Simulation, Modeling, and Dynamically Based Parameterization of Organized Tropical Convection for Global Climate Models
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Mitchell W. Moncrieff↗
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Use of GPS and InSAR Technology and its Further Development in Earthquake Modeling
Global Positioning System (GPS) data are useful for understanding both interseismic and postseismic deformation. Models of GPS data suggest that the lower crust, lateral heterogeneity, and fault slip, all provide a role in the earthquake cycle.
GPS earthquake↗
Dynamical Evolution of the Inner Heliosphere Approaching Solar Activity Maximum: Interpreting Ulysses Observations Using a Global MHD Model
In this study we describe a series of MHD simulations covering the time period from 12 January 1999 to 19 September 2001 (Carrington Rotation 1945 to 1980). This interval coincided with: (1) the Sun s approach toward solar maximum; and (2) Ulysses second descent to the southern polar regions, rapid latitude scan, and arrival into the northern polar regions. We focus on the evolution of several key parameters during this time, including the photospheric magnetic field, the computed coronal hole boundaries, the computed velocity profile near the Sun, and the plasma and magnetic field parameters at the location of Ulysses. The model results provide a global context for interpreting the often complex in situ measurements. We also present a heuristic explanation of stream dynamics to describe the morphology of interaction regions at solar maximum and contrast it with the picture that resulted from Ulysses first orbit, which occurred during more quiescent solar conditions. The simulation results described here are available at: http://sun.saic.com.
Riley, Pete↗
Evaluation of Aerosol-cloud Interaction in the GISS Model E Using ARM Observations
Observations from the US Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program are used to evaluate the ability of the NASA GISS ModelE global climate model in reproducing observed interactions between aerosols and clouds. Included in the evaluation are comparisons of basic meteorology and aerosol properties, droplet activation, effective radius parameterizations, and surface-based evaluations of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). Differences between the simulated and observed ACI are generally large, but these differences may result partially from vertical distribution of aerosol in the model, rather than the representation of physical processes governing the interactions between aerosols and clouds. Compared to the current observations, the ModelE often features elevated droplet concentrations for a given aerosol concentration, indicating that the activation parameterizations used may be too aggressive. Additionally, parameterizations for effective radius commonly used in models were tested using ARM observations, and there was no clear superior parameterization for the cases reviewed here. This lack of consensus is demonstrated to result in potentially large, statistically significant differences to surface radiative budgets, should one parameterization be chosen over another.
Clouds↗
Disentangling the Regional Climate Impacts of Competing Vegetation Responses to Elevated Atmospheric CO2
Biophysical vegetation responses to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) affect regional hydroclimate through two competing mechanisms. Higher CO2 increases leaf area (LAI), thereby increasing transpiration and water losses. Simultaneously, elevated CO2 reduces stomatal conductance and transpiration, thereby increasing rootzone soil moisture. Which mechanism dominates in the future is highly uncertain, partly because these two processes are difficult to explicitly separate within dynamic vegetation models. We address this challenge by using the GISS ModelE global climate model to conduct a novel set of idealized 2×CO2 sensitivity experiments to: evaluate the total vegetation biophysical contribution to regional climate change under high CO2; and quantify the separate contributions of enhanced LAI and reduced stomatal conductance to regional hydroclimate responses. We find that increased LAI exacerbates soil moisture deficits across the sub‐tropics and more water‐limited regions, but also attenuates warming by ∼0.5–1°C in the US Southwest, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and northern South America. Reduced stomatal conductance effects contribute ∼1°C of summertime warming. For some regions, enhanced LAI and reduced stomatal conductance produce nonlinear and either competing or mutually amplifying hydroclimate responses. In northeastern Australia, these effects combine to exacerbate radiation‐forced warming and contribute to year‐round water limitation. Conversely, at higher latitudes these combined effects result in less warming than would otherwise be predicted due to nonlinear responses. These results highlight substantial regional variation in CO2‐driven vegetation responses and the importance of improving model representations of these processes to better quantify regional hydroclimate impacts.
Regional climate impacts↗
Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) Simulated with a Global Mesoscale Model
In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z 22-26 October 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z 16-18 October captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to 6 days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next 2 day period of 18Z 21-23 October. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multiscale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low-level westerly wind belt (WWB) and (2) the appearance of the upper-level trough at 200 hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low-level WWB and upper-level trough are likely associated with a Madden-Julian Oscillation.
multiscale processes↗
A global empirical model of thermospheric composition based on OGO-6 mass spectrometer measurements.
A global empirical model for magnetically quiet conditions has been developed to describe longitudinally averaged OGO-6 N2, O, and He densities (in the altitude range 400 to 600 km) by means of an expansion into spherical harmonics. The annual asymmetric component in N2 density corresponds to an increase of about 400 K between winter and summer poles, which is about a factor of three greater than in the Jacchia model. However, the corresponding oxygen component at satellite altitudes reflects an increase between winter and summer comparable to that in the Jacchia model; this implies that at 120 km atomic oxygen increases by more than a factor of two between summer and winter poles. The amplitude of the symmetric semiannual component in N2 is larger at the poles than the equator. At the poles, the N2 variation corresponds to a temperature decrease of about 70 K from mid-April to mid-July. At low latitudes, the daily temperature maximum occurs close to 16 hours local time, nearly in agreement with radar backscatter observations.
Hedin, A. E.↗
Exploring the Climatic Impact of Bi-Modal Dust Particle Size Distributions During the MY34/2018 Global Dust Storm with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model.
We have implemented a bi-modal dust lifting scheme in the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model (GCM) and investigated the climatic impact on the MY34/2018 Global Dust Storm (GDS). We found that the climate is measurably responsive to the inclusion of a second, smaller dust mode. Dust tends to be lifted through a deeper column in the atmosphere, which is reflected in the climate as changes to atmospheric temperature, tide amplitudes, and surface temperatures. Adding a modest fraction of a smaller dust mode improves simulations during the GDS compared to Curiosity semi-diurnal tide observations as well as Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) T15 brightness temperatures
R A Urata↗
A stochastic-dynamic model for global atmospheric mass field statistics
A model that yields the spatial correlation structure of atmospheric mass field forecast errors was developed. The model is governed by the potential vorticity equation forced by random noise. Expansion in spherical harmonics and correlation function was computed analytically using the expansion coefficients. The finite difference equivalent was solved using a fast Poisson solver and the correlation function was computed using stratified sampling of the individual realization of F(omega) and hence of phi(omega). A higher order equation for gamma was derived and solved directly in finite differences by two successive applications of the fast Poisson solver. The methods were compared for accuracy and efficiency and the third method was chosen as clearly superior. The results agree well with the latitude dependence of observed atmospheric correlation data. The value of the parameter c sub o which gives the best fit to the data is close to the value expected from dynamical considerations.
Ghil, M.↗
Operational physical models of the ionosphere
Global models of the neutral constituents are considered relevant to ion density models and improved knowledge of the ion chemistry. Information provided on the pressure gradients that control the wind system and the electric field systems due to balloon, satellite, and incoherent scatter measurements is discussed along with the implication of these results to the development of global ionospheric models. The current state of knowledge of the factors controlling the large day to day variations in the ionosphere and possible approaches for operational models are reviewed.
Nisbet, J. S.↗
A model of global convection in Jupiter's magnetosphere
Voyager observations of Jupiter's magnetosphere are compared with the planetary wind model in which corotation must break down outside some Alfven critical radius and a centrifugally driven wind outflow must develop. It is found that the model does not agree with the observations. A new global convection model for the Jovian magnetosphere is proposed, based on models of quasi-stationary plasma convection in the earth's magnetosphere. The model predicts a substantial dawn-dusk asymmetry in the structure, dynamics, and plasma composition of the magnetopause and magnetosheath. The model also predicts a region of cross-tail flow in the nightside plasma sheet containing a substantial admixture of solar wind plasma.
Cheng, A. F.↗
Climate Lecture 20: The Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM)
Climate change will profoundly impact Earth's environmental health as well as the world's economic and geopolitical landscape over the coming decades. The impacts of climate change are, in fact, already beginning to be experienced and have the potential to affect every living plant and animal on Earth within decades. Given this reality, every citizen of this planet should have the right to knowledge about the Earth's climate system and have the option to adapt to, or help mitigate the profound changes that are coming. In addition, a portion of the workforce needs to be capable of interpreting and analyzing climate information because, since the impacts of climate change will be widespread, pervasive, and continue to change over time, more professions will be interacting with climate data. We are already at, or past, the point where educators and their students require access to the scientific and technological resources - computer models, data, and visualization tools - that scientists use daily in the study of climate change. Although scientists use many methods to study Earth's climate system, global climate models (GCMs) have become the primary tools for exploring the complex interactions between components of the entire system: atmosphere, oceans, and land. GCMs are used to make projections of future climate change, to simulate climates of the past, and even to help scientists look for life on other planets. Like any model, a GCM can help people evaluate actions before they are taken. Like Business Intelligence software, they are Climate Intelligence tools. Unfortunately, GCMs are black boxes to most people. A previous chapter in this book by Gary Russell, entitled Building a Climate Model, is one example of the growing body of literature aimed at the general public describing the inner workings of global climate models. This literature goes a long way toward explaining climate model fundamentals. However, it will not be enough to alleviate their black-box nature unless people are afforded hands-on, authentic learning experiences as well.
Chandler, Mark A.↗
A study of carbon monoxide distribution determinations for a global transport model
The primary objective of this grant was to further the development of a global transport/chemistry model that simulates the physico-chemical behavior of methane and carbon monoxide in the troposphere. The computer simulation model is designed to analyze the processes that occur as methane and carbon monoxide are transported from their respective sources to their ultimate fate, e.g., final conversion to CO2, transport to the stratosphere, deposition at ground level, etc.
Peters, Leonard K.↗
Monte Carlo computer simulations of Venus equilibrium and global resurfacing models
Two models have been proposed for the resurfacing history of Venus: (1) equilibrium resurfacing and (2) global resurfacing. The equilibrium model consists of two cases: in case 1, areas less than or equal to 0.03 percent of the planet are spatially randomly resurfaced at intervals of less than or greater than 150,000 yr to produce the observed spatially random distribution of impact craters and average surface age of about 500 m.y.; and in case 2, areas greater than or equal to 10 percent of the planet are resurfaced at intervals of greater than or equal to 50 m.y. The global resurfacing model proposes that the entire planet was resurfaced about 500 m.y. ago, destroying the preexisting crater population and followed by significantly reduced volcanism and tectonism. The present crater population has accumulated since then with only 4 percent of the observed craters having been embayed by more recent lavas. To test the equilibrium resurfacing model we have run several Monte Carlo computer simulations for the two proposed cases. It is shown that the equilibrium resurfacing model is not a valid model for an explanation of the observed crater population characteristics or Venus' resurfacing history. The global resurfacing model is the most likely explanation for the characteristics of Venus' cratering record. The amount of resurfacing since that event, some 500 m.y. ago, can be estimated by a different type of Monte Carolo simulation. To date, our initial simulation has only considered the easiest case to implement. In this case, the volcanic events are randomly distributed across the entire planet and, therefore, contrary to observation, the flooded craters are also randomly distributed across the planet.
Dawson, D. D.↗
Boundary Layer Data Assimilation and Interaction with Parameterizations in the NASA GEOS Model
The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office develops the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), which assimilates a wide range of observations to support medium range and seasonal forecasts and production of reanalyses like MERRA-2. In this talk we report on recent efforts to assimilate boundary layer (PBL) height observations derived from radiosondes, GNSS radio occultation, space-based lidar (CALIPSO, CATS, IceSat-2) and ground-based lidar (MPLNET). A novel component of this project includes examining the influence of model parameterizations on PBL profile estimates. We will discuss physics-based parameterizations of the PBL and how they may benefit or distort representation of PBL profiles in data assimilation. In particular, we consider the tendency of PBL parameterizations to compensate for analysis updates of state variables, effectively reducing the information retained from observations. We will present efforts to reduce this compensation in GEOS by using the PBL height analysis to adjust length scales used in the model PBL parameterizations.
Nathan Arnold↗
Boundary Layer Data Assimilation and Interaction with Parameterizations in the NASA GEOS Model
The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office develops the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), which assimilates a wide range of observations to support medium range and seasonal forecasts and production of reanalyses like MERRA-2. In this talk we report on recent efforts to assimilate boundary layer (PBL) height observations derived from radiosondes, GNSS radio occultation, space-based lidar (CALIPSO, CATS, IceSat-2) and ground-based lidar (MPLNET). A novel component of this project includes examining the influence of model parameterizations on PBL profile estimates. We will discuss physics-based parameterizations of the PBL and how they may benefit or distort representation of PBL profiles in data assimilation. In particular, we consider the tendency of PBL parameterizations to compensate for analysis updates of state variables, effectively reducing the information retained from observations. We will present efforts to reduce this compensation in GEOS by using the PBL height analysis to adjust length scales used in the model PBL parameterizations.
Nathan P. Arnold↗
Global dynamic modeling of a transmission system
The work performed on global dynamic simulation and noise correlation of gear transmission systems at the University of Akron is outlined. The objective is to develop a comprehensive procedure to simulate the dynamics of the gear transmission system coupled with the effects of gear box vibrations. The developed numerical model is benchmarked with results from experimental tests at NASA Lewis Research Center. The modal synthesis approach is used to develop the global transient vibration analysis procedure used in the model. Modal dynamic characteristics of the rotor-gear-bearing system are calculated by the matrix transfer method while those of the gear box are evaluated by the finite element method (NASTRAN). A three-dimensional, axial-lateral coupled bearing model is used to couple the rotor vibrations with the gear box motion. The vibrations between the individual rotor systems are coupled through the nonlinear gear mesh interactions. The global equations of motion are solved in modal coordinates and the transient vibration of the system is evaluated by a variable time-stepping integration scheme. The relationship between housing vibration and resulting noise of the gear transmission system is generated by linear transfer functions using experimental data. A nonlinear relationship of the noise components to the fundamental mesh frequency is developed using the hypercoherence function. The numerically simulated vibrations and predicted noise of the gear transmission system are compared with the experimental results from the gear noise test rig at NASA Lewis Research Center. Results of the comparison indicate that the global dynamic model developed can accurately simulate the dynamics of a gear transmission system.
Choy, F. K.↗
Importance of Sea Ice for Validating Global Climate Models
Reproduction of current day large-scale physical features and processes is a critical test of global climate model performance. Without this benchmark, prognoses of future climate conditions are at best speculation. A fundamental question relevant to this issue is, which processes and observations are both robust and sensitive enough to be used for model validation and furthermore are they also indicators of the problem at hand? In the case of global climate, one of the problems at hand is to distinguish between anthropogenic and naturally occuring climate responses. The polar regions provide an excellent testing ground to examine this problem because few humans make their livelihood there, such that anthropogenic influences in the polar regions usually spawn from global redistribution of a source originating elsewhere. Concomitantly, polar regions are one of the few places where responses to climate are non-anthropogenic. Thus, if an anthropogenic effect has reached the polar regions (e.g. the case of upper atmospheric ozone sensitivity to CFCs), it has most likely had an impact globally but is more difficult to sort out from local effects in areas where anthropogenic activity is high. Within this context, sea ice has served as both a monitoring platform and sensitivity parameter of polar climate response since the time of Fridtjof Nansen. Sea ice resides in the polar regions at the air-sea interface such that changes in either the global atmospheric or oceanic circulation set up complex non-linear responses in sea ice which are uniquely determined. Sea ice currently covers a maximum of about 7% of the earth's surface but was completely absent during the Jurassic Period and far more extensive during the various ice ages. It is also geophysically very thin (typically <10 m in Arctic, <3 m in Antarctic) compared to the troposphere (roughly 10 km) and deep ocean (roughly 3 to 4 km). Because of these unique conditions, polar researchers regard sea ice as one of the more important features to monitor in terms of heat, mass, and momentum transfer between the air and sea and furthermore, the impact of such responses to global climate.
Geiger, Cathleen A.↗