Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “error propagation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Noninvasive acoustic time-of-flight measurements in heated, hermetically-sealed high explosives using a convolutional neural network

In this work, we present a data-driven technique for measuring the time-of-flight through material sealed within a container. Time-of-flight measurement provides a noninvasive means of quantifying the sound speed profile within a material by transmitting an acoustic burst and then measuring the time required for the burst to arrive at an opposing receiver. In a hermetically-sealed cylindrical container, a portion of the acoustic energy propagates through the material as a bulk wave, while the remainder of the acoustic energy propagates around the container walls as guided waves. As a result, interference from the guided waves obscures the bulk arrival, inhibiting measurement of the sound speed. The technique uses a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to identify critical features in the measured waveforms and identify bulk wave arrivals. We demonstrate this time-of-flight measurement technique on high explosive-filled containers as they are heated from room temperature to detonation. This is a particularly challenging application for acoustic time-of-flight measurements as the high explosives have significant sound speed gradients as they undergo heating, and they lead to significant attenuation of the bulk wave, as opposed to the guided waves, which do not suffer significant attenuation. We characterize the performance of the CNN as a function of the high explosive temperature and as a function of the CNN hyperparameters. We then provide physical insight into the error trends.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Complete quantification of parametric uncertainties in ( d , p ) transfer reactions

Deuteron-induced transfer reactions are a popular probe in nuclear structure and nuclear astro physics studies. The interpretation of these transfer measurements relies on reaction theory that takes as input effective interactions between the nucleons and the target nucleus. Previous work quantified the uncertainty associated with the optical potentials between the nucleons and the target. In this study, we extend that work by also including the parameters of the mean field associated with the overlap function of the final bound state, thus obtaining the full parametric uncertainty on transfer observables. We use Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to obtain parameter posterior distributions. We use elastic-scattering cross sections to constrain the optical potential parameters and use the asymptotic normalization coefficient of the final state to constrain the bound state interaction. We then propagate these posteriors to the transfer angular distributions and obtain confidence intervals for this observable. We study (d,p) reactions on 14 C, 16 O, and 48 Ca at energies in the range $E$ $d$ = 7 - 24 MeV. Our results show a strong reduction in uncertainty by using the asymptotic normalization coefficient as a constraint, particularly for those reactions most sensitive to ambiguities in the mean field. For those reactions, the importance of constraining the bound state interaction is equal to that of constraining the optical potentials. Furthermore, the case of 14 C is an outlier because the cross section is less sensitive to the nuclear interior. When minimal constraints are used on the parameters of the nucleon-target interaction, the 1σ uncertainties on the differential cross sections are large (~ 500-100%). However, if elastic-scattering data and the asymptotic normalization coefficient are used in the analysis, with an error of 10% (5%), this uncertainty reduces to ~ 30% (~ 15%).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electronic structure analysis and DFT benchmarking of Rydberg-type alkali-metal-crown ether, -cryptand, and -adamanzane complexes

Density functional theory (DFT) and electron propagator theory (EPT) calculations were performed to study ground and excited electronic structures of alkali-metal (M) coordinated 9-crown-3, 24-crown-8, [2.1.1]cryptand, o-Me 2 -1.1.1, and 3 6 Adamanzane complexes. Each complex bears an expanded electron in the periphery and occupies diffuse 1p-, 1d-, 1f-type molecular orbitals (or superatomic 1P, 1D, 1F orbitals) in excited electronic states. The calculated superatomic shell model of the M(9-crown-3) 2 is 1S, 1P, 1D, 1F, 2S, 2P, 2D, 1G and it is held by all other complexes up to the studied 1F level. Due to the highly diffuse nature of the electron, the ionization energies of these complexes are significantly lower (1.6–2.0 eV) and hence these complexes belong to the superalkali category. Further, the ab initio EPT ionization energy and the excitation energies of the Li(9-crown-3) 2 were used to evaluate DFT errors associated with a series of exchange correlation functionals that span multiple rungs of Jacob's ladder (i.e., GGA, meta-GGA, global GGA hybrid, meta-GGA hybrid, range-separated hybrid, double-hybrid). Among these, the best performing functional is the range-separated hybrid CAM-B3LYP and the errors are within 6% of high-level ab initio EPT results. The accuracy of CAM-B3LYP is indeed transferable to similar complexes and hence the findings are expected to accelerate the progression of studies of Rydberg-type systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of satellite Leaf Area Index in California vineyards for improving water use estimation

Remote sensing estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) directly quantifies plant water consumption and provides essential information for irrigation scheduling, which is a pressing need for California vineyards as extreme droughts become more frequent. Many ET models take satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) as a major input, but how uncertainties of LAI estimations propagate to ET and the partitioning between evaporation and transpiration is poorly understood. Here we assessed six satellite-based LAI estimation approaches using Landsat and Sentinel-2 images against ground measurements from four vineyards in California and evaluated ET sensitivity to LAI in the thermal-based two-source energy balance (TSEB) model. We found that radiative transfer modeling-based approaches predicted low to medium LAI well, but they significantly underestimated high LAI in highly clumped vine canopies (RMSE ~ 0.97 to 1.27). Cubist regression models trained with ground LAI measurements from all vineyards achieved high accuracy (RMSE ~ 0.3 to 0.48), but these empirical models did not generalize well between sites. Red edge bands and the related vegetation index (VI) from the Sentinel-2 satellite contain complementary information of LAI to VIs based on near-infrared and red bands. TSEB ET was more sensitive to positive LAI biases than negative ones. Positive LAI errors of 50% resulted in up to 50% changes in ET, while negative biases of 50% in LAI caused less than 10% deviations in ET. However, even when ET changes were minimal, negative LAI errors of 50% led to up to a 40% reduction in modeled transpiration, as soil evaporation and plant transpiration responded to LAI change divergently. These findings call for careful consideration of satellite LAI uncertainties for ET modeling, especially for the partitioning of water loss between vine and soil or cover crop for effective vineyard irrigation management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved guided-wave acoustic defect detection and localization in pipes under varying temperature conditions using deep learning

Early defect detection in pipelines is critical across industries, particularly in the oil and gas sector, where failures result in significant maintenance costs and operational disruptions. Acoustic guided-wave techniques are widely used for nondestructive evaluation of pipeline defects due to their long-distance propagation capability. However, environmental variations, sensitivity limitations, and complex signal interpretation challenges limit the effectiveness of traditional signal processing approaches with guided-wave signals. Recent advances in deep learning methods have demonstrated remarkable success in solving complex real-world problems in many fields. In particular, deep-learning-based signal processing holds substantial promise to overcome limitations and challenges of conventional signal processing. This study presents a deep learning framework for pipeline inspection using acoustic guided-wave signals under temperature varying environments. The proposed framework employs a dual-path one-dimensional convolutional autoencoder that combines defect detection, localization, and temperature prediction functions. The proposed system utilizes multi-mode and broadband acoustic waves with an optimized number of sensors that provide high accuracy while retaining practical simplicity. Experimental validation is performed on a carbon steel pipe. The results indicate exceptional defect detection accuracy and precise defect localization with a mean absolute error of 66 mm. The proposed technique also predicts the effective average temperature of the pipe with a mean absolute error of 0.2°C. Comparative analysis shows superior performance of the proposed method over a traditional method previously developed by the authors' team. These results highlight the potential of integrating deep learning methods into guided-wave pipeline inspection systems to improve reliability under varying environmental conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

MODELING AND PARAMETRIC STUDY OF END-GAS AUTOIGNITION TO ALLOW THE REALIZATION OF ULTRA-LOW EMISSIONS, HIGH-EFFICIENCY HEAVY-DUTY SPARK-IGNITED NATURAL GAS ENGINES

Engine knock and misfire are barriers to pathways leading to high-efficiency Spark-Ignited (SI) Natural Gas (NG) engines. The general tendency to knock is highly dependent on engine operating conditions and the fuel reactivity. The problem is further complicated by the low emission limits and the wide range of chemical reactivity in pipeline-quality natural gas. Depending on the region and the source of the natural gas, its reactivity, described by its Methane Number (MN), which is analogous to the Octane Number for liquid SI fuels, can span from 65 to 95. In order to realize diesel-like efficiencies, SI NG engines must be designed to operate at high Brake Mean Effective Pressures (BMEP), near or beyond knock limits, over a wide range of fuel reactivity. This requires a deep understanding of the combustion-engine interactions pertaining to flame propagation and End-Gas Autoignition (EGAI), i.e., the autoignition of the unburned gas (end gas) ahead of the flame front. However, EGAI, if controlled, provides an opportunity to increase SI NG engine efficiency by increasing the combustion rate and the total fraction of burned fuel, mitigating the effects of the slow flame speeds characteristic of natural gas fuels, which generally reduce BMEP and increase unburned hydrocarbon emissions. For this reason, to realize diesel-like efficiencies and ultra-low emissions on SI NG engines, this work proposes the study of the main parameters influencing the modeling and prediction of NG EGAI to allow for its control. In this work, a novel EGAI detection and onset determination method was developed to reliably quantify EGAI for data analysis and engine control. The new method allowed the prediction of EGAI on SI NG engines without the need to use engine- and operating-condition-dependent thresholds and reduced the error in quantifying the fraction of the total energy released by the EGAI event by up to 40%pts. One- and three-dimensional engine models were then developed to study the engine/fuel interactions that lead to NG EGAI and its performance benefits. These models, although having decent agreement with experimental data, showed the need to account for NOx chemistry when predicting NG EGAI due to a consistently later prediction of the EGAI onset (~1.65 crank-angle degrees) and thus, a new reduced chemical mechanism for real NG fuels was developed containing NOx chemistry. The new reduced mechanism improved the EGAI onset prediction agreement to within ±0.5 crank-angle degrees and decreased simulation time during combustion by nearly 50% when using the further reduced AREIS50NOx chemical mechanism. These models were then used to study the role of NG composition on EGAI, evaluate the engine/fuel interactions leading to NG EGAI, and perform engine optimization while leveraging EGAI to increase thermal efficiency. Piston design optimization combined with a Controlled EGAI (C-EGAI) combustion mode allowed a Heavy-Duty (HD) SI NG engine to operate at diesel-like efficiencies, i.e., Brake Thermal Efficiency (BTE) ≥44%. Experimental and modeling data analysis revealed that earlier and faster heat release increases combustion efficiency by an average of 1%pts, increases work transferred to the piston resulting in a decrease in exhaust losses by 50% depending on the engine operating condition while slightly increasing heat losses. Finally, the simulation results revealed an opportunity to further enhance the BTE (up to 50%) by enabling C-EGAI combustion at leaner conditions, λ=1.4-1.6.

Bestel, Diego Bernardi↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generalized analytical and numerical modeling of optical second harmonic generation in anisotropic crystals and complex heterostructures using #SHAARP package

Optical second harmonic generation (SHG) is a nonlinear optical effect widely used for nonlinear optical microscopy and laser frequency conversion. The closed-form analytical solution of the nonlinear optical responses is essential for evaluating the optical responses of new materials whose optical properties are unknown a priori. Many approximations have therefore been employed in the existing analytical approaches, such as slowly varying approximation, weak reflection of the nonlinear polarization, transparent medium, high crystallographic symmetry, Kleinman symmetry, easy crystal orientation along a high-symmetry direction, phase matching conditions and negligible interference among nonlinear waves, which may lead to large errors in the reported material properties. To avoid these approximations, here we have developed an open-source package named Second Harmonic Analysis of Anisotropic Rotational Polarimetry (#SHAARP) for single interface (si) and in multilayers (ml) for homogeneous crystals. The reliability and accuracy are established by experimentally benchmarking with both the SHG polarimetry and Maker fringes predicted from the package using standard materials. SHAARP.si and SHAARP.ml are available through GitHub https://github.com/Rui-Zu/SHAARP and https://github.com/bzw133/SHAARP.ml, respectively.

complex systems↗
DOE OSTI2023

Shadow energy functionals and potentials in Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics

In Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics (BOMD) simulations based on the density functional theory (DFT), the potential energy and the interatomic forces are calculated from an electronic ground state density that is determined by an iterative self-consistent field optimization procedure, which, in practice, never is fully converged. The calculated energies and forces are, therefore, only approximate, which may lead to an unphysical energy drift and instabilities. Here, we discuss an alternative shadow BOMD approach that is based on backward error analysis. Instead of calculating approximate solutions for an underlying exact regular Born–Oppenheimer potential, we do the opposite. Instead, we calculate the exact electron density, energies, and forces, but for an underlying approximate shadow Born–Oppenheimer potential energy surface. In this way, the calculated forces are conservative with respect to the approximate shadow potential and generate accurate molecular trajectories with long-term energy stabilities. We show how such shadow Born–Oppenheimer potentials can be constructed at different levels of accuracy as a function of the integration time step, δt, from the constrained minimization of a sequence of systematically improvable, but approximate, shadow energy density functionals. For each energy functional, there is a corresponding ground state Born–Oppenheimer potential. These pairs of shadow energy functionals and potentials are higher-level generalizations of the original “zeroth-level” shadow energy functionals and potentials used in extended Lagrangian BOMD. The proposed shadow energy functionals and potentials are useful only within this extended dynamical framework, where also the electronic degrees of freedom are propagated as dynamical field variables together with the atomic positions and velocities. The theory is quite general and can be applied to MD simulations using approximate DFT, Hartree–Fock, or semi-empirical methods, as well as to coarse-grained flexible charge models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Monitoring of corrosion effects in pipes with multi-mode acoustic signals

Current commercial long-range guided wave inspection and monitoring technologies for pipes usually require establishment of certain specific acoustic modes for wave propagation and use a large number of sensors in a certain geometric arrangement (for example, uniformly-spaced arrays of sensors on a collar, placed around a pipe). This paper, in contrast, presents a long-range corrosion detection method in pipes based on multi-mode guided acoustic waves, generated and received using simple, single-element sensors. In this technique, available guided wave modes in any interrogated zone of the structure are automatically down-selected by the medium, and changes in energy distribution over the selected modes are analyzed through signal processing to monitor material loss or addition. Here, to investigate the feasibility of the proposed method, we have performed both experimental and numerical simulation studies on 50.8-mm (2-in)-diameter schedule-40 carbon steel pipes. In these studies, a linear chirp signal is injected in compression mode, perpendicular to the surface of the pipe, generating multi-mode, multi-directional guided waves that travel within the pipe wall. Corrosion effects in the pipes are simulated numerically and experimentally. To reduce errors in the measurement technique due to changes in the local or global temperature of the measured media, a universal temperature compensation algorithm is introduced. The experimental results show good agreement with simulation results, indicating that the proposed multi-mode wave generation and detection in a pipe could be used for long-range detection and monitoring of corrosion effects, such as pipe wall losses or solid material deposits.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-informed grid refinement to improve traveltime accuracy in the regional seismic traveltime (RSTT) model

The regional seismic traveltime (RSTT) model predicts traveltimes of regional seismic phases accounting for 3-D structure of the crust and the upper mantle on a global scale. Previous versions of the RSTT model have been implemented using nodes separated by ∼1° spacing across the globe. A regional-scale study using regional Pn and Pg traveltimes across Israel and the Middle East demonstrated that data driven, systematic grid refinement reduces traveltime residuals and enhances resolution of smaller tectonic features in regions having dense ray coverage. High density Pn ray coverage in the western US, Europe, Middle East and East Asia can likewise provide the resolution that allows systematic global grid refinement of the RSTT model. In this study, we use a large number of Pn ray paths originating from events located with an epicentral location uncertainty of 25 km (GT25) or better. We conduct targeted grid refinements at 1.0°, 0.5°, 0.25° and 0.125° on a global scale, producing a refined RSTT model that yields a 21.6 per cent reduction in median event location error in Europe and the Middle East, when compared with the original global RSTT model presented in Begnaud et al. The new model also resolves finer tectonic structures in regions with high Pn ray density.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wave optics simulations for new soft x-ray beamlines at NSLS-II

In this work, we performed fully- and partially-coherent synchrotron emission and propagation simulations with the "Synchrotron Radiation Workshop" computer code to analyze the performance of two soft X-ray beamlines under development at the National Synchrotron Light Source II: Soft X-ray Nanoprobe (SXN), and Angle-Resolved Photoemission Spectroscopy (ARPES) and Resonant Inelastic X-ray Scattering (RIXS) Imaging (ARI). The SXN beamline intends to provide high flux and high spatial resolution coherent soft X-ray imaging capabilities using both zone plate and lensless coherent imaging techniques. The ARI beamline aims to perform high flux ARPES and RIXS experiments with a focal spot size at the sample approaching 100 nm using highly-demagnifying mirrors in Kirkpatrick-Baez geometry. To accurately calculate the resolution and the degree of X-ray coherence provided by the two state-of-the-art beamlines, partial coherence effects are required to be taken into account in wave optics simulations for these two beamlines. In this talk, beamline performance parameters such as spot size, degree of coherence, flux, and energy resolution at the sample are presented. The effects of mirror surface slope errors on beamline performance were studied and some suggestions for further optimization are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

FAIR Data and Interpretable AI Framework for Architectured Metamaterials (Final Report)

This research program established a transformative framework for the discovery and design of mechanical metamaterials, which are architected structures engineered to control physical phenomena like sound and vibration in ways natural materials cannot. To overcome the traditional reliance on trial-and-error, the project developed an interpretable Artificial Intelligence (AI) framework that moves beyond "black box" models to reveal the specific geometric patterns—such as "unit-cell templates"—that govern a material’s performance. A major breakthrough was the development of a hierarchical design method, which allows a single material to block vibrations across multiple frequency ranges simultaneously by layering patterns at different scales without them interfering with one another. This was further expanded to include irregular, graph-based designs that use spanning tree algorithms to ensure structural connectivity while allowing for customized, direction-dependent properties like stiffness and acoustic impedance. Beyond design, the project addressed the practicalities of real-world production by developing uncertainty quantification techniques that account for manufacturing defects and material variability, reducing the need for expensive physical testing by orders of magnitude. To speed up the discovery process, the team implemented Gaussian Process Regression and other surrogate models that provide accurate performance predictions at a fraction of the traditional computational cost. The AI-generated designs were successfully validated through fabrication of physical samples and wave propagation experiments, confirming their ability to accurately guide or reflect waves as predicted. By contributing these tools and high-quality FAIR benchmark datasets to the wider scientific community, this work provides a scalable foundation for advancing technologies in aerospace vibration control, medical imaging, and noise reduction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

BeyondPlanck: I. Global Bayesian analysis of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument data

We describe the BEYONDPLANCK project in terms of our motivation, methodology, and main products, and provide a guide to a set of companion papers that describe each result in more detail. Building directly on experience from ESA’s Planck mission, we implemented a complete end-to-end Bayesian analysis framework for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) observations. The primary product is a full joint posterior distribution P(ω | d), where ω represents the set of all free instrumental (gain, correlated noise, bandpass, etc.), astrophysical (synchrotron, free-free, thermal dust emission, etc.), and cosmological (cosmic microwave background – CMB – map, power spectrum, etc.) parameters. Some notable advantages of this approach compared to a traditional pipeline procedure are seamless end-to-end propagation of uncertainties; accurate modeling of both astrophysical and instrumental effects in the most natural basis for each uncertain quantity; optimized computational costs with little or no need for intermediate human interaction between various analysis steps; and a complete overview of the entire analysis process within one single framework. As a practical demonstration of this framework, we focus in particular on low-ℓ CMB polarization reconstruction with Planck LFI. In this process, we identify several important new effects that have not been accounted for in previous pipelines, including gain over-smoothing and time-variable and non-1/f correlated noise in the 30 and 44 GHz channels. Modeling and mitigating both previously known and newly discovered systematic effects, we find that all results are consistent with the ΛCDM model, and we constrained the reionization optical depth to τ = 0.066 ± 0.013, with a low-resolution CMB-based χ 2 probability to exceed of 32%. This uncertainty is about 30% larger than the official pipelines, arising from taking a more complete instrumental model into account. The marginal CMB solar dipole amplitude is 3362.7 ± 1.4 μK, where the error bar was derived directly from the posterior distribution without the need of any ad hoc instrumental corrections. We are currently not aware of any significant unmodeled systematic effects remaining in the Planck LFI data, and, for the first time, the 44 GHz channel is fully exploited in the current analysis. We argue that this framework can play a central role in the analysis of many current and future high-sensitivity CMB experiments, including LiteBIRD, and it will serve as the computational foundation of the emerging community-wide COSMOGLOBE effort, which aims to combine state-of-the-art radio, microwave, and submillimeter data sets into one global astrophysical model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

RSPECT: A PROSPECT-based model incorporating the real structure of rice leaves

Radiative transfer models (RTMs) describe how light is absorbed, scattered, and transmitted within leaves by simulating mechanistic light propagation processes. The PROSPECT model is based on measurable parameters (the leaf biochemical content) and a non-measurable parameter (the leaf anatomical structure represented by the leaf structure parameter (N)). The effect of N on the optical properties of leaves has been investigated through a number of local and global sensitivity analyses. Other studies have directly evaluated the effect of the leaf anatomical structure on spectral reflectance, particularly in the near infrared region. However, the relationship between N and the anatomical structure is unclear. Here, in this study, we leveraged eLeaf, a ray tracing-based 3D rice leaf simulator, to establish relationships between leaf anatomical features and spectral properties, enabling us to replace N in the PROSPECT-4 model with measurable leaf anatomical parameters and develop the RSPECT model. The leaf thickness at minor vein, leaf thickness at bulliform cells, mesophyll thickness at minor vein, and distance between two minor veins could be used to predict N effectively. The RSPECT model achieved spectral simulation accuracy comparable to PROSPECT-4 and was more suitable for parameter inversion of the physical and chemical properties of rice leaves, with relative root mean square errors of 7.4% for chlorophyll content, 5.6% for equivalent water thickness, and 7.5% for dry matter content. In conclusion, RSPECT improves radiative transfer modeling by integrating measurable anatomical features and provides a framework for extending this approach to other vegetation types.

hyperspectral↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bottomonium suppression and elliptic flow using Heavy Quarkonium Quantum Dynamics

We introduce a framework called Heavy Quarkonium Quantum Dynamics (HQQD) which can be used to compute the dynamical suppression of heavy quarkonia propagating in the quark-gluon plasma using real-time in-medium quantum evolution. Using HQQD we compute large sets of real-time solutions to the Schrödinger equation using a realistic in-medium complex-valued potential. We sample 2 million quarkonia wave packet trajectories and evolve them through the QGP using HQQD to obtain their survival probabilities. The computation is performed using three different HQQD model parameter sets in order to estimate our systematic uncertainty. After taking into account final state feed down we compare our results to existing experimental data for the suppression and elliptic flow of bottomonium states and find that HQQD predictions are good agreement with available data for R AA as a function of N part and p T collected at \( \sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}} \) = 5 . 02 TeV. In the case of v 2 for the various states, we find that the path-length dependence of ϒ(1 s ) suppression results in quite small v 2 for ϒ(1 s ). Our prediction for the integrated elliptic flow for ϒ(1 s ) in the 10 – 90% centrality class, which now includes an estimate of the systematic error, is v 2 [ϒ(1 s )] = 0 . 003 ± 0 . 0007 ± \( {}_{0.0013}^{0.0006} \) . We also find that, due to their increased suppression, excited bottomonium states have a larger elliptic flow. Based on this observation we make predictions for v 2 [ϒ(2 s )] and v 2 [ϒ(3 s )] as a function of centrality and transverse momentum.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty about the Uncertainty [Slides]

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable result in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates, in comparison to the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on the physics of the experiment, while measurement uncertainty depends on the measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). When data from one–of–a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It gives no information about the range, in which the true values of experiment would spread if the experiment was repeated. A frequently used approximation, that if a physical quantity is measured as a function of time, only measurement of this quantity, produces uncertainty is also in some real experiments fare to strong. Example: In reaction history time measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha dominated under certain conditions over the flux measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bounds on the Rate-Dependent Plastic Flow of Tantalum up to 75 GPa

In this study we report on the continued development of thermodynamics-based analysis of shock waves propagation with the objective of extracting information related to materials strength at high strain rates and pressures. Building on previous results reported for peak stresses of 10 GPa and 25 GPa, we present a series of three-step gas-gun shock experiments designed to explore the pressure and strain rate dependence of plastic flow in polycrystalline tantalum. These experiments at nominal peak stresses of 50 GPa and 75 GPa show the irreversible deformation before pullback to be almost entirely confined to the shock loading, with negligible plastic relaxation on the post-shock plateau. We also add a reverse-ballistics shot at 25 GPa, which was designed to reveal the pullback response with negligible interference from free-surface effects. General thermodynamic considerations allow us to place bounds on the plastic behavior even for parts of the curve that change far too rapidly for the velocimetric time resolution of (conservatively) ~ 5 ns. To analyze the data, we found it necessary to substantially improve the interpolation/extrapolation scheme in order to improve its robustness, flexibility and range of applicability. We describe the new scheme based on splines, as well as an extension of free-surface corrections to the post-shock rarefaction waves. Reanalysis with the new scheme produces results essentially within the error bars previously reported, showing that the known systematic errors associated with free-surface effects are relatively inconsequential for determining thermodynamic paths.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Systems Approach to Estimating the Uncertainty Limits of X-Ray Radiographic Metrology

Micro- and nanomanufacturing capabilities have rapidly expanded over the past decade to include complex three-dimensional (3D) structure fabrication; however, the metrology required to accurately assess these processes via part inspection and characterization has struggled to keep pace. X-ray computed tomography (CT) is considered an ideal candidate for providing the critically needed metrology on the smallest scales, especially internal features, or inaccessible regions. X-ray CT supporting micro- and nanomanufacturing often push against the poorly understood resolution and variation limits inherent to the machines, which can distort or hide fine structures. In this study, we have developed and experimentally verify a comprehensive analytical uncertainty propagation signal variation flow graph (SVFG) model for X-ray radiography in this work to better understand resolution and image variability limits on the small scale. The SVFG approach captures, quantifies, and predicts variations occurring in the system that limit metrology capabilities, particularly in the micro/nanodomain. This work is the first step to achieving full uncertainty modeling of CT reconstructions and provides insight into improving X-ray attenuation imaging systems. The SVFG methodology framework is applied to generate a complete basis set of functions describing the major sources of variation in radiographs. Five models are identified, covering variation in energy, intensity, length, blur, and position. Radiographic system experiments are defined to measure the parameters required by the SVFGs. Best practices are identified for these measurements. The SVFG models are confirmed via direct measurement of variation to predict variation within 30% on average.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗