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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Distilling Knowledge from Ensembles of Cluster-Constrained-Attention Multiple-Instance Learners for Whole Slide Image Classification

The peculiar nature of whole slide imaging (WSI), digitizing conventional glass slides to obtain multiple high resolution images which capture microscopic details of a patient’s histopathological features, has garnered increased interest from the computer vision research community over the last two decades. Given the unique computational space and time complexity inherent to gigapixel-size whole slide image data, researchers have proposed novel machine learning algorithms to aid in the performance of diagnostic tasks in clinical pathology. One effective algorithm represents a Whole slide image as a bag of smaller image patches, which can be represented as low-dimension image patch embeddings. Weakly supervised deep-learning methods, such as cluster-constrained-attention multiple instance learning (CLAM), have shown promising results when combined with image patch embeddings. While traditional ensemble classifiers yield improved task performance, such methods come with a steep cost in model complexity. Through knowledge distillation, it is possible to retain some performance improvements from an ensemble, while minimizing costs to model complexity. In this work, we implement a weakly supervised ensemble using clustering-constrained-attention multiple-instance learners (CLAM), which uses attention and instance-level clustering to identify task salient regions and feature extraction in whole slides. By applying logit-based and attention-based knowledge distillation, we show it is possible to retain some performance improvements resulting from the ensemble at zero cost to model complexity.

Alamudun, Folami↗
DOE OSTI2021

Galaxy Zoo DECaLS: Detailed visual morphology measurements from volunteers and deep learning for 314,000 galaxies

We present Galaxy Zoo DECaLS: detailed visual morphological classifications for Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey images of galaxies within the SDSS DR8 footprint. Deeper DECaLS images (r = 23.6 versus r = 22.2 from SDSS) reveal spiral arms, weak bars, and tidal features not previously visible in SDSS imaging. To best exploit the greater depth of DECaLS images, volunteers select from a new set of answers designed to improve our sensitivity to mergers and bars. Galaxy Zoo volunteers provide 7.5 million individual classifications over 314 000 galaxies. 140 000 galaxies receive at least 30 classifications, sufficient to accurately measure detailed morphology like bars, and the remainder receive approximately 5. All classifications are used to train an ensemble of Bayesian convolutional neural networks (a state-of-the-art deep learning method) to predict posteriors for the detailed morphology of all 314 000 galaxies. We use active learning to focus our volunteer effort on the galaxies which, if labelled, would be most informative for training our ensemble. When measured against confident volunteer classifications, the trained networks are approximately 99 per cent accurate on every question. Morphology is a fundamental feature of every galaxy; our human and machine classifications are an accurate and detailed resource for understanding how galaxies evolve.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Atomistic learning in the electronically grand-canonical ensemble

Abstract A strategy is presented for the machine-learning emulation of electronic structure calculations carried out in the electronically grand-canonical ensemble. The approach relies upon a dual-learning scheme, where both the system charge and the system energy are predicted for each image. The scheme is shown to be capable of emulating basic electrochemical reactions at a range of potentials, and coupling it with a bootstrap-ensemble approach gives reasonable estimates of the prediction uncertainty. The method is also demonstrated to accelerate saddle-point searches, and to extrapolate to systems with one to five water layers. We anticipate that this method will allow for larger length- and time-scale simulations necessary for electrochemical simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial pattern of lake evaporation increases under global warming linked to regional hydroclimate change

Abstract Lakes are critical natural resources that are vulnerable to climate change. In a warmer climate, lake evaporation is projected to increase globally, but with substantial variation between regions. Here, based on ensemble projections of climate and lake models and an attribution method, we show that future lake evaporation increase is strongly modulated by regional hydroclimate change. Specifically, a drying hydroclimate will amplify evaporation increase by enlarging surface vapor pressure deficit and reducing cloud shortwave reflection. Future lake evaporation increase is amplified in tropical America, the Mediterranean and Southeast China with drier future hydroclimates, and dampened in high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau with wetter future hydroclimates. Such spatially coupled changes in lake evaporation and hydroclimate have important implications on regional lake water balance and volume change, which can aggravate water scarcity and flood risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Penalized ensemble Kalman filters for high dimensional non-linear systems

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a data assimilation technique that uses an ensemble of models, updated with data, to track the time evolution of a usually non-linear system. It does so by using an empirical approximation to the well-known Kalman filter. However, its performance can suffer when the ensemble size is smaller than the state space, as is often necessary for computationally burdensome models. This scenario means that the empirical estimate of the state covariance is not full rank and possibly quite noisy. To solve this problem in this high dimensional regime, we propose a computationally fast and easy to implement algorithm called the penalized ensemble Kalman filter (PEnKF). Under certain conditions, it can be theoretically proven that the PEnKF will be accurate (the estimation error will converge to zero) despite having fewer ensemble members than state dimensions. Further, as contrasted to localization methods, the proposed approach learns the covariance structure associated with the dynamical system. These theoretical results are supported with simulations of several non-linear and high dimensional systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Systems and methods for modeling water quality

A system, method, device and computer-readable medium for creating an ensemble model of water quality. The ensemble model is generated by determining a set of optimal component models for spectral regions of a body of water, and combining the optimal models. The optimal models can be based on remote sensing data, including satellite imagery. A K-fold partition approach or a global approach can be used to determine the optimal component models, and the optimal component models can be combined through spectral space partition rules to generate an ensemble model of water quality. The ensemble model not only has improved water quality prediction ability, but also has strong spatial and temporal extensibility. The spatial and temporal extensibility of the ensemble model is fundamentally important and desirable for long-term and large-scale remote sensing monitoring and assessment of water quality.

Liu, Hongxing↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calibration and Uncertainty Estimation Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with a Large Subsurface Flow and Transport Model - 20321

At routinely monitored groundwater contamination sites, periodically measured environmental conditions such as groundwater levels and contaminant concentrations are used to inform and confirm a conceptual site model (CSM) and guide the development and calibration of a numerical groundwater flow and transport model. The calibration of groundwater flow and transport models after each measurement (sampling) event can illuminate deficiencies in a CSM, identify areas where additional monitoring is warranted, and predict the behavior of the system to guide decision making. However, manual and automated (e.g. PEST) model calibration tools can be time-consuming and computationally expensive to implement after each sampling event. Perhaps as a result, such calibration tools generally utilize all available monitoring data simultaneously rather than sequentially assimilating monitoring data one sampling event at a time as the results from sampling become available. A more real-time data assimilation approach may reduce parameter uncertainty, quantify the value of additional monitoring data, and produce a usable model more quickly and with less effort. To mitigate the potential time-consuming aspects of manual and widely applied automated calibration techniques, a data assimilation algorithm called the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was evaluated as a relatively efficient method of model calibration and uncertainty assessment via the sequential integration of monitoring data into a model. The EnKF was able to successfully and efficiently assimilate monitoring and modeling data to calibrate a complex flow and transport model at a real-world site with significant subsurface heterogeneity, uncertainty, and 12 years of monitoring data (over 4,000 individual measurements of groundwater levels and over 2,500 measurements of contaminant concentrations). Starting with an uncalibrated model data from annual sampling events were sequentially assimilated, and the resultant predication errors and estimated parameter uncertainties were tracked. After all monitoring data were assimilated, both flow and transport residuals at the end of the EnKF process were comparable to those produced via a concurrent PEST calibration effort but required fewer model simulations. Both uncertainty and prediction errors decreased over time. In a real-time application, the adequacy of the model could be assessed after each sampling event. The benefits of such a real-time approach to utilizing monitoring data include reduced costs (in the form of model updates or site characterization efforts), early flagging of possible errors in the CSM, and a reduced risk of overfitting and corresponding increased confidence in model predictions. This tool may be particularly useful compared to other calibration techniques (e.g. manual, PEST) when model runtimes are long, calibration parameters are many, or parameter uncertainty is large. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian reduced-order deep learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by partial differential equations

We propose a reduced-order deep-learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by time-dependent partial differential equations. This method employs space–time Karhunen–Loève expansions (KLEs) of the state variables and space-dependent KLEs of space-varying parameters to identify the reduced (latent) dimensions. Subsequently, a deep neural network (DNN) is used to map the parameter latent space to the state variable latent space. An approximate Bayesian method is developed for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the proposed KL-DNN surrogate model. The KL-DNN method is tested for the linear advection–diffusion and nonlinear diffusion equations, and the Bayesian approach for UQ is compared with the deep ensembling (DE) approach, commonly used for quantifying uncertainty in DNN models. It was found that the approximate Bayesian method provides a more informative distribution of the PDE solutions in terms of the coverage of the reference PDE solutions (the percentage of nodes where the reference solution is within the confidence interval predicted by the UQ methods) and log predictive probability. The DE method is found to underestimate uncertainty and introduce bias. For the nonlinear diffusion equation, we compare the KL-DNN method with the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) method and find that KL-DNN is 10% more accurate and needs less training time than the FNO method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collected under structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore, their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distance to the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensemble of trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fitting observed in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inverse physical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of the source strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations of underlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ensembles of Networks Produced from Neural Architecture Search

Neural architecture search (NAS) is a popular topic at the intersection of deep learning and high performance computing. NAS focuses on optimizing the architecture of neural networks along with their hyperparameters in order to produce networks with superior performance. Much of the focus has been on how to produce a single best network to solve a machine learning problem, but as NAS methods produce many networks that work very well, this affords the opportunity to ensemble these networks to produce an improved result. Additionally, the diversity of network structures produced by NAS drives a natural bias towards diversity of predictions produced by the individual networks. This results in an improved ensemble over simply creating an ensemble that contains duplicates of the best network architecture retrained to have unique weights.

Herron, Emily↗
DOE OSTI2021

Are 100 Ensemble Members Enough to Capture the Remote Atmospheric Response to +2°C Arctic Sea Ice Loss?

This study presents results from the Polar Amplification Multimodel Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) single-year time-slice experiments that aim to isolate the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss at global warming levels of +2°C. Using two general circulation models (GCMs), the ensemble size is increased up to 300 ensemble members, beyond the recommended 100 members. After partitioning the response in groups of 100 ensemble members, the reproducibility of the results is evaluated, with a focus on the response of the midlatitude jet streams in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Both atmosphere-only and coupled ocean–atmosphere PAMIP experiments are analyzed. Substantial differences in the midlatitude response are found among the different experiment subsets, suggesting that 100-member ensembles are still significantly influenced by internal variability, which can mislead conclusions. Despite an overall stronger response, the coupled ocean–atmosphere runs exhibit greater spread due to additional ENSO-related internal variability when the ocean is interactive. The lack of consistency in the response is true for anomalies that are statistically significant according to Student’s t and false discovery rate tests. This is problematic for the multimodel assessment of the response, as some of the spread may be attributed to different model sensitivities whereas it is due to internal variability. Here, we propose a method to overcome this consistency issue that allows for more robust conclusions when only 100 ensemble members are used.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the uncertainty of long-period return values of extreme daily precipitation

Methods for calculating return values of extreme precipitation and their uncertainty are compared using daily precipitation rates over the Western U.S. and Southwestern Canada from a large ensemble of climate model simulations. The roles of return-value estimation procedures and sample size in uncertainty are evaluated for various return periods. We compare two different generalized extreme value (GEV) parameter estimation techniques, namely L-moments and maximum likelihood (MLE), as well as empirical techniques. Even for very large datasets, confidence intervals calculated using GEV techniques are narrower than those calculated using empirical methods. Furthermore, the more efficient L-moments parameter estimation techniques result in narrower confidence intervals than MLE parameter estimation techniques at small sample sizes, but similar best estimates. It should be noted that we do not claim that either parameter fitting technique is better calibrated than the other to estimate long period return values. While a non-stationary MLE methodology is readily available to estimate GEV parameters, it is not for the L-moments method. Comparison of uncertainty quantification methods are found to yield significantly different estimates for small sample sizes but converge to similar results as sample size increases. Finally, practical recommendations about the length and size of climate model ensemble simulations and the choice of statistical methods to robustly estimate long period return values of extreme daily precipitation statistics and quantify their uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Direct evaluation of the phase diagrams of dense multicomponent plasmas by integration of the Clapeyron equations

Accurate phase diagrams of multicomponent plasmas are required for the modeling of dense stellar plasmas, such as those found in the cores of white dwarf stars and the crusts of neutron stars. Those phase diagrams have been computed using a variety of standard techniques, which suffer from physical and computational limitations. Here we present an efficient and accurate method that overcomes the drawbacks of previously used approaches. In particular, finite-size effects are avoided as each phase is calculated separately; the plasma electrons and volume changes are explicitly taken into account; and arbitrary analytic fits to simulation data as well as particle insertions are avoided. Furthermore, no simulations at “uninteresting” state conditions, i.e., away from the phase coexistence curves, are required, which improves the efficiency of the technique. The method consists of an adaptation of the so-called Gibbs-Duhem integration approach to electron-ion plasmas, where the coexistence curve is determined by direct numerical integration of its underlying Clapeyron equation. The thermodynamics properties of the coexisting phases are evaluated separately using Monte Carlo simulations in the isobaric semigrand canonical ensemble (NPT Δ μ ). We describe this Monte Carlo-based Clapeyron integration method, including its basic physical and numerical principles, our extension to electron-ion plasmas, and our numerical implementation. We illustrate its applicability and benefits with the calculation of the melting curve of dense carbon-oxygen plasmas under conditions relevant for the cores of white dwarf stars and provide analytic fits to implement this new melting curve in white dwarf models. While this work focuses on the liquid-solid phase boundary of dense two-component plasmas, a wider range of physical systems and phase boundaries are within the scope of the Clapeyron integration method, which had until now only been applied to simple model systems of neutral particles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Positive- and negative-frequency noise from an ensemble of two-level fluctuators

The analysis of charge noise based on the Bloch-Redfield treatment of an ensemble of dissipative two-level fluctuators generally results in a violation of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. The standard Markov approximation (when applied to the two-level fluctuators coupled to a bath) can be identified as the main origin of this failure. The resulting decoherence rates only involve the bath response at the fluctuator frequency, and thus completely neglect the effects of frequency broadening. A systematic and computationally convenient way to overcome this issue is to employ the spectator-qubit method: by coupling an auxiliary qubit to the two-level fluctuator ensemble, an analytical approximation for S(ω) fully consistent with the fluctuation-dissipation theorem can be obtained. We discuss the resulting characteristics of the noise which exhibits distinct behavior over several frequency ranges, including a 1/f to 1/f2 crossover with a T3 temperature dependence of the crossover frequency.

2-dimensional systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated Stellar Spectra Classification with Ensemble Convolutional Neural Network

Large sky survey telescopes have produced a tremendous amount of astronomical data, including spectra. Machine learning methods must be employed to automatically process the spectral data obtained by these telescopes. Classification of stellar spectra by applying deep learning is an important research direction for the automatic classification of high-dimensional celestial spectra. In this paper, a robust ensemble convolutional neural network (ECNN) was designed and applied to improve the classification accuracy of massive stellar spectra from the Sloan digital sky survey. We designed six classifiers which consist six different convolutional neural networks (CNN), respectively, to recognize the spectra in DR16. Then, according the cross-entropy testing error of the spectra at different signal-to-noise ratios, we integrate the results of different classifiers in an ensemble learning way to improve the effect of classification. The experimental result proved that our one-dimensional ECNN strategy could achieve 95.0% accuracy in the classification task of the stellar spectra, a level of accuracy that exceeds that of the classical principal component analysis and support vector machine model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Permafrost Region Greenhouse Gas Budgets Suggest a Weak CO 2 Sink and CH 4 and N 2 O Sources, But Magnitudes Differ Between Top-Down and Bottom-Up Methods

Large stocks of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in northern permafrost soils are vulnerable to remobilization under climate change. However, there are large uncertainties in present-day greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets. We compare bottom-up (data-driven upscaling and process-based models) and top-down (atmospheric inversion models) budgets of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) as well as lateral fluxes of C and N across the region over 2000–2020. Bottom-up approaches estimate higher land-to-atmosphere fluxes for all GHGs. Both bottom-up and top-down approaches show a sink of CO 2 in natural ecosystems (bottom-up: -29 (-709, 455), top-down: -587 (-862, -312) Tg CO 2 -C yr -1 ) and sources of CH 4 (bottom-up: 38 (22, 53), top-down: 15 (11, 18) Tg CH 4 -C y -1 ) and N 2 O (bottom-up: 0.7 (0.1, 1.3), top-down: 0.09 (-0.19, 0.37) Tg N 2 O-N yr -1 ). The combined global warming potential of all three gases (GWP-100) cannot be distinguished from neutral. Over shorter timescales (GWP-20), the region is a net GHG source because CH 4 dominates the total forcing. The net CO 2 sink in Boreal forests and wetlands is largely offset by fires and inland water CO 2 emissions as well as CH 4 emissions from wetlands and inland waters, with a smaller contribution from N 2 O emissions. Priorities for future research include the representation of inland waters in process-based models and the compilation of process-model ensembles for CH 4 and N 2 O. Discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down methods call for analyses of how prior flux ensembles impact inversion budgets, more and well-distributed in situ GHG measurements and improved resolution in upscaling techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 – is a high-profile metric for quantifying the Earth system's response to human-induced climate change. A widely applied approach to estimating the ECS is the “Gregory method” (Gregory et al., 2004), which uses an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression between the net radiative flux, N, and surface air temperature anomalies, ΔT, from a 150 year experiment in which atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are quadrupled. The ECS is determined by extrapolating the linear fit to N=0, i.e. the ΔT-intercept, indicating the point at which the system is back in equilibrium. This method has been used to compare ECS estimates across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles and will likely be a key diagnostic for CMIP7. Despite its widespread application, there is little consistency or transparency between studies in how the climate model data is processed prior to the regression, leading to potential discrepancies in ECS estimates. We identify 32 alternative data processing pathways, varying by differences in global mean weighting, net radiative flux variable, anomaly calculation method, and linear regression fit. Using 44 CMIP6 models, we systematically assess the impact of these choices on ECS estimates and calculate uncertainty ranges using two bootstrap approaches. While the inter-model ECS range is insensitive to the data processing pathway, individual outlier models exhibit notable differences. Approximating a model's native grid cell area (if irregular) with cosine of the latitude can decrease the ECS by 11 %, the choice of N-variable can change the ECS by 6 %, and some anomaly calculation methods can introduce spurious temporal correlations in the processed data. Beyond data processing choices, we also evaluate an alternative linear regression method – total least squares (TLS) – which has a more statistically robust basis than OLS. However, for consistency with previous literature, and given TLS may reduce the ECS compared to OLS (by up to 24 %), thereby making a known bias in the Gregory method worse, we do not feel there is sufficient clarity to recommend a transition to TLS in all cases. To improve reproducibility and comparability in future studies, we recommend a standardised Gregory method: weighting the global mean by cell area, using the top of the atmosphere (as opposed to the top of model) N-variable, and calculating anomalies by first applying a rolling average to the preindustrial control timeseries then subtracting from the raw CO 2 quadrupling experiment. This approach accounts for model drift while reducing noise in the data to best meet the pre-conditions of the linear regression. While CMIP6 results of the multi-model mean ECS appear insensitive to these processing choices, similar assumptions may not hold for CMIP7, underscoring the need for standardised data preparation in future climate sensitivity assessments.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗