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At least 307 records · Page 17

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NASA NTRS1993

Temporal analysis of the October 1989 proton flare using computerized anatomical models

The GOES-7 time history data of hourly averaged integral proton fluxes at various particle kinetic energies are analyzed for the solar proton event that occurred between October 19 and 29, 1989. By analyzing the time history data, the dose rates which may vary over many orders of magnitude in the early phases of the flare can be estimated as well as the cumulative dose as a function of time. Basic transport calculations are coupled with detailed body organ thickness distributions from computerized anatomical models to estimate dose rates and cumulative doses to 20 critical body organs. For a 5-cm-thick water shield, cumulative skin, eye, and blood-forming-organ dose equivalents of 1.27, 1.23, and 0.41 Sv, respectively, are estimated. These results are approximately 40-50 percent less than the widely used 0- and 5-cm slab dose estimates. The risk of cancer incidence and mortality are also estimated for astronauts protected by various water shield thicknesses.

Simonsen, L. C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Semi-Supervised Eigenbasis Novelty Detection

Recent discoveries in high-time-resolution radio astronomy data have focused attention on a new class of events. Fast transients are rare pulses of radio frequency energy lasting from microseconds to seconds that might be produced by a variety of exotic astrophysical phenomena. For example, X-ray bursts, neutron stars, and active galactic nuclei are all possible sources of short-duration, transient radio signals. It is difficult to anticipate where such signals might appear, and they are most commonly discovered through analysis of high-time- resolution data that had been collected for other purposes. Transients are often faint and difficult to detect, so improved detection algorithms can directly benefit the science yield of all such commensal monitoring. A new detection algorithm learns a low-dimensional linear manifold for describing the normal data. High reconstruction error indicates a novel signal that does not match the patterns of normal data. One unsupervised portion of the manifold model adapts its representation in response to recent data. A second supervised portion of the model is made of a basis trained in advance using labeled examples of RFI; this prevents false positives due to these events. For a linear model, an orthonormalization operation is used to combine these bases prior to the anomaly detection decision. Another novel aspect of the approach lies in combining basis vectors learned in an unsupervised, online fashion from the data stream with supervised basis vectors learned in advance from known examples of false alarms. Adaptive, data-driven detection is achieved that is also informed by existing domain knowledge about signals that may be statistically anomalous, but are not interesting and should therefore be ignored. The method was evaluated using data from the Parkes Multibeam Survey. This data set was originally collected to search for pulsars, which are astronomical sources that emit radio pulses at regular periods. However, several non-pulsar anomalies have recently been discovered in this dataset, making it a compelling test case. By explicitly filtering known false alarm patterns, the approach yields significantly better performance than current transient detection methods.

Wagstaff, Kiri L.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Basis for interpretation regarding the ages of the Serenitatis, Imbrium and Orientale events

One of the most important objectives of lunar study is to relate the lunar sample data to important lunar events. This paper utilizes as the basis of interpretation consideration of the following: (1) photogeologic data, (2) the choice of a cratering model, (3) estimates of temperature of impact ejecta and shock-induced heating, (4) petrologic data of lunar breccias and their thermal and shock history, and (5) meaningful age measurements. Both the author's interpretations and alternative views are discussed. The age of the Serenitatis event is not yet known. The interpreted age of the Imbrium event is between 3.90 and 3.84 Ga. The age of the Orientale event is 3.84 Ga.

Chao, E. C. T.↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Fast Evolution of SN 2010bh Associated with XRF 100316D

The first observational evidence of a connection between supernovae (SNe) and gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) was found about a decade ago. Since then, only half a dozen spectroscopically confirmed associations have been discovered and XRF 1003160 associated with the type-Ic SN 20lObh is among the latest. Aims. We constrain the progenitor radius, the host-galaxy extinction, and the physical parameters of the explosion of XRF l00316D/SN 20lObh at z 0.059. We study the SN brightness and colours in the context of GRB-SNe. Methods. We began observations with the Gamma-Ray burst Optical and Near-infrared Detector (GROND) 12 hours after the GRB trigger and continued until 80 days after the burst. GROND provided excellent photometric data in six filter bands covering a wavelength range from approximately 350 to 1800 nm, significantly expanding the pre-existing data set for this event. Combining GROND and Swift data, the early broad-band spectral energy distribution (SED) is modelled with a blackbody and afterglow component attenuated by dust and gas absorption. The temperature and radius evolution of the thermal component are analysed and combined with earlier measurements available from the literature. Templates of SN 1998bw are fitted to the SN itself to directly compare the lightcurve properties. Finally, a two-component parametrized model is fitted to the quasi-bolometric light curve. which delivers physical parameters of the explosion. Results. The best-fit models to the broad-band SEDs imply moderate reddening along the line of sight through the host galaxy (A(sub v.host = 1.2 +/- 0.1 mag). Furthermore, the parameters of the blackbody component reveal a cooling envelope at an apparent initial radius of 7 x 10(exp 11) cm, which is compatible with a dense wind surrounding a Wolf-Rayet star. A multicolor comparison shows that SN 2010bh is 60 - 70% as bright as SN 1998bw. Reaching maximum brightness at 8 - 9 days after the burst in the blue bands, SN 20lObh proves to be the most rapidly evolving GRB-SNe to date. Modelling of the quasi-bolometric light curve yields M(sub Ni) = 0.21 +/- 0.03 solar M and M(sub ej) = 2.6 +/- 0.2 solar M, typical of values within the GRB-SN population. The kinetic energy is E(sub k) = (2.4 +/- 0.7) x 10(exp 52) erg, which is making this SN the second most energetic GRB-SN after SN 1998bw. Conclusions. This supernova has one of the earliest peaks ever recorded and thereafter fades more rapidly than other GRB-SNe, hypernovae, or typical type-Ic SNe. This could be explained by a thin envelope expanding at very high velocities, which is therefore unable to retain the gamma-rays that would prolong the duration of the SN event.

Olivares E., F.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Shoshone River Water Resources II: Quantifying Sediment Input in the Shoshone River in Wyoming using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for Enhanced Water Quality Monitoring

The Willwood Dam, an irrigation diversion dam located on the Shoshone River (Wyoming, USA), has faced ongoing issues with sediment accumulation and needs frequent sediment flushing to remain operable. However, high suspended sediment levels during flushing events have negatively impacted downstream aquatic ecology and recreational opportunities. To address these problems, DEVELOP partnered with the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality, Shoshone River Partners, and United States Geologic Survey. During term one, the team developed a workflow to map turbidity using PlanetScope imagery, analyze time series precipitation data, and create landcover maps. For this term, we focused on three methods to gain a better understanding of sediment sources: 1) improving remote sensing of turbidity, 2) modeling sediment transport within the watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and 3) conducting a snow cover time series analysis using Suomi NPP VIIRS imagery. Through remote sensing, we found Dry Creek/Homesteader Creek and Penney Gulch/Rough Gulch had the highest concentration sediment plumes. The SWAT+ model created a high-resolution grid model of the watershed, identifying high sedimentation in the western and southern subbasins but displayed low-correlated calibration and validation results due to limited observed data. We analyzed the snow cover extent alongside other hydrologic variables and found that snow melt events correlated with increases in suspended sediment concentration and turbidity values. Coupling remote sensing with hydrological modeling will give watershed managers a new perspective on high-priority regions for implementation of remediation to reduce the sediment build-up at the Willwood Dam.

Suspended Sediment↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Large-Scale Search for Evidence of Quasi-Periodic Pulsations in Solar Flares

The nature of quasi-periodic pulsations (QPP) in solar flares is poorly constrained, and critically the general prevalence of such signals in solar flares is unknown. Therefore, we perform a large-scale search for evidence of signals consistent with QPP in solar flares, focusing on the 1300 s timescale. We analyze 675 M- and X-class flares observed by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series in 18 soft X-rays between 2011 February 1 and 2015 December 31. Additionally, over the same era we analyze Fermi/Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) 1525 keV X-ray data for each of these flares associated with a Fermi/GBM solar flare trigger, a total of 261 events. Using a model comparison method, we determine whether there is evidence for a substantial enhancement in the Fourier power spectrum that may be consistent with a QPP signature, based on three tested models; a power-law plus a constant, a broken power-law plus constant, and a power-law-plus-constant with an additional QPP signature component. From this, we determine that approx. 30% of GOES events and approx. 8% of Fermi/GBM events show strong signatures consistent with classical interpretations of QPP. For the remaining events either two or more tested models cannot be strongly distinguished from each other, or the events are well-described by single power-law or broken power-law Fourier power spectra. For both instruments, a preferred characteristic time-scale of approx. 5-30 s was found in the QPP-like events, with no dependence on flare magnitude in either GOES or GBM data. We also show that individual events in the sample show similar characteristic time-scales in both GBM and GOES data sets. We discuss the implications of these results for our understanding of solar flares and possible QPP mechanisms.

Inglis, A. R.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Preliminary findings of the Viking gas exchange experiment and a model for Martian surface chemistry

Earlier results reported from the Viking Lander-1 experiment are reexamined and interpreted in terms of a model of the Martian soil surface morphology and chemistry. Major events in the gas exchange experiment (GEX) first cycle are tabulated and data are presented on the sample processing and transport environments experienced by the soil samples. Oxygen and CO2 evolved from humidified Martian soil in GEX and slight changes in N2 present are investigated. A soil model involving iron oxide coating on silicate material is entertained to yield a mechanistic explanation of the experimental findings, and invocation of biotic processes is eschewed.

Oyama, V. I.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A system performance throughput model applicable to advanced manned telescience systems

As automated space systems become more complex, autonomous, and opaque to the flight crew, it becomes increasingly difficult to determine whether the total system is performing as it should. Some of the complex and interrelated human performance measurement issues are addressed that are related to total system validation. An evaluative throughput model is presented which can be used to generate a human operator-related benchmark or figure of merit for a given system which involves humans at the input and output ends as well as other automated intelligent agents. The concept of sustained and accurate command/control data information transfer is introduced. The first two input parameters of the model involve nominal and off-nominal predicted events. The first of these calls for a detailed task analysis while the second is for a contingency event assessment. The last two required input parameters involving actual (measured) events, namely human performance and continuous semi-automated system performance. An expression combining these four parameters was found using digital simulations and identical, representative, random data to yield the smallest variance.

Haines, Richard F.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Radiation model predictions and validation using LDEF data

Radiation dosimetry aboard LDEF, as well as post-flight measurements of the radioactivity induced in numerous LDEF spacecraft components, provide unique data for evaluating the accuracy of current models for predicting both the space radiation environments (trapped proton intensity, spectra, and directionality; cosmic ray fluence) and the radiation environments induced in spacecraft components (fluence, energy spectra, secondary particle, linear energy transfer, etc.). By determining the accuracy of such models using LDEF data, and with model updates where required, improved radiation environment predictions can be made for future missions, which in turn allows improved predictions for specific radiation effects for future spacecraft components (single event upsets of microelectronics, radiation damage to focal plane arrays, noise in sensitive instrumentation, etc.). Herein, the status and results from radiation model predictions and comparisons with LDEF data is given. The calculations are made using radiation transport codes coupled with a 3-D geometry/mass model of LDEF, together with current models of the space radiation environment.

Armstrong, T. W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Simulation of a data archival and distribution system at GSFC

A version-0 of a Data Archive and Distribution System (DADS) is being developed at GSFC to support existing and pre-EOS Earth science datasets and test Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) concepts. The performance of DADS is predicted using a discrete event simulation model. The goals of the simulation were to estimate the amount of disk space needed and the time required to fulfill the DADS requirements for ingestion (14 GB/day) and distribution (48 GB/day). The model has demonstrated that 4 mm and 8 mm stackers can play a critical role in improving the performance of the DADS, since it takes, on average, 3 minutes to manually mount/dismount tapes compared to less than a minute with stackers. With two 4 mm stackers and two 8 mm stackers, and a single operator per shift, the DADS requirements can be met within 16 hours using a total of 9 GB of disk space. When the DADS has no stacker, and the DADS depends entirely on operators to handle the distribution tapes, the simulation has shown that the DADS requirements can still be met within 16 hours, but a minimum of 4 operators per shift were required. The compression/decompression of data sets is very CPU intensive, and relatively slow when performed in software, thereby contributing to an increase in the amount of disk space needed.

Bedet, Jean-Jacques↗

NASA NTRS1989

Diagnostic analysis of observed and numerically simulated cloud and precipitation structures during pre-ERICA

A preliminary 140-km simulation of a rapid cyclogenesis, using the Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System (LAMPS) is discussed. A three-dimensional version of LAMPS used in the simulation is described, along with a trajectory model utilizing the three-hourly output history files from the LAMPS model. Preliminary integrations of the LAMPS code as well as passive microwave digital data from SSM/I aboard the DMSP satellite are used for exploring the evolving baroclinic structure and moisture field of the cyclone event. A trajectory analysis of the model histories reveals a significant role for preconditioning of the low-level upstream air, which is then drawn into the ascending warm conveyor belt ahead of the storm.

Perkey, Donald J.↗

NASA NTRS2020

GRACE Improves Seasonal Groundwater Forecast Initialization Over the United States

We evaluate the impact of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data assimilation (GRACE-DA) on seasonal hydrological forecast initialization over the United States, focusing on groundwater storage. GRACE-based terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates are assimilated into a land surface model for the2003–16 period. Three-month hindcast (i.e., forecast of past events) simulations are initialized using states from the reference (no data assimilation) and GRACE-DA runs. Differences between the two initial hydrological condition (IHC) sets are evaluated for two forecast techniques at 305 wells where depth to water table measurements are available. Results show that using GRACE-DA-based IHC improves seasonal groundwater forecast performance in terms of both RMSE and correlation. While most regions show improvement, degradation is common in the High Plains, where withdrawals for irrigation practices affect groundwater variability more strongly than the weather variability, which demonstrates the need for simulating such activities. These findings contribute to recent efforts toward an improved U.S. drought monitoring and forecast system.

Augusto Getirana↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Regional Air Quality Forecasting Through Chemical Data Assimilation and Dynamic Emissions Adjustment

Poor air quality (AQ) is one of the most important human-health and environmental problems facing the United States (US). In addition to the detrimental impacts on human- and environmental-health, poor AQ has an economic cost of ~5% of the US gross domestic product (~$790 billion). AQ managers use AQ analyses and modeling to better understand, anticipate, and avoid poor AQ events. Our research focuses on improving AQ analysis/forecast skill, predictability, and emission estimates through improved and more efficient: (i) modeling and data assimilation strategies; (ii) dynamic emissions adjustment strategies; and (iii) use of satellite remote-sensing Earth observations (e.g., MOPITT, IASI, MODIS, OMI, TROPOMI, TEMPO, etc.). This seminar will review: (i) regional chemical weather forecasting/data assimilation with dynamic emissions adjustment with WRF-Chem/DART; (ii) strategies for efficiently assimilating satellite retrieval profiles with ‘compact phase space retrievals’ (CPSRs); (iii) results from joint assimilation of multiple satellite retrievals at medium (12 km × 12 km) and high (4 km × 4 km) spatial resolutions; and (iv) results from observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to investigate whether we can recover COVID-period anthropogenic emissions by assimilating synthetic TEMPO NO2 tropospheric column retrievals with dynamic emissions adjustment. Biographical Sketch: Dr. Mizzi is a Senior Research Fellow working and Dr. Johnson at the NASA Ames Research Center. He holds BA and MS degrees in Environmental Science from the University of Virginia, MS and PhD degrees in Applied Mathematics from the University of Colorado at Boulder (CUB), and a JD degree (with an emphasis in Environmental Law) from the University of Colorado School of Law. He worked at the National Center for Atmospheric Research for nearly 25 years on global atmospheric modeling, dynamic and physical initialization, regional hybrid data assimilation, and most recently on regional chemical data assimilation. He also worked as an environmental attorney and consultant for nearly 15 years. He is an expert in numerical modeling and is recognized internationally as a leading expert in regional, chemical data assimilation with dynamic emissions adjustment. Dr. Mizzi became affiliated with NASA Ames in March 2020 to work on improving AQ analysis/forecast skill, predictability, and ‘top-down’ emissions adjustment though the assimilation of Earth observations. An emphasis of his current work is developing methods for assimilating synthetic TEMPO retrievals to quantify the expected benefits of TEMPO relative to existing AQ observations.

Arthur P. Mizzi↗

NASA NTRS2014

Comparison Of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Datasets For Projecting Changes In Extreme Precipitation In The San Francisco Bay Area.

Water resource managers planning for the adaptation to future events of extreme precipitation now have access to high resolution downscaled daily projections derived from statistical bias correction and constructed analogs. We also show that along the Pacific Coast the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI) is a reliable predictor of storm likelihood, and therefore a predictor of seasonal precipitation totals and likelihood of extremely intense precipitation. Such time series can be used to project intensity duration curves into the future or input into stormwater models. However, few climate projection studies have explored the impact of the type of downscaling method used on the range and uncertainty of predictions for local flood protection studies. Here we present a study of the future climate flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, located in South Bay Area, by comparing the range of predictions in extreme precipitation events calculated from three sets of time series downscaled from CMIP5 data: 1) the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs method dataset downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid (12km); 2) the Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation method downscaled to a 1km grid; 3) a statistical model of extreme daily precipitation events and projected NOI from CMIP5 models. In addition, predicted years of extreme precipitation are used to estimate the risk of overtopping of the retention pond located on the site through simulations of the EPA SWMM hydrologic model. Preliminary results indicate that the intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase and flood the NASA Ames retention pond. The results from these estimations will assist flood protection managers in planning for infrastructure adaptations.

Storm↗

NASA NTRS1987

Description of an aircraft lightning and simulated nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NEMP) threat based on experimental data

Lightning data obtained by measuring the surface electromagnetic fields on a CV-580 research aircraft during 48 lightning strikes between 1500 and 18,000 feet in central Florida during the summers of 1984 and 1985, and nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NEMP) data obtained by surface electromagnetic field measurements using a 1:74 CV-580 scale model, are presented. From one lightning event, maximum values of 3750 T/s for the time rate of change of the surface magnetic flux density, and 4.7 kA for the peak current, were obtained. From the simulated NEMP test, maximum values of 40,000 T/s for the time rate of change of the surface magnetic flux density, and 90 A/sq m for the total normal current density, were found. The data have application to the development of a military aircraft lightning/NEMP standard.

Rustan, Pedro L., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

Risk Analysis↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model for Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

Risk Analysis↗

NASA NTRS1982

A possible common origin for the rare gases on Venus, earth, and Mars

The rare gas concentrations in the terrestrial planets and the carbonaceous chondrites could have been derived from a single source an early solar wind. The fractionation processes responsible for the varying concentration patterns in this model are differential ionization and the relative separation of neutrals from ions due to interaction with the solar magnetic field. If species dependent effects are small relative to radius dependent effects, this process can explain in detail both the relative and absolute abundances in the terrestrial planets and carbonaceous chondrites. The electron temperatures predicted by the data are consistent with astrophysical constraints previously derived for the solar nebula, and the timeline of events necessary for this model is consistent with accretion in a gas free environment. If species dependent fractionations are small, or approximately cancel each other, the earth is found to be outgassed by an order of magnitude more efficiently than Venus or Mars.

Hostetler, C. J.↗