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At least 307 records · Page 17

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DOE OSTI2020

Geologic framework model for the Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) experiment testbed, Yucca Flat, Nevada National Security Site

Geologic framework models (GFMs) provide a methodology for integrating geology into, and thus geologically informing, other modeling and simulation activities. GFMs provide a three-dimensional (3-D), geology-based digital framework for developing and parametrizing meshes and evaluating model and simulation results. This report describes a 3-D GFM constructed for the Source Physics Experiment Phase II Dry Alluvium Geology test series located in Yucca Flat at the Nevada National Security Site. The geology in the Yucca Flat region is complex and diverse, which creates challenges to modeling seismic wave propagation from SPE tests. The Yucca Flat GFM helps address these challenges by providing the 3-D distribution of relevant geologic features and physical properties necessary to more effectively model seismic wave propagation. The GFM includes 7 model layers and 48 faults that cut and offset the layers. An appendix is included that provides quantitative data on physical properties for each model layer.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Basin-Scale Forest Adaptation Scenarios: Wildfire, Streamflow, Biomass, and Economic Recovery Synergies and Trade-Offs

Active forest management is applied in many parts of the western United States to reduce wildfire severity, mitigate vulnerability to drought and bark beetle mortality, and more recently, to increase snow retention and late-season streamflow. A rapidly warming climate accelerates the need for these restorative treatments, but the treatment priority among forest patches varies considerably. We simulated four treatment scenarios across the 3,450 km 2 Wenatchee River basin in eastern Washington, United States. We used a decision support tool (DST) to assess trade-offs and synergies within and among treatments on wildfire risk and smoke emissions, water yield and snow retention, biomass production, and economic return. Treatment scenarios emphasized prescribed burning ( BurnOnly ), biomass production ( MaxBiomass ), gap-based thinning to optimize water yield ( IdealWater ), and a principle-based restoration scenario ( RA1 ). Fire hazard, smoke emissions, and biomass production metrics were evaluated across scenarios using the Forest Vegetation Simulator, and water yields were modeled using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model. Simulations were summarized to both patch- (10 1 –10 2 ha) and subwatershed- (10 3 –10 4 ha) scales, and treatment effects were evaluated against an untreated baseline landscape. We used logic models to rank effect sizes by scenario across metrics along a continuum between −1 (no or weak effect) to +1 (large effect). All treatments produced benefits across one or more ecosystem services and led to synergistic benefits to water yield and wildfire hazard reduction. Tradeoffs among resource benefits were clear in wilderness where reliance on prescribed burning without mechanical treatment increased costs and eliminated the potential for biomass recovery. The BurnOnly scenario improved fire risk metrics and streamflow, but effect sizes were lower compared to other treatments. IdealWater showed the strongest benefits overall, demonstrating the ability to capture multiple resource benefits through spatially explicit thinning. Our study provides a framework for integrating strategic and tactical models that evaluate tradeoffs and synergies gained through varied management approaches. We demonstrate the utility of decision support modeling to enhance management synergies across large landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

GCAM-USA v5.3_water_dispatch: integrated modeling of subnational US energy, water, and land systems within a global framework

Abstract. This paper describes GCAM-USA v5.3_water_dispatch, an open-source model that represents key interactions across economic, energy, water, and land systems in a consistent global framework with subnational detail in the United States. GCAM-USA divides the world into 31 geopolitical regions outside the United States (US) and represents the US economy and energy systems in 51 state-level regions (50 states plus the District of Columbia). The model also includes 235 water basins and 384 land use regions, and 23 of each fall at least partially within the United States. GCAM-USA offers a level of process and temporal resolution rare for models of its class and scope, including detailed subnational representation of US water demands and supplies and sub-annual operations (day and night for each month) in the US electric power sector. GCAM-USA can be used to explore how changes in socioeconomic drivers, technological progress, or policy impact demands for (and production of) energy, water, and crops at a subnational level in the United States while maintaining consistency with broader national and international conditions. This paper describes GCAM-USA's structure, inputs, and outputs, with emphasis on new model features. Four illustrative scenarios encompassing varying socioeconomic and energy system futures are used to explore subnational changes in energy, water, and land use outcomes. We conclude with information about how public users can access the model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1992

Proposed evaluation framework for assessing operator performance with multisensor displays

Despite aggressive work on the development of sensor fusion algorithms and techniques, no formal evaluation procedures have been proposed. Based on existing integration models in the literature, an evaluation framework is developed to assess an operator's ability to use multisensor, or sensor fusion, displays. The proposed evaluation framework for evaluating the operator's ability to use such systems is a normative approach: The operator's performance with the sensor fusion display can be compared to the models' predictions based on the operator's performance when viewing the original sensor displays prior to fusion. This allows for the determination as to when a sensor fusion system leads to: 1) poorer performance than one of the original sensor displays (clearly an undesirable system in which the fused sensor system causes some distortion or interference); 2) better performance than with either single sensor system alone, but at a sub-optimal (compared to the model predictions) level; 3) optimal performance (compared to model predictions); or, 4) super-optimal performance, which may occur if the operator were able to use some highly diagnostic 'emergent features' in the sensor fusion display, which were unavailable in the original sensor displays. An experiment demonstrating the usefulness of the proposed evaluation framework is discussed.

Foyle, David C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

C3F: Collaborative Container-based Model Coupling Framework

Solving complex real-world grand challenge problems requires in-depth collaboration of researchers from multiple disciplines. Such collaboration often involves harnessing multiscale and multi-dimensional data and combining models from different fields to simulate systems. However, the progress on this front has been limited mainly due to significant gaps in domain knowledge and tools that are typically employed in silos of the domains. Researchers from different fields face considerable barriers to understanding and reusing each other’s data/models in order to collaborate effectively. For example, in solving the global sustainability problems, researchers from hydrology, climate science, agriculture, and economics need to run their respective models to study different components of the global and local food, energy and water systems while, at the same time, need to interact with other researchers and integrate the results of one model with another. Developing this kind of model coupling workflow calls for (1) a large amount of data being processed and exchanged across domains and organizations, (2) identifying and processing the output of one model to make it ready for integration into another model, (3) controlling the workflow dynamically so that it runs until a certain convergence condition or other criteria is met, and (4) close collaboration among the modelers to explore, tune, and test the configuration and data transformation needed to link the models. We have developed C3F, a flexible collaborative model coupling framework to help researchers accelerate their model integration and linking efforts by leveraging advanced cyberinfrastructure such as high-performance computing and virtual containers. In this paper, we describe our experience and lessons learned in developing this cyberinfrastructure solution to support the linking of Water Balance Model (WBM) and SIMPLE-G agricultural economic model in an NSF funded INFEWS project and a DOE-funded Program on Coupled Human and Earth Systems (PCHES) to study the implications of groundwater scarcity for food-energy-water systems. The C3F model coupling framework can be extended to facilitate other model linkages as well.

containerization↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Framework to Analyze the Requirements of a Multiport Megawatt-Level Charging Station for Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicles

Widespread adoption of heavy-duty (HD) electric vehicles (EVs) will soon necessitate the use of megawatt (MW)-scale charging stations to charge high-capacity HD EV battery packs. Such a station design needs to anticipate possible station traffic, average and peak power demand, and charging/wait time targets to improve throughput and maximize revenue-generating operations. High-power direct current charging is an attractive candidate for MW-scale charging stations at the time of this study, but there are no precedents for such a station design for HD vehicles. We present a modeling and data analysis framework to elucidate the dependencies of a MW-scale station operation on vehicle traffic data and station design parameters and how that impacts vehicle electrification. This framework integrates an agent-based charging station model with vehicle schedules obtained through real-world vehicle telemetry data analysis to explore the station design and operation space. A case study applies this framework to a Class 8 vehicle telemetry dataset and uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore various design considerations for MW-scale charging stations and EV battery technologies. The results show a direct correlation between optimal charging station placement and major traffic corridors such as cities with ports, e.g., Los Angeles and Oakland. Corresponding parametric sweeps reveal that while good quality of service can be achieved with a mix of 1.2-megawatt and 100-kilowatt chargers, the resultant fast charging time of 35–40 min will need higher charging power to reach parity with refueling times.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Modeling Framework for Computationally Efficient and Accurate Real-Time Ensemble Flood Forecasting With Uncertainty Quantification

A novel modeling framework that simultaneously improves accuracy, predictability, and computational efficiency is presented. It embraces the benefits of three modeling techniques integrated together for the first time: surrogate modeling, parameter inference, and data assimilation. The use of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogates significantly decreases computational time. Parameter inference allows for model faster convergence, reduced uncertainty, and superior accuracy of simulated results. Ensemble Kalman filters assimilate errors that occur during forecasting. To examine the applicability and effectiveness of the integrated framework, we developed 18 approaches according to how surrogate models are constructed, what type of parameter distributions are used as model inputs, and whether model parameters are updated during the data assimilation procedure. We conclude that (1) PCE must be built over various forcing and flow conditions, and in contrast to previous studies, it does not need to be rebuilt at each time step; (2) model parameter specification that relies on constrained, posterior information of parameters (so-called Selected specification) can significantly improve forecasting performance and reduce uncertainty bounds compared to Random specification using prior information of parameters; and (3) no substantial differences in results exist between single and dual ensemble Kalman filters, but the latter better simulates flood peaks. The use of PCE effectively compensates for the computational load added by the parameter inference and data assimilation (up to ~80 times faster). Therefore, the presented approach contributes to a shift in modeling paradigm arguing that complex, high-fidelity hydrologic and hydraulic models should be increasingly adopted for real-time and ensemble flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Long-Duration Energy Storage Grid Integration-Valuation Framework and Incentive Gaps

Given these challenges and current modeling gaps on Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES), enhancing the structure and design of existing planning, operations, and organized wholesale markets can better characterize the value of LDES to the power system. To more thoroughly assess the gaps and barriers to LDES investment and readiness for integration into a future grid, we conducted stakeholder outreach through an online survey, interviews with individual independent system operators/regional transmission organizations, and a literature review. Based on this assessment, we identified a set of opportunities for LDES focused development, including a framework to quantify the contributions of LDES on resource adequacy, reliability, and resiliency. Specifically, we identify the potential demand for and benefits of an open-source, LDES-centric evaluation framework that can guide future planning, operations, market design, and policy reforms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Resonant ultrasound spectroscopy for crystalline samples containing initial strain

Resonant ultrasound spectroscopy (RUS) is a mature and robust technique for the nondestructive characterization of the elastic properties of solids capable of providing the elastic constants of anisotropic crystalline solids. The traditional method is based on assuming that the solid is linear elastic and, therefore, obeys a linearized Hookean constitutive relationship (Hooke’s law). In this work, an alternative constitutive law is provided that allows for an initial strain or prestrain to be present stemming from residual stress. Then, the constitutive relationship is integrated into the RUS framework. The model is demonstrated using a realistic prestrain field obtained by simulating shot-peening processing of a polycrystalline Cu sample. The sensitivity of the resonances to the developed prestrain is established and discussed. This work allows researchers to consider the influence of initial strain or residual stress in their samples and the potential influence on accurate elastic constant estimates. The model also supports the potential of RUS for the nondestructive characterization of prestrain in materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Future bioenergy expansion could alter carbon sequestration potential and exacerbate water stress in the United States

The maximum future projected bioenergy expansion potential, in scenarios limiting warming to 2°C or below, is equivalent to half of present-day croplands. We quantify the impacts of large-scale bioenergy expansion against re/afforestation, which remain elusive, using an integrated human-natural system modeling framework with explicit representation of perennial bioenergy crops. The end-of-century net carbon sequestration due to bioenergy deployment coupled with carbon capture and storage largely depends on fossil fuel displacement types, ranging from 11.4 to 31.2 PgC over the conterminous United States. These net carbon sequestration benefits are inclusive of a 10 PgC carbon release due to land use conversions and a 2.4 PgC loss of additional carbon sink capacity associated with bioenergy-driven deforestation. Moreover, nearly one-fourth of U.S. land areas will suffer severe water stress by 2100 due to either reduced availability or deteriorated quality. These broader impacts of bioenergy expansion should be weighed against the costs and benefits of re/afforestation-based strategies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Fast Time-Stepping Strategy for Dynamical Systems Equipped with a Surrogate Model

Simulation of complex dynamical systems arising in many applications is computationally challenging due to their size and complexity. Model order reduction, machine learning, and other types of surrogate modeling techniques offer cheaper and simpler ways to describe the dynamics of these systems but are inexact and introduce additional approximation errors. In order to overcome the computational difficulties of the full complex models, on one hand, and the limitations of surrogate models, on the other, this work proposes a new accelerated time-stepping strategy that combines information from both. This approach is based on the multirate infinitesimal general-structure additive Runge--Kutta framework. The inexpensive surrogate model is integrated with a small time step to guide the solution trajectory, and the full model is treated with a large time step to occasionally correct for the surrogate model error and ensure convergence. Here, we provide a theoretical error analysis, and several numerical experiments, to show that this approach can be significantly more efficient than using only the full or only the surrogate model for the integration.

Surrogate models↗

DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Analysis Framework for the Hospital Resource Supply Model for Covid-19

In March and April of 2020 there was widespread concern about availability of medical resources required to treat Covid-19 patients who become seriously ill. A simulation model of supply management was developed to aid understanding of how to best manage available supplies and channel new production. Forecasted demands for critical therapeutic resources have tremendous uncertainty, largely due to uncertainties about the number and timing of patient arrivals. It is therefore essential to evaluate any process for managing supplies in view of this uncertainty. To support such evaluations, we developed a modeling framework that would allow an integrated assessment in the context of uncertainty quantification. At the time of writing there has been no need to execute this framework because adaptations of the medical system have been able to respond effectively to the outbreak. This report documents the framework and its implemented components should need later arise for its application.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mitigating Phase Unbalance for Distribution Systems with High Penetrations of Solar PV (Final Technical Report)

Distribution system operators have traditionally limited unbalance among phases by maintaining similar loadings on each phase. High penetrations of distributed solar PV continually change the net loading on each phase, resulting in time-varying phase unbalances that can damage three-phase devices such as three-phase motors, violate grid codes, and increase technical losses. This project has developed several control strategies for the reactive power outputs of solar PV inverters in order to mitigate power quality issues related to phase unbalance. These control strategies include a decentralized approach that is solely based on local measurements, distributed and grouped approaches that consider subsets of loads and PV generators, and a centralized approach that leverages measurements from a variety of locations in order to compute optimal reactive power setpoints for each inverter. Variants of the controllers handle challenges relevant to practical implementations, including noisy measurements, delayed communications, and reactive power limits. Moreover, the project developed theory that provides convergence guarantees for systems with multiple interacting controllers as well as “balanceability” certificates that ensure satisfaction of phase unbalance requirements with variable loading. The controllers were integrated with NRECA’s Open Modeling Framework (omf.coop) and evaluated using actual distribution system models obtained from several NRECA member utilities. Application of the controllers results in significant improvements to phase unbalance in these test cases with decreases from base case levels of over 3% to under 0.5%, which is within the 2% IEC phase unbalance standard.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2001

Launch Vehicle Design Process: Characterization, Technical Integration, and Lessons Learned

Engineering design is a challenging activity for any product. Since launch vehicles are highly complex and interconnected and have extreme energy densities, their design represents a challenge of the highest order. The purpose of this document is to delineate and clarify the design process associated with the launch vehicle for space flight transportation. The goal is to define and characterize a baseline for the space transportation design process. This baseline can be used as a basis for improving effectiveness and efficiency of the design process. The baseline characterization is achieved via compartmentalization and technical integration of subsystems, design functions, and discipline functions. First, a global design process overview is provided in order to show responsibility, interactions, and connectivity of overall aspects of the design process. Then design essentials are delineated in order to emphasize necessary features of the design process that are sometimes overlooked. Finally the design process characterization is presented. This is accomplished by considering project technical framework, technical integration, process description (technical integration model, subsystem tree, design/discipline planes, decision gates, and tasks), and the design sequence. Also included in the document are a snapshot relating to process improvements, illustrations of the process, a survey of recommendations from experienced practitioners in aerospace, lessons learned, references, and a bibliography.

Blair, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Mapping Process to Pattern in the Landscape Change of the Amazonian Frontier

Changes in land use and land cover are dynamic processes reflecting a sequence of decisions made by individual land managers. In developing economies, these decisions may be embedded in the evolution of individual households, as is often the case in indigenous areas and agricultural frontiers. One goal of the present article is to address the land use and land-cover decisions of colonist farmers in the Amazon Basin as a function, in part, of household characteristics. Another goal is to generalize the issue of tropical deforestation into a broader discussion on forest dynamics. The extent of secondary forest in tropical areas has been well documented in South America and Africa. Agricultural-plot abandonment often occurs in tandem with primary forest clearance and as part of the same decision-making calculus. Consequently, tropical deforestation and forest succession are not independent processes in the landscape. This article presents a framework that integrates them into a model of forest dynamics at household level, and in so doing provides an account of the spatial pattern of deforestation that has been observed in the Amazon's colonization frontiers.

Walker, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Verification-Driven Approach to Control Analysis and Tuning

This paper proposes a methodology for the analysis and tuning of controllers using control verification metrics. These metrics, which are introduced in a companion paper, measure the size of the largest uncertainty set of a given class for which the closed-loop specifications are satisfied. This framework integrates deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty models into a setting that enables the deformation of sets in the parameter space, the control design space, and in the union of these two spaces. In regard to control analysis, we propose strategies that enable bounding regions of the design space where the specifications are satisfied by all the closed-loop systems associated with a prescribed uncertainty set. When this is unfeasible, we bound regions where the probability of satisfying the requirements exceeds a prescribed value. In regard to control tuning, we propose strategies for the improvement of the robust characteristics of a baseline controller. Some of these strategies use multi-point approximations to the control verification metrics in order to alleviate the numerical burden of solving a min-max problem. Since this methodology targets non-linear systems having an arbitrary, possibly implicit, functional dependency on the uncertain parameters and for which high-fidelity simulations are available, they are applicable to realistic engineering problems..

Crespo, Luis G.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Benchmark Comparison of Dual- and Quad-Core Processor Linux Clusters with Two Global Climate Modeling Workloads

This viewgraph presentation details the science and systems environments that NASA High End computing program serves. Included is a discussion of the workload that is involved in the processing for the Global Climate Modeling. The Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) is a system of models integrated using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The GEOS-5 system was used for the Benchmark tests, and the results of the tests are shown and discussed. Tests were also run for the Cubed Sphere system, results for these test are also shown.

McGalliard, James↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA's Integrated Instrument Simulator Suite for Atmospheric Remote Sensing from Spaceborne Platforms (ISSARS) and Its Role for the ACE and GPM Missions

Forward simulation is an indispensable tool for evaluation of precipitation retrieval algorithms as well as for studying snow/ice microphysics and their radiative properties. The main challenge of the implementation arises due to the size of the problem domain. To overcome this hurdle, assumptions need to be made to simplify compiles cloud microphysics. It is important that these assumptions are applied consistently throughout the simulation process. ISSARS addresses this issue by providing a computationally efficient and modular framework that can integrate currently existing models and is also capable of expanding for future development. ISSARS is designed to accommodate the simulation needs of the Aerosol/Clouds/Ecosystems (ACE) mission and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission: radars, microwave radiometers, and optical instruments such as lidars and polarimeter. ISSARS's computation is performed in three stages: input reconditioning (IRM), electromagnetic properties (scattering/emission/absorption) calculation (SEAM), and instrument simulation (ISM). The computation is implemented as a web service while its configuration can be accessed through a web-based interface.

real-aperture instruments↗