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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Localized Geomagnetic Disturbances in Global MHD: Physics and Numerics

One of the prominent effects of space weather is the formation of rapid geomagnetic field variations on Earth's surface driven by the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. These geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) cause geomagnetically induced currents to run through ground conducting systems. In particular, localized GMDs (LGMDs) can be high amplitude and can have an effect on scale sizes less than 100 km, making them hazardous to power grids and difficult to predict. In this study, we examine the ability of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to reproduce LGMDs in the 7 September 2017 event using both existing and new metrics to quantify the success of the model against observation. We show that the high-resolution SWMF can reproduce LGMDs driven by ionospheric sources, but struggles to reproduce LGMDs driven by substorm effects. We calculate the global maxima of the magnetic fluctuations to show instances when the SWMF captures LGMDs at the correct times but not the correct locations. To remedy these shortcomings we suggest model developments that will directly impact the ability of the SWMF to reproduce LGMDs, most importantly updating the ionospheric conductance calculation from empirical to physics-based.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tracing the Rain Formation Pathways in Numerical Simulations of Deep Convection

Quantifying the microphysical process contributions to surface precipitation in numerical simulations can be challenging. This is due to the fact that many microphysical processes contribute to the formation and depletion of rain drops and there is almost always a spatial/temporal mismatch between where/when rain is formed and where/when it strikes the surface. In this work, we develop a tracing method that tracks the sources and sinks of raindrop mass and number as they are advected by the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Applying the method to an idealized squall line confirms that convective precipitation is dominated by warm rain processes (autoconversion and accretion) while stratiform precipitation is dominated by the melting of rimed and unrimed ice crystals. Sensitivity experiments in which the prescribed cloud drop number concentration is increased confirm the conventional wisdom that weakened autoconversion increases the fraction of raindrops originating from cold rain processes. The method also reveals that when applied to deep convection the Khairoutdinov and Kogan autoconversion scheme produces an excessive number of raindrops which are subsequently clipped in P3 microphysics to keep the rain size distribution within prescribed limits. This problem can mostly be mitigated by increasing the assumed radius for raindrops created by autoconversion.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning Forecasts of Rare Stratospheric Transitions from Short Simulations

Abstract Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other winter, the boreal stratospheric polar vortex rapidly breaks down, shifting midlatitude surface weather patterns for months. We focus on two key quantities of interest: the probability of an SSW occurring, and the expected lead time if it does occur, as functions of initial condition. These optimal forecasts concretely measure the event’s progress. Direct numerical simulation can estimate them in principle but is prohibitively expensive in practice: each rare event requires a long integration to observe, and the cost of each integration grows with model complexity. We describe an alternative approach using integrations that are short compared to the time scale of the warming event. We compute the probability and lead time efficiently by solving equations involving the transition operator, which encodes all information about the dynamics. We relate these optimal forecasts to a small number of interpretable physical variables, suggesting optimal measurements for forecasting. We illustrate the methodology on a prototype SSW model developed by Holton and Mass and modified by stochastic forcing. While highly idealized, this model captures the essential nonlinear dynamics of SSWs and exhibits the key forecasting challenge: the dramatic separation in time scales between a single event and the return time between successive events. Our methodology is designed to fully exploit high-dimensional data from models and observations, and has the potential to identify detailed predictors of many complex rare events in meteorology.

Finkel, Justin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lidar-Based Evaluation of HRRR Performance in California’s Diablo Range

The performance of the NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model for capturing low-level winds near a wind energy production site during summer 2019 is evaluated. This study catalogs the ability of HRRR to predict boundary layer dynamics relevant to wind energy interests over complex terrain, which has presented challenges for weather and energy forecasting. Performance is evaluated by comparing HRRR output to wind-profiling Doppler lidars at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Site 300. HRRR captured the diurnal profile of horizontal winds in the observed 150-m layer, despite strong underpredictions (∼4 m s −1 ) during evening and nighttime hours. These underpredictions may be a result of local speedup flows observed by the lidars, which were unresolved in HRRR due to their small spatial extent. HRRR bias magnitude relative to observations was found to be minimal during days with synoptic-scale troughs and strong 850-hPa geopotential gradients, while bias magnitude was maximal during days with synoptic ridging and weak 850-hPa geopotential gradients. To translate wind speed predictions to energy forecasting, generic turbine models were used to estimate power generation for turbines characteristic of the nearby Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area. Results show that HRRR-based energy estimates predicted daytime power generation adequately relative to lidar-based estimates with an 18-h lead time (bias magnitude < 0.4 MW from 0900 to 1400 LT) but overpredicted power during the rest of the diurnal cycle (bias > 1 MW). These results demonstrate conditions under which HRRR performs well for wind energy applications in complex terrain, while highlighting biases that require further investigation to support usage of a high-resolution model for wind energy forecasts.

Boundary layer↗
DOE OSTI2023

A novel transfer learning framework for sorghum biomass prediction using UAV-based remote sensing data and genetic markers

Yield for biofuel crops is measured in terms of biomass, so measurements throughout the growing season are crucial in breeding programs, yet traditionally time- and labor-consuming since they involve destructive sampling. Modern remote sensing platforms, such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), can carry multiple sensors and collect numerous phenotypic traits with efficient, non-invasive field surveys. However, modeling the complex relationships between the observed phenotypic traits and biomass remains a challenging task, as the ground reference data are very limited for each genotype in the breeding experiment. In this study, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) model is proposed for sorghum biomass prediction. The architecture is designed to exploit the time series remote sensing and weather data, as well as static genotypic information. As a large number of features have been derived from the remote sensing data, feature importance analysis is conducted to identify and remove redundant features. A strategy to extract representative information from high-dimensional genetic markers is proposed. To enhance generalization and minimize the need for ground reference data, transfer learning strategies are proposed for selecting the most informative training samples from the target domain. Consequently, a pre-trained model can be refined with limited training samples. Field experiments were conducted over a sorghum breeding trial planted in multiple years with more than 600 testcross hybrids. The results show that the proposed LSTM-based RNN model can achieve high accuracies for single year prediction. Further, with the proposed transfer learning strategies, a pre-trained model can be refined with limited training samples from the target domain and predict biomass with an accuracy comparable to that from a trained-from-scratch model for both multiple experiments within a given year and across multiple years.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Best Practices for the Validation of U.S. Offshore Wind Resource Models

This report presents a comprehensive set of best practices for working with both modeled and measured US offshore wind resource data sets. We specifically target two key questions in this report. First, what are the best data sources and methods for validating modeled wind resource estimates? Second, what are the best methods for vertically extrapolating near-surface wind speed measurements to heights that span the rotor-swept area of modern offshore wind turbines?

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Idealized simulations of wind farm interactions with intermittent turbulence in stable boundary layer conditions

Stable atmospheric boundary layer conditions typically correspond to weak turbulence levels, but intermittent periods of elevated turbulence can occur during otherwise quiescent conditions. The interaction between intermittent turbulence and wind turbines is not well understood because of sparse observations, as well as the difficulty in realistically resolving small-scale turbulence during strongly stable conditions with numerical simulations. In this study, an explicit filtering and reconstruction approach for large-eddy simulation (LES) is used to simulate weakly and strongly stable conditions, with surface cooling rates of −0.2 and −2.0 K h −1 , respectively. This approach can sustain resolved background turbulence at relatively coarse grid spacing and stronger stratification compared to conventional closures, permitting more realistic intermittent stable boundary layer (SBL) turbulence. The idealized LES capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model is employed with turbine rotors parameterized using generalized actuator disks to examine (1) how the presence of turbine wakes affects SBL evolution and (2) the effect of intermittent turbulence on power production and wake recovery. Wakes increase mixing and deepen the SBL, with a stronger effect under strongly stable conditions, primarily because the SBL is shallower and closer to the top of the wind turbine rotor layer. Intermittent turbulence does not have a significant impact on mean power generation and wake recovery because the relevant intermittent turbulent structures in this study only affect the bottom half of the rotor disk. Power production is, however, more variable during periods of elevated turbulence, demonstrating the impact of SBL intermittency. This study uses an idealized configuration, focusing on LES model performance and physical understanding, with the goal of informing future simulations of the conditions observed during the American Wake Experiment.

Energy - Wind↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Moving-Wave Implementation in WRF to Study the Impact of Surface Water Waves on the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Abstract While numerous modeling studies have focused on the interaction of ocean surface waves with the atmospheric boundary layer, most employ idealized waves that are either monochromatic or synthetically generated from a theoretical wave spectrum, and the atmospheric solvers are typically incompressible. To study wind–wave coupling in real-world scenarios, a model that can simulate both realistic meteorological and wave conditions is necessary. In this paper we describe the implementation of a moving bottom boundary condition into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for large-eddy simulation applications. We first describe the moving bottom boundary conditions within WRF’s pressure-based vertical coordinate system. We then validate our code with idealized test cases that have analytical solutions, including flow over a monochromatic wave with and without viscosity. Finally, we present results from turbulent flows over a moving monochromatic wave with different wave ages, and demonstrate satisfactory agreement of the wave growth rate with results from the literature. We also compare atmospheric stress and wind parameters from two physically equivalent cases. The first specifies a wind moving in the same direction as a propagating wave, while the second involves a stationary wave with the wind adjusted such that the wind relative to the wave is the same as in the first case. Results indicate that the velocity and Reynolds stress profiles for the two cases match, further validating the moving bottom implementation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Updraft Width Implications for Cumulonimbus Growth in a Moist Marine Environment

Abstract An idealized large-eddy simulation of a tropical marine cloud population was performed. At any time, it contained hundreds of clouds, and updraft width in shallow convection emerging from a subcloud layer appeared to be an important indicator of whether specific convective elements deepened. In an environment with 80%–90% relative humidity below the 0°C level, updrafts that penetrated the 0°C level were larger at and above cloud base, which occurred at the lifting condensation level near 600 m. Parcels rising in these updrafts appeared to emerge from boundary layer eddies that averaged ∼200 m wider than those in clouds that only reached 1.5–3 km height. The deeply ascending parcels (growers) possessed statistically similar values of effective buoyancy below the level of free convection (LFC) as parcels that began to ascend in a cloud but stopped before reaching 3000 m (nongrowers). The growers also experienced less dilution above the LFC. Nongrowers were characterized by negative effective buoyancy and rapid deceleration above the LFC, while growers continued to accelerate well above the LFC. Growers occurred in areas with a greater magnitude of background convergence (or weaker divergence) in the subcloud layer, especially between 300 m and cloud base, but whether the convergence actually led to eddy widening is unclear. Significance Statement Cumulonimbus clouds are responsible for many extreme weather phenomena and are important contributors to Earth’s energy balance. However, the processes leading to the growth of individual clouds are not completely understood nor well-represented in weather prediction models. We find that the clouds containing updrafts that start out wider at early stages of their life cycles grow taller, possibly because they are protected more from drier air outside the cloud than narrow clouds. In addition, this work shows how the initial width of clouds might be related to convergence in the lowest part of the atmosphere, at heights where clouds initially develop. However, meteorologists must be careful not to overinterpret these results because numerical simulations inherently include assumptions that may not reflect reality. This reinforces the need to also observe processes occurring at the scales of individual clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recursive Blind Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation and Consumer Load for Microgrids

Existing forecasting frameworks that predict time-series photovoltaic (PV) generation and consumer load for micro-grids' operation and control assume near-continuous availability of real-time predictors from the field. The incoming data are used to periodically re-train the models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. This paper bridges the shortcoming by leveraging a previously proposed forecasting framework that is resilient to abrupt changes in data quality caused by communication losses. Assuming no availability of real-time field system data, which is typical in extreme weather events such as hurricanes, the framework uses lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance, ambient temperature, PV power, and consumer load for three horizon windows: 24 hours, 12 hours, and 1 hour. Four types of ensemble-based regression trees-simple gradient boosted trees (GBR), GBR with an adaptive component (A-GBR), random forests (RF), and extra trees (ExTR)-are leveraged and their performances are compared against a simple historical weekly mean. Numerical results show that A-GBR performs better on average by 32% for 24-hour horizon and 39% for 12-hour horizon, whereas ExTR outdoes the other models on average by 10% for 1-hour horizon.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗
DOE OSTI2025

A GPU‐Based Ocean Dynamical Core for Routine Mesoscale‐Resolving Climate Simulations

Abstract We describe an ocean hydrostatic dynamical core implemented in Oceananigans optimized for Graphical Processing Unit (GPU) architectures. On 64 A100 GPUs, equivalent to 16 computational nodes in current state‐of‐the‐art supercomputers, our dynamical core can simulate a decade of near‐global ocean dynamics per wall‐clock day at an 8‐km horizontal resolution; a resolution adequate to resolve the ocean's mesoscale eddy field. Such efficiency, achieved with relatively modest hardware resources, suggests that climate simulations on GPUs can incorporate fully eddy‐resolving ocean models. This removes a major source of systematic bias in current IPCC coupled model projections, the parameterization of ocean eddies, and represents a major advance in climate modeling. We discuss the computational strategies, focusing on GPU‐specific optimization and numerical implementation details that enable such high performance.

Silvestri, Simone [Massachusetts Institute of Tech↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Turbulence and Dispersion in Multiscale Atmospheric Simulations over Complex Urban Terrain during the Joint Urban 2003 Field Campaign

Abstract This paper evaluates the representation of turbulence and its effect on transport and dispersion within multiscale and microscale-only simulations in an urban environment. These simulations, run using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the addition of an immersed boundary method, predict transport and mixing during a controlled tracer release from the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. This work extends the results of a recent study through analysis of turbulence kinetic energy and turbulence spectra and their role in accurately simulating wind speed, direction, and tracer concentration. The significance and role of surface heat fluxes and use of the cell perturbation method in the numerical simulation setup are also examined. Our previous study detailed the model development necessary for our multiscale simulations, examined model skill at predicting wind speeds and tracer concentrations, and demonstrated that dynamic downscaling from mesoscale to microscale through a sequence of nested simulations can improve predictions of transport and dispersion relative to a microscale-only simulation forced by idealized meteorology. Here, predictions are compared with observations to assess qualitative agreement and statistical model skill at predicting wind speed, wind direction, tracer concentration, and turbulent kinetic energy at locations throughout the city. We also investigate the scale distribution of turbulence and the associated impact on model skill, particularly for predictions of transport and dispersion. Our results show that downscaled large-scale turbulence, which is unique to the multiscale simulations, significantly improves predictions of tracer concentrations in this complex urban environment. Significance Statement Simulations of atmospheric transport and mixing in urban environments have many applications, including pollution modeling for urban planning or informing emergency response following a hazardous release. These applications include phenomena with spatial scales spanning from millimeters to kilometers. Most simulations resolve flow only within the urban area of interest, omitting larger scales of turbulence and regional influences. This study examines a method that resolves both the small and large-scale flow features. We evaluate simulation accuracy by comparing predictions with observations from an experiment involving the release of a tracer gas in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, with emphasis on correctly modeling turbulent fluctuations. Our results demonstrate the importance of resolving large-scale flow features when predicting transport and dispersion in urban environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Importance of ice nucleation and precipitation on climate with the Parameterization of Unified Microphysics Across Scales version 1 (PUMASv1)

Cloud microphysics is critical for weather and climate prediction. In this work, we document updates and corrections to the cloud microphysical scheme used in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and other models. These updates include a new nomenclature for the scheme, now called Parameterization of Unified Microphysics Across Scales (PUMAS), and the ability to run the scheme on graphics processing units (GPUs). The main science changes include refactoring an ice number limiter and associated changes to ice nucleation, adding vapor deposition onto snow, and introducing an implicit numerical treatment for sedimentation. We also detail the improvements in computational performance that can be achieved with GPU acceleration. We then show the impact of these scheme changes on the (a) mean state climate, (b) cloud feedback response to warming, and (c) aerosol forcing. We find that corrections are needed to the immersion freezing parameterization and that ice nucleation has important impacts on climate. We also find that the revised scheme produces less cloud liquid and ice but that this can be adjusted by changing the loss process for cloud liquid (autoconversion). Furthermore, there are few discernible effects of the PUMAS changes on cloud feedbacks but some reductions in the magnitude of aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). Small cloud feedback changes appear to be related to the implicit sedimentation scheme, with a number of factors affecting ACIs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

WRF-Comfort: simulating microscale variability in outdoor heat stress at the city scale with a mesoscale model

Abstract. Urban overheating and its ongoing exacerbation due to global warming and urban development lead to increased exposure to urban heat and increased thermal discomfort and heat stress. To quantify thermal stress, specific indices have been proposed that depend on air temperature, mean radiant temperature (MRT), wind speed, and relative humidity. While temperature and humidity vary on scales of hundreds of meters, MRT and wind speed are strongly affected by individual buildings and trees and vary on the meter scale. Therefore, most numerical thermal comfort studies apply microscale models to limited spatial domains (commonly representing urban neighborhoods with building blocks) with resolutions on the order of 1 m and a few hours of simulation. This prevents the analysis of the impact of city-scale adaptation and/or mitigation strategies on thermal stress and comfort. To solve this problem, we develop a methodology to estimate thermal stress indicators and their subgrid variability in mesoscale models – here applied to the multilayer urban canopy parameterization BEP-BEM within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The new scheme (consisting of three main steps) can readily assess intra-neighborhood-scale heat stress distributions across whole cities and for timescales of minutes to years. The first key component of the approach is the estimation of MRT in several locations within streets for different street orientations. Second, mean wind speed and its subgrid variability are downscaled as a function of the local urban morphology based on relations derived from a set of microscale LES and RANS simulations across a wide range of realistic and idealized urban morphologies. Lastly, we compute the distributions of two thermal stress indices for each grid square, combining all the subgrid values of MRT, wind speed, air temperature, and absolute humidity. From these distributions, we quantify the high and low tails of the heat stress distribution in each grid square across the city, representing the thermal diversity experienced in street canyons. In this contribution, we present the core methodology as well as simulation results for Madrid (Spain), which illustrate strong differences between heat stress indices and common heat metrics like air or surface temperature both across the city and over the diurnal cycle.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the effectiveness of neural operators at zero-shot weather downscaling

Machine-learning (ML) methods have shown great potential for weather downscaling. These data-driven approaches provide a more efficient alternative for producing high-resolution weather datasets and forecasts compared to physics-based numerical simulations. Neural operators, which learn solution operators for a family of partial differential equations, have shown great success in scientific ML applications involving physics-driven datasets. Neural operators are grid-resolution-invariant and are often evaluated on higher grid resolutions than they are trained on, i.e., zero-shot super-resolution. Given their promising zero-shot super-resolution performance on dynamical systems emulation, we present a critical investigation of their zero-shot weather downscaling capabilities, which is when models are tasked with producing high-resolution outputs using higher upsampling factors than are seen during training. To this end, we create two realistic downscaling experiments with challenging upsampling factors (e.g., 8x and 15x) across data from different simulations: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit. While neural operator-based downscaling models perform better than interpolation and a simple convolutional baseline, we show the surprising performance of an approach that combines a powerful transformer-based model with parameter-free interpolation at zero-shot weather downscaling. We find that this Swin-Transformer-based approach mostly outperforms models with neural operator layers in terms of average error metrics, whereas an Enhanced Super-Resolution Generative Adversarial Network-based approach is better than most models in terms of capturing the physics of the ground truth data. We suggest their use in future work as strong baselines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The role of equatorial waves in triggering precipitation extremes in the Maritime Continent

This review offers a comprehensive analysis of convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) and their pivotal role in driving precipitation extremes across the Maritime Continent. It examines the current understanding of CCEWs, evaluates the performance of numerical models and forecasting techniques in predicting these phenomena, and pinpoints critical areas for improvement. The discussion centers on three key types of equatorial waves: equatorial Rossby waves, Kelvin waves, and mixed Rossby–gravity waves. By connecting scientific insights with practical forecasting applications, the review sheds light on the challenges of predicting these waves while identifying opportunities to advance both fundamental knowledge and forecasting accuracy. Designed as an educational resource, it targets operational forecasting centers, meteorologists, and researchers, aiming to enhance the prediction of extreme weather events in the region.

Maritime Continent↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy efficiency and thermal resilience analysis for row houses using representative building energy models

Row houses, a prevalent medium-density urban archetype, were popularized during industrial era to accommodate the working class in the U.S. cities. Today, many of these structures are deteriorating, exacerbating the energy cost for residents with limited economic resources. Moreover, many households that lack Air Conditioning (AC) are vulnerable to extreme summer heat, an issue expected to worsen in the future. Energy-efficient retrofits can help mitigate these challenges. However, current literature provides limited insight into how existing building energy codes impact the energy efficiency and thermal resilience of row houses in current and future weather scenarios. This study provides a detailed method to address this gap by employing calibrated representative energy models of row houses as a baseline, and evaluating the annual energy savings and summertime thermal safety improvements from code compliant retrofits under current and future typical weather conditions. Using Baltimore City as a case study, results show that under current weather, retrofitting row houses yields significant energy savings along with notable thermal resilience improvements. The end unit row house realizes higher energy savings, whereas the interior unit experiences greater thermal resilience improvement after retrofitting. In future, retrofitted row houses can still save energy, but residents will face numerous hours of fatal indoor temperatures without AC in summer. Additionally, findings reveal stark zone-wise variations in thermal safety, and elevated humidity risks in certain zones post-retrofit, emphasizing the need for zonal retrofit strategies and better natural ventilation strategies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing power system restoration with damaged communications

Utility procedures for power system blackstart and restoration typically assume that energization decisions can be reliably communicated across the grid. In reality, the communications and control network would likely also be affected in power outages, such as those caused by extreme weather events or cyber-attacks. This paper studies the effect of damage to the power system communications and control infrastructure on restoration operations following a blackout. We model the communications infrastructure as a graph, overlaying the power grid, and imposing the requirement that every energized element in the power grid be observable from a control center. We expand on a specialized branch-and-bound algorithm from the literature to optimize the restoration process and devise an initialization heuristic and a rounding heuristic to improve solution speed. We perform numerical experiments on synthetic systems for Illinois and Texas with outages based on a solar flare or hurricane. We compare the results of our specialized branch-and-bound algorithm to the results from (i) the initialization heuristic alone, (ii) a variation of this heuristic that we use as a baseline, and (iii) the restoration optimization for the power system without communications constraints. Here, we find that damage to the communications infrastructure significantly increases the time required to re-energize the grid. Moreover, by simultaneously optimizing communications repairs and grid energization decisions, we are able to re-energize the grid significantly faster than if communications repairs and energization decisions were made independently or with partial coordination, motivating improvements to current industry practice.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗