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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Career Development through Discreet Simulation Modeling - 19009

The cleanup mission of the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of River Protection (ORP) at the Hanford Site is to immobilize 212,000 m3 (56 million gallons) of nuclear waste, currently stored in 177 underground tanks, at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) and associated supplemental treatment facilities. Waste transfers to and from the WTP utilize the intricate Hanford Waste Feed Delivery (WFD) system, a network composed of: double-shell tanks (DSTs), single shell tanks (SSTs), the effluent treatment facility (ETF), a large number of pumps, valves, and leak detectors, and thousands of feet of underground transfer lines. This equipment must be prepared to safely and reliably transfer waste to the WTP. This study used discrete event simulation modeling to explore the behavior of the waste transfer system to identify areas of improvement. Two models and their subsequent results are presented: the Effluent Treatment Facility and the next-to-be-retrieved single-shell tanks (A/AX Farms). This study focused on identifying throughput bottlenecks, operational constraints, choke-point analysis, and redundancy in equipment, process design, and operational strategy. Analysis performed on the ETF OR Model indicated that the existing facility operation strategy will not result in a sufficient throughput to prevent WTP melter idling. Furthermore, in the absence of equipment failures, the facility was still shown to be unable to reach the required throughput to prevent melter idling. It is concluded that ETF system maintenance events are currently the main bottlenecks in the ETF facility. Analysis performed on the SST (A/AX) OR model indicate that the main drivers of the retrieval schedule are the hard retrieval start dates for each SST tank. In addition, it was concluded that operating the ventilation trains in parallel results in 15 times less retrieval interruptions and shortens the retrieval durations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extrapolating carbon dynamics of seasonally dry tropical forests across geographic scales and into future climates: improving simulation models with empirical observations. Final report

This research focused on seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs), a biome that exhibits strong variation in ecological, hydrological and physical characteristics. Climate change is expected to strongly impact the atmospheric environment of SDTFs, and long-term trends in precipitation seasonality have already been detected. The extent to which such changes in seasonal moisture availability will impact SDTF carbon dynamics is highly uncertain, and much of this uncertainty hinges on poorly-understood belowground processes. Thus, the central objectives of this research were to qualitatively and quantitatively describe how belowground processes mediate the response of SDTF carbon dynamics to environmental change. We accomplished these aims through field campaigns in four tropical countries to characterize soil biogeochemistry and plant hydraulic traits, ecosystem-scale field experiments that manipulated both nutrients and rainfall, and simulation modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Simulation Modeling for Reliable Biomass Supply Chain Design Under Operational Disruptions

Lignocellulosic biomass derived fuels and chemicals are a promising and sustainable supplement for petroleum-based products. Currently, the lignocellulosic biofuel industry relies on a conventional system where feedstock is harvested, baled, stored locally, and then delivered in a low-density format to the biorefinery. However, the conventional supply chain system causes operational disruptions at the biorefinery mainly due to seasonal availability, handling problems, and quality variability in biomass feedstock. Operational disruptions decrease facility uptime, production efficiencies, and increase maintenance costs. For a low-value high-volume product where margins are very tight, system disruptions are especially problematic. In this work we evaluate an advanced system strategy in which a network of biomass processing centers (depots) are utilized for storing and preprocessing biomass into stable, dense, and uniform material to reduce feedstock supply disruptions, and facility downtime in order to boost economic returns to the bioenergy industry. A database centric discrete event supply chain simulation model was developed, and the impact of operational disruptions on supply chain cost, inventory and production levels, farm metrics and facility metrics were evaluated. Three scenarios were evaluated for a 7-year time-period: (1) bale-delivery scenario with biorefinery uptime varying from 20 to 85%; (2) pellet-delivery scenario with depot uptime varying from 20 to 85% and biorefinery uptime at 85%; and (3) pellet-delivery scenario with depot and biorefinery uptime at 85%. In scenarios 1 and 2, tonnage discarded at the field edge could be reduced by increasing uptime at facility, contracting fewer farms at the beginning and subsequently increasing contracts as facility uptime increases, or determining alternative corn stover markets. Harvest cost was the biggest contributor to the average delivered costs and inventory levels were dependent on facility uptimes. We found a cascading effect of failure propagating through the system from depot to biorefinery. Therefore, mitigating risk at a facility level is not enough and conducting a system-level reliability simulation incorporating failure dependencies among subsystems is critical.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Aerosol Lidar Ratios Over Ocean using MODIS AOD Constrained Retrievals and GOCART Model Simulations

After 17 years, the NASA Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission ceased science operations in August 2023. For the final CALIPSO data products release (Version 5), the CALIPSO project seeks to improve the accuracy of its aerosol extinction by advancing knowledge of aerosol lidar ratios (i.e., extinction-to-backscatter ratios; LRs) for various aerosol types. The current algorithm assigns one LR value globally for each of the seven tropospheric aerosol types. The CALIPSO team aims to improve the retrieval algorithm through the development of regional and seasonal LR climatologies for the same aerosol types. In this study, aerosol LRs are inferred through Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) backscatter profiles constrained by collocated aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data over oceans during daytime. This analysis is subsampled for those profiles that are cloud-free and contain only one CALIOP-classified aerosol type. The CALIOP profiles are then collocated with aerosol volume fractions obtained through Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulations. This presentation will reveal findings that the 12-year (June 2006-August 2018) mean spatial distributions of inferred aerosol LRs for CALIOP-classified marine and dusty marine aerosols correspond inversely with patterns of GOCART sea salt volume fraction (SSVF). For example, smaller SSVFs (< 65%) and larger LRs (> 55 sr), are found near land masses (Fig. 1). This indicates the influence of advected anthropogenic aerosols (e.g., pollution and biomass burning smoke). In the remote oceans (i.e., regions likely less impacted by non-sea salt aerosols), the SSVFs are larger (> 95%) and the LRs are smaller (< 25 sr) (Fig. 1). A polynomial fit of the MODIS AOD constrained LRs to the corresponding GOCART SSVFs (intersect values of ~58 sr for SSVF of 0% and ~21 sr for SSVF of 100%) is further used to produce model-assisted climatological LR maps on seasonal scales. Additionally, we will show results of a LR validation analysis for which we compare the revised CALIPSO AODs obtained by applying the seasonal/regional constrained LRs against CALIPSO Version 4.51 Ocean Derived Column Optical Depth (ODCOD). While the majority of the presentation will focus on LRs for CALIOP-classified marine and dusty marine aerosols, an overview of LR results will show preliminary results for other aerosol types over ocean, such as dust and elevated smoke. The technique demon-strated in this study highlights the benefits not only to the final planned CALIPSO data release in 2025, but similar methods can be applied to future spaceborne elastic backscatter lidars with collocated passive sensors (e.g., such as those associated with NASA’s proposed Atmosphere Observing System).

Travis D Toth↗
NASA NTRS1989

Optical laboratory solution and error model simulation of a linear time-varying finite element equation

The use of simplified error models to accurately simulate and evaluate the performance of an optical linear-algebra processor is described. The optical architecture used to perform banded matrix-vector products is reviewed, along with a linear dynamic finite-element case study. The laboratory hardware and ac-modulation technique used are presented. The individual processor error-source models and their simulator implementation are detailed. Several significant simplifications are introduced to ease the computational requirements and complexity of the simulations. The error models are verified with a laboratory implementation of the processor, and are used to evaluate its potential performance.

Taylor, B. K.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Investigation of Turbulent Entrainment-Mixing Processes With a New Particle-Resolved Direct Numerical Simulation Model

Here, a new particle-resolved three dimensional direct numerical simulation (DNS) model is developed that combines Lagrangian droplet tracking with the Eulerian field representation of turbulence near the Kolmogorov microscale. Six numerical experiments are performed to investigate the processes of entrainment of clear air and subsequent mixing with cloudy air and their interactions with cloud microphysics. The experiments are designed to represent different combinations of three configurations of initial cloudy area and two turbulence modes (decaying and forced turbulence). Five existing measures of microphysical homogeneous mixing degree are examined, modified, and compared in terms of their ability as a unifying measure to represent the effect of various entrainment-mixing mechanisms on cloud microphysics. Also examined and compared are the conventional Damköhler number and transition scale number as a dynamical measure of different mixing mechanisms. Relationships between the various microphysical measures and dynamical measures are investigated in search for a unified parameterization of entrainment-mixing processes. The results show that even with the same cloud water fraction, the thermodynamic and microphysical properties are different, especially for the decaying cases. Further analysis confirms that despite the detailed differences in cloud properties among the six simulation scenarios, the variety of turbulent entrainment-mixing mechanisms can be reasonably represented with power-law relationships between the microphysical homogeneous mixing degrees and the dynamical measures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Overview and Description of Models, Simulations and Climate Diagnostics

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) consists of a series of timeslice experiments targeting the long-term changes in atmospheric composition between 1850 and 2100, with the goal of documenting radiative forcing and the associated composition changes. Here we introduce the various simulations performed under ACCMIP and the associated model output. The ACCMIP models have a wide range of horizontal and vertical resolutions, vertical extent, chemistry schemes and interaction with radiation and clouds. While anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions were specified for all time slices in the ACCMIP protocol, it is found that the natural emissions lead to a significant range in emissions, mostly for ozone precursors. The analysis of selected present-day climate diagnostics (precipitation, temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind) reveals biases consistent with state-of-the-art climate models. The model-to-model comparison of changes in temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind between 1850 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2100 indicates mostly consistent results, but with outliers different enough to possibly affect their representation of climate impact on chemistry.

(ACCMIP)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Graph-Based Similarity Metrics for Comparing Simulation Model Causal Structures

The causal structure of a simulation is a major determinant of both its character and behavior, yet most methods we use to compare simulations focus only on simulation outputs. We introduce a method that combines graphical representation with information theoretic metrics to quantitatively compare the causal structures of models. The method applies to agent-based simulations as well as system dynamics models and facilitates comparison within and between types. Comparing models based on their causal structures can illuminate differences in assumptions made by the models, allowing modelers to (1) better situate their models in the context of existing work, including highlighting novelty, (2) explicitly compare conceptual theory and assumptions to simulated theory and assumptions, and (3) investigate potential causal drivers of divergent behavior between models. We demonstrate the method by comparing two epidemiology models at different levels of aggregation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Temperature and precipitation extremes in century-long gridded observations, reanalyses, and atmospheric model simulations

Knowledge about long-term changes in climate extremes is vital to better understand multidecadal climate variability and long-term changes and to place today's extreme events in a historical context. While global changes in temperature and precipitation extremes since the midtwentieth century are well studied, knowledge about century-scale changes is limited. This paper analyses a range of largely independent observations-based data sets covering 1901–2010 for long-term changes and interannual variability in daily scale temperature and precipitation extremes. We compare across data sets for consistency to ascertain our confidence in century-scale changes in extremes. We find consistent warming trends in temperature extremes globally and in most land areas over the past century. For precipitation extremes we find global tendencies toward more intense rainfall throughout much of the twentieth century; however, local changes are spatially more variable. While global time series of the different data sets agree well after about 1950, they often show different changes during the first half of the twentieth century. In regions with good observational coverage, gridded observations and reanalyses agree well throughout the entire past century. Finally, simulations with an atmospheric model suggest that ocean temperatures and sea ice may explain up to about 50% of interannual variability in the global average of temperature extremes, and about 15% in the global average of moderate precipitation extremes, but local correlations are mostly significant only in low latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Development of a Discrete Event Simulation Model for Pyroprocessing Safeguardability

Advanced nuclear energy systems offer benefits for energy sustainability, independence, security, economic growth, and carbon emission reduction. Nuclear fuel fabricated for these systems utilize remotely-handled facilities for batch processing in hot cells. Because special nuclear material is in both different physical and chemical form than that of the contemporary fuel cycle, new challenges arise in terms of safeguardability. To that end, we are developing a system model for a commercial pyroprocessing facility that can also produce quantitative metrics to assess facility design. This paper presents the progress of a first build of a material throughput model using discrete event simulation for the fuel fabrication subsystem. The intent is to study the Type I error, or false alarm, as a metric for safeguardability. Initiating events that could cause false alarms arise from safeguards, safety, and security. False alarms can necessitate a facility shutdown until the anomaly is resolved by facility inspection. A high number would be costly for the facility operator both in terms of operation throughput goals and possible compensatory penalties. Therefore, different conceptual facility designs exhibit different frequencies for the false alarm per initiating event, and this can provide a measure of the safeguardability of each design. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extreme flood return levels in a U.S. mid-Atlantic estuary using 40-year fluvial-coastal model simulations

Using an integrated watershed-coastal modeling framework, we conducted long-term historical simulations (1980-2019) of fluvial and coastal flooding in the Delaware Bay and River, a vulnerable estuarine system in the U.S., at high spatial resolutions. By applying process-based models, we generated physically consistent and spatially detailed estimates of estuarine, riverine, and surge-driven extreme water level compared to previous studies that used field data only. We then evaluated changes in the magnitude of flood events using the 40-year simulations and detrended Floodwater Depth values with stationary extreme value analysis. Our detailed assessment of spatial-varying extreme values revealed how different flood-generation mechanisms can dominate various zones in the estuary. The datasets produced through this work will be valuable for long-term flood hazard mitigation planning in coastal communities in the Delaware Bay and River region. Additionally, this work will serve as a benchmark for other coastal flood hazard modeling communities worldwide, aiding them in systematically modeling long-term and continuous extreme flood events.

Coastal and Riverine Flooding↗
NASA NTRS2012

Arctic Ocean Freshwater: How Robust are Model Simulations

The Arctic freshwater (FW) has been the focus of many modeling studies, due to the potential impact of Arctic FW on the deep water formation in the North Atlantic. A comparison of the hindcasts from ten ocean-sea ice models shows that the simulation of the Arctic FW budget is quite different in the investigated models. While they agree on the general sink and source terms of the Arctic FW budget, the long-term means as well as the variability of the FW export vary among models. The best model-to-model agreement is found for the interannual and seasonal variability of the solid FW export and the solid FW storage, which also agree well with observations. For the interannual and seasonal variability of the liquid FW export, the agreement among models is better for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) than for Fram Strait. The reason for this is that models are more consistent in simulating volume flux anomalies than salinity anomalies and volume-flux anomalies dominate the liquid FW export variability in the CAA but not in Fram Strait. The seasonal cycle of the liquid FW export generally shows a better agreement among models than the interannual variability, and compared to observations the models capture the seasonality of the liquid FW export rather well. In order to improve future simulations of the Arctic FW budget, the simulation of the salinity field needs to be improved, so that model results on the variability of the liquid FW export and storage become more robust.

Jahn, A.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Performance Analysis of Transposition Models Simulating Solar Radiation on Inclined Surfaces

Transposition models have been widely used in the solar energy industry to simulate solar radiation on inclined photovoltaic panels. Following numerous studies comparing the performance of transposition models, this work aims to understand the quantitative uncertainty in state-of-the-art transposition models and the sources leading to the uncertainty. Our results show significant differences between two highly used isotropic transposition models, with one substantially underestimating the diffuse plane-of-array irradiances when diffuse radiation is perfectly isotropic. In the empirical transposition models, the selection of the empirical coefficients and land surface albedo can both result in uncertainty in the output. This study can be used as a guide for the future development of physics-based transposition models and evaluations of system performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2024

General Circulation Models Simulate Negative Liquid Water Path­–Droplet Number Correlations, but Anthropogenic Aerosols Still Increase Simulated Liquid Water Path

General circulation models' (GCMs) estimates of the liquid water path adjustment to anthropogenic aerosol emissions differ in sign from other lines of evidence. This reduces confidence in estimates of the effective radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci). The discrepancy is thought to stem in part from GCMs' inability to represent the turbulence–microphysics interactions in cloud-top entrainment, a mechanism that leads to a reduction in liquid water in response to an anthropogenic increase in aerosols. In the real atmosphere, enhanced cloud-top entrainment is thought to be the dominant adjustment mechanism for liquid water path, weakening the overall ERFaci. We show that the latest generation of GCMs includes models that produce a negative correlation between the present-day cloud droplet number and liquid water path, a key piece of observational evidence supporting liquid water path reduction by anthropogenic aerosols and one that earlier-generation GCMs could not reproduce. However, even in GCMs with this negative correlation, the increase in anthropogenic aerosols from preindustrial to present-day values still leads to an increase in the simulated liquid water path due to the parameterized precipitation suppression mechanism. This adds to the evidence that correlations in the present-day climate are not necessarily causal. We investigate sources of confounding to explain the noncausal correlation between liquid water path and droplet number. These results are a reminder that assessments of climate parameters based on multiple lines of evidence must carefully consider the complementary strengths of different lines when the lines disagree.

General circulation models↗
DOE OSTI2024

General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path

General circulation models' (GCMs) estimates of the liquid water path adjustment to anthropogenic aerosol emissions differ in sign from other lines of evidence. This reduces confidence in estimates of the effective radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci). The discrepancy is thought to stem in part from GCMs' inability to represent the turbulence–microphysics interactions in cloud-top entrainment, a mechanism that leads to a reduction in liquid water in response to an anthropogenic increase in aerosols. In the real atmosphere, enhanced cloud-top entrainment is thought to be the dominant adjustment mechanism for liquid water path, weakening the overall ERFaci. We show that the latest generation of GCMs includes models that produce a negative correlation between the present-day cloud droplet number and liquid water path, a key piece of observational evidence supporting liquid water path reduction by anthropogenic aerosols and one that earlier-generation GCMs could not reproduce. However, even in GCMs with this negative correlation, the increase in anthropogenic aerosols from preindustrial to present-day values still leads to an increase in the simulated liquid water path due to the parameterized precipitation suppression mechanism. This adds to the evidence that correlations in the present-day climate are not necessarily causal. We investigate sources of confounding to explain the noncausal correlation between liquid water path and droplet number. These results are a reminder that assessments of climate parameters based on multiple lines of evidence must carefully consider the complementary strengths of different lines when the lines disagree.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Evaluation of the Community Land Model simulated carbon and water fluxes against observations over ChinaFLUX sites

The Community Land Model (CLM) is an advanced process-based land surface model that simulates carbon, nitrogen, water vapor and energy exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere at various spatial and temporal scales. We use observed carbon and water fluxes from five representative Chinese Terrestrial Ecosystem Flux Research Network (ChinaFLUX) eddy covariance tower sites to systematically evaluate the new version CLM4.5 and old version CLM4.0, and to generate insights that may inform future model developments. CLM4.5 underestimates the annual carbon sink at three forest sites and one alpine grassland site but overestimates the carbon sink of a semi-arid grassland site. The annual carbon sink underestimation for the deciduous-dominated forest site results from underestimated daytime carbon sequestration during summer and overestimated nighttime carbon emission during spring and autumn. Compared to CLM4.0, the bias of annual gross primary production (GPP) is reduced by 24% and 28% in CLM4.5 at two subtropical forest sites. However, CLM4.5 still presents a large positive bias in annual GPP. The improvement in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) is limited, although soil respiration bias decreases by 16%–43% at three forest sites. CLM4.5 simulates lower soil water content in the dry season than CLM4.0 at two grassland sites. Drier soils produce a significant drop in the leaf area index and in GPP and an increase in respiration for CLM4.5. The new fire parameterization approach in CLM4.5 causes excessive burning at the Changbaishan forest site, resulting in an unexpected underestimation of NEE, vegetation carbon, and soil organic carbon by 46%, 95%, and 87%, respectively. Altogether, our study reveals significant improvements achieved by CLM4.5 compared to CLM4.0, and suggests further developments on the parameterization of seasonal GPP and respiration, which will require a more effective representation of seasonal water conditions and the partitioning of net radiation between sensible and heat fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Interrelation of soft and hard X-ray emissions during solar flares. II - Simulation model

Two-dimensional electrostatic particle simulations are presented which incorporate the effect of quasi-static electric fields on particle dynamics as well as effects associated with wave-particle interactions induced by the accelerated particles. The properties of the soft and hard X-ray and microwave emissions from such systems are examined. In particular, it is shown that acceleration by quasi-static electric fields and heating via wave-particle interactions produces electron distributions with a broken-power law, similar to those inferred from hard X-ray spectra. Also, heating of the ambient plasma gives rise to a region of hot plasma propagating down to the chromosphere at about the ion sound speed.

Winglee, R. M.↗