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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Central Asia Seismic Hazard Assessment (CASHA): A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) underpin the calculation of earthquake loads in most building codes around the world. In Central Asia, the building codes are slowly being updated to incorporate some of the contemporary concepts of seismic hazard representation. There is also a regional desire to coordinate hazard assessments and building code modernization. However, some challenges remain. Expertise in the region related to seismic hazard assessments is still largely compartmentalised, requiring a significant amount of training and capacity building in seismic hazard assessment related topics. In addition, there are vast amounts of seismic data (bulletin and waveforms), both from analogue and digital eras, that the region’s countries stored but until recently did not use or share among themselves or with the broader seismological community around the world. Finally, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, many of the countries’ seismic networks suffered a major setback with the lack of attention and budget to update existing equipment and installation of new instruments. In order to address these issues, the United States Department of Energy through Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) initiated a project in 2016 to engage and train local scientists in Central Asia to install new equipment, to enhance the quality of seismic monitoring and reporting, to improve and harmonise the regional earthquake catalogue, and to conduct national probabilistic seismic hazard assessments using the new and improved datasets. To achieve the seismic hazard assessment related goals, a series of workshops were held in Almaty, Kazakhstan; Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; and Dushanbe, Tajikistan from 2016 until 2020. During the time that the COVID-19 pandemic restricted travel, workshops continued online (22 online workshops were hosted in two years). Finally, in May 2022, an in-person workshop in Istanbul, Turkey brought together all project participants along with civil engineers engaged with building code activities in their respective countries, providing a platform to discuss the implementation of the hazard models into updates of building codes in each country, as well as to discuss model parameters, sensitivity analyses and model results in terms of hazard maps, uniform hazard spectra and hazard deaggregations. The workshops were a combination of lectures and hands-on exercises, and included international participation as well as local scientists and engineers. The workshops served several purposes, including training, coordination of data collection, interactions between local earth scientists and engineers, and brainstorming and knowledge exchange among local and international experts. This report outlines the new earthquake catalogue compilation effort and the PSHA project undertaken in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan as part of this initiative. The southern part of this region is tectonically active with moderate to high levels of both shallow crustal seismic activity and occurrence of deeper earthquakes under the Hindu Kush and Pamir mountain ranges. Deeper earthquakes also occur near southwestern Kazakhstan, under the eastern Greater Caucasus and Caspian Sea. Large portions of central and northern Kazakhstan, on the other hand, are in stable continental regions with low levels of seismic activity. This study systematically compiles and improves all available data on local seismicity, active faults, and ground motion attenuation characteristics of the region; and builds a framework to enable a contemporary PSHA to be carried out with the engagement of local scientists. While the project was regional, the seismic hazard assessments are primarily driven by the countries’ own national preferences and understanding of data collection, interpretation, and validation of results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An integrated approach to understanding RF vacuum arcs

Although used in the design and costing of large projects such as linear colliders and fusion tokamaks, the theory of vacuum arcs and gradient limits is not well understood. Almost 120 years after the isolation of vacuum arcs, the exact mechanisms of the arcs and the damage they produce are still being debated. We describe our simple and general model of the vacuum arc that can incorporate all active mechanisms and aims to explain all relevant data. Our four stage model, is based on experiments done at 805 MHz with a variety of cavity geometries, magnetic fields, and experimental techniques as well as data from Atom Probe Tomography and failure analysis of microelectronics. The model considers the trigger, plasma formation, plasma evolution and surface damage phases of the RF arc. This paper also examines how known mechanisms can explain the observed sharp field dependence, fast breakdown times and observed surface damage. We update the model and discuss new features while also pointing out where new data would be useful in extending the model to a wider range of frequencies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Toward Improved Regional Hydrological Model Performance Using State-Of-The-Science Data-Informed Soil Parameters

Accurate soil moisture and streamflow data are an aspirational need of many hydrologically relevant fields. Model simulated soil moisture and streamflow hold promise but models require validation prior to application. Calibration methods are commonly used to improve model fidelity but misrepresentation of the true dynamics remains a challenge. In this study, we leverage soil parameter estimates from the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database and the probability mapping of SSURGO (POLARIS) to improve the representation of hydrologic processes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) over a central California domain. Our results show WRF-Hydro soil moisture exhibits increased correlation coefficients ( r ), reduced biases, and increased Kling-Gupta Efficiencies (KGEs) across seven in situ soil moisture observing stations after updating the model's soil parameters according to POLARIS. Compared to four well-established soil moisture data sets including Soil Moisture Active Passive data and three Phase 2 North American Land Data Assimilation System land surface models, our POLARIS-adjusted WRF-Hydro simulations produce the highest mean KGE (0.69) across the seven stations. More importantly, WRF-Hydro streamflow fidelity also increases, especially in the case where the model domain is set up with SSURGO-informed total soil thickness. The magnitude and timing of peak flow events are better captured, r increases across nine United States Geological Survey stream gages, and the mean KGE across seven of the nine gages increases from 0.12 to 0.66. Our pre-calibration parameter estimate approach, which is transferable to other spatially distributed hydrological models, can substantially improve a model's performance, helping reduce calibration efforts and computational costs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Graph-learning approach to combine multiresolution seismic velocity models

SUMMARY The resolution of velocity models obtained by tomography varies due to multiple factors and variables, such as the inversion approach, ray coverage, data quality, etc. Combining velocity models with different resolutions can enable more accurate ground motion simulations. Toward this goal, we present a novel methodology to fuse multiresolution seismic velocity maps with probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). The PGMs provide segmentation results, corresponding to various velocity intervals, in seismic velocity models with different resolutions. Further, by considering physical information (such as ray path density), we introduce physics-informed probabilistic graphical models (PIPGMs). These models provide data-driven relations between subdomains with low (LR) and high (HR) resolutions. Transferring (segmented) distribution information from the HR regions enhances the details in the LR regions by solving a maximum likelihood problem with prior knowledge from HR models. When updating areas bordering HR and LR regions, a patch-scanning policy is adopted to consider local patterns and avoid sharp boundaries. To evaluate the efficacy of the proposed PGM fusion method, we tested the fusion approach on both a synthetic checkerboard model and a fault zone structure imaged from the 2019 Ridgecrest, CA, earthquake sequence. The Ridgecrest fault zone image consists of a shallow (top 1 km) high-resolution shear-wave velocity model obtained from ambient noise tomography, which is embedded into the coarser Statewide California Earthquake Center Community Velocity Model version S4.26-M01. The model efficacy is underscored by the deviation between observed and calculated traveltimes along the boundaries between HR and LR regions, 38 per cent less than obtained by conventional Gaussian interpolation. The proposed PGM fusion method can merge any gridded multiresolution velocity model, a valuable tool for computational seismology and ground motion estimation.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

2025 Status Report - Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Package in KAC

Fiberboard assemblies in the 9975 package were identified as susceptible to aging and degradation under long-term storage conditions. Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples aging for up to 20 years at accelerated conditions. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 ºF (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions. KAC completed calculations that supported extending the service life of 9975 packages with 3013 containers in storage from 20 years to 40 years. These calculations addressed the potential for degraded fiberboard properties following 40 years in storage using degradation models. The 40 year storage evaluations assumed the degradation rates from initial values for density, dimensional, and thermal properties were 0.5% per year (i.e., after 40 years, the density, dimensional, and thermal properties of fiberboard were 80% of its initial values). The updated degradation models developed in this report were compared to the assumptions in those calculations, and the current results for fiberboard dimensions, density, axial and radial thermal conductivities, and energy absorption remain consistent with those calculations. Additional data will continue to be collected to permit future refinements to the models and assumptions. Some of the predicted degradation rates presented in this report are purposely high to accelerate aging. These rates relate to environments that do not exist within KAC or are postulated to only occur as upset conditions that are unlikely to persist for an extended period. For a typical package stored in KAC with approximately 10-12 watts internal heat load or less, and ambient temperatures below 90 ºF, the fiberboard assemblies experience storage conditions less severe than any of the aging environments (i.e., under 125 °F) used in this study. Fiberboard in conforming packages with lower internal heat loads should experience little or no degradation and is expected to provide a service life beyond the currently approved 40 year storage period. Packages with higher internal heat loads may not continue to perform their required safety functions beyond 40 years. Ultimately, service life will be determined by the cumulative effect of degradation from all the conditions these packages might encounter. The results and model predictions presented in this report are applicable to 9975 packages with cane or softwood fiberboard overpack assemblies. These degradation models do not address the effects of nonconforming conditions such as the presence of excess moisture and mold or beetle infestations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Method and apparatus for shape-based energy analysis of solids

A computer-readable medium stores instructions including storing a model of a physical structure and defining a mesh for the model. The mesh includes finite elements, each defined by a respective set of edges. The instructions include, for each finite element, identifying a governing differential equation and a set of complementary functions that exactly satisfy the governing differential equation. The instructions include determining an applied physical stimulus for the physical structure. The instructions include generating an energy optimization model that minimizes a difference between internal energy and external energy of the finite elements in response to the applied physical stimulus. The model includes a matrix of respective scalar multipliers for the complementary functions for each finite element. The instructions include transforming the matrix and calculating a physical parameter of interest. The instructions include, in response to the physical parameter not satisfying a design parameter, updating the model of the physical structure.

Spears, Robert E.↗
DOE OSTI2022

History Matching and Prediction of a Polymer Flood Pilot in Heavy Oil Reservoir on Alaska North Slope

The first-ever polymer flood pilot to enhance heavy oil recovery on Alaska North Slope is ongoing. After more than 3 years of polymer injection, significant benefit has been observed from the decrease in water cut from 65% to less than 15% in the project producers. The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust history-matched reservoir simulation model capable of predicting future polymer flood performance. In this work, the reservoir simulation model has been developed based on the geological model and available reservoir and fluid data. In particular, four high transmissibility strips were introduced to connect the injector-producer well pairs, simulating short-circuiting flow behavior that can be explained by viscous fingering and reproducing the water cut history. The strip transmissibilities were manually tuned to improve the history matching results during the waterflooding and polymer flooding periods, respectively. It has been found that higher strip transmissibilities match the sharp water cut increase very well in the waterflooding period. Then the strip transmissibilities need to be reduced with time to match the significant water cut reduction. The viscous fingering effect in the reservoir during waterflooding and the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding have been effectively represented. Based on the validated simulation model, numerical simulation tests have been conducted to investigate the oil recovery performance under different development strategies, with consideration for sensitivity to polymer parameter uncertainties. The oil recovery factor with polymer flooding can reach about 39% in 30 years, twice as much as forecasted with continued waterflooding. Besides, the updated reservoir model has been successfully employed to forecast polymer utilization, a valuable parameter to evaluate the pilot test’s economic efficiency. All the investigated development strategies indicate polymer utilization lower than 3.5 lbs/bbl in 30 years, which is less than that of the same polymer used in a polymer pilot in Argentina.

Wang, Xindan↗
DOE OSTI2026

wavess 1.2: presenting an HLA-aware within-host virus sequence simulation framework

Motivation Understanding how virus sequences are shaped by selection can inform vaccine design and transmission inference. Modeling within-host evolution to interrogate these questions requires a detailed mechanistic framework that accurately captures sequence diversification. The CD8 + cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) response plays an important role in immune-mediated selection and can leave strong signatures in virus sequences; however, existing sequence-based within-host virus modeling frameworks do not explicitly include a human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-aware CTL response. Results We extended our previously published within-host sequence evolution simulator, wavess, to include an explicit CTL response, and share a method for identifying HLA-specific CTL epitopes given a founder virus sequence. We also updated the model to permit a variable recombination rate, which allows for modeling non-adjacent genes, segmented genomes, and recombination hotspots. These extensions to wavess allow for more accurate simulation of viruses and virus genes, particularly in regions of the genome where the immune response is dominated by CTLs (rather than antibodies). It also provides the foundation for investigations of how these newly-added biological mechanisms influence within-host evolution. Availability and implementation The core of wavess is written in Python 3, with helper functions written in R. It is available at https://github.com/MolEvolEpid/wavess.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

An assessment of Callahan's crushed salt constitutive model

This memorandum investigates the Callahan crushed salt constitutive model developed and used at Sandia National Laboratories for geomechanics applications. The formulation is reviewed, calibration against a novel long-term experiment with complex loading history is performed and validation against other experiments is attempted. Areas of improvement and deficiencies are identified that support the need for an alternative or updated constitutive model for crushed salt.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity to low-mass WIMPs with an improved liquid argon ionization response model within the DarkSide program

Dark matter detection experiments using liquid argon rely on a precise characterization of the ionization response to nuclear recoils, especially in the keV energy range relevant for light dark matter interactions. In this work, we present a comprehensive analysis that combines new measurements from the ReD setup, part of the DarkSide experimental program, with calibration data from DarkSide-50, as well as results from the ARIS and SCENE experiments. These combined datasets enable improved constraints on atomic screening effects in the modeling of the ionization response of liquid argon to nuclear recoils. The analysis is performed within the Thomas-Imel recombination framework adopted in previous DarkSide studies, and is here further constrained by the inclusion of ReD data, which allow the screening function to be determined from calibration measurements. By including the updated ionization model into the DarkSide-50 analysis framework, we obtain stronger exclusion limits on low-mass weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) interactions, setting new world-leading constraints in the 1 – 3 GeV / c 2 WIMP mass range. Finally, we recast the sensitivity projections for the upcoming DarkSide-20k detector, demonstrating a significantly enhanced discovery potential for low-mass dark matter candidates.

Acerbi, F. [Fond. Bruno Kessler, Trento]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying modeling uncertainty in simplified beam models for building response prediction

The use of simple models for response prediction of building structures is preferred in earthquake engineering for risk evaluations at regional scales, as they make computational studies more feasible. The primary impediment in their gainful use presently is the lack of viable methods for quantifying (and reducing upon) the modeling errors/uncertainties they bear. This study presents a Bayesian calibration method wherein the modeling error is embedded into the parameters of the model. Here, the method is specifically described for coupled shear-flexural beam models here, but it can be applied to any parametric surrogate model. The major benefit the method offers is the ability to consider the modeling uncertainty in the forward prediction of any degree-of-freedom or composite response regardless of the data used in calibration. The method is extensively verified using two synthetic examples. In the first example, the beam model is calibrated to represent a similar beam model but with enforced modeling errors. In the second example, the beam model is used to represent the detailed finite element model of a 52-story building. Both examples show the capability of the proposed solution to provide realistic uncertainty estimation around the mean prediction.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Discovery and characterization of five new eclipsing AM CVn systems

ABSTRACT AM CVn systems are ultra-compact, hydrogen-depleted, and helium-rich, accreting binaries with degenerate or semidegenerate donors. We report the discovery of five new eclipsing AM CVn systems with orbital periods of 61.5, 55.5, 53.3, 37.4, and 35.4 min. These systems were discovered by searching for deep eclipses in the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) light curves of white dwarfs selected using Gaia parallaxes. We obtained phase-resolved spectroscopy to confirm that all systems are AM CVn binaries, and we obtained high-speed photometry to confirm the eclipse and characterize the systems. The spectra show double-peaked H e lines but also show metals, including K and Zn, elements that have never been detected in AM CVn systems before. By modelling the high-speed photometry, we measured the mass and radius of the donor star, potentially constraining the evolutionary channel that formed these AM CVn systems. We determined that the average mass of the accreting white dwarf is ≈0.8 M⊙, and that the white dwarfs in long-period systems are hotter than predicted by recently updated theoretical models. The donors have a high entropy and are a factor of ≈2 more massive compared to zero-entropy donors at the same orbital period. The large donor radius is most consistent with H e-star progenitors, although the observed spectral features seem to contradict this. The discovery of five new eclipsing AM CVn systems is consistent with the known observed AM CVn space density and estimated ZTF recovery efficiency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Architecture-Aware Models of AI Engines for High-Performance Matrix Matrix Multiplication

The AI Engine (AIE) architecture, available in systems from mobile SoCs to server-class FPGAs, aims to efficiently execute AI/ML tasks through a two-dimensional array of compute tiles. Previous work on AIEs has explored different approaches to mapping computation across spatial arrays, but the compute kernel running on each tile has not been the focus. Additionally, the AIE-ML architecture introduces memory tiles and omits programmable logic, requiring new approaches to staging and moving data throughout the array. In this work we update analytical models developed for CPUs to produce the design of high performance kernels while introducing new model considerations such as memory structure, throughput, and latency as required by the AIE hardware. We evaluate our models by developing AIE-ML kernels for matrix multiplication in low-precision data types showing performance up to 95% of compute peak for the kernel when data resides in local memory and above 90% of compute peak when data resides in main memory.

Binder, Elliott D. [Carnegie Mellon University, Pi↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inverse Bremsstrahlung Absorption

Inverse bremsstrahlung absorption was measured based on transmission through a finite-length plasma that was thoroughly characterized using spatially resolved Thomson scattering. Expected absorption was then calculated using the diagnosed plasma conditions while varying the absorption model components. To match data, it is necessary to account for: (1) the Langdon effect; (2) laser-frequency (rather than plasma-frequency) dependence in the Coulomb logarithm, as is typical of bremsstrahlung theories but not transport theories; and (3) a correction due to ion screening. Radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of inertial confinement fusion implosions have to date used a Coulomb logarithm from the transport literature and no screening correction. Here, we anticipate that updating the model for collisional absorption will substantially revise our understanding of laser-target coupling for such implosions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recursive Blind Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation and Consumer Load for Microgrids

Existing forecasting frameworks that predict time-series photovoltaic (PV) generation and consumer load for micro-grids' operation and control assume near-continuous availability of real-time predictors from the field. The incoming data are used to periodically re-train the models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. This paper bridges the shortcoming by leveraging a previously proposed forecasting framework that is resilient to abrupt changes in data quality caused by communication losses. Assuming no availability of real-time field system data, which is typical in extreme weather events such as hurricanes, the framework uses lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance, ambient temperature, PV power, and consumer load for three horizon windows: 24 hours, 12 hours, and 1 hour. Four types of ensemble-based regression trees-simple gradient boosted trees (GBR), GBR with an adaptive component (A-GBR), random forests (RF), and extra trees (ExTR)-are leveraged and their performances are compared against a simple historical weekly mean. Numerical results show that A-GBR performs better on average by 32% for 24-hour horizon and 39% for 12-hour horizon, whereas ExTR outdoes the other models on average by 10% for 1-hour horizon.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗
DOE OSTI2020

Groundwater and Intruder Radionuclide Screening

Solid Waste Management (SWM) operates the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) where low level on-site and off-site solid waste streams are buried. The facility has been in operation since late 1994 and is currently projected to remain in operation until 2065. This facility can accommodate a broad range of waste forms resulting from the six different types of disposal unit options (i.e., varying degrees of engineered barriers → trenches to concrete vaults). This facility is currently operating under a Performance Assessment (PA) issued back in 2008, along with several subsequent supporting Special Analyses (SA). The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) developed the prior PAs and SAs and has been tasked to update the facility’s PA. For operating the E-Area facility, a Waste Inventory Tracking System (e.g., WITS) is actively employed by waste generators where every radionuclide entering the facility (to be buried in one of its many disposal units) must be either directly or indirectly accounted for. Since there is a large number of radionuclides in existence (>3,000), the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP-107) has provided guidance on the subset of radionuclides requiring further assessment in landfills such as the E-Area LLWF. The ICRP-107 publication provides critical radiological information on 1,252 radionuclides of 97 elements. This database is the critical starting point for developing a consistent inventory limit system. The explicit measurement and tracking of all radionuclides are not necessary when process knowledge, burial history, and radiological aspects are factored into conservative groundwater and intruder screening processes. Across the DOE complex these screening processes have been historically performed using the methodology suggested by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) as presented in their original report (NCRP 1984) and then refined in a later report (NCRP 1996). In the recommended screening models employed within this report the traditional NCRP models are updated to better handle progeny and better reflect the known characteristics of E-Area. This improved screening process is referred to as the “NCRP-like” method. Various upgrades to the traditional NCRP methodology have been used by others (e.g., NRC funded effort by Kennedy and Strenge 1992). The more detailed models by Kennedy and Strenge (1992) were considered in this effort and are compared to the results from the more traditional NCRP-like models. The groundwater and inadvertent intruder screening analyses presented in this report start with this 1,252 radionuclide list and reduces it down to more manageable lists that are applicable to the various disposal unit types contained within E-Area. In order to reduce this starting list, some level of exposure risk must be considered acceptable. Historically, a dose (or concentration level) has been compared with a screening criterion set to 1% of a performance measure (e.g., a beta-gamma dose not to exceed the 4 mrem/yr beta-gamma performance measure x 0.01 = 0.04 mrem/yr). Thus, if a radionuclide produced a bounding or screening-level dose (or concentrations) less than the screening criterion, it could be safely removed from further consideration. Several tiers of screening and bounding level analyses have been considered in this report.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Groundwater and Intruder Radionuclide Screening

Solid Waste Management (SWM) operates the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) where low level on-site and off-site solid waste streams are buried. The facility has been in operation since late 1994 and is currently projected to remain in operation until 2065. This facility can accommodate a broad range of waste forms resulting from the six different types of disposal unit options (i.e., varying degrees of engineered barriers → trenches to concrete vaults). This facility is currently operating under a Performance Assessment (PA) issued back in 2008, along with several subsequent supporting Special Analyses (SA). The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) developed the prior PAs and SAs and has been tasked to update the facility’s PA. For operating the E-Area facility, a Waste Inventory Tracking System (e.g., WITS) is actively employed by waste generators where every radionuclide entering the facility (to be buried in one of its many disposal units1) must be either directly or indirectly accounted for. Since there is a large number of radionuclides in existence (>3,000), the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP-107) has provided guidance on the subset of radionuclides requiring further assessment in landfills such as the E-Area LLWF. The ICRP-107 publication provides critical radiological information on 1,252 radionuclides of 97 elements. This database is the critical starting point for developing a consistent inventory limit system. The explicit measurement and tracking of all 1,252 ICRP-107 radionuclides can be reduced when process knowledge, burial history, and radiological aspects are factored into conservative groundwater and intruder screening processes. Across the DOE complex these screening processes have been historically performed using the methodology suggested by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) as presented in their original report (NCRP 1984) and then refined in a later report (NCRP 1996). In the recommended screening models employed within this report the traditional NCRP models are updated to better handle progeny and better reflect the known characteristics of E-Area. This improved screening process is referred to as the “NCRP-like” method. Various upgrades to the traditional NCRP methodology have been used by others (e.g., NRC funded effort by Kennedy and Strenge 1992). The more detailed models by Kennedy and Strenge (1992) were considered in this effort and are compared to the results from the more traditional NCRP-like models. The groundwater and inadvertent intruder screening analyses presented in this report start with this 1,252 radionuclide list and reduces it down to more manageable lists that are applicable to the various disposal unit types contained within E-Area. In order to reduce this starting list, some level of exposure risk must be considered acceptable. Historically, a dose (or concentration level) has been compared with a screening criterion set to 1% of a performance measure (e.g., a betagamma dose not to exceed the 4 mrem/yr beta-gamma performance measure x 0.01 = 0.04 mrem/yr). Thus, if a radionuclide produced a bounding or screening-level dose (or concentrations) less than the screening criterion, it could be safely removed from further consideration. Several tiers of screening and bounding level analyses have been considered in this report.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surrogate Model Guided Optimization of Expensive Black-Box Multi-Objective Problems: A Posteriori Methods

Many engineering applications require the simultaneous optimization of multiple conflicting objective functions. Often, these objective functions are evaluated using highly accurate computer simulations that are computationally too expensive to be evaluated hundreds or thousands of times during optimization. Thus, the goal is to find good approximations of the Pareto front using as few of these expensive simulations as possible. Here, we describe an optimization approach based on surrogate models and diverse sampling strategies to accelerate the search for the Pareto solutions. We use a separate surrogate model for approximating each objective function and then we use the surrogate models to inform where additional expensive simulations should be run. The surrogate models are updated in an active learning framework whenever new information from the expensive simulations becomes available. The sampling strategies aim at balancing local improvements of the approximate Pareto front and global exploration to identify the extrema and fill in large gaps of the approximate Pareto front. We demonstrate on a large set of benchmark problems the effectiveness of the method for finding good approximations of the Pareto front.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗