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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Operator learning for predicting multiscale bubble growth dynamics

We report simulating and predicting multiscale problems that couple multiple physics and dynamics across many orders of spatiotemporal scales is a great challenge that has not been investigated systematically by deep neural networks (DNNs). Herein, we develop a framework based on operator regression, the so-called deep operator network (DeepONet), with the long-term objective to simplify multiscale modeling by avoiding the fragile and time-consuming “hand-shaking” interface algorithms for stitching together heterogeneous descriptions of multiscale phenomena. To this end, as a first step, we investigate if a DeepONet can learn the dynamics of different scale regimes, one at the deterministic macroscale and the other at the stochastic microscale regime with inherent thermal fluctuations. Specifically, we test the effectiveness and accuracy of the DeepONet in predicting multirate bubble growth dynamics, which is described by a Rayleigh–Plesset (R–P) equation at the macroscale and modeled as a stochastic nucleation and cavitation process at the microscale by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD). First, we generate data using the R–P equation for multirate bubble growth dynamics caused by randomly time-varying liquid pressures drawn from Gaussian random fields (GRFs). Our results show that properly trained DeepONets can accurately predict the macroscale bubble growth dynamics and can outperform long short-term memory networks. We also demonstrate that the DeepONet can extrapolate accurately outside the input distribution using only very few new measurements. Subsequently, we train the DeepONet with DPD data corresponding to stochastic bubble growth dynamics. Although the DPD data are noisy and we only collect sparse data points on the trajectories, the trained DeepONet model is able to predict accurately the mean bubble dynamics for time-varying GRF pressures. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that DeepONets can be employed to unify the macroscale and microscale models of the multirate bubble growth problem, hence providing new insight into the role of operator regression via DNNs in tackling realistic multiscale problems and in simplifying modeling with heterogeneous descriptions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonlinear proper orthogonal decomposition for convection-dominated flows

Autoencoder techniques find increasingly common use in reduced order modeling as a means to create a latent space. This reduced order representation offers a modular data-driven modeling approach for nonlinear dynamical systems when integrated with a time series predictive model. In this Letter, we put forth a nonlinear proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) framework, which is an end-to-end Galerkin-free model combining autoencoders with long short-term memory networks for dynamics. By eliminating the projection error due to the truncation of Galerkin models, a key enabler of the proposed nonintrusive approach is the kinematic construction of a nonlinear mapping between the full-rank expansion of the POD coefficients and the latent space where the dynamics evolve. We test our framework for model reduction of a convection-dominated system, which is generally challenging for reduced order models. Our approach not only improves the accuracy, but also significantly reduces the computational cost of training and testing.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid neural architecture: Online attosecond x-ray characterization

The emergence of high-repetition-rate x-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs), such as SLAC’s LCLS-II, serves as our canonical example for autonomous controls that necessitate high-throughput diagnostics paired with streaming computational pipelines capable of single-shot analysis with extremely low latency. We present the deterministic characterization with an integrated parallelizable hybrid resolver architecture, a hybrid machine learning framework designed for fast, accurate analysis of XFEL diagnostics using angular streaking-based sinogram images. This architecture integrates convolutional neural networks and bidirectional long short-term memory models to denoise input, identify x-ray sub-spike features, and extract sub-spike relative delays with sub-30 attosecond temporal resolution. Deployed on low-latency hardware, it achieves over 10 kHz throughput with 168.3 μs inference latency, indicating scalability to 14 kHz with field-programmable gate array integration. By transforming regression tasks into classification problems and leveraging optimized error encoding, we achieve high precision with low-latency performance that is critical for real-time streaming event selection and experimental control feedback signals. This represents a key development in real-time control pipelines for next-generation autonomous science, generally, and high repetition-rate x-ray experiments in particular.

Accelerator Physics (physics.acc-ph)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing phosphorus loss despite widespread concentration decline in US rivers

The loss of phosphorous (P) from the land to aquatic systems has polluted waters and threatened food production worldwide. Systematic trend analysis of P, a nonrenewable resource, has been challenging, primarily due to sparse and inconsistent historical data. Here, we leveraged intensive hydrometeorological data and the recent renaissance of deep learning approaches to fill data gaps and reconstruct temporal trends. We trained a multitask long short-term memory model for total P (TP) using data from 430 rivers across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Trend analysis of reconstructed daily records (1980–2019) shows widespread decline in concentrations, with declining, increasing, and insignificantly changing trends in 60%, 28%, and 12% of the rivers, respectively. Concentrations in urban rivers have declined the most despite rising urban population in the past decades; concentrations in agricultural rivers however have mostly increased, suggesting not-as-effective controls of nonpoint sources in agriculture lands compared to point sources in cities. TP loss, calculated as fluxes by multiplying concentration and discharge, however exhibited an overall increasing rate of 6.5% per decade at the CONUS scale over the past 40 y, largely due to increasing river discharge. Results highlight the challenge of reducing TP loss that is complicated by changing river discharge in a warming climate.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explaining System-Level Prognostics with Established Machine Learning Methods

System-level prognostics is crucial for ensuring reliability and enabling predictive maintenance in complex systems with interconnected components. This study presents a framework that integrates data-driven methods to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of a subsystem under multiple and concurrent faults within a nuclear power plant system with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). A nuclear power plant (NPP) operation was simulated to model the degradation behavior of NPP components, and four machine learning models—Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—were evaluated for prognostics with a novel system RUL parameter. The LSTM model demonstrated potential superior repeatability, while SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for explainability provided consistent and trustworthy global explanations. In contrast, LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) offered localized interpretability but showed reduced stability for sequential data. Key findings include the interplay between component-level degradation and system-wide performance, with LSTM effectively capturing these dynamics through sequence-level predictions. The XAI techniques enhanced transparency by identifying critical features influencing model predictions and aligning with domain knowledge. Furthermore, this framework has significant implications for improving trust and understanding in predictive maintenance, particularly in safety-critical industries like nuclear energy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhancement of Unsteady and 3D Aerodynamics Models using Machine Learning

Unsteady aerodynamics will be an important part of the floating wind turbines of the future operating under high shear across the rotor disk coupled with platform motion and atmospheric turbulence. We develop an unsteady aerodynamics and dynamic stall model using a long short-term memory variant of recurrent neural networks. The neural network model is trained using the oscillating airfoil data set from Ohio State University. The predictions from our machine learning (ML)-based model show good agreement with the experimental data and other state-of-the-art dynamic stall models for a wide range of airfoils, Reynolds numbers and reduced frequencies. In some cases the predictions are better than the Beddoes-Leishman model implementation in OpenFAST, when using the default coefficients. The ML-based model is also able to capture the key physics associated with dynamic stall, such as the precedence of moment stall before lift stall and cycle-to-cycle variations in the aerodynamic response. The new unsteady aerodynamics model is expected to improve prediction of fatigue loads for yaw-based wake-steering control scenarios in actuator-line and actuator-disc simulations of wind farms. Our methodology for training the ML-model provides a pathway for improving design level tools using high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations in the future.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting weather impacts on corn production in a data-limited region using a transfer learning approach

The stability of food supply and prices may depend more on annual changes in yields from year-to-year variability in weather than on longer-term average changes from changing climatic conditions. However, the absence of high-quality data on crop yields at fine spatial resolutions in many regions of the world makes it challenging to statistically model their response to interannual variability in weather patterns. Therefore, there is a need for empirical methods that can project annual crop yield changes even in limited data regions. Here, we propose a transfer learning algorithm that uses high spatial resolution data from one region to project yields in another region with more limited data. The goal of our work is to understand what data types can be beneficial for transferring learning from a source region to a very different target region with more limited data. We utilize Long Short-Term Memory to develop a transfer learning model that is trained on historical county-level corn yield in the United States and predicts district-level corn yield variations in India. Even using smaller amounts of data in India, simulating a data-scarce region, we achieve an average root mean square error of 0.48 bu acre−1 in predicting interannual yield variations. Using Shapley values to interpret results, we explore the contribution of the different weather parameters to interannual yield variability and find a larger influence of precipitation-related variables. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of this method for transferring models of weather impacts on crop yields trained on a data-rich country to one with more limited data. It suggests the potential of applying the transfer learning model to mitigate the need for extensive raw data globally.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [ORNL] (ORCID:000000031674419↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ultra-low latency recurrent neural network inference on FPGAs for physics applications with hls4ml

Abstract Recurrent neural networks have been shown to be effective architectures for many tasks in high energy physics, and thus have been widely adopted. Their use in low-latency environments has, however, been limited as a result of the difficulties of implementing recurrent architectures on field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). In this paper we present an implementation of two types of recurrent neural network layers—long short-term memory and gated recurrent unit—within the hls4ml framework. We demonstrate that our implementation is capable of producing effective designs for both small and large models, and can be customized to meet specific design requirements for inference latencies and FPGA resources. We show the performance and synthesized designs for multiple neural networks, many of which are trained specifically for jet identification tasks at the CERN Large Hadron Collider.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine-learned closure of URANS for stably stratified turbulence: connecting physical timescales & data hyperparameters of deep time-series models

Stably stratified turbulence (SST), a model that is representative of the turbulence found in the oceans and atmosphere, is strongly affected by fine balances between forces and becomes more anisotropic in time for decaying scenarios. Moreover, there is a limited understanding of the physical phenomena described by some of the terms in the Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (URANS) equations—used to numerically simulate approximate solutions for such turbulent flows. Rather than attempting to model each term in URANS separately, it is attractive to explore the capability of machine learning (ML) to model groups of terms, i.e. to directly model the force balances. We develop deep time-series ML for closure modeling of the URANS equations applied to SST. We consider decaying SST which are homogeneous and stably stratified by a uniform density gradient, enabling dimensionality reduction. We consider two time-series ML models: long short-term memory and neural ordinary differential equation. Both models perform accurately and are numerically stable in a posteriori (online) tests. Furthermore, we explore the data requirements of the time-series ML models by extracting physically relevant timescales of the complex system. We find that the ratio of the timescales of the minimum information required by the ML models to accurately capture the dynamics of the SST corresponds to the Reynolds number of the flow. The current framework provides the backbone to explore the capability of such models to capture the dynamics of high-dimensional complex dynamical system like SST flows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simple, low-cost and accurate data-driven geophysical forecasting with learned kernels

Modelling geophysical processes as low-dimensional dynamical systems and regressing their vector field from data is a promising approach for learning emulators of such systems. We show that when the kernel of these emulators is also learned from data (using kernel flows, a variant of cross-validation), then the resulting data-driven models are not only faster than equation-based models but are easier to train than neural networks such as the long short-term memory neural network. In addition, they are also more accurate and predictive than the latter. When trained on geophysical observational data, for example the weekly averaged global sea-surface temperature, considerable gains are also observed by the proposed technique in comparison with classical partial differential equation-based models in terms of forecast computational cost and accuracy. When trained on publicly available re-analysis data for the daily temperature of the North American continent, we observe significant improvements over classical baselines such as climatology and persistence-based forecast techniques. Although our experiments concern specific examples, the proposed approach is general, and our results support the viability of kernel methods (with learned kernels) for interpretable and computationally efficient geophysical forecasting for a large diversity of processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Privacy Preserving Model-Free Optimization and Control Framework for Demand Response from Residential Thermal Loads

We consider the problem of optimizing the cost of procuring electricity for a large collection of homes managed by a load serving entity, by pre-cooling or pre-heating the thermal inertial loads in the homes to avoid procuring power during periods of peak electricity pricing. We would like to accomplish this objective in a completely privacy-preserving and model-free manner, that is, without direct access to the state variables (temperatures or power consumption) or the dynamical models (thermal characteristics) of individual homes, while guaranteeing personal comfort constraints of the consumers. We propose a two-stage optimization and control framework to address this problem. In the first stage, we use a long short-term memory (LSTM) network to predict hourly electricity prices, based on historical pricing data and weather forecasts. Given the hourly price forecast and thermal models of the homes, the problem of designing an optimal power consumption trajectory that minimizes the total electricity procurement cost for the collection of thermal loads can be formulated as a large-scale integer program (with millions of variables) due to the on-off cyclical dynamics of such loads. We provide a simple heuristic relaxation to make this large-scale optimization problem model-free and computationally tractable. In the second stage, we translate the results of this optimization problem into distributed open-loop control laws that can be implemented at individual homes without measuring or estimating their state variables, while simultaneously ensuring consumer comfort constraints. We demonstrate the performance of this approach on a large-scale test case comprising of 500 homes in the Houston area and benchmark its performance against a direct model-based optimization and control solution.

Sivaranjani, S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cyber-physical security framework for Photovoltaic Farms

With the evolution of PV converters, a growing number of vulnerabilities in PV farms are exposing to cyber threats. To mitigate the influence of cyber-attack on PV farms, it is necessary to study attacks' impact and propose detection methods. To meet this requirement, a cyber-physical security framework is proposed for PV farms. Data integrity attacks (DIAs) are studied on different control loops. As μPMU is gaining in popularity, a lower sampling rate of μPMU data is applied to develop a detection algorithm. We have evaluated two data-driven methods, which are support vector machine (SVM) and long short-term memory (LSTM). Lastly, the data-driven methods verify the feasibility of μPMU data in attack detection.

Attack Impact Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven Cyberattack Detection for Photovoltaic (PV) Systems through Analyzing Micro-PMU Data

With increasing exposure to software-based sensing and control, Photovoltaic (PV) systems are facing higher risks of cyber attacks. Here, to ensure the system stability and minimize potential economic losses, it is imperative to monitor operating states and detect attacks at the early stage. To meet this demand, Micro-Phasor Measurement Units (μPMU) are increasingly popular in monitoring distribution networks. However, due to the relatively low sampling rate, μPMU has not yet been used to detect and classify cyber-attacks in power electronics enabled smart grid. To our knowledge, this is one of the first attempts to use μPMU to detect cyber attacks that degrade the performance of power electronics systems. We propose to apply data-driven methods on micro-PMU data to implement attack detection. We have evaluated data-driven methods, including decision tree (DT), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), long short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional neural network (CNN). The proposed CNN model achieves the required performances with the highest 99.23% accuracy and 0.9963 F 1 score.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Dynamic Modeling of Grid-Connected PV Inverter Using Bi-LSTM-Based AI Model

Power electronic converters (PECs) are widely used in modern power systems to facilitate the interconnection between various AC or DC sources and loads. Because of the extensive integration, the power system has grown into a more dynamic system in which the dynamics of the PECs must be adequately modeled. The paper presents a new bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) method for evaluating grid-connected inverter-based resources (IBR) dynamics. The method is tested using real hardware data from a grid -connected commercial inverter in laboratory experiments. Results show the Bi-LSTM model accurately reproduces the detailed IBR model's dynamics, even when the internal structure is unknown and parameters are unknown, preventing the disclosure of the manufacturer's confidential data.

Subedi, Sunil [ORNL] (ORCID:000000034069090X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transfer Learning Trained LSTM Models for Household Load Profile Forecasting

Grid edge renewable energy resources, such as rooftop solar photovoltaics, closely interact with consumer load profiles. Therefore, forecasting future electricity demand, ideally at the individual household level, is indispensable. In this paper, we present a transfer learning enhanced household load profile forecasting method. First, we tune a long short-term memory forecasting model to perform day-ahead prediction of household electricity load profiles. Then we improve these individualized models using transfer learning, and we use k-means clustering to create optimal source data sets. We find average improvements of 4.38% (largest improvement of 10.71%) when the entire data set was used to train the source model and 2.45% (largest improvement of 11.57%) in the mean absolute error when households were first clustered and used to train separate source models for each cluster. We find that transfer learning with clustered data can effectively boost the forecasting performance of the LSTM models. We use realistic household power measurements for 148 real residential households in Austin, Texas.

deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Securing Smart Manufacturing: Detection of Cyber-Physical Attacks in CNC-Based Systems

As Industry 4.0 advances, the integration of computer numerical control (CNC) machines and advanced manufacturing technologies is transforming production into smart manufacturing systems that blend physical and digital processes as cyber-physical systems. However, this increased cyber-physical connectivity exposes manufacturing systems to cyber threats that can cause severe operational and financial disruptions. This paper presents a comparative study on cyber attacks and anomaly detection techniques in manufacturing, focusing on network traffic from CNC machines. The data extracted from network packets includes machine commands and control signals exchanged between the machine's interface and control system, crucial for maintaining operational integrity. We explore two types of cyber attacks, design modification and command injection, which pose substantial risks to CNC machine productivity and system integrity. Our investigation involves experiments on a real CNC system, highlighting the urgent need for effective detection mechanisms. To address these threats, we evaluate three anomaly detection methods: dynamic time warping (DTW), rolling average, and a deep learning, long short-term memory (LSTM) time-series-based autoencoder. Each is assessed for its effectiveness in identifying anomalous behaviors caused by the attacks. Our findings demonstrate the unique strengths and limitations of each detection technique, providing a deeper understanding of their applicability in realworld manufacturing environments. The comparative analysis indicates that while certain methods are highly effective against specific attack types, others offer broader applicability across different attacks. This study contributes to the accurate detection of anomalies in CNC machining processes, thereby enhancing the reliability and security of smart manufacturing systems against diverse cyber threats.

Williams, Bethanie [Tennessee Technological Univer↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Aware Deep Learning for Fault Prediction Using Multivariate Time Series Signals

The superconducting radio-frequency cavities are a crucial component of the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab. When a cavity faults, beam delivery to experimental end users is disrupted. Prediction of cavity faults prior to onset is essential to reduce operation and maintenance costs. In this work, a parallel long short-term memory (LSTM)-convolution neural network (CNN)-based deep learning (DL) model is proposed to predict impending faults using pre-fault signals. Further, we introduce an uncertainty quantification approach using Monte Carlo dropout with the LSTM-CNN model to ascertain confidence in the prediction. The model was tested using multivariate time series signals from stable cavity operations and before faults. Initial results show that on the test dataset, the model can identify impending faults before their onset with an average 10-fold cross validation accuracy of 97.39% and a standard deviation of 0.12% using a 100-ms time window. It is also observed that the model performs better as the prediction time moves closer to the fault onset. For additional context, we compare the performance of the model with three machine-learning-based (ML) fault prediction models. Our proposed parallel LSTM-CNN-based DL method shows better performance than the ML-based methods.

Rahman, Md Monibor↗
DOE OSTI2024

EV Forecasting-Based Model Predictive Control for Distribution System Congestion Mitigation

The uncoordinated charging of electric vehicles (EVs) in time and space brings congestion issues to the distribution network. This paper proposes an EV charging demand forecasting-based model predictive control (MPC) method for distribution system congestion management. To effectively forecast the time-series EV station charging demand, a hybrid forecasting model that integrates the long short-term memory network (LSTM) and Transformer is proposed. The Transformer-LSTM model is trained using a one-year real historical charging dataset of EV stations to forecast future charging demand in 15-minute intervals. This informs the MPC for distribution network congestion management and minimization of PV curtailment. Numerical results carried out on the modified IEEE 123-bus distribution system demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively resolve line congestion issues through EV smart charging and PV curtailment while outperforming other benchmarks.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,SOLAR ENERGY↗