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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

miss-SNF: a multimodal patient similarity network integration approach to handle completely missing data sources

Abstract Motivation Precision medicine leverages patient-specific multimodal data to improve prevention, diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of diseases. Advancing precision medicine requires the non-trivial integration of complex, heterogeneous, and potentially high-dimensional data sources, such as multi-omics and clinical data. In the literature, several approaches have been proposed to manage missing data, but are usually limited to the recovery of subsets of features for a subset of patients. A largely overlooked problem is the integration of multiple sources of data when one or more of them are completely missing for a subset of patients, a relatively common condition in clinical practice. Results We propose miss-Similarity Network Fusion (miss-SNF), a novel general-purpose data integration approach designed to manage completely missing data in the context of patient similarity networks. miss-SNF integrates incomplete unimodal patient similarity networks by leveraging a non-linear message-passing strategy borrowed from the SNF algorithm. miss-SNF is able to recover missing patient similarities and is “task agnostic”, in the sense that can integrate partial data for both unsupervised and supervised prediction tasks. Experimental analyses on nine cancer datasets from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) demonstrate that miss-SNF achieves state-of-the-art results in recovering similarities and in identifying patients subgroups enriched in clinically relevant variables and having differential survival. Moreover, amputation experiments show that miss-SNF supervised prediction of cancer clinical outcomes and Alzheimer’s disease diagnosis with completely missing data achieves results comparable to those obtained when all the data are available. Availability and implementation miss-SNF code, implemented in R, is available at https://github.com/AnacletoLAB/missSNF.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Influence of Residual Stress on Fatigue Crack Growth Rates in Stainless Steel Processed by Different Additive Manufacturing Methods

The properties and microstructure of Type 304L stainless steel produced by two additive manufacturing (AM) methods—directed energy deposition (DED) and powder bed fusion (PBF)—are evaluated and compared. Localized heating and steep temperature gradients of AM processes lead to significant residual stress and distinctive microstructures, which may be process-specific and influence mechanical behavior. Test data show that materials produced by DED and PDF have small differences in tensile strengths but clear differences in residual stress and microstructural features. Measured fatigue crack growth rates (FCGRs) for cracks propagating parallel to and perpendicular to the build directions differ between the two AM materials. To separate the influences of residual stress and microstructure, K-control test procedures with decreasing and constant stress intensity factor ranges are used to measure FCGRs in the near-threshold regime (crack growth rates ≤ 1 × 10 −8 m/cycle). Residual stress is quantified by the residual stress intensity factor, K res , measured by the online crack compliance method. Correcting the FCGR data for differences in K res brings results for specimens of the two AM materials into agreement with each other and with results for wrought specimens, when the latter are corrected for crack closure. Differences in microstructure and tensile strength have an insignificant influence on FCGRs in these tests.

additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2024

A fully implicit, asymptotic-preserving, semi-Lagrangian algorithm for the time dependent anisotropic heat transport equation

In this paper, we extend the operator-split asymptotic-preserving, semi-Lagrangian algorithm for time dependent anisotropic heat transport equation proposed in Chacón et al. (2014) [18] to use a fully implicit time integration with backward differentiation formulas. The proposed implicit method can deal with arbitrary heat-transport anisotropy ratios $\mathcal{X}$∥ /$ \mathcal{X}$⟂ $\ggg$ 1 (with $\mathcal{X}$∥, $ \mathcal{X}$⟂ the parallel and perpendicular heat diffusivities, respectively) in complicated magnetic field topologies in an accurate and efficient manner. Further, the implicit algorithm is second-order accurate temporally and demonstrates an accurate treatment at boundary layers (e.g., island separatrices), which was not ensured by the operator-split implementation. The condition number of the resulting algebraic system is independent of the anisotropy ratio, and is inverted with preconditioned GMRES. We propose a simple preconditioner that renders the finite-dimensional linear operator compact, resulting in mesh-independent convergence rates for topologically simple magnetic fields, and convergence rates scaling as ~ (NΔt) 1/4 (with N the total mesh size and Δt the timestep) in topologically complex magnetic-field configurations. We demonstrate the accuracy and performance of the approach with test problems of varying complexity, including an analytically tractable boundary-layer problem in a straight magnetic field, and a topologically complex magnetic field featuring magnetic islands with extreme anisotropy ratios $\mathcal{X}$∥ /$ \mathcal{X}$⟂ = 10 10 ) .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Sensitivity of ICF Outputs to Design Parameters in Experiments Using Machine Learning

We report building a sustainable burn platform in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) requires an understanding of the complex coupling of physical processes and the effects that key experimental design changes have on implosion performance. While simulation codes are used to model ICF implosions, incomplete physics and the need for approximations deteriorate their predictive capability. Identification of relationships between controllable design inputs and measurable outcomes can help guide the future design of experiments and development of simulation codes, which can potentially improve the accuracy of the computational models used to simulate ICF implosions. In this article, we leverage developments in machine learning (ML) and methods for ML feature importance/sensitivity analysis to identify complex relationships in ways that are difficult to process using expert judgment alone. We present work using random forest (RF) regression for prediction of yield, velocity, and other experimental outcomes given a suite of design parameters, along with an assessment of important relationships and uncertainties in the prediction model. We show that RF models are capable of learning and predicting on ICF experimental data with high accuracy, and we extract feature importance metrics that provide insight into the physical significance of different controllable design inputs for various ICF design configurations. These results can be used to augment expert intuition and simulation results for optimal design of future ICF experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Temperature-dependent model of helium bubble expansion and bursting in tungsten

Continuum-scale models that can reliably predict the behavior of helium in tungsten are of interest to the fusion community due to the projected impact of these materials on fusion reactor operation. In this work, we perform molecular dynamics simulations of spherical helium bubbles of various sizes in tungsten at different temperatures and depths with the goal of determining a mathematical model of the pressure and density at which the bubbles initially expand or burst as a function of depth, size, temperature, and surface orientation. The bubbles are small enough that their loop-punching pressures cannot be accurately predicted with continuum mechanics, and their expansion behavior is important, as it appears to cause many of the features observed on helium-irradiated tungsten surfaces. We vary the temperature, bubble size, bubble depth, and surface orientation in each case, recording the bubble pressure and density that result in bubble expansion. An exponential function with three adjustable parameters is found to fit the results well; the parameters that best fit our results are provided.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model fusion with physics-guided machine learning: Projection-based reduced-order modeling

The unprecedented amount of data generated from experiments, field observations, and large-scale numerical simulations at a wide range of spatiotemporal scales has enabled the rapid advancement of data-driven and especially deep learning models in the field of fluid mechanics. Although these methods are proven successful for many applications, there is a grand challenge of improving their generalizability. This is particularly essential when data-driven models are employed within outer-loop applications like optimization. In this work, we put forth a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) framework that leverages the interpretable physics-based model with a deep learning model. Leveraging a concatenated neural network design from multi-modal data sources, the PGML framework is capable of enhancing the generalizability of data-driven models and effectively protects against or inform about the inaccurate predictions resulting from extrapolation. We apply the PGML framework as a novel model fusion approach combining the physics-based Galerkin projection model and long- to short-term memory (LSTM) network for parametric model order reduction of fluid flows. We demonstrate the improved generalizability of the PGML framework against a purely data-driven approach through the injection of physics features into intermediate LSTM layers. Our quantitative analysis shows that the overall model uncertainty can be reduced through the PGML approach, especially for test data coming from a distribution different than the training data. Moreover, we demonstrate that our approach can be used as an inverse diagnostic tool providing a confidence score associated with models and observations. The proposed framework also allows for multi-fidelity computing by making use of low-fidelity models in the online deployment of quantified data-driven models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global ion heating/transport during merging spherical tokamak formation

Here we report global ion heating/transport characteristics of magnetic reconnection during merging spherical tokamak formation experiment on TS-6 (TS-3U). Using the 96CH/320CH ultra high resolution ion Doppler tomography diagnostics, the full- 2 D imaging measurement clearly revealed that magnetic reconnection initially forms localized hot spots in the downstream region of outflow jet with inboard/outboard asymmetry (more deposition in the high field side) but the continuous accumulation of the heating coupled with transport process expands the high temperature region globally and forms characteristic poloidally ring-like structure aligned with field lines. The dynamic ion heating/transport process is also affected by the polarity of toroidal field and poloidally tilted/rotating global structure has experimentally been found both during and after merging. The characteristic poloidal asymmetry gets flipped when toroidal field direction is reversed and it was found that higher temperature appears in the positive potential side, which is opposite to the conventional understanding/prediction of guide field reconnection. Through the parallel acceleration process coupled with global heat transport, poloidally asymmetric non-classical feature has experimentally been found for the first time.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

On FIRE mode in KSTAR

We report on the status of Fast Ion Regulated Enhancement (FIRE) mode experiments in the Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research. This regime is being developed for high-performance, steady-state operation which features a stationary ion internal transport barrier, enabling a central ion temperature approaching 10 keV to be sustained for up to 50 s, without the need for delicate profile control and with no significant impurity accumulation. As its key novelty lies in the significant contribution of fast ions that stabilize core turbulence, the regime has been named FIRE mode. To achieve this regime, neutral beam injection is applied at moderate power levels near the L–H power threshold, while maintaining low plasma density to avoid the L–H transition. The scenario is typically established in diverted magnetic configurations. The core features of FIRE mode were investigated through power balance analysis and fluctuation measurements, revealing a clear transport bifurcation in the ion channel. At the plasma edge, FIRE mode occasionally exhibits I-mode characteristics, particularly in unfavorable magnetic null configurations with q 95 ∼ 4, including the presence of weakly coherent modes. In terms of MHD activity, sawtooth oscillations are observed but appear to be stabilized during the high-performance phase. Fast ion-driven Alfvénic eigenmodes (AEs), indicated by strong frequency chirping near 200 kHz, are also observed. Additionally, lower-frequency MHD activities, distinct from the fast ion-driven AEs, are present and have some influence on plasma performance. The enhancement of core confinement is primarily attributed to fast ion effects, which were evaluated with respect to dilution, alpha stabilization, and resonant interactions with turbulence using gyrokinetic analyses. Among these, the dilution effect was found to be the most dominant. The characteristics of FIRE mode were compared with those of other hot ion plasma scenarios, such as supershot and hot ion mode. While they share many similarities, FIRE mode is distinguished by the accessibility to conditions with T i ≈ T e , presence of I-mode edge features, and its long-duration sustainment. Predictive simulations of FIRE mode were performed using integrated transport modeling with TRIASSIC, employing the TGLF anomalous transport model. These simulations confirmed the critical role of fast ions in achieving this regime. The future prospect of FIRE mode for application in fusion reactors is discussed, with an emphasis on possibly extending the regime to higher density operation.

FIRE mode↗
DOE OSTI2022

Protoplast fusion in Bacillus species produces frequent, unbiased, genome-wide homologous recombination

Abstract In eukaryotes, fine-scale maps of meiotic recombination events have greatly advanced our understanding of the factors that affect genomic variation patterns and evolution of traits. However, in bacteria that lack natural systems for sexual reproduction, unbiased characterization of recombination landscapes has remained challenging due to variable rates of genetic exchange and influence of natural selection. Here, to overcome these limitations and to gain a genome-wide view on recombination, we crossed Bacillus strains with different genetic distances using protoplast fusion. The offspring displayed complex inheritance patterns with one of the parents consistently contributing the major part of the chromosome backbone and multiple unselected fragments originating from the second parent. Our results demonstrate that this bias was in part due to the action of restriction–modification systems, whereas genome features like GC content and local nucleotide identity did not affect distribution of recombination events around the chromosome. Furthermore, we found that recombination occurred uniformly across the genome without concentration into hotspots. Notably, our results show that species-level genetic distance did not affect genome-wide recombination. This study provides a new insight into the dynamics of recombination in bacteria and a platform for studying recombination patterns in diverse bacterial species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of Heat Treatment on Microstructure and Mechanical Property of 316L Stainless Steel Produced by Laser Powder Bed Fusion

The advanced non-light water reactor designs (Gen IV reactors), including molten salt/ very high temperature/ sodium-cooled and lead-cooled fast reactors, typically operate at higher temperatures and more extreme radiation conditions than light water reactors. An intrinsic part of the deployment and progress of Gen IV reactor designs is selecting the most suitable structural material for a specific application. Additive manufacturing (AM), a fairly new process of making physical, three-dimensional objects from a computer design file, is going to completely change the way of design, build and certify nuclear systems. It offers a range of opportunities to produce complex geometries from existing materials, offers new routes for processing of previously difficult to process materials, allows for design of new high-performance materials, and finally facilitates hybridization of dissimilar materials. This emerging technology has successfully produced cars, wind turbine blade molds and even live cells. It could also open up big opportunities for the nuclear industry to quickly deploy technologies at a fraction of the cost. So far, AM techniques have been preliminarily applied in the field of nuclear reactors, including the classical parts such as the pressure vessel of a small reactor with 508-III steel, the bottom nozzle of a fuel assembly with 304L steel, the fuel cladding with zirconium alloy and the integrated impeller of a pump and the multi-channel valve body with 316L steel [6,7]. The AM applications for operating nuclear reactors started in auxiliary plant components and have slowly migrated to metallic reactors and core components, but many of these are not safety critical components. Although many parts used for nuclear reactors have been fabricated by AM techniques, practical applications in engineering are still a long way off due to the uncertainty factors focused on the processing, material properties, analysis methods and application standards, which feeds the safety and life-cycle of the nuclear reactor. Due to rapid, repeated heating and cooling during production, a high dislocation density was present in the AM material. This microstructure feature is unstable at elevated temperature while high temperature is one of the typical operation environments for nuclear reactors. Thus, it is important to understand the thermal effect on the microstructure of AM material. The objectives of this study are to investigate the effect of heat treatment on the microstructure and mechanical properties of 316L stainless steel produced by laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing, and to determine an appropriate heat treatment practice that will be applied to the lightweight AM lattice-structured material with the same chemistry. The heat treatment study consisted of annealing the samples at a temperature range of 800 to 1200 oC with a 50 oC increment for different times (1-24 hours), followed by vacuum or air cooling. Microstructural characterization was carried out by Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). Grain size and crystallographic orientation were investigated by Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD). Vickers hardness tests with a 0.5 kg load were employed to determine the hardness of samples after different heat treatments. After heat treatment, the random crystallographic orientation was preserved, and the volume fraction of high-angle grain boundaries (grain boundary misorientation =15 oC) remained the same. The dislocation density decreased with annealing temperature due to recovery. The fine subgrain structures in the as-printed specimen were quite stable up to 1200 oC. Minimal recrystallization was observed up to 1200 oC. Recrystallization initiated only after 8.5 hours at 1200 oC. The SEM images did not show obvious dependence of microstructure on cooling rate. The hardness of the specimens decreased with increasing annealing temperature as a result of the decrease in dislocation density. It is interesting to note that the AM material showed very similar hardness to the wrought material when annealing at similar temperature, although the microstructures are very different. Annealing at 1050 oC for 1 hour followed by air cooling was selected as the heat treatment procedure for the lattice designed lightweight AM 316L material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Framework of Multisource Data Fusion for Outage Location in Looped Distribution Systems

Accurate outage location is essential for expediting post-outage power restoration, minimizing outage duration, and enhancing the resilience of distribution networks. With the advent of advanced metering infrastructure, data-driven outage location methods have significantly advanced beyond traditional approaches that rely on manual inspections. However, existing methods still face critical challenges, like reliance on single-source data, limited ability to handle partially observable systems or difficulties with loop networks. To the best of our knowledge, no single approach has comprehensively addressed all of these challenges at once. To this end, this paper proposes a comprehensive multisource data fusion framework for outage locations via probabilistic graph networks. The framework consists of three key phases. First, a novel method for reconstituting distribution networks with loops is developed, transforming looped networks into multiple radial subnetworks that retain all outage causalities of the original network. Second, Bayesian network (BN) models are established for each subnetwork, integrating multiple data sources and network structures. Finally, a joint Gibbs sampling mechanism, featuring forward and backward information flow, is designed to merge data from separate BN models and maximize the utilization of limited evidence, ensuring accurate outage location identification. In conclusion, the framework was validated on two modified public test systems, and comparative studies confirmed its effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Parametric dependencies of resonant layer responses across linear, two-fluid, drift-MHD regimes

Non-axisymmetric magnetic fields arising in a tokamak either by external or internal perturbations can induce complex non-ideal MHD responses in their resonant surfaces while remaining ideally evolved elsewhere. This layer response can be characterized in a linear regime by a single parameter called the inner-layer Δ, which enables outer-layer matching and the prediction of torque balance to non-linear island regimes. In this work, we follow strictly one of the most comprehensive analytic treatments including two-fluid and drift MHD effects and keep the fidelity of the formulation by incorporating the numerical method based on the Riccati transformation when quantifying the inner-layer Δ. The proposed scheme reproduces not only the predicted responses in essentially all asymptotic regimes but also with continuous transitions as well as improved accuracies. In particular, the Δ variations across the inertial regimes with viscous or semi-collisional effects have been further resolved, in comparison with additional analytic solutions. The results imply greater shielding of the electromagnetic torque at the layer than what would be expected by earlier work when the viscous or semi-collisional effects can compete against the inertial effects, and also due to the intermediate regulation by kinetic Alfvén wave resonances as rotation slows down. These are important features that can alter the non-axisymmetric plasma responses including the field penetration by external fields or island seeding process in rotating tokamak plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surface smoothing for laser powder-bed Ti-6Al-4V by a transient liquid phase

Surface roughness is the primary driver of fatigue for additively manufactured metals. To address surface roughness, this work introduces a new method to smooth features beyond line-of-sight without material removal. The method applies a coating that triggers local surface remelting by activating a eutectic reaction during heat treatment. The associated liquid phase then wets and isothermally solidifies into a smoother surface. For Ti-6Al-4V fabricated with laser powder bed fusion, samples with and without TLP smoothing (using a Cu coating) were characterized with a suite of techniques, including mechanical testing, electron backscatter diffraction, synchrotron X-ray tomography, and fractography. TLP smoothing reduced surface roughness by 80% and amplified compressive residual stress at the surface by about 50%. With statistically equivalent virtual microstructures, crystal plasticity scrutinized the roles of phases, porosity, and surface roughness. Although the tensile strain-to-failure was reduced to 1% strain, the TLP smoothing process increased high-cycle fatigue strength by about 20% compared to control samples, pointing to future opportunities to optimize the new process through various coating compositions and heat treatment schedules. Overall, this work establishes a new paradigm for treating surfaces of materials for smoothness and compressive residual stress.

Additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mechanistic Duality of Bacterial Efflux Substrates and Inhibitors: Example of Simple Substituted Cinnamoyl and Naphthyl Amides

Antibiotic resistance poses an immediate and growing threat to human health. Multidrug efflux pumps are promising targets for overcoming antibiotic resistance with small-molecule therapeutics. Previously, we identified a diaminoquinoline acrylamide, NSC-33353, as a potent inhibitor of the AcrAB–TolC efflux pump in Escherichia coli. This inhibitor potentiates the antibacterial activities of novobiocin and erythromycin upon binding to the membrane fusion protein AcrA. It is also a substrate for efflux and lacks appreciable intrinsic antibacterial activity of its own in wild-type cells. Here, we have modified the substituents of the cinnamoyl group of NSC-33353, giving rise to analogs that retain the ability to inhibit efflux, lost the features of the efflux substrates, and gained antibacterial activity in wild-type cells. The replacement of the cinnamoyl group with naphthyl isosteres generated compounds that lack antibacterial activity but are both excellent efflux pump inhibitors and substrates. Surprisingly, these inhibitors potentiate the antibacterial activity of novobiocin but not erythromycin. Surface plasmon resonance experiments and molecular docking suggest that the replacement of the cinnamoyl group with naphthyl shifts the affinity of the compounds away from AcrA to the AcrB transporter, making them better efflux substrates and changing their mechanism of inhibition. These results provide new insights into the duality of efflux substrate/inhibitor features in chemical scaffolds that will facilitate the development of new efflux pump inhibitors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Systems and methods for customizing kernel machines with deep neural networks

A method including receiving an input data set. The input data set can include one of a feature domain set or a kernel matrix. The method also can include constructing dense embeddings using: (i) Nyström approximations on the input data set when the input data set comprises the kernel matrix, and (ii) clustered Nyström approximations on the input data set when the input data set comprises the feature domain set. The method additionally can include performing representation learning on each of the dense embeddings using a multi-layer fully-connected network for each of the dense embeddings to generate latent representations corresponding to each of the dense embeddings. The method further can include applying a fusion layer to the latent representations corresponding to the dense embeddings to generate a combined representation. The method additionally can include performing classification on the combined representation. Other embodiments of related systems and methods are also disclosed.

Song, Huan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning enhanced predictions of ICRF heating: Overcoming numerical limitations via data curation

In this work, we present the development of robust surrogate models for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) and High-Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating predictions in fusion plasmas. Building upon our previous efforts to achieve real-time capable models, we identify the cause of the outliers found using TORIC in certain HHFW heating scenarios. The outliers are observed to be spurious ion Bernstein wave (IBW)-like modes caused by a wavelength control algorithm designed to address challenging scenarios with high perpendicular wavenumbers. The effect arises from the modulation in the perpendicular susceptibility, which can induce sign reversal and IBW-like propagation for scenarios featuring normalized ion Larmor radius λ i ≫ 1. We use TORIC with this algorithm disabled to generate a novel HHFW-NSTX database that is free of outliers. Surrogate models trained on this database, including Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Multi-Layer Perceptrons, and Gaussian Process Regressors (GPR), demonstrate the ability to accurately predict HHFW heating profiles, with regression scores of R 2 ∈[0.93−0.99]. Additionally we demonstrate that it is possible to generalize predictions beyond training data by the use of both RFR and GPR models, enabling the prediction of scenarios previously limited to the original model. GPR models also provide uncertainty quantification, offering insights into model confidence. This work introduces a comprehensive Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification methodology for surrogate modeling, applicable not only to ICRF heating but also to other RF heating challenges and fusion physics problems. Beyond accelerated inference, these models show effective extrapolation capabilities, providing an alternative for addressing numerical challenges.

Artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resolving discrepancies in bang-time predictions for indirect-drive ICF experiments on the NIF: Insights from the Build-A-Hohlraum campaign

This study investigated discrepancies between measured and simulated x-ray drive in Indirect-Drive Inertial Confinement Fusion (ID-ICF) hohlraums at the National Ignition Facility. Despite advances in radiation-hydrodynamic simulations, a consistent “drive deficit” remains. Experimentally measured ID-ICF capsule bang-times are systematically 400–700 ps later than simulations predict. The Build-A-Hohlraum (BAH) campaign explored potential causes for this discrepancy by systematically varying hohlraum features, including laser entrance hole (LEH) windows, capsules, and gas fills. Overall, the agreement between simulated and experimental x-ray drive was found to be largely unaffected by these changes. The data allow us to exclude some hypotheses put forward to potentially explain the discrepancy. Errors in the local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) atomic modeling, errors in the modeling of LEH closure, and errors due to a lack of plasma species mix physics in simulations are shown to be inconsistent with our measurements. Instead, the data support the hypothesis that errors in NLTE emission modeling are a significant contributor to the discrepancy. X-ray emission in the 2–4 keV range is found to be approximately 30% lower than in simulations. This is accompanied by higher than predicted electron temperatures in the gold bubble region, pointing to errors in non-LTE modeling. Introducing an opacity multiplier of 0.87 on energy groups above 1.8 keV improves agreement with experimental data, reducing the bang-time discrepancy from 300 to 100 ps. These results underscore the need for refined NLTE opacity models to enhance the predictive power of hohlraum simulations.

Band emission↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explainable tokamak-agnostic forecasting of fusion plasma instability via megahertz turbulent fluctuations

Scientific applications of artificial intelligence (AI) often remain limited by device-specific training and unexplained “black-box” approaches, creating fundamental barriers to cross-system generalization. This challenge is critical for nuclear fusion, where future reactors will have limited operational data for AI training. Here, we demonstrate that our neural network, trained solely on megahertz-scale turbulence measurements from one machine (DIII-D), forecasts Type-I edge localized mode (ELM) onsets in a different tokamak (KSTAR) through zero-shot weight transfer following physics-consistent preprocessing without device-specific retraining. Through an explainable AI framework combining gradient-weighted class activation mapping with physics validation, we reveal that our network can internalize physics relationships governing the ELM instabilities rather than memorizing device-specific patterns. The network perceives spatiotemporal features that correlate consistently with independently calculated instability growth rates, magnetohydrodynamic stability limits, and pedestal structure dynamics. Statistical analyses of dimensionally-reduced saliency features reveal the identical triangular features between the saliency representations, instability growth rates, and prediction probability across tokamaks, providing evidence that our forecasting system can show tokamak-agnostic generalization. This work contributes to a foundation for explainable scientific AI systems, where cross-system developments are essential for transcending traditional domain-specific constraints.

AI↗