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At least 307 records · Page 17

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NASA NTRS2017

The Sensitivity of Ground-Reflected GNSS Signals to Near-Surface Soil Moisture, as Recorded by Spaceborne Receivers

Spatial and temporal variations in near-surface soil moisture are important to measure for climate studies, numerical weather forecasts, and drought monitoring. Several previous studies have shown success in using ground-reflected Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals as a form of bistatic radar to sense soil moisture. However, the ability of this type of data to sense soil moisture variations from space is still a nascent field of study. In the past two years, three satellites have been launched that were either designed to capture ground-reflected GNSS signals or have been modified to record these signals. The data provided by these satellites are giving scientists an unprecedented opportunity to investigate their ability to detect changes in Earth’s land surface, including but certainly not limited to near-surface soil moisture. This paper will present spaceborne observations of ground-reflected GNSS signals and evaluate their sensitivity to near-surface soil moisture. This sensitivity will be compared to empirical and theoretical sensitivities of monostatic L-band radar measurements to soil moisture. We will also comment on possibilities for retrieval algorithm development, using techniques employed for monostatic radar as a guide.

Chew, C.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation to Estimate Irrigation Water Use

Knowledge of irrigation is essential to support food security, manage depleting water resources, and comprehensively understand the global water and energy cycles. Despite the importance of understanding irrigation, little consistent information exists on the amount of water that is applied for irrigation. In this study, we develop and evaluate a new method to predict daily to seasonal irrigation magnitude using a particle batch smoother data assimilation approach, where land surface model soil moisture is applied in different configurations to understand how characteristics of remotely sensed soil moisture may impact the performance of the method. The study employs a suite of synthetic data assimilation experiments, allowing for systematic diagnosis of known error sources. Assimilation of daily synthetic soil moisture observations with zero noise produces irrigation estimates with a seasonal bias of 0.66% and a correlation of 0.95 relative to a known truth irrigation. When synthetic observations were subjected to an irregular overpass interval and random noise similar to the Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite (0.04 cm(exp 3) cm(exp -3)), irrigation estimates produced a median seasonal bias of <1% and a correlation of 0.69. When systematic biases commensurate with those between NLDAS‐2 land surface models and Soil Moisture Active Passive are imposed, irrigation estimates show larger biases. In this application, the particle batch smoother outperformed the particle filter. The presented framework has the potential to provide new information into irrigation magnitude over spatially continuous domains, yet its broad applicability is contingent upon identifying new method(s) of determining irrigation schedule and correcting biases between observed and simulated soil moisture, as these errors markedly degraded performance.

R Abolafia-Rosenzweig↗

NASA NTRS2020

Soil Moisture as a Harbinger of Increased Forecast Reliability at Subseasonal Time Scales

The shape of the nonlinear relationship between evapotranspiration and soil moisture (the "ET-W relationship") helps control the evolution of soil moisture with time. Together, the shape of the relationship and the magnitude of the soil moisture anomaly at the beginning of a subseasonal forecast help determine whether a given anomaly will still be present at subseasonal leads, allowing it to contribute to skill in subseasonal temperature and precipitation prediction at those leads. In this study we examine subseasonal prediction in the context of soil moisture initialization using a suite of forecasts performed with the NASA GEOS seasonal forecast system. Large soil moisture anomalies are in fact found to be harbingers of increased skill in the subseasonal forecasts. Furthermore, accounting explicitly for the nonlinear shape of the ET-W relationship improves our ability to quantity the increase in forecast reliability associated with soil moisture initialization.

Koster, Randal↗

NASA NTRS2020

Exploring Spatiotemporal Relations Between Soil Moisture, Precipitation, and Streamflow for a Large Set of Watersheds Using Google Earth Engine

An understanding of streamflow variability and its response to changes in climate conditions is essential for water resource planning and management practices that will help to mitigate the impacts of extreme events such as floods and droughts on agriculture and other human activities. This study investigated the relationship between precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow over a wide range of watersheds across the United States using Google Earth Engine (GEE). The correlation analyses disclosed a strong association between precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow, however, soil moisture was found to have a higher correlation with the streamflow relative to precipitation. Results indicated different strength of the association depends on the watershed classes and lag times assessments. The perennial watersheds showed higher coherence compared to intermittent watersheds. Previous month precipitation and soil moisture have a stronger influence on the current month streamflow, particularly in the snow-dominated watersheds. Monthly streamflow forecasting models were developed using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The results showed that the SVM model generally performed better than the ARIMA model. Overall streamflow forecasting model performance varied considerably among watershed classes, and perennial watersheds tend to exhibit better predictably compared to intermittent watersheds due to lower streamflow variability. The SVM models with precipitation and streamflow inputs performed better than those with streamflow input only. Results indicated that the inclusion of antecedent root-zone soil moisture improved the streamflow forecasting in most of the watersheds, and the largest improvements occurred in the intermittent watersheds. In conclusion, this work demonstrated that knowing the relationship between precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow in different watershed classes will enhance the understanding of the hydrologic process and can be effectively utilized in improving streamflow forecasting for better satellite-based water resource management strategies.

Nazmus Sazib↗

NASA NTRS2021

Validation of SMAP L2 passive-only soil moisture products using upscaled in situ measurements collected in Twente, the Netherlands

The Twente region in the east of the Netherlands has a network with twenty soil monitoring stations that has been utilized for validation of the Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) passive-only soil moisture products. Over the period from April 2015 until December 2018, seven stations covered by the SMAP reference pixels 15 have fairly complete data records. Spatially distributed soil moisture simulations with the Dutch national hydrological model have been utilized for the development of upscaling functions to translate the spatial mean of point measurements to the domain of the SMAP reference pixels. The native and upscaled spatial soil moisture means computed using the in-situ measurements have been adopted as references to assess the performance of the SMAP i) Single Channel Algorithm at Horizontal Polarization (SCA-H), ii) Single Channel Algorithm at Vertical Polarization (SCA-V), and iii) Dual Channel Algorithm (DCA) soil moisture estimates. In the case of the Twente network it was found that the SCA-V soil moisture retrieved SMAP observations collected in the afternoon had the best agreement with the native spatial mean leading to an unbiased Root Mean Squared Error (uRMSE) of 0.059 m3 m-3, whereas for the upscaled in-situ references primarily larger biases were found. These error levels are larger than the mission’s target accuracy of 0.04 m3 m-3, which can be attributed to large over- and underestimation errors (>0.08 m3 m-3) in particular at the end of dry spells and during freezing, respectively. The strong vertical dielectric gradients associated with rapid soil freezing and wetting causes the disparity in soil depth characterized by SMAP and in situ that leads to the large mismatches. Once filtered for frozen conditions and antecedent rainfall the uRMSE improves to 0.043 m3 m-3.

Rogier van der Velde↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Impact of SMAP Soil Moisture Data Assimilation on the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

The role of soil moisture in the evolution of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land has long been recognized. Dry land surface conditions can lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions can help sustain or even re-intensify a TC. The ability to forecast post-landfall TC evolution and mitigate the associated socio-economic impact thus hinges on accurate knowledge of land surface conditions prior to landfall. The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission provides accurate observations of soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has been shown that the assimilation of SMAPbrightness temperatures (Tb) significantly improves modeled land surface states and thus has the potential to constrain land surface initial conditions in TC forecasts. In this presentation, we investigate this potential through an extensive set of Observing System Experiments that systematically assess the impact of assimilating SMAP Tbs on TC forecast skill in the Goddard Earth Observing System. Focusing on the case of TC Idai, we show that the assimilation of SMAP generally leads to a drier soil moisture analysis for the land surface underneath much of the storm’s circulation. An exception is the direct TC track, where SMAP assimilation increases soil moisture. These changes are reflected in the surface fluxes, which propagate the land surface state changes to the atmosphere. This results a TC that is overall weaker with lower winds, but with a better-defined eye and a slightly smaller track error than a simulation without SMAP DA. The changes in soil moisture resulting from the assimilation of SMAP also impact the total precipitation amounts as well as the precipitation structure associated with TC Idai.

SMAP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improved Peatland Hydrology and L-Band Microwave Radiative Transfer Modeling in Version 7 of the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Data Assimilation Product

SMAP↗

NASA NTRS2023

Considering Soil Moisture in Models of Climate Impacts on Child Health in Farming-Centric Countries

Soil moisture reflects the amount of water available to crops in the top layer of soil. As such, considering soil moisture provides important insight into water availability and ultimately crop yields in agricultural settings. In studies of climate change, food security, and health, however, soil moisture is rarely empirically considered despite its connection to crop health and yields. In this project, we aim to advance understanding of climate impacts on food security by incorporating soil moisture into quantitative models of child health. Combining spatially referenced health survey data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for 2005 and 2010 in Senegal and 2007, 2011, and 2014 in Bangladesh, with soil moisture data from the Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System, we explore the linkages between sub-annual and sub-seasonal climate conditions and child malnutrition in two rainfed agriculture dependent countries—Bangladesh and Senegal. Results suggest that soil moisture, measured on very short time scales, may be associated with reductions in anthropometric weight-for-height z-scores, but the relationship is highly dependent upon geographic context.

Child health↗

NASA NTRS2024

Deducing Land-Atmosphere Coupling Regimes from SMAP Soil Moisture

In recent years, there has been a growing recognition of the significance of Land-Atmosphere (L-A) interactions and feedback mechanisms in understanding and predicting Earth’s water and energy cycles. Soil moisture plays a critical role in mediating the strength of L-A interactions and is important for understanding the complex and governing processes across this interface. This study aims to identify the significance of soil moisture in identifying L-A coupling strength within the Convective Triggering Potential (CTP) and Humidity Index (HI) framework. To address this, a consistent and reliable dataset of atmospheric profiles is created by merging CTP and HI using Triple Collocation (TC) with three reanalysis datasets. The merged CTP and HI product demonstrates enhanced performance globally as compared to the individual datasets when validated with radiosonde and satellite observations. This merged product of CTP and HI is then used to compare the L-A coupling strength based on Soil Moisture Active Passive Level 3 (SMAPL3) and SMAP Level 4 (SMAPL4) over two decades (2003-2022) where L-A coupling strength is defined as the persistence probability within the dry and wet coupling regimes. Results indicate that the persistency-based coupling strength is related to the ability of soil moisture to predict future atmospheric humidity and dry vs. wet coupling state. The coupling strength in SMAPL4 is consistently stronger than in SMAPL3 and is likely due to its reliance on a land surface model and reduced susceptibility to random noise. The difference in coupling strength based on the same CTP-HI underscores the importance of soil moisture data in estimating coupling strength within the CTP-HI framework. These findings lay the groundwork for understanding the role of L-A interactions and drought evolution due to soil moisture variations, by providing insight into the quantification of coupling strength and its role in drought monitoring and forecast efforts.

Land-atmosphere coupling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of Soil Moisture Observations Over Land Improves Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of a tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. Dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land, whereas very wet conditions may lead to a prolonged maintenance of its intensity. While this relationship is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tbs significantly improves modeled land surface states. Here we evaluate: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP Tb observations. We find that in the analysis with SMAP assimilation, the TC has a better-defined, more aligned vertical structure over land relative to the control run; moreover, the analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, better matches the observed TC size. We further find significant reductions in the forecast intensity error and the forecast along-track error, measured against observations. The largest error reductions occur at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the land with its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability at this timescale. An investigation of the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation revealed that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions and an increased latent heat flux in the SMAP analysis, which results in a TC with higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the control analysis.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Version 8 of the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Data Assimilation Product

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides global, 9-km resolution, 3-hourly surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture from April 2015 to present with a mean latency of 2.5 days from the time of observation. The product is based on the assimilation of SMAP L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model as the model is driven with observations-based precipitation forcing. This presentation discusses the improvements in the forthcoming Version 8 of L4_SM, including updates in the precipitation forcing, the Catchment model parameters, and the L-band microwave radiative transfer model (mwRTM). The precipitation observations used in L4_SM Version 8 outside of North America and the high latitudes are from the latest (Version 7) NASA Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement mission (IMERG) products. Moreover, occasionally excessive precipitation rates in earlier versions of L4_SM along certain longitudes in North America were eliminated by a bug fix in the precipitation corrections algorithm. The Catchment model in L4_SM Version 8 uses climatological snow albedo values based on observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, replacing the look-up table parameterization of earlier versions. Additionally, corrected soil parameters were implemented for a small region in Argentina that had erroneously been classified as peat because of an error in the ancillary soil data. Finally, the mwRTM in L4_SM Version 8 uses the Mironov soil mixing approach and updated values of the L-band scattering albedo, soil roughness, and vegetation opacity climatology obtained from the latest (Release 19) SMAP Level-2 dual-channel soil moisture retrieval product. During the development of L4_SM Version 8, the change in the mwRTM parameterization resulted in a reduced unbiased RMSE of surface soil moisture when verified against in situ measurements. It also reduced the standard deviation of the Tb observation-minus-forecast residuals by ~0.15 K, highlighting the importance of the mwRTM for successful data assimilation. The bug fixes in the precipitation corrections algorithm and the Catchment model soil parameters in the Argentina region result in locally large improvements of the simulated land surface states. In summary, the ongoing refinements of the L4_SM product continue to improve its science quality and performance for global soil moisture monitoring

Rolf Reichle↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning-Driven Optimization of Building Enclosures for Moisture Durability and Thermal Performance

The design of moisture-durable building enclosures with low embodied carbon often involves an iterative process of selecting the materials for the specific exposure conditions to meet the performance requirements. While hygrothermal simulations are commonly used to evaluate moisture durability, they often require advanced expertise for proper implementation. Machine learning (ML) provides a promising alternative by streamlining the design process and minimizing the reliance on complex simulations. This study presents a machine learning-based approach for predicting moisture durability in residential wall assemblies. The ML model was trained to estimate the mold index and maximum moisture content of various layers under typical exposure conditions. The model achieved a high predictive accuracy, with a coefficient of determination (R²) exceeding 0.90 when compared to traditional hygrothermal simulations on materials that were not part of training the ML model. Building on these results, the ML model was developed into a practical tool for optimizing wall assembly designs. This tool allows users to automatically optimize material selections based on energy, moisture, and carbon performance criteria. By incorporating multi-objective optimization, the tool identifies configurations that minimize embodied carbon while maintaining moisture safety and code-compliant thermal performance. Additionally, it provides insights into how material choices influence assembly durability, energy efficiency, and carbon reduction. The tool will be implemented in the Building Science Advisor (BSA) to enhance its performance and provide more granularity on the results. This research highlights the potential for ML-driven tools to simplify the design of high-performance building enclosures, offering architects and engineers a faster, more efficient way to balance critical performance factors.

Salonvaara, Mikael [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000318991554)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Phosphonium‐Based Anion Exchange Polymers for Moisture Swing Direct Air Capture of Carbon Dioxide

This study explores the performance and stability of ammonium and phosphonium-based polymeric ionic liquids (PILs) with methyl and butyl substituents in moisture-swing direct air capture of CO 2 . The polymers are synthesized with chloride counterions, followed by ion exchange to the bicarbonate ion, and tests for CO 2 capture capacity and stability under cyclic wet–dry conditions. The phosphonium polymer with methyl substituents [PVBT-MeP] demonstrates the highest CO 2 capture capacity at ≈510 µmol g⁻¹, attributed to minimal steric hindrance and stronger ion pairing with bicarbonate. However, oxidative degradation is detected by 31 P NMR spectroscopy after the moisture swing experiment, with the appearance of a phosphine oxide peak at 61.28 ppm, which indicates phosphorus oxidation as the primary degradation pathway. In contrast, the ammonium polymer with butyl substituents [PVBT-BuN] exhibits the highest stability, showing no degradation over five moisture swing cycles. Additional stability experiments in 0.5 m KHCO 3 solutions reveal no degradation for any PIL, suggesting that oxidative degradation is driven by dynamic acid-base reactions during the moisture swing cycles in the air. Furthermore, these findings reveal the potential of phosphonium-based PILs for moisture-swing direct air capture, achieving high capacity while highlighting the need for optimized stability through counterion and structural design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the processes of soil moisture in regulating microbial and carbon-nitrogen cycling

Soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles and their complex responses to hydro-climatic forcing have gained increasing attention. While the temperature effects have been intensively studied, soil moisture response functions (SMRFs) are not well documented for various microbial and enzymatic processes due to the difficulties in directly measuring and differentiating the moisture effects on various processes. In this work we extended our C-only Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition (MEND) model to the C-N coupled MEND model with flexible element stoichiometry. Our model calibration showed good agreement between simulated and observed C:N ratios in soil organic matter and microbial biomass, as well as the ammonium and nitrate concentrations. We show that the selection of SMRFs for specific biogeochemical processes could result in significant differences in model simulated microbial and C-N processes. In particular, it is essential to account for the soil moisture effects on microbial dormancy and resuscitation, as the changes in microbial physiology under favorable or stressful conditions will exert strong controls on soil C and N dynamics. We also advocate the utilization of dynamic (time-variant) data (e.g., litter input, N deposition, soil temperature and moisture), instead of time-invariant data, to drive model simulations and analyses. Dynamic forcing data (particularly dynamic soil moisture) better represent the real-world climate and environmental conditions, which could facilitate more realistic modeling and understanding of soil C and nutrient cycling in a changing world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimization of the number and locations of the calibration stations needed to monitor soil moisture using distributed temperature sensing systems: A proof-of-concept study

The single-probe heat-pulse (SPHP) technique combined with the Fiber-optic Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) technology can offer novel high-resolution measurements of soil moisture (θ) over spatial scales ranging from several centimeters to several kilometers. However, the key limitation of this method is in obtaining the calibration relationship between θ and soil thermal conductivity (λ) across a specific field. In a previous study, a new methodology using a Gaussian processes model was presented to account for the spatial variability in the λ-θ relationship. The model aggregated θ measurements from soil moisture sensors scattered over the SPHP transect with the corresponding DTS λ measurements at their locations. In this study, a novel methodology is tested to optimize the number and locations of soil moisture sensors required to account for the spatial variability of the λ - θ relationship to achieve higher accuracy from the SPHP technique. The proposed methodology utilizes hierarchical clustering to analyze the information contained in the spatial structure of the SPHP measurements as the soil dries from a nearly-saturated condition. The proposed methodology was tested using data from a field in Oklahoma. Monte-Carlo simulation was performed to validate the performance of the proposed methodology. The predictions obtained from the proposed methodology resulted in θ measurements accuracy comparable to those obtained from the 10% best Monte-Carlo iterations of randomly assigned soil moisture locations. Further, this study demonstrates that the proposed methodology is more efficient than the traditional practice of randomly spreading calibration soil moisture sensors along the SPHP transect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Rheological effects of moisture content on the anatomical fractions of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda)

Here, this study focused on assessing the influence of moisture content on the rheological properties of different anatomical fractions of pine residue using the FT4 powder rheometer. Moisture content exhibited some influence on the 2 mm bark and needle fractions, increasing their cohesion, angle of internal friction, unconfined yield strength, and major principal stress. Stem and whole, on the other hand, presented minimal changes upon moisture introduction. All 4 mm fractions did not show many changes in their rheological properties with moisture introduction, which can be due to less particle-particle interactions and consequently reducing any liquid bridging the particles might undergo; however, they were shown to have a more unpredictable behavior compared to the 2 mm analogues (i.e., higher standard deviation) which can be due to a higher degree of particle-interlocking. Out of the three fractions, needle presented the poorest rheological properties for flowability in addition to being susceptible by moisture, unlike other fractions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hygroscopic Metal-Complex Coated Metal Foam for Moisture Management

Moisture management for improving indoor air quality is critical for health and thermal comfort. Recently, the use of desiccant-coated heat exchangers (HXs) has emerged as a promising dehumidification approach to reduce energy consumption as compared with conventional vapor compression-based air dehumidification. The desiccant material is a key component of dehumidification performance. However, currently used desiccant materials have a low moisture uptake capability and require a high temperature for regeneration. The current study investigated the dehumidification performance of a metal-complex-based hygroscopic desiccant-coated metal foam HX. Furthermore, the results revealed that the desiccant-coated foams display increased hydrophilicity compared with the uncoated metal surfaces. Additionally, the desiccant coating had superior moisture absorption capability of more than 2 g/g desiccant , which is much higher than commonly used zeolite and silica gels. Wind tunnel experiments showed that the coating absorbs moisture from humid air and can be effectively regenerated at low temperatures. Additionally, the coating did not increase the pressure drop of the HX. Overall, the results of this study suggest that this desiccant-coated metal form can potentially be used for moisture management in the building sector.

Atmospheric chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2023

Abrupt permafrost thaw drives spatially heterogeneous soil moisture and carbon dioxide fluxes in upland tundra

Permafrost thaw causes the seasonally thawed active layer to deepen, causing the Arctic to shift toward carbon release as soil organic matter becomes susceptible to decomposition. Ground subsidence initiated by ice loss can cause these soils to collapse abruptly, rapidly shifting soil moisture as microtopography changes and also accelerating carbon and nutrient mobilization. The uncertainty of soil moisture trajectories during thaw makes it difficult to predict the role of abrupt thaw in suppressing or exacerbating carbon losses. Here, in this study, we investigated the role of shifting soil moisture conditions on carbon dioxide fluxes during a 13-year permafrost warming experiment that exhibited abrupt thaw. Warming deepened the active layer differentially across treatments, leading to variable rates of subsidence and formation of thermokarst depressions. In turn, differential subsidence caused a gradient of moisture conditions, with some plots becoming consistently inundated with water within thermokarst depressions and others exhibiting generally dry, but more variable soil moisture conditions outside of thermokarst depressions. Experimentally induced permafrost thaw initially drove increasing rates of growing season gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R eco ), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (higher carbon uptake), but the formation of thermokarst depressions began to reverse this trend with a high level of spatial heterogeneity. Plots that subsided at the slowest rate stayed relatively dry and supported higher CO 2 fluxes throughout the 13-year experiment, while plots that subsided very rapidly into the center of a thermokarst feature became consistently wet and experienced a rapid decline in growing season GPP, R eco , and NEE (lower carbon uptake or carbon release). These findings indicate that Earth system models, which do not simulate subsidence and often predict drier active layer conditions, likely overestimate net growing season carbon uptake in abruptly thawing landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗