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At least 307 records · Page 17

Orbital debris removal using ground-based lasers

Orbiting the Earth are spent rocket stages, non-functioning satellites, hardware from satellite deployment and staging, fragments of exploded spacecraft, and other relics of decades of space exploration: orbital debris. The United States Space Command tracks and maintains a catalog of the largest objects. The catalog contains over 7000 objects. Recent studies have assessed the debris environment in an effort to estimate the number of smaller particles and the probability of a collision causing catastrophic damage to a functioning spacecraft. The results of the studies can be used to show, for example, that the likelihood of a collision of a particle larger than about one centimeter in diameter with the International Space Station during a 10-year period is a few percent, roughly in agreement with earlier estimates for Space Station Freedom. Particles greater than about one centimeter in diameter pose the greatest risk to shielded spacecraft. There are on the order of 105 such particles in low Earth orbit. The United States National Space Policy, begun in 1988, is to minimize debris consistent with mission requirements. Measures such as venting unused fuel to prevent explosions, retaining staging and deployment hardware, and shielding against smaller debris have been taken by the U.S. and other space faring nations. There is at present no program to remove debris from orbit. The natural tendency for upper atmospheric drag to remove objects from low Earth orbit is more than balanced by the increase in the number of debris objects from new launches and fragmentation of existing objects. In this paper I describe a concept under study by the Program Development Laboratory of Marshall Space Flight Center and others to remove debris with a ground-based laser. A longer version of this report, including figures, is available from the author.

Taylor, Charles R.↗

The Necessity of Functional Analysis for Space Exploration Programs

As NASA moves toward expanded commercial spaceflight within its human exploration capability, there is increased emphasis on how to allocate responsibilities between government and commercial organizations to achieve coordinated program objectives. The practice of program-level functional analysis offers an opportunity for improved understanding of collaborative functions among heterogeneous partners. Functional analysis is contrasted with the physical analysis more commonly done at the program level, and is shown to provide theoretical performance, risk, and safety advantages beneficial to a government-commercial partnership. Performance advantages include faster convergence to acceptable system solutions; discovery of superior solutions with higher commonality, greater simplicity and greater parallelism by substituting functional for physical redundancy to achieve robustness and safety goals; and greater organizational cohesion around program objectives. Risk advantages include avoidance of rework by revelation of some kinds of architectural and contractual mismatches before systems are specified, designed, constructed, or integrated; avoidance of cost and schedule growth by more complete and precise specifications of cost and schedule estimates; and higher likelihood of successful integration on the first try. Safety advantages include effective delineation of must-work and must-not-work functions for integrated hazard analysis, the ability to formally demonstrate completeness of safety analyses, and provably correct logic for certification of flight readiness. The key mechanism for realizing these benefits is the development of an inter-functional architecture at the program level, which reveals relationships between top-level system requirements that would otherwise be invisible using only a physical architecture. This paper describes the advantages and pitfalls of functional analysis as a means of coordinating the actions of large heterogeneous organizations for space exploration programs.

program management↗

Analysis of the nonlinear propagation of incoherent pulses

The nonlinear propagation of incoherent optical pulses is studied using a normalized nonlinear Schrödinger equation and statistical analysis, demonstrating various regimes that depend on the field’s coherence time and intensity. The quantification of the resulting intensity statistics using probability density functions shows that, in the absence of spatial effects, nonlinear propagation leads to an increase in the likelihood of high intensities in a medium with negative dispersion, and a decrease in a medium with positive dispersion. In the latter regime, nonlinear spatial self-focusing originating from a spatial perturbation can be mitigated, depending on the coherence time and amplitude of the perturbation. These results are benchmarked against the Bespalov–Talanov analysis applied to strictly monochromatic pulses.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Convolutional code performance in planetary entry channels

The planetary entry channel is modeled for communication purposes representing turbulent atmospheric scattering effects. The performance of short and long constraint length convolutional codes is investigated in conjunction with coherent BPSK modulation and Viterbi maximum likelihood decoding. Algorithms for sequential decoding are studied in terms of computation and/or storage requirements as a function of the fading channel parameters. The performance of the coded coherent BPSK system is compared with the coded incoherent MFSK system. Results indicate that: some degree of interleaving is required to combat time correlated fading of channel; only modest amounts of interleaving are required to approach performance of memoryless channel; additional propagational results are required on the phase perturbation process; and the incoherent MFSK system is superior when phase tracking errors are considered.

Modestino, J. W.↗

Massive Black Holes and the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA)

The goals of the USA mission include both astrophysical investigations and fundamental physics tests. The main astrophysical questions concern the space density, growth, mass function, and surroundings of massive black holes. Thus the crucial issue for the USA mission is the likelihood of observing signals from such sources. Four possible sources of this kind are discussed briefly in this paper. It appears plausible, or even likely. that one or more of these types of sources can be detected and studied by LISA.

Blender, Peter L.↗

Resilience Metrics Framework for Solar Photovoltaics

This presentation was given at the Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC) 54 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Photovoltaic (PV) systems are routinely exposed to extreme weather, including wind and hail storms. Historically, most systems have proven to be resilient to such events, but some storms have damaged PV systems, leading to physical and financial loss. Storm hardening measures and specific system attributes can reduce this risk. This work introduces a set of resilience metrics and a framework for quantifying, comparing, and predicting PV system resilience. The framework is divided into two parts: 1) predictive, attribute metrics based on site and component characteristics, and 2) impact metrics that assess post-storm performance. Metrics are weighted and aggregated, producing hazard-specific resilience scores. We derive damage functions from storm-impacted PV systems, establishing a baseline against which post-storm performance can be compared. This damage was widely variable across hail and wind intensities, and field hail damage was less than predicted by laboratory tests, suggesting that system features - in addition to storm conditions - influence damage likelihood. Finally, the metrics framework is demonstrated using three case studies of storm damaged PV systems. Although additional data are needed to create attribute specific damage functions and establish metric weights, this study presents a methodology for evaluating PV resilience and contributes new damage functions to the literature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Bayesian inference for the seismic moment tensor using regional waveforms and a data-derived distribution of velocity models

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used to construct the transfer function employed in the forward model that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedures often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. We attempt to incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a distribution of velocity models calculated in a prior effort based on different and complementary data sets. The posterior distribution of velocity models is then used to construct Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional waveform data. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and can be interpreted in terms of most-probable source-type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Human tolerance to space flight

Medical studies of astronauts and cosmonauts before, during, and after space missions have identified several effects of weightlessness and other factors that influence the ability of humans to tolerate space flight. Weightlessness effects include space motion sickness, cardiovascular abnormalities, reduction in immune system function, loss of red blood cells, loss of bone mass, and muscle atrophy. Extravehicular activity (EVA) increases the likelihood that decompression sickness may occur. Radiation also gives reason for concern about health of crewmembers, and psychological factors are important on long-term flights. Countermeasures that have been used include sensory preadaptation, prebreathing and use of various air mixtures for EVA, loading with water and electrolytes, exercise, use of pharmacological agents and special diets, and psychological support. It appears that humans can tolerate and recover satisfactorily from at least one year of space flight, but a number of conditions must be further ameliorated before long-duration missions can be considered routine.

Huntoon, C. L.↗

Identification of Time-Varying Pilot Control Behavior in Multi-Axis Control Tasks

Recent developments in fly-by-wire control architectures for rotorcraft have introduced new interest in the identification of time-varying pilot control behavior in multi-axis control tasks. In this paper a maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the parameters of a pilot model with time-dependent sigmoid functions to characterize time-varying human control behavior. An experiment was performed by 9 general aviation pilots who had to perform a simultaneous roll and pitch control task with time-varying aircraft dynamics. In 8 different conditions, the axis containing the time-varying dynamics and the growth factor of the dynamics were varied, allowing for an analysis of the performance of the estimation method when estimating time-dependent parameter functions. In addition, a detailed analysis of pilots adaptation to the time-varying aircraft dynamics in both the roll and pitch axes could be performed. Pilot control behavior in both axes was significantly affected by the time-varying aircraft dynamics in roll and pitch, and by the growth factor. The main effect was found in the axis that contained the time-varying dynamics. However, pilot control behavior also changed over time in the axis not containing the time-varying aircraft dynamics. This indicates that some cross coupling exists in the perception and control processes between the roll and pitch axes.

Zaal, Peter M. T.↗

Inferring subhalo effective density slopes from strong lensing observations with neural likelihood-ratio estimation

ABSTRACT Strong gravitational lensing has emerged as a promising approach for probing dark matter (DM) models on sub-galactic scales. Recent work has proposed the subhalo effective density slope as a more reliable observable than the commonly used subhalo mass function. The subhalo effective density slope is a measurement independent of assumptions about the underlying density profile and can be inferred for individual subhaloes through traditional sampling methods. To go beyond individual subhalo measurements, we leverage recent advances in machine learning and introduce a neural likelihood-ratio estimator to infer an effective density slope for populations of subhaloes. We demonstrate that our method is capable of harnessing the statistical power of multiple subhaloes (within and across multiple images) to distinguish between characteristics of different subhalo populations. The computational efficiency warranted by the neural likelihood-ratio estimator over traditional sampling enables statistical studies of DM perturbers and is particularly useful as we expect an influx of strong lensing systems from upcoming surveys.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Shear strain alters the structure and migration mechanism of self-interstitial atoms in copper

Here, we use atomistic modeling to show that externally applied shear strain causes the lowest energy self-interstitial atom (SIA) structure in copper (Cu) to change from a <100>-type dumbbell to a <110>-type dumbbell. Concurrently, SIA migration switches from the 3-D random walk characteristic of <100>-type dumbbells to a 1-D mechanism analogous to that of crowdion SIAs. Furthermore, the relative energies of these two dumbbell structures as a function of strain are well predicted using elastic dipole tensors computed at zero strain, indicating that examination of these tensors may be used to assess the likelihood of strain-induced SIA structure transitions in other materials. Changes in lowest energy SIA structures and associated migration mechanisms stand to impact predictions of SIA behavior in irradiated solids.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Social impact evaluation : Some implications of the specific decisional context approach for anticipatory project assessment with special reference to available alternatives and to techniques of evaluating the social impacts of the anticipated effects of such alternatives

The implications are explored of the specific decision context approach to anticipatory project assessment. More specifically, it is hypothesized that with respect to any given effect of a proposed project or action (mobility, job opportunities, air pollution, population distribution, etc.) such effect will likely differ in probability and/or magnitude from one decisional context to another; that the social desirability or undesirability of a given effect is a function (will differ with) each specific decisional context; that therefore the social impact of such effect will in all likelihood differ with each specific decisional context; and that the social significance of even the dame social impact of a given effect will vary from one decisional context to another when such social impact interacts with (competes with or reinforces) the social impacts of other effects. It also follows from this analysis that the respective roles of scientific method (demonstrable data) and adversarial system will not only differ with each specific decisional context but with each alternative course of action available to the decisional entity in each specific context.

Mayo, L. H.↗

Maximum likelihood identification of aircraft parameters with unsteady aerodynamic modelling

A simplified aerodynamic force model based on the physical principle of Prandtl's lifting line theory and trailing vortex concept has been developed to account for unsteady aerodynamic effects in aircraft dynamics. Longitudinal equations of motion have been modified to include these effects. The presence of convolution integrals in the modified equations of motion led to a frequency domain analysis utilizing Fourier transforms. This reduces the integro-differential equations to relatively simple algebraic equations, thereby reducing computation time significantly. A parameter extraction program based on the maximum likelihood estimation technique is developed in the frequency domain. The extraction algorithm contains a new scheme for obtaining sensitivity functions by using numerical differentiation. The paper concludes with examples using computer generated and real flight data

Keskar, D. A.↗

Maximum likelihood estimation of label imperfections and its use in the identification of mislabeled patterns

The problem of estimating label imperfections and the use of the estimation in identifying mislabeled patterns is presented. Expressions for the maximum likelihood estimates of classification errors and a priori probabilities are derived from the classification of a set of labeled patterns. Expressions also are given for the asymptotic variances of probability of correct classification and proportions. Simple models are developed for imperfections in the labels and for classification errors and are used in the formulation of a maximum likelihood estimation scheme. Schemes are presented for the identification of mislabeled patterns in terms of threshold on the discriminant functions for both two-class and multiclass cases. Expressions are derived for the probability that the imperfect label identification scheme will result in a wrong decision and are used in computing thresholds. The results of practical applications of these techniques in the processing of remotely sensed multispectral data are presented.

Chittineni, C. B.↗

Modulation/demodulation techniques for satellite communications. Part 2: Advanced techniques. The linear channel

A theory is presented for deducing and predicting the performance of transmitter/receivers for bandwidth efficient modulations suitable for use on the linear satellite channel. The underlying principle used is the development of receiver structures based on the maximum-likelihood decision rule. The application of the performance prediction tools, e.g., channel cutoff rate and bit error probability transfer function bounds to these modulation/demodulation techniques.

Omura, J. K.↗

Distributed parameter estimation for NASA Mini-Mast truss through displacement measurements

Most methods of system identification of large flexible structures by far are based on the lumped parameter approach. Because of the considerable computational burden due to the large number of unknown parameters, distributed parameter approach, which greatly decreases the number of unknowns, has being investigated. In this paper a distributed parameter model for the estimation of modal characteristics of NASA Mini-Mast truss has been formulated. Both Bernoulli-Euler beam and Timoshenko beam equations are used to characterize the lateral bending vibrations of the truss. The measurement of the lateral displacement at the tip of the truss is provided to the maximum likelihood estimator. Closed-form solutions of the partial differential equations and closed-form expressions of the sensitivity functions are derived so that the estimation algorithm is highly efficient. The resulting estimates from test data by using Timoshenko beam model are found to be comparable to those derived from finite element analysis.

Huang, Jen-Kuang↗

X-29A Lateral-Directional Stability and Control Derivatives Extracted From High-Angle-of-Attack Flight Data

The lateral-directional stability and control derivatives of the X-29A number 2 are extracted from flight data over an angle-of-attack range of 4 degrees to 53 degrees using a parameter identification algorithm. The algorithm uses the linearized aircraft equations of motion and a maximum likelihood estimator in the presence of state and measurement noise. State noise is used to model the uncommanded forcing function caused by unsteady aerodynamics over the aircraft at angles of attack above 15 degrees. The results supported the flight-envelope-expansion phase of the X-29A number 2 by helping to update the aerodynamic mathematical model, to improve the real-time simulator, and to revise flight control system laws. Effects of the aircraft high gain flight control system on maneuver quality and the estimated derivatives are also discussed. The derivatives are plotted as functions of angle of attack and compared with the predicted aerodynamic database. Agreement between predicted and flight values is quite good for some derivatives such as the lateral force due to sideslip, the lateral force due to rudder deflection, and the rolling moment due to roll rate. The results also show significant differences in several important derivatives such as the rolling moment due to sideslip, the yawing moment due to sideslip, the yawing moment due to aileron deflection, and the yawing moment due to rudder deflection.

Iliff, Kenneth W.↗