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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tracking the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Eruption Stratospheric Aerosol and Trace Gas Plumes Using Machine Learning

On January 15, 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (hereafter, Hunga Tonga) submarine volcano had an explosive eruption that thrusted ash, gases, and water vapor through the troposphere into the stratosphere and mesosphere. Previous studies manually tracked the aerosol and trace gas plumes over time across different positions in the southern hemisphere. Using data retrieved from low earth orbiting satellite instruments (e.g., OMPS, OMI, and CALIPSO), this research demonstrates how open-source machine learning (ML) models, like Meta’s Segment Anything Model (SAM), with prompt engineering can perform automatic plume tracking following the Hunga Tonga eruption. This extensible methodology, and modular data processing and modeling pipeline using NASA Earthdata and Openscapes, establishes a framework for systematically and rapidly studying extreme events, including volcanic eruptions and large-scale wildfires. By combining advanced machine learning techniques, such as SAM’s zero-shot learning, with large volumes of remote sensing data, this work demonstrates how AI and open science can accelerate research and generate actionable results. The tools and technologies presented here can help translate earth science to action from NASA’s current and future Earth observing satellite missions (e.g., the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS)), and assist researchers and stakeholders in understanding, mapping, and responding to natural disasters and extreme events in a changing world.

David M. Giles↗

NASA NTRS2020

Characterization of the 2008 Phreatomagmatic Eruption of Okmok From ArcticDEM and InSAR: Deposition, Erosion, and Deformation

Okmok volcano, one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian Islands, erupted between 12 July and 19 August 2008 and produced a new tephra cone (Ahmanilix) up to 253 m high. A coeruptive deposit thickness map and the posteruptive elevation change rate map are generated for this phreatomagmatic eruption using the new, high-resolution (2 m) digital elevation model (DEM) time series provided by ArcticDEM. The total dense rock equivalent (DRE) volume over the proximal deposit field classified from the elevation change map is estimated as 0.147 ± 0.001 km 3 DRE (bulk volume of 0.453 ± 0.003 km 3 ). Combined with the distal deposit volume derived from field measurements, the total DRE is 0.25 km 3 (bulk volume of 0.76 km 3 ). The estimated erosion rate is up to −15 ± 3 m/year along the flanks of Ahmanilix, and the redeposition rate is about 1 ± 0.3 m/year at the base and 6 ± 1 m/year within the center of Ahmanilix. The surface elevation change also reveals a large ground surface collapse that disrupted the old Cone D lava bench, with a total collapse area of 0.15 km2 and a volume of (7.1 ± 0.4) × 10−3 km 3 . We also produce a coeruptive deformation map from satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) using topography from both ArcticDEM and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and compare the results. Finally, based on historical eruption volumes, the magma supply rate at Okmok is estimated as (1.77 ± 0.1) × 10−3 km 3 /year.

Chunli Dai↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Examining the Early Onset of Selected Large Solar Eruptions During the 2024 May Superstorm Episode

Recent studies indicate that solar flares are preceded by a period of above-ambient coronal heating, along with an increase in coronal X-ray emissions (Hudson et al. 2021). Despite being extremely common, the cause of these enhanced preflare emissions has not yet been understood. Here, our team examines in detail several of the large eruptions during the May 2024 superstorm period that resulted in significant geomagnetic disturbances. We use data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory's (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), from the Hinode satellite, and from other sources. For several of the GOES X-class events on 8-10 May, we find that the preflare heating signature is more complex than in the case of flares occurring in less dynamic solar regions, but nonetheless distinct hot (>~ 10 MK) preflare coronal signatures are present. Understanding of the cause of such preflare activity prior to the onset of geoeffective solar eruptions is essential to developing an eventual robust prediction algorithm for warning of impending solar eruptions that threaten Space Weather consequences.

Alphonse C. Sterling↗

NASA NTRS1995

Late Holocene Eruptive History of Popocatepetl Volcano, Mexico: Implications for Future Hazards

Detailed mapping of the strata around the Popocatepetl Volcano in central Mexico indicates that there have been major eruptions every 1000 to 2000 years. The last two of these destroyed pre- Columbian cities in the area, and a similar level of eruption today might require evacuation of as many as 30 million people.

volcano volcanic eruptions↗

NASA NTRS2021

Tracking aerosols and SO2 clouds from the Raikoke eruption: 3D view from satellite observations

The 21 June 2019 eruption of the Raikoke volcano (Kuril Islands, Russia; 48° N, 153° E) produced significant amounts of volcanic aerosols (sulfate and ash) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas that penetrated into the lower stratosphere. The dispersed SO2 and sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere were still detectable by multiple satellite sensors for many months after the eruption. For this study of SO2 and aerosol clouds we use data obtained from two of the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite sensors on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite: total column SO2 from the Nadir Mapper and aerosol extinction profiles from the Limb Profiler as well as other satellite data sets. We evaluated the limb viewing geometry effect (the “arch effect”) in the retrieval of the LP standard aerosol extinction product at 674 nm. It was shown that the amount of SO2 decreases with a characteristic period of 8–18 d and the peak of stratospheric aerosol optical depth recorded at a wavelength of 674 nm lags the initial peak of SO2 mass by 1.5 months. Using satellite observations and a trajectory model, we examined the dynamics of an unusual atmospheric feature that was observed, a stratospheric coherent circular cloud of SO2 and aerosol from 18 July to 22 September 2019.

Eruption of the Raikoke volcano↗

NASA NTRS2022

Stratospheric Circulation Changes Associated with the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Eruption

The 15 January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano (20.5°S, 175.4°W) injected a record amount of water directly into the stratosphere. This study attempts to quantify this impact on the temperature, as well as the subsequent changes to the stratospheric circulation, during the months following the eruption based on reanalysis fields. The extreme nature of the temperature, wind, and circulation changes are tracked through comparisons of the first six months of 2022 with the previous 42 years. Examination of the data assimilation process shows that at 20 hPa the thermal observations are forcing significant cooling, compensating for the absence of the excess stratospheric moisture in the model used for the reanalysis. In response to this cooling the atmosphere adjusts by creating strong westerly winds above the temperature anomaly and large changes to the downward and poleward mean meridional circulation.

Volcano↗

NASA NTRS1971

Possible effects on the stratosphere of the 1963 Mt. Agung volcanic eruption.

Previous studies of atmospheric pollution resulting from the 1963 eruption of Mt. Agung have shown that the volcanic dust caused temperature increases in the lower stratosphere over Australia. The present study provides time series of monthly-mean lower stratospheric temperatures for eight tropical stations on both sides of the equator. The data have been smoothed by taking 12-month running means. The results suggest that any effect of the eruption may be impossible to isolate. Some features of the quasi-biennial oscillation in zonal winds and temperatures are pointed out which must be considered in any attempt to explain the peculiarities in the curves of monthly mean temperatures.

Mcinturff, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Mount Agung eruption provides test of global climatic perturbation

The Mount Agung volcanic eruption in 1963 provides the best-documented global radiative perturbation to the earth's atmosphere currently available. Data on stratospheric aerosols produced by this eruption have been used as input to a model for the atmospheric thermal structure. The computed magnitude, sign, and phase lag of the temperature changes in both the stratosphere and the troposphere are in good agreement with observations, providing evidence that the climatic response to a global radiative perturbation is significant as well as support for the use of theoretical models to predict climatic effects.

Hansen, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Similar explosive eruptions of lunar and terrestrial volcanoes

A mathematical model of one-dimensional, steady duct flow of a mixture of gas and small solid particles (rock), has been applied to the earth and the moon under geometrically and dynamically similar conditions to simulate explosive eruption conditions. Numerical results for equilibrium two-phase flows for lunar and terrestrial explosive eruptions under similar conditions indicate that: (1) a lunar explosive vent is much larger than the corresponding terrestrial vent, (2) the exit velocity from the lunar explosive flow may be higher than the lunar escape velocity, but the exit velocity of terrestrial explosive flow is much less than that of the lunar case (this result supports the hypothesis that Australian tektites came from the moon as a stream of a mixture of rock and gas of extremely high speed), and (3) the thermal effects on the lunar explosive flows are much larger than those of the terrestrial case.

Pai, S. I.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Determination of the total grain size distribution in a vulcanian eruption column, and its implications to stratospheric aerosol perturbation

The total grain distribution of tephra from the eruption by the Fuego volcano in Guatemala on Oct. 14, 1974 was determined by grain size analysis. The region within each isopach has a grain distribution which was weighted proportionally to its percentage volume; the total distribution had a median grain size of 0.6 mm and a sorting coefficient of 2.3. The ash composed of fine particles did not fall in the volcano area as part of the recognizable tephra blanket; the eruption column reached well into the stratosphere to the height of 10-12 km above sea level, with mass flux rate estimated altitudes of 18-23 km

Murrow, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Size distributions and mineralogy of ash particles in the stratosphere from eruptions of Mount St. Helens

Samples from the stratosphere obtained by U-2 aircraft after the first three major eruptions of Mount St. Helens contained large globules of liquid acid and ash. Because of their large size, these globules had disappeared from the lower stratosphere by late June 1980, leaving behind only smaller acid droplets. Particle size distributions and mineralogy of the stratospheric ash grains demonstrate inhomogeneity in the eruption clouds.

Farlow, N. H.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Eruption mechanics on the earth, moon and Mars

A survey is provided of recent comparative studies on the character of eruption mechanics on earth, the moon and Mars. Among the relevant determinations made are: (1) a source depth for lunar basaltic magmas deeper, at 100 km, than most terrestrial ones; (2) the rising of both lunar and terrestrial magmas to less than 2 km below the surface before gases begin to exsolve; (3) carbon monoxide concentrations in lunar basalts are an order of magnitude lower than the average volatile contents of terrestrial basalts; and (4) unequivocal proof is lacking for the existence of ignimbrites in Martian volcanic formations, which would be formed by the collapse of large eruption columns.

Wadge, G.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Steady state volcanism - Evidence from eruption histories of polygenetic volcanoes

Cumulative volcano volume curves are presented as evidence for steady-state behavior at certain volcanoes and to develop a model of steady-state volcanism. A minimum criteria of five eruptions over a year was chosen to characterize a steady-state volcano. The subsequent model features a constant head of magmatic pressure from a reservoir supplied from depth, a sawtooth curve produced by the magma arrivals or discharge from the subvolcanic reservoir, large volume eruptions with long repose periods, and conditions of nonsupply of magma. The behavior of Mts. Etna, Nyamuragira, and Kilauea are described and show continuous levels of plasma output resulting in cumulative volume increases. Further discussion is made of steady-state andesitic and dacitic volcanism, long term patterns of the steady state, and magma storage, and the lack of a sufficient number of steady-state volcanoes in the world is taken as evidence that further data is required for a comprehensive model.

Wadge, G.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Fine particles in the Soufriere eruption plume

The size distributions of fine particles measured at tropospheric altitudes in the periphery of the eruption plume formed during the April 17, 1979 eruption of Soufriere Volcano and in the low-level effluents on May 15, 1979 were found to be bimodal, having peak concentrations at geometric mean diameters of 1.1 and 0.23 micrometers. Scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray analysis of the samples revealed an abundance of aluminum and silicon and traces of sodium, magnesium, chlorine, potassium, calcium, and iron in the large-particle mode. The submicrometer-sized particles were covered with liquid containing sulfur, assumed to be in the form of liquid sulfuric acid.

Woods, D. C.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Analysis of long-period seismic waves excited by the May 18, 1980, eruption of Mount St. Helens - A terrestrial monopole

The eruption of Mount St. Helens on May 18, 1980, excited long-period seismic waves, and high-quality digital seismograms were recorded. The present investigation is concerned with the results of detailed analyses of Rayleigh and Love waves excited by this eruption. Since the elastic response of the earth is very accurately known, it is possible to retrieve the source parameters of this unique event from observations at far-field. It is shown that the source can be represented by a nearly horizontal single force. The conducted analysis is concerned with only long-period characteristics of the source. The short-period behavior of the source is difficult to determine from surface waves because the available knowledge of the earth's response is less accurate than at long periods.

Kanamori, H.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Atmospheric Effects and Potential Climatic Impact of the 1980 Eruptions of Mount St. Helens

Measurements and studies of the 1980 Mount St. Helens volcanic eruptions and their atmospheric effects and climatic impact are addressed. Specific areas discussed include: (1) nature and impact of volcanic eruptions; (2) in situ measurements of effluents; (3) remote sensing measurements; (4) transport and dispersion of volcanic effluents; (5) chemistry of volcanic effluents; and (6) weather and potential climate impact.

Adarsh Deepak↗

NASA NTRS1982

Simulation studies of the physical and chemical processes occurring in the stratospheric clouds of the Mount St. Helens eruptions of May and June 1980

The large and diverse set of observational data collected in the high-altitude clouds of May 18, May 25, and June 13, 1980 was organized and analyzed for trends which reveal the processes at work. The data were used to guide and constrain model simulations of the volcanic eruptions. A comprehensive one-dimensional model of stratospheric sulfate aerosols, sulfur precursor gases, and volcanic ash and dust particles is utilized which accounts for homogeneous and heterogeneous chemistry in the clouds, aerosol nucleation and growth, and cloud expansion. Computational results are given for the time histories of the gaseous species concentrations, sulfate aerosol size dispersions, and ash burdens in the eruption clouds. The long-term buildup of stratospheric aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere and the persistent effects of injected chlorine and water vapor on ozone are discussed. It is concluded that SO2, water vapor, and ash are the most important substances injected by the volcano into the stratosphere, with respect to both the widespread effects on composition and the impact on climate. It is found that the volcano probably had little influence on the climate ( 0.05 K global surface cooling) or on stratospheric ozone ( 0.2 percent maximum hemispherical reduction).

Turco, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Problems in the climatology of the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruptions

A brief review of the effects of climate and weather on the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruptions and the subsequent dispersion of ash and gases and the reciprocal influences of the eruptions on climate and climatology is presented. The effects of mesoscale destruction of snow fields and vegetation, a revised mountain profile, and ash deposits are addressed along with impacts on hemispheric climate and disruption of normal climatological observations, in the areas directly affected by the explosions and ashfall. Environmental and economic consequences are also considered.

Critchfield, H. J.↗