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At least 307 records · Page 17

Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Decision Making During Spacecraft Operations

Decisions made during the operational phase of a space mission often have significant and immediate consequences. Without the explicit consideration of the risks involved and their representation in a solid model, it is very likely that these risks are not considered systematically in trade studies. Wrong decisions during the operational phase of a space mission can lead to immediate system failure whereas correct decisions can help recover the system even from faulty conditions. A problem of special interest is the determination of the system fault protection strategies upon the occurrence of faults within the system. Decisions regarding the fault protection strategy also heavily rely on a correct understanding of the state of the system and an integrated risk model that represents the various possible scenarios and their respective likelihoods. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling is applicable to the full lifecycle of a space mission project, from concept development to preliminary design, detailed design, development and operations. The benefits and utilities of the model, however, depend on the phase of the mission for which it is used. This is because of the difference in the key strategic decisions that support each mission phase. The focus of this paper is on describing the particular methods used for PRA modeling during the operational phase of a spacecraft by gleaning insight from recently conducted case studies on two operational Mars orbiters. During operations, the key decisions relate to the commands sent to the spacecraft for any kind of diagnostics, anomaly resolution, trajectory changes, or planning. Often, faults and failures occur in the parts of the spacecraft but are contained or mitigated before they can cause serious damage. The failure behavior of the system during operations provides valuable data for updating and adjusting the related PRA models that are built primarily based on historical failure data. The PRA models, in turn, provide insight into the effect of various faults or failures on the risk and failure drivers of the system and the likelihood of possible end case scenarios, thereby facilitating the decision making process during operations. This paper describes the process of adjusting PRA models based on observed spacecraft data, on one hand, and utilizing the models for insight into the future system behavior on the other hand. While PRA models are typically used as a decision aid during the design phase of a space mission, we advocate adjusting them based on the observed behavior of the spacecraft and utilizing them for decision support during the operations phase.

dynamic fault trees↗

Scalable Technologies Achieving Risk-Informed Condition-Based Predictive Maintenance Enhancing the Economic Performance of Operating Nuclear Power Plants

The primary objective of the research presented in this report is to develop scalable technologies that are deployable across plant assets and across the nuclear fleet to achieve risk-informed predictive maintenance (PdM) strategies at commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). Over the years, the nuclear fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming preventive maintenance (PM) programs, driving up operation and maintenance (O&M) costs to achieve high capacity factors. A well-constructed risk-informed PdM approach for an identified plant asset has been developed in this research, taking advantage of advancements in data analytics, machine learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI), physics-informed modeling, and visualization. These technologies would allow commercial NPPs to reliably transition from current labor-intensive PM programs to a technology driven PdM program, eliminating unnecessary O&M costs. The work presented in the report is being developed as part of a collaborative research effort between Idaho National Laboratory and Public Service Enterprise Group Nuclear, LLC. This report (1) reflects the results of work by LWRS Program researchers with PSEG, Nuclear LLC-owned Salem and Hope Creek Nuclear Power Plants; (2) presents utilization of circulating water system (CWS) heterogeneous data and fault modes from both the Salem and Hope Creek nuclear power plant sites to develop salient fault signatures associated with each fault mode; (3) describes the integration of component-level predictive models into a robust system-level model enabled by the federated-transfer learning; (4) describes the development of physics-informed model of circulating water pump and motor; (5) develops a scalable risk and economic model; and (6) outlines the development of a user-centric visualization application. The outcomes presented in this report lays the foundation and provides a much-needed technical basis to focus on explainability and trustworthiness of ML and AI-based technologies, as part of future research.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Rocket engine diagnostics using neural networks

Two problems in applying neural networks to fault detection and identification are (1) the complexity of the sensor data to fault mapping and (2) the lack of sufficient training data. Here, methods are derived and tested in an architecture which addresses these two problems. First, the sensor data to fault mapping is decomposed into three simpler mappings which perform sensor data compression, hypothesis generation, and sensor fusion. Efficient training is performed for each mapping separately. Second, the neural network which performs sensor fusion is structured to detect new unknown faults for which training examples were not presented. These methods were tested on a task of fault detection and identification in the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). Results indicate that the decomposed neural network architecture can be trained efficiently, can identify faults for which it has been trained, and can detect the occurrence of faults for which it has not been trained.

Whitehead, Bruce A.↗

Disk Crack Detection for Seeded Fault Engine Test

Work was performed to develop and demonstrate vibration diagnostic techniques for the on-line detection of engine rotor disk cracks and other anomalies through a real engine test. An existing single-degree-of-freedom non-resonance-based vibration algorithm was extended to a multi-degree-of-freedom model. In addition, a resonance-based algorithm was also proposed for the case of one or more resonances. The algorithms were integrated into a diagnostic system using state-of-the- art commercial analysis equipment. The system required only non-rotating vibration signals, such as accelerometers and proximity probes, and the rotor shaft 1/rev signal to conduct the health monitoring. Before the engine test, the integrated system was tested in the laboratory by using a small rotor with controlled mass unbalances. The laboratory tests verified the system integration and both the non-resonance and the resonance-based algorithm implementations. In the engine test, the system concluded that after two weeks of cycling, the seeded fan disk flaw did not propagate to a large enough size to be detected by changes in the synchronous vibration. The unbalance induced by mass shifting during the start up and coast down was still the dominant response in the synchronous vibration.

Luo, Huageng↗

Intelligent neuroprocessors for in-situ launch vehicle propulsion systems health management

Efficacy of existing on-board propulsion systems health management systems (HMS) are severely impacted by computational limitations (e.g., low sampling rates); paradigmatic limitations (e.g., low-fidelity logic/parameter redlining only, false alarms due to noisy/corrupted sensor signatures, preprogrammed diagnostics only); and telemetry bandwidth limitations on space/ground interactions. Ultra-compact/light, adaptive neural networks with massively parallel, asynchronous, fast reconfigurable and fault-tolerant information processing properties have already demonstrated significant potential for inflight diagnostic analyses and resource allocation with reduced ground dependence. In particular, they can automatically exploit correlation effects across multiple sensor streams (plume analyzer, flow meters, vibration detectors, etc.) so as to detect anomaly signatures that cannot be determined from the exploitation of single sensor. Furthermore, neural networks have already demonstrated the potential for impacting real-time fault recovery in vehicle subsystems by adaptively regulating combustion mixture/power subsystems and optimizing resource utilization under degraded conditions. A class of high-performance neuroprocessors, developed at JPL, that have demonstrated potential for next-generation HMS for a family of space transportation vehicles envisioned for the next few decades, including HLLV, NLS, and space shuttle is presented. Of fundamental interest are intelligent neuroprocessors for real-time plume analysis, optimizing combustion mixture-ratio, and feedback to hydraulic, pneumatic control systems. This class includes concurrently asynchronous reprogrammable, nonvolatile, analog neural processors with high speed, high bandwidth electronic/optical I/O interfaced, with special emphasis on NASA's unique requirements in terms of performance, reliability, ultra-high density ultra-compactness, ultra-light weight devices, radiation hardened devices, power stringency, and long life terms.

Gulati, S.↗

Fault Tree Based Diagnosis with Optimal Test Sequencing for Field Service Engineers

When field service engineers go to customer sites to service equipment, they want to diagnose and repair failures quickly and cost effectively. Symptoms exhibited by failed equipment frequently suggest several possible causes which require different approaches to diagnosis. This can lead the engineer to follow several fruitless paths in the diagnostic process before they find the actual failure. To assist in this situation, we have developed the Fault Tree Diagnosis and Optimal Test Sequence (FTDOTS) software system that performs automated diagnosis and ranks diagnostic hypotheses based on failure probability and the time or cost required to isolate and repair each failure. FTDOTS first finds a set of possible failures that explain exhibited symptoms by using a fault tree reliability model as a diagnostic knowledge to rank the hypothesized failures based on how likely they are and how long it would take or how much it would cost to isolate and repair them. This ordering suggests an optimal sequence for the field service engineer to investigate the hypothesized failures in order to minimize the time or cost required to accomplish the repair task. Previously, field service personnel would arrive at the customer site and choose which components to investigate based on past experience and service manuals. Using FTDOTS running on a portable computer, they can now enter a set of symptoms and get a list of possible failures ordered in an optimal test sequence to help them in their decisions. If facilities are available, the field engineer can connect the portable computer to the malfunctioning device for automated data gathering. FTDOTS is currently being applied to field service of medical test equipment. The techniques are flexible enough to use for many different types of devices. If a fault tree model of the equipment and information about component failure probabilities and isolation times or costs are available, a diagnostic knowledge base for that device can be developed easily.

Iverson, David L.↗

Detecting and diagnosing SSME faults using an autoassociative neural network topology

An effort is underway at the University of Tennessee Space Institute to develop diagnostic expert system methodologies based on the analysis of patterns of behavior of physical mechanisms. In this approach, fault diagnosis is conceptualized as the mapping or association of patterns of sensor data to patterns representing fault conditions. Neural networks are being investigated as a means of storing and retrieving fault scenarios. Neural networks offer several powerful features in fault diagnosis, including (1) general pattern matching capabilities, (2) resistance to noisy input data, (3) the ability to be trained by example, and (4) the potential for implementation on parallel computer architectures. This paper presents (1) an autoassociative neural network topology, i.e. the network input and output is identical when properly trained, and hence learning is unsupervised; (2) the training regimen used; and (3) the response of the system to inputs representing both previously observed and unkown fault scenarios. The effects of noise on the integrity of the diagnosis are also evaluated.

Ali, M.↗

Classification of data patterns using an autoassociative neural network topology

A diagnostic expert system based on neural networks is developed and applied to the real-time diagnosis of jet and rocket engines. The expert system methodologies are based on the analysis of patterns of behavior of physical mechanisms. In this approach, fault diagnosis is conceptualized as the mapping or association of patterns of sensor data to patterns representing fault conditions. The approach addresses deficiencies inherent in many feedforward neural network models and greatly reduces the number of networks necessary to identify the existence of a fault condition and estimate the duration and severity of the identified fault. The network topology used in the present implementation of the diagnostic system is described, as well as the training regimen used and the response of the system to inputs representing both previously observed and unknown fault scenarios. Noise effects on the integrity of the diagnosis are also evaluated.

Dietz, W. E.↗

Representing Complex Systems as Graphs for Debugging and Predictive Maintenance-Preliminary Thoughts

Representing complex systems as graphs enables use of mathematical tools to identify faults or predict failures. Graph nodes correspond to individual modules or subsystems, and edges link coupled system parts. ‘Probes’ measure the node outputs, monitoring the system health for unexpected behavior. Assuming one cannot probe every point, within a system, the fault correlates to a region—not necessarily the specific location. Bayesian networks trained to understand fault patterns can accurately identify the source. The diagnostic tool described aides debugging by pinpointing system failure causes. For predictive maintenance, probe data develop probability distribution functions describing subsystem mean time to failure. Unit lifetime can be estimated through these probability distributions. Two approaches include using Bayesian classifiers to infer the system failure source and developing maintenance schedules by treating systems as collections of random variables. When failure behavior does not follow a closed form function, use of similarity models is proposed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Real-time computer simulation/emulation for verification of multi-fault-tolerant control of Centaur-in-Shuttle

NASA has contracted with General Dynamics to design and develop an advanced Centaur liquid upper stage for support of the Galileo and Solar Polar interplanetary missions in 1985-86. The control of the Centaur while it resides in the Shuttle cargo bay must meet the STS safety requirements to be dual failure tolerant in all mission critical functions. The demonstration of the integrity of this control system in the event of multiple component failures and worst-case time-phase asynchroniety among the system's computers is performed by a real-time computer simulation. The simulation emulates the control hardware, subsystem interfaces, and imbedded software processes, wire-by-wire, to provide accessibility for fault insertion. Observability is provided via graphics and diagnostic software. Verification is the product of Monte Carlo simulation analysis.

Szatkowski, G. P.↗

Automatic translation of digraph to fault-tree models

The author presents a technique for converting digraph models, including those models containing cycles, to a fault-tree format. A computer program which automatically performs this translation using an object-oriented representation of the models has been developed. The fault-trees resulting from translations can be used for fault-tree analysis and diagnosis. Programs to calculate fault-tree and digraph cut sets and perform diagnosis with fault-tree models have also been developed. The digraph to fault-tree translation system has been successfully tested on several digraphs of varying size and complexity. Details of some representative translation problems are presented. Most of the computation performed by the program is dedicated to finding minimal cut sets for digraph nodes in order to break cycles in the digraph. Fault-trees produced by the translator have been successfully used with NASA's Fault-Tree Diagnosis System (FTDS) to produce automated diagnostic systems.

Iverson, David L.↗

NASA CSTI Earth-to-orbit propulsion R/T program overview

The topics presented are covered in viewgraph form. The programmatic objectives are to develop and validate technology, design tools, and methodologies needed for the development of a new generation of lower cost, operationally-efficient, long-life, highly reliable ETO propulsion systems. The technical objectives are: (1) high quality, low cost, inspectable manufacturing; (2) safe shutdown to fault tolerance operations for safety; (3) condition monitoring diagnostics for maintainability; (4) automatic servicing and checkout for ground operations; (5) max commensurate with life for performance; and full flow, combined cycle for advanced cycles.

Moses, James L.↗

Software Tools to Support the Assessment of System Health

This presentation provides an overview of three software tools that were developed by the NASA Glenn Research Center to support the assessment of system health: the Propulsion Diagnostic Method Evaluation Strategy (ProDIMES), the Systematic Sensor Selection Strategy (S4), and the Extended Testability Analysis (ETA) tool. Originally developed to support specific NASA projects in aeronautics and space, these software tools are currently available to U.S. citizens through the NASA Glenn Software Catalog. The ProDiMES software tool was developed to support a uniform comparison of propulsion gas path diagnostic methods. Methods published in the open literature are typically applied to dissimilar platforms with different levels of complexity. They often address different diagnostic problems and use inconsistent metrics for evaluating performance. As a result, it is difficult to perform a one ]to ]one comparison of the various diagnostic methods. ProDIMES solves this problem by serving as a theme problem to aid in propulsion gas path diagnostic technology development and evaluation. The overall goal is to provide a tool that will serve as an industry standard, and will truly facilitate the development and evaluation of significant Engine Health Management (EHM) capabilities. ProDiMES has been developed under a collaborative project of The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP) based on feedback provided by individuals within the aircraft engine health management community. The S4 software tool provides a framework that supports the optimal selection of sensors for health management assessments. S4 is structured to accommodate user ]defined applications, diagnostic systems, search techniques, and system requirements/constraints. One or more sensor suites that maximize this performance while meeting other user ]defined system requirements that are presumed to exist. S4 provides a systematic approach for evaluating combinations of sensors to determine the set or sets of sensors that optimally meet the performance goals and the constraints. It identifies optimal sensor suite solutions by utilizing a merit (i.e., cost) function with one of several available optimization approaches. As part of its analysis, S4 can expose fault conditions that are difficult to diagnose due to an incomplete diagnostic philosophy and/or a lack of sensors. S4 was originally developed and applied to liquid rocket engines. It was subsequently used to study the optimized selection of sensors for a simulation ]based aircraft engine diagnostic system. The ETA Tool is a software ]based analysis tool that augments the testability analysis and reporting capabilities of a commercial ]off ]the ]shelf (COTS) package. An initial diagnostic assessment is performed by the COTS software using a user ]developed, qualitative, directed ]graph model of the system being analyzed. The ETA Tool accesses system design information captured within the model and the associated testability analysis output to create a series of six reports for various system engineering needs. These reports are highlighted in the presentation. The ETA Tool was developed by NASA to support the verification of fault management requirements early in the Launch Vehicle process. Due to their early development during the design process, the TEAMS ]based diagnostic model and the ETA Tool were able to positively influence the system design by highlighting gaps in failure detection, fault isolation, and failure recovery.

Melcher, Kevin J.↗

Diagnosing Intermittent and Persistent Faults using Static Bayesian Networks

Both intermittent and persistent faults may occur in a wide range of systems. We present in this paper the introduction of intermittent fault handling techniques into ProDiagnose, an algorithm that previously only handled persistent faults. We discuss novel algorithmic techniques as well as how our static Bayesian networks help diagnose, in an integrated manner, a range of intermittent and persistent faults. Through experiments with data from the ADAPT electrical power system test bed, generated as part of the Second International Diagnostic Competition (DXC-10), we show that this novel variant of ProDiagnose diagnoses intermittent faults accurately and quickly, while maintaining strong performance on persistent faults.

Megshoel, Ole Jakob↗

Method and system for diagnostics of apparatus

Proposed is a method, implemented in software, for estimating fault state of an apparatus outfitted with sensors. At each execution period the method processes sensor data from the apparatus to obtain a set of parity parameters, which are further used for estimating fault state. The estimation method formulates a convex optimization problem for each fault hypothesis and employs a convex solver to compute fault parameter estimates and fault likelihoods for each fault hypothesis. The highest likelihoods and corresponding parameter estimates are transmitted to a display device or an automated decision and control system. The obtained accurate estimate of fault state can be used to improve safety, performance, or maintenance processes for the apparatus.

Gorinevsky, Dimitry↗

Application of Diagnostic Analysis Tools to the Ares I Thrust Vector Control System

The NASA Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle is being designed to support missions to the International Space Station (ISS), to the Moon, and beyond. The Ares I is undergoing design and development utilizing commercial-off-the-shelf tools and hardware when applicable, along with cutting edge launch technologies and state-of-the-art design and development. In support of the vehicle s design and development, the Ares Functional Fault Analysis group was tasked to develop an Ares Vehicle Diagnostic Model (AVDM) and to demonstrate the capability of that model to support failure-related analyses and design integration. One important component of the AVDM is the Upper Stage (US) Thrust Vector Control (TVC) diagnostic model-a representation of the failure space of the US TVC subsystem. This paper first presents an overview of the AVDM, its development approach, and the software used to implement the model and conduct diagnostic analysis. It then uses the US TVC diagnostic model to illustrate details of the development, implementation, analysis, and verification processes. Finally, the paper describes how the AVDM model can impact both design and ground operations, and how some of these impacts are being realized during discussions of US TVC diagnostic analyses with US TVC designers.

Maul, William A.↗

Optimizing Residential HVAC Systems: Evaluating How the Usage of Smart Diagnostic Tools for Quality Installation and Commissioning Impacts System Performance and HVAC Contractor Businesses

The adoption of digital quality installation and fault detection tools has the potential to transform the $14 billon residential heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) service and installation industry. Increased market penetration can be accelerated by providing an increased understanding of the energy and economic value proposition of the usage of these tools. In tandem with energy and HVAC system performance impact research and analysis, the Southface Team investigated the economic business implications for HVAC service and installation contractors adopting the use of measureQuick (mQ), a smart diagnostic app that aids in quality installation and fault detection and works agnostically with Bluetooth-enabled HVAC technician tools.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗