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At least 307 records · Page 17

Global Radiative Forcing of Coupled Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols in a Unified General Circulation Model

Global simulations of sea salt and mineral dust aerosols are integrated into a previously developed unified general circulation model (GCM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM II', that simulates coupled tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, and secondary organic carbon aerosols. The fully coupled gas-aerosol unified GCM allows one to evaluate the extent to which global burdens, radiative forcing, and eventually climate feedbacks of ozone and aerosols are influenced by gas-aerosol chemical interactions. Estimated present-day global burdens of sea salt and mineral dust are 6.93 and 18.1 Tg with lifetimes of 0.4 and 3.9 days, respectively. The GCM is applied to estimate current top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone and all natural and anthropogenic aerosol components. The global annual mean value of the radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone is estimated to be +0.53 W m(sup -2) at TOA and +0.07 W m(sup -2) at the Earth's surface. Global, annual average TOA and surface radiative forcing by all aerosols are estimated as -0.72 and -4.04 W m(sup -2), respectively. While the predicted highest aerosol cooling and heating at TOA are -10 and +12 W m(sup -2) respectively, surface forcing can reach values as high as -30 W m(sup -2), mainly caused by the absorption by black carbon, mineral dust, and OC. We also estimate the effects of chemistry-aerosol coupling on forcing estimates based on currently available understanding of heterogeneous reactions on aerosols. Through altering the burdens of sulfate, nitrate, and ozone, heterogeneous reactions are predicted to change the global mean TOA forcing of aerosols by 17% and influence global mean TOA forcing of tropospheric ozone by 15%.

Liao, Hong↗

The ongoing need for high-resolution regional climate models: Process understanding and stakeholder information

Regional climate modeling addresses our need to understand and simulate climatic processes and phenomena unresolved in global models. High resolution models are generally more skillful in simulating extremes, such as heavy precipitation, strong winds, and severe storms. In addition, research has shown that fine-scale features such as mountains, coastlines, lakes, irrigation, land use, and urban heat islands can substantially influence a region’s climate and its response to changing forcings. Regional climate simulations explicitly simulating convection are now being performed, providing an opportunity to illuminate new physical behavior that previously was represented by parameterizations with large uncertainties. Regional and global models are both advancing toward higher resolution, as computational capacity increases. However, the resolution and ensemble size necessary to produce a sufficient statistical sample of these processes in global models has proven too costly for contemporary supercomputing systems. Regional climate models are thus indispensable tools that complement global models for understanding regional climate variability and change, and are critical for supporting societal responses to changing climate.

Gutowski, William↗

NASADEM Global Elevation Model: Methods and Progress

NASADEM (NASA Digital Elevation Model) is a near-global elevation model that is being produced primarily by completely reprocessing the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) radar data and then merging it with refined ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) GDEM (Global Digital Elevation Model) elevations. The new and improved SRTM elevations in NASADEM result from better vertical control of each SRTM data swath via reference to ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) elevations and from SRTM void reductions using advanced interferometric unwrapping algorithms. Remnant voids will be filled primarily by GDEM3, but with reduction of GDEM glitches (mostly related to clouds) and therefore with only minor need for secondary sources of fill.

GDEM↗

Enhancing the representation of water management in global hydrological models

Abstract. This study enhances an existing global hydrological model (GHM), Xanthos, by adding a new water management module that distinguishes between the operational characteristics of irrigation, hydropower, and flood control reservoirs. We remapped reservoirs in the Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD) database to the 0.5∘ spatial resolution in Xanthos so that a single lumped reservoir exists per grid cell, which yielded 3790 large reservoirs. We implemented unique operation rules for each reservoir type, based on their primary purposes. In particular, hydropower reservoirs have been treated as flood control reservoirs in previous GHM studies, while here, we determined the operation rules for hydropower reservoirs via optimization that maximizes long-term hydropower production. We conducted global simulations using the enhanced Xanthos and validated monthly streamflow for 91 large river basins, where high-quality observed streamflow data were available. A total of 1878 (296 hydropower, 486 irrigation, and 1096 flood control and others) out of the 3790 reservoirs are located in the 91 basins and are part of our reported results. The Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) value (after adding the new water management) is ≥ 0.5 and ≥ 0.0 in 39 and 81 basins, respectively. After adding the new water management module, model performance improved for 75 out of 91 basins and worsened for only 7. To measure the relative difference between explicitly representing hydropower reservoirs and representing hydropower reservoirs as flood control reservoirs (as is commonly done in other GHMs), we use the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). Out of the 296 hydropower reservoirs, the NRMSE is > 0.25 (i.e., considering 0.25 to represent a moderate difference) for over 44 % of the 296 reservoirs when comparing both the simulated reservoir releases and storage time series between the two simulations. We suggest that correctly representing hydropower reservoirs in GHMs could have important implications for our understanding and management of freshwater resource challenges at regional-to-global scales. This enhanced global water management modeling framework will allow the analysis of future global reservoir development and management from a coupled human–earth system perspective.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Strong Regional Influence of Climatic Forcing Datasets on Global Crop Model Ensembles

We present results from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase I, which aligned 14 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and 11 climatic forcing datasets (CFDs) in order to understand how the selection of climate data affects simulated historical crop productivity of maize, wheat, rice and soybean. Results show that CFDs demonstrate mean biases and differences in the probability of extreme events, with larger uncertainty around extreme precipitation and in regions where observational data for climate and crop systems are scarce. Countries where simulations correlate highly with reported FAO national production anomalies tend to have high correlations across most CFDs, whose influence we isolate using multi-GGCM ensembles for each CFD. Correlations compare favorably with the climate signal detected in other studies, although production in many countries is not primarily climate-limited (particularly for rice). Bias-adjusted CFDs most often were among the highest model-observation correlations, although all CFDs produced the highest correlation in at least one top-producing country. Analysis of larger multi-CFD-multi-GGCM ensembles (up to 91 members) shows benefits over the use of smaller subset of models in some regions and farming systems, although bigger is not always better. Our analysis suggests that global assessments should prioritize ensembles based on multiple crop models over multiple CFDs as long as a top-performing CFD is utilized for the focus region.

Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement↗

Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Hierarchical Multiscale Interactions During the Formation of Tropical Cyclone Nargis(2008)

Very severe cyclonic storm Nargis devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, caused tremendous damage and numerous fatalities, and became one of the 10 deadliest tropical cyclones (TCs) of all time. To increase the warning time in order to save lives and reduce economic damage, it is important to extend the lead time in the prediction of TCs like Nargis. As recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputing technology have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, the ability of a global mesoscale model to predict TC genesis in the Indian Ocean is examined in this study with the aim of improving simulations of TC climate. High-resolution global simulations with real data show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted up to 5 days in advance. Preliminary analysis suggests that improved representations of the following environmental conditions and their hierarchical multiscale interactions were the key to achieving this lead time: (1) a westerly wind burst and equatorial trough, (2) an enhanced monsoon circulation with a zero wind shear line, (3) good upper-level outflow with anti-cyclonic wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, and (4) low-level moisture convergence.

Shen, B.-W.↗

Modeling the Water Cycle With the NASA Ames FV3-Based Mars Global Climate Model

It is widely recognized that water ice clouds critically affect the current weather and climate of Mars. Simulating clouds and the water cycle in climate models remains challenging, however, due to the highly sensitive nature of cloud formation to several microphysical parameters that are not well known for Mars and the strong radiative feedbacks that can occur. We have recently ported our cloud microphysics package from the NASA Ames Legacy Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM) to our new MGCM based on the NOAA/GFDL cubed-sphere finite volume (FV3) dynamical core. Here we report on the status of our water cycle simulations and show how our reference simulation compares to observations.

M A Kahre↗

Global empirical models of ionospheric electron temperature in the upper F-region and plasmasphere based on in situ measurements from the Atmosphere Explorer-C, ISIS-1 and ISIS-2 satellites

Langmuir probe measurements of electron temperature, T sub e, in the vicinity of 300, 400, 1400 and 3000 km from the Atmosphere Explorer-C and the ISIS satellites have been employed to construct empirical models of the global distribution of T sub e at each of these altitudes. Legendre polynomials are employed to describe the observations at solstice and equinox in terms of dip latitude and local time. Sources of T sub e variations, such as solar activity, magnetic activity and longitude are found to be of second order importance, although they are resolvable in some cases by comparisons of the data with the model. The behavior of T sub e at the altitudes of these models is discussed in terms of its implications for our understanding of the energy exchange between the F-region and the plasmasphere.

Brace, L. H.↗

Dissipation and Bathymetric Sensitivities in an Unstructured Mesh Global Tidal Model

Abstract The mechanisms and geographic distribution of global tidal dissipation in barotropic tidal models are examined using a high resolution unstructured mesh finite element model. Mesh resolution varies between 2 and 25 km and is especially focused on inner shelves and steep bathymetric gradients. Tidal response sensitivities to bathymetric changes are examined to put into context response sensitivities to frictional processes. We confirm that the Ronne Ice Shelf dramatically affects Atlantic tides but also find that bathymetry in the Hudson Bay system is a critical control. We follow a sequential frictional parameter optimization process and use TPXO9 data‐assimilated tidal elevations as a reference solution. From simulated velocities and depths, dissipation within the global model is estimated and allows us to pinpoint dissipation at high resolution. Boundary layer dissipation is extremely focused with 1.4% of the ocean accounting for 90% of the total. Internal tide friction is much more distributed with 16.7% of the ocean accounting for 90% of the total. Often highly regional dissipation can impact basin‐scale and even ocean wide tides. Optimized boundary layer friction parameters correlate very well with the physical characteristics of the locality with high friction factors associated with energetic tidal regions, deep ocean island chains, and ice covered areas. Global complex M 2 tide errors are 1.94 cm in deep waters. Total global boundary layer and internal tide dissipation are estimated, respectively, at 1.83 and 1.49 TW. This continues the trend in the literature toward attributing more dissipation to internal tides.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-Scale Modeling of Global of Magnetospheric Dynamics

To understand the role of magnetic reconnection in global evolution of magnetosphere and to place spacecraft observations into global context it is essential to perform global simulations with physically motivated model of dissipation that is capable to reproduce reconnection rates predicted by kinetic models. In our efforts to bridge the gap between small scale kinetic modeling and global simulations we introduced an approach that allows to quantify the interaction between large-scale global magnetospheric dynamics and microphysical processes in diffusion regions near reconnection sites. We utilized the high resolution global MHD code BATSRUS and incorporate primary mechanism controlling the dissipation in the vicinity of reconnection sites in terms of kinetic corrections to induction and energy equations. One of the key elements of the multiscale modeling of magnetic reconnection is identification of reconnection sites and boundaries of surrounding diffusion regions where non-MHD corrections are required. Reconnection site search in the equatorial plane implemented in our previous studies is extended to cusp and magnetopause reconnection, as well as for magnetotail reconnection in realistic asymmetric configurations. The role of feedback between the non-ideal effects in diffusion regions and global magnetosphere structure and dynamics will be discussed.

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗

Development of the tangent linear and adjoint models of the global online chemical transport model MPAS-CO 2 v7.3

We describe the development of the tangent linear (TL) and adjoint models of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-CO 2 transport model, which is a global online chemical transport model developed upon the non-hydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A). The primary goal is to make the model system a valuable research tool for investigating atmospheric carbon transport and inverse modeling. First, we develop the TL code, encompassing all CO 2 transport processes within the MPAS-CO 2 forward model. Then, we construct the adjoint model using a combined strategy involving re-calculation and storage of the essential meteorological variables needed for CO 2 transport. This strategy allows the adjoint model to undertake a long-period integration with moderate memory demands. To ensure accuracy, the TL and adjoint models undergo vigorous verifications through a series of standard tests. The adjoint model, through backward-in-time integration, calculates the sensitivity of atmospheric CO 2 observations to surface CO 2 fluxes and the initial atmospheric CO 2 mixing ratio. To demonstrate the utility of the newly developed adjoint model, we conduct simulations for two types of atmospheric CO 2 observations, namely the tower-based in situ CO 2 mixing ratio and satellite-derived column-averaged CO 2 mixing ratio (X CO 2 ). A comparison between the sensitivity to surface flux calculated by the MPAS-CO 2 adjoint model with its counterpart from CarbonTracker–Lagrange (CT-L) reveals a spatial agreement but notable magnitude differences. These differences, particularly evident for X CO 2 , might be attributed to the two model systems' differences in the simulation configuration, spatial resolution, and treatment of vertical mixing processes. Moreover, this comparison highlights the substantial loss of information in the atmospheric CO 2 observations due to CT-L's spatial domain limitation. Furthermore, the adjoint sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the sensitivities to both surface flux and initial CO 2 conditions spread out throughout the entire Northern Hemisphere within a month. MPAS-CO 2 forward, TL, and adjoint models stand out for their calculation efficiency and variable-resolution capability, making them competitive in computational cost. In conclusion, the successful development of the MPAS-CO 2 TL and adjoint models, and their integration into the MPAS-CO 2 system, establish the possibility of using MPAS's unique features in atmospheric CO 2 transport sensitivity studies and in inverse modeling with advanced methods such as variational data assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global MHD model of the earth's magnetosphere

A global MHD model of the earth's magnetosphere is defined. An introduction to numerical methods for solving the MHD equations is given with emphasis on the shock-capturing technique. Finally, results concerning the shape of the magnetosphere and the plasma flows inside the magnetosphere are presented.

Wu, C. C.↗

Application of the AI2 Climate Emulator to E3SMv2's Global Atmosphere Model, With a Focus on Precipitation Fidelity

Abstract Can the current successes of global machine learning‐based weather simulators be generalized beyond 2‐week forecasts to stable and accurate multiyear runs? The recently developed AI2 Climate Emulator (ACE) suggests this is feasible, based upon 10‐year simulations with a network trained on output from a physics‐based global atmosphere model using a grid spacing of approximately 110 km and forced by a repeating annual cycle of sea‐surface temperature. Here we show that ACE, without modification, can be trained to emulate another major atmospheric model, EAMv2, run at a comparable grid spacing for at least 10 years with similarly small climate biases—a prerequisite to wider applicability. With an analysis that combines multiple temporal, spatial, and frequency domain perspectives, we show that ACE faithfully represents the spatiotemporal structure of EAMv2 precipitation and related variables. Finally, we show that a pretrained ACE network is able to adapt to a new global climate model simulation data set with 10 fewer training steps than when starting from random initialization, all while still maintaining low levels of climate bias. Further analysis of these fine‐tuning experiments reveal ACE's intriguing ability to interpolate between distinct global climate models.

Duncan, James P. C.↗

Near real-time air quality forecasts using the NASA GEOS model

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) produces high-resolution global forecasts for weather, aerosols, and air quality. The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Satellite observations are assimilated into the system for improved representation of weather and smoke. The assimilation system is being expanded to include chemically reactive trace gases. We discuss current capabilities of the GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) to improve atmospheric composition modeling and possible future directions, notably incorporating new observations (TROPOMI, geostationary satellites) and machine learning techniques. We show how machine learning techniques can be used to correct for sub-grid-scale variability, which further improves model estimates at a given observation site.

Air Quality Forecast↗

Near Real-time Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) produces high-resolution global forecasts for weather, aerosols, and air quality. The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Future developments for the next GEOS-CF version will be discussed, including the assimilation system is being expanded to include chemically reactive trace gases, specifically using the capabilities of the GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS).

CoDAS↗

Technique for assessing vegetation-induced moisture flux, with implications for global climate modeling

The time between storms, the duration of storms, and the storm depths are studied in relation to vegetation controls on the disposition of rainfall. It is proposed that understanding the movement of water between the vegetation and soil (including evapotranspiration and infiltration) will be the gateway for modeling atmospheric flux and improving global climate models. The overall objective goal of the proposed research effort is to develop a field/lab methodology which will provide a better understanding of vegetation induced water movement. Water flow initiated from stem flow of wooded slopes feeds soil water pathways, which in turn feed the deeper ground water system and give rise to stream response. This is balanced by more water inputs via throughfall, where it percolates the soil matrix and allows much greater rates of evapotranspiration and atmospheric/soil moisture flux. This research study seeks to gain an understanding of the effect of vegetation on soil moisture, and the effect of this differential wetting on resulting evapotranspiration and atmospheric flux.

Macari, Emir Jose↗