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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Framework for Maintenance Scheduling Based on Dynamic Preventive Intervals and Remaining Useful Life Estimation

Data-based prognostic methods exploit sensor data to forecast the remaining useful life (RUL) of industrial settings to optimize the scheduling of maintenance actions. However, implementing sensors may not be cost-effective or practical for all components. Traditional preventive approaches are not based on sensor data; however, they schedule maintenance at equally spaced intervals, which is not a cost-effective approach since the distribution of the time between failures changes with the degradation state of other parts or changes in working conditions. This study introduces a novel framework comprising two maintenance scheduling strategies. In the absence of sensor data, we propose a novel dynamic preventive policy that adjusts intervention intervals based on the most recent failure data. When sensor data are available, a method for RUL prediction, designated k-LSTM-GFT, is enhanced to dynamically account for RUL prediction uncertainty. The results demonstrate that dynamic preventive maintenance can yield cost reductions of up to 51.8% compared to conventional approaches. The predictive approach optimizes the exploitation of RUL, achieving costs that are only 3–5% higher than the minimum cost achievable while ensuring the safety of critical systems since all of the failures are avoided.

Nunes, Pedro (ORCID:0000000180012172)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for Predicting Multipactor Susceptibility in Planar RF Structures

Multipactor discharge is a persistent challenge in high-power microwave (HPM) and accelerator systems, where secondary electron avalanches can cause heating, vacuum degradation, and failure. This work presents the first supervised machine learning (ML) framework for multipactor prediction, trained on high-fidelity 3D Particle-in-Cell (PIC) simulation data in planar geometries. The model maps operational, geometric, and material-dependent secondary electron yield (SEY) parameters to the time-averaged electron growth rate, enabling rapid reconstruction of susceptibility charts. Among the models evaluated, tree-based ensemble methods such as Random Forest and Extra Trees demonstrate superior generalization to unseen materials compared to neural networks such as multilayer perceptron (MLP). Performance metrics, including Intersection over Union (IoU), Structural Similarity Index Measure (SSIM), and Pearson correlation, show close agreement with simulation benchmarks. Principal Component Analysis attributes generalization limits to material feature-space disjointedness.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reformulating a Gurson-based dynamic damage model and demonstrating improved predictive power and numerical robustness

The original Tepla (TEnsile PLAsticity) ductile damage model, based on the Gurson yield surface, has long been used to model damage evolution and material failure under dynamic loading. Unfortunately, Tepla suffered from mesh sensitivity, numerical instability, and limited predictive capability. Here, we theoretically reformulate Tepla to address these issues. We especially focus on the prediction of porosity, which is the key state variable used for modeling ductile damage, as compared to more easily measured surface velocities, which are at best an indirect measure of damage. Key model changes include separating the viscosity during volumetric void growth from underlying shear strength behavior and switching to an iterative bisection solver. The new Tepla is then calibrated on incipient spall experiments on half-hard copper and tantalum, which demonstrate its ability to simultaneously fit the model to recovered porosity distributions and measured surface velocities, a stringent test. Improved numerical behavior, such as greatly reduced mesh sensitivity, is also shown in those simulations. Finally, the new Tepla model is applied to several high-explosive loaded, sweeping wave experiments, showing the ability of the model to predict behavior on tests with significantly different loading conditions and histories than the calibration data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Notch insensitivity in fatigue failure of chopped carbon fiber chip-reinforced composites using experimental and computational analysis

This study focuses on the notch effect on the fatigue failure of chopped carbon fiber chip-reinforced sheet molding compound (SMC) composites by using both experimental and numerical methods. The S-N diagrams of notched specimens are first obtained experimentally, which exhibit large scatter and are shown to depend on the spatial distribution of local fiber orientations. After considering the effect of this spatial distribution by adopting a new fatigue damage parameter to normalize the results, we achieve a much better correlation in the normalized S-N diagram for all the notched specimens with different hole diameters. Next, compared with the fatigue results of smooth specimens without notches, we find that SMC composites under tension-tension fatigue loading exhibit notch-insensitivity, which renders this type of composites a better candidate in joints or similar applications. Meanwhile, the fatigue failure mechanisms of notched SMC composites are explored through a microstructure characterization procedure. On this basis, a computational micromechanics model considering the notch effect and an improved multi-scale progressive damage fatigue law, calibrated by coupon-level fatigue tests of smooth SMC composites under different loading conditions, are employed to predict the fatigue behavior of notched SMC composites. We show that detailed failure processes and fatigue life of notched SMC composites can be efficiently and adequately predicted by this computational framework.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Guidelines for predicting stress in cemented doublets undergoing temperature change

This work explores quick predictive methods for calculating potentially risky stresses and deflections in cemented doublets experiencing temperature change that agree well with finite element analysis. There are three failure modes of interest: cohesive failure of the adhesive, delamination (surface bond failure or debonding), and glass fracture. Adhesive theory, confirmed by finite element analysis, predicts stress singularities that complicate interpretation of the stress calculations. The presence of a stress singularity indicates the breakdown of linear elastic assumptions, but damage initiation and stress singularities are related. The authors find that geometry details near a bond edge can exacerbate or minimize damage initiation and stress concentrations. Because the interpretation of the stress results is complicated, the authors investigated predicted stresses in doublets that have been successfully tested between -40 and 85 °C. This study found that the product (ΔT ∙ Δα) should be less than 189 ppm, where ΔT is the temperature excursion and Δα is the difference in glass coefficient of thermal expansion. If the product (ΔT ∙ Δα) is equal to or greater than 189 ppm, further analysis and testing is warranted. But the authors also show that the fabrication process can significantly influence stress failure, particularly with large diameter doublets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Guidelines for predicting stress in cemented doublets undergoing temperature change

This work explores quick predictive methods for calculating potentially risky stresses and deflections in cemented doublets experiencing temperature change that agree well with finite element analysis. There are three failure modes of interest: cohesive failure of the adhesive, delamination (surface bond failure or debonding), and glass fracture. Adhesive theory, confirmed by finite element analysis, predicts stress singularities that complicate interpretation of the stress calculations. The presence of a stress singularity indicates the breakdown of linear elastic assumptions, but damage initiation and stress singularities are related. The authors find that geometry details near a bond edge can exacerbate or minimize damage initiation and stress concentrations. Because the interpretation of the stress results is complicated, the authors investigated predicted stresses in doublets that have been successfully tested between -40 and 85 °C. This study found that the product (∆T ∙ ∆α) should be less than 189 ppm, where ∆T is the temperature excursion and ∆α is the difference in glass coefficient of thermal expansion. If the product (∆T ∙ ∆α) is equal to or greater than 189 ppm, further analysis and testing is warranted. But the authors also show that the fabrication process can significantly influence stress failure, particularly with large diameter doublets

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Processed Lab Data for Neural Network-Based Shear Stress Level Prediction

Machine learning can be used to predict fault properties such as shear stress, friction, and time to failure using continuous records of fault zone acoustic emissions. The files are extracted features and labels from lab data (experiment p4679). The features are extracted with a non-overlapping window from the original acoustic data. The first column is the time of the window. The second and third columns are the mean and the variance of the acoustic data in this window, respectively. The 4th-11th column is the the power spectrum density ranging from low to high frequency. And the last column is the corresponding label (shear stress level). The name of the file means which driving velocity the sequence is generated from. Data were generated from laboratory friction experiments conducted with a biaxial shear apparatus. Experiments were conducted in the double direct shear configuration in which two fault zones are sheared between three rigid forcing blocks. Our samples consisted of two 5-mm-thick layers of simulated fault gouge with a nominal contact area of 10 by 10 cm^2. Gouge material consisted of soda-lime glass beads with initial particle size between 105 and 149 micrometers. Prior to shearing, we impose a constant fault normal stress of 2 MPa using a servo-controlled load-feedback mechanism and allow the sample to compact. Once the sample has reached a constant layer thickness, the central block is driven down at constant rate of 10 micrometers per second. In tandem, we collect an AE signal continuously at 4 MHz from a piezoceramic sensor embedded in a steel forcing block about 22 mm from the gouge layer The data from this experiment can be used with the deep learning algorithm to train it for future fault property prediction.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Fast, Accurate Prediction for System-Wide Damage Due to Dynamic Wind Loading

The complex relationship between photovoltaic (PV) hardware configurations, overall system dynamics, and turbulent aerodynamic phenomena generates highly unsteady, non-uniform loads that can lead to damaging instabilities. These effects may result in glass breakage, cell cracking, and structural failures in frames and mounting systems, even under moderate wind conditions. Addressing industry concerns about premature system failures in field conditions deemed survivable, our research aims to develop a fast and accurate predictive model for system damage. This model integrates configurable hardware choices with advanced simulation tools to represent the overall system-specific dynamics effectively. Using this model, we predict responses under varying weather conditions and hardware setups, translating these predictions into pre-trained surrogate models capable of accurately identifying failure risks and rapidly testing new system hardening measures. In this presentation, we will showcase preliminary results in capturing system dynamics through our customizable library of PV hardware configurations. Additionally, we will highlight how these new tools build upon PVade's established wind load modeling capabilities and foster the development of advanced AI/ML surrogates for improving system robustness.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Numerical and experimental analysis of mechanically induced failure in electric vehicle battery modules

Mitigating thermal runaway and cell-to-cell propagation is essential for improving the safety of electric and hybrid vehicles. Enhancing digital twin capabilities to predict battery mechanical abuse is particularly critical for automotive and aerospace applications, where crashworthiness is a key concern. Understanding failure conditions and propagation in battery modules during mechanical abuse is complex due to interactions between structural deformation, heat transfer, electrochemical processes, exothermic reactions and mechanical fracture. While prior studies have focused on modeling cell-level behavior, extending these models to module or pack level is necessary for a system level understating of electric vehicle safety. This study develops coupled large deformation finite element models that simultaneously solve for electrochemistry, material failure, internal short circuit and thermal runaway propagation. The models account for mechanical and thermal interactions between lithium-ion cells and other battery components while the contact interfaces are evolving with time. Model-predicted voltage, temperature and force responses are compared with experimental data for validation. The results demonstrate that the approach captures key failure mechanisms, including thermal propagation through heat transfer, electrical propagation from short circuits in parallel-connected cells, and mechanical propagation via penetration and crack formation. These findings show that computational models are valuable tools for understanding battery module failure and providing insight that can reduce the need for extensive experimental testing.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling deformation and failure in AlSi-polyester abradable sealcoating material using microstructure-based finite element simulation

A plasma-sprayed aluminum-silicon (AlSi)/polyester coating is applied in modern gas turbine engines as an abradable sealcoating to maintain tight clearances between the rotating blades and the static casing. While running the engine, the rotating blades “rub” with the abradable coating, which results in extreme strain rate (up to 10 6 ) dynamics and a high-temperature environment. Due to the difficulty of collecting direct measurements, predictive computational models are important for analyzing the deformation and failure of the abradable material, to help meet the design target of avoiding damage to the blade tip and maintaining high fuel efficiency. In this research, a microstructure-based finite element (FE) computational model was developed to capture the complex mechanical behavior of the AlSi/polyester microstructure. The model is based on a virtual representative-volume-element (RVE) of a metal-polymer microstructure, reconstructed from x-ray computed tomography. It models the plastic deformation of, and damage to, each AlSi and polyester constituents, as well as the failure at their interface. The model was calibrated and validated with uniaxial tension and compression experiments, conducted at two temperatures (298 K and 533 K) at an applied strain rate of 10 3 - 10 4 s -1 . The material exhibited strongly asymmetric tension-compression behavior and a sensitivity to temperature, which was well captured by the model. The model was further applied to investigate changes in mechanical behavior due to variations in constituents’ volume fractions, which provides guidance to the microstructural design of AlSi/polyester abradable materials. The model is expected to facilitate the development of improved abradable materials by bypassing the conventional trial-and-error approach and extensive testing requirements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting the heat release variability of Li-ion cells under thermal runaway with few or no calorimetry data

Accurate measurement of the variability of thermal runaway behavior of lithium-ion cells is critical for designing safe battery systems. However, experimentally determining such variability is challenging, expensive, and time-consuming. Here, we utilize a transfer learning approach to accurately estimate the variability of heat output during thermal runaway using only ejected mass measurements and cell metadata, leveraging 139 calorimetry measurements on commercial lithium-ion cells available from the open-access Battery Failure Databank. We show that the distribution of heat output, including outliers, can be predicted accurately and with high confidence for new cell types using just 0 to 5 calorimetry measurements by leveraging behaviors learned from the Battery Failure Databank. Fractional heat ejection from the positive vent, cell body, and negative vent are also accurately predicted. We demonstrate that by using low cost and fast measurements, we can predict the variability in thermal behaviors of cells, thus accelerating critical safety characterization efforts.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stress Controls Rupture Extent and Maximum Magnitude of Induced Earthquakes

Abstract Seismic hazard forecasts of induced seismicity often require estimates of the maximum possible magnitude ( M max ). Empirical models suggest that maximum magnitudes, or expected number of earthquakes, are related to the volume of injected fluid. We perform a suite of 3D physics‐based earthquake simulations with rate‐ and state‐dependent friction, systematically varying the area of the pressurized region and the amplitude of the initial homogeneous or heterogeneous shear stress. Using the resulting catalog we explore the conditions that result in pressure‐controlled versus runaway ruptures that extend outside the pressurized zone. We find that proposed empirical scaling laws correctly predict M max when shear stresses are further from failure (≤90% of maximum shear stress) and for high amplitude stress fields. Runaway ruptures are observed for higher initial shear stresses and smoother stress fields. In these cases, runaway ruptures occur early after the onset of injection and rarely preceded by foreshock activity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydromechanical Modeling of Fault Rupture in Geologic CO 2 Sequestration: A Comparison of Two Failure Criteria

Abstract The large‐scale implementation of geological carbon sequestration has raised concerns about potential fault activation and induced seismicity, which could compromise storage integrity and pose seismic risks. We theoretically compared two failure criteria, Mohr‐Coulomb (MC) and Modified Cam‐Clay criteria (MCC), to assess fault rupture during CO 2 storage. Both criteria characterize fault behavior in a specific stress regime but differ in reducing the complexity of fault rupture to a few key mechanisms. Using a coupled hydromechanical model, we demonstrate that the choice of a failure criterion and the physics of fault weakening associated with these criteria strongly condition fault response to a given fluid injection. MC mainly relates rupture to friction, while MCC relates rupture to fault poro‐plasticity. Our findings highlight that the selection of a failure criterion, being inherently subjective, can significantly alter the predicted fault behavior during CO 2 storage, thereby impacting the reliability of geomechanical risk assessments.

Cao, M. [Energy Geosciences Division Lawrence Berk↗
DOE OSTI2020

High Explosive Ignition through Chemically Activated Nanoscale Shear Bands

Shock initiation and detonation of high explosives is considered to be controlled through hot spots, which are local regions of elevated temperature that accelerate chemical reactions. Using classical molecular dynamics, we predict the formation of nanoscale shear bands through plastic failure in shocked TATB high explosive crystal. By scale-bridging with quantum-based molecular dynamics, we show that shear bands exhibit lower reaction barriers. While shear bands quickly cool,they remain chemically activated and support increased reaction rates without the local heating typically evoked by the hot spot paradigm. We describe this phenomenon as chemical activation through shear banding

Chemistry - Inorganic↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermophysical Property Measurements on Salt Mixture

Thermal conductivity, specific heat, viscosity, and density are critical properties for understanding thermal hydraulics of heat transfer fluids (HTFs) like molten salts. These properties are important for design and safe operation of any HTF loop. These characterizations are required to benchmark computational chemical models that are used to predict properties, but existent data are limited. These measurements are extremely difficult to make due to the operating temperature range and corrosive properties of the salt.Density measurements are needed to predict volumetric behavior. Thermal expansion mismatches can cause mechanical failure of structural materials and important components that are in contact with the molten salt. All of these properties are related to heat transfer in HTFs. The heat generated in a reactor must be high enough to derive power; however it should not be so hot that it cannot be safely removed via the HTF at an appropriate rate. It is important to understand the thermal hydraulics required to operate at the desired power generation level and to avoid situations in which thermal shifts can damage components,cause failure of structural materials, and/or lead to accidents. Understanding these thermal properties can aid in component and process design and can contribute to optimized operational and safety parameters.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-Temperature Linear Receiver Enabled by Multicomponent Aerogels

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technology has significant potential mainly due to its dispatchability and low cost of storage. However, to compete with other sources, including utility-scale solar PV, its final cost (cents/kWh) still needs to be lowered. Cost reduction can be achieved by improving the system level efficiency of the CST plants through the deployment of advanced power cycles, which operate at high temperatures of ~700°C. However, optical, and thermal losses pose a major challenge to the efficiency of such CST systems. The overall aim of this project is to investigate and de-risk a linear solar receiver concept called an Aerogel Insulated Receiver (AIR) that generates high temperatures (up to 700°C) at a low solar concentration ratio (<100) and with a high collection efficiency (optical × receiver). Our prior work has demonstrated the thermal stability1 and optical and heat-insulating properties2,3 of transparent aerogel insulation at a one-inch scale. The focus of this work is on (1) co-optimization of the geometry of the aerogel tile and receiver enclosure to fit a standard parabolic collector (PTC), (2) scale-up of aerogels into 4-inch tiles while preserving key properties, (3) experimental measurement of receiver heat loss (W/m) in a >70-cm test stand and validation of anticipated receiver performance at high temperatures. Regarding (1), appropriate optical and thermal models for a parabolic trough receiver (PTR) are developed and validated. The geometry of the aerogels and the receiver enclosure are co-optimized to maximize the collection efficiency. The model predicts a 54% collection efficiency at 700°C for an AIR design based on flat aerogels. By combining the collection efficiency with the power block efficiency of supercritical CO 2 cycles, we predict >10% improvements in peak plant efficiency relative to existing line-focusing CST systems. The application of curved plasmonic aerogels is predicted to further increase the collection efficiency to 64%. Regarding (2), we demonstrate the successful development of 6-inch-long refractory aerogel tiles with optical, thermal, and stability characteristics consistent with our prior work. This scale-up requires a transition to a larger ALD station and modifying the ALD process variables such as exposure time and the number of precursor doses. Regarding (3), we design and develop an AIR test stand measuring 3 feet in length. Heat loss performance analysis is carried out using the test stand. The results indicate that aerogel insulation can significantly reduce receiver thermal losses at the high operating temperatures required for next-generation PTRs. The experimental results agree with the heat loss performance predicted by our receiver model. Lastly, we conducted preliminary failure mode and effects (FMEA) and techno-economic (TEA) analyses to identify failure mitigation strategies and commercial opportunities, respectively. Overall, this project identifies key opportunities and challenges in deploying aerogel insulating receivers in next-generation line-focusing CST technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of Testing Methods to Predict Cracking in Photovoltaic Backsheets

In recent years there have been some significant failures of photovoltaic backsheets resulting from inadequacies of design that are not detected in current versions of the qualification standards. In some cases, this has resulted in catastrophic failure in less than 5 y of deployment. In this work, we develop a test sample construction and evaluate accelerated exposure conditions necessary to duplicate the cracking field failure of backsheets using a small and manageable coupon. This sample uses a piece of solder wire to put some controlled topology and stress into the backsheet. Through exposure to different environmental stressors it was found that the application of thermal cycling stresses, after ultraviolet radiation exposure, is of primary importance to duplicate field failures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A better understanding of the mechanics of borehole breakout utilizing a finite strain gradient-enhanced micropolar continuum model

Borehole breakout denotes the failure in rock mass subjected to drilling, caused by stress concentrations exceeding the material strength. Depending on the material properties, the preexisting in situ stress state, and the borehole dimensions, different types of borehole breakout, such as spiral-shaped breakout or v-shaped breakout, are distinguished in the literature. In the present work, we address the influence of the material properties on the predicted borehole breakout mode in a comprehensive finite element study. To this end, herein we employ a gradient-enhanced micropolar damage-plasticity model based on the Mohr–Coulomb strength criterion, formulated in the finite strain regime, which is calibrated based on experimental results from plane strain compression tests on Red Wildmoor sandstone. In the numerical study, the influence of the in situ stress state, the material friction angle, plastic dilation, post peak residual strength, and the inherent material length scale parameters are investigated. Thereby, we demonstrate that depending on the material parameters, substantially different failure modes, characterized by strongly localized shear bands or diffuse failure zones, are predicted. It is shown that in particular the brittleness of the material in the post peak regime has a major influence on the predicted breakout type. Moreover, a statistical validation of the results is obtained by considering different random field distributions of the initial material strength.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗