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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Near-Surface Variables in the RUC Land Surface Model in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

In this study, we investigate the parametric sensitivity of near-surface variables, such as sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, ground heat flux, hub-height wind speed and land surface temperature, to the parameters used in the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) during a wintertime and summertime period. The model simulations are compared with observations collected from the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) field campaign. The results suggest that parameters related to snow/ice and thermal processes can have significant impact on the simulated near-surface variables. Out of the 11 examined parameters, only 6 of them have considerable influences on the model behaviors and explain about 60 ~ 80 % of the estimated total variance of the simulated variables. In addition, the magnitude of the parametric sensitivity varies with season. For instance, parameters associated with snow/ice processes are dominant during the wintertime whereas those associated with thermal processes are more important during the summertime. Furthermore, the impact of the identified parameters on the simulated variables is highly related to the topography. There is a high degree of sensitivity to the parameter values over the slope region. This points out the importance of collecting field observations over steep areas to better quantity the appropriate values of key parameters. Overall, our findings provide a better understanding of the RUC LSM behavior associated with parameter uncertainties and can be used to improve the forecasting skill of land surface processes via calibration of the most uncertain model parameters.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC) for Improved Computational Simulation Credibility

Accurate material characterization and model calibration are pivotal for simulations used for high-consequence engineering decisions. Current characterization and calibration methods (1) use simplified test specimen geometries and global data, (2) cannot guarantee that sufficient characterization data is collected for a specific model of interest, (3) provide only mean parameter values with no uncertainty quantification, and (4) are sequential, inflexible, and time-consuming. This work developed a new paradigm—coined Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC)—which drives forward the state-of-the-art in model calibration by bringing together recent advancements into one improved workflow. The ICC paradigm (1) employs tools to efficiently use full-field data to calibrate high-fidelity material models, (2) aligns the data needed with the data collected by adopting an optimal experimental design protocol, (3) provides uncertainty metrics on the calibrated model parameters, and (4) incorporates these advances into a quasi real-time feedback loop. The ICC framework was validated synthetically with both low-fidelity and high-fidelity simulations paired with several different elastoplastic material models, and was also demonstrated experimentally with an aluminum 6061 cruciform exemplar specimen. Results showed that the ICC framework—in which Bayesian optimal experimental design actively guided the experiment— resulted in calibrations with similar or better accuracy than predetermined experiments based on subject matter expertise. Moreover, the ICC framework produced a complete model calibration— with quantified uncertainties on model parameters—in 1 week, a 5 - 10× increase in efficiency over traditional approaches. Thus, the ICC paradigm improves both the calibration process and quality, by (1) improving efficiency, which increases agility of solid mechanics modeling and enables utilization of computational simulation (CompSim) at earlier stages of the design cycle and (2) providing quantified, and in some cases reduced, parameter uncertainties, which increases confidence in model predictions and supports credible decision making.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physics-constrained fault diagnosis framework for monitoring a multi-component thermal hydraulic system

A method for diagnosing faults includes receiving a system description of a thermal hydraulic system, the system description indicating a plurality of components and sensors. The method also includes constructing, based on physical conservations laws and using the system description, a plurality of physics-based models for the plurality of components, each of the plurality of physics-based models including unknown parameters. The method further includes receiving historical measurements and calibrating the physics-based models by calculating the unknown parameters of each of the physics-based models using the historical measurements to produce calibrated models. The method also includes receiving sensor measurements of the sensors, and calculating residuals corresponding to differences between measurements predicted by the plurality of calibrated models and the sensor measurements. The method also includes determining, based on the calculated residuals, a fault of a component or a sensor, and generating an alert indicating the fault.

Nguyen, Tat Nghia↗
DOE OSTI2022

SEGUE-2: Old Milky Way Stars Near and Far

The Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration 2 (SEGUE-2) obtained 128,288 low-resolution spectra (R ~ 1800) of 118,958 unique stars in the first year of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III (2008–2009). SEGUE-2 targeted prioritized distant halo tracers (blue horizontal-branch stars, K giants, and M giants) and metal-poor or kinematically hot populations. The main goal of SEGUE-2 was to target stars in the distant halo and measure their kinematics and chemical abundances to learn about the formation and evolution of the Milky Way. We present the SEGUE-2 field placement and target selection strategies. We discuss the success rate of the targeting based on the SEGUE-2 spectra and other spectroscopic and astrometric surveys. We describe the final SEGUE-2/SDSS-III improvements to the stellar parameter determinations based on the SEGUE Stellar Parameter Pipeline. We report a (g - i) color-effective temperature relation calibrated to the IRFM. We evaluate the accuracy and uncertainties associated with these stellar parameters by comparing with fundamental parameters, a sample of high-resolution spectra of SEGUE stars analyzed homogeneously, stars in well-studied clusters, and stars observed in common by the APOGEE survey. The final SEGUE spectra, calibration data, and derived parameters described here were released in SDSS-III Data Release 9 and continue to be included in all subsequent SDSS Data Releases. Because of its faint limiting magnitude and emphasis on the distant halo, the public SEGUE-2 data remain an important resource for the spectroscopy of stars in the Milky Way.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Monitoring water quality in the lower Kansas River using remote sensing

Abstract We demonstrate how to combine remote sensing data from satellite imagery (Sentinel‐2) with in situ water quality gauging (USGS Super Gages and the Gybe hyperspectral radiometer) to create spatially dense maps of water quality parameters (chlorophyll‐a concentration, turbidity, and nitrate plus nitrite concentration) along the lower Kansas River. The water quality maps are created using locally tuned models of the target water quality parameters, and this study describes the steps used to design, calibrate, and validate the empirical correlations. Water quality parameters such as chlorophyll‐a concentration are correlated with well‐studied absorption and scattering features in the visible spectrum (roughly 400–700 nm). Nutrients (such as nitrate plus nitrite concentration) lack strong absorption features in the visible spectrum, and in those cases we describe a novel surrogate data modeling approach that identifies overlapping water parcels between the in situ gauging and the remote sensing imagery. Measurements from the overlapping water parcels yield excellent correlations () for the target water quality parameters for limited windows of time (or limited sections of river reaches). Examples are provided illustrating how the water quality maps can be used to track river inputs from ungauged sources (such as creeks), or reveal the mixing patterns at the confluences.

Tufillaro, Nicholas↗
DOE OSTI2023

Benchmarking magnetised three-wave coupling for laser backscattering: analytic solutions and kinetic simulations

Understanding magnetised laser–plasma interactions is important for controlling magneto-inertial fusion experiments and developing magnetically assisted radiation and particle sources. For nanosecond pulses at non-relativistic intensities, interactions are dominated by coherent three-wave interactions, whose nonlinear coupling coefficients became known only recently when waves propagate at oblique angles with the magnetic field. In this paper, backscattering coupling coefficients predicted by warm-fluid theory are benchmarked using particle-in-cell simulations in one spatial dimension, and excellent agreements are found for a wide range of plasma temperatures, magnetic field strengths and laser propagation angles, when the interactions are mediated by electron-dominant hybrid waves. Systematic comparisons between theory and simulations are made possible by a rigorous protocol. On the theory side, the initial boundary value problem of linearised three-wave equations is solved, and the transient-time solutions allow the effects of growth and damping to be distinguished. On the simulation side, parameters are carefully chosen and calibration runs are performed to ensure that comparisons are well controlled. Fitting simulation data to analytical solutions yields numerical growth rates that match theory predictions within error bars. Although warm-fluid theory is found to be valid for a wide parameter range, genuine kinetic effects have also been observed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of the CISNET Colorectal Cancer Models

Purpose To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)'s SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.Methods We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANNs) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.Results The optimal ANN for SimCRC had 4 hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had 1 hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 h for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.Conclusions Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, such as the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating 3 realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.

artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constitutive Model Development for Aging Polymer Encapsulants (ASC P&EM FY2021 L2 Milestone 7836)

This SAND report fulfills the completion requirements for the ASC Physics and Engineering Modeling Level 2 Milestone 7836 during Fiscal Year 2021. The Sandia Simplified potential energy clock (SPEC) non-linear viscoelastic constitutive model was developed to predict a whole host of polymer glass physical behaviors in order to provide a tool to assess the effects of stress on these materials over their lifecycle. Polymer glasses are used extensively in applications such as electronics packaging, where encapsulants and adhesives can be critical to device performance. In this work, the focus is on assessing the performance of the model in predicting material evolution associated with long-term physical aging, an area that the model has not been fully vetted in. These predictions are key to utilizing models to help demonstrate electronics packaging component reliability over decades long service lives, a task that is very costly and time consuming to execute experimentally. The initiating hypothesis for the work was that a model calibration process can be defined that enables confidence in physical aging predictions under ND relevant environments and timescales without sacrificing other predictive capabilities. To test the hypothesis, an extensive suite of calibration and aging data was assembled from a combination of prior work and collaborating projects (Aging and Lifetimes as well as the DoD Joint Munitions Program) for two mission relevant epoxy encapsulants, 828DGEBA/DEA and 828DGEBA/T403. Multiple model calibration processes were developed and evaluated against the entire set of data for each material. A qualitative assessment of each calibration's ability to predict the wide range of aging responses was key to ranking the calibrations against each other. During this evaluation, predictions that were identified as non-physical, i.e., demonstrated something that was qualitatively different than known material behavior, were heavily weighted against the calibration performance. Thus, unphysical predictions for one aspect of aging response could generate a lower overall rating for a calibration process even if that process generated better quantitative predictions for another aspect of aging response. This insurance that all predictions are qualitatively correct is important to the overall aim of utilizing the model to predict residual stress evolution, which will depend on the interplay amongst the different material aging responses. The DSC-focused calibration procedure generated the best all-around aging predictions for both materials, demonstrating material models that can qualitatively predict the whole host of different physical aging responses that have been measured. This step forward in predictive capability comes from an unanticipated source, utilization of calorimetry measurements to specify model parameters. The DSC-focused calibration technique performed better than compression-focused techniques that more heavily weigh measurements more closely related to the structural responses to be predicted. Indeed, the DSC-focused calibration procedure was only possible due to recent incorporation of the enthalpy and heat capacity features into SPEC that was newly verified during this L2 milestone. Fundamentally similar aspects of the two material model calibrations as well as parametric studies to assess sensitives of the aging predictions are discussed within the report. A perspective on the next steps to the overall goal of residual stress evolution predictions under stockpile conditions closes the report.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying multiple synergistic factors on the susceptibility to stress relaxation cracking in variously heat-treated weldments

The 347H austenitic stainless steel has been widely used for pressure vessels and pipeline (PVP) applications due to its excellent creep and corrosion resistance, which fit ideally to the harsh conditions in petrochemical industries, fossil fuel or nuclear power plants, and modern energy storages. However, a failure mode has been commonly observed with cracks emerging at the heat affected zone (HAZ) of weldments during post-weld heat treatment (PWHT) or under intermediate to high temperature service conditions. This phenomenon is termed as Stress Relaxation Cracking (SRC) since the purpose of PWHT is to relieve the welding-induced residual stress fields, or as Stress Age Cracking (SAC) if failure happens during service. A leading literature explanation of this failure suggests that the residual stress relaxation and the precipitation dissolution and/or re-precipitation occur in the same temperature range, which can lead to locally high strains and thus to crack at the grain boundaries. Since in situ spatial measurements of residual stress fields, microstructural evolution, and failure processes are nearly infeasible, this work recourses to a micromechanical finite element framework that models the high temperature failure as the nucleation and growth of grain boundary cavities, whereas various parameters such as thermomechanical loading history and its evolution, the competition of grain-interior dislocation creep and grain-boundary diffusion in failure lifetime, and microstructural heterogeneities (such as the precipitate free zone near grain boundaries) can be quantitatively incorporated. It can be concluded from these microstructure-explicit simulations that an accurate knowledge of residual stress evolution and a carefully calibrated set of material constitutive parameters are the essential prerequisites for lifetime predictions. The understanding of individual governing factors also leads to a mechanistic interpretation of the observed SRC susceptibility C-curves. In conclusion, these results suggest that the criticality of residual stress evolution, but not the precipitation-induced local strains, be the leading factor for SRC.

347H stainless steel weldments↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Comprehensive Calibration Framework for the Northwest River Forecast Center

We present a comprehensive framework developed by the Northwest River Forecast Center for calibrating hydrologically diverse basins. The framework includes models for snow, soil moisture, routing, channel loss, and consumptive use. Data inputs include a wide range of open-access datasets for meteorology, land use, topography, and land cover. The framework uses conceptual hydrologic models to handle basins with various hydrologic regimes including rain-driven and snowmelt-dominated basins. We also develop a flexible automatic calibration system that can handle numerous unobservable model parameters in a computationally efficient manner. A single-basin automatic calibration run can typically be completed on a modern laptop in under 10 min. We found that model performance metrics for this new approach match the quality of the NWRFC's previous labor-intensive manual calibrations. The model performance also rivals that of a state-of-the-art deep learning model at a fraction of the computational cost. This framework presents a new standard for the quality of calibrations possible with lumped conceptual hydrologic models, combining careful data curation, an objective calibration framework, and expert local knowledge. In addition, we have made software packages available for the entire suite of National Weather Service River Forecast System models, including SAC-SMA, SNOW-17, and Lag-K. These modern interfaces are intended to increase accessibility and facilitate future research.

Forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 3 results: Cosmology from galaxy clustering and weak lensing with HSC and SDSS using the emulator based halo model

We present cosmology results from a blinded joint analysis of cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy weak lensing, and projected galaxy clustering, measured from the Hyper Suprime-Cam three-year (HSC-Y3) shape catalog and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) DR11 spectroscopic galaxy catalog—a cosmology analysis. We define luminosity-cut, and therefore nearly volume-limited, samples of SDSS galaxies to serve as the tracers of w p and as the lens samples for Δ⁢Σ in three spectroscopic redshift bins spanning the range 0.15± and Δ⁢Σ measurements, we use a single sample of about seven million source galaxies over 416 deg 2 , selected from HSC-Y3 based on having photometric redshifts (photo-z) greater than 0.75. The deep, high-quality HSC-Y3 data enable significant detections of the Δ⁢Σ signals, with integrated signal-to-noise ratio S/N~24 in the range 3≤R/[ℎ –1 Mpc]≤30 over the three lens samples. ξ ± has S/N ~19 in the range 8' ≤$\theta$ ≤5⁢0' and 30' ≤$\theta$ ≤15⁢0' for ξ + and ξ – , respectively. For cosmological parameter inference, we use the dark emulator package, combined with a halo occupation distribution prescription for the relation between galaxies and halos, to model w p and Δ⁢Σ down to quasinonlinear scales, and we estimate cosmological parameters after marginalizing over nuisance parameters. In our baseline analysis we employ an uninformative flat prior of the residual photo-z error, given by Π⁡(Δz ph )=$U$⁡(–1,1), to model a residual bias in the mean redshift of HSC source galaxies. Comparing the relative lensing amplitudes for Δ⁢Σ in the three redshift bins and for ξ ± with the single HSC source galaxy sample allows us to calibrate the photo-z parameter Δ⁢z ph to the precision of σ⁡(Δ⁢z ph )≃0.09. With these methods, we obtain a robust constraint on the cosmological parameters for the flat Λ⁢CDM model: S 8 =σ 8 ⁢(Ω m /0.3) 0.5 =$0.763^{+0.040}_{–0.036}$, or the best-constrained parameter given by $S^{'}_{8}$ = σ 8 ⁢(Ω m /0.3) 0.22 =0.721±0.028, determined with about 4% fractional precision. Based on multidimensional tension metrics, HSC-Y3 data exhibits about 2.5σ tension with the cosmological constraint inferred by Planck for the Λ⁢CDM model, and hints at a nonzero residual photo-z bias implying that the true mean redshift of the HSC galaxies at z ≳0.75 is higher than that implied by the original photo-z estimates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Source scaling comparison and validation in Central Italy: data intensive direct S waves versus the sparse data coda envelope methodology

SUMMARY Robustness of source parameter estimates is a fundamental issue in understanding the relationships between small and large events; however, it is difficult to assess how much of the variability of the source parameters can be attributed to the physical source characteristics or to the uncertainties of the methods and data used to estimate the values. In this study, we apply the coda method by Mayeda et al. using the coda calibration tool (CCT), a freely available Java-based code (https://github.com/LLNL/coda-calibration-tool) to obtain a regional calibration for Central Italy for estimating stable source parameters. We demonstrate the power of the coda technique in this region and show that it provides the same robustness in source parameter estimation as a data-driven methodology [generalized inversion technique (GIT)], but with much fewer calibration events and stations. The Central Italy region is ideal for both GIT and coda approaches as it is characterized by high-quality data, including recent well-recorded seismic sequences such as L'Aquila (2009) and Amatrice–Norcia–Visso (2016–2017). This allows us to apply data-driven methods such as GIT and coda-based methods that require few, but high-quality data. The data set for GIT analysis includes ∼5000 earthquakes and more than 600 stations, while for coda analysis we used a small subset of 39 events spanning 3.5 < Mw < 6.33 and 14 well-distributed broad-band stations. For the common calibration events, as well as an additional 247 events (∼1.7 < Mw < ∼5.0) not used in either calibration, we find excellent agreement between GIT-derived and CCT-derived source spectra. This confirms the ability of the coda approach to obtain stable source parameters even with few calibration events and stations. Even reducing the coda calibration data set by 75 per cent, we found no appreciable degradation in performance. This validation of the coda calibration approach over a broad range of event size demonstrates that this procedure, once extended to other regions, represents a powerful tool for future routine applications to homogeneously evaluate robust source parameters on a national scale. Furthermore, the coda calibration procedure can homogenize the Mw estimates for small and large events without the necessity of introducing any conversion scale between narrow-band measures such as local magnitude (ML) and Mw, which has been shown to introduce significant bias.

Morasca, Paola (ORCID:0000000265254867)↗
DOE OSTI2021

The AGORA High-resolution Galaxy Simulations Comparison Project. III. Cosmological Zoom-in Simulation of a Milky Way–mass Halo

In this work, we present a suite of high-resolution cosmological zoom-in simulations to z = 4 of a 10 12 M⊙ halo at z = 0, obtained using seven contemporary astrophysical simulation codes (Art-I, Enzo, Ramses, Changa, Gadget-3, Gear, and Gizmo) widely used in the numerical galaxy formation community. The physics prescriptions for gas cooling and heating and star formation are the same as the ones used in our previous Assembling Galaxies of Resolved Anatomy (AGORA) disk comparison but now account for the effects of cosmological processes such as the expansion of the universe, intergalactic gas inflow, and the cosmic ultraviolet background radiation emitted by massive stars and quasars. In this work, we introduce the most careful comparison yet of galaxy formation simulations run by different code groups, together with a series of four calibration steps each of which is designed to reduce the number of tunable simulation parameters adopted in the final run. In the first two steps, we methodically calibrate the gas physics, such as cooling and heating, in simulations without star formation. In the third step, we seek agreement on the total stellar mass produced with the common star formation prescription used in the AGORA disk comparison, in stellar-feedback-free simulations. In the last calibration step, we activate stellar feedback, where each code group is asked to set the feedback prescription to as close to the most widely used one in its code community as possible, while aiming for convergence in the stellar mass at z = 4 to the values predicted by semiempirical models. After all the participating code groups successfully complete the calibration steps, we achieve a suite of cosmological simulations with similar mass assembly histories down to z = 4. With numerical accuracy that resolves the internal structure of a target halo (≲100 physical pc at z = 4), we find that the codes overall agree well with one another, e.g., in gas and stellar properties, but also show differences, e.g., in circumgalactic medium (CGM) properties. We argue that, if adequately tested in accordance with our proposed calibration steps and common parameters, high-resolution cosmological zoom-in simulations can have robust and reproducible results. New code groups are invited to join and enrich this comparison by generating equivalent models or to test the code's compatibility on their own, by adopting the common initial conditions, the common easy-to-implement physics package, and the proposed calibration steps. Further analyses of the zoom-in simulations presented here will be presented in forthcoming reports from the AGORA Collaboration, including studies of the CGM, simulations by additional codes, and results at lower redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulating energy performance of buildings: a study using eQUEST and Energy Star ® portfolio manager

Commercial buildings consume significant energy in the United States and exhibit high potential for energy use reduction through retrofits. Benchmarking and energy simulation are well established tools in the industry to identify potential improvements and measure performance. Analysis to identify most sensitive retrofit parameters to energy performance can optimize investment and available energy savings. Presented study demonstrates methodology using a static model to determine sensitivity of building design and retrofit parameters with respect to energy performance. Calibrated simulation energy models (eQUEST) of two distribution centers (A, B) are presented. A fractional factorial analysis is conducted on retrofit parameters of efficiency measures targeting the highest energy consumers, and the results are benchmarked using Energy Star® Portfolio Manager. A custom Microsoft Excel® based simulation model is created to simulate occupancy levels, lighting, plug loads, and other equipment used in various spaces throughout the day. For Building A, efficient lighting was the most influential parameter for energy savings, carbon savings and benchmarking score; whereas, for Building B, HVAC efficiency was most influential for energy and demand controlled ventilation and economizers was most influential for benchmarking score. While retrofit projects can save energy and carbon emissions, variation in source-site ratios and state grid emissions, benchmarking scores may not always reflect equivalent improvement. State grid emissions factors, natural gas composition are difficult to model and hence not considered in this study. In conclusion, the synergistic analysis presented, emphasizes the importance of benchmarking and efficiency retrofits in promoting sustainable building practices to reduce energy consumption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model certainty in cellular network-driven processes with missing data

Mathematical models are often used to explore network-driven cellular processes from a systems perspective. However, a dearth of quantitative data suitable for model calibration leads to models with parameter unidentifiability and questionable predictive power. Here we introduce a combined Bayesian and Machine Learning Measurement Model approach to explore how quantitative and non-quantitative data constrain models of apoptosis execution within a missing data context. We find model prediction accuracy and certainty strongly depend on rigorous data-driven formulations of the measurement, and the size and make-up of the datasets. For instance, two orders of magnitude more ordinal (e.g., immunoblot) data are necessary to achieve accuracy comparable to quantitative (e.g., fluorescence) data for calibration of an apoptosis execution model. Notably, ordinal and nominal (e.g., cell fate observations) non-quantitative data synergize to reduce model uncertainty and improve accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a data-driven Measurement Model approach to identify model features that could lead to informative experimental measurements and improve model predictive power.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparative Analysis of Thrombin Calibration Algorithms and Correction for Thrombin-α2macroglobulin Activity

Background: The thrombin generation (TG) test is useful for characterizing global hemostasis potential, but fluorescence substrate artifacts, such as thrombin-α2macroglobulin (T-α2MG) signal, inner filter effect (IFE), substrate consumption, and calibration algorithms have been suggested as sources of intra- and inter-laboratory variance, which may limit its clinical utility. Methods: Effects of internal vs. external normalization, IFE and T-α2MG on TG curves in normal plasma supplemented with coagulation factors, thrombomodulin, and tissue factor were studied using the Calibrated Automated Thrombinography (CAT; Diagnostica Stago, Parsippany, NJ, USA) and in-house software. Results: The various calibration methods demonstrated no significant difference in producing TG curves, nor increased the robustness of the TG assay. Several TG parameters, including thrombin peak height (TPH), produced from internal linear calibration did not differ significantly from uncalibrated TG parameters. Further, TPH values from internal linear and nonlinear calibration with or without T-α2MG correction correlated well with TPH from external calibration. Higher coefficients of variation (CVs) for TPH values were observed in both platelet-free and platelet-rich plasma with added thrombomodulin. Conclusions: Our work suggests minimal differences between distinct computational approaches toward calibrating and correcting fluorescence signals into TG levels, with most samples returning similar or equivalent TPH results.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗