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At least 307 records · Page 17

Impact of solids on composite materials

The failure modes of composite materials as a result of low velocity impact were investigated by simulating the impact with a finite element analysis. An important facet of the project is the modeling of the impact of a solid onto cylindrical shells composed of composite materials. The model under development will simulate the delamination sustained when a composite material encounters impact from another rigid body. The computer equipment was installed, the computer network tested, and a finite element method model was developed to compare results with known experimental data. The model simulated the impact of a steel rod onto a rotating shaft. Pre-processing programs (GMESH and TANVEL) were developed to generate node and element data for the input into the three dimensional, dynamic finite element analysis code (DYNA3D). The finite element mesh was configured with a fine mesh near the impact zone and a coarser mesh for the impacting rod and the regions surrounding the impacting zone. For the computer simulation, five impacting loads were used to determine the time history of the stresses, the scribed surface areas, and the amount of ridging. The processing time of the computer codes amounted from 1 to 4 days. The calculated surface area were within 6-12 percent, relative error when compated to the actual scratch area.

Bronson, Arturo↗

A non-linear mathematical model for dynamic analysis of spur gears including shaft and bearing dynamics

A six-degree-of-freedom nonlinear semi-definite model with time varying mesh stiffness has been developed for the dynamic analysis of spur gears. The model includes a spur gear pair, two shafts, two inertias representing load and prime mover, and bearings. As the shaft and bearing dynamics have also been considered in the model, the effect of lateral-torsional vibration coupling on the dynamics of gears can be studied. In the nonlinear model developed several factors such as time varying mesh stiffness and damping, separation of teeth, backlash, single- and double-sided impacts, various gear errors and profile modifications have been considered. The dynamic response to internal excitation has been calculated by using the 'static transmission error method' developed. The software prepared (DYTEM) employs the digital simulation technique for the solution, and is capable of calculating dynamic tooth and mesh forces, dynamic factors for pinion and gear, dynamic transmission error, dynamic bearing forces and torsions of shafts. Numerical examples are given in order to demonstrate the effect of shaft and bearing dynamics on gear dynamics.

Ozguven, H. Nevzat↗

Generation Mechanisms UV and X-ray Emissions During SL9 Impact

The purpose of this grant was to study the ultraviolet and X-ray emissions associated with the impact of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 with Jupiter. The University of Michigan task was primarily focused on theoretical calculations. The NAGW-4788 subtask was to be largely devoted to determining the constraints placed by the X-ray observations on the physical mechanisms responsible for the generation of the X-rays. Author summarized below the ROSAT observations and suggest a physical mechanism that can plausibly account for the observed emissions. It is hoped that the full set of activities can be completed at a later date. Further analysis of the ROSAT data acquired at the time of the impact was necessary to define the observational constraints on the magnetospheric-ionospheric processes involved in the excitation of the X-ray emissions associated with the fragment impacts. This analysis centered around improvements in the pointing accuracy and improvements in the timing information. Additional pointing information was made possible by the identification of the optical counterparts to the X-ray sources in the ROSAT field-of-view. Due to the large number of worldwide observers of the impacts, a serendipitous visible plate image from an observer in Venezuela provided a very accurate location of the present position of the X-ray source, virtually eliminating pointing errors in the data. Once refined, the pointing indicated that the two observed X-ray brightenings that were highly correlated in time with the K and P2 events were brightenings of the X-ray aurora (as identified in images prior to the impact).Appendix A "ROSAT observations of X-ray emissions from Jupiter during the impact of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9' also included.

Waite, J. Hunter, Jr.↗

Generating Accurate Urban Area Maps from Nighttime Satellite (DMSP/OLS) Data

There has been an increasing interest by the international research community to use the nighttime acquired "city-lights" data sets collected by the US Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan system to study issues relative to urbanization. Many researchers are interested in using these data to estimate human demographic parameters over large areas and then characterize the interactions between urban development , natural ecosystems, and other aspects of the human enterprise. Many of these attempts rely on an ability to accurately identify urbanized area. However, beyond the simple determination of the loci of human activity, using these data to generate accurate estimates of urbanized area can be problematic. Sensor blooming and registration error can cause large overestimates of urban land based on a simple measure of lit area from the raw data. We discuss these issues, show results of an attempt to do a historical urban growth model in Egypt, and then describe a few basic processing techniques that use geo-spatial analysis to threshold the DMSP data to accurately estimate urbanized areas. Algorithm results are shown for the United States and an application to use the data to estimate the impact of urban sprawl on sustainable agriculture in the US and China is described.

Imhoff, Marc↗

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). Part III: Simulated Observables - The Return of the Spectrum

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) is a community project that aims to quantify how differences in general circulation models (GCMs) could impact the climate prediction for TRAPPIST-le and, subsequently its atmospheric characterization in transit. Four GCMs have participated in THAI so far: ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D and the UM. This paper, focused on the simulated observations, is the third part of a trilogy, following the analysis of two land planet scenarios (part I) and two aquaplanet scenarios (part II). Here, we show a robust agreement between the simulated spectra and the number of transits estimated to detect the land planet atmospheres. For the cloudy aquaplanet ones, a 5-σ detection of CO2 could be achieved in about 10 transits if the atmosphere contains at least 1 bar of CO2. That number can vary by 41- 56% depending on the GCM used to predict the terminator profiles, principally due to differences in the cloud deck altitude, with ExoCAM and LMD-G producing higher clouds than ROCKE-3D and UM. Therefore, for the first time, this work provides "GCM uncertainty error bars" of ~ 50% that need to be considered in future analyses of transmission spectra. We also analyzed the inter-transit variability induced by weather patterns and changes of terminator cloudiness between transits. Its magnitude differs significantly between the GCMs but its impact on the transmission spectra is within the measurement uncertainties. THAI has demonstrated the importance of model intercomparison for exoplanets and also paved the way for a larger project to develop an intercomparison meta-framework, namely the Climates Using Interactive Suites of Intercomparisons Nested for Exoplanet Studies (CUISINES).

Exoplanet atmospheres↗

Influence of structural and aerodynamic modeling on optimization with flutter constraint

The influences of structural and aerodynamic modeling on multidisciplinary optimization in an aeroelastic environment are not well understood. Therefore, optimizations with flutter and frequency constraints were performed to investigate the effects these modeling factors have on various representative wings. To this end, the Automated Structural Optimization System (ASTROS) was used as a tool to minimize the weight of various fully built-up finite element wing models in subsonic and supersonic flow under given flutter and frequency constraints. First, the performance of the optimization module was tested against results from other codes on a straight and uniform wing widely used for optimization with flutter constraints. Then, fully built-up finite element models of various wings with different aspect ratios were investigated for the influence on the structural optimization for minimum weight of the following modeling factors: finite element selection, structural grid refinement; number of selected modes, retention of breathing modes; selection of reduced frequencies to be used in flutter analysis; aerodynamic panel size and placement; splining of the aerodynamic grid to the structural grid selection of extra points of the structural wing box for splining; and number of constraints to be retained. Knowledge of these influences as well as of the program behavior is important, since optimization can be made more efficient by the selection of reasonable initial models. Also, it was shown previously that modeling has an impact on the results of modal and aeroelastic analyses. Thus, if modeling errors can negatively affect the analyses, a minimum weight optimization can be jeopardized and result in an optimal design that is rather unreliable. In the following, selected results are presented and the influences of some modeling parameters on optimization are pointed out.

Striz, Alfred G.↗

Aerosol Observability and Predictability: From Research to Operations for Chemical Weather Forecasting. Lagrangian Displacement Ensembles for Aerosol Data Assimilation

A challenge common to many constituent data assimilation applications is the fact that one observes a much smaller fraction of the phase space that one wishes to estimate. For example, remotely sensed estimates of the column average concentrations are available, while one is faced with the problem of estimating 3D concentrations for initializing a prognostic model. This problem is exacerbated in the case of aerosols because the observable Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is not only a column integrated quantity, but it also sums over a large number of species (dust, sea-salt, carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols. An aerosol transport model when driven by high-resolution, state-of-the-art analysis of meteorological fields and realistic emissions can produce skillful forecasts even when no aerosol data is assimilated. The main task of aerosol data assimilation is to address the bias arising from inaccurate emissions, and Lagrangian misplacement of plumes induced by errors in the driving meteorological fields. As long as one decouples the meteorological and aerosol assimilation as we do here, the classic baroclinic growth of error is no longer the main order of business. We will describe an aerosol data assimilation scheme in which the analysis update step is conducted in observation space, using an adaptive maximum-likelihood scheme for estimating background errors in AOD space. This scheme includes e explicit sequential bias estimation as in Dee and da Silva. Unlikely existing aerosol data assimilation schemes we do not obtain analysis increments of the 3D concentrations by scaling the background profiles. Instead we explore the Lagrangian characteristics of the problem for generating local displacement ensembles. These high-resolution state-dependent ensembles are then used to parameterize the background errors and generate 3D aerosol increments. The algorithm has computational complexity running at a resolution of 1/4 degree, globally. We will present the result of assimilating AOD retrievals from MODIS (on both Aqua and TERRA satellites) from AERONET for validation. The impact on the GEOS-5 Aerosol Forecasting will be fully documented.

da Silva, Arlindo↗

Assessment of MODIS Thermal Emissive Band On-Orbit Calibration

Sixteen Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer thermal emissive bands (TEBs) cover the wavelength from 3.75 to 14.24 m. TEB calibration uses data collected from the detector responses to the onboard blackbody (BB) and space view. The BB was designed to operate either at a constant temperature for detector linear gain calibration or at temperatures varying from ambient ( 270 K) to 315 K for on-orbit characterization of nonlinear coefficients. In this paper, we assess TEB on-orbit calibration performance in two aspects: One is to review the calibration trending on the orbital, daily, and multiyear timescales, and the other is to analyze the on-orbit calibration radiance uncertainty and its impact on the calibration. The calibration trending confirms the detector response dependence on the instrument temperature. The temperature trending and prelaunch characterization provide the basis for determining the calibration radiance source temperature range and uncertainties. An analytical approach was used to assess the impacts of onboard radiance uncertainties. The BB emission uncertainty, resulting from the temperature measurement error and emissivity uncertainty, causes a calibration uncertainty up to 0.3%, a value decreasing with the band wavelength. The BB nonblackness effect is analyzed and found to be insignificant. For the band with the lowest BB emissivity, the nonblackness affects the calibration radiance by less than 0.08%. The cavity emission uncertainty and the scan-mirror emission uncertainty both cause a less than 0.1% calibration uncertainty. The analysis of the nonlinear calibration coefficient uncertainty shows that its effect on the low Earth-view brightness-temperature range varies by band and is generally insignificant.

Chang, Tiejun↗

Cislunar Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit for Human Space Exploration

In order to conduct sustained human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), spacecraft systems are designed to operate in a series of missions of increasing complexity. Regardless of the destination, Moon, Mars, asteroids or beyond, there is a substantial set of common objectives that must be met. Many orbit characterization studies have endeavored to evaluate the potential locations in cislunar space that are favorable for meeting common human exploration objectives in a stepwise approach. Multiple studies, by both NASA and other international space agencies, have indicated that Earth-­‐moon libration point orbits are attractive candidates for staging operations in the proving ground and beyond. In particular, the Near Rectilinear Orbit (NRO) has been demonstrated to meet multi-­‐mission and multi-­‐destination architectural constraints. However, a human mission to a selected NRO presents a variety of new challenges for mission planning. While a growing number of robotic missions have completed successful operations to various specific libration point orbits, human missions have never been conducted to orbits of this class. Human missions have unique challenges that differ significantly from robotic missions, including a lower tolerance for mission risk and additional operational constraints that are associated only with human spacecraft. In addition, neither robotic nor human missions have been operated in the NRO regime specifically, and NROs exhibit dynamical characteristics that can differ significantly as compared to other halo orbits. Finally, multi-­‐body orbits, such as libration point orbits, are identified to exist in a simplified orbit model known as the Circular Restricted Three Body Problem (CRTBP) and must then be re-­‐solved in the full ephemeris model. As a result, the behavior of multi-­‐body orbits cannot be effectively characterized within the classical two-­‐body orbit dynamics framework more familiar to the human spaceflight community. In fact, a given NRO is not identified by a set of Keplerian orbit parameters, and a valid epoch specific state vector must be first obtained from a multi-body dynamical model. In this paper, the significant performance and operational challenges of conducting human missions to the NRO are evaluated. First, a systematic process for generating full ephemeris based ballistic NROs of various families is outlined to demonstrate the relative ease in which a multi-­‐revolution orbit can be found for any epoch and for various orbit geometries. In the Earth-­‐Moon system, NROs, which are halo orbits with close passage over a lunar pole, can exist with respect to libration point 1 (L1) or libration point 2 (L2) and are either from a North or South family orbit class with respect to the ecliptic. Second, the ability to maintain the orbit over the lifetime of a habitat mission by applying a reliable station-keeping strategy is investigated. The NRO, while similar to the quasi-­‐halo orbits that the Artemis mission flew, requires an updated station keeping strategy. This is due to several dynamical differences such as the increased relative stability of the NRO compared to other halo orbits and the close passage over the lunar surface as shown in Figure 1. Multiple station-keeping strategies are being investigated to ensure a human spacecraft remains on a predictable path. As the NRO is not described in simple two-­‐body parameters, analysis must determine the best strategy for targeting a reference NRO as well as how closely a future state should be constrained. In addition, costs will be minimized by determining maneuver directionality based on an identified pattern in the optimal station-keeping solutions or an analytically derived relationship. The candidate station-keeping algorithm must be stable and robust to environmental and vehicle uncertainties as well to navigation estimation and flight control execution errors. To that end, navigation accuracies, the impact on the station-keeping execution errors as well as other vehicle uncertainties need to be assessed. Starting with Orion, current navigation accuracies are evaluated and then navigation requirements are derived assuming a desired station-keeping propellant budget. Third, the performance requirements to and from the NRO are evaluated. Important parameters for developing expected propellant costs include epoch of operation, size and type of NRO, Earth departure and return constraints, as well as abort or early-­‐return capability. Finally, rendezvous and proximity operations are vital aspects of multi-­‐mission human exploration endeavors. The ability to conduct rendezvous and the associated propellant costs are assessed as well as the impacts of various profile assumptions including the location within the NRO the rendezvous is performed. The results of these studies will influence plans for international cooperation on both nearer term proving ground missions and beyond.

Whitley, Ryan↗

Sensitivity Analysis for Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CO2 Retrieval

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a thermal infrared sensor able to retrieve the daily atmospheric state globally for clear as well as partially cloudy field-of-views. The AIRS spectrometer has 2378 channels sensing from 15.4 micrometers to 3.7 micrometers, of which a small subset in the 15 micrometers region has been selected, to date, for CO2 retrieval. To improve upon the current retrieval method, we extended the retrieval calculations to include a prior estimate component and developed a channel ranking system to optimize the channels and number of channels used. The channel ranking system uses a mathematical formalism to rapidly process and assess the retrieval potential of large numbers of channels. Implementing this system, we identifed a larger optimized subset of AIRS channels that can decrease retrieval errors and minimize the overall sensitivity to other iridescent contributors, such as water vapor, ozone, and atmospheric temperature. This methodology selects channels globally by accounting for the latitudinal, longitudinal, and seasonal dependencies of the subset. The new methodology increases accuracy in AIRS CO2 as well as other retrievals and enables the extension of retrieved CO2 vertical profiles to altitudes ranging from the lower troposphere to upper stratosphere. The extended retrieval method for CO2 vertical profile estimation using a maximum-likelihood estimation method. We use model data to demonstrate the beneficial impact of the extended retrieval method using the new channel ranking system on CO2 retrieval.

sensitivity analysis↗

Improved modeling of GPS selective availability

Selective Availability (SA) represents the dominant error source for stand-alone users of the Global Positioning System (GPS). Even for DGPS, SA mandates the update rate required for a desired level of accuracy in realtime applications. As was witnessed in the recent literature, the ability to model this error source is crucial to the proper evaluation of GPS-based systems. A variety of SA models were proposed to date; however, each has its own shortcomings. Most of these models were based on limited data sets or data which were corrupted by additional error sources. A comprehensive treatment of the problem is presented. The phenomenon of SA is discussed and a technique is presented whereby both clock and orbit components of SA are identifiable. Extensive SA data sets collected from Block 2 satellites are presented. System Identification theory then is used to derive a robust model of SA from the data. This theory also allows for the statistical analysis of SA. The stationarity of SA over time and across different satellites is analyzed and its impact on the modeling problem is discussed.

Braasch, Michael S.↗

Optical Time Transfer for Bistatic SAR Spacecraft

A spacecraft-to-spacecraft optical time-transfer simulation has been developed as a tool for informing NASA’s Surface Deformation and Change (SDC) mission architecture. The SDC mission will combine radar images from multiple spacecraft to improve understanding of the Earth’s sea-level and landscape changes. Spacecraft must be precisely synchronized in order to create sharp radar images. Simulation of multiple spacecraft time-synchronizing via laser communication can inform technology choices of a mission by providing a picosecond-precision level estimate of clock error. This timing and ranging simulation has been combined with a radar system performance analysis pipeline. The simulated timing errors are used to predict performance of bistatic SAR systems in the presence of oscillator noise and time synchronization in accuracy. This analysis includes both analytic approximation equations from existing literature, and a numerical radar simulation to extract key system performance parameters like phase error and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR)degradation. Precision time-transfer techniques facilitate the accurate synchronization of clocks between any combination of terminals. Most time-transfer technology for comparing two clocks at different terminals use radio frequencies (RF) to measure the time delay between the sending and receiving of signals. Laser technology offers the capability to transmit high data rates with systems that are of smaller size and lower power than comparable RF systems. The clocks on independent spacecraft will have some phase and frequency errors between them that result in clock drift. The two clock models that are included in this bi-directional MATLAB simulation are a cesium-based Chip-Scale Atomic Clock (CSAC) and a rubidium-based Miniature Atomic Clock (MAC). The CSAC has flown as hardware for small satellite missions such as the University of Florida’s CHOMPTT mission. A study of example orbits, including that of NASA NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar Mission (NISAR) mission, and lasing rates demonstrate the impact of flight configuration parameters on the synchronization error between two spacecraft. The MATLAB timing simulation uses a Runge-Kutta 4th-order method to propagate spacecraft orbits and computes the light-travel time estimate between them. The simulation outputs the estimated range and estimated clock error based on a user-defined spacecraft cluster configuration. The radar simulation and analytic approximations are applied to evaluate a potential future NASA bistatic SAR constellation architecture. In the proposed architecture, satellites follow each other in the same orbit at 800 km altitude, with a 210 km baseline. We also baseline the CSAC as an ultra stable oscillator, and use NASA’s NISAR for baseline radar system parameters to compute a clock-system introduced phase error of 5.6 degrees without synchronization by frequent time transfer. We build on this base case with a sensitivity analysis of radar performance over a proposed range of constellation and radar system parameters. With this analysis pipeline, we comment on which radar parameters should or should not be changed to minimize synchronization requirements. This analysis technique could be extended or modified to evaluate the timing requirements of other geometries for other future multistatic SAR missions, or other interferometric satellite missions.

Surface Deformation and Change↗

Space-based Doppler lidar sampling strategies: Algorithm development and simulated observation experiments

Lidar Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) Simulation Models (LSM) were developed to evaluate the potential impact of global wind observations on the basic understanding of the Earth's atmosphere and on the predictive skills of current forecast models (GCM and regional scale). Fully integrated top to bottom LAWS Simulation Models for global and regional scale simulations were developed. The algorithm development incorporated the effects of aerosols, water vapor, clouds, terrain, and atmospheric turbulence into the models. Other additions include a new satellite orbiter, signal processor, line of sight uncertainty model, new Multi-Paired Algorithm and wind error analysis code. An atmospheric wind field library containing control fields, meteorological fields, phenomena fields, and new European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) data was also added. The LSM was used to address some key LAWS issues and trades such as accuracy and interpretation of LAWS information, data density, signal strength, cloud obscuration, and temporal data resolution.

Emmitt, G. D.↗

An empirically derived figure of merit for the quality of overall task performance

The need to develop an operationally relevant figure of merit for the quality of performance of a complex system such as an aircraft cockpit stems from a hypothesized dissociation between measures of performance and those of workload. Performance can be measured in terms of time, errors, or a combination of these. In most tasks performed by expert operators, errors are relatively rare and often corrected in time to avoid consequences. Moreover, perfect performance is seldom necessary to accomplish a particular task. Moreover, how well an expert performs a complex task consisting of a series of discrete cognitive tasks superimposed on a continuous task, such as flying an aircraft, does not depend on how well each discrete task is performed, but on their smooth sequencing. This makes the amount of time spent on each subtask of paramount importance in measuring overall performance, since smooth sequencing requires a minimum amount of time spent on each task. Quality consists in getting tasks done within a crucial time interval while maintaining acceptable continuous task performance. Thus, a figure of merit for overall quality of performance should be primarily a measure of time to perform discrete subtasks combined with a measure of basic vehicle control. Thus, the proposed figure of merit requires doing a task analysis on a series of performance, or runs, of a particular task, listing each discrete task and its associated time, and calculating the mean and standard deviation of these times, along with the mean and standard deviation of tracking error for the whole task. A set of simulator data on 30 runs of a landing task was obtained and a figure of merit will be calculated for each run. The figure of merit will be compared for voice and data link, so that the impact of this technology on total crew performance (not just communication performance) can be assessed. The effect of data link communication on other cockpit tasks will also be considered.

Lemay, Moira↗

Accurate Realization of GPS Vertical Global Reference Frame

The few millimeter per year level accuracy of radial global velocity estimates with the Global Positioning System (GPS) is at least an order of magnitude poorer than the accuracy of horizontal global motions. An improvement in the accuracy of radial global velocities would have a very positive impact on a number of geophysical studies of current general interest such as global sea-level and climate change, coastal hazards, glacial isostatic adjustment, atmospheric and oceanic loading, glaciology and ice mass variability, tectonic deformation and volcanic inflation, and geoid variability. The goal of this project is to improve our current understanding of GPS error sources associated with estimates of radial velocities at global scales. GPS error sources relevant to this project can be classified in two broad categories: (1) those related to the analysis of the GPS phase observable, and (2) those related to the combination of the positions and velocities of a set of globally distributed stations as determined from the analysis of GPS data important aspect in the first category include the effect on vertical rate estimates due to standard analysis choices, such as orbit modeling, network geometry, ambiguity resolution, as well as errors in models (or simply the lack of models) for clocks, multipath, phase-center variations, atmosphere, and solid-Earth tides. The second category includes the possible methods of combining and defining terrestrial reference flames for determining vertical velocities in a global scale. The latter has been the subject of our research activities during this reporting period.

Elosegui, Pedro↗

Analysis of faults in an N-version software experiment

The authors have conducted a large-scale experiment in N-version programming. A total of 27 versions of a program were prepared independently from the same specification at two universities. The results of executing the versions revealed that the versions were individually extremely reliable but that the number of input cases in which more than one failed was substantially more than would be expected if they were statistically independent. After the versions had been executed, the failures of each version were examined and the associated faults located. The analysis showed that in some cases the programmers made equivalent logical errors, indicating that some parts of the problem were simply more difficult than others. The authors also found cases in which apparently different logical errors yielded faults that caused statistically correlated failures, indicating that there are special cases in the input space that present difficulty in various parts of the solution. A formal model is presented to explain this phenomenon. It appears that minor differences in the software development environment would not have a major impact in reducing the incidence of faults that cause correlated failures.

Brilliant, Susan S.↗

Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmosphere Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: How Well Can We Quantify Hydrologic and Radiative Responses?

The continuing debate over feedback mechanisms governing tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and tropical climate in general has highlighted the diversity of potential checks and balances within the climate system. Competing feedbacks due to changes in surface evaporation, water vapor, and cloud long- and shortwave radiative properties each may serve critical roles in stabilizing or destabilizing the climate system. It is also intriguing that even those climate variations having origins internal to the climate system-- changes in ocean heat transport for example, apparently require complementary equilibrating effects by changes in atmospheric energy fluxes. Perhaps the best observational evidence of this is the relatively invariant nature of tropically averaged net radiation exiting the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) as measured by broadband satellite sensors over the past two decades. Thus, analyzing how these feedback mechanisms are operating within the context of current interannual variability may offer considerable insight for anticipating future climate change. In this paper we focus on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). Our analysis makes use a number of data bases, principally those derived from space-based measurements, to explore systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes, A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data set reveals errors in the surface longwave emission due to use of biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows subsequent use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative beating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 Wm-2 per K of SST change. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. Corresponding radiative fluxes seem systematically smaller resulting in a enhanced (suppressed) export of energy from the tropical ocean regions during warm (cold) SST events. Discussion of likely errors due to sampling and measurement strategies are discussed along with their impacts on our conclusions.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Evaluating Lunar Descent and Landing Performance From a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit Using Linear Covariance Resetting Techniques

Upcoming lunar programs are striving the achieve precision landing in a safe and robust manner. Various elements impact this mission objective ranging from on-orbit operations with ground station tracking to incorporating relative sensors with hazard detection and avoidance (HDA) to support the final approach and landing phase. Modeling the impacts of ground tracking, trajectory replanning, relative navigation sensors, and particularly a potential HDA system on the integrated closed-loop GN\&C system performance poses a unique challenge due to the complexity and interaction with multiple facets of the vehicle including the trajectory design, sensing hardware, navigation system, guidance and targeting, and the overall mission concept of operations. This paper outlines techniques to systematically analyze and compare the performance impacts of ground tracking and replanning and an HDA system where the onboard navigation errors are reset or uploaded from an external source and the vehicle's reference trajectory is regenerated requiring the system dispersions to also be reset to reflect this in-flight profile adjustment. To illustrate the application of these general techniques for analyzing the performance impacts due to incorporating these resetting events, they are demonstrated with a human lunar descent and landing scenario starting from a near rectilinear halo orbit (NRHO) until the vehicle precisely reaches its predetermined landing site on the lunar surface. Performance metrics such as inertial and relative navigation errors, trajectory dispersions, footprint dispersions, and propellant usage are provided.

GN&C↗