Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “failure”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Failure analysis of field-failed bypass diodes

Defective bypass diodes are often found as the largest factor leading to power loss in solar modules. Here, we report on failure mechanisms by investigating shunted bypass diodes from a rooftop installation, using a combination of multiple characterizations including current–voltage analysis, thermal-runaway testing, X-ray computed tomography, lock-in thermography, focused ion-beam cross-section imaging, chemical decapsulation, optical microscopy, and scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. Differing from static discharge typically associated with lightning strikes on modules, we found diode failure by the mechanism of thermal damage under continuous, long-term overstress in forward bias. Our conclusion is based on evidence of energy dissipated—the small to medium extent of melt-through on the Schottky diode face. The diode failure shows distortions or roughening of the Schottky diode metal-semiconductor interface with the die attach, and some failures are accompanied by die-attach solder melting. We propose that nonuniform irradiance on the modules caused diode shunting due to extended periods of heat dissipation in the modules, because modules in this string were placed in two different orientations. In contrast, a second parallel module string of the same module type on the same rooftop with a unique plane of array did not show any diode failures. The thermal damage failure of melt-through was caused by the long-term current generated by overstressing of diodes that may have had crystalline and impurity defects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Current Role of the Total Artificial Heart in the Management of Advanced Heart Failure

The total artificial heart (TAH) is a form of mechanical circulatory support that involves resection of the native ventricles followed by placement of a device that can restore total pulmonary and systemic flow. Given the increasing burden of congestive heart failure and cardiovascular disease, the number of people in need of cardiac replacement therapy will continue to grow. Despite aggressive efforts to expand the donor pool, the number of heart transplants in the United States (US) has plateaued at less than 3000 per year. In addition, there is increasing recognition of the long-term complications of current generation left ventricular assist devices such as progressive aortic insufficiency, complications related to blood trauma, and both early and delayed right ventricular failure. These factors may serve to expand the role of the TAH in the treatment of patients with end-stage heart failure particularly if new generation devices are developed that are durable, have an improved safety profile, and are totally implantable. Purpose of Review: To review the role and current evidence of the use of the TAH in the management of advanced heart failure and discuss development of recent TAHs that may have an impact on the field in the near future. Recent Findings: Many patients that receive a heart transplant are bridged with a mechanical support device, most commonly a left ventricular assist device (LVAD). However, there is a small subset of patients with profound biventricular (BV) failure or structural abnormalities that preclude LVAD placement, who will require support with a biventricular assist device (BiVAD) or TAH. There are numerous studies showing the efficacy of the TAH in bridging to transplantation. Also, recent studies have shown equal rates of bridging to transplantation between patients receiving a TAH compared to a BiVAD. However, BiVAD support has a higher incidence of stroke in addition to complications related to the native heart such as arrhythmias and valve dysfunction. Currently, there are multiple new generation artificial hearts in both preclinical development and in clinical trials for both bridge to transplant and destination therapy. Summary: TAH have been shown to be effective for circulatory support in select patients with end-stage heart failure. Current LVADs are associated with significant long-term complications related to retention of the native heart and pump design. Many of these complications may be addressed by the increased use of cardiac replacement therapy, i.e., total artificial hearts. Multiple generations of both pulsatile and advanced design continuous flow TAH are under development which have the potential to expand the role of TAHs.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Computational micromechanics model based failure criteria for chopped carbon fiber sheet molding compound composites

Chopped carbon fiber sheet molding compound has a great potential in lightweight automotive, marine, and aerospace applications. One of the most challenging tasks is to predict the failure strength of the material due to its anisotropy and heterogeneity, as well as complex stress states in real-world working conditions. In this work, a novel constitutive model of carbon fiber chip is proposed to capture the pre- and post-failure behaviors under different loading modes. On this basis, we propose a new computational micromechanics model, which is calibrated and validated by uniaxial tensile, compressive, and in-plane shear experiments. Furthermore, a set of microstructures representative volume element (RVE) models under complex loading conditions are reconstructed to understand the relationship between the microstructure characteristics and the failure envelopes. Finally, several modified versions of classical failure criteria are proposed for anisotropic materials with consideration of the fiber orientation tensor. The modified Tsai-Wu failure criterion, which shows the best accuracy among all failure criteria, is highlighted in the comparative study.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mitigating commutation failures in HVDC systems with SFCL deployment

Commutation failures represent a prevalent issue encountered in line-commutated-converter high voltage direct current (LCC-HVDC) systems. As the widespread deployment of HVDC systems continues, the risk associated with commutation failures increases, posing a growing threat to power grids due to their potential to trigger severe consequences, including cascading failures and widespread blackouts. This research paper aims to address the significant issue of commutation failure within direct current (DC) systems through advocating for the use of resistive-type Superconducting Fault Current Limiters (R-SFCLs). To substantiate the efficacy of this proposed strategy, an array of simulations are executed using the PSCAD/EMTDC software. This comprehensive study investigates the performance characteristics of R-SFCLs configured with varying resistance values, scrutinizing their response under diverse fault resistance scenarios and distinct fault initiation times within the LCC-HVDC system. The outcomes of these simulations are that SFCLs confer significant advantages for mitigating commutation failures, surpassing traditional mitigation methods in terms of effectiveness. Consequently, SFCLs emerge as an optimal solution to prevent commutation failures in the HVDC systems.

Commutation failure↗
DOE OSTI2019

Type IV failure in weldment of creep resistant ferritic alloys: II. Creep fracture and lifetime prediction

The creep rupture behavior (Type IV failure) for weldments of creep strength enhanced ferritic steel is numerically analyzed, using an integrated microstructure- and micromechanics-based finite element model. To account for the large microstructure gradients across weldments, a two-dimensional digital microstructure is constructed based on the actual observed microstructure of ferritic steel weldment by using the Voronoi-tessellation method. According to the fracture mechanism studies and literature experimental observations, the Type IV failure is identified as an intergranular creep fracture in the fine-grained or intercritical heated affected zone (FGHAZ or ICHAZ). In the present study, the following micromechanics model is employed to determine the micromechanical and microstructural origins for the failure process above, accounting for the underlying physical fracture mechanisms at different length scales, including nucleation of grain boundary cavities, their growth by competition of grain boundary diffusion and grain interior creep, viscous grain boundary sliding, and the emergence of microcracks by coalescence and their evolution to the ultimate failure. The methodology demonstrates the capabilities in modeling the Type IV failure and providing quantitative creep rupture lifetime prediction which shows an excellent agreement with long-term creep experimental data for creep strength enhanced ferritic steels and their weldments. In particular, the drop-off in time to rupture at high temperatures and low stress levels in the creep rupture curves is quantitatively predicted, and the transition of failure mechanisms from creep-controlled to diffusion-controlled creep fracture mechanism is illustrated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Method for Estimating Time-Series PV Production Loss From Solar Tracking Failures

Solar tracking system failures can dramatically reduce photovoltaic (PV) system energy output through suboptimal irradiance capture and self-shading loss. Detecting tracker failures is not always straightforward; unlike other common PV system failures like inverter outages and blown fuses which take portions of a system completely offline, tracker failures only partially reduce output power and can go unnoticed as a result. Additionally, tracker failures can take one of several forms, each with their own loss characteristics. Here we present two methods of detecting tracker failure events from time-series production data and a method for estimating the associated production loss. Compared with existing detection methods, the proposed power-based detection method showed 0-17% reductions in Type I error rate depending on weather conditions. Here, the loss model estimated production loss with low error (mean bias error = -2.3 %, root-mean-squared error = 6%) in a rudimentary validation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Modeling Stress Strain Relationships and Predicting Failure Probabilities For Graphite Core Components

This project will implement inelastic constitutive models that will yield the requisite stress-strain information necessary for graphite component design. Accurate knowledge of stress states (both elastic and inelastic) is required to assess how close a nuclear core component is to failure. Strain states are needed to assess deformations in order to ascertain serviceability issues relating to failure, e.g., whether too much shrinkage has taken place for the core to function properly. Failure probabilities, as opposed to safety factors, are required in order to capture the bariability in failure strength in tensile regimes. The current stress state is used to predict the probability of failure. Stochastic failure models will be developed that can accommodate possible material anisotropy. This work will also model material damage (i.e., degradation of mechanical properties) due to radiation exposure. The team will design tools for components fabricated from nuclear graphite. These tools must readily interact with finite element software--in particular, COMSOL, the software algorithm currently being utilized by the Idaho National Laboratory. For the eleastic response of graphite, the team will adopt anisotropic stress-strain relationships available in COMSO. Data from the literature will be utilized to characterize the appropriate elastic material constants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning and Data Science to Advance Laboratory Earthquake Prediction and Illuminate the Mechanics of Precursors to Failure

Earthquakes represent one of our greatest natural hazards and in recent years human induced seismicity is adding to the threat. Even a modest improvement in the ability to forecast devastating large earthquakes or smaller shallow events associated with fluid injection could save thousands of lives and billions of dollars. Current efforts to forecast earthquakes are limited by knowledge of earthquake physics and hampered by a lack of reliable lab or field observations. However, recent work has provided a critical opportunity for advancement. We have found: 1) clear and consistent precursors prior to earthquake-like failure in the laboratory and 2) that lab earthquakes can be predicted using machine learning (ML). These works show that stick-slip failure events –the lab equivalent of earthquakes– are preceded by a cascade of micro-failure events that radiate elastic energy in a manner that foretells catastrophic failure. Remarkably, ML predicts the fault zone stress state, the failure time and in some cases the magnitude of lab earthquakes. In addition, the observations include clear precursors to failure in the form of changes in fault zone properties prior to lab earthquakes. Precursors have been observed in previous laboratory studies but their origin is poorly understood and their possible connection to ML based earthquake prediction is unknown. The work conducted under our project has dramatically expanded these efforts. We have developed an integrated data science approach to illuminate the physics of earthquake precursors and lab earthquake prediction. Our work has accelerated the development of ML, artificial intelligence (AI), and related data science approaches by providing massive data sets that are tightly connected to critical scientific problems and by bringing together leading subject matter experts and data scientists. Earthquake physics involves phenomena that are far from equilibrium. Our work has leveraged data science methods to illuminate these phenomena and investigate how they relate to earthquake prediction. In addition to a large database with many types of labeled events that is available to everyone, our work has advanced the fundamental understanding of seismic forecasting, earthquake physics, and fault rheology

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Develop and Connect TRISO Failure Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification to Fission Product Release Calculation Capability

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. Stress-based failure probability has been developed and analyzed to assess the integrity of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles during fuel life cycles. While simple, stress-based approaches to failure probability leveraging the Weibull statistical distribution entails a number of drawbacks when stress concentration occurs near crack tips, including finite element mesh size dependency. In this report, we use an interaction integral approach to the computation of stress intensity factors in functionally graded materials (FGM) for axisymmetric models. The inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) cracking induced silicon carbide (SiC) failure is one of the dominated failure modes in TRISO failure analysis. In this study, we consider a crack in the IPyC layer perpendicular to the SiC layer. The interface between these two TRISO layers is considered to be porous, which we simulate considering a transition of mechanical properties over the porous length. These aspects are considered in the computation of stress intensity factor (SIF) from a fracture mechanics approach and compared with the known stress-based failure probability approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Classification of Photovoltaic Failures with Hidden Markov Modeling, an Unsupervised Statistical Approach

Failure detection methods are of significant interest for photovoltaic (PV) site operators to help reduce gaps between expected and observed energy generation. Current approaches for field-based fault detection, however, rely on multiple data inputs and can suffer from interpretability issues. In contrast, this work offers an unsupervised statistical approach that leverages hidden Markov models (HMM) to identify failures occurring at PV sites. Using performance index data from 104 sites across the United States, individual PV-HMM models are trained and evaluated for failure detection and transition probabilities. This analysis indicates that the trained PV-HMM models have the highest probability of remaining in their current state (87.1% to 93.5%), whereas the transition probability from normal to failure (6.5%) is lower than the transition from failure to normal (12.9%) states. A comparison of these patterns using both threshold levels and operations and maintenance (O&M) tickets indicate high precision rates of PV-HMMs (median = 82.4%) across all of the sites. Although additional work is needed to assess sensitivities, the PV-HMM methodology demonstrates significant potential for real-time failure detection as well as extensions into predictive maintenance capabilities for PV.

classification↗
NASA NTRS1996

Relation of systemic and local muscle exercise capacity to skeletal muscle characteristics in men with congestive heart failure

OBJECTIVES. The present study was undertaken to further characterize changes in skeletal muscle morphology and histochemistry in congestive heart failure and to determine the relation of these changes to abnormalities of systemic and local muscle exercise capacity. BACKGROUND. Abnormalities of skeletal muscle appear to play a role in the limitation of exercise capacity in congestive heart failure, but information on the changes in muscle morphology and biochemistry and their relation to alterations in muscle function is limited. METHODS. Eighteen men with predominantly mild to moderate congestive heart failure (mean +/- SEM New York Heart Association functional class 2.6 +/- 0.2, ejection fraction 24 +/- 2%) and eight age- and gender-matched sedentary control subjects underwent measurements of peak systemic oxygen consumption (VO2) during cycle ergometry, resistance to fatigue of the quadriceps femoris muscle group and biopsy of the vastus lateralis muscle. RESULTS. Peak VO2 and resistance to fatigue were lower in the patients with heart failure than in control subjects (15.7 +/- 1.2 vs. 25.1 +/- 1.5 ml/min-kg and 63 +/- 2% vs. 85 +/- 3%, respectively, both p < 0.001). Patients had a lower proportion of slow twitch, type I fibers than did control subjects (36 +/- 3% vs. 46 +/- 5%, p = 0.048) and a higher proportion of fast twitch, type IIab fibers (18 +/- 3% vs. 7 +/- 2%, p = 0.004). Fiber cross-sectional area was smaller, and single-fiber succinate dehydrogenase activity, a mitochondrial oxidative marker, was lower in patients (both p < or = 0.034). Likewise, the ratio of average fast twitch to slow twitch fiber cross-sectional area was lower in patients (0.780 +/- 0.06 vs. 1.05 +/- 0.08, p = 0.019). Peak VO2 was strongly related to integrated succinate dehydrogenase activity in patients (r = 0.896, p = 0.001). Peak VO2, resistance to fatigue and strength also correlated significantly with several measures of fiber size, especially of fast twitch fibers, in patients. None of the skeletal muscle characteristics examined correlated with exercise capacity in control subjects. CONCLUSIONS. These results indicate that congestive heart failure is associated with changes in the characteristics of skeletal muscle and local as well as systemic exercise performance. There are fewer slow twitch fibers, smaller fast twitch fibers and lower succinate dehydrogenase activity. The latter finding suggests that mitochondrial content of muscle is reduced in heart failure and that impaired aerobic-oxidative capacity may play a role in the limitation of systemic exercise capacity.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2019

Failure of brittle micro-spherical shells embedded in elastomer matrix under indentation

Silicone elastomer filled with glass micro balloons (GMB) is an elastomeric syntactic foam used in electronics and component packaging for encapsulation, potting, stress-relief layer, and electrical insulation purposes. Under mechanical loading, the reinforcing phase, namely the GMBs embedded in the elastomer matrix, may break or delaminate, leading to internal damage and macroscale stiffness degradation, which can alter the material's protective capacity against mechanical shock and vibration. The degree of damage is controlled by the loading history, delamination, and failure behavior of the GMBs. In this work, we investigate the GMB failure behavior in this work wherein we present an indentation experiment to measure the force required to fail individual GMBs that are either embedded in the elastomer matrix or adhered to the surface of an elastomer layer. The indentation apparatus is augmented with an inverted optical microscope to enable in situ imaging of the GMB. Failure modes for the embedded or non-embedded GMBs are discussed based on the morphology of the broken GMBs and the measured failure forces. We also measure the adhesion energy between the glass balloon and the elastomer, based on which the possibility of delamination between the GMB and the surrounding elastomer matrix during the failure process is evaluated. Our results can facilitate the development of a failure criterion of GMBs which is necessary for establishing a physics-based constitutive model to describe the macroscopic damage mechanics of elastomeric syntactic foams.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Patterns of Local-Regional Failure in Completely Resected Stage IIIA(N2) Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Cases: Implications for Postoperative Radiation Therapy Clinical Target Volume Design

Purpose: To analyze patterns of local-regional failure (LRF) for completely resected stage IIIA(N2) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated in our hospital and to propose a clinical target volume (CTV) for postoperative radiation therapy (PORT) in these patients. Methods and Materials: From 2005 to 2011, consecutive patients with pT1-3N2 NSCLC who underwent complete resection in our hospital but who did not receive PORT were identified. The patterns of first LRF were assessed and evaluated as to whether these areas would be encompassed by our proposed PORT CTV. Results: With a median follow-up of 24 months, 173 of 250 patients (69.2%) experienced disease recurrence. Of the 54 patients with LRF as the first event, 48 (89%) had recurrence within the proposed PORT CTV, and 6 (11%) had failures occurring both within and outside the proposed CTV (all of which occurred in patients with right-lung cancer). Ninety-three percent of failure sites (104 of 112) would have been contained within the proposed PORT CTV. For left-sided lung cancer, the most common lymph node station failure site was 4R, followed by 7, 4L, 6, 10L, and 5. For right-sided lung cancer, the most common site was station 2R, followed by 10R, 4R, and 7. Conclusions: LRF following complete surgery was an important and potentially preventable pattern of failure in stage IIIA(N2) patients. Ipsilateral superior mediastinal recurrences dominated for right-sided tumors, whereas left-sided tumors frequently involved the bilateral superior mediastinum. Most of the LRF sites would have been covered by the proposed PORT CTV. A prospective investigation of patterns of failure after PORT (following our proposed CTV delineation guideline) is presently underway and will be reported in a separate analysis.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantitative Approach to Failure Mode and Effect Analysis for Linear Accelerator Quality Assurance

Purpose: To determine clinic-specific linear accelerator quality assurance (QA) TG-142 test frequencies, to maximize physicist time efficiency and patient treatment quality. Methods and Materials: A novel quantitative approach to failure mode and effect analysis is proposed. Nine linear accelerator-years of QA records provided data on failure occurrence rates. The severity of test failure was modeled by introducing corresponding errors into head and neck intensity modulated radiation therapy treatment plans. The relative risk of daily linear accelerator QA was calculated as a function of frequency of test performance. Results: Although the failure severity was greatest for daily imaging QA (imaging vs treatment isocenter and imaging positioning/repositioning), the failure occurrence rate was greatest for output and laser testing. The composite ranking results suggest that performing output and lasers tests daily, imaging versus treatment isocenter and imaging positioning/repositioning tests weekly, and optical distance indicator and jaws versus light field tests biweekly would be acceptable for non-stereotactic radiosurgery/stereotactic body radiation therapy linear accelerators. Conclusions: Failure mode and effect analysis is a useful tool to determine the relative importance of QA tests from TG-142. Because there are practical time limitations on how many QA tests can be performed, this analysis highlights which tests are the most important and suggests the frequency of testing based on each test's risk priority number.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Failure behavior of SiC/SiC composite tubes under strain rates similar to the pellet-cladding mechanical interaction phase of reactivity-initiated accidents

The mechanical response of a nuclear-grade silicon carbide fiber-reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) composite was investigated under mechanical loading conditions mimicking the pellet-cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI) phase of a reactivity-initiated accident (RIA). In a RIA, cladding deformation and failure can be induced by the rapid thermal expansion of the nuclear fuel. A pulse-controlled modified-burst test was used to investigate RIA-like PCMI scenarios on SiC/SiC composite samples at pulse widths from 12 to 100 ms.The strain-driven nature of the cladding sample deformation was due to the rapid internal pressurization and subsequent expansion of a secondary tube. A digital-image correlation technique was used to measure strains from the speckle-painted outer surface of the tubes. The failure strains of samples tested at slower rates, such as RIA event durations of 52 and 100 ms, showed good agreement with the literature-reported values for similar composites tested at slow strain rates. Additionally, the failure strain showed good agreement with reference expansion-due-to-compression tests at slow strain rate. However, a decrease in the failure strain was determined for the fast-rate (12 ms) tests. This indicated that the failure strain of these composites might be influenced by the strain rate during RIA-like events. In conclusion, the failure strains observed in the tests corresponded to local energy depositions of approximately 50 cal/g UO 2 from hot zero power, with an initial condition of pellet–cladding gap closure prior to the event. In-pile transient testing of these concepts that would result in hoop strain due to PCMI in the range of 0.5–1.0% is recommended.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Characterization of the correlation between the interfaces and failure behaviors for particle reinforced Mg–Li composites

The interfacial microstructure of SiC{sub p} or YAl{sub 2p} reinforced Mg–14Li–3Al matrix composites was comparatively characterized by scanning electron microscopy and electron probe microanalysis. A nanoindentation combined with scanning electron microscopy technique was used to characterize the interfacial mechanical properties between the reinforcements and matrix. The interfacial strength and failure behaviors for the composites were analyzed from the load–penetration curves and corresponding images. In situ tensile tests were used to observe the fracture and deformation processes with the aid of scanning electron microscopy. The results show that both the chemical and mechanical compatibilities between the YAl{sub 2} particles and LA143 matrix are better than those between the SiC particles and LA143 matrix. The interfacial breakage load for the SiC/LA143 composite is lower than that for the YAl{sub 2}/LA143 composite because of the worse chemical and mechanical compatibilities between the ceramic particles and metal matrix. Interfacial breakage is the main failure mechanism for the SiC/LA143 composite, while the particle breakage and matrix crack are the main failure mechanism for the YAl{sub 2}/LA143 composite. These may be related to the stronger interfacial bonding between the intermetallic particles and metal matrix. - Highlights: • The compatibility for YAl{sub 2} particle with LA143 matrix is better than SiC particle. • The strength of the YAl{sub 2}/LA143 interface is higher than the SiC/LA143 interface. • The main failure behavior for the SiC/LA143 composite is interfacial breakage. • The main failure behavior for YAl{sub 2}/LA143 composite is particle and matrix breakage. • The interfacial strength plays an important role on the composite failure behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting cell-to-cell failure propagation and limits of propagation in lithium-ion cell stacks

Thermal runaway of lithium-ion batteries is a risk that is magnified when stacks of lithium-ion cells are used for large scale energy storage. When limits of propagation can be identified so that systems can be designed to prevent large scale cascading failure even if a failure does occur, these systems will be safer. This work addresses the prediction of cell-to-cell failure propagation and the propagation limits in lithium-ion cell stacks to better understand and identify safe designs. A thermal-runaway model is presented based on recent developments in thermochemical source terms. It is noted that propagating failure is characterized by temperatures above which calorimetry data is available. Results show high temperature propagating failure predictions are too rapid unless an intra-particle diffusion limit is included, introducing a Damköhler number limiter into the rate expression. This new model form is evaluated against cell-to-cell failure propagation where the end cell of a stack is forced into thermal runaway through a nail-induced short circuit. Limits of propagation for this configuration are identified. Results show cell-to-cell propagation predictions are consistent with measurements over a range of cell states of charge and with the introduction of metal plates between cells to add system heat capacity representative of structural members. This consistency extends from scenarios where propagation occurs through scenarios where propagation is prevented.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deformation Precursors to Catastrophic Failure in Rocks

Forecasting the timing of catastrophic failure, such as crustal earthquakes, has been a central concern for centuries. Such forecasting requires identifying signals that evolve or accelerate in the precursory phase leading to failure, and the subset of signals that may be detected in the crust. We develop machine learning models to predict the proximity of catastrophic failure in synchrotron X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on rocks using characteristics of evolving fracture networks. We then examine the characteristics that most strongly influence the model results, and thus may be considered the best predictors of the proximity of macroscopic failure. Finally, the resulting suite of predictive parameters underscores the importance of dilation in the precursory phase leading to catastrophic failure. The results indicate that the evolution of the strain energy density field may provide more robust predictions of the proximity of failure than other existing metrics of rock deformation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗