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At least 307 records · Page 17

Postclosure assessment modelling of a deep geologic repository for low and intermediate level radioactive waste in Ontario, Canada - 15145

In 2011, Ontario Power Generation (OPG) submitted an Environmental Impact Statement and a Preliminary Safety Report (PSR) to the federal authorities in Canada to support an application for a site preparation and construction licence for a Deep Geologic Repository (DGR) for low and intermediate level radioactive waste (L and ILW). The DGR, which is proposed to be located close to the existing Western Waste Management Facility (WWMF) at the Bruce nuclear site, would receive L and ILW arising from the operation and refurbishment of OPG's nuclear reactors; the wastes are currently stored safely at the WWMF. The PSR is supported by postclosure safety assessment modelling, including a total-systems level model implemented in the AMBER compartment modelling software that draws directly on detailed groundwater and coupled groundwater and gas modelling using the FRA3DVS-OPG and TOUGH2 codes. A full suite of calculation cases is managed within a single AMBER model, which aided efficient management of the calculation files and quality assurance. Assessment of expected/normal evolution cases results in maximum calculated effective doses to humans that are more than five orders of magnitude below associated criteria. Assessment of conservative disruptive and 'what if' scenarios results in maximum calculated doses that are higher than those for the normal evolution cases, but which, when the low likelihood of occurrence is taken into account, remain significantly below the associated risk criterion. The assessment demonstrates that deep geologic repositories can provide a safe disposal option and provides an example of evaluating the safety of projects on long time scales. It shows how results from detailed groundwater and gas codes can be incorporated into assessment-level codes such as AMBER, thereby providing a single systems model that can be used to efficiently evaluate a wide range of scenarios and associated calculation cases. (authors)

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Alabama Carbon Storage: Bringing Data to the People

The Gulf Coastal Plain of Alabama has proven potential for geologic carbon storage and current interest in the area for large carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects is high. Extensive CCS relevant data exist in the records of the Geological Survey of Alabama and State Oil and Gas Board of Alabama, however, most of this data is not publicly available or is scattered in separate databases, file cabinets, and tables in publications. The “Alabama Carbon Storage: Data Sharing and Engagement” (ACS-DSE) project seeks to accelerate the responsible development of large CCS projects in the Gulf Coastal Plain of Alabama and offshore in state waters through a publicly accessible database of geologic carbon storage models and data across the region. The ACS-DSE draws on the over 150 years of geologic research and over 20 years of experience in CCS research to place relevant geologic, geophysical, and infrastructure data on a single web platform. Datasets available will include formation depths and elevations, geologic structures, reservoir properties, digital well logs (LAS files), existing penetrations, and geologic models. In addition to downloadable datasets, links to CCS related regulatory agencies and other sources of information will be included (for example, Class VI UIC permitting regulations and pipeline regulations). By making these datasets and models available in commonly used formats on a public website, the project will increase transparency in decision making and decrease the data acquisition time for industry.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Data Format and Descriptions for the Alabama Carbon Storage: Data Sharing and Engagement Project

The Alabama Carbon Storage: Data Sharing and Engagement (ACS-DSE) project seeks to develop publicly accessible geologic carbon storage models and data across the southern Gulf Coastal Plain of Alabama. The public online platform developed for this project will include geologic, geophysical, infrastructure, and other relevant datasets and geologic models of the study area. Datasets, model surfaces (e.g. structural contour maps, isolith maps, porosity maps), and infrastructure data (e.g. offshore pipelines, field boundaries) will be downloadable in commonly used file formats. The anticipated primary geologic datasets are well headers, formation tops, average reservoir properties, and core analyses; these will be available as commaseparated values (CSV) text files and MS Excel workbooks. Geophysical logs will be available in Log ASCII Standard (LAS) file format. Modeled surfaces, such as structure contour maps, will be available in ArcGIS formats and text files. Infrastructure data will be available as ArcGIS shapefiles. This document provides information on the data sources and attributes of the datasets.

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A new multi-model absolute difference-based sensitivity (MMADS) analysis method to screen non-influential processes under process model and parametric uncertainty

Process-based models have been widely used for hydrologic modeling, and it is a common practice to use sensitivity analysis methods for excluding non-influential hydrologic processes from further investigation and/or model improvement. This study develops a new method called multi-model absolute difference-based sensitivity (MMADS) analysis method to screen non-influential system processes and parameters. MMADS is conceptually similar to the Morris method for addressing parametric uncertainty, but has a unique feature to address both process model uncertainty (i.e., a process may be represented by multiple process models) and process model parameter uncertainty (i.e., parameters associated with a process model are random). MMADS first evaluates absolute differences of a quantity of interest (i.e., a system model output) by varying process models and/or process model parameter values, and then calculates the mean and variance of the differences for investigating process influence. The mean measures overall influence of the process on the quantity of interest, and the variance estimates influence of nonlinear effects of the process and/or its interactions with other processes. MMADS is an extension of the Morris method from a parameter space to a joint parameter-model space for explicitly addressing both process model uncertainty and model parameter uncertainty. The performance of MMADS is evaluated by using two numerical experiments. One experiment is based on Sobol’s G*-function with ten product elements, and has analytical solutions of the MMADS mean and variance of absolute differences. The other experiment is for groundwater flow modeling which considers three processes (i.e., recharge, geology, and snowmelt) that interact with each other. Finally, results indicate that MMADS is computationally efficient and can identify non-influential processes of complex hydrological systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Quantitative CO 2 Subsurface Monitoring: Rock Physics for CO 2 Storage and CO 2 EOR

Paper presented at 16th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-16), October 23–27, 2022, Lyon, France. Rock physics is key to understanding the feasibility of monitoring and the actual monitoring of the location and volume of CO 2 in the subsurface. Examples from the Broom Creek Formation of the Williston Basin in North Dakota and the Muddy Formation of the Powder River Basin in Montana and Wyoming are used to show the effect of geology and injection of CO 2 on the velocity and density of reservoir rocks.

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Permitting A Coal-Fired 4-MMt/yr CCS Project in North Dakota, USA

Paper presented at 16th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-16), October 23–27, 2022, Lyon, France. As part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE Program, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with Minnkota Power Cooperative, Inc. (Minnkota), conducted commercial-scale site characterization and permitting of two deep saline formations for the geologic storage of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. Captured as part of Minnkota’s Tundra SGS (secure geologic storage) project, these storage horizons would collectively and permanently store an annual average of 4 million metric tons (MMt) of CO 2 .

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Central Plateau Vadose Zone Geoframework

The objective of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to document the revision of the three dimensional (3D) geoframework model (GFM) of the Central Plateau Vadose Zone (CPVZ) on the Hanford Site. CP-60925, Model Package Report: Central Plateau Vadose Zone Geoframework, documents the original version of the CPVZGFM (herein after called the CPVZ-Rev.0) and is the underlying basis for the CPVZ conceptual model. The CPVZ GFM provides a more detailed interpretation of the vadose zone hydrostratigraphic units (HSUs) in the Central Plateau area of the greater Hanford South geoframework model (HSGFM) (ECF-HANFORD-13-0029, Development of the Hanford South Geologic Framework Model, Hanford Site, Washington). The development of the CPVZ GFM provides a consistent vadose zone geologic framework that is needed to support the 3D, multiple-waste-site modeling approach proposed in CP-60405, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Vadose Zone, while incorporating an appropriate level of geologic data and interpretations for the size of the model using current site-standard HSUs. Future more detailed site-specific investigations within the Central Plateau can then use the CPVZ GFM as a starting point instead of the larger scale HSGFM. This GFM was developed using the site standard and approved for use IHS Kingdom software. This ECF is a revision to the original model described in CP-60925, but the underlying assumptions and conceptual model are unchanged. Therefore, this revision is a new calculation of version 1.0 of the CPVZ GFM and not a new version of the GFM. Throughout this report, the original model documented in CP-60925 is called CPVZ-Rev.0and the calculation for this revision of the model is called CPVZ-Rev.1.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

CarbonSAFE North Dakota – Early Successes

Conference presentation for American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE) Annual Meeting, Boston, MA and virtual, November 5–11 and 15–19, 2021. As part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) CarbonSAFE program, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) is conducting commercial-scale site characterization and permitting of up to two geologic horizons for the geologic storage of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. These storage horizons would collectively and permanently store nearly 4 million metric tons (MMt) of CO2 per year captured as part of Minnkota Power Cooperative’s (Minnkota’s) Project Tundra. Minnkota’s ambitious initiative to build the world’s largest postcombustion carbon capture and storage facility in central North Dakota demonstrates the existence of a business case for carbon capture, and storage (CCS).

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Modeling of time-lapse seismic monitoring using CO 2 leakage simulations for a model CO 2 storage site with realistic geology: Application in assessment of early leak-detection capabilities

Time-lapse surface seismic surveys have been widely used at carbon sequestration sites for site characterization, monitoring subsurface CO 2 plume migration, and detecting potential CO 2 leakage from a storage reservoir. Monitoring in the first permeable unit directly above the primary seal is important for early detection of CO 2 leakage. Forward modeling of time-lapse seismic data can be used to assess the utility of the seismic method for CO 2 leakage detection. We develop a workflow for forward modeling of time-lapse seismic data, including constructing seismic velocity models using flow simulation outputs, modeling of pre-stack and post-stack synthetic seismic data following seismic data processing sequence and analysis of processed synthetic time-lapse seismic data. We apply the forward modeling and analysis workflow to assessing the detectability and the earliest detection time of seismic monitoring using the hypothetical CO 2 leakage scenarios for a model geologic storage site with realistic geology. We then derive the detection thresholds using the simulated normalized root-mean-square (NRMS) differences for the no-leakage case at a range of signal-to-noise ratios, representing the background noise levels in seismic data. We then compare NRMS differences triggered by the CO 2 leakage to the detection thresholds at each time step to quantify the detectability and the earliest detection time of seismic monitoring. We analyze the effects of the acquisition parameters and elastic parameters on the produced synthetic seismic data and earliest detection time. Our modeling results indicate that high signal-to-noise ratio is needed to detect the CO 2 leakage at the model site. Minimizing the background noise in seismic data is crucial for improving the detectability of the seismic method. Increasing the shot density or increasing the dominant frequency of the source wavelet is likely to increase the possibility of the leakage detection and reduce the time needed for the detection. The elastic parameters used in the rock physics modeling have significant effects on the resultant seismic velocity models and synthetic seismic data, highlighting their critical roles in understanding and interpreting time-lapse seismic reflection data associated with CO 2 monitoring, verification and accounting activities.

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Permitting Commercial Geologic CO 2 Storage Projects

Conference presentation at 2023 Rocky Mountain Section-American Association of Petroleum Geologists (RMS-AAPG) Annual Meeting, Bismarck, ND, June 4–6, 2023. Successful Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) projects depend on clear and applicable regulatory requirements that are thoroughly understood by project developers. It is evident that states are best positioned to regulate CO 2 storage through comprehensive regulations and permitting efficiencies. Further, tax incentives and an emphasis on low-carbon fuels compound to make CCUS more attractive to investors and states alike.

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Comprehensive Evaluation of the Geothermal Resource Potential within the Pyramid Lake Paiute Reservation Phase III Report

This project integrated state-of-the-art exploration technologies with a geologic framework and reservoir modeling to ultimately determine the efficacy of future geothermal production within the PLPT reservation. The information gained during this study should help the PLPT to make informed decisions regarding construction of a geothermal power plant. Additional benefits included the transfer of new technologies and geothermal data to the geothermal industry and it created and/or preserved nearly three dozen jobs accordance with the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. A variety of tasks were conducted to achieve the above stated objectives. The following are the tasks completed within the project: 1. Permitting 2. Shallow temperature survey 3. Seismic data collection and analysis 4. Fracture stress analysis 5. Phase I reporting Permitting 7. Shallow temperature survey 8. Seismic data collection and analysis 9. Fracture stress analysis 10. Phase I reporting 11. Drilling two new wells 12. Borehole geophysics 13. Phase II reporting 14. Well testing and geochemical analysis 15. Three-dimensional geologic model 16. Three-dimensional reservoir analysis 17. Reservation wide geothermal potential analysis 18. Phase III reporting Phase I consisted of tasks 1 – 5, Phase II tasks 6 – 8, and Phase III tasks 9 – 13. This report details the results of Phase III tasks. Reports are available for Phase I, and II as separate documents.

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2D Seismic Surveys as an Alternative for CO 2 Monitoring in the North Dakota CarbonSAFE Project

Conference presentation for International Meeting for Applied Geoscience & Energy (IMAGE), Houston, TX, August 28 – September 1, 2023. As part of the North Dakota CarbonSAFE project, seismic, controlled-source electromagnetic, and microgravity baseline monitoring surveys were collected to assess the safe, permanent, commercial-scale geologic storage of CO 2 generated by the Milton R. Young coal-fired power plant. Data from five 2D seismic lines were assessed as an alternative to 3D seismic for CO 2 monitoring. 2D and 3D surveys were compared using wave equation-based (WEB)-AVO inversion. The encouraging WEB-AVO results demonstrated that 2D surveys could be included in CO 2 monitoring programs as a cost-effective method.

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Model Comparison and Uncertainty Quantification for Geologic Carbon Storage. The Sim-SEQ Initiative

Sim-SEQ is a model comparison initiative for geologic carbon storage (GCS). In Sim-SEQ, fifteen different modeling teams are developing conceptual models for flow and transport of an injected CO 2 plume at the Sim-SEQ study site (or the S-3 site) located near Cranfield, Mississippi. The objective of the project is to understand the sources of model uncertainty in GCS, and if possible, to quantify these uncertainties through comparison of the different conceptual models and also through comparison with observed data from the S-3 site. In this paper, we compare six different conceptual models of the S-3 site, and present a preliminary uncertainty analysis of these six models using a generalized linear model approach. We show that differences in model conceptualization and interpretation of site characterization data caus a significant range in predictions.

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Using Multiple Geophysical Methods to Refine a Stratigraphic Conceptual Site Model at a Nuclear Waste Site

At contaminated sites, there is a critical reliance on conceptual site models of which a key component is the geologic framework model (GFM), which is used to build predictive fate and transport modeling in support of remediation goals. Here, we detail an ongoing study at a nuclear waste site (Hanford Site, Washington, USA) where surface geophysical methods were used to complement existing borehole information and to help site new boreholes to update and refine the GFM. Ground-based electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), time-domain electromagnetics (TEM), and seismic data was acquired on the Hanford Site’s Central Plateau, where the presence of a hydraulically transmissive subsurface feature, or paleochannel, was suspected but uncertain based on contaminant concentrations at sparsely located boreholes. To assess and compare ERT, TEM, and seismic geophysical datasets, co-located data was acquired in an area where the existing GFM was more certain. Surrounding the suspected paleochannel, ERT and seismic refraction tomography showed similar subsurface structures consistent with a channelized feature. While TEM interpretation was limited in the suspected paleochannel area due to a thick resistive top layer and high electromagnetic noise, TEM showed greater utility in a different area where these factors were less prevalent. Based on the results of quasi-3D ERT inversions, we propose updates to the GFM, including identifying a paleochannel. Further, we evaluate the utility of geophysical methods and examine lessons learned that will be used as a basis for continued characterization efforts to support site management decisions and implementation efforts.

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Simultaneous use of LANDSAT digital data with that of geophysical and geological surveys in geomathematical modelling for mineral exploration prediction

The author has identified the following significant results. A computer test file was created for the analysis of two rows in the pilot area. Data were organized into two groups with and without radioactivity above 1200 counts. The first 42 samples corresponded to the geographic cells which were anomalous, and the rest of the samples (70) were without anomalous values. Output analysis shows that all samples were properly classified.

Missallati, A. A.↗