of future MRP systems for specific FOWF activities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A computational investigation of high-flux, plate-and-frame membrane modules for industrial carbon capture

In this work, we study the application of membrane-based separation systems for carbon capture, considering plate-and-frame membrane modules. The successful deployment of membrane CO 2 capture system relies on high-performing membranes as well as effective membrane modules that can fully exploit the developed membranes. A plate-and-frame membrane module is especially attractive for CO 2 capture from industrial flue gas due to its lower pressure drop compared to its counterparts such as spiral wound modules and hollow fiber modules. To design better plate-and-frame modules, we investigate their basic unit - a single membrane stack through a combination of computational modeling and experimental investigations. The modeling approach is based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to represent a multiphysics problem, including the fluid flow and diffusion processes within a membrane module. We use experimental data collected under different operating conditions to validate the CFD model. Numerical results suggest a good agreement between experiments and model outputs for the CO 2 recovery, CO 2 mole fraction in the retentate and permeate, and stage-cut. The CFD model is able to predict accurately the flow behavior, providing valuable insights on the effects of fluid dynamics on mass transfer of CO 2 . We also carry out a sensitivity analysis to identify the effect of key parameters on the CO 2 recovery and the CO 2 purity of the outlet streams.

CFD simulation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Switching-cycle-based Startup for Grid-connected Inverters

Conventional inverter startups, or grid synchronization, are hindered by slow dynamics and inrush current issues, which impede the integration of more renewable energy resources into the power grid. This paper overcomes the barriers by introducing a novel switching cycle-based startup approach for grid-connected inverters, eliminating the need for voltage sensors and phase-locked loops (PLLs). The proposed method surpasses the bandwidth constraints of traditional PLL-based techniques and achieves grid synchronization in just two switching cycles. Relying solely on sensed three-phase currents, synchronization is accomplished without inrush currents or the need for additional hardware or increased software complexity, resulting in a faster inverter startup. The paper also presents a sensitivity analysis to discuss the impact of critical parameters on the method's accuracy. As a result, the effectiveness of the proposed technique is demonstrated through simulation and experimental results.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

CFD modeling of high-flux plate-and-frame membrane modules for industrial carbon capture

In this work, we study the application of membrane-based separation systems for carbon capture, considering plate-and-frame membrane modules. The successful deployment of membrane CO2 capture system relies on high-performing membranes as well as effective membrane modules that can fully exploit the developed membranes. A plate-and-frame membrane module is especially attractive for CO2 capture from industrial flue gas due to its lower pressure drop compared to its counterparts such as spiral wound modules and hollow fiber modules. To design better plate-and-frame modules, we investigate their basic unit - a single membrane stack through a combination of computational modeling and experimental investigations. The modeling approach is based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to represent a multiphysics problem, including the fluid flow and diffusion processes within a membrane module. We use experimental data collected under different operating conditions to validate the CFD model. Numerical results suggest a good agreement between experiments and model outputs for the CO2 recovery, CO2 mole fraction in the retentate and permeate, and stage-cut. The CFD model is able to predict accurately the flow behavior, providing valuable insights on the effects of fluid dynamics on mass transfer of CO2. We also carry out a sensitivity analysis to identify the effect of key parameters on the CO2 recovery and the CO2 purity of the outlet streams.

Dosso, Cheick↗

DOE OSTI2025

Examination of Factors Affecting the Cost and Performance of a Natural Gas Combined Cycle Equipped with Carbon Dioxide Capture

The purpose of this Technical Note is to report the findings of an examination of the effect of plausible deviations in select study assumptions on the reported cost and performance estimates for a power plant case drawn from NETL’s “Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity” (known as the Fossil Energy Baseline). An F-Class NGCC power plant equipped with state-of-the-art, solvent-based, post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO2) capture (95 percent carbon capture rate)—designated as Case B31B.95—was selected for this work. This sensitivity analysis provides insight into the effects of parameter variations within and across selected categories—ambient conditions, construction cost, natural gas (NG) price, capacity factor, and finance—on the plant performance and capital and operating and maintenance (O&M) costs, and the subsequent impact on common figures of merit.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗