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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The need to operationalize climate modelling

We report climate models have changed the world. Starting out as simple globally averaged representations of vertical energy exchanges in the atmosphere in the 1950s, today’s climate models are highly complex numerical representations of the Earth system based on the fundamental laws of physics. Their development has largely been driven by scientific curiosity, with the many approximate virtual representations of Earth available today enabling the interrogation of the past and present climate system and the development of an understanding of the influence of human activity on its future. It is this understanding that underpins the climate mitigation targets enshrined in the Paris Agreement to limit global mean temperature increases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A trade-off between plant and soil carbon storage under elevated CO 2

Terrestrial ecosystems remove about 30 per cent of the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emitted by human activities each year, yet the persistence of this carbon sink depends partly on how plant biomass and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks respond to future increases in atmospheric CO 2 . Although plant biomass often increases in elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) experiments, SOC has been observed to increase, remain unchanged or even decline. The mechanisms that drive this variation across experiments remain poorly understood, creating uncertainty in climate projections. In this study we synthesized data from 108 eCO 2 experiments and found that the effect of eCO 2 on SOC stocks is best explained by a negative relationship with plant biomass: when plant biomass is strongly stimulated by eCO 2 , SOC storage declines; conversely, when biomass is weakly stimulated, SOC storage increases. This trade-off appears to be related to plant nutrient acquisition, in which plants increase their biomass by mining the soil for nutrients, which decreases SOC storage. We found that, overall, SOC stocks increase with eCO 2 in grasslands (8 ± 2 per cent) but not in forests (0 ± 2 per cent), even though plant biomass in grasslands increase less (9 ± 3 per cent) than in forests (23 ± 2 per cent). Ecosystem models do not reproduce this trade-off, which implies that projections of SOC may need to be revised.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol

Cloud reflectivity is sensitive to atmospheric aerosol concentrations because aerosols provide the condensation nuclei on which water condenses. Increased aerosol concentrations due to human activity affect droplet number concentration, liquid water and cloud fraction, but these changes are subject to large uncertainties. Ship tracks, long lines of polluted clouds that are visible in satellite images, are one of the main tools for quantifying aerosol–cloud interactions. However, only a small fraction of the clouds polluted by shipping show ship tracks. Here we show that even when no ship tracks are visible in satellite images, aerosol emissions change cloud properties substantially. We develop a new method to quantify the effect of shipping on all clouds, showing a cloud droplet number increase and a more positive liquid water response when there are no visible tracks. We directly detect shipping-induced cloud property changes in the trade cumulus regions of the Atlantic, which are known to display almost no visible tracks. Our results indicate that previous studies of ship tracks were suffering from selection biases by focusing only on visible tracks from satellite imagery. The strong liquid water path response we find translates to a larger aerosol cooling effect on the climate, potentially masking a higher climate sensitivity than observed temperature trends would otherwise suggest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Precipitation regime changes in High Mountain Asia driven by cleaner air

High Mountain Asia (HMA) has experienced a spatial imbalance in water resources in recent decades, partly due to a dipolar pattern of precipitation changes known as South Drying-North Wetting. These changes can be influenced by both human activities and internal climate variability. While climate projections indicate a future widespread wetting trend over HMA, the timing and mechanism of the transition from a dipolar to a monopolar pattern remain unknown. Here, we demonstrate that the observed dipolar precipitation change in HMA during summer is primarily driven by westerly- and monsoon-associated precipitation patterns. The weakening of the Asian westerly jet, caused by uneven emission of anthropogenic aerosols, favors the dipolar precipitation trend during 1951-2020. Additionally, the phase transition of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation induces an out-of-phase precipitation change between the core region of the South Asian monsoon and southeastern HMA. Under medium or high emission scenarios, corresponding to a global warming of 0.6-1.1 °C compared to the present, the dipolar pattern is projected to shift into a monopolar wetting trend in the 2040s. This shift of precipitation patterns is mainly attributed to the intensified jet stream resulting from reduced emissions of anthropogenic aerosols. In conclusion, these findings underscore the importance of considering the impact of aerosol emission reduction in future social planning by policymakers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coassembly and binning of a twenty-year metagenomic time-series from Lake Mendota

Abstract The North Temperate Lakes Long-Term Ecological Research (NTL-LTER) program has been extensively used to improve understanding of how aquatic ecosystems respond to environmental stressors, climate fluctuations, and human activities. Here, we report on the metagenomes of samples collected between 2000 and 2019 from Lake Mendota, a freshwater eutrophic lake within the NTL-LTER site. We utilized the distributed metagenome assembler MetaHipMer to coassemble over 10 terabases (Tbp) of data from 471 individual Illumina-sequenced metagenomes. A total of 95,523,664 contigs were assembled and binned to generate 1,894 non-redundant metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) with ≥50% completeness and ≤10% contamination. Phylogenomic analysis revealed that the MAGs were nearly exclusively bacterial, dominated by Pseudomonadota (Proteobacteria, N = 623) and Bacteroidota (N = 321). Nine eukaryotic MAGs were identified by eukCC with six assigned to the phylum Chlorophyta. Additionally, 6,350 high-quality viral sequences were identified by geNomad with the majority classified in the phylum Uroviricota. This expansive coassembled metagenomic dataset provides an unprecedented foundation to advance understanding of microbial communities in freshwater ecosystems and explore temporal ecosystem dynamics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effect of mammalian mesopredator exclusion on vertebrate scavenging communities

Carrion is a valuable resource used by facultative scavengers across the globe. Due to conficts with humans, many vertebrate scavengers have experienced population declines due to direct persecution or indirect efects of human activities. However, little is known about the implications of altered scavenger community composition on the fate and efciency of carrion removal within ecosystems. In particular, mammalian mesopredators are efcient scavengers that are often subjected to control, thus, it is important to understand how the reduction of this scavenger guild infuences the fate of carrion resources and efciency of carrion removal within ecosystems. We evaluated the infuence of the absence of mammalian mesopredators on vertebrate scavenging dynamics by comparing the efciency of carrion removal and species composition at carrion between sites where we experimentally manipulated mesopredator abundance and paired control sites. Overall scavenging rates were high, even within our mesopredator exclusion sites (79% of carcasses). Despite the exclusion of an entire guild of dominant scavengers, we saw little efect on scavenging dynamics due to the extensive acquisition of carrion by avian scavengers. However, we observed a slight reduction in vertebrate scavenging efciency in sites where mesopredators were excluded. Our results suggest vertebrate communities are highly efcient at carrion removal, as we saw a functional response by avian scavengers to increased carrion availability. These data provide insights into the impact of mesopredator control on food web dynamics, and build upon the growing body of knowledge investigating the role of vertebrate scavengers on ecosystem services provided through carrion removal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increased abundance of a common scavenger affects allocation of carrion but not efficiency of carcass removal in the Fukushima Exclusion Zone

Abstract The 2011 nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan caused the evacuation of > 100,000 people and prompted studies on environmental impacts of radiological contamination. However, few researchers have explored how the human evacuation has affected ecosystem processes. Despite contamination, one common scavenger (wild boar, Sus scrofa ) is 2–3× more abundant inside the Fukushima Exclusion Zone (FEZ). Shifts in abundance of some scavenger species can have cascading effects on ecosystems, so our objective was to investigate impacts of the evacuation and the resulting increase in wild boar on vertebrate scavenger communities. We deployed cameras at 300 carcasses in the FEZ and a nearby inhabited area, and quantified carcass fate, scavenger species, and detection/persistence times. We also tested effects of carcass size and habitat on scavenger community composition and efficiency by balancing trials across two carcass sizes and habitats in each zone. Overall scavenger richness and carcass removal rates (73%) were similar in the FEZ and inhabited area, but species-specific carcass removal rates and occurrence differed between zones. Wild boar removed substantially more carcasses inside the FEZ, with implications for nutrient and contaminant distribution. Our results suggest carcass size affects scavenging dynamics more than human activity or habitat, and abundance changes of common scavengers can influence carrion resource allocation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of vessel traffic and ocean noise on gray whale stress hormones

Human use of marinescapes is rapidly increasing, especially in populated nearshore regions where recreational vessel traffic can be dense. Marine animals can have a physiological response to such elevated human activity that can impact individual health and population dynamics. To understand the physiological impacts of vessel traffic on baleen whales, we investigated the adrenal stress response of gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) to variable vessel traffic levels through an assessment of fecal glucocorticoid metabolite (fGC) concentrations. This analysis was conducted at the individual level, at multiple temporal scales (1–7 days), and accounted for factors that may confound fGC: sex, age, nutritional status, and reproductive state. Data were collected in Oregon, USA, from June to October of 2016–2018. Results indicate significant correlations between fGC, month, and vessel counts from the day prior to fecal sample collection. Furthermore, we show a significant positive correlation between vessel traffic and underwater ambient noise levels, which indicates that noise produced by vessel traffic may be a causal factor for the increased fGC. This study increases knowledge of gray whale physiological response to vessel traffic and may inform management decisions regarding regulations of vessel traffic activities and thresholds near critical whale habitats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Case study on climate change effects and food security in Southeast Asia

Agriculture, a cornerstone of human civilization, faces rising challenges from climate change, resource limitations, and stagnating yields. Precise crop production forecasts are crucial for shaping trade policies, development strategies, and humanitarian initiatives. This study introduces a comprehensive machine learning framework designed to predict crop production. We leverage CMIP5 climate projections under a moderate carbon emission scenario to evaluate the future suitability of agricultural lands and incorporate climatic data, historical agricultural trends, and fertilizer usage to project yield changes. Our integrated approach forecasts significant regional variations in crop production across Southeast Asia by 2028, identifying potential cropland utilization. Specifically, the cropland area in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Viet Nam is projected to decline by more than 10% if no action is taken, and there is potential to mitigate that loss. Moreover, rice production is projected to decline by 19% in Viet Nam and 7% in Thailand, while the Philippines may see a 5% increase compared to 2021 levels. Our findings underscore the critical impacts of climate change and human activities on agricultural productivity, offering essential insights for policy-making and fostering international cooperation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Heavy metal imprints in Antarctic snow from research and tourism

Antarctica, long regarded as one of the last pristine environments on Earth, is increasingly affected by human activity. As tourism surges and scientific operations expand, air pollution from local emissions is raising new environmental concerns. Here, in this study, we analyze surface snow samples collected along a ~2,000 km transect, from the South Shetland Islands (62°S) to the Ellsworth Mountains (79°S), to map the geochemical fingerprints of aerosol deposition. We identify distinct spatial patterns shaped by crustal, marine, biogenic, and anthropogenic sources. Notably, we detect heavy metal imprints in the snow chemistry of the northern Antarctic Peninsula, where major research stations are concentrated and marine tourism traffic is most intense. Our findings shed light on the extent of the impacts from energy-intensive local activities in Antarctica, underscoring the need for enhanced environmental monitoring and sustainable management strategies in this fragile region.

Cordero, Raúl R. [Univ. of Groningen, Leeuwarden (↗
DOE OSTI2024

Abrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming

Abstract Human activities affect the Earth’s climate through modifying the composition of the atmosphere, which then creates radiative forcing that drives climate change. The warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases has been partially balanced by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. In 2020, fuel regulations abruptly reduced the emission of sulfur dioxide from international shipping by about 80% and created an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock with global impact. Here we estimate the regulation leads to a radiative forcing of $$+0.2\pm 0.11$$ + 0.2 ± 0.11 Wm −2 averaged over the global ocean. The amount of radiative forcing could lead to a doubling (or more) of the warming rate in the 2020 s compared with the rate since 1980 with strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The warming effect is consistent with the recent observed strong warming in 2023 and expected to make the 2020 s anomalously warm. The forcing is equivalent in magnitude to 80% of the measured increase in planetary heat uptake since 2020. The radiative forcing also has strong hemispheric contrast, which has important implications for precipitation pattern changes. Our result suggests marine cloud brightening may be a viable geoengineering method in temporarily cooling the climate that has its unique challenges due to inherent spatiotemporal heterogeneity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Movement Motivations, Demand, and Inflow-Outflow Dynamics in Four Cities (New York, Chicago, Austin, and San Diego) During COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted a wide range of human activities, from food delivery habits to major moving and travel decisions. Results indicate multiple pandemic-related factors have influenced millions of relocation decisions by Americans (e.g., health risk, financial pressures, more space, and employment), and there are various positive economic and social outcomes of this influence (e.g., remote work and education), enabling more affordable living and opportunity. This paper addresses COVID-19 impacts on mobility, especially involving permanent relocations. Survey design and data analysis with U-Haul targeted customers in Austin, New York, San Diego, and Chicago to understand mobility, new moving dynamics, and motivations.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19 pandemic reveals persistent disparities in nitrogen dioxide pollution

We leverage the unparalleled changes in human activity during COVID-19 and the unmatched capabilities of the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument to understand how lockdowns impact ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) pollution disparities in the United States. The least White communities experienced the largest NO 2 reductions during lockdowns; however, disparities between the least and most White communities are so large that the least White communities still faced higher NO 2 levels during lockdowns than the most White communities experienced prior to lockdowns, despite a ~50% reduction in passenger vehicle traffic. Similar findings hold for ethnic, income, and educational attainment population subgroups. Future strategies to reduce NO 2 disparities will need to target emissions from heavy-duty vehicles.

TROPOMI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Shipping regulations lead to large reduction in cloud perturbations

Global shipping accounts for 13% of global emissions of SO2, which, once oxidized to sulfate aerosol, acts to cool the planet both directly by scattering sunlight and indirectly by increasing the albedo of clouds. This cooling due to sulfate aerosol offsets some of the warming effect of greenhouse gasses and is the largest uncertainty in determining the change in the Earth’s radiative balance by human activity. Ship tracks—the visible manifestation of the indirect of effect of ship emissions on clouds as quasi-linear features—have long provided an opportunity to quantify these effects. However, they have been arduous to catalog and typically studied only in particular regions for short periods of time. Using a machine-learning algorithm to automate their detection we catalog more than 1 million ship tracks to provide a global climatology. We use this to investigate the effect of stringent fuel regulations introduced by the International Maritime Organization in 2020 on their global prevalence since then, while accounting for the disruption in global commerce caused by COVID-19. We find a marked, but clearly nonlinear, decline in ship tracks globally: An 80% reduction in SO x emissions causes only a 25% reduction in the number of tracks detected.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A large net carbon loss attributed to anthropogenic and natural disturbances in the Amazon Arc of Deforestation

The Amazon forest contains globally important carbon stocks, but in recent years, atmospheric measurements suggest that it has been releasing more carbon than it has absorbed because of deforestation and forest degradation. Accurately attributing the sources of carbon loss to forest degradation and natural disturbances remains a challenge because of the difficulty of classifying disturbances and simultaneously estimating carbon changes. We used a unique, randomized, repeated, very high-resolution airborne laser scanning survey to provide a direct, detailed, and high-resolution partitioning of aboveground carbon gains and losses in the Brazilian Arc of Deforestation. Our analysis revealed that disturbances directly attributed to human activity impacted 4.2% of the survey area while windthrows and other disturbances affected 2.7% and 14.7%, respectively. Extrapolating the lidar-based statistics to the study area (544,300 km 2 ), we found that 24.1, 24.2, and 14.5 Tg C y −1 were lost through clearing, fires, and logging, respectively. The losses due to large windthrows (21.5 Tg C y −1 ) and other disturbances (50.3 Tg C y −1 ) were partially counterbalanced by forest growth (44.1 Tg C y −1 ). Our high-resolution estimates demonstrated a greater loss of carbon through forest degradation than through deforestation and a net loss of carbon of 90.5 ± 16.6 Tg C y −1 for the study region attributable to both anthropogenic and natural processes. This study highlights the role of forest degradation in the carbon balance for this critical region in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing and quantifying uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts on air quality

Climate change can aggravate air pollution, with important public health and environmental consequences. While major sources of uncertainty in climate change projections - greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, model response, and internal variability - have been investigated extensively, their propagation to estimates of air quality impacts has not been systematically assessed. Here, we compare these uncertainties using a coupled modeling framework that includes a human activity model, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, and a global atmospheric chemistry model. Uncertainties in projections of U.S. air quality under 21st century climate change are quantified based on a climate-chemistry ensemble that includes multiple initializations, representations of climate sensitivity, and climate policy scenarios, under constant air pollution emissions. We find that climate-related uncertainties are comparable at mid-century, making it difficult to distinguish the impact of variations in GHG emissions on ozone and particulate matter pollution. While GHG emissions scenario eventually becomes the dominant uncertainty based on the scenarios considered, all sources of uncertainty are significant through the end of the century. The results provide insights into intrinsically different uncertainties in projections of air pollution impacts and the potential for large ensembles to better capture them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying airborne fraction trends and the destination of anthropogenic CO 2 by tracking carbon flows in a simple climate model

Abstract Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations have increased as a direct result of human activity and are at their highest level over the last 2 million years, with profound impacts on the Earth system. However, the magnitude and future dynamics of land and ocean carbon sinks are not well understood; therefore, the amount of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions that remain in the atmosphere (the airborne fraction) is poorly constrained. This work aims to quantify the sources and controls of atmospheric CO 2 , the fate of anthropogenic CO 2 over time, and the likelihood of a trend in the airborne fraction. We use Hector v3.0, a coupled simple climate and carbon cycle model with the novel ability to explicitly track carbon as it flows through the Earth system. We use key model parameters in a Monte Carlo analysis of 15 000 model runs from 1750 to 2300. Results are filtered for physical realism against historical observations and CMIP6 projection data, and we calculate the relative importance of parameters controlling how much anthropogenic carbon ends up in the atmosphere. Modeled airborne fraction was roughly 52%, consistent with observational studies. The overwhelming majority of model runs exhibited a negative trend in the airborne fraction from 1960–2020, implying that current-day land and ocean sinks are proportionally taking up more carbon than the atmosphere. However, the percentage of atmospheric CO 2 derived from anthropogenic origins can be much higher because of Earth system feedbacks. We find it peaks at over 90% between 2010–2050. Moreover, when looking at the destination of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions, only a quarter ends up in the atmosphere while more than half of emissions are taken up by the land sink on centennial timescales. This study evaluates the likelihood of airborne fraction trends and provides insights into the dynamics of anthropogenic CO 2 in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the environmental drivers of vegetation seasonality changes in the northern extratropical latitudes: a quantitative analysis *

Abstract Vegetation seasonality in the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) has changed dramatically, but our understanding of how it responds to climate change (e.g. temperature, soil moisture, shortwave radiation) and human activities (e.g. elevated CO 2 concentration) remains insufficient. In this study, we used two remote-sensing-based leaf area index and factorial simulations from the TRENDY models to attribute the changes in the integrated vegetation seasonality index ( S ), which captures both the concentration and magnitude of vegetation growth throughout the year, to climate, CO 2 , and land use and land cover change (LULCC). We found that from 2003 to 2020, the enhanced average S in the NEL (MODIS: 0.0022 yr −1 , p < 0.05; GLOBMAP: 0.0018 yr −1 , p < 0.05; TRENDY S3 [i.e. the scenario considering both time-varying climate, CO 2 , and LULCC]: 0.0011 ± 7.5174 × 10 −4 yr −1 , p < 0.05) was primarily determined by the elevated CO 2 concentration (5.3 × 10 −4 ± 3.8 × 10 −4 yr −1 , p < 0.05) and secondly controlled by the combined climate change (4.6 × 10 −4 ± 6.6 × 10 −4 yr −1 , p > 0.1). Geographically, negative trends in the vegetation growth concentration were dominated by climate change (31.4%), while both climate change (47.9%) and CO 2 (31.9%) contributed to the enhanced magnitude of vegetation growth. Furthermore, around 60% of the study areas showed that simulated major climatic drivers of S variability exhibited the same dominant factor as observed in either the MODIS or GLOBMAP data. Our research emphasizes the crucial connection between environmental factors and vegetation seasonality, providing valuable insights for policymakers and land managers in developing sustainable ecosystem management strategies amidst a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗