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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17

Catalytic Resonance Theory: Forecasting the Flow of Programmable Catalytic Loops

Chemical transformations on catalyst surfaces occur through series and parallel reaction pathways. These complex networks and their behavior can be most simply evaluated through a three-species surface reaction loop (A* to B* to C* to A*) that is internal to the overall chemical reaction. Application of an oscillating dynamic catalyst to this reactive loop has been shown to exhibit one of three types of behavior: (1) a positive net flux of molecules about the loop in the clockwise direction, (2) a negative net flux of molecules about the loop in the counterclockwise direction, or (3) negligible flux of molecules about the loop at the limit cycle of reaction. Three-species surface loops were simulated with microkinetic modeling to assess the reaction loop behavior resulting from a catalytic surface oscillating between two or more catalyst surface energy states. Selected input parameters for the simulations spanned an 11-dimensional parameter space using 127 688 different parameter combinations. Their converged limit cycle solutions were analyzed for their loop turnover frequencies, the majority of which were found to be approximately zero. Classification and regression machine learning models were trained to predict the sign and magnitude of the loop turnover frequency and successfully performed above accessible baselines. Notably, the classification models exhibited a baseline weighted F1 score of 0.49, whereas trained models achieved weighted F1 scores of 0.94 and 0.96 when trained on the parameters used to define the simulations and derived rate constants, respectively. The trained models successfully predicted catalytic loop behavior, and interpretation of these models revealed all input parameters to be important for the prediction and performance of each model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evaluation of historical precipitation interannual variability in CMIP6 over the United States

Interannual precipitation variability profoundly influences society via its effects on agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and disaster risks. In this study, we use daily in situ precipitation observations from the global historical climatology network-daily (GHCN-D) to assess the ability of 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, including the 50-member fifth-generation Canadian Earth System Model single model initial-condition large ensemble (CanESM5_SMILE), to realistically simulate historical interannual precipitation variability trends within 17 regions of the contiguous United States (CONUS). We assess how accurately the CMIP6 simulations align with observational data across annual, summer, and winter periods, focusing on four key hydrometeorological metrics, including interannual precipitation variability, relative interannual precipitation variability (coefficient of variation), annual mean precipitation, and annual wet day frequency. Our findings reveal that CMIP6 ensemble members generally reproduce the spatial patterns of observed trends in annual mean precipitation. In most regions, models agree well with the signs of observed changes in annual mean precipitation, though discrepancies in trend magnitude are evident. Further, observed trends in winter mean precipitation broadly exhibit a spatial pattern similar to that of the observed annual mean. However, analysis of the CanESM5_SMILE shows that trends in precipitation variability may primarily be the result of model-simulated internal variability, suggesting caution in interpreting multi-model single-realization ensemble results. Challenges in accurately simulating interannual precipitation variability underscore the need for ongoing model refinement and validation to enhance climate projections, especially in regions vulnerable to extreme precipitation events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physical Interpretation of Early Battery Life Prediction Models

Early battery life prediction models are most useful for R&D if they help us understand the early changes in battery electrochemical response that correspond with long-term degradation and failure. Linear regression models such as Fused lasso and Partial Least Squares can fit coefficients directly to high-dimensional electrochemical data like capacity-voltage and ΔV–state-of-charge, i.e., Q(V) and ΔV(SOC) curves, learning coefficients that can be physically interpreted. We leverage the ISU-ILCC battery aging data set to learn high-dimensional coefficients for early battery life prediction from traditional slow-rate capacity check data, demonstrating learning on Q(V), d Q· d V −1 , and ΔV(SOC) curves. A thorough study on the dependence of coefficient values on train/test size and data preprocessing methods is made, demonstrating the reliability of high-dimensional regression approaches unless very small amounts of data are used for model training. For this data set, coefficients from Q(V) and d Q· d V −1 models highlight changes in electrode stoichiometry due to lithium loss, while ΔV(SOC) coefficients highlight changes in positive electrode diffusivity due to particle cracking as well as electrode stoichiometry shifts. By directly interpreting the coefficients of a regression model, we make physical insights into battery degradation mechanisms without requiring the assumptions of traditional battery data analysis methods.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Interpretable, extensible linear and symbolic regression models for charge density prediction using a hierarchy of many-body correlation descriptors

Here, density functional theory (DFT) is routinely used to make electronic structure predictions for high-throughput screening of materials and molecules for technologically relevant areas, like the identification of better catalysts, electronic materials, and drug discovery. However, the DFT formalism is limited by (a) its poor (quadratic-to-quartic) scaling, and (b) the need to perform repeated eigenvalue computations of the electronic Hamiltonian as part of its self-consistent field (SCF) iteration procedure to obtain the converged ground state electron density, ρ (r). Approaches that directly predict ρ (r) of a structure with high accuracy can accelerate conventional SCF calculations and can also be used in linearly scaling methods such as orbital-free DFT. To this end, we present a procedure to predict the ground state electron density of molecular and periodic three-dimensional systems directly from the atomic structure with a particular emphasis on physical interpretability. In our framework, ρ (r) is modeled using many-body correlation descriptors that accurately capture the effects of local atomic arrangements in the neighborhood of a grid point. Our use of a linear regression scheme to fit to charge density data enables transparent analysis of the relative contributions of various types of local atomic correlations. By systematically including increasingly complex correlations, our model is shown to accurately predict ρ (r) for a variety of chemically and electronically diverse systems — amorphous Ge, Al(001) slab, crystalline Ga 2 O 3 , molecular benzene, and polyethylene. We then demonstrate a symbolic regression-based protocol to construct easily computable, interpretable features from lower-order correlations that significantly improves our electron density predictions with effectively no increase in the computational cost.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Explainable machine learning for hydrogen diffusion in metals and random binary alloys

Hydrogen diffusion in metals and alloys plays an important role in the discovery of new materials for fuel cell and energy storage technology. While analytic models use hand-selected features that have clear physical ties to hydrogen diffusion, they often lack accuracy when making quantitative predictions. Machine learning models are capable of making accurate predictions, but their inner workings are obscured, rendering it unclear which physical features are truly important. To develop interpretable machine learning models to predict the activation energies of hydrogen diffusion in metals and random binary alloys, we create a database for physical and chemical properties of the species and use it to fit six machine learning models. Our models achieve root-mean-squared errors between 98–119 meV on the testing data and accurately predict that elemental Ru has a large activation energy, while elemental Cr and Fe have small activation energies. By analyzing the feature importances of these fitted models, we identify relevant physical properties for predicting hydrogen diffusivity. While metrics for measuring the individual feature importances for machine learning models exist, correlations between the features lead to disagreement between models and limit the conclusions that can be drawn. Instead grouped feature importance, formed by combining the features via their correlations, agree across the six models and reveal that the two groups containing the packing factor and electronic specific heat are particularly significant for predicting hydrogen diffusion in metals and random binary alloys. In conclusion, this framework allows us to interpret machine learning models and enables rapid screening of new materials with the desired rates of hydrogen diffusion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Linear Time-Invariant Models of a Large Cumulus Ensemble

Abstract Methods in system identification are used to obtain linear time-invariant state-space models that describe how horizontal averages of temperature and humidity of a large cumulus ensemble evolve with time under small forcing. The cumulus ensemble studied here is simulated with cloud-system-resolving models in radiative–convective equilibrium. The identified models extend steady-state linear response functions used in past studies and provide accurate descriptions of the transfer function, the noise model, and the behavior of cumulus convection when coupled with two-dimensional gravity waves. A novel procedure is developed to convert the state-space models into an interpretable form, which is used to elucidate and quantify memory in cumulus convection. The linear problem studied here serves as a useful reference point for more general efforts to obtain data-driven and interpretable parameterizations of cumulus convection.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

PayamDiba/CoNSEPT

Deciphering the sequence-function relationship encoded in enhancers holds the key to interpreting non-coding variants and understanding mechanisms of transcriptomic variation. Several quantitative models exist for predicting enhancer function and underlying mechanisms; however, there has been no systematic comparison of these models characterizing their relative strengths and shortcomings. Here, we interrogated a rich data set of neuroectodermal enhancers in Drosophila, representing cis- and trans- sources of expression variation, with a suite of biophysical and machine learning models. We performed rigorous comparisons of thermodynamics-based models implementing different mechanisms of activation, repression and cooperativity. Moreover, we developed a convolutional neural network (CNN) model, called CoNSEPT, that learns enhancer ‘grammar’ in an unbiased manner. CoNSEPT is the first general-purpose CNN tool for predicting enhancer function in varying conditions, such as different cell types and experimental conditions, and we show that such complex models can suggest interpretable mechanisms. We found model-based evidence for mechanisms previously established for the studied system, including cooperative activation and short-range repression. The data also favored one hypothesized activation mechanism over another and suggested an intriguing role for a direct, distance-independent repression mechanism. Our modeling shows that while fundamentally different models can yield similar fits to data, they vary in their utility for mechanistic inference.

Dibaeinia, Payam↗

Multidimensional simulations of Mckenna-driven flow tube configuration: Investigating non-ideality in NO x formation flow tube experiments

Multidimensional simulations have been conducted to simulate atmospheric pressure, flat-flame/McKenna-burner-driven-flow tube experiments targeted to obtain NO x speciation data for predicting/analyzing syngas combustion emissions. In a prior work, we demonstrated the impacts of multidimensional transport on post flame region prediction departures from those assuming unidimensional flow/transport conditions. In this work, we develop and utilize a multidimensional laminar reacting flow solver to simulate the fully coupled flame and post flame regions to further elucidate the impacts of the earlier unidimensional modeling assumptions on interpreting post flame NO x experimental data. The model is used to simulate a lean, premixed syngas/air flame and its associated post flame regions within a cylindrical flow-tube-like arrangement. The combustion process takes place under atmospheric condition with trace amount of NO x seeding fed into the inlet gas stream. The spatial evolution of NO x species (NO and NO 2 ) in the flame and in the post-combustion zone suggests two distinct regions: 1) a region encompassing the flame structure itself; and 2) a post flame region in which the temperature decays due to both axial and radial transport processes. The predictions show that for the conditions studied, a pulsatile flow field exists due to the formation of an expanding and contracting recirculation zone in the outer periphery of the flow tube. By resolving the nature of the flow, the resulting time-averaged temperature and species concentrations show improved agreement with existing experimental measurements. The flow-field interaction results in radial inhomogeneities in the NO 2 profiles with the maximum concentration offset from the flow centerline. The location of the peak in NO 2 is coupled with radial temperature gradients from wall cooling effects and their significant influence on NO/NO 2 interconversion kinetics, producing notable NO 2 accumulation in regions near the wall. Geometrical configurations capable of suppressing/minimizing the pulsatile nature are also investigated and the results are compared. Other experimental configurations could be considered in parametric simulations to determine the optimal configuration that would minimize non-idealities in the observations. The work shows the value in performing such computations in advance of settling on a particular design for flow tube/flow reactor experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Physics-Informed AI for Climate and Weather Risk Prediction (Final Report)

As part of the work Terrafuse developed 1) a model for wildfire risk in California, and 2) a model for downscaled wind fields from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) numerical models. The wildfire model is based on 20 years of historical data and captures the dependence of wildfire incidence and spread on climatic, weather and land-use variables by training a machine learning model. Nonlinear relationships between input features are learned and expressed by the model and model transparency allows features to be ranked and interpreted. The fire model is of use for accurately predicting real-time daily and long-term wildfire risk for use cases in energy and insurance. The downscaled wind model is a spatio-temporal deep learning model that emulates the influence of high-resolution variables on wind speed, allowing coarse-resolution operational NWP models to be accurately expressed on fine grids at high resolution, with application to wind energy and weather forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of an Integrated Multidiagnostic to Assess the High-Z Impurity Fluxes in the Metallic Environment of WEST Using IMAS

WEST is an actively cooled, long-pulse tokamak with nearly all plasma-facing components (PFC) made of tungsten. One of the aims of WEST is to study plasma operations with tungsten PFCs in preparation for long-pulse operations on high-Z divertor devices, such as ITER. For long-pulse operation, the high-Z impurity content and transport to the core plasma are critical concerns that require further measurement and interpretation to improve plasma performance and PFC durability. This work details the impurity influxes in WEST during a series of discharges in which the lower hybrid (LH) injected power was incrementally increased. An analysis has been performed of measurements collected from an array of edge diagnostics. Visible spectroscopy was utilized to measure the spectral radiances generated by fuel particles (D) and impurities (W, O, and C) at the divertor and at the antennas with a newly developed spectral peak-fitting tool used to analyze the data in WEST. The scrape-off layer (SOL) plasma conditions (n e and T e ) measured at the divertor target with flush Langmuir probes and near the outer mid-plane (OMP) using reciprocating Langmuir probes (RCPs) are used to evaluate the number of ionizations per photons (S/XB) coefficients required to estimate the impurity fluxes obtained with the collisional-radiative model ColRadPy. Here, the array of edge diagnostics discussed in this work, coupled with SOL plasma modeling tools, represents a multidiagnostic interpretative modeling workflow that will continue to be applied to upcoming experimental campaigns on the WEST experiment to assess high-Z impurity transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Multimodel ensemble predictions of precipitation using bayesian neural networks

Multimodel ensembling improves predictions and considers model uncertainties. In this study, we present a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) ensemble approach for large-scale precipitation predictions based on a set of climate models. BNN infers spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases through the calibration against observations. This ensemble scheme of BNN sufficiently leverages individual model skill for accurate predictions as well as provides interpretability about which models contribute more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times to inform model development. Additionally, BNN accurately quantifies epistemic uncertainty to avoid overconfident projections. We demonstrate BNN’s superior prediction performance to three state-of-the-art ensemble approaches and discuss its interpretability and uncertainty quantification.

Fan, Patrick↗

Multimodel Ensemble Predictions of Precipitation using Bayesian Neural Networks

Multimodel ensembling improves predictions and considers model uncertainties. In this study, we present a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) ensemble approach for large-scale precipitation predictions based on a set of climate models. BNN infers spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases through the calibration against observations. This ensemble scheme of BNN sufficiently leverages individual model skill for accurate predictions as well as provides interpretability about which models contribute more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times to inform model development. Additionally, BNN accurately quantifies epistemic uncertainty to avoid overconfident projections. We demonstrate BNN’s superior prediction performance to three state-of-the-art ensemble approaches and discuss its interpretability and uncertainty quantification.

Fan, Patrick↗

Search for electroweak production of charginos and neutralinos in proton-proton collisions at $$ \sqrt{s} $$ = 13 TeV

A direct search for electroweak production of charginos and neutralinos is presented. Events with three or four leptons, with up to two hadronically decaying $\tau$ leptons, or two same-sign light leptons are analyzed. The data sample consists of 137 fb$^{-1}$ of proton-proton collisions with a center of mass energy of 13 TeV, recorded with the CMS detector at the LHC. The results are interpreted in terms of several simplified models. These represent a broad range of production and decay scenarios for charginos and neutralinos. A parametric neural network is used to target several of the models with large backgrounds. In addition, results using orthogonal search regions are provided for all the models, simplifying alternative theoretical interpretations of the results. Depending on the model hypotheses, charginos and neutralinos with masses up to values between 300 and 1450 GeV are excluded at 95% confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Studies of new Higgs boson interactions through nonresonant $HH$ production in the $ b\overline{b}\gamma \gamma $ final state in $pp$ collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for nonresonant Higgs boson pair production in the $ b\overline{b}\gamma \gamma $ final state is performed using 140 fb –1 of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. This analysis supersedes and expands upon the previous nonresonant ATLAS results in this final state based on the same data sample. The analysis strategy is optimised to probe anomalous values not only of the Higgs (H) boson self-coupling modifier κλ but also of the quartic HHVV (V = W, Z) coupling modifier κ 2V . No significant excess above the expected background from Standard Model processes is observed. An observed upper limit μHH < 4.0 is set at 95% confidence level on the Higgs boson pair production cross-section normalised to its Standard Model prediction. The 95% confidence intervals for the coupling modifiers are –1.4 < κ λ < 6.9 and –0.5 < κ 2V < 2.7, assuming all other Higgs boson couplings except the one under study are fixed to the Standard Model predictions. The results are interpreted in the Standard Model effective field theory and Higgs effective field theory frameworks in terms of constraints on the couplings of anomalous Higgs boson (self-)interactions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for a scalar partner of the top quark in the all-hadronic $t{\bar{t}}$ plus missing transverse momentum final state at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for direct pair production of scalar partners of the top quark (top squarks or scalar third-generation up-type leptoquarks) in the all-hadronic $t{\bar{t}}$ plus missing transverse momentum final state is presented. The analysis of 139 $\hbox {fb}^{-1}$ of ${\sqrt{s}=13}$ TeV proton–proton collision data collected using the ATLAS detector at the LHC yields no significant excess over the Standard Model background expectation. To interpret the results, a supersymmetric model is used where the top squark decays via ${\tilde{t}} \rightarrow t^{(*)} {\tilde{\chi }}^0_1$ t ~ → t ( * ) χ ~ 1 0 , with $t^{(*)}$ t ( * ) denoting an on-shell (off-shell) top quark and ${\tilde{\chi }}^0_1$ χ ~ 1 0 the lightest neutralino. Three specific event selections are optimised for the following scenarios. In the scenario where $m_{{\tilde{t}}}> m_t+m_{{\tilde{\chi }}^0_1}$ m t ~ > m t + m χ ~ 1 0 , top squark masses are excluded in the range 400–1250 GeV for ${\tilde{\chi }}^0_1$ χ ~ 1 0 masses below 200 GeV at 95% confidence level. In the situation where $m_{{\tilde{t}}}\sim m_t+m_{{\tilde{\chi }}^0_1}$ m t ~ ~ m t + m χ ~ 1 0 , top squark masses in the range 300–630 GeV are excluded, while in the case where $m_{{\tilde{t}}}< m_W+m_b+m_{{\tilde{\chi }}^0_1}$ m t ~ < m W + m b + m χ ~ 1 0 (with $m_{{\tilde{t}}}-m_{{\tilde{\chi }}^0_1}\ge 5$ m t ~ - m χ ~ 1 0 ≥ 5 GeV), considered for the first time in an ATLAS all-hadronic search, top squark masses in the range 300–660 GeV are excluded. Limits are also set for scalar third-generation up-type leptoquarks, excluding leptoquarks with masses below 1240 GeV when considering only leptoquark decays into a top quark and a neutrino.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Genetic programming for interpretable, data-driven continuum damage models.

The damage mechanisms that lead to failure in engineering alloys have been studied extensively, but converting this knowledge into constitutive models that are suitable for engineering-scale analysis remains a challenge. Evolution laws for continuum damage have been developed in the past and have proven effective but suffer from many non-physical assumptions that inhibit the overall accuracy of the model. Further, the assumptions inherent in these existing models prevent them from being applicable to a broad class of materials. At the same time, computational models of fine-scale damage mechanisms continue to advance making it tractable to generate large training data sets through computer simulation. Data-driven machine learning approaches can leverage these data sets to avoid making limiting assumptions, and instead produce models directly from the results of microstructural simulations and/or experiments. Many of these machine learning approaches are rapid and accurate, but they offer little to no insight into the underlying relationships among state variables being discovered. Conversely, genetic programming symbolic regression (GPSR) is a machine learning method that produces analytic expressions relating the state variables, allowing maximal insight and interpretability. To that end, we propose using GPSR as a data-driven method of obtaining microstructurally informed continuum damage models. Data is generated using microstructural simulations of damage evolution, parameterized over microstructural statistics (i.e., pore shape) and nominally applied deformations. Analytic expressions for damage evolution are obtained from the data using GPSR, and these expressions are then utilized within a continuum constitutive model. Overall, this approach is a promising method of automatically obtaining analytic relations describing constitutive phenomena in a material.

Buche, Michael Robert↗

Enabling Strong Neutrino Self-Interaction with an Unparticle Mediator

Recent explorations of the cosmic microwave background and the large-scale structure of the universe have indicated a preference for sizable neutrino self-interactions, much stronger than what the standard model offers. When interpreted in the context of simple particle-physics models with a light, neutrinophilic scalar mediator, some of the hints are already in tension with the combination of terrestrial, astrophysical, and cosmological constraints. We take a novel approach by considering neutrino self-interactions through a mediator with a smooth, continuous spectral density function. We consider Georgi’s unparticle with a mass gap as a concrete example and point out two useful effects for mitigating two leading constraints. (i) The Unparticle is “broadband’—it occupies a wide range of masses which allows it to pass the early universe constraint on effective number of extra neutrinos ( Δ N eff ) even if the mass gap lies below the MeV scale. (ii) Scattering involving unparticles is less resonant, which lifts the constraint set by IceCube based on a recent measurement of ultra-high-energy cosmogenic neutrinos. Our analysis shows that an unparticle mediator can open up ample parameter space for strong neutrino self-interactions of interest to cosmology and serves a well-motivated target for upcoming experiments. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Foroughi-Abari, Saeid (ORCID:0000000294061896)↗

Search for chargino–neutralino pair production in final states with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in $$\sqrt{s} = 13$$ TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for chargino–neutralino pair production in three-lepton final states with missing transverse momentum is presented. The study is based on a dataset of $\sqrt{s}$=13 TeV pp collisions recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 . No significant excess relative to the Standard Model predictions is found in data. The results are interpreted in simplified models of supersymmetry, and statistically combined with results from a previous ATLAS search for compressed spectra in two-lepton final states. Various scenarios for the production and decay of charginos ($\tilde{χ}^±_1$) and neutralinos ($\tilde{χ}^0_2$) are considered. For pure higgsino $\tilde{χ}^±_1$$\tilde{χ}^0_2$ pair-production scenarios, exclusion limits at 95% confidence level are set on $\tilde{χ}^0_2$ masses up to 210 GeV. Limits are also set for pure wino $\tilde{χ}^±_1$$\tilde{χ}^0_2$ pair production, on $\tilde{χ}^0_2$ masses up to 640 GeV for decays via on-shell W and Z bosons, up to 300 GeV for decays via off-shell W and Z bosons, and up to 190 GeV for decays via W and Standard Model Higgs bosons.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗