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At least 307 records · Page 17

Power generation forecasting for solar plants based on Dynamic Bayesian networks by fusing multi-source information

A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Short-Term Distribution System State Forecast Based on Optimal Synchrophasor Sensor Placement and Extreme Learning Machine

This paper proposes an approach for distribution system state forecasting, which aims to provide an accurate and high speed state forecasting with an optimal synchrophasor sensor placement (OSSP) based state estimator and an extreme learning machine (ELM) based forecaster. Specifically, considering the sensor installation cost and measurement error, an OSSP algorithm is proposed to reduce the number of synchrophasor sensor and keep the whole distribution system numerically and topologically observable. Then, the weighted least square (WLS) based system state estimator is used to produce the training data for the proposed forecaster. Traditionally, the artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR) are widely used in forecasting due to their nonlinear modeling capabilities. However, the ANN contains heavy computation load and the best parameters for SVR are difficult to obtain. In this paper, the ELM, which overcomes these drawbacks, is used to forecast the future system states with the historical system states. The proposed approach is effective and accurate based on the testing results.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Hierarchical Multi-Agent Based Anomaly Detection for Wide-Area Protection in Smart Grid

Future smart grid capabilities provide assurance to expand the advanced information and communication technologies to evolve into densely interconnected cyber physical system. Remedial Action Scheme (RAS), widely used for wide-area protection, relies on the interconnected networks and data sharing devices, which are exposed to the multitude of vulnerabilities. This paper presents our proposed approach to developing multi-agent based RAS scheme against the system-aware stealthy cyber-attacks. Specifically, we propose the two-level hierarchical architecture which consists of distributed local RAS controllers (RAScs) as local agents, operating at different zones/ areas, which are constantly monitored by an overseer, the central agent. The local controllers receive local and randomly changing outside zonal measurements and cyclically forwards to the overseer. The overseer identifies the corrupted controller using the anomaly detection algorithm which processes the measurements coming from the local controllers, compute measurement errors using local and outside zonal measurements, perform validation checks, and finally detect anomalies based on the two-step verification. Next, as a proof of concept, we have implemented and validated the proposed methodology in cyber physical environment at Iowa State’s PowerCyber testbed. We have also implemented the coordinated attack vectors which involve corrupting the local controller and later performing stealthy attacks on the system’s generator. We have evaluated its performance during the online testing in terms of detection rate and Iatency. The experimental results show that it is efficient in detecting different classes of attacks, including ramp and pulse attacks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

WE-H-207A-02: Attenuation Correction in 4D-PET Using a Single-Phase Attenuation Map

Purpose: 4D-PET imaging has been proposed as a potential solution to the respiratory motion effect in thoracic region. CT-based attenuation correction (AC) is an essential step toward quantitative imaging for PET. However, due to the temporal difference of 4D-PET and a single breath-hold CT, motion artifacts are observed in the attenuation-corrected PET images that can lead to error in tumor shape and uptake. We introduce a practical method for aligning single-phase CT to all other 4D-PET phases using a penalized non-rigid demons registration. Methods: Individual 4D-PET frames were reconstructed without AC. Non-rigid Demons registration was used to derive deformation vector fields (DVFs) between the PET matched with CT phase and other 4D-PET images. While attenuated PET images provide enough useful data for organ borders such as lung and liver, tumors are not distinguishable from background due to loss of contrast. To preserve tumor shape in different phases, from CT image an ROI covering tumor was excluded from non-rigid transformation. Mean DVF of the central region of the tumor was assigned to all voxels in the ROI. This process mimics a rigid transformation of tumor along with a non-rigid transformation of other organs. 4D XCAT phantom with spherical tumors in lung with diameters ranging from 10 to 40 mm was used to evaluate the algorithm. Results: Motion related induced artifacts in attenuation-corrected 4D-PET images were significantly reduced. For tumors smaller than 20 mm, non-rigid transformation was capable to provide quantitative results. However, for larger tumors, where tumor self-attenuation is considerable, our combined method yields superior results. Conclusion: We introduced a practical method for deforming a single CT to match all 4D-PET images for accurate AC. Although 4D-PET data include insignificant anatomical information, we showed that they are still useful to estimate DVFs for aligning attenuation map and accurate AC.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Development of Short-Term Forecasting Models Using Plant Asset Data and Feature Selection

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This paper focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 +- 0.014, 0.0026 +- 0, and 0.063 +- 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Solid Mechanics Code Verification: Contrasting Classical and Manufactured Reference Solutions

Verification results for Sierra/SM using inexact reference solutions have often exhibited unsatisfactory convergence behavior. With an understanding of the convergence behavior for these types of tests, one can avoid falsely attributing pathologies of the test with incorrectness of the code. Simple theoretical results highlight that for an inexact reference solution two conditions must be met to observe asymptotic convergence. These conditions, and the resulting types of convergence behaviors, are further illustrated with graphical examples depicting the exact, inexact reference, and sequence of numerical solutions as vectors (in a function space). A stress concentration problem is adopted to contrast convergence behaviors when using inexact (classical linear elastic) and exact (manufactured) reference solutions. Convergence is not initially attained with the classical solution. Convergence with the manufactured solution indicates the convergence failure with the classical reference did not result from code error and provides insight on how for this problem asymptotic convergence could be attained with the classical reference solution by modifying the computational models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

TU-AB-202-07: A Novel Method for Registration of Mid-Treatment PET/CT Images Under Conditions of Tumor Regression for Patients with Locally Advanced Lung Cancers

Purpose: In PET-guided adaptive radiotherapy (RT), changes in the metabolic activity at individual voxels cannot be derived until the duringtreatment CT images are appropriately registered to pre-treatment CT images. However, deformable image registration (DIR) usually does not preserve tumor volume. This may induce errors when comparing to the target. The aim of this study was to develop a DIR-integrated mechanical modeling technique to track radiation-induced metabolic changes on PET images. Methods: Three patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) were treated with adaptive radiotherapy under RTOG 1106. Two PET/CT image sets were acquired 2 weeks before RT and 18 fractions after the start of treatment. DIR was performed to register the during-RT CT to the pre-RT CT using a B-spline algorithm and the resultant displacements in the region of tumor were remodeled using a hybrid finite element method (FEM). Gross tumor volume (GTV) was delineated on the during-RT PET/CT image sets and deformed using the 3D deformation vector fields generated by the CT-based registrations. Metabolic tumor volume (MTV) was calculated using the pre- and during–RT image set. The quality of the PET mapping was evaluated based on the constancy of the mapped MTV and landmark comparison. Results: The B-spline-based registrations changed MTVs by 7.3%, 4.6% and −5.9% for the 3 patients and the correspondent changes for the hybrid FEM method −2.9%, 1% and 6.3%, respectively. Landmark comparisons were used to evaluate the Rigid, B-Spline, and hybrid FEM registrations with the mean errors of 10.1 ± 1.6 mm, 4.4 ± 0.4 mm, and 3.6 ± 0.4 mm for three patients. The hybrid FEM method outperforms the B-Spline-only registration for patients with tumor regression Conclusion: The hybrid FEM modeling technique improves the B-Spline registrations in tumor regions. This technique may help compare metabolic activities between two PET/CT images with regressing tumors. The author gratefully acknowledges the financial support from the National Institutes of Health Grant.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Computation of the Biot–Savart line integral with higher-order convergence using straight segments

One common approach to computing the magnetic field produced by a filamentary current-carrying coil is to approximate the coil as a series of straight segments. The Biot–Savart field from each straight segment is analytically known. However, if the endpoints of the straight segments are chosen to lie on the coil, then the accuracy of the Biot–Savart computation is generally only the second order in the number of endpoints. In this work, we propose a simple modification: shift each end point of the coil in the outward normal direction by an amount proportional to the local curvature. With this modification, the Biot–Savart accuracy increases to the fourth order and the numerical error is dramatically reduced for a given number of discretization points.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Data-Driven Robust M-LS-SVR-Based NARX Modeling for Estimation and Control of Molten Iron Quality Indices in Blast Furnace Ironmaking

Optimal operation of an industrial blast furnace (BF) ironmaking process largely depends on a reliable measurement of molten iron quality (MIQ), which is not feasible using the conventional sensors. This paper proposes a novel data-driven robust modeling method for online estimation and control of MIQ indices. First, to completely capture the nonlinear dynamics of the BF process, the nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) model is constructed for the MIQ indices. Then, considering that the standard least-squares support vector regression (LS-SVR) cannot directly cope with the multi-output problem, the multi- task transfer learning is proposed to design a novel multi-output LS-SVR (M-LS-SVR) for learning of the NARX model. Furthermore, a novel M-estimator is proposed to reduce the interference of outliers and improve the robustness of the M-LS- SVR model. Since the weights of different outlier data are properly given by the weight function, their corresponding contributions on modeling can be properly distinguished, thus a robust modeling result can be achieved. Finally, a novel multi- objective evaluation index on modeling performance is developed by comprehensively considering the root mean square error of modeling and the correlation coefficient on trend fitting, based on which the NSGA-II algorithm is used to globally optimize the model parameters. Both experiments using industrial data and industrial applications illustrate that the proposed method can eliminate the adverse effect caused by the fluctuation of data in BF process efficiently, which indicates its stronger robustness and higher accuracy. Moreover, control testing shows that the developed model can be well applied to realize data-driven control of the BF process.

blast cavities, Control↗

Reduced Order Modeling conditioned on monitored features for response and error bounds estimation in engineered systems

Reduced Order Models (ROMs) form essential tools across engineering domains by virtue of their function as surrogates for computationally intensive digital twinning simulators. Although purely data-driven methods are available for ROM construction, schemes that allow to retain a portion of the physics tend to enhance the interpretability and generalization of ROMs. However, physics-based techniques can adversely scale when dealing with nonlinear systems that feature parametric dependencies. This study introduces a generative physics-based ROM that is suited for nonlinear systems with parametric dependencies and is additionally able to provide numerical error bounds associated with the respective estimates. A main contribution of this work is the conditioning of these parametric ROMs to features that can be derived from monitoring measurements, feasibly in an online fashion. This is contrary to most existing ROM schemes, which remain restricted to the prescription of the physics-based, and usually a priori unknown, system parameters. Our work utilizes conditional Variational Autoencoders to continuously map the required reduction bases to a feature vector extracted from limited output measurements, while additionally allowing for a probabilistic assessment of the ROM-estimated Quantities of Interest. An auxiliary task using a neural network-based parametrization of suitable probability distributions is introduced to re-establish the link with physical model parameters. We verify the proposed scheme on a series of simulated case studies incorporating effects of geometric and material nonlinearity under parametric dependencies related to system properties and input load characteristics.

Conditional VAEs↗

Structure Sensitive Reaction Kinetics of Chiral Molecules on Intrinsically Chiral Surfaces

Enantiospecific heterogeneous catalysis utilizes chiral surfaces to resolve enantiomers via structure sensitive surface chemistry. The catalyst design challenge is the identification of chiral surface structures that maximize enantiospecificity. Herein, we develop data driven models for the enantiospecificity of tartaric acid reactions on chiral Cu(hkl) R&S surfaces. Measurements of enantiospecific rate constants were obtained by using curved Cu(hkl) R&S surfaces that enable kinetic measurements on hundreds of chiral surface orientations. One model uses feature vectors derived from generalized coordination numbers to capture the local structure around Cu atoms exposed by the Cu(hkl) R&S surfaces. The second model introduces the use of chiral cubic harmonic functions to capture the symmetry constraints of the face-centered cubic Cu structure. The model using 58 generalized coordination numbers has a fitting error similar to that of the model using only 5 cubic harmonic functions. The two models predict maxima in the enantiospecificity on surfaces with very similar surface orientations. The models developed in this work are applicable for any enantiospecific reaction happening on any chiral material with a cubic lattice structure, opening the way to understanding the surface structure sensitivity of the enantiospecific reaction kinetics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Sample variance in weak lensing: How many simulations are required?

Constraining cosmology using weak gravitational lensing consists of comparing a measured feature vector of dimension N b with its simulated counterpart. An accurate estimate of the N b × N b feature covariance matrix C is essential to obtain accurate parameter confidence intervals. When C is measured from a set of simulations, an important question is how large this set should be. To answer this question, we construct different ensembles of N r realizations of the shear field, using a common randomization procedure that recycles the outputs from a smaller number N s ≤ N r of independent ray-tracing N-body simulations. We study parameter confidence intervals as a function of (N s , N r ) in the range 1 ≤ N s ≤ 200 and 1 ≤ N r ≲ 105. Previous work [S. Dodelson and M. D. Schneider, Phys. Rev. D 88, 063537 (2013)] has shown that Gaussian noise in the feature vectors (from which the covariance is estimated) lead, at quadratic order, to an O(1/N r ) degradation of the parameter confidence intervals. Using a variety of lensing features measured in our simulations, including shear-shear power spectra and peak counts, we show that cubic and quartic covariance fluctuations lead to additional O(1/N 2 r ) error degradation that is not negligible when N r is only a factor of few larger than N b . We study the large N r limit, and find that a single, 240 Mpc/h sized 512 3 -particle N-body simulation (N s = 1) can be repeatedly recycled to produce as many as N r = few × 10 4 shear maps whose power spectra and high-significance peak counts can be treated as statistically independent. Lastly, a small number of simulations (N s = 1 or 2) is sufficient to forecast parameter confidence intervals at percent accuracy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Characterizing Sub-Cohorts via Data Normalization and Representation Learning

The process of identifying a cohort of interest is a very challenging task. It requires manually inspecting many patient records of complex structure that might include medical coding errors and missing data. This paper presents a computational pipeline for refining the process of cohort selection based on medical concepts recorded in the electronic health records (EHRs). The pipeline extracts EHR data for a given cohort and normalizes this data using standard vocabularies. Then a stacked denoising autoencoder is used to embed the normalized patient vectors in a low dimensional space, where the patients are subsequently clustered into sub-cohorts. The goal is to represent the cohort in a standard format and abstract variants of sub-populations. As a use-case, we applied the pipeline to 1.8 million Veterans diagnosed with major depressive disorder (MDD), and identified four meaningful sub-cohorts using the features learned by the autoencoder. Then, each sub-cohort was explored using a set of keywords for interpretation.

Rush III, Everett↗

Modelling Curvilinear Beamline Effects on Beam- and Spin-Dynamics in the Fermilab Muon g-2 Storage Ring.

A model of the Fermilab Muon g-2 Experiment storage ring is developed with the BMAD simulation library for beam- and spin-dynamics studies. Particular focus is given to the electrostatic quadrupoles, the plates of which follow the curvature of the particle design trajectory of the magnetically uniform storage ring. To model these, standard electric multipoles and a novel method based on cylindrical harmonics are investigated and found to accurately match the electric field maps produced for the bulk and fringe regions of the curved quadrupoles respectively, despite these methods being specifically for straight beamlines. The toroidal multipole description is then developed, to include curvature and longitudinal field variations (to model the fringe field regions). Various combinations of the different descriptions (including use of the field maps) are used for the bulk and fringe fields of the quadrupoles, and the toroidal multipoles are found to provide the best agreement with the measured tunes of the storage ring. Two integrators are also developed, based on the method of Wu, Forest and Robin. The first of these describes motion in a uniform magnetic dipole field with arbitrary electric field, and produces results comparable to those of the adaptive-step fourth-order Runge–Kutta integrator implemented in BMAD, suitable for tracking over thousands of turns. The second is a generalisation of the first to arbitrary magnetic vector potentials superimposed on that of the uniform dipole, with arbitrary electric fields, and was also found to agree with the Runge–Kutta integrator. Simulations of antimuon storage for 2000 turns of the storage ring were performed, where losses were studied along with the evolution of beam polarisation. The storage losses, important for reducing the systematic error in the measurement of the muon g-2, were found to be largely due to collimator shape. The correlation between momentum and spin precession frequency reflect the effects expected from the electric field correction in the T-BMT equation, on the order of 10 -6 . Particle injection was also studied, for various injection angles, quadrupole strengths and strengths of injection kick, and in the cases where experimental data was provided, the model was found to be consistent with the experiment.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Projecting the Thermal Response in a HTGR-Type System during Conduction Cooldown Using Graph-Laplacian Based Machine Learning

Accurate prediction of an off-normal event in a nuclear reactor is dependent upon the availability of sensory data, reactor core physical condition, and understanding of the underlying phenomenon. This work presents a method to project the data from some discrete sensory locations to the overall reactor domain during conduction cooldown scenarios similar to High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs). The existing models for conductive cooldown in a heterogeneous multi-body system, such as an assembly of prismatic blocks or pebble beds relies on knowledge of the thermal contact conductance, requiring significant knowledge of local thermal contacts and heat transport possibilities across those contacts. With a priori knowledge of bulk geometry features and some discrete sensors, a machine learning approach was devised. The presented work uses an experimental facility to mimic conduction cooldown with an assembly of 68 cylindrical rods initially heated to 1200 K. High-fidelity temperature data were collected using an infrared (IR) camera to provide training data to the model and validate the predicted temperature data. The machine learning approach used here first converts the macroscopic bulk geometry information into Graph-Laplacian, and then uses the eigenvectors of the Graph-Laplacian to develop Kernel functions. Support vector regression (SVR) was implemented on the obtained Kernels and used to predict the thermal response in a packed rod assembly during a conduction cooldown experiment. The usage of SVR modeling differs from most models today because of its representation of thermal coupling between rods in the core. When trained with thermographic data, the average normalized error is less than 2% over 400 s, during which temperatures of the assembly have dropped by more than 500 K. The rod temperature prediction performance was significantly better for rods in the interior of the assembly compared to those near the exterior, likely due to the model simplification of the surroundings.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Prostate Bed Motion During Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy Treatment

Purpose: Conformal radiation therapy in the postprostatectomy setting requires accurate setup and localization of the prostatic fossa. In this series, we report prostate bed localization and motion characteristics, using data collected from implanted radiofrequency transponders. Methods and Materials: The Calypso four-dimensional localization system uses three implanted radiofrequency transponders for daily target localization and real-time tracking throughout a course of radiation therapy. We reviewed the localization and tracking reports for 20 patients who received ultrasonography-guided placement of Calypso transponders within the prostate bed prior to a course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy at Fox Chase Cancer Center. Results: At localization, prostate bed displacement relative to bony anatomy exceeded 5 mm in 9% of fractions in the anterior-posterior (A-P) direction and 21% of fractions in the superior-inferior (S-I) direction. The three-dimensional vector length from skin marks to Calypso alignment exceeded 1 cm in 24% of all 652 fractions with available setup data. During treatment, the target exceeded the 5-mm tracking limit for at least 30 sec in 11% of all fractions, generally in the A-P or S-I direction. In the A-P direction, target motion was twice as likely to move posteriorly, toward the rectum, than anteriorly. Fifteen percent of all treatments were interrupted for repositioning, and 70% of patients were repositioned at least once during their treatment course. Conclusion: Set-up errors and motion of the prostatic fossa during radiotherapy are nontrivial, leading to potential undertreatment of target and excess normal tissue toxicity if not taken into account during treatment planning. Localization and real-time tracking of the prostate bed via implanted Calypso transponders can be used to improve the accuracy of plan delivery.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

New Precision Limit on the Strange Vector Form Factors of the Proton

The parity-violating cross-section asymmetry in the elastic scattering of polarized electrons from unpolarized protons has been measured at a four-momentum transfer squared Q 2 = 0.624 GeV 2 and beam energy E b = 3.48 GeV to be A PV = -23.80 ± 0.78 (stat) ± 0.36 (syst) parts per million. This result is consistent with zero contribution of strange quarks to the combination of electric and magnetic form factors G E s + 0.517 G M s = 0.003 ± 0.010 (stat) ± 0.004 (syst) ± 0.009 (ff), where the third error is due to the limits of precision on the electromagnetic form factors and radiative corrections. With this measurement, the world data on strange contributions to nucleon form factors are seen to be consistent with zero and not more than a few percent of the proton form factors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

SU-E-J-230: Effect of Metal Hip Prosthesis On the Accuracy of Electromagnetic Localization and Tracking

Purpose: To quantify the effect of metal hip prosthesis on the ability to track and localize electromagnetic transponders. Methods: Three Calypso transponders were implanted into two prostate phantoms. The geometric center of the transponders were identified on computed tomography and set as the isocenter. With the phantom stationary on the treatment table and the tracking array 14-cm above the isocenter, data was acquired by the Calypso system at 10 Hz to establish the uncertainty in measurements. Transponder positional data was acquired with unilateral hip prostheses of different metallic compositions and then with bilateral hips placed at variable separation from the phantom. Results: Regardless of hip prosthesis composition, the average vector displacement in the presence of a unilateral prosthesis was < 0.5 mm. The greatest contribution to overall vector displacement occurred in the lateral dimension. With bilateral hip prosthesis, the average vector displacement was 0.3 mm. The displacement in the lateral dimension was markedly reduced compared with a unilateral hip, suggesting that there was a countervailing effect with bilateral hip prosthesis. The greatest average vector displacement was 0.6 mm and occurred when bilateral hip prostheses were placed within 4 cm of the detector array. Conclusion: Unilateral and bilateral hip prostheses did not have any meaningful effect on the ability to accurately track electromagnetic transponders implanted in a prostate phantom. At clinically realistic distances between the hip and detection array, the average tracking error is negligible.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗