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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A Near-Real-Time Model for Predicting Electricity Disruptions in Texas During Winter Storms

There has been an increase in extreme weather events, posing a threat to power grid systems, potentially influenced by factors such as population growth, changes in ecosystems, land cover, and land use in the service area, as well as the growth of certain vegetation types. This research seeks to develop a predictive model to mitigate potential damages caused by future winter storms. This research utilizes the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), incorporating the number of power outages experienced at the county level, geographic details, weather information, and lagged outage and lagged weather data. The developed models were broadly divided into two groups, with six models in each group - one group without optimization and another with optimization, totaling 12 trained models. For model optimization, Bayesian optimization was employed using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as the objective function. In results, when comparing Group 2 (the optimized group) with Group 1 (the non-optimized group), it was found that optimization did not always lead to a reduction in RMSE and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). However, in terms of Mean Directional Accuracy (MDA), while all results in Group 1 were below the baseline accuracy of 0.33, all results in Group 2 exceeded 0.33, with some cases showing an increase of more than three times the baseline. The results indicated that, in the optimized model group, Population and Pressure were the most influential factors when using current weather data and geographical information. When using lagged data, lagged recorded outages and lagged Pressure emerged as the most significant factors. Among the 12 developed models, the L-1-2-O model showed the lowest RMSE and MAE, as well as the highest accuracy, with values of 390.62 households and 168.13 households, respectively. To normalize the RMSE and MAE values, each metric was divided by the average number of households among the counties in Texas. For the L-1-2-O model, the scaled RMSE was 0.88% and the scaled MAE was 0.38%. In terms of MDA, which indicates the accuracy of the prediction direction, the L-1-O model achieved the highest score of 0.41. Although this study focused on Texas, which suffered the greatest impact from the winter storms in 2021, with additional validation, the methodology used in this research could be applied to other regions.

Lee, Jangjae [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, ↗
NASA NTRS1973

Aeroelastic instabilities of hingeless helicopter blades.

In this study the stability boundaries of a hingeless helicopter blade are studied using a system of coupled flap-lag-pitch equations of motion. Divergence and flutter boundaries for the linearized system of equations are presented. Flap-lag, flap-pitch and coupled flap-lag-pitch instabilities in hovering flight are studied. The effect of the torsional degree of freedom on the flap-lag type of instability is investigated. Similarly the effect of lag on the flap pitch type of instability is also considered. Results illustrating these effects, together with the effect of various important blade parameters on blade stability are presented.

Friedmann, P.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Some conclusions regarding the aeroelastic stability of hingeless helicopter blades in hover and in forward flight

In this paper results and conclusions obtained from the study of the aeroelastic instability of hingeless helicopter blades are presented. First, the large amplitude coupled flap-lag equations of motion of a hingeless elastic helicopter blade are solved using an asymptotic expansion procedure in multiple time scales. Both hover and forward flight cases are considered. Stability boundaries and amplitudes of nonlinear response are obtained. From these, the importance of the nonlinear coupling and the effect of the periodic coefficients is determined. Next, using a system of linearized coupled flap-lag-pitch equations in hover, various divergence mechanisms for hingeless blades are shown. Finally, the flutter boundaries for coupled flap-lag-pitch are obtained. The effect of the torsional degree of freedom on the flap-lag type of instability is investigated. Similarly the effect of lag on the flap-pitch type of instability is considered. In addition, the effect of various blade parameters on the stability boundaries is shown.

Friedmann, P.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A theory of rotating stall of multistage axial compressors. III - Limit cycles

A theory of rotating stall, based on single parameters for blade-passage lag and external-flow lag and a given compressor characteristic yields limit cycles in velocity space. These limit cycles are governed by Lienard's equation with the characteristic playing the role of nonlinear damping function. Cyclic integrals of the solution determine stall propagation speed and the effect of rotating stall on average performance. Solution with various line-segment characteristics and various throttle settings are found and discussed. There is generally a limiting flow coefficient beyond which no solution is possible; this probably represents stall recovery. This recovery point is independent of internal compressor lag, but does depend on external lags and on the height-to-width ratio of the diagram. Tall diagrams and small external lags (inlet and diffusor) favor recovery. Suggestions for future theoretical and experimental research are discussed.

Moore, F. K.↗
NASA NTRS1935

Development of the NACA slot-lip aileron

An investigation of the undesirable delayed action, or lag, of the spoiler-type lateral control device led to the development of the NACA slot-lip aileron. The tests were made in the 7- by 10-foot wind tunnel with a 4- by 8-foot wing hinged at the tunnel jet boundary and taken of the motion of the control device under test and of the resulting wing motion. First, the lag, as affected by the fore-and-aft location of retractable ailerons or spoilers was determined. The lag was found to increase regularly as the spoiler was moved from the rear of the wing toward the front. Then a combination of spoilers and fixed slot was developed that, with the spoiler retracting into the forward part of the slot, reduced the time lag to a negligible value. In addition, an arrangement was developed using a hinged aileron-type flap as the upper portion, or lip, of a slot through the wing. This arrangement appears to be usable as a form of lateral control device that shows promise of giving improved control and stability at the high angles of attack through stall, with negligible lag, low control forces, and relatively simple construction.

Weick, Fred E↗
NASA NTRS1994

Evidence for X-ray flux and spectral modulation by absorption in NGC 6814. 1: The nature of the most rapid variability

The Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 6814 was observed using the Japanese X-ray astronomy satellite Ginga in 1990 April and October. The rapid variability characteristically associated with this source was reconfirmed. Specifically, three dips were found in the April observation in which the flux dropped to nearly zero in approximately 300 s. The doubling timescale was approximately 50 s. A similar but separated drop and rise in flux was observed in the October data, different in that the flux did not decrease completely to zero. A detailed analysis of the data around the structures of most rapid variability found spectral variability and lags in flux between different energy bands. Lags were on the order of a few to tens of seconds for the April data, and on the order of tens to a couple of hundred seconds for the October data. The sense of the lags was such that during flux decreases the hard flux lagged, while during flux increases the soft flux lagged. Associated significant apparent hardening of the spectrum at low flux was observed in the April data. Apparent hardening of the spectrum also occurred in the October flux decrease, to a photon index of GAMMA = 0.85; however, the spectrum softened at lowest flux to the index of the predecrease level, GAMMA = 1.54. In the April dips, the line flux was found to decrease significantly. A marginal decrease in line flux was also observed in the October data. The variability of the line flux reconfirmed the result of Kunieda et al. (1990), who found that the line production region must be within approximately 300 light-seconds from the source. To explain the observational results, a variable-absorption model was proposed, in which the column density was assumed to vary as a function of time. Other physical processes, including intrinsic spectral changes and warm absorber models, which could account for the fastest variability, could be ruled out by the results of the data analysis. A primary constraint found for geometrical models is that the material which is doing the absorption must have relatively low ionization (xi less than 100). This result leads to severe constraints on a general orbiting cloud model, requiring high densities (n approximately 10(exp 16)/cu cm) and sheetlike geometry.

Leighly, Karen↗
NASA NTRS1994

Steps toward determination of the size and structure of the broad-line region in active galactic nuclei. 5: Variability of the ultraviolet continuum and emission lines of NGC 3783

We report on the results of intensive ultraviolet spectral monitoring of the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 3783. The nucleus of NGC 3783 was observed with the International Ultraviolet Explorer satellite on a regular basis for a total of 7 months, once every 4 days for the first 172 days and once every other day for the final 50 days. Significant variability was observed in both continuum and emission-line fluxes. The light curves for the continuum fluxes exhibited two well-defined local minima or 'dips,' the first lasting is less than or approximately 20 days and the second is less than or approximately 4 days, with additional episodes of relatively rapid flickering of approximately the same amplitude. As in the case of NGC 5548 (the only other Seyfert galaxy that has been the subject of such an intensive, sustained monitoring effort), the largest continuum variations were seen at the shortest wavelengths, so that the continuum became 'harder' when brighter. The variations in the continuum occurred simultaneously at all wavelengths (delta(t) is less than 2 days). Generally, the amplitude of variability of the emission lines was lower than (or comparable to) that of the continuum. Apart from Mg II (which varied little) and N V (which is relatively weak and badly blended with Ly(alpha), the light curves of the emission lines are very similar to the continuum light curves, in each case with a small systematic delay or 'lag.' As for NGC 5548, the highest ionization lines seem to respond with shorter lags than the lower ionization lines. The lags found for NGC 3783 are considerably shorter than those obtained for NGC 5548, with values of (formally) approximately 0 days for He II + O III), and approximately 4 days for Ly(alpha) and C IV. The data further suggest lags of approximately 4 days for Si IV + O IV) and 8-30 days for Si III + C III). Mg II lagged the 1460 A continuum by approximately 9 days, although this result depends on the method of measuring the line flux and may in fact be due to variability of the underlying Fe II lines. Correlation analysis further shows that the power density spectrum contains substantial unresolved power over timescales of is less than or approximately 2 days, and that the character of the continuum variability may change with time.

Reichert, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Nanoflare vs Footpoint Heating : Observational Signatures

Time lag analysis shows very long time lags between all channel pairs. Impulsive heating cannot address these long time lags. 3D Simulations of footpoint heating shows a similar pattern of time lags (magnitude and distribution) to observations. Time lags and relative peak intensities may be able to differentiate between TNE and impulsive heating solutions. Adding a high temperature channel (like XRT Be-­thin) may improve diagnostics.

corona simulation heating↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Transition Region Response to a Coronal Nanoflare: Forward Modeling and Observations in SDO/AIA

The corona and transition region (TR) are fundamentally coupled through the processes of thermal conduction and mass exchange. It is not possible to understand one without the other. Yet the temperature-dependent emissions from the two locations behave quite differently in the aftermath of an impulsive heating event such as a coronal nanoflare. Whereas the corona cools sequentially, emitting first at higher temperatures and then at lower temperatures, the TR is multithermal and the emission at all temperatures responds in unison. We have previously applied the automated time lag technique of Viall & Klimchuk to disk observations of an active region (AR) made by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Lines of sight passing through coronal plasma show clear evidence for post-nanoflare cooling, while lines of sight intersecting the TR footpoints of coronal strands show zero time lag. In this paper, we use the EBTEL hydrodynamics code to demonstrate that this is precisely the expected behavior when the corona is heated by nanoflares. We also apply the time lag technique for the first time to off-limb observations of an AR. Since TR emission is not present above the limb, the occurrence of zero time lags is greatly diminished, supporting the conclusion that zero time lags measured on the disk are due to TR plasma. Lastly, we show that the "coronal" channels in AIA can be dominated by bright TR emission. When defined in a physically meaningful way, the TR reaches a temperature of roughly 60% the peak temperature in a flux tube. The TR resulting from impulsive heating can extend to 3 MK and higher, well within the range of the "coronal" AIA channels.

Sun: corona↗
NASA NTRS2016

Space Telescope and Optical Reverberation Mapping Project. III. Optical Continuum Emission and Broadband Time Delays in NGC 5548

We present ground-based optical photometric monitoring data for NGC 5548, part of an extended multiwavelength reverberation mapping campaign. The light curves have nearly daily cadence from 2014 January to July in ninefilters (BVRI and ugriz). Combined with ultraviolet data from the Hubble Space Telescope and Swift, we confirm significant time delays between the continuum bands as a function of wavelength, extending the wavelength coverage from 1158 Angstrom to the z band (approximately 9160 angstrom). We find that the lags at wavelengths longer than the V band are equal to or greater than the lags of high-ionization-state emission lines (such as He pi lambdal1640 and lambda 4686), suggesting that the continuum-emitting source is of a physical size comparable to the inner broad-line region (BLR). The trend of lag with wavelength is broadly consistent with the prediction for continuum reprocessing by an accretion disk with (tau varies as lambda(exp 4/3)). However, the lags also imply a disk radius that is 3 times larger than the prediction from standardthin-disk theory, assuming that the bolometric luminosity is 10 percent of the Eddington luminosity (L 0.1L(sub Edd)).Using optical spectra from the Large Binocular Telescope, we estimate the bias of the interband continuum lagsdue to BLR emission observed in the filters. We find that the bias for filters with high levels of BLR contamination(20 percent) can be important for the shortest continuum lags and likely has a significant impact on the u and U bandsowing to Balmer continuum emission.

galaxies: active – galaxies: individual (NGC 554↗
NASA NTRS2017

Optical/UV-to-X-Ray Echoes from the Tidal Disruption Flare ASASSN-14li

We carried out the first multi-wavelength (optical/UV and X-ray) photometric reverberation mapping of a tidal disruption flare (TDF) ASASSN-14li. We find that its X-ray variations are correlated with and lag the optical/UV fluctuations by 32 +/- 4 days. Based on the direction and the magnitude of the X-ray time lag, we rule out X-ray reprocessing and direct emission from a standard circular thin disk as the dominant source of its optical/UV emission. The lag magnitude also rules out an AGN disk-driven instability as the origin of ASASSN-14li and thus strongly supports the tidal disruption picture for this event and similar objects. We suggest that the majority of the optical/UV emission likely originates from debris stream self-interactions. Perturbations at the self-interaction sites produce optical/UV variability and travel down to the black hole where they modulate the X-rays. The time lag between the optical/UV and the X-rays variations thus correspond to the time taken by these fluctuations to travel from the self-interaction site to close to the black hole. We further discuss these time lags within the context of the three variants of the self-interaction model. High-cadence monitoring observations of future TDFs will be sensitive enough to detect these echoes and would allow us to establish the origin of optical/UV emission in TDFs in general.

Pasham, Dheeraj R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The First Swift Intensive AGN Accretion Disk Reverberation Mapping Survey

Swift intensive accretion disk reverberation mapping of four AGN yielded light curves sampled ∼200–350 times in 0.3–10 keV X-ray and six UV/optical bands. Uniform reduction and cross-correlation analysis of these data sets yields three main results: (1) The X-ray/UV correlations are much weaker than those within the UV/optical, posing severe problems for the lamp-post reprocessing model in which variations in a central X-ray corona drive and power those in the surrounding accretion disk. (2) The UV/optical interband lags are generally consistent with t μ l4 3 as predicted by the centrally illuminated thin accretion disk model. While the average interband lags are somewhat larger than predicted, these results alone are not inconsistent with the thin disk model given the large systematic uncertainties involved. (3) The one exception is the U band lags, which are on average a factor of ∼2.2 larger than predicted from the surrounding band data and fits. This excess appears to be due to diffuse continuum emission from the broad-line region (BLR). The precise mixing of disk and BLR components cannot be determined from these data alone. The lags in different AGN appear to scale with mass or luminosity. We also find that there are systematic differences between the uncertainties derived by JAVELIN versus more standard lag measurement techniques, with JAVELIN reporting smaller uncertainties by a factor of 2.5 on average. In order to be conservative only standard techniques were used in the analyses reported herein.

R. Edelson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effect of Rotor Blade Elasticity on UAM Quadrotor Acoustics

The 6-passenger quadrotor concept vehicle designed under the NASA Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology (RVLT) Project is considered for acoustic analysis. The tip speed is 550 ft/sec, with three blades per rotor (550/3). Originally, the blades were rigid, uniform spanwise, and with flap and pitch degrees of freedom. The blade model has since been updated: a lag hinge was added, and nonuniformities and elastic properties were introduced. Four blade models are considered: 1) original model, rigid uniform flap-pitch; 2) rigid uniform flap-lag-pitch; 3) rigid nonuniform flap-lag-pitch; and 4) elastic nonuniform flap-lag-torsion. Predictions are made for three flight conditions (approach, flyover, and takeoff) using the four blade models. The RVLT Toolchain is exercised using CAMRAD II and pyaaron/AARON/ANOPP2. Quadrotor trim and performance, 0.75R vertical blade loading for all four rotors, and noise sources are analyzed. Also, the contributions of the front and rear rotor pairs to noise are studied. In approach and flyover, a 2 dBA loading noise difference (delta) is predicted between blade models 1 and 4 (delta for takeoff is smaller, 1 dBA). Most of this noise delta is due to the lag hinge and nonuniformities, which is consistent with the results of a 2022 study that had considered only the approach condition; the current results extend this conclusion to flyover and takeoff also. The insensitivity of quadrotor noise to blade elasticity is currently attributed to the high blade torsional stiffness (frequency 6.41 per rev) and the small blade radius (9 ft) of the 550/3 design. Suggestions for potential follow-on work are given.

Rotor Blade↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uneven Inflation Load Share Trends in Clusters

The use of parachute clusters for payload recovery is still seeing widespread use ever since the early days of WWII. By involving the (near) simultaneous deployment of several smaller and identical canopies connected to the payload, cluster systems offer flexibility in tailoring to needed descent rates and load management, as well as providing robustness against individual canopy deployment or opening failure. Their downside, of course, resides in the possibility of differing inflation rates by each cluster member as caused by deployment variability, canopy-to-canopy interference, etc. Such variability leads to the lead-lag phenomenon, which causes uneven loading among the parachutes, often times leaving a single canopy to take up a significant portion of the system’s inflation loads. Herein we investigate how serious such an effect can be in terms of the number N of cluster members, underinflation drag of the lagging canopies, inflation swiftness of the leader in comparison to the laggards’, disreefing cutter activation staggering and pre-disreefing drag area. Two new metrics are used to highlight load share unevenness, namely, the peak and average leader canopy riser load in comparison to the leader’s drag during no-lead-lag; and leader peak load, as compared to total peak load. Results are calculated from data collected in NASA’s Orion/CPAS test program, as well as from simple algebraic expressions informing leader drag as sustained in different cluster systems (i.e., of different N) and varying leader inflation time relative to the laggards. Generally, using large-N cluster systems confers better load sharing among canopies. However, and in deployments where significant lead-lag occur, large-N systems may feature greater leader overload excursions, oftentimes in excess of 50% the no-lead-lag levels. These excursions are particularly made worse when cutter activation among the members are far from simultaneous and the laggards’ pre-disreefing drag area is small in comparison to the leader’s.

parachutes↗
DOE OSTI2019

Cesium Ion Exchange Testing Using Crystalline Silicotitanate with Hanford Tank Waste 241-AP-107 - 19104

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory has been tasked with demonstrating the unit operations for the Low-Activity Waste Pretreatment System (LAWPS) with Hanford tank waste. Washington River Protection Solutions requested that Hanford tank waste collected from tank 241-AP-107 be processed using conceived pretreatment steps (suspended solids removal by filtration, Cs removal by ion exchange), then vitrified. Bench-scale ion exchange testing with approximately 9 L of filtered AP-107 supernate was conducted using crystalline silicotitanate (CST) ion exchange media. Batch contact testing was performed to evaluate CST performance on tank waste prior to processing it in the LAWPS. Subsequently, column testing was performed using prototypic LAWPS operations in a lead-lag column arrangement using 10-mL CST beds. Loading continued until the lag column reached the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant waste acceptance criteria (WAC) for receiving supernatant waste for vitrification (a function of the Na and {sup 137}Cs concentrations). The Cs effluent from the lag column reached the WAC after processing half the feed volume. To keep the subsequent product effluent below the WAC, a new lag column was needed to continue processing and the original lag column was moved to the lead position. Greater than 99% of the Cs processed through the ion exchange system was collected on the CST in the columns. The AP-107 feed and column processing effluent underwent extensive characterization to better define waste characteristics and assess fractionation to the CST. Selected batch contact and lead column samples were analyzed to assess selected metal analyte load characteristics. Results of these analyses will be discussed. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying dominant environmental predictors of freshwater wetland methane fluxes across diurnal to seasonal time scales

While wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH 4 ) to the atmosphere, they represent a large source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget due to the complex biogeochemical controls on CH 4 dynamics. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first multi-site synthesis of how predictors of CH 4 fluxes (FCH4) in freshwater wetlands vary across wetland types at diel, multiday (synoptic), and seasonal time scales. In this work we used several statistical approaches (correlation analysis, generalized additive modeling, mutual information, and random forests) in a wavelet-based multi-resolution framework to assess the importance of environmental predictors, nonlinearities and lags on FCH4 across 23 eddy covariance sites. Seasonally, soil and air temperature were dominant predictors of FCH4 at sites with smaller seasonal variation in water table depth (WTD). In contrast, WTD was the dominant predictor for wetlands with smaller variations in temperature (e.g., seasonal tropical/subtropical wetlands). Changes in seasonal FCH4 lagged fluctuations in WTD by ~17 ± 11 days, and lagged air and soil temperature by median values of 8 ± 16 and 5 ± 15 days, respectively. Temperature and WTD were also dominant predictors at the multiday scale. Atmospheric pressure (PA) was another important multiday scale predictor for peat-dominated sites, with drops in PA coinciding with synchronous releases of CH 4 . At the diel scale, synchronous relationships with latent heat flux and vapor pressure deficit suggest that physical processes controlling evaporation and boundary layer mixing exert similar controls on CH 4 volatilization, and suggest the influence of pressurized ventilation in aerenchymatous vegetation. In addition, 1- to 4-h lagged relationships with ecosystem photosynthesis indicate recent carbon substrates, such as root exudates, may also control FCH4. By addressing issues of scale, asynchrony, and nonlinearity, this work improves understanding of the predictors and timing of wetland FCH4 that can inform future studies and models, and help constrain wetland CH 4 emissions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Independent and interactive effects of wet bulb globe temperature and air pollution exposures on suicide mortality

Background: Individual components of the ambient environment, such as temperature and air pollution, exist as part of a complex mixture and have been associated with suicide; however, their interactive effects remain poorly understood. This study examined the independent and interactive effects of wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) on suicide mortality. Methods: We identified 7,551 suicide cases in Utah, USA, from 2000 to 2016 and assigned exposure to daily maximum WBGT (sourced from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and PM 2.5 and NO 2 concentrations (sourced from a national spatiotemporal ensemble model) using decedent’s residential address at the time of death. A case-crossover design with conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the independent and interactive effects of WBGT max , PM 2.5 , and NO 2 on suicide. For exposure windows, we considered single days preceding suicide (lag 0 to 6) and their averages across preceding days (lag 0–1, 0–3, and 0–6). Analyses were stratified by season. Results: We identified a significant association between WBGT max and suicide across all seasons (odds ratio [OR] = 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01, 1.10; per 5 °C increase on lag 0–3 days). The associations were stronger in the warm season (March 22 to September 21), with ORs and 95% CIs ranging from 1.08 (1.02, 1.15) to 1.20 (1.10, 1.30) per 5 °C increase depending on the lag periods. We observed synergistic interactions between WBGT max and PM 2.5 and NO 2 in the warm season, associated with higher odds of suicide. The associations of WBGT max with suicide were most pronounced at high NO 2 levels. Conclusions: We found evidence of synergistic interactions between WBGT max and PM 2.5 and NO 2 on suicide in the warm season, emphasizing the need for considering the combined effects of heat stress and air pollution in suicide prevention strategies.

Fine particulate matter↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pantropical Indo-Atlantic temperature gradient modulates multi-decadal AMOC variability in models and observations

Abstract Interconnections between ocean basins are recognized as an important driver of climate variability. Recent modeling evidence suggests that the North Atlantic climate can respond to persistent warming of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the rest of the tropics (rTIO). Here, we use observational data to demonstrate that multi-decadal changes in pantropical ocean temperature gradients lead to variations of an SST-based proxy of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The largest contribution to this temperature gradient-AMOCconnection comes from gradients between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. TherTIOindex yields the strongest connection of this tropical temperature gradient to theAMOC. Focusing on the internally generated signal in three observational products reveals that an SST-basedAMOCproxy index has closely followed low-frequency changes ofrTIOtemperature with about 26-year lag since 1870. Analyzing the pre-industrial control simulations of 44 CMIP6 climate models shows that theAMOCproxy index lags simulated mid-latitudeAMOCvariations by 4 ± 4 years. These model simulations reveal the mechanism connectingAMOCvariations to pantropical ocean temperature gradients at a 27 ± 2 years lag, matching the observed time lag in 28 out of the 44 analyzed models. rTIO temperature changes affect the North Atlantic climate through atmospheric planetary waves, impacting temperature and salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic, which modifies deep convection and ultimately the AMOC. Through this mechanism, observed internalrTIOvariations can serve as a multi-decadal precursor ofAMOCchanges with important implications forAMOCdynamics and predictability.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗