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At least 307 records · Page 17

Assessment of the impacts of renewable energy variability in long-term decarbonization strategies

To meet the nationally determined contributions proposed by the countries that signed the Paris Agreement, investments must be made in renewable generation technologies such as solar and wind. However, due to their high variability, these technologies pose challenges in terms of meeting demand or generating excess electricity. For this reason, energy system models are designed to capture this variability by considering flexibility technologies. Nevertheless, it is important to note that some energy system models lack integration with other sectors. Therefore, integrated assessment models have been employed to evaluate mitigation strategies, as they endogenously consider the linkages between energy and non-energy sectors. In addition, due to their complexity, these models do not account for the variability of renewable resources. Hence, this research aims to address this issue. Here, this work represents the first attempt to evaluate how the introduction of hourly resolution affects the outcomes of integrated assessment models, specifically focusing on the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We employ a soft-linking approach between the GCAM and the Highway to Renewable Energy Systems model (H2RES, an hourly level energy system model) to accomplish this. The proposed approach is tested using Chile’s Nationally Determined Contributions under different hydrological profiles in the power sector. The results show that it is possible to use the capacity obtained from the Global Change Analysis Model and implement it on an hourly scale. However, the feasibility of implementation depends on high levels of flexibility technologies, such as battery energy storage. When given the choice of investments in renewable sources and flexible technologies, the optimal dispatch of the H2RES model show small differences than those obtained by GCAM-Chile. H2RES differs from GCAM-Chile in approximately 5% for wind and 3% for solar electricity generation in the year 2050. However, feasible integration of significant renewable sources is obtained with relatively high Critical Excess Electricity Production levels, reaching 20% in 2050. This excess electricity is attributed to the necessity for flexible technologies to manage the intermittency of renewables sources when hourly profiles of such sources are considered.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Evolution of storage monitoring – update in response to commercial and regulatory drivers

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is in transition from first-of-a kind projects and research-orientated pilots to commercially-motivated applications. Monitoring results from many newly developed and planned large scale commercial projects are limited; however, it is worthwhile to assess their evolution and consider new strategies as part of an effort to assess and document best practices. Commercial monitoring is targeted to activities that comply with regulatory drivers and de-risk investments. Commercial monitoring also supports accounting that storage has occurred and is tied to project financing. It deals with long time frames and large volumes injected into multiple wells and multiple projects in favorable areas. We see developing trends toward reproducible workflows that systematically reduce risks and clarify expectations for oversight and long-term surveillance. Monitoring techniques showing increasing trends include injection zone pressure as a history-matching and compliance tool. To reduce cost and environmental impact of time-lapse seismic data collection, deploying new approaches and tools, such as use of fibre and installed sources are increasingly applied. Concern over the risk of induced seismicity by regulatory bodies and the general public has increased, which has also resulted in increased monitoring. Some techniques used in the early research phases have been sidelined or used only in restricted applications. For example, geochemical analyses in the injection zone as well as the environment are now being deployed less than it was in research-oriented programs, except in the US where it is required by the permitting process. Expectations of frequent area-wide near surface monitoring have also decreased.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DEMOS (Demographic Microsimulator Tool for Longitudinal Synthetic Population) [SWR-25-135] related to NLR SWR-26-076

The Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) is an agent-based simulation framework used to model the evolution of population demographic characteristics and lifecycle events, such as education attainment, marital status, and other key transitions. DEMOS modules are designed to capture the interdependencies between short-term and long-term lifecycle events, which are often influential in downstream transportation and land-use modeling. A key feature of DEMOS is its ability to track changes in an agent’s demographic status from year t to year t + 1. This structure allows the model to evolve populations over any user-defined time horizon. As a result, DEMOS is well suited for analyzing medium- and long-term transportation-related decisions, including household vehicle transactions (e.g., purchasing, selling, or replacing vehicles) and work location choices. Core features of DEMOS include the modeling of more than ten lifecycle events, behaviorally realistic patterns informed by long-running panel data, explicit representation of interdependencies among lifecycle processes, and a flexible, modular simulation architecture. A technical memorandum describing DEMOS is available here. The memorandum provides an overview of the framework’s functionality, model structure, input and output data, and its applications in transportation planning and broader policy analysis contexts. Interested readers are also encouraged to consult the paper listed below for additional details on the DEMOS methodology. Sun, Bingrong, Shivam Sharda, Venu M. Garikapati, Mohamed Amine Bouzaghrane, Juan Caicedo, Srinath Ravulaparthy, Isabel Viegas de Lima, Ling Jin, C. Anna Spurlock, and Paul Waddell. "Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life." Transportation Research Record (2025): 03611981251333339.

Sun, Bingrong [National Laboratory of the Rockies ↗

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2023 Edition

Wind power additions in the United States totaled 8.5 gigawatts (GW) in 2022. Wind power growth has historically been supported by the industry’s primary federal incentive—the production tax credit (PTC)—as well as myriad state-level policies. Long-term improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technologies have also been key drivers for wind additions. Nonetheless, 2022 was a relatively slow year in terms of new wind power deployment—the lowest since 2018—due in part to ongoing supply chain pressures, higher interest rates, and interconnection and siting challenges, but also the reduction in the value of the PTC that was in place up until the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in August 2022.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Technology for Predictive Maintenance

The domestic nuclear power plant fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming preventive maintenance programs, thus driving up operation and maintenance costs to achieve high-capacity factors. Artificial intelligence and machine learning can help simplify complex problems, such as diagnosing equipment degradation, to enable more effective decision-making. Benefits will be felt not only within existing analog and digital instrumentation and control, but also work processes, the integration of people with technology, and most importantly, the business case. Together, these hold promise to make nuclear power more efficient and reduce costs associated with operation and maintenance. While the artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies hold significant promise in the nuclear industry, there are challenges or barriers to their adoption. This report outlines the those different machine learning adoption barriers (categorized as historical, technical, economic, regulatory, and user) that the industry must overcome to realize the full benefits of artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities for long-term economic sustainability. This report also provides solutions for some of these barriers by focusing on improving the explainability of machine learning to encourage trust from the end-user. Trust and explainability are essential to machine learning adoption. This report focuses on research-developed solutions to some of these barriers while analyzing a non-safety-related system, namely the circulating water system. This system frequently experiences waterbox fouling which our models preemptively diagnoses then explains to the operator how those conclusions were reached. This report presents and discusses the inherent trade-off between machine learning performance (in terms of accuracy) and explainability, where highly accurate machine learning methods (such as deep-learning) are the least explainable, and the most explainable methods (such as decision trees) are the least accurate. In addition, explainability of artificial intelligence techniques in terms of transparency and post-hoc metrics are discussed. This report outlines the importance of data novelty and value of new information in evaluating both the explainability and trustworthiness. Novelty detection helps to establish consistency or inconsistency of the new data with respect to the training data. On the other hand, value of information could be a part of the user-centric visualization recommendation system that request additional information to be collected, thereby strengthening the machine learning outcomes. During this project, a copyrighted user-centric visualization that aligns with a human-in-the-loop approach was developed. The user-centric visualization presents different levels of information and can be tailored as per user credentials to gain user confidence. One of the salient features of the user-centric visualization is it presents machine learning methods with explainability metrics. A simplified version of the user-centric visualization was presented to 32 users with varying levels of machine learning expertise. Feedback was solicited to test the hypothesis that the app contained sufficient explainability and that the users would trust the algorithm. Overall, the app was positively received, and the hypothesis was supported. This report discusses the trust-but-verify framework – a potential approach to build user trust artificial intelligence. The framework discusses trust from the human level to artificial intelligence level. The fundamental premise of the trust but verify framework is derived from an observation of nuclear safety culture (i.e., nuclear power plant personnel do not rely on a singular source of data to make a decision). This also ties back to the user-centric visualization that presents different levels of information to achieve both explainability and trustworthiness of artificial intelligence. Even so, the adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning in the nuclear industry faces additional barriers, namely regulatory and stakeholder readiness. To overcome these challenges, new solutions must gain regulatory approval and cater to stakeholder needs. The Nuclear Regulatory Committee has a 5-year strategic plan which prepares them for reviewing artificial intelligence technologies in licensee submissions. Early and frequent engagement with the regulator is encouraged. Additionally, artificial intelligence solutions should incorporate human-in-the-loop considerations and offer explainability. Stakeholders must prepare by hiring or training staff to adapt to advancing technology in everyday plant tasks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Research Priorities and Opportunities in U.S. Wholesale Electricity Markets: Market Design under Deep Decarbonization

This report contributes to the body of literature by reviewing key challenges for competitive wholesale electricity market design in deeply decarbonized power systems and establishing potential solutions and associated research needs. We provide a long-term perspective on ways in which competitive wholesale electricity markets can evolve to ensure that they still operate efficiently throughout the transition to a deeply decarbonized future. In this report, we use the term “deep decarbonization” to refer broadly to systems that generate nearly all their electricity from zero-carbon or carbon-neutral resources, while recognizing that there are many potential configurations of such systems. We also stress that many of these issues will arise to varying degrees as systems move toward full decarbonization, even if they are not truly 100% carbon-free.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Fundamental Studies of the Vibrational, Electronic, and Photophysical Properties of Tetrapyrrolic Architectures

The ability to capture and utilize light in the near-ultraviolet (NUV), visible and near-infrared (NIR-I and NIR-II) spectral regions (i.e., 320–400, 400–700, 700–1000, 1000–1700 nm) is essential for any solar-energy conversion scheme. Nature employs chlorophylls and bacteriochlorophylls in light-harvesting architectures to absorb light in the blue and red/NIR regions. Accessory pigments (carotenoids, bilins) augment absorption of the (bacterio)chlorophylls in the green region. The harvested energy is funneled to a reaction center protein, where charge separation occurs. Subsequent migration of the electron and the hole stabilizes and stores the energy from light via redox chemistry. The long-term objective of the Bocian/Holten&Kirmaier/Lindsey research program under this DOE grant has been to develop tetrapyrrole-based molecular architectures that absorb sunlight, funnel energy and separate charge with high efficiency. Integral to the program has been iterative cycles of design, synthesis and characterization that provided deep insights into the relationships between chemical composition, electronic structure, and key static and dynamic properties (vibrational, redox, photophysical, energy/charge transfer) of tetrapyrrolic systems. Such architectures included monomers, dyads, larger arrays, and complexes with accessory components. The objective was to develop molecular designs and guiding principles to enhance current and future energy-conversion schemes. Molecular arrays targeted to address one or more fundamental questions concerning light harvesting and energy/charge transfer were constructed from analogues of the naturally occurring hemes, chlorophylls and bacteriochlorophylls. Diverse, tunable synthetic building blocks were prepared that spanned the three respective tetrapyrrole families, which are the porphyrins, chlorins and bacteriochlorins. Thus, the research focused on porphyrins as well as synthetic surrogates for chlorophylls (chlorins, 13 1 -oxophorbines and chlorin-imides) and bacteriochlorophylls (bacteriochlorins, bacterio-13 1 -oxophorbines and bacteriochlorin-imides), generically termed hydroporphyrins. Although the three tetrapyrrole classes (porphyrins, chlorins and bacteriochlorins) absorb light strongly in the violet-blue spectral region, the long-wavelength absorption band typically lies in the green-orange, red, and NIR regions, respectively, with increasing intensity. Understanding the spectra, electronic structure, and energy/charge-transfer properties of such tetrapyrrolic macrocycles is of central importance for the rational design of molecular architectures for solar-energy conversion. Our integrated program of molecular design and synthesis coupled with a variety of spectroscopic, electrochemical, and computational studies have probed from first principles how structural and electronic properties of tetrapyrrolic macrocycles dictate spectral properties as well as the rates of ground-state hole/electron transfer and excited-state energy flow in multicomponent architectures. Individual molecules and multicomponent architectures were designed to test ideas of fundamental importance, often requiring the development of new synthetic methodology. The members of the collaborative team had almost daily discussions by phone and/or e-mail concerning design of molecules, flow of compounds between the labs, planning of physical characterization studies, discussing results and analysis and integrating into design of next generation architectures, and the preparation of manuscripts. Furthermore, students and postdocs in the different labs routinely communicated with one another to facilitate the advancement of the research activities. In short, a highly integrated and collaborative research program was well established among the groups. The research effort involved molecular design and synthesis of synthetic molecular architectures by the Lindsey group integrated with physicochemical and photophysical characterization by the Bocian group and the Holten&Kirmaier group (Figure 2). The Bocian group carried out electrochemical, electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR), resonance Raman (RR), and Fourier-transform infrared (FT-IR) studies, as well as density functional theory (DFT) calculations and the time-dependent extension (TDDFT) to gain insight into excited-state properties. The Holten&Kirmaier group carried out static and time-resolved absorption and fluorescence spectroscopy studies and simulated absorption spectra using molecular orbital (MO) energies from DFT as input to the four-orbital model to complement the TDDFT calculations. The combined measurements provided understanding of the vibrational/electronic properties of the individual molecules and the changes that occur upon incorporation into multicomponent architectures. This information underpinned elucidating the mechanisms and timescales of ground-state hole/electron transfer and excited-state energy and charge transfer.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Implementing a Laser Stabilization System for Trapping Ca+ Ions: an Internship Reflection

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, I contributed to a project developing 3D printed micro ion traps for quantum computing. I designed, implemented, and assessed a laser stabilization system that locked lasers to the frequencies required for calibrating our High Finesse WS8-10 wavelength meter and for laser cooling and trapping of Ca+ ions. I also programmed a Python interface for hardware communication, data collection, and statistical analysis. Additionally, I optimized and aligned laser beam paths, and I implemented a closed digital feedback loop using Proportional, Integral, and Derivative (PID) control parameters. I analyzed both the long-term and short-term behavior of our locked lasers and adjusted PID parameters to enhance performance. Furthermore, I used COMSOL to simulate the capacitance of a linear Paul trap design and predict our trap’s performance. The procedures I developed for the interface, analysis, and simulations will continue to support the ion trapping experiment after my appointment. I strengthened my skills in data analysis, Python coding, and optical alignment for laser systems. My confidence as a researcher grew, particularly in communicating my research. This experience taught me the importance of careful planning and consideration in research and solidified my desire to continue exploring novel quantum technology as an undergraduate

42 ENGINEERING↗

Plutonium Oxidation State Distribution in the Presence of WIPP-Relevant Organics and Iron Corrosion Products

The oxidation state and solubility of plutonium (Pu) in high ionic strength synthetic WIPP (Waste Isolation Pilot Plant) brines as a function of pC H+ in the presence and absence of WIPP-relevant organic ligands (EDTA [Ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid], oxalate, citrate, acetate) and iron corrosion products (magnetite and metallic iron) at 𝑇 = 23 ± 2 ∘C was thoroughly studied by long-term batch solubility experiments (between approximately 800-1,100 days) from an undersaturation approach. The oxidation state of Pu in the WIPP environment has been a topic of interest since the initial Compliance Certification Application (CCA). This study aims to investigate the solubility of Pu under the expected WIPP conditions and to determine the oxidation state of the solid phase that will control the solubility. One of the most important results of this study is that the Pu oxidation state was analyzed both from the surface area of the corrosion products and in the precipitated solid. The analysis of the Pu oxidation state on the surface of the iron mineral from the ongoing undersaturated experiments is more relevant to the performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal than short term batch (plutonium-iron phase) experiments. The X-ray Absorption Near-Edge Spectroscopy (XANES) analysis showed that Pu oxidation state is different on the metal surface and in the precipitated solid. Pu(III) is the dominant oxidation state in the metallic iron (Fe 0 ) system in the presence and absence of organics. Pu(IV) is the dominant oxidation state in the magnetite system in the presence and absence of organics. Also, organics stabilize Pu(IV) in the magnetite system. Analysis of Pu in the precipitated solid by Extended X-ray Absorption Fine Structure (EXAFS) analysis showed that Pu formed an inner-sphere complex with iron with minor amounts of PuO 2 present. X-ray diffraction (XRD) results indicate that metallic iron and magnetite did not oxidize in three years in the alkaline and high ionic strength system. Under these conditions (8 < pC H+ < 10 at T = (22 ± 2) °C under nitrogen atmosphere, the solubility of Pu changes by up to three orders of magnitude (10 -5 and 10 -8 M). The spread in solubility is highest at pC H+ = 9. Pu(III) and Pu(IV) showed different solubility behavior in the synthetic WIPP brine. A summary of the data collected in this report will be submitted to Sandia National Laboratories as part of a parameter update report which will outline the changes to the OXSTAT parameter for the 2026 Compliance Recertification Application (CRA-2026). The experiments performed were done according to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) approved Test Plan entitled “Effects of Radiolysis, Organic Complexation, and Redox Conditions on the Speciation and Oxidation State Distribution of Pu(III/IV)” (LCO-ACP-25). All data reported were obtained under the Los Alamos National Laboratory-Carlsbad Office (LANL-CO) Quality Assurance Program, which is compliant with the DOE Carlsbad Field Office, Quality Assurance Program Document (CBFO/QAPD).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Nuclear Direct Air Capture with Carbon Storage (NuDACCS) (Final Technical Report)

This final report, which is for DOE Award Number DE-FE0032160 (Direct Air Capture Combined with dedicated Long-Term Carbon Storage, Coupled to Existing Low-Carbon Energy), covers the Nuclear Direct Air Capture with Carbon Storage (NuDACCS) project period of performance from 03/31/2022 to 12/27/2024. Battelle Memorial Institute (Battelle) partnered with Aircapture LLC (Aircapture), Southern Company (Southern), Carbonvert, the University of Alabama, and Sargent & Lundy (S&L) to develop a front end engineering design (FEED) study for a direct air capture (DAC) system co-located with Southern Company's Joseph M. Farley Nuclear Plant (Plant Farley) in Columbia, Alabama. The DAC system was designed to capture at least 5,000 net tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year from ambient air in a form suitable for long duration carbon storage (e.g., geologic storage). To complement and support the FEED study, additional analyses were completed, including a Technology Maturation Plan (TMP); Workforce Readiness Plan; Project Cost Estimate; Business Case Analysis (BCA); Life Cycle Analysis (LCA); Environmental Health and Safety (EH&S) Assessment; and Environmental Justice (EJ) Analysis and Economic Revitalization and Job Creation Outcomes Analysis.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Advancing Grid Resilience through Smart Charge Management: Findings from Maryland’s Pilot

This report presents research findings from a four-year Smart Charge Management (SCM) pilot program conducted by Maryland’s largest electric utilities—Baltimore Gas and Electric (BGE), Potomac Electric Power Company (Pepco), and Delmarva Power & Light (DPL)—to evaluate strategies for optimizing electric vehicle (EV) charging loads and enhancing grid stability. Supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Argonne National Laboratory collaborated with all project partners and examined the effectiveness of Time-of-Use (TOU) and Load Balancing (LB) strategies in managing peak demand, deferring costly infrastructure upgrades, and reducing grid constraints at the feeder level. Using charging data from over 4,600 EV drivers, the study analyzed SCM’s impact on the distribution systems of BGE and Pepco, which consists of over 2000 feeders. Unlike prior research that focused on system-wide trends or synthetic feeders, this analysis offers granular, feeder-level insights based on real-world operational data. It highlights how transformer density, load profiles, and infrastructure constraints influence smart charging performance. Results show feeder-level conditions play a crucial role in SCM effectiveness, with most feeders benefiting more from LB, while TOU-based SCM may be sufficient for others. By 2035, LB reduced peak charging loads by 27% on average, compared to 23% under TOU-based SCM, though some feeders saw reductions exceeding 35%, while others experienced minimal impact. Feeders with higher transformer utilization and limited capacity benefited more from LB, which more effectively distributed charging demand during off-peak hours. Beyond reducing grid constraints, SCM offers long-term operational and financial benefits. By shifting EV charging demand strategically, utilities can optimize asset utilization, delay infrastructure investments, and enhance grid performance. In terms of infrastructure upgrade deferrals, at the feeder level, LB consistently reduced peak charging loads and resulting infrastructure upgrade costs, particularly in high EV enrollment areas, decreasing the number of overloaded transformers by up to 35%, while TOU-based SCM achieved 20-30% reductions depending on feeder characteristics. At the system level, LB has the potential to defer total upgrade costs by $\$$186 million for BGE, compared to $\$$159 million under TOU-based SCM. For Pepco, TOU-based SCM performed slightly better, deferring upgrade costs by $\$$30 million, compared to $\$$29 million under LB. Section 4.5 reviews some of the system differences between BGE and Pepco. However, as EV adoption scales, TOU-based SCM will introduce secondary peak charging loads, reinforcing the need for more advanced, adaptive SCM approaches to prevent new grid challenges. As EV adoption continues to grow, feeder-level managed charging strategies will be essential for mitigating grid stress, improving infrastructure efficiency, and maintaining energy affordability for consumers. This report provides critical insights for utilities, Public Utility Commissions (PUCs), and state agencies on the role of feeder-specific smart charging in infrastructure planning, policy development, and grid modernization. The findings underscore the importance of tailored, data-driven SCM solutions that align with local grid conditions, ensuring a resilient, cost-effective transition to increasing EV adoption while safeguarding distribution system performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Williston Basin Resource Study for Commercial-Scale Subsurface Hydrogen Storage

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the EERC’s State Energy Research Center (SERC), MPLX Operations LLC, and TC Energy Development Holdings Inc. (a subsidiary of TC Energy Corporation), studied the potential for subsurface hydrogen storage and recovery in the Williston Basin of western North Dakota. The project’s goal was to evaluate the feasibility of large-scale, secure geologic H 2 storage to support future hydrogen generation, storage, and use. This work included laboratory testing, H 2 –rock–fluid exposure experiments, literature reviews on H 2 embrittlement, and reservoir modeling and simulations. The study included an assessment of storage potential across three types of storage reservoirs using both reservoir simulation and DOE’s web-based tool SHASTA-HELP (Subsurface Hydrogen Assessment, Storage, and Technology Acceleration – Hydrogen Estimator for Logistical Planning), as well as investigation of potential H 2 production and markets for commercial-scale deployment. Building on prior EERC gas storage research, three storage options were selected for detailed evaluation: the Broom Creek Formation (a clastic saline reservoir), the Dickinson Lodgepole Mounds (DLM) complex (carbonate mud mound structures) of the Lodgepole Formation (an active oil and gas producing reservoir), and the Dunham Salt Interval of the Piper Formation (to be used for engineered salt cavern development). These targets were prioritized based on prior EERC research using datasets related to seal capacity, reservoir quality, mechanical integrity, and injectivity. Exposure tests on Broom Creek and DLM samples showed mineral dissolution and precipitation that increased brine salinity and altered reservoir rock surfaces. Although these results provide useful insight, they are limited by small sample sizes and short-term (30-day) exposure, requiring further study to assess long-term storage integrity. Salt formations were not tested because of their known nonreactivity and established mechanical stability. Results of reservoir simulations performed for a single site demonstrated that the Broom Creek Formation may be capable of receiving up to 42,000 tonnes of injected H 2 over 7 months via one well. H 2 recovery took place over 5 months, resulting in approximately 26,000 tonnes (~62% without cushion gas [CG]). This work suggests water production may be important and subsequent cycles of injection and production may perform more efficiently; however, significant site-specific work in the future is needed to assess actual reservoir performance of injection and withdrawal of H 2 storage. For oil reservoir potential, a multiple-well model was used to simulate injection of approximately 32,000 tonnes of H 2 into a single wellbore while simultaneously producing in place reservoir fluids from four offset wells to maintain reservoir pressure. The simulation results suggested a high recovery (~98%); in addition, cost advantages through existing infrastructure could be realized. Challenges in this reservoir include vi managing gas purity and leakage risks. In both scenarios, production of H 2 takes place in a single-well scenario with 10 cycles (7 months of injection and 5 months of production) over 10 years. Finally, the use of engineered caverns in the Dunhan Salt was evaluated, and the results suggest that while they have a smaller capacity (<1000 tonnes per cavern), they exhibit nearly complete gas recovery (>99%), fast response times, and low purity risk. While caverns in North Dakota may be smaller in capacity, fields can be developed in galleries to accommodate the volumetric needs and rapid turnaround times necessary to meet market demands. Geographic limitations and thin salt intervals in North Dakota may represent less total storage potential than salt domes elsewhere, but significant opportunities exist to expand this market for gas storage in North Dakota. A basinwide assessment was performed to estimate a first-of-its-kind value for H 2 storage on a large scale. DOE’s SHASTA-HELP, combined with EERC simulation work, was used to perform the assessment. Estimated H 2 storage potential varied widely for each formation type. The Broom Creek saline formation was estimated to have a storage potential of approximately 1.7–90.5 million tonnes (MMt). The DLM oil reservoirs were estimated to have 0.07–0.19 MMt of capacity. Notably, each of these estimates relies on significant assumptions regarding reservoir thickness, porosity, permeability, and CG needed for operation. Much research is needed to understand the true site-specific storage resource potential of each formation. Using the Dunham Salt Interval for cavern development may result in as much as 4.79 MMt (up to 2.87 MMt working gas) of H 2 storage potential. An important note for consideration is that the values presented here need significantly more geological characterization and engineering assessments prior to gaining confidence in performance. This will be a focal point for future research and development needs. The basinwide evaluation also indicated that North Dakota has significant H 2 generation potential, with estimates up to a possible 13 MMt annually, suggesting a substantial opportunity for H 2 market development and thus the need for commercial-scale H 2 storage to facilitate growth and resilience. Key Recommendations 1. Conduct detailed site characterization (3D seismic, well logs, core sampling) to reduce geologic uncertainty. 2. Perform techno-economic analyses incorporating market, regulatory, and incentive frameworks. 3. Investigate long-term interactions among H 2 , CGs, well materials, and formations to assess risks. 4. Develop pilot- and field-scale demonstrations to validate models and establish best practices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Development of a 95-Year Solar Dataset for Resource Adequacy Studies

Long-term high-resolution solar data provides enhanced understanding of variability of solar generation and enhances our ability to develop strategies for a resilient and reliable electric grid under high deployment of solar energy. Therefore, it is important to develop long-term synthetic datasets that can provide multiple occurrences of various severe weather scenarios that are expected to test the limits of resource adequacy under scenarios contain various energy generation sources. Examples of such scenarios could be long periods of high temperatures when demand for electricity is high or periods where high winds could lead to a shut-down of transmission lines for long periods of time to ensure fire safety. NREL has developed the first version of such a dataset covering a 95-year period covering 2006-2100 at a 4km hourly resolution. This dataset contains all variables necessary to calculate solar generation. During development of this dataset, we focused on creating unbiased, high-resolution solar irradiance through statistical downscaling methods, using Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) as input. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) containing over 25 years of observations was used to calibrate the statistical downscaling models. This presentation will outline the primary steps in developing this dataset, including (1) regridding RCM data to a common grid at 20-km resolution, (2) correcting RCM biases with NSRDB, (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar and ancillary data. Additionally, we will present an evaluation of the downscaled data against the NSRDB across various zones in the CONUS. Lastly, we will present a user guide for accessing the datasets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events. Usage Notes We presented a long term (2001-2020) and comprehensive data inventory of historical extreme events with daily temporal resolution covering the separate spatial extents of CONUS (0.5°×0.5°) and PNW(1km×1km) for various applications and studies. The dataset with 0.5°×0.5° resolution for CONUS can be used to help build more accurate climate models for the entire CONUS, which can help in understanding long-term climate trends, including changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, predicting future extreme events as well as understanding the implications of extreme events on society and the environment. The data can also be applied for risk accessment of the extremes. For example, ML/AI models can be developed to predict wildfire risk or forecast HWs by analyzing historical weather data, and past fires or heateave , allowing for early warnings and risk mitigation strategies. Using this dataset, AI-driven risk assessment models can also be built to identify vulnerable energy and utilities infrastructure, imrpove grid resilience and suggest adaptations to withstand extreme weather events. The high-resolution 1km×1km dataset ove PNW are advantageous for real-time, localized and detailed applications. It can enhance the accuracy of early warning systems for extreme weather events, helping authorities and communities prepare for and respond to disasters more effectively. For example, ML models can be developed to provide localized HW predictions for specific neighborhoods or cities, enabling residents and local emergency services to take targeted actions; the assessment of drought severity in specific communities or watersheds within the PNW can help local authorities manage water resources more effectively.

Lin, Xinming↗

Benefits and Challenges of California Offshore Wind Electricity: An Updated Assessment

Offshore wind (OSW) technology has recently been included in California’s plans to achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045. As an emerging technology, many features of OSW are changing more rapidly than established renewable options and are shaped by local circumstances in unique ways that limit transferrable experiences globally. This paper fills a gap in the literature by providing an updated technological assessment of OSW in California to determine its viability and competitiveness in the state’s electricity generation mix to achieve its near-term energy and environmental goals. Through a critical synthesis and extrapolation of technical, social, and economic analyses, we identify several major improvements in its potential. First, we note that while estimates of OSW’s costs per MWh of installed capacity have generally documented and projected a long-term decline, recent technical, microeconomic, and macroeconomic factors have caused significant backsliding of this momentum. Second, we project that the potential dollar value benefits of OSW’s greenhouse gas reduction capabilities have increased by one to two orders of magnitude, primarily due to major upward revisions of the social cost of carbon. Several co-benefits, including enhanced reliability, economic growth, and environmental justice, look to be increasingly promising due to a combination of technological advances and policy initiatives. Despite these advancements, OSW continues to face several engineering and broader challenges. We assess the current status of these challenges, as well as current and future strategies to address them. We conclude that OSW is now overall an even more attractive electricity-generating option than at the beginning of this decade.

Rose, Adam (ORCID:0000000333477684)↗

Over three decades, and counting, of near-surface turbulent flux measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility

Processes mediating the coupling of terrestrial, aquatic, biospheric, and atmospheric systems influence weather, climate, and ecosystem dynamics via transfer of energy, momentum, water, and carbon (or other species). These exchange processes are quantified by measurements of near-surface turbulent fluxes. Understanding processes at these interfaces provides insight toward understanding and predicting current and future states within the Earth system. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has been conducting measurements of near-surface turbulent fluxes since the early 1990s at long-term fixed locations and shorter-term mobile deployments across the Earth. ARM has utilized two established methods for conducting these measurements: energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) and eddy covariance (EC). Primary measurements from the former include sensible and latent heat flux, while the latter also measures fluxes of momentum and carbon (primarily carbon dioxide, with methane fluxes measured at two locations to date). The EBBR systems have been deployed at 22 locations, and, to date, the EC systems have been deployed at over 50 sites, with plans for additional novel site locations in the future. Herein, the history, evolution, and key aspects of these instrument systems are documented, along with information on data quality assurance and post-processing, as well as best use practices. Additionally, three data validation experiments were recently conducted, and their key findings are summarized. Finally, ancillary datasets acquired by ARM, which can contextualize and aid interpretation of the near-surface turbulent flux measurements, are discussed. The datasets described herein include the eddy correlation flux measurement system: 30ECOR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1879993, Sullivan et al., 1997), 30QCECOR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1097546, Gaustad, 2003), ECORSF (https://doi.org/10.5439/1494128, Sullivan et al., 2019a), and associated AmeriFlux and Methane Value-Added Product, AMCMETHANE (https://doi.org/10.5439/1508268, Billesbach, 2011); the energy balance Bowen ratio system: 30EBBR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1023895, Sullivan et al., 1993) and 30BAEBBR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1027268, Gaustad and Xie, 1993); and the carbon dioxide flux measurement system: CO2FLX (https://doi.org/10.5439/1287574, https://doi.org/10.5439/1287575, https://doi.org/10.5439/1287576, Koontz et al., 2015a, b, c; https://doi.org/10.5439/1989774, https://doi.org/10.5439/1989776, https://doi.org/10.5439/1992202, Biraud and Chan, 2002a, b, c). These data can be found by searching the above data stream names at https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/#/results/ (last access: 8 September 2025).

Sullivan, Ryan C. [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗

Advancing uncertainty characterization for understanding projected water scarcity in multi-sector, multi-actor river basins across scales.

Invited Talk at AGU Fall Meeting 2023 Modeling how human institutions and infrastructure interact with the water cycle is essential to better understand the vulnerability, and resilience of water resources systems from the local to the global scale. This is especially true when investigating multi-sector, multi-actor responses to the effects of long-term changes and short-term shocks. It is also well recognized that uncertainty present throughout the modeling cycle (e.g., in data, functional relations, and model coupling approaches) limits our ability to trace the interactive dynamics of human-water systems, as well as to quantify their implications for management and planning. Systems with large numbers of diverse stakeholders further compound this challenge, as uncertain drivers and complex dynamics might have very disparate effects on water users. The work presented is conducted through the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Science Focus Area, which explores how human and natural systems co-evolve in response to change. Through this multi-year effort, we have developed exploratory modeling methods to better characterize how the uncertain human and natural drivers of water scarcity yield consequential vulnerabilities in institutionally complex, multi-sectoral systems. This talk will specifically present on a series of uncertainty characterization experiments performed in the Upper Colorado River Basin, a sub-basin of the Colorado with thousands of water users. These complementary and systematic experiments are aimed at understanding: How are various uncertain stressors (e.g., climate change, demand growth) affecting the diverse water users of this basin in terms of water shortage? What are the key drivers of this shortage for each user? Methods and results from this work are used to address additional questions on the ability of adaptation to modulate the effects of these uncertain drivers, and on their compounding effects across spatial scales and through sectoral interactions.

Hadjimichael, Antonia↗

TRAILS Output Files

Overview This data repository contains ZIP files that store compressed versions of the output of running the WaterPaths utility planning and management tool in the DU Re-Evaluation mode (to download the tool, please see this GitHub repository). The tool was used to simulate the six-utility North Carolina Research Triangle problem. Details on the contents of each ZIP file can be seen below. Data details Temporal range: Weekly data for 2,344 weeks from 2015 to 2060 (45 years). Spatial range: Six water utilities in the North Carolina Research Triangle region (0: Chapel Hil/OWASA, 1: Durham, 2: Cary, 3: Raleigh, 4: Pittsboro, and 5: Chatham) File types: CSV and OUT Different solutions available The solution numbers correspond to the different pathway strategies (henceforth referred to as "solutions") discussed in paper's main and supporting text (abstract and link to the paper here). They are as follows: Sol92: The Durham-focused pathway strategy Sol132: The Raleigh-focused pathway strategy Sol140: The regionally-robust pathway strategy Objectives files These files can be accessed by unzipping solXX_objectives_pathways.zip that contains 1,000 Objectives_RDMXX_solsXX_to_XX.csv files. Each CSV file will consist of a row representing all the objective values for that specific solution, while every six columns represents the reliability, restriction frequency, infrastructure net present value ($ mil), peak financial cost, worst-case cost, and unit cost ($ per MG; in that order) for each of the six utilities. There will be 1,000 such files, denoting the performance of the six utilities across the 1,000 deeply uncertain states of the world (DU SOWs). Pathway files These files can be accessed by unzipping solXX_objectives_pathways.zip that contains 1,000 Pathways_sXX_RDMXX.out file. Each OUT corresponds to the set of infrastructure being triggered in a specific DU SOW, and each file will have the name file will consist of four tab-delimited columns that are described as follows: Realization: The realization in which an infrastructure options being triggered utility: The utility currently triggering infrastructure week: The week in which a specific infrastructure option is being triggered infra.: The infrastructure option being triggered If the OUT file contains only the header line, no infrastructure was triggered for that specific DU SOW. Policies files These files can be obtained by unzipping Policies.zip. Each of the 1,000 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly water use restriction policies for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: 0rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 0 (values between 0 and 1) 1rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 1 (values between 0 and 1) 2rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 2 (values between 0 and 1) 3rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 3 (values between 0 and 1) 4rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 4 (values between 0 and 1) 5rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 5 (values between 0 and 1) 0transf: transfer volume for utility 0 (in MGD) 1transf: transfer volume for utility 1 (in MGD) 2transf: transfer volume for utility 2 (in MGD) 3transf: transfer volume for utility 3 (in MGD) 4transf: transfer volume for utility 4 (in MGD) 5transf: transfer volume for utility 5 (in MGD) Water Sources files These files can be obtained by unzipping WaterSources_subset.zip. Each of the 100 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly state variables at each water source for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: Xvolume: available water volume from source X (in MGD) Xs_area: surface area of source X (in ACF) Xdemand: demand drawn from a water source from source X (in MGD) Xup_spill: upstream spillage from source X (in MGD) Xww_inflow: wastewater inflow from source X (in MGD) Xcatch_inflow: upstream catchment inflow to source X (in MGD) Xevap: evaporation multiplier for source X (values between 0 and 1) Xds_spill: downstream spillage from source X (in MGD) X_Y_alloc_cap: the allocated capacity from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) X_Y_alloc_dem: the allocated demand from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) Xtrmt_alloc_Y: the allocated treatment capacity from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) Utilities files These files can be obtained by unzipping Utilities_subset.zip. Each of the 100 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly state variables at each utility for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: Xst_vol: total available storage volume of utility X (in MG) Xcapacity: total storage capacity of utility X (in MG) Xnet_inf: : net inflow for all storage infrastructure for utility X (in MGD) Xst_rof: short term ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xst_stor_rof: short-term storage ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xst_trmt_rof: short-term treatment ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_rof: long-term ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_stor_rof: long-term storage ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_trmt_rof: long-term treatment ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xrest_demand: restricted demand for utility X (in MGD) Xunrest_demand: unrestricted demand for utility X (in MGD) Xunfulf_demand: unfulfilled demand for utility X (in MGD) Xwastewater: wastewater return for utility X (in MGD) Xtreat_capacity: total treatment capacity for utility X (in MG) Xcont_fund: reserve (contingency) fund balance for utility X Xins_pout: insurance payout for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xins_price: insurance price for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xinfra_npv: infrastructure net present value for utility ($mil) Xst_vol: total available storage volume of utility X (in MG) Xdebt_serv: debt service for utility X (usually once per year if the infrastructure is triggered; % annual volumetric revenue) Xstor_vol: total stored volume (in MGD) Xobs_ann_dem: observed annual demand for utility X (in MGD) Xproj_dem: projected annual demand for utility X (in MGD) Xpv_debt_serv: present value of debt service payments for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xgross_rev: gross revenue for utility X ($mil) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

Artificial Intelligence↗