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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Fission Product Quantification and Burnup Analysis via Gamma Spectrometry of the AGR-5/6/7 TRISO Fuel Experiment

Five capsules containing varying configurations of TRISO fuel compacts were irradiated in the most recent Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) TRISO test campaign, AGR-5/6/7. As part of the post-irradiation examination (PIE) of this work all the fuel compacts and capsule graphite holders were measured with the Precision Gamma Scanner (PGS) to determine isotopic activities and locations using gamma spectrometry. Measuring the compacts allowed for the comparison of physics model depletion calculations with the measured compact activity to validate models. These measurements also are used to find compacts of interest with low fission product retention that may be tested in subsequent PIE. Measurements of the holders can confirm fission product distribution and migration. Of the isotopes measured, Cs-137 and Cs-134 were used to estimate location of failed particles as well as determine a measured burnup estimation. Results from Capsule 1 compacts and the holder indicate many fuel particle failures occurred. There are high amounts of cesium in the holder near Stack 9 of Capsule 1 that corresponds to low fractions?measured-to-calculated (M/C) ratio?of cesium remaining in those compacts. All other capsules had cesium retention ratios near 1. The isotope 110mAg had less consistent results. Capsule 2 compacts exhibited a M/C of 0.20, much lower than anticipated for the temperatures these compacts underwent. Capsule 3 experienced much higher temperatures, >1300C and had an average M/C of 0.75. These are the opposite results than what was predicted by past AGR experiments for the relationship between temperature and isotope retention. Capsule 4 and 5 showed good fission product retention and agreement with the physics model predictions. The burnup results from the PGS measurements showed strong agreement between the physics models and the measured values. Using a ratio of Cs-134/Cs-137 to calculate the burnup match closely with the physics models. Additionally, the Cs-137 burnup results were less accurate but extremely close to the model results.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reliability of Copper Inverse Opal Surfaces for Extreme-Heat-Flux Micro-Coolers in Low-Global-Warming-Potential Refrigerant R-1233zd Pool Boiling Experiments

This presentation provides a brief snapshot of the InterPACK paper InterPACK2023-113781. The paper explores copper inverse opal (CIO) surface reliability in pool boiling experiments in water and a new, low-global-warming-potential (GWP = 1) hydrofluoroolefin (HFO) refrigerant R-1233zd. The CIO-based structure is intended to develop enhanced two-phase heat transfer surfaces for extreme-heat-flux (approximately 1 kW/cm2) micro-coolers. In this study, a limited number of pool boiling experiments were performed using water and HFO-1233zd fluid, and the reliability of the CIO-based surfaces was evaluated. Critical heat flux (CHF) values in HFO-1233zd at 40 Degrees Celsius to 45 Degrees Celsius saturation temperatures and the corresponding saturation pressures were also measured. The CHF values with the refrigerant are significantly lower compared to those with water, but the refrigerant allows for a wider usable temperature range in the end application of the micro-coolers and is not limited to data centers with controlled ambient conditions. Reliability experiments with CIO surface samples - involving pool boiling with water on the CIO surfaces for approximately 48 hours and with HFO-1233zd for 144 hours - showed no structural degradation of the enhanced surface or any significant performance drop in heat transfer coefficients. The CIO surface samples in water were oxidized, most likely due to the presence of air in water and in the experimental vessel.

critical heat flux↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of an Ultrahigh-bandwidth Phase Contrast Imaging System for detection of electron scale turbulence and Gigahertz Radio-Frequency Waves

The study of waves and turbulence is vital to the development of future reactor-grade plasma devices developed in the quest for fusion energy. These fluctuations are responsible for moving heat and particles across the magnetic field, and a predictive understanding of them is needed to achieve the density and temperature required to sustain a plasma fusion reaction. While many techniques have been developed for measuring waves and fluctuations, every measurement method has limitations. There are relatively few techniques for measuring very high frequency fluctuations, such as radio frequency waves injected to heat the plasma, unstable waves driven by suprathermal particles, or short wavelength electrostatic waves driven by electron temperature or density gradients. The present project builds upon the proven phase contrast imaging (PCI) technique to extend the response of the diagnostic by orders of magnitude in frequency and almost a factor of ten in spatial resolution. PCI provides a measurement of electron density based on small angle scattering of a CO-2 laser beam by using optical techniques to render a phase shift as an intensity change on a detector. Due to the telecommunications revolution, technological development by manufacturers has focused on components in the near -infrared, so that high- quality lasers and detectors at 1.55 µm are readily available. Shifting PCI design to a new, shorter wavelength has numerous advantages and challenges. Similar detector performance is available with room-temperature arrays with GHz bandwidth, while the detector arrays for 10.6 µm required liquid nitrogen cooling and were therefore limited to a bandwidth of about 1 MHz. Shifting to a shorter wavelength reduces the angle at which the laser beam scatters off of plasma waves, allowing more such scattered components to pass through the aperture of the vacuum vessel port and be collected by the PCI, which increases the spatial resolution. Concomitant with these benefits, various questions of performance arise. At shorter laser wave- length, the sensitivity to mirror and lens quality is increased, the contribution of the laser to the overall system noise is increased, and the sensitivity to vibrations is increased. The custom optical components at the heart of the PCI technique were required to be properly scaled for the shorter wavelength, so fabrication technologies needed to be explored. This project was designed to show that a low noise, high response PCI system at 1.55 µm could be constructed and operated, and then to quantify potential issues to allow extrapolation to a full-size production system providing physics measurements on a large plasma device. The first stage, producing the custom optical component called a Phase Plate, was successfully achieved using two methods. First, an easily reproduced masking and coating technique was able to produce good phase plates with the required parameters. Second, a nanofabrication technique was found to produce extremely high quality phase plates at a competitive price. The PCI constructed with the new phase plates and 1.55 µm laser was found to provide excellent wavelength measurements with the theoretically expected response. The sensitivity to optical surface quality was found to be in line with previous measurements at 10.6 µm. The observed signal-to-noise ratio was similar to the theoretically expected value. The effect of vibrations on PCI was studied with the first measurement of the effect of beam motion on PCI response and comparison to theory, allowing for a quantitative prediction of the effect of vibrations on a production PCI system and the requirements for improved beam stabilization. PCI is an extremely cost-effective method to provide a low noise, absolutely calibrated measurement of plasma fluctuations across a wide spatial scale. This project has shown that a 1.55 µm PCI using modern techniques and components is less expensive than the 10.6 µm PCI of a few years ago, with the largest savings in phase plate fabrication and the infrared detector array.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Open-Loop Control of Adjustable Tuned Mass Dampers for Floating Wind Turbine Platforms: Preprint

Floating offshore wind turbines have several advantages over their land-based counterparts, including access to stronger, more consistent winds and proximity to population centers. However, increased costs from the platform have been a challenge inhibiting their widespread adoption. New damping technologies with tunable target frequencies and damping ratios promise a greater degree of control over platform motions, allowing hulls to be designed smaller and reducing the overall cost of the turbines. In this work, a control strategy is proposed for these adjustable tuned mass dampers (TMDs). A frequency-domain model of the system is developed, from which response amplitude operators (RAOs) for the platform's rigid-body modes can be obtained for different natural frequencies and damping ratios of the dampers. Using these RAOs, and JONSWAP spectrums of operational and extreme sea states, the performance of the various damper settings are compared by evaluating the standard deviation of a rigid-body motion of interest (platform pitch or heave). By finding the optimal damper setting for a range of representative design load cases (DLCs), a lookup function is made to return the damper target frequency given the peak period of the sea state. To determine the current sea state, we propose a simple estimator that uses wave measurements (e.g., from a measurement buoy) to determine the peak period and significant wave height. The significant wave height is determined using the statistics of the past 100 seconds of wave elevation information and the peak period is computed using a frequency locked loop. Initial results show that we can use these estimated values to control the TMD natural frequency with an open loop controller. The controlled system is tested in a range of environmental conditions determined by the International Electrotechnical Commission design load cases (DLCs), which include normal and extreme wind and wave models. In these tests, we compare the performance of 4 cases: (1) no TMD, (2) a constant TMD based on the worst case DLC, (3) a controlled TMD based on known wind and wave environments, and (4) a real-time controlled TMD using estimated wind and wave environments. The effect of hull-based TMD control is also compared to changes in traditional wind turbine control via blade pitch.

control↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Segment Decentralized Control Strategies for Renewables-Rich Microgrids in Extreme Conditions

Microgrids provide a promising approach to accommodating various distributed energy resources (DERs), while requiring significant communication infrastructures that may be affected by extreme conditions such as natural disasters and cyber-attacks. In this paper, a fully decentralized control strategy without the need for communication is proposed for islanded microgrids with high renewables penetration. First, special multi-segment power/frequency characteristic curves are designed, so that different DERs can be automatically coordinated in a prioritized manner such as renewables first to maintain power balance while DER frequencies are regulated at their reference values. Second, piecewise linear served load versus frequency models are designed to prioritize loads according to their significance, so that only noncritical loads will be curtailed as needed while critical loads are supplied without any interruptions during power deficiency. The proposed strategy can effectively deal with various normal and extreme system conditions including 100% renewables penetration, loads and renewables variations, power deficiencies requiring load curtailments, disconnection of existing DERs, connection of new DERs as well as network sectionalization and reconfiguration. As a result, the proposed control strategy is validated in the real-time digital simulator (RTDS) model of the IIT Campus Microgrid to demonstrate its effectiveness in enhancing the resiliency of renewables-rich microgrids in extreme conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design Methodologies for Integrated Quantum Frequency Processors

We report frequency-encoded quantum information offers intriguing opportunities for quantum communications and networking, with the quantum frequency processor paradigm—based on electro-optic phase modulators and Fourier-transform pulse shapers—providing a path for scalable construction of quantum gates. Yet all experimental demonstrations to date have relied on discrete fiber-optic components that occupy significant physical space and impart appreciable loss. In this article, we introduce a model for the design of quantum frequency processors comprising microring resonator-based pulse shapers and integrated phase modulators. We estimate the performance of single and parallel frequency-bin Hadamard gates, finding high fidelity values that extend to frequency bins with relatively wide bandwidths. By incorporating multi-order filter designs as well, we explore the limits of tight frequency spacings, a regime extremely difficult to obtain in bulk optics. Overall, our model is general, simple to use, and extendable to other material platforms, providing a much-needed design tool for future frequency processors in integrated photonics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transverse Rupture Strength of Uranium Dioxide

Uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) fuel is used as fuel in light water reactors (LWRs). While the fuel pellet is technically the first engineering barrier for radionuclide release, pellet fracturing at intermediate- to high-burnup values releases fission gases into the fuel rod plenum [1, 2]. Therefore, the true engineering barrier is the fuel cladding, which performs very well in LWR environments [3]. The extreme temperature gradients generated by fission energy and the low thermal conductivity of UO 2 quickly induce radial cracking in UO 2 during operation [4]. Cracks in the fuel provide opportunities for fuel relocation, increased fission gas release, and pellet-cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI) [5]. The ability to predict and engineer the fracture of UO 2 fuel pellets using modern computational tools is therefore a key engineering goal that has been the focus of ongoing experimental and computational efforts [6, 7]. Accurate predictions of fuel pellet cracking during operation requires knowledge of more complex phenomena, but improved understanding of the fundamental fracture behavior of unirradiated UO 2 is first necessary.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Strong gravity extruding peaks in speed of sound profiles of massive neutron stars

The speed of sound squared (SSS) s 2 in massive neutron stars (NSs) characterizes not only the stiffness of supradense neutron-rich matter within but also equivalently properties of the curved geometry due to the strong-field gravity and matter-geometry coupling. A peaked density or radius profile of s 2 has been predicted for massive NSs using various NS equation of state (EOS) models. However, the nature, cause, location and size of the peak in s 2 profiles are still very EOS model dependent. In this work, we investigate systematically s 2 profiles in massive NSs in a new approach that is independent of the nuclear EOS model and without any presumption about the NS structure and/or composition. In terms of the small quantities (reduced radius, the energy density and pressure scaled by their central values), we perform double-element perturbative expansions in solving perturbatively the scaled Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff (TOV) equations and analyzing s 2 profiles from the Newtonian limit to the general relativistic (GR) case. The GR term in the TOV equations plays a twofold role: it compresses NS matter and modifies the pressure/energy density ratio from small values in Newtonian stars showing no s 2 peak to large ones for massive NSs possessing a peak in their s 2 profiles, and eventually takes away the peak in extremely compact/massive NSs approaching the causality limit. In particular, the peaked behavior in s 2 is expected to emerge near the center of massive NSs like PSR J⁢0740+6620, while a sharp phase transition is unlikely to occur there. Furthermore, these features revealed from our analyses are universal as they are intrinsic properties of the GR stellar structure equations independent of the still very uncertain EOS of supradense neutron-rich matter in NSs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extreme tensile strain states in La 0.7 Ca 0.3 MnO 3 membranes

A defining feature of emergent phenomena in complex oxides is the competition and cooperation between ground states. In manganites, the balance between metallic and insulating phases can be tuned by the lattice; extending the range of lattice control would enhance the ability to access other phases. We stabilized uniform extreme tensile strain in nanoscale La 0.7 Ca 0.3 MnO 3 membranes, exceeding 8% uniaxially and 5% biaxially. Uniaxial and biaxial strain suppresses the ferromagnetic metal at distinctly different strain values, inducing an insulator that can be extinguished by a magnetic field. Electronic structure calculations indicate that the insulator consists of charge-ordered Mn 4+ and Mn 3+ with staggered strain-enhanced Jahn-Teller distortions within the plane. This highly tunable strained membrane approach provides a broad opportunity to design and manipulate correlated electron states.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solar+Storage for Household Back-up Power: Implications of building efficiency, load flexibility, and electrification for backup during long-duration power interruptions [Slides]

The study analyzes the evolving role of solar+storage for home backup power during long-duration power interruptions. In particular, it evaluates how required storage sizing is impacted as homes become more efficient, flexible, and electrified. The study relies on NREL’s ResStock building modeling platform to create statistically representative distributions of the existing building stock in ten locations across the United States. It then shows how the amount battery storage required for backup power rises or falls as a series of building envelope efficiency, load flexibility, and electrification measures are applied across the building stock in each region. The study also includes sensitivities to show how backup power requirements are impacted by the timing and duration of power interruptions, and explores variation in backup power requirements across the building stock within each study location. The results demonstrate the value of pairing solar+storage with efficiency upgrades, smart home controls, and (in mild winter climates) efficient heat pump retrofits. That value comes in the form of reducing the amount of storage required and/or extending the range of interruption conditions over which a given system can provide backup power (i.e., more extreme weather and/or longer interruptions). Heat pumps in cold-weather climates can pose a challenge for solar+storage backup power, given the amount of storage required, though are a vast improvement over electric-resistance heating. Retaining existing fossil-based heating systems for occasional use during power interruptions, as either the primary or supplementary source of heat, can mitigate this challenge. Other forms of building electrification (e.g., cooking and water heating) generally have marginal impacts on backup battery sizing, given their relatively small energy demand.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Determination of Sodium Abundance Ratio from Low-resolution Stellar Spectra and Its Applications

We present a method to determine sodium abundance ratios ([Na/Fe]) using the Na i D doublet lines in low-resolution (R ~ 2000) stellar spectra. As stellar Na i D lines are blended with those produced by the interstellar medium, we developed a technique for removing the interstellar Na I D lines using the relationship between extinction, which is proportional to E(B – V), and the equivalent width of the interstellar Na i D absorption lines. When measuring [Na/Fe], we also considered corrections for nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) effects. Comparisons with data from high-resolution spectroscopic surveys suggest that the expected precision of [Na/Fe] from low-resolution spectra is better than 0.3 dex for stars with [Fe/H] > –3.0. We also present a simple application employing the estimated [Na/Fe] values for a large number of stellar spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). After classifying the SDSS stars into Na-normal, Na-high, and Na-extreme, we explore their relation to stars in Galactic globular clusters (GCs). We find that while the Na-high SDSS stars exhibit a similar metallicity distribution function (MDF) to that of the GCs, indicating that the majority of such stars may have originated from GC debris, the MDF of the Na-normal SDSS stars follows that of typical disk and halo stars. As there is a high fraction of carbon-enhanced metal-poor stars among the Na-extreme stars, they may have a non-GC origin, perhaps due to mass-transfer events from evolved binary companions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid Particle Swarm-Interpolation Algorithm for Improved Critical Experiment Design

The typical goal of designing a critical experiment is twofold: a system that is both critical and optimized for some other value. This value could be an energy-integrated sensitivity, percent fissions in a certain energy range, or some other value that can be calculated by a transport code. By simulating different combinations of reflector, moderator, and fuel thicknesses a designer can identify such a desirable configuration. The domain of all possible combinations of these thicknesses is referred to as the experiment search space. As more dimensions are added, the search space increases in size exponentially. For a three-dimensional case, which includes three thickness values between zero and ten centimeters to the nearest tenth of a millimeter, a total of 1,000 3 , configurations exists. Rather than check each configuration individually, which would be extremely computationally expensive, it has been shown to be more efficient to use a conventional particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to identify critical and optimal configurations. This work presents the theory and implementation of a novel hybrid PSO interpolation algorithm to perform these optimizations faster than a conventional PSO algorithm. To demonstrate this, an example optimization will be carried out by the conventional and hybrid PSO algorithms and their performances will be compared.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Artificial intelligence for materials research at extremes

Abstract Materials development is slow and expensive, taking decades from inception to fielding. For materials research at extremes, the situation is even more demanding, as the desired property combinations such as strength and oxidation resistance can have complex interactions. Here, we explore the role of AI and autonomous experimentation (AE) in the process of understanding and developing materials for extreme and coupled environments. AI is important in understanding materials under extremes due to the highly demanding and unique cases these environments represent. Materials are pushed to their limits in ways that, for example, equilibrium phase diagrams cannot describe. Often, multiple physical phenomena compete to determine the material response. Further, validation is often difficult or impossible. AI can help bridge these gaps, providing heuristic but valuable links between materials properties and performance under extreme conditions. We explore the potential advantages of AE along with decision strategies. In particular, we consider the problem of deciding between low-fidelity, inexpensive experiments and high-fidelity, expensive experiments. The cost of experiments is described in terms of the speed and throughput of automated experiments, contrasted with the human resources needed to execute manual experiments. We also consider the cost and benefits of modeling and simulation to further materials understanding, along with characterization of materials under extreme environments in the AE loop. Graphical abstract AI sequential decision-making methods for materials research: Active learning, which focuses on exploration by sampling uncertain regions, Bayesian and bandit optimization as well as reinforcement learning (RL), which trades off exploration of uncertain regions with exploitation of optimum function value. Bayesian and bandit optimization focus on finding the optimal value of the function at each step or cumulatively over the entire steps, respectively, whereas RL considers cumulative value of the labeling function, where the latter can change depending on the state of the system (blue, orange, or green).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dominant effect of anharmonicity on the equation of state and thermal conductivity of MgO under extreme conditions

Understanding heat transfer in the earth mantle region is of great scientific interest but highly challenging due to dissimilar conditions from our daily lives. Thermal conductivity of highly pressured and thermally activated materials can be completely different from that at ambient condition. In this study we calculate the equation of state and thermal conductivity of cubic crystalline MgO, a major component of the mantle, in such an environment. It is shown that the material properties are not accurately captured unless rigorous treatment of anharmonicity of phonon vibrational motion is explicitly applied. To predict renormalized phonon dispersion relations, interatomic force constants of high-order expansion are required, especially at elevated temperature. The anharmonicity plays an increasingly substantial role for regulating volume expansion as temperature rises, because the Gibbs free energy of MgO considerably deviates from what was predicted by the quasiharmonic approximation. We find that the lattice thermal conductivity of MgO and the heat transfer of the earth's mantle are reliably estimated only when both the temperature-dependent renormalization of phonon frequencies and four-phonon scattering effects are taken into consideration. We map the characteristics at Geotherm into contour diagrams in which equilibrium volumes and the thermal conductivities are described as functions of temperature and pressure. Furthermore, the thermal conductivity values of MgO in this study are smaller than those in previous theoretical studies due to the additional incorporation of four-phonon scatterings in the calculations. Specifically, deviation between the values in previous studies and in this study becomes larger as thermodynamic variables reach those near the core-mantle boundary. For instance, thermal conductivities of 52.15 and 23.67 Wm -1 K -1 are estimated at ambient and extreme conditions (T = 4000K and P = 135 GPa), respectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Simulation of Daily Suspended Sediment Concentration Using Multivariate Copulas

Estimation of daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is required for water resources and environment management. In this paper, a copula-based stochastic method was proposed for daily SSC simulation. Here, the multivariate copula function, constructed based on a bivariate copula and two bivariate conditional probability distributions, was used to model the temporal and cross dependence structures in daily SSCs. Then, the daily SSCs were generated by sampling from the multivariate conditional distribution. As a result, synthetic long-term SSCs data beyond the limited observation period can be provided for water resources managers, which plays a critical role in accurately estimating frequency and magnitude of extreme SSCs events. The proposed method was under rigorous examination by applying to a case study at Pingshan station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Results showed that the generated daily SSC sequences not only had a high degree of accuracy in preserving the statistical characteristics of the daily SSC observations, but also captured both the temporal correlation and the cross-correlation between the daily streamflow and daily SSC. Specifically, the average daily relative error values corresponding to mean, standard deviation, skewness, lag-1 temporal correlation, and cross correlation were 0.87%, 4.24%, 7.52%, 0.51% and 2.02%, respectively. The multivariate copula framework proposed here can accurately and efficiently generate long-term daily SSC data for water resources management such as frequency analysis and risk assessment of extreme SSC events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extremely Durable Concrete using Methane Decarbonization Nanofiber Co-products with Hydrogen

This project successfully developed a scalable, low-cost co-production process for hydrogen (H₂) and carbon nanofibers (CNFs) using methane through catalytic chemical vapor deposition (CVD). CNFs are high-value materials with exceptional mechanical, electrical, and chemical properties, while hydrogen is a critical clean energy resource. By leveraging vapor deposition to create highly dispersed metal catalysts, this work addressed the dual challenge of producing low-cost hydrogen and enhancing the durability of concrete using co-produced CNFs. Unlike prior approaches, which required separating the carbon product from the catalyst, this innovative method integrated the carbon product, catalyst, and silica support as a crack-bridging additive for Portland cement. This novel application aimed to advance the performance of high-performance concrete (HPC) by improving its flexural toughness, durability, and resistance to environmental degradation.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Temperature and Precipitation in Earth System Models With 3D Diffusion Models

Earth system models (ESMs) are essential for understanding the interaction between human activities and the Earth's climate. However, the computational demands of ESMs often limit the number of simulations that can be run, hindering the robust analysis of risks associated with extreme weather events. While low-cost climate emulators have emerged as an alternative to emulate ESMs and enable rapid analysis of future climate, many of these emulators only provide output on at most a monthly frequency. This temporal resolution is insufficient for analyzing events that require daily characterization, such as heat waves or heavy precipitation. We propose using diffusion models, a class of generative deep learning models, to effectively downscale ESM output from a monthly to a daily frequency. Trained on a handful of ESM realizations, reflecting a wide range of radiative forcings, our DiffESM model takes monthly mean precipitation or temperature as input, and is capable of producing daily values with statistical characteristics close to ESM output. Combined with a low-cost emulator providing monthly means, this approach requires only a small fraction of the computational resources needed to run a large ensemble. We evaluate model behavior using a number of extreme metrics, showing that DiffESM closely matches the spatio-temporal behavior of the ESM output it emulates in terms of the frequency and spatial characteristics of phenomena such as heat waves, dry spells, or rainfall intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗