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DOE OSTI2023

ML-Based Power System Stability Assessment Considering Network Topology Changes: WECC 20,000+ Bus System Case Study

Modern power grids are fast-changing and thus require real-time monitoring and online stability assessment. With the rapid development of machine learning (ML) techniques, using data-driven models to provide fast and accurate estimations of power system stability marginal information, such as frequency nadir for frequency stability and critical clearing time (CCT) for transient stability, have become possible. However, despite the numerous research on ML-based methods for frequency nadir and CCT prediction, there is limited work on the impact of different network topology changes. Furthermore, most previous studies only focused on small or synthetic systems, and there is a lack of research on actual large power system models. In this paper, the above issues are addressed by studying the actual U.S. Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system model with more than 20,000 buses. Massive simulations are conducted in PowerWorld Simulator to study the impact of various topology change scenarios on both frequency stability and transient stability. System operating information is extracted from the success dispatch cases of various network topologies to generate a comprehensive dataset for ML-based models. Two ML methods, random forest (RF) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network, are trained and tested for both frequency nadir prediction and CCT prediction. Test results have proven the models are capable of online stability assessment for large power networks such as the WECC system with sufficient accuracy.

critical clearing time↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamically Collected Local Density using Low-Cost Lidar and its Application to Traffic Models

This article demonstrates the use of traffic density observations collected dynamically in the vicinity of probe vehicles. Fixed position sensors cannot capture the longitudinal evolution of local traffic density in the corridor. In this research, dynamic traffic density observations were collected in a naturalistic driving setting that was free of any controlled experiment biases. Speed from global positioning system and space headway from a light detection and ranging module was collected on one arterial and one freeway segment, 2 and 4mi long, respectively. The combined data frequency was approximately 3Hz. Space headway was used to estimate the local density and consequently to identify the density of a specific location in a corridor. Besides, driver behavior was characterized using the relationship between instantaneous speed and local density under different regimes of the Wiedemann car-following model. Macroscopic traffic stream models were used to investigate the relationship between dynamically collected instantaneous speed and local density. Using the longitudinal evolution of density, precise local density across the corridor can be obtained along with the leader and follower trajectories. A method to identify driver behavior across density ranges was developed for different facility types using a microscopic relationship between instantaneous speed and local density. Overall driving behavior on the freeway segment can be represented by translating the instantaneous speed and local density relationship to macroscopic stream models.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensors with Intelligent Measurement Platform and Low-cost Equipment (SIMPLE) for Monitoring and Control of Medium Voltage Distribution Systems with High Penetration of Intermittent Distributed Energy Resources

The primary focus of the SIMPLE project was to develop, commission, test and introduce intelligent voltage and current sensor platform with enhanced characteristics (accuracy, bandwidth and harmonic range) and high measurement granularity for medium voltage distribution system monitoring, protection and control. The enhancements incorporated existing (commercially available) sensors and made them suitable for applications such as voltage regulation, frequency support, fault detection and location, distribution system state estimation, power quality measurements and electrical distribution network topology processing. The development of the intelligent sensor platform was driven by the need for high-fidelity monitoring and control of medium voltage distribution feeder to enable higher penetration of renewable resources and microgrid operation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Galactic non-Gaussian foregrounds on CMB lensing measurements

Weak gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) has been established as a robust and powerful observable for precision cosmology. However, the impact of Galactic foregrounds, which has been studied less extensively than many other potential systematics, could in principle pose a problem for CMB lensing measurements. These foregrounds are inherently non-Gaussian and hence might mimic the characteristic signal that lensing estimators are designed to measure. We present an analysis that quantifies the level of contamination from Galactic dust in lensing measurements, focusing particularly on measurements with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and the Simons Observatory. We employ a whole suite of foreground models and study the contamination of lensing measurements with both individual frequency channels and multifrequency combinations. We test the sensitivity of different estimators to the level of foreground non-Gaussianity and the dependence on sky fraction and multipole range used. We find that Galactic foregrounds do not present a problem for the Atacama Cosmology Telescope experiment (the bias in the inferred CMB lensing power spectrum amplitude remains below 0.3σ). For Simons Observatory, not all foreground models remain below this threshold. Although our results are conservative upper limits, they suggest that further work on characterizing dust biases and determining the impact of mitigation methods is well motivated, especially for the largest sky fractions.

cosmic microwave background↗

DOE OSTI2023

BeyondPlanck: VII. Bayesian estimation of gain and absolute calibration for cosmic microwave background experiments

We present a Bayesian calibration algorithm for cosmic microwave background (CMB) observations as implemented within the global end-to-end BEYONDPLANCK framework and applied to the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) data. Following the most recent Planck analysis, we decomposed the full time-dependent gain into a sum of three nearly orthogonal components: one absolute calibration term, common to all detectors, one time-independent term that can vary between detectors, and one time-dependent component that was allowed to vary between one-hour pointing periods. Each term was then sampled conditionally on all other parameters in the global signal model through Gibbs sampling. The absolute calibration is sampled using only the orbital dipole as a reference source, while the two relative gain components were sampled using the full sky signal, including the orbital and Solar CMB dipoles, CMB fluctuations, and foreground contributions. We discuss various aspects of the data that influence gain estimation, including the dipole-polarization quadrupole degeneracy and processing masks. Comparing our solution to previous pipelines, we find good agreement in general, with relative deviations of -0.67% (-0.84%) for 30 GHz, 0.12% (-0.04%) for 44 GHz and -0.03% (-0.64%) for 70 GHz, compared to Planck PR4 and Planck 2018, respectively. We note that the BEYONDPLANCK calibration was performed globally, which results in better inter-frequency consistency than previous estimates. Additionally, WMAP observations were used actively in the BEYONDPLANCK analysis, which both breaks internal degeneracies in the Planck data set and results in an overall better agreement with WMAP. Finally, we used a Wiener filtering approach to smoothing the gain estimates. We show that this method avoids artifacts in the correlated noise maps as a result of oversmoothing the gain solution, which is difficult to avoid with methods like boxcar smoothing, as Wiener filtering by construction maintains a balance between data fidelity and prior knowledge. Although our presentation and algorithm are currently oriented toward LFI processing, the general procedure is fully generalizable to other experiments, as long as the Solar dipole signal is available to be used for calibration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

MODFLOW6 models used to evaluate potential stresses and hydrologic conditions driving water-level fluctuations in well ER-5-3-2, Frenchman Flat, Southern Nevada

The hydrograph for well ER-5-3-2 in Frenchman Flat, southern Nevada, has previously unexplained water-level fluctuations. Four, three-dimensional, groundwater models (MODFLOW 6) were developed to evaluate potential stresses and hydrologic conditions affecting the well ER-5-3-2 hydrograph. Four model scenarios were developed that simulated: (1) wellbore leakage without recharge, (2) wellbore leakage with recharge, (3) shallow (low transmissivity) and deep (high transmissivity) carbonate rocks, and (4) lateral heterogeneity of carbonate rocks. Input and output files for the four model scenarios are in the model and output directories, respectively. Hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, and wellbore-leakage rates (when simulated) were estimated with parameter estimation (PEST) by minimizing a weighted composite, sum-of-squares objective function. The objective function was informed by measurement and Tikhonov regularization observations. Measurement observations included drawdowns from the constant-rate aquifer test and water-level altitudes measured in well ER-5-3-2 from 2001-2021. Tikhonov regularization informed hydraulic conductivity and specific storage parameters that were insensitive to measurement observations, where homogeneity was the preferred relation. Batch files, executables, and MODFLOW 6, PEST, and post-processing utilities are in the ancillary directory. Supplementary data also are included in the ancillary directory, including site information, high-frequency water-level and aquifer-test data, transmissivity estimates, water-chemistry data, and water-temperature analyses. This USGS data release contains data, analyses, and model files for the simulations and analysis results described in U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20225132).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Duration of super-emitting oil and gas methane sources

The duration of super-emitting events (>100 kg h -1 ) in oil and gas basins remains insufficiently understood but is key for reporting programs and mitigation strategies. Carbon Mapper conducted aerial surveys from April 30 to May 17, 2024, over the New Mexico Permian Basin, covering 276,000 wells, 1100 compressor stations, 175 gas processing plants, and 27,000 km of pipeline. We find over 500 super-emitting sources with 300 of these sources observed repeatedly across multiple days. We quantify total super emissions by integrating individual events with observationally constrained event durations (5.98 −14.7 Gg CH 4 ) and compare to total emissions derived from basin average snapshots (12.7 ± 0.92 Gg CH 4 ). This gap between emission estimates is reconciled through assumptions on missed detections, characteristic event duration, detection frequency, and diurnal variability. Emission events generally lasted for at least 2 hours, and a small subset of sources (18 total), persistently emitted throughout the entire campaign, representing a near-term opportunity for mitigation. When compared to regional flux estimates derived from independent observations, we estimate super-emitters to contribute approximately 50% (37-73%) towards total emissions. Frequent wide-area monitoring is crucial for capturing rare super-emitter events that, together with other emission sources, drive basin-level variability and emission intensity.

Cusworth, Daniel H. [Carbon Mapper, Pasadena, CA (↗

DOE OSTI2020

Anisotropic optical properties of detwinned BaFe 2 As 2

The optical properties of a large, detwinned single crystal of BaFe 2 As 2 have been examined over a wide frequency range above and below the structural and magnetic transition at T N ≃138 K. Above T N the real part of the optical conductivity and the two infrared-active lattice modes are almost completely isotropic; the lattice modes show a weak polarization dependence just above T N . For T < T N , the optical conductivity due to the free-carrier response is anisotropic, being larger along the a axis than the b axis below ≃ 30 meV; above this energy the optical conductivity is dominated by the interband contributions, which appear to be isotropic. Furthermore, the splitting of the low-energy infrared-active mode below T N is clearly observed, and the polarization modulation of the new modes may be used to estimate that the crystal is ≃ 70% detwinned. The high-frequency mode,with a threefold increase in strength of the lower branch below T N and nearly silent upper branch,remains enigmatic.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the Effects of Precipitation and Evapotranspiration on Soil Moisture Variability Within CMIP5 Using SMAP and ERA5 Data

=The effects of precipitation (Pr) and evapotranspiration (ET) on surface soil moisture (SSM) play an essential role in the land-atmosphere system. Here we evaluate multimodel differences of these effects within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) compared to Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) products and ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) as references in a frequency domain. The variability of SSM, Pr, and ET within three frequency bands (1/7 ~ 1/30 days -1 , 1/30 ~ 1/90 days -1 , and 1/90 ~ 1/365 days -1 ) after normalization is quantified using Fourier transform. We analyze the impact of ET and Pr on SSM variability based on a transfer function assuming that these variables form a linear time-invariant (LTI) system. For the total effects of ET and Pr on SSM variability, the CMIP5 estimations are smaller than the reference data in the two higher frequency bands and are larger than the reference data in the lowest frequency band. Besides, the effects on SSM by Pr and ET are found to be different across the three frequency bands. In each frequency band, the variability of the factor that dominates SSM (i.e., Pr or ET) from CMIP5 is smaller than that from the references. This study identifies the spatiotemporal distribution of differences between CMIP5 models and references (SMAP and ERA5) in simulating ET and Pr effects on SSM within three frequency bands. This study provides insightful information on how soil moisture variability is affected by varying precipitation and evapotranspiration at different time scales within Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Misclassification in Workers’ Telecommuting Frequency Choices Using a Generalized Extreme Value Model

Telecommuting frequency is a response variable collected in travel surveys and is, therefore, prone to errors leading to mismeasurements or misclassification. Misclassification of explanatory variables is a common risk when using statistical modeling techniques. We define “misclassification” as a response reported or recorded in the wrong category; for example, a variable is recorded as a 1 when it should be 0. Here, in this context, this study aims to develop a statistical model to analyze telecommuting data which accounts for potential misclassification errors by building on existing literature in econometrics. The empirical analysis was undertaken using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the general extreme value (GEV) models available in the literature. Specifically, the frequency of telecommuting days was analyzed using the negative binomial (NB) model recast as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. By nature—and consistent with other studies—NHTS data are prone to errors that can be classified as intentional or unintentional misinformation provided by the person being interviewed. Ignoring these errors while modeling telecommuting frequencies using standard discrete count models can result in biased parameter estimates. The misclassification parameter was calculated for both over-reporting and under-reporting scenarios. The misclassification errors can be as high as 14% over-reported and 10% under-reported, particularly for the neighboring values. Statistical fit comparison between the models shows that models that ignore misclassification have worse data fit and biased parameter estimates with significant policy implications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identification and localization of rotational spectra using recurrent neural networks

A method of identifying molecular parameters in a complex mixture may include receiving a set of combined transition frequencies and analyzing the set of combined transition frequencies using a first trained artificial neural network to generate a plurality of separated transition frequency sets. Each of the plurality of separated frequency sets may be analyzed using a second trained artificial neural network to generate a respective set of estimated spectral parameters. The method may include identifying a set of molecular parameters corresponding to the set of separated transition frequencies.

Prozuments, Kirills↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Method of Moments Wide Band Adaptive Rational Interpolation Method for High-Quality Factor Resonant Cavities

A new adaptive rational interpolation method is proposed to obtain the wideband frequency response of a resonant cavity simulated with the method of moments (MoM). This interpolation method uses both the Loewner matrix to construct a rational expression for the solution vector of MoM’s matrix system and an error estimator generated by the solution vectors and their derivatives. This error estimator is implemented in the adaptive procedure to gain a minimum set of frequencies and solution vectors required in the interpolation. The resulting set of frequencies and solution vectors is applied to interpolate other system variables, such as shielding effectiveness and input impedance. Here numerical results of a slotted cylindrical cavity supporting high-quality factor resonances are presented, showing that the new rational interpolation method is accurate and efficient in interpolating the complicated resonant response of the solution vector functions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Distributed Load Shedding Application Architecture and Bi-Level Predictive Estimator Algorithm

Increasing penetrations of distributed renewables are decreasing the effectiveness of traditional decentralized under-frequency load shedding (UFLS) schemes. As more distribution circuits begin to back-feed the transmission system, operation of traditional UFLS may exacerbate frequency instability. This paper presents the conceptual framework for a data-rich environment to coordinate UFLS across multiple distribution providers based on the laminar coordination framework in order to ensure optimal adaptive setting of UFLS relays. Communication and control are enabled through a distributed implementation of the IEC 61968-1 Common Information Model message bus structure. In addition to the proposed architecture, a novel adaptive UFLS scheme informed by a bi-level state estimator to create optimal relay setpoints is introduced. Initial simulation results are presented for the IEEE 14-bus test system on scenarios leading to mis-operation of traditional UFLS.

Anderson, Alexander A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

The estimation of Poisson’s ratio by time-averaging and Cornu’s method for isotropic beams

Prior research suggests that direct static (e.g., uniaxial testing) and dynamic (e.g., ultrasonic wave propagation analysis) measurements differ in the estimation of Poisson’s ratio because anisotropies and heterogeneities in the sample material affect the two types of tests differently. Even assuming isotropic and homogeneous material properties, prior research further suggests that discrepancies between static/dynamic test results will exist because the error of the diagnostic techniques for the measurand are inherently different. Finally, thermodynamic effects are not present in static tests but can significantly affect dynamic test results. Given the potential for all these variables to produce discrepancies, it would be helpful to have the measurement of Poisson’s ratio obtainable from the same theory and experimental measurements by either static or dynamic testing methods. Our finite element calculations show that by combining time-averaged scanning digital holography with Cornu’s method, it is theoretically possible to estimate the effective Poisson’s ratio from the anticlastic contours at the antinode of the first out-of-plane bending mode shape. This is true regardless of frequency and therefore applicable for both static and dynamic measurements. Our results show that the estimate of Poisson’s ratio by Cornu’s method using data from simulations of mode shapes approaches the true value of Poisson’s ratio. Additionally, our research suggests that beam geometry and boundary conditions are fundamental factors limiting the convergence of the estimate of Poisson’s ratio to the true value of Poisson’s ratio regardless of performing a static or dynamic test.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Remote Sensing Improves Multi‐Hazard Flooding and Extreme Heat Detection by Fivefold Over Current Estimates

The co‐occurrence of multiple hazards is of growing concern globally as the frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events increases. Despite studies examining the spatial distribution of such events, there has been little work in examining if all relevant life threatening and damaging hazards are captured in existing hazard databases and by common hazard metrics. For example, local/regional flash flooding events are seldom captured by optical satellite instruments and are subsequently excluded from global hazard databases. Similarly, the heat hazard definitions most frequently used in multi‐hazard studies inherently fail to capture events that are life‐threatening but climatologically within an expected range. Our goal is to determine the potential for increasing multi‐hazard event detection capabilities by inferring additional hazard footprints from widely accessible satellite data. We use daily precipitation and temperature satellite data to develop an open‐source framework that infers additional hazard footprints that are not included in traditional methods. With the state of Texas as our study area, we detected 2.5 times as many flood hazards, equivalent to $320 million in property and crop damages. Furthermore, our expanded heat hazard definition increases the impacted area by 56.6%, equivalent to 91.5 million km 2 over an 18 year period. Increasing hazard detection capabilities and expanding existing definitions of hazards using daily satellite data increases the temporal and spatial resolutions at which multi‐hazard events are detected. Having more complete data sets of all relevant hazard extents improves our ability to track global trends and more accurately determine the magnitude of hazard exposure inequities.

equity↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identification of High-Frequency Transverse Acoustic Modes in Multi-Nozzle Can Combustors

Abstract High frequency thermoacoustic instabilities are problematic for lean-premixed gas turbines. Identifying which acoustic mode is being excited is important, in that it provides insight into potential mitigation measures and mechanical stress/life. However, the frequency spacing between modes becomes quite close for high frequency instabilities in a can combustor. This makes it difficult to distinguish between the modes (e.g., the first transverse mode vs. a higher order axial/mixed mode) based upon frequency calculations alone, which inevitably have uncertainties in boundary conditions, temperature profiles, and combustion response. This paper presents a methodology to simultaneously identify the acoustic mode shapes in the axial and azimuthal directions from acoustic pressure measurements. Multiple high temperature pressure transducers, located at distinct axial and azimuthal positions, are flush mounted in the combustor wall. The measured pressure oscillations from each sensor are then used to reconstruct the pressure distributions by using a least squares method in conjunction with a solution of a three dimensional wave equation. In order to validate the methodology, finite element method (FEM) calculations with estimated post-flame temperature is used to provide the candidate frequencies and corresponding mode shapes. The results demonstrate the reconstructed mode shapes and standing/spinning character of transverse waves, as well as the associated frequencies, both of which are consistent with the FEM predictions. Nodal line location was also extracted from the experimental data during the instabilities in the pressure data.

Kim, J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dominant effect of anharmonicity on the equation of state and thermal conductivity of MgO under extreme conditions

Understanding heat transfer in the earth mantle region is of great scientific interest but highly challenging due to dissimilar conditions from our daily lives. Thermal conductivity of highly pressured and thermally activated materials can be completely different from that at ambient condition. In this study we calculate the equation of state and thermal conductivity of cubic crystalline MgO, a major component of the mantle, in such an environment. It is shown that the material properties are not accurately captured unless rigorous treatment of anharmonicity of phonon vibrational motion is explicitly applied. To predict renormalized phonon dispersion relations, interatomic force constants of high-order expansion are required, especially at elevated temperature. The anharmonicity plays an increasingly substantial role for regulating volume expansion as temperature rises, because the Gibbs free energy of MgO considerably deviates from what was predicted by the quasiharmonic approximation. We find that the lattice thermal conductivity of MgO and the heat transfer of the earth's mantle are reliably estimated only when both the temperature-dependent renormalization of phonon frequencies and four-phonon scattering effects are taken into consideration. We map the characteristics at Geotherm into contour diagrams in which equilibrium volumes and the thermal conductivities are described as functions of temperature and pressure. Furthermore, the thermal conductivity values of MgO in this study are smaller than those in previous theoretical studies due to the additional incorporation of four-phonon scatterings in the calculations. Specifically, deviation between the values in previous studies and in this study becomes larger as thermodynamic variables reach those near the core-mantle boundary. For instance, thermal conductivities of 52.15 and 23.67 Wm -1 K -1 are estimated at ambient and extreme conditions (T = 4000K and P = 135 GPa), respectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of crowding on the diversity of expanding populations

Crowding effects critically impact the self-organization of densely packed cellular assemblies, such as biofilms, solid tumors, and developing tissues. When cells grow and divide, they push each other apart, remodeling the structure and extent of the population’s range. Recent work has shown that crowding has a strong impact on the strength of natural selection. However, the impact of crowding on neutral processes, which controls the fate of new variants as long as they are rare, remains unclear. Here, we quantify the genetic diversity of expanding microbial colonies and uncover signatures of crowding in the site frequency spectrum. By combining Luria–Delbrück fluctuation tests, lineage tracing in a novel microfluidic incubator, cell-based simulations, and theoretical modeling, we find that the majority of mutations arise behind the expanding frontier, giving rise to clones that are mechanically “pushed out” of the growing region by the proliferating cells in front. These excluded-volume interactions result in a clone-size distribution that solely depends on where the mutation first arose relative to the front and is characterized by a simple power law for low-frequency clones. Our model predicts that the distribution depends on a single parameter—the characteristic growth layer thickness—and hence allows estimation of the mutation rate in a variety of crowded cellular populations. Combined with previous studies on high-frequency mutations, our finding provides a unified picture of the genetic diversity in expanding populations over the whole frequency range and suggests a practical method to assess growth dynamics by sequencing populations across spatial scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗