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Results for “inverse prediction methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2004

Validation of SCIAMACHY and TOMS UV Radiances Using Ground and Space Observations

Hilsenrath, E.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Parameter estimation for X-ray scattering analysis with Hamiltonian Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Bayesian-inference-based approaches, in particular the random-walk Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, have received much attention recently for X-ray scattering analysis. Hamiltonian MCMC, a state-of-the-art development in the field of MCMC, has become popular in recent years. It utilizes Hamiltonian dynamics for indirect but much more efficient drawings of the model parameters. We described the principle of the Hamiltonian MCMC for inversion problems in X-ray scattering analysis by estimating high-dimensional models for several motivating scenarios in small-angle X-ray scattering, reflectivity, and X-ray fluorescence holography. Hamiltonian MCMC with appropriate preconditioning can deliver superior performance over the random-walk MCMC, and thus can be used as an efficient tool for the statistical analysis of the parameter distributions, as well as model predictions and confidence analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1981

Quantification of airport community noise impact in terms of noise levels, population density, and human subjective response

The Fraction Impact Method (FIM), developed by the National Research Council (NRC) for assessing the amount and physiological effect of noise, is described. Here, the number of people exposed to a given level of noise is multiplied by a weighting factor that depends on noise level. It is pointed out that the Aircraft-noise Levels and Annoyance MOdel (ALAMO), recently developed at NASA Langley Research Center, can perform the NRC fractional impact calculations for given modes of operation at any U.S. airport. The sensitivity of these calculations to errors in estimates of population, noise level, and human subjective response is discussed. It is found that a change in source noise causes a substantially smaller change in contour area than would be predicted simply on the basis of inverse square law considerations. Another finding is that the impact calculations are generally less sensitive to source noise errors than to systematic errors in population or subjective response.

Deloach, R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimation of constituent properties of concrete materials with an artificial neural network based method

Multi-scale models are developed for heterogeneous concrete materials to estimate their macroscopic mechanical properties in terms of micro-structural data. One crucial challenge of those models is the identification of local properties of constituent phases. In this paper, we present an efficient method based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Typical concrete materials are taken as example. A macroscopic analytical strength criterion is established from three steps of nonlinear homogenization procedure. The macroscopic strength of materials is determined as a function of the frictional coefficient and cohesion of solid cement particles at nanometer scale, intra-particle pores, inter-particle pores and aggregates (inclusions). The objective is to identify the nanoscopic frictional coefficient and cohesion of cement particle from measured macroscopic values of uniaxial compression and tensile strengths. For this purpose, a numerical method based on the ANN is developed. With the analytical macroscopic strength criterion, sensitivity studies are first realized to identify the most important micro-structural parameters influencing the macroscopic strength of concrete. A simplified analytical macroscopic strength criterion is then proposed. A large dataset is further constructed through the inversion of the analytical strength criterion by using the aggregates volume fraction, porosity, macroscopic uniaxial tensile and compressive strengths as input variables and the frictional coefficient and cohesion of cement particles as output unknowns. An ANN model containing four hidden layers and 100 neurons in each layer is constructed and trained by using this dataset. Various types of validation of the ANN model are performed. It is found that the proposed ANN based model can effectively predict the frictional coefficient and cohesion of porous cement paste at the microscopic scale with a very good accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Updates to the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model: 2. Path-dependent Travel-time Uncertainty

Abstract The regional seismic travel time (RSTT) model and software were developed to improve travel-time prediction accuracy by accounting for three-dimensional crust and upper mantle structure. Travel-time uncertainty estimates are used in the process of associating seismic phases to events and to accurately calculate location uncertainty bounds (i.e. event location error ellipses). We improve on the current distance-dependent uncertainty parameterization for RSTT using a random effects model to estimate slowness (inverse velocity) uncertainty as a mean squared error for each model parameter. The random effects model separates the error between observed slowness and model predicted slowness into bias and random components. The path-specific travel-time uncertainty is calculated by integrating these mean squared errors along a seismic-phase ray path. We demonstrate that event location error ellipses computed for a 90% coverage ellipse metric (used by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization International Data Centre (IDC)), and using the path-specific travel-time uncertainty approach, are more representative (median 82.5% ellipse percentage) of true location error than error ellipses computed using distance-dependent travel-time uncertainties (median 70.1%). We also demonstrate measurable improvement in location uncertainties using the RSTT method compared to the current station correction approach used at the IDC (median 74.3% coverage ellipse).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

High-Resolution Near-Surface Imaging at the Basin Scale Using Dark Fiber and Distributed Acoustic Sensing: Toward Site Effect Estimation in Urban Environments

Near-surface seismic structure, particularly the shear wave velocity (V s ), can strongly affect local site response, and should be accurately estimated for ground motion prediction during seismic hazard assessment. The Imperial Valley (California), occupying the southern end of the Salton Trough, is a seismically active basin with thick surficial lacustrine sedimentary deposits. In this study, we utilize ambient noise records and local earthquake events for high-resolution near-surface characterization and site effect estimation with an unlit fiber-optic telecommunication infrastructure (dark fiber) in Imperial Valley by using the distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) technique. We apply ambient noise interferometry to retrieve coherent surface waves from DAS records, and evaluate performances of three different surface wave methods on DAS ambient noise dispersion imaging. We develop a quality control workflow to improve the dispersion measurement of noisy portions of the DAS data set by using a data selection strategy. Using the joint inversion of both the fundamental mode and higher overtones of Rayleigh waves, a high resolution two-dimensional (2D) V s structure down to 70 m depth is obtained. We successfully achieve an improved V s 30 (the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m) model with higher spatial-resolution and reliability compared to the existing community model for the area. We also explore the potential for utilizing DAS earthquake events for site amplification estimation. The preliminary results reveal a clear anti-correlation between the approximated site response and the V s 30 profile. In conclusion, our results indicate the potential utility of DAS deployed on dark fiber for near-surface characterization in appropriate contexts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interpretable Deep Learning for Advancing Field-Enhanced Catalysis

This DOE Early Career project developed a physics-informed, interpretable AI-and-modeling framework to understand and exploit electric-field effects in heterogeneous catalysis, with ammonia cracking and synthesis as a representative pathway. The team built and validated methods to map local electric fields on metal surfaces and nanoparticles, showing that low-coordination features (tips/edges/corners) can concentrate fields by several-fold relative to flat facets. Using DFT-generated datasets, the project created physics-guided machine learning models that rapidly predict local electric fields and field-dependent adsorption energetics with near-DFT accuracy while reducing computational cost by orders of magnitude. These predictions were integrated with microkinetic modeling to quantify how field-dipole interactions reshape reaction energetics and mechanisms, enabling large increases in predicted catalytic rates and substantial reductions in operating temperature under favorable field conditions. To accelerate discovery of earth-abundant catalysts, the project combined interpretable ML screening (with electronic-structure descriptors identified as key drivers) with a generative inverse-design workflow based on diffusion models and physics constraints. The resulting closed-loop approach, linking simulation, mechanistic modeling, and AI, provides reusable tools and datasets for designing catalysts and operating conditions in field-enhanced catalysis, with broad relevance to electrostatic catalysis, plasma catalysis, electrocatalysis, and other energy-related chemical transformations.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ensemble Kalman filter for data assimilation coupled with low-resolution computations techniques applied in fluid dynamics

This paper presents an innovative Reduced-order model (ROM) for merging experimental and simulation data using data assimilation (DA) to estimate the "True" state of a fluid dynamics system, leading to more accurate predictions. Our methodology introduces a novel approach by implementing the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) within a reduced-dimensional framework, grounded in a robust theoretical foundation and applied to fluid dynamics. To address the substantial computational demands of DA, the proposed ROM employs low-resolution (LR) techniques to drastically reduce computational costs. This innovative approach involves downsampling datasets for DA computations, followed by an advanced reconstruction technique based on low-cost singular value decomposition (lcSVD). The lcSVD method, a key innovation in this paper, has never been applied to DA before and offers a highly efficient way to enhance resolution with minimal computational resources. Our results demonstrate significant reductions in both computation time and RAM usage through these LR techniques without compromising the accuracy of the estimations. For instance, in a turbulent test case, for a data compression rate of 15.9, the LR approach can achieve a speed-up of 13.7 and a RAM compression of 90.9% while maintaining a low relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of 2.6%, compared to 0.8% in the high-resolution (HR) reference. Furthermore, we highlight the effectiveness of the EnKF in estimating and predicting the state of fluid flow systems based on limited observations and given low-fidelity numerical data. This paper highlights the potential of the proposed DA method in fluid dynamics applications, particularly for improving computational efficiency in CFD and related fields. Its ability to balance accuracy with low computational and memory costs makes it especially suitable for large-scale and real-time applications, such as environmental monitoring or engineering design. This method will be incorporated into ModelFLOWs-app.

Data Assimilation↗

DOE OSTI2024

A new method for solving the linearized 1D Vlasov–Poisson system yielding a new class of solutions

We describe a new method for solving the linearized 1D Vlasov–Poisson system by using properties of Cauchy-type integrals. Our method remedies critical flaws of the two standard methods, reveals a previously unrecognized Gaussian-in-time-like decay, and can also account for an externally applied electric field. The Landau approximation involves deforming the Bromwich contour around the poles closest to the real axis due to the analytically continued dielectric function, finding the long-time behavior for a stable system: Landau damping. Jackson's generalization encircles all poles while sending the contour to infinity, assuming its contribution vanishes, which is not true in general. This gives incorrect solutions for physically reasonable configurations and can exhibit pathological behavior, of which we show examples. The van Kampen method expresses the solution for a stable equilibrium as a continuous superposition of waves, resulting in an opaque integral. Case's generalization includes unstable systems and predicts a decaying discrete mode for each growing discrete mode, an apparent contradiction to both the Jackson solution and ours. We show, without imposing additional constraints, that the decaying modes are never present in the time evolution due to an exact cancellation with part of the continuum. Our solution is free of integral expressions, is obtained using algebra and Laurent series expansions, does not rely on analytic continuations, and results in a correct asymptotically convergent form in the case of infinite sums. The analysis used can be readily applied in higher-dimensional, electromagnetic systems and also provides a new technique for evaluating certain inverse Laplace transforms.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Design, Analysis, and Experimental Testing of Hydrogen Lean Direct Injection Nozzles at Elevated Pressure

Abstract There are many challenges of commissioning a hydrogen combustor into future gas turbine engines; especially regarding achieving emissions goals. Previously, Escudero et al. and Tran et al. conducted a study to adapt the liquid fuel Lean Direct Injection (LDI) concept from Jet-A to gaseous natural gas-hydrogen blends and pure hydrogen [1], [2]. Experimental data was collected at atmospheric conditions using a Box Behnken design of experiments. The design of experiments suggested that biasing the air split in favor of the inner air circuit and increasing the swirl strength of this inner air passage resulted in improved NOx emissions, while the inverse was true for stability, which was quantified by studying the lean blowoff point (LBO) [1], [2]. The trends revealed by the original experiment [1], [2] provided a design direction for further iterations of the experimental hardware. The study presented herein describes the further investigation of such LDI injectors through experimental methods and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations at atmospheric conditions, which were used to identify potential flow behaviors driving enhanced emissions performance. Further evaluation of select injectors from both studies was then conducted at elevated pressures up to 6 atmospheres. The results from both experiments are presented in this study, which include flame observations, emissions measurements, and operational challenges. NOx emissions results are reported on a volume basis in ppmvd corrected to 15% O2 and corrected for fuel. A predictive model for relating NOx emissions to test conditions at atmospheric conditions show high significance to adiabatic flame temperature while little to no significance to fuel composition for the best performing configurations. The results illustrate the connection between atmospheric testing and testing elevated pressures. The design direction indicated by the initial tests and CFD results in promising configurations for implementation into a Multi-point LDI array.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2015

Snowfall Rate Retrieval Using Passive Microwave Measurements and Its Applications in Weather Forecast and Hydrology

(AMSU), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) and Advance Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). ATMS is the follow‐on sensor to AMSU and MHS. Currently, an AMSU and MHS based land snowfall rate (SFR) product is running operationally at NOAA/NESDIS. Based on the AMSU/MHS SFR, an ATMS SFR algorithm has also been developed. The algorithm performs retrieval in three steps: snowfall detection, retrieval of cloud properties, and estimation of snow particle terminal velocity and snowfall rate. The snowfall detection component utilizes principal component analysis and a logistic regression model. It employs a combination of temperature and water vapor sounding channels to detect the scattering signal from falling snow and derives the probability of snowfall. Cloud properties are retrieved using an inversion method with an iteration algorithm and a two‐stream radiative transfer model. A method adopted to calculate snow particle terminal velocity. Finally, snowfall rate is computed by numerically solving a complex integral. The SFR products are being used mainly in two communities: hydrology and weather forecast. Global blended precipitation products traditionally do not include snowfall derived from satellites because such products were not available operationally in the past. The ATMS and AMSU/MHS SFR now provide the winter precipitation information for these blended precipitation products. Weather forecasters mainly rely on radar and station observations for snowfall forecast. The SFR products can fill in gaps where no conventional snowfall data are available to forecasters. The products can also be used to confirm radar and gauge snowfall data and increase forecasters' confidence in their prediction.

Meng, Huan↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic-learning-based stochastic surrogate model from small incomplete datasets for nonlinear dynamical systems

We consider a high-dimensional nonlinear computational model of a dynamical system, parameterized by a vector-valued control parameter, in the presence of uncertainties represented by an uncontrolled parameter modeled by a vector-valued random variable, and possibly with stochastic excitation. The objective is to construct a statistical surrogate model where the input is any deterministic value of the control parameter, and the output is a vector-valued observation of the computational model, which is a random vector whose probability measure is updated using a target dataset. To construct this statistical surrogate model, the stochastic response of the computational model must be built, which is a vector-valued time-discretized stochastic process in high dimension, depending on the control parameter. It is assumed that the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is high. For the probabilistic updating, we consider a subset of the components of the observation of the computational model, defined as the “identification observation” of the computational model, for which a small target dataset is available. Therefore, the target dataset is associated with partial observability, corresponding to an incomplete data case. Given a prior probability model of the random control and uncontrolled parameters, a training dataset is constructed, consisting of realizations of the random triplet composed of the stochastic response, the random identification observation, and the random control parameter. Since the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is assumed to be large, the training dataset is also of small size. The main challenges in this problem are the high dimensionality, partial observability leading to incomplete data in the target dataset for the identification observation of the computational model (which is not sufficient to identify the computational stochastic responses), and the availability of a small training dataset. To address these challenges, we propose a methodology based on statistical methods for constructing necessary reduced representations, direct probabilistic learning under constraints using probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) constrained by the target dataset, and the use of a weak formulation of the Fourier transform of probability measures. Statistical conditioning is also employed to explore the learned dataset. The constructed predictive statistical surrogate model can be implemented in the context of online computation. Here, we apply this approach to a problem of nonlinear stochastic dynamics in high dimensions within the framework of deformable solids mechanics.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2021

Structure Prediction from Neutron Scattering Profiles: A Data Sciences Approach

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Computer Science↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cosmic Inference: Constraining Parameters with Observations and a Highly Limited Number of Simulations

We look at cosmological probes that pose an inverse problem where the measurement result is obtained through observations, and the objective is to infer values of model parameters that characterize the underlying physical system-our universe, from these observations and theoretical forward-modeling. The only way to accurately forward-model physical behavior on small scales is via expensive numerical simulations, which are further “emulated” due to their high cost. Emulators are commonly built with a set of simulations covering the parameter space with Latin hypercube sampling and an interpolation procedure; the aim is to establish an approximately constant prediction error across the hypercube. In this paper, we provide a description of a novel statistical framework for obtaining accurate parameter constraints. The proposed framework uses multi-output Gaussian process emulators that are adaptively constructed using Bayesian optimization methods with the goal of maintaining a low emulation error in the region of the hypercube preferred by the observational data. In this paper, we compare several approaches for constructing multi-output emulators that enable us to take possible inter-output correlations into account while maintaining the efficiency needed for inference. Using a Lyα forest flux power spectrum, we demonstrate that our adaptive approach requires considerably fewer-by a factor of a few in the Lyα P(k) case considered here-simulations compared to the emulation based on Latin hypercube sampling, and that the method is more robust in reconstructing parameters and their Bayesian credible intervals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Autonomous phase mapping of gold nanoparticles synthesis with differentiable models of spectral shape

Autonomous experimentation–or self-driving labs–offers a systematic approach to accelerate materials discovery by integrating automated synthesis, characterization, and data-driven decision-making. We present a closed-loop workflow for the on-demand synthesis and structural characterization of colloidal gold nanoparticles, enabling direct mapping from composition to nanoscale structure. Our framework leverages differentiable models of spectral shape to address two central tasks in self-driving labs: (a) phase mapping, or identifying compositional regions with distinct structural behavior; and (b) material retrosynthesis, or optimizing compositions for target structure. Using functional data analysis, we develop a data-driven model with generative pre-training, active learning, and high-throughput experiments to predict spectral responses across composition space. We demonstrate the approach on seed-mediated growth of gold nanoparticles, showcasing its ability to extract design rules, reveal secondary interactions, and efficiently navigate morphology space. Gradient-based optimization of the models enables inverse design, making this a unified platform.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2001

Cross Calibration of TOMS, SBUV/2 and Sciamachy Radiances from Ground Observations

Verification of a stratospheric ozone recovery remains a high priority for environmental research and policy definition. Models predict an ozone recovery at a much lower rate than the measured depletion rate observed to date. Therefore improved precision of the satellite and ground ozone observing systems are required over the long term to verify recovery. We have shown that validation of radiances is the most effective means for correcting absolute accuracy and long term drifts of backscatter type satellite measurements. This method by-passes the algorithms used for both satellite and ground based measurements which are normally used to validate and correct the satellite data. Validation of radiances will also improve all higher level data products derived from the satellite observations. Backscatter algorithms suffer from several errors such as unrepresentative a-priori data and air mass factor corrections. Radiance comparisons employ forward models but are inherently more accurate and than inverse (retrieval) algorithms. A new method for satellite validation is planned which will compliment measurements from the existing ground-based networks. This method will employ very accurate comparisons between ground based zenith sky radiances and satellite nadir radiances. These comparisons will rely heavily on the experience derived from the Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) program which provided a reference standard of radiance measurements for SBUV/2, TOMS, and GOME. This new measurement program, called "Skyrad", employs two well established capabilities at the Goddard Space Flight Center, 1) the SSBUV calibration facilities and 2) the radiative transfer codes used for the TOMS and SBUV/2 algorithms and their subsequent refinements. Radiative transfer calculations show that ground based zenith sky and satellite nadir backscatter ultraviolet comparisons can be made very accurately under certain viewing conditions. The Skyrad instruments (SSBUV, Brewer spectrophotometers, and possibly others) will be calibrated and maintained to a precision of a few tenths of a percent. Skyrad data will then enable long term calibration of upcoming satellite instruments such as QuickTOMS. SBUV/2s and SCIAMACHY with a high degree of precision. This technique can be further employed to monitor the performance of future instruments such as GOME-2, OMI, and OMPS. Initial ground observations taken from Goddard Space Flight Center compared with radiative transfer calculations has indicated the feasibility of this method.

Hillsenrath, Ernest↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nondestructive Evaluation of Concrete: Elastic Property Imaging Through Full Waveform Inversion

Concrete is a major construction material worldwide and plays a crucial role in the nuclear industry. The elastic properties of concrete are prone to change and degrade while in service, as it is often subjected to extreme operational and environmental conditions. An accurate evaluation of concrete's elastic properties is thus essential to ensure structural integrity and safety. This is especially true for concrete in nuclear power plants, where irradiation effects significantly impact concrete mechanical properties. There are various methods to assess these properties, with ultrasound-based techniques showing high potential due to their nondestructive nature, cost-effectiveness, and safety. While several nondestructive evaluation methods exist, most rely on idealizations such as assuming homogeneous material and plane wavefronts. In this work, we address these issues by introducing an ultrasound-based nondestructive method aimed at reconstructing spatially varying images of concrete mechanical properties. By accurately modeling wave physics, including scattering and reflection, we overcome several of the aforementioned idealizations and aim to utilize the full waveform for imaging material properties through depth, resulting in more reliable images. Full waveform inversion (FWI) was first introduced by geophysicists to reconstruct subsurface elastic property images. The goal is to minimize the difference between simulated and recorded wavefield signals, often through gradient-based optimization algorithms. While FWI is primarily conducted using the acoustic approximation of the wave equation, few works focus on elastic FWI, where the goal is to reconstruct images of not only the pressure wave speed but also the shear wave speed and density (or their equivalents). This work explores the potential of using elastic FWI to predict concrete mechanical properties as an initial effort for a more accurate monitoring of concrete conditions in service. Reconstructing images of different elastic parameters enables more specificity and accurate condition diagnosis. This paper will detail this approach and provide examples demonstrating the effectiveness of elastic FWI in reconstructing comprehensive maps of concrete mechanical properties.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A hybrid data-driven and model-based approach for computationally efficient stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch under wind and solar uncertainty

Stochastic unit commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) are imperative in dealing with uncertainty in renewable forecast for power system operation and planning such that the overall expected production cost is minimized over the planning horizon. However, accurate calculation of the expected production cost requires assessment of a very large number of different scenarios of uncertain renewable resources, such as solar and wind, which is practically infeasible to simulate in real time. This article proposes a hybrid datadriven and physics-based model-predictive paradigm to efficiently solve for stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch considering uncertainty in wind and solar power forecasts. Here, the novelty of the approach lies in decoupling the production cost estimation from the unit commitment and economic dispatch optimization problems under uncertainty without compromising on the fidelity of the solutions. A data-driven machine learning model is first developed to predict the mean optimal production cost. A physics-based inverse problem is then solved to get the stochastic UC and ED profiles from the expected cost. The presented approach considers, for the first time, solar uncertainty in UC/ED determination and enables efficient and accurate propagation of wind and solar uncertainty to estimate the statistics of the production cost. The effectiveness of the developed approach is demonstrated systematically on a stylized RTS-GMLC single-node system. The overall framework predicts the expected cost 62.5% more accurately than the existing state-of-the-art, on unforeseen days during the entire year, and yields, for the first time, the associated physically consistent UC and ED profiles. The solutions are also shown to be flexible in providing adequate daily reserves to address any statistical deviations from probabilistic power forecasts. The computational time associated with the presented method is only about 10 s compared to over 24 h needed for a conventional stochastic UC/ED determination under uncertainty on an Intel Core i9 processor with 32 GB of RAM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗